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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Bench-Scale Development of Promoted High-Capacity Structured Sorbents (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop high-capacity structured sorbent capable of achieving low CO 2 removal from air. The sorbent framework consists of an amine-functionalized onto hydrophobic polymer backbone with an added promoter. The functionalized amine provides high CO 2 capacity and adsorption rates and the polymer backbone to reduce water uptake. For the sorbent development, multiple functionalized amines and promoters were assessed to select a candidate that achieved high CO 2 capacity, high adsorption rate, and high stability. A sorbent-coated filter design was selected as the structured sorbent, which provides high sorbent loading capacity and contains an electrically conductive nonwoven filter substrate that can be Joule-heated to provide efficient utilization of available electricity for sorbent regeneration. A commercial partner operated a pilot filter manufacturing line to produce the filter panels coated with the developed sorbent. A 1 kg CO 2 /day bench unit was designed and fabricated to test the structured filter sorbent. The key achievements from the structured sorbent development activity were demonstrating that existing filter industrial-scale processes can be used for manufacturing Susteon’s structured sorbent and completing a proof-of-concept demonstration of the commercially manufactured structured sorbent filters for CO 2 capture from air with direct, Joule-heated regeneration. A techno-economic assessment with sensitivity analysis was conducted on a 100,000 TPY facility with 85% operating capacity. Through sorbent optimization and process design improvements, it is estimated that the cost of capture was reduced from $\$$349/tCO 2 to $\$$241/tCO 2 . The TEA projects further reductions to $165/tCO 2 through enhancements in CO 2 adsorption rate and sorbent capacity and reducing manufacturing and scale up risks. A life cycle analysis was conducted on the same 100,000 TPY facility and confirmed that the facility’s electricity demand drives its greenhouse gas impact. It was determined that electricity supplied through the current grid mix would result in net-positive CO 2 emissions and that achieving net-negative emissions is only possible by powering the system with renewable electricity or fossil fuel sources equipped with carbon capture and sequestration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Process Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of the Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Biomass

This work describes the process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the modular SPOC power plant for biomass firing and coal-biomass co-firing. Two Rankine cycles were considered: a supercritical steam cycle (242 bar, 593°C, 593°C) with 550 MWe net output and a subcritical cycle (166 bar, 566°C, 566°C) with 200 MWe net output. For both cases, 95% carbon capture was modeled, and hybrid poplar biomass was chosen to generate carbon-negative power. In addition, the supercritical 500 MWe case included a 25% biomass co-firing (carbon neutral) case. For both cycles, a 100% Powder River Basin coal firing case was used for comparison purposes. In the SPOC process, oxygen is produced via a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) and the heat generated from the compression of air is integrated into the steam cycle and utilized for boiler feed water pre-heating. Unique to the SPOC process, the boilers are pressurized and arranged in a series-parallel configuration, with minimized flue gas recirculation. The flue gas is cooled and scrubbed in the direct-contact cooler (DCC) column, and the moisture in the flue gas is condensed, leaving the bottom of the DCC at a sufficiently high temperature such that it can be used for boiler feed water pre-heating, improving plant thermal efficiency. Following drying and purification, CO2 in the flue gas is at the purity required for storage or utilization. The performance data were obtained from process modelling via Aspen Plus®. The stream data from Aspen Plus® were used as an input for the AACE Class 5 cost study. Ultimately, the capital costs, Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), and cost of CO2 captured and avoided were obtained. The HHV efficiency of the carbon negative 550 MWe supercritical SPOC case (34.8%) was clearly above those reported by NETL for the BECCS baseline cases of supercritical pulverized coal with capture (B12B, 31.5%) and the 49% biomass co-firing case with capture (PA3, 29.2%). The HHV efficiency of the carbon-negative subcritical plant is also higher than the subcritical baseline PC plant with capture (case B11B.95) presented by NETL (32% vs 29.7%). The LCOE for the SPOC 100% biomass case was similar to the LCOE for the BECCS 49% biomass with carbon capture case ($147/MWh), and the SPOC carbon neutral case LCOE was lower ($110/MWh) than the cost for the NETL baseline SC coal firing case with 90% carbon capture ($114/MWh).

Magalhaes, Duarte↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization for Brine Valorization from Brackish Water Desalination

This poster presents preliminary results from a superstructure optimization framework developed to identify cost-optimal brine valorization configurations for brackish water desalination plants across diverse U.S. regional feed chemistries. The study uses brackish groundwater compositions from Arizona, California, Florida, New Mexico, and Texas. Using Pyomo Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) within the WaterTAP modeling environment, the optimization framework simultaneously evaluates thousands of candidate treatment configurations, spanning nanofiltration, reverse osmosis, and chemical precipitation, to minimize the levelized cost of water (LCOW) while meeting water recovery targets and product recovery constraints. Results across eight representative feed clusters demonstrate water recovery rates of 57–87% and net LCOW values ranging from -$0.032/m³ (net revenue-positive) to $0.80/m. Notably, no single process configuration was optimal across all feed types, underscoring the necessity of feed-specific optimization. Products targeted include calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) at $0.01/kg and sodium chloride (NaCl) at $0.10/kg, both at 95% purity, with product revenues offsetting treatment costs in several scenarios. The work advances NAWI's process systems engineering capabilities for multi-configuration screening.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Molecular To Mesoscale Targeting of Oxoanions with Multi-Tasking Hosts

Achieving a better understanding of anion interactions both in solution and crystalline state was the overarching goal of this project. Anions are everywhere throughout Nature and play important roles in biological and environmental processes. They can be beneficial or deleterious or both in different situations and concentrations. For either reason it is important to have molecules that can bind anions for key needs that benefit society. However, recognition of specific anions is challenging due to the diffuse nature of their negative charge(s) as well as their various shapes and sizes. Understanding the basic properties of anions and how they interact with other molecules and ions in surrounding environments is key to selective recognition. In this project multi-tasking molecules for selective binding of targeted anions were designed to achieve cooperativity and synergism in one rather than multiple host molecules, including (1) cation:anion pair hosts for anions with charges of -2 or greater; (2) pH and redox activated hosts for on-off binding and release; and (3) multiple anion capture in extended host networks. Our design strategy was to combine the use of simple inexpensive building blocks and high yield synthetic pathways to provide economically feasible scale-up for applications. Oxoanions representing multiple shapes and charges were chosen based on having the potential for significant impact on DOE separations needs. Amide/amine-based macrocycles and urea/amine-based chelates and macrocycles with multiple hydrogen bonding sites provided the basic anion-binding frameworks. Successful multi-tasking outcomes were forthcoming in all three tasks. In Task 1, successful ion pair binding for anions with multiple charges was achieved. Furthermore, the ion pair molecules were capable of extended interactions through supramolecular intertwining, like fishing nets for capturing pools of fish (also fitting with Task 3). In Task 2, molecules were synthesized possessing on-off switches. These included a pH sensitive sensor for on-off binding of anions in general, as well as an electrochemical sensor selective for sulfate capture. Three new classes of extended anion host networks capable of binding multiple ions was a major outcome of Task 3. These systems included: anion sensitive, fluorescent organogels; channel-forming macrocycles for studying anion-water including larger macrocyclic cluster sandwiches; and, the offshoot of Task 1, fishing net ion-pair networks for higher valent anions. These strategies can be expanded in the future to other ions and molecules for a better understanding of intermolecular and interionic interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Technology Proving Ground FY-2026 Program Plan (Rev.1)

New methods of energy production and distribution are required to meet clean energy goals and demands across all U.S. energy sectors. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) initiative is enabling clean energy research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities. To date, IES demonstration programs have been limited by distributed infrastructure and a lack of large-scale facilities to accommodate industry-scale research of Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 6-8 technologies. The IES initiative plans to eliminate these constraints by establishing a new research complex at INL known as the Energy Technology Proving Ground (Proving Ground) to be led by the Energy and Environment Science and Technology Directorate. The Energy and Environment Science and Technology (EES&T) directorate, one of five Idaho National Laboratory (INL) RD&D organizations, focuses on clean energy technologies that anchor the industry-enabling research of the Proving Ground. The Proving Ground will combine diverse clean energy systems into lean integrated test bed of independent multiscale capabilities available to the government and commercial industries to perform research; and will enable INL’s goal of becoming a Net-Zero entity by 2031. This program encompasses existing and new research space at both the in-town Research and Education Campus (REC) and the Arco desert site (the Site). The Proving Ground will support the maturation of IES technologies from TRL 1 through 8 by providing the infrastructure and capabilities needed to sustain a continuum of RD&D from basic science to industry-scale. To establish The Proving Ground and meet INL’s net-zero goals by 2031, nine research program areas have been identified within the IES initiative that require expanded and new capital infrastructure. This program plan provides guidance for establishing the Proving Ground at the Site for plug-and-play pilot testing and proofing of integrated energy system functionality including fission and renewable energy sources for industry driven application platforms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of large-scale, 3D Printed high temperature ceramic material

Through this collaborative effort, a new 3D printing platform for ceramics called laser-induced slip casting (LIS) was explored and developed for improving the processing and manufacture of silicon carbide (SiC), a high temperature ceramic material. This method prints layers of ceramic slips/slurries with subsequent selective-laser heating to dry each layer to build a 3D structure. The completed and dried part is then sintered. This manufacturing process is inherently lower cost than alternative ceramic printing methods such as binder jet technology or stereolithography when it comes to the feedstock material but is more expensive than robocasting or direct ink writing. However, it has the potential to make more controlled parts with less defects compared to robocasting. The largest cost is the heating source for the printer. With this technique, there is potential to make large ceramic parts in a near-net shape. Further, there is no known commercial manufacturing of 3D printed ceramics that creates a large range of different high-density ceramics at large scale. The goals and outcomes for the development of the new printing technology were: 1) assessing the technology with alumina by characterizing coupons, 2) printing and sintering of silicon carbide (SiC), and 3) characterization and properties testing of materials printed and a scale-up of SiC part(s). Through this collaborative project, it was sought to provide the best solution to achieving highly dense and near-net shaped ceramic parts at large scale and reduced cost. The goal was to produce high density sintered materials for applications in defense, energy generating systems, armor, and wear parts using 3D printing methods. Variables including powder particle sizes, dispersant molecular weights (MWs), binders, printing parameters, and post processing were explored as well as the characterization of the physical properties (add specifics here).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Interactive Hydropower Generation Map

This interactive map shows the spatial distribution and temporal trends of net generation for hydropower facilities in the U.S., as included in the Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA) Net Generation Plant Database.

Schmidt, Erik [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2024

RectifHyd Version 2.0: Historical and counterfactual-climatological hydropower monthly generation totals for CONUS plants, 1980 – 2019

This dataset will contain the following files: - RectifHydV2.zip – the RectifHydV2 dataset, split into two files: o RectifHydV2_Actual_MWh.csv: Estimated actual monthly net generation from 590 Hydropower Plants (>10MW nameplate) in CONUS, 1980 – 2019 o RectifHydV2_Counterfactual_MWh.csv: Counterfactual (climate-only) monthly net generation from 590 Hydropower Plants (>10MW nameplate) in CONUS, 1980 – 2019 - RectifHydV2_code.zip: Full data processing pipeline, coded using R {targets} framework. This is a snapshot release (v1.0) of the code repository stored at https://code.ornl.gov/turnersw/rectifhydv2 - RectifHydV2_inputs.zip: Complete set of input data used to create RectifHydV2, organized for direct entry into “/data/” directory of the RectifHydV2 reproducible data pipeline - RectifHydV2_misc.zip: - RectifHydV2_dailyRelease.csv

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Approaches for CO 2 Sequestration as Solid Carbon Products

The growing global climate crisis linked to the rising atmospheric CO 2 levels calls for urgent and innovative solutions. Fixing CO 2 as valuable solid carbon products, such as carbon nanofibers or nanotubes (CNFs or CNTs), offers a promising way to potentially achieve net-negative CO 2 emissions. However, direct CO 2 -to-solid carbon faces significant thermodynamic and kinetic constraints, especially under mild reaction conditions. This mini-review compares three emerging approaches for CO 2 conversion into solid carbon: 1) using molten salt at high temperatures to produce CNFs or CNTs, 2) converting CO 2 to amorphous carbon with pyrophoric liquid metals at near room temperature, and 3) employing an electrocatalytic-thermocatalytic tandem process to produce CNFs at relatively mild temperatures. We examine the underlying principles, thermodynamic driving forces, and recent advances of each approach, and discuss the challenges and opportunities in catalyst development, reactor design, and energy management. We aim to highlight CO 2 fixation, facilitate net-negative CO 2 emissions, and stimulate more innovations for both environmental and economic benefits.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Low-Carbon Fuels and Carbon Capture in Decarbonizing the U.S. Clinker Manufacturing for Cement Production: CO2 Emissions Reduction Potentials

Low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources can play a vital role in the decarbonization of clinker production in cement manufacturing. Fuel switching with renewable natural gas, green hydrogen, and biomass can provide a low-carbon energy source for the high-temperature process heat during the pyroprocessing steps of clinker production. However, up to 60% of CO2 emissions from clinker production are attributable to process-related CO2 emissions, which will need the simultaneous implementation of other decarbonization technologies, such as carbon capture. To evaluate the potential of fuel switching and carbon capture technologies in decarbonizing the cement industry, a study of the facility-level CO2 emissions is necessary. This study evaluates the potential for using a single low-carbon fuel as an energy source in clinker production for cement manufacturing compared to conventional clinker production (which uses a range of fuel mixes). In addition, conventional carbon capture (operated with natural gas-based steam for solvent regeneration) and electrified carbon capture configurations were designed and assessed for net-zero emission targets. Carbon emissions reductions with and without biogenic emissions credits were analyzed to ascertain their impact on the overall carbon accounting. Results show that carbon emissions intensity of cement can vary from 571 to 784 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement without carbon capture and from 166.33 to 438.66 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement with carbon capture. We find that when biogenic carbon credits are considered, cement production with a sustainably grown biomass as fuel source coupled with conventional carbon capture can lead to a net-negative emission cement (−271 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement), outperforming an electrified capture design (35 kgCO2eq/metric ton of cement). The carbon accounting for the Scope 1, 2, and biogenic emissions conducted in this study is aimed at helping researchers and industry partners in the cement and concrete sector make an informed decision on the choice of fuel and decarbonization strategy to adopt.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Partitioning of Diurnal Stem CO 2 Efflux into Local Stem Respiration and Xylem Transport Processes

The apparent respiratory quotient (ARQ) of tree stems, defined as the ratio of net stem CO 2 efflux (E S_CO2 ) to net stem O 2 influx (E S_O2 ), offers insights into the balance between local respiratory CO 2 production and CO 2 transported via the xylem. Traditional static chamber methods for measuring ARQ can introduce artifacts and obscure natural diurnal variations. Here, we employed an open flow-through stem chamber with ambient air coupled with cavity ring-down spectrometry, which uses the molecular properties of CO 2 and O 2 molecules to continuously measure E S_CO2 , E S_O2 , and ARQ, at the base of a California cherry tree (Prunus ilicifolia) during the 2024 growing season. Measurements across three stem chambers over 3–11-day periods revealed strong correlations between E S_CO2 and E S_O2 and mean ARQ values ranging from 1.3 to 2.9, far exceeding previous reports. Two distinct diurnal ARQ patterns were observed: daytime suppression with nighttime recovery, and a morning peak followed by gradual decline. Partitioning E S_CO2 into local respiration and xylem-transported CO 2 indicated that the latter can dominate when ARQ exceeds 2.0. Furthermore, transported CO 2 exhibited a higher temperature sensitivity than local respiration, with both processes showing declining temperature sensitivity above 20 °C. These findings underscore the need to differentiate stem CO 2 flux components to improve our understanding of whole-tree carbon cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Acoustic vs. AI-Based Satellite Leak Detection in Aging US Water Infrastructure: A Cost and Energy Savings Analysis

The aging water distribution system in the United States, constructed mainly during the 1970s with some pipes dating back 125 years, is experiencing significant deterioration leading to substantial water losses. Along with the potential for water loss savings, improvements in the distribution system by using leak detection technologies can create net energy and cost savings. In this work, a new framework has been presented to calculate the economic level of leakage within water supply and distribution systems for two primary leak detection technologies (acoustic vs. satellite). In this work, a new framework is presented to calculate the economic level of leakage (ELL) within water supply and distribution systems to support smart infrastructure in smart cities. A case study focused using water audit data from Atlanta, Georgia, compared the costs of two leak mitigation technologies: conventional acoustic leak detection and artificial intelligence–assisted satellite leak detection technology, which employs machine learning algorithms to identify potential leak signatures from satellite imagery. The ELL results revealed that conducting one survey would be optimum for an acoustic survey, whereas the method suggested that it would be expensive to utilize satellite-based leak detection technology. However, results for cumulative financial analysis over a 3-year period for both technologies revealed both to be economically favorable with conventional acoustic leak detection technology generating higher net economic benefits of USD 2.4 million, surpassing satellite detection by 50%. A broader national analysis was conducted to explore the potential benefits of US water infrastructure mirroring the exemplary conditions of Germany and The Netherlands. Achieving similar infrastructure leakage index (ILI) values could result in annual cost savings of $\$4$–$\$4.8$ billion and primary energy savings of 1.6–1.9 TWh. These results demonstrate the value of combining economic modeling with advanced leak detection technologies to support sustainable, cost-efficient water infrastructure strategies in urban environments, contributing to more sustainable smart living outcomes.

acoustic leak detection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Highly Efficient Selection of High-redshift Emission-line Galaxies for Future DESI-like Surveys with Deep Multiband Imaging

Emission-line galaxies (ELGs) are an important tracer of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) and large-scale structure at z > 1. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of using deep wide-area multiband imaging (e.g., from the Rubin Observatory) to efficiently select high-redshift ELGs. Using Hyper Suprime-Cam grizy photometry and COSMOS2020 many-band photometric redshifts, we design simple color cuts guided by a probabilistic random forest classifier to select galaxies at z = 1.1–1.6. We then empirically test and refine these color cuts using two samples of galaxies with deep spectroscopy and broad color coverage obtained with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Compared to DESI ELGs at z = 1.1–1.6, we achieve a higher redshift-measurement success rate (89% versus 69%), a much higher correct redshift-range success rate (84% versus 34%), and a far higher net surface density yield (1372 deg −2 versus 660 deg −2 ). Combining our sample with current DESI ELGs would increase the net ELG number density by a factor of ∼2.5, moving it out of the shot-noise limited regime and reducing the uncertainties on the BAO scale parameter at z = 1.1–1.6 by a factor of ∼2 at the highest redshifts. We also test selections using shallower photometry and obtain qualitatively similar results.

Salcedo Hernandez, Yoquelbin [University of Pittsb↗
DOE OSTI2025

ML-driven Strong Lens Discoveries: Down to θ E ~ $0^{_{''}}_{^.}03$ and M halo < 10 11 M ⊙

We present results on extending the strong lens discovery space down to much smaller Einstein radii ( θ E ≲ $0^{_{''}}_{^.}03$) and much lower halo mass (M halo < 10 11 M ⊙ ) through the combination of JWST observations and machine learning (ML) techniques. First, we forecast detectable strong lenses with JWST using CosmoDC2 as the lens catalog, and a source catalog down to 29th magnitude. By further incorporating the VELA hydrodynamical simulations of high-redshift galaxies, we simulate strong lenses. We train a ResNet on these images, achieving near-100% completeness and purity for “conventional” strong lenses ( θ E ≳ $0^{_{''}}_{^.}05$), applicable to JWST, the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), the Roman Space Telescope, and Euclid VIS. For the first time, we also search for very low halo mass strong lenses (M halo < 10 11 M ⊙ ) in simulations, with θ E << $0^{_{''}}_{^.}05$, down to the best resolution ($0^{_{''}}_{^.}03$) and depth (10,000 s) limits of JWST using ResNet. A U-Net model is employed to pinpoint these small lenses in images, which are otherwise virtually impossible for human detection. Our results indicate that JWST can find ∼17/deg 2 such low-halo-mass lenses, with the locations of ∼1.1/deg 2 of these detectable by the U-Net at ∼100% precision (and ∼7.0/deg 2 at a 99.0% precision). To validate our model for finding “conventional” strong lenses, we apply it to HST images, discovering two new strong lens candidates previously missed by human classifiers in a crowdsourcing project (E. O. Garvin et al. 2022). This study demonstrates the (potentially “superhuman”) advantages of ML combined with current and future space telescopes for detecting conventional, and especially, low-halo-mass strong lenses, which are critical for testing cold dark matter models.

Silver, Ethan [Harvard University, Cambridge, MA (↗