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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Lung, Laryngeal and Other Respiratory Cancer Incidence among Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors: An Updated Analysis from 1958 through 2009

The Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors is comprised of a large, population-based cohort offering one of the best opportunities to study the relationship between exposure to radiation and incidence of respiratory cancers. Risks of lung, laryngeal and other cancers of the respiratory system were evaluated among 105,444 LSS subjects followed from 1958 to 2009. During this period, we identified 2,446 lung, 180 laryngeal and 115 other respiratory (trachea, mediastinum and other ill-defined sites) first primary incident cancer cases. Ten additional years of follow-up, improved radiation dose estimates, revised smoking data, and updated migration information were then used to investigate the joint effects of radiation and smoking using Poisson regression methods. For nonsmokers, the sexaveraged excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) for lung cancer (at age 70 after radiation exposure at age 30) was estimated as 0.81 (95% CI: 0.51, 1.18) with a female-to-male ratio of 2.83. There was no evidence of curvature in the radiation dose-response relationship overall or by sex. Lung cancer risks increased with pack-years of smoking and decreased with time since quitting smoking at any level of radiation exposure. Similar to the previously reported study, which followed cohort members through 1999, the ERR/Gy for lung cancer was significantly higher for low-to-moderate smokers than for heavy smokers, with little evidence of any radiation-associated excess risk in heavy smokers. Of 2,446 lung cancer cases, 113 (5%) could be attributed to radiation exposure. Of the 1,165 lung cancer cases occurring among smokers, 886 (76%) could be attributed to smoking. While there was little evidence of a radiation effect for laryngeal cancer, a nonsignificantly elevated risk of other respiratory cancers was observed. However, significant smoking effects were observed for both laryngeal (ERR per 50 pack-years ¼ 23.57; 95% CI: 8.44, 71.05) and other respiratory cancers (ERR per 50 pack-years¼1.21; 95% CI: 0.10, 3.25)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Durable Airtightness in Single-Family Dwellings - Field Measurementsand Analysis

Here, durability of the building envelope is important to new homes that are increasingly built with improved levels of airtightness. It is also important to weatherized homes such that energy savings from retrofit measures, such as air sealing, are persistent. This paper presents a comparison of air leakage measurements collected in November 2013 through March 2014, with two sets of prior data collected between 2001-2003 from 17 new homes located near Atlanta, GA, and 17 homes near Boise, ID that were weatherized in 2007- 2008. The purpose of the comparison is to determine if there are changes to the airtightness of building envelopes over time. The air leakage increased in all but one of the new homes, with a mean increase of about 25%. The weatherized homes also showed an increase in the mean air leakage (12%). A regression analysis was performed to describe the relationship between prior and current measurements in terms of normalized leakage (NL). The best estimate of the ageing factor predicts a 15% increase in NL over ten years. Further analysis using ResDB data (LBNL’s Residential Diagnostic Database) showed the expected changes in air leakage if ageing were modelled. These results imply the need to examine the causes of increased leakage and methods to avoid them. This increase in leakage with time should be accounted for in long-term population-wide energy savings estimates, such as those used in ratings or energy savings programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Durable Airtightness in Single-Family Dwellings: Field Measurements

Durability of building envelope is important to new homes that are increasingly built with improved levels of airtightness. It is also important to weatherized homes such that energy savings from retrofit measures, such as air sealing, are persistent. We presented a comparison of air leakage measurements collected in November 2013 through March 2014, with two sets of prior data collected between 2001-2003 from 17 new homes located near Atlanta, GA, and 17 homes near Boise, ID that were weatherized in 2007-2008. The purpose of the comparison is to determine if there are changes to the airtightness of building envelopes over time. The air leakage increased in all but one of the new homes, with a mean increase of about 25%. The weatherized homes also showed an increase in the mean air leakage (12%). We performed a regression analysis to describe the relationship between prior and current measurements in terms of normalized leakage (NL). The best estimate of the aging factor predicts a 15% increase in NL over ten years. Further analysis using ResDB data (LBNL’s Residential Diagnostic Database) showed the expected changes in air leakage if aging were modeled. These results imply that we should examine the causes of increased leakage and methods to avoid them. This increase in leakage with time should be accounted for in long-term population-wide energy savings estimates, such as those used in ratings or energy savings programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2011

Can Functional Cardiac Age be Predicted from ECG in a Normal Healthy Population

In a normal healthy population, we desired to determine the most age-dependent conventional and advanced ECG parameters. We hypothesized that changes in several ECG parameters might correlate with age and together reliably characterize the functional age of the heart. Methods: An initial study population of 313 apparently healthy subjects was ultimately reduced to 148 subjects (74 men, 84 women, in the range from 10 to 75 years of age) after exclusion criteria. In all subjects, ECG recordings (resting 5-minute 12-lead high frequency ECG) were evaluated via custom software programs to calculate up to 85 different conventional and advanced ECG parameters including beat-to-beat QT and RR variability, waveform complexity, and signal-averaged, high-frequency and spatial/spatiotemporal ECG parameters. The prediction of functional age was evaluated by multiple linear regression analysis using the best 5 univariate predictors. Results: Ignoring what were ultimately small differences between males and females, the functional age was found to be predicted (R2= 0.69, P < 0.001) from a linear combination of 5 independent variables: QRS elevation in the frontal plane (p<0.001), a new repolarization parameter QTcorr (p<0.001), mean high frequency QRS amplitude (p=0.009), the variability parameter % VLF of RRV (p=0.021) and the P-wave width (p=0.10). Here, QTcorr represents the correlation between the calculated QT and the measured QT signal. Conclusions: In apparently healthy subjects with normal conventional ECGs, functional cardiac age can be estimated by multiple linear regression analysis of mostly advanced ECG results. Because some parameters in the regression formula, such as QTcorr, high frequency QRS amplitude and P-wave width also change with disease in the same direction as with increased age, increased functional age of the heart may reflect subtle age-related pathologies in cardiac electrical function that are usually hidden on conventional ECG.

Schlegel, Todd↗
NASA NTRS1973

Cosmic-ray exposure history of North Ray and South Ray material

Cosmic-ray exposure ages for two breccias, 68815 and 69935, in the vicinity of South Ray Crater give consistent values of 2.0 plus or minus 0.2 m.y. when measured by the Kr-81-Kr, Na-22-Ne, and particle track methods. These also agree with estimates of exposure ages made by others using microcrater counts on six rocks in the same vicinity, including 69935. It is likely that this represents the age of South Ray Crater. Soils from stations close to South Ray Crater appear to be mature, well-irradiated materials containing little, if any, of a 2 m.y. component. Reviewing various lines of evidence, it is concluded that there are no compelling reasons to believe that so-called South Ray soils contain a large fraction of South Ray ejecta. However, if they do contain such ejecta, this material must have been well irradiated in situ prior to being thrown out in the South Ray event. A chip from a large boulder on the rim of North Ray Crater gives a Kr-81-Kr age of 50.6 plus or minus 3.8 m.y. Similar ages are found by the Na-22-Ne and the particle track methods. The agreement of this result with other data on large North Ray boulders fixes the age of North Ray Crater as 50 m.y.

Behrmann, C.↗
DOE OSTI2016

SOLAR WIND COLLISIONAL AGE FROM A GLOBAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS SIMULATION

Simple estimates of the number of Coulomb collisions experienced by the interplanetary plasma to the point of observation, i.e., the “collisional age”, can be usefully employed in the study of non-thermal features of the solar wind. Usually these estimates are based on local plasma properties at the point of observation. Here we improve the method of estimation of the collisional age by employing solutions obtained from global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulations. This enables evaluation of the complete analytical expression for the collisional age without using approximations. The improved estimation of the collisional timescale is compared with turbulence and expansion timescales to assess the relative importance of collisions. The collisional age computed using the approximate formula employed in previous work is compared with the improved simulation-based calculations to examine the validity of the simplified formula. We also develop an analytical expression for the evaluation of the collisional age and we find good agreement between the numerical and analytical results. Finally, we briefly discuss the implications for an improved estimation of collisionality along spacecraft trajectories, including Solar Probe Plus.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Brain ageing in schizophrenia: evidence from 26 international cohorts via the ENIGMA Schizophrenia consortium

Schizophrenia (SZ) is associated with an increased risk of life-long cognitive impairments, age-related chronic disease, and premature mortality. We investigated evidence for advanced brain ageing in adult SZ patients, and whether this was associated with clinical characteristics in a prospective meta-analytic study conducted by the ENIGMA Schizophrenia Working Group. The study included data from 26 cohorts worldwide, with a total of 2803 SZ patients (mean age 34.2 years; range 18–72 years; 67% male) and 2598 healthy controls (mean age 33.8 years, range 18–73 years, 55% male). Brain-predicted age was individually estimated using a model trained on independent data based on 68 measures of cortical thickness and surface area, 7 subcortical volumes, lateral ventricular volumes and total intracranial volume, all derived from T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Deviations from a healthy brain ageing trajectory were assessed by the difference between brain-predicted age and chronological age (brain-predicted age difference [brain-PAD]). On average, SZ patients showed a higher brain-PAD of +3.55 years (95% CI: 2.91, 4.19; I 2 = 57.53%) compared to controls, after adjusting for age, sex and site (Cohen’s d = 0.48). Among SZ patients, brain-PAD was not associated with specific clinical characteristics (age of onset, duration of illness, symptom severity, or antipsychotic use and dose). This large-scale collaborative study suggests advanced structural brain ageing in SZ. Longitudinal studies of SZ and a range of mental and somatic health outcomes will help to further evaluate the clinical implications of increased brain-PAD and its ability to be influenced by interventions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Brain‐age prediction: Systematic evaluation of site effects, and sample age range and size

Abstract Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain‐age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain‐age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain‐age models pre‐trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain‐age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre‐trained brain‐age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best‐performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain‐age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5–90 years; 53.59% female). The pre‐trained models were tested for cross‐dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8–80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9–25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age‐bins (5–40 and 40–90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain‐age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain ( https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2 ), an open‐science, web‐based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying radiation quality for space relevant radiation types: Fitting excess risk models to three combined HZE-irradiated mouse datasets

Radiation health risks are predominantly derived from low linear energy transfer (LET) terrestrial exposures; however, space radiation includes exposure to high-LET and high-charge, high-energy (HZE) particles. Accurately quantifying the differences in radiation quality between the space and terrestrial radiation environments is important for assessing and predicting health risks for astronauts. Weil et al. 2009 and 2014 used two different inbred mouse strains to study differences in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tumorigenesis after exposures to low- and high- LET radiation. More recently, Edmundson et al. 2020 provided valuable new tumor data in outbred mice that were exposed to low- and high-LET radiation. The present study aims to rigorously investigate a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor by leveraging the HCC tumor data from Weil et al. 2009, Weil et al. 2014, and Edmundson et al. 2020. The three experiments were similarly designed, allowing the raw data to be combined into a pooled dataset to estimate excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models using Bayesian Poisson regression. These effect estimates from the pooled data provide greater power to calculate a data driven RBE. Extensive sensitivity analyses test the robustness of RBE estimates to various model assumptions. The following questions will be explored through the sensitivity analyses: • Is the shape of the dose response different for low-LET radiation and HZE radiation, indicating that RBE is a function of dose? • Does attained age modify the effect estimates differently for low-LET radiation and HZE radiation, indicating RBE is a function of attained age? • Are the effect estimates and RBE estimates different for inbred mouse strains and outbred mouse strains? • Do assumptions about differences in ERR models and EAR models change the estimated RBE? Additional studies would be needed to validate the findings from these exploratory analyses.

Lori J. Chappell↗
DOE OSTI2024

AstroCLIP: a cross-modal foundation model for galaxies

ABSTRACT We present AstroCLIP, a single, versatile model that can embed both galaxy images and spectra into a shared, physically meaningful latent space. These embeddings can then be used – without any model fine-tuning – for a variety of downstream tasks including (1) accurate in-modality and cross-modality semantic similarity search, (2) photometric redshift estimation, (3) galaxy property estimation from both images and spectra, and (4) morphology classification. Our approach to implementing AstroCLIP consists of two parts. First, we embed galaxy images and spectra separately by pre-training separate transformer-based image and spectrum encoders in self-supervised settings. We then align the encoders using a contrastive loss. We apply our method to spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and images from its corresponding Legacy Imaging Survey. Overall, we find remarkable performance on all downstream tasks, even relative to supervised baselines. For example, for a task like photometric redshift prediction, we find similar performance to a specifically trained ResNet18, and for additional tasks like physical property estimation (stellar mass, age, metallicity, and specific-star-formation rate), we beat this supervised baseline by 19 per cent in terms of R2. We also compare our results with a state-of-the-art self-supervised single-modal model for galaxy images, and find that our approach outperforms this benchmark by roughly a factor of two on photometric redshift estimation and physical property prediction in terms of R2, while remaining roughly in-line in terms of morphology classification. Ultimately, our approach represents the first cross-modal self-supervised model for galaxies, and the first self-supervised transformer-based architectures for galaxy images and spectra.

Parker, Liam (ORCID:0009000749521674)↗
NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗
NASA NTRS1985

A perspective on the evidence for periodic cometary impacts on earth

Recent suggestions of periodic cometary showers coincident with mass extinctions have prompted a review of the terrestrial cratering record. From the point of view of completeness of search and crater retention, the record used to argue for statistical periodicities is incomplete and may not be representative. Estimates of crater ages are of variable accuracy and precision and, in some cases, different dating methods yield discordant results. It is possible to define through time-series analysis a number of periodicities of different magnitude (about 29, 21, 18.5, and 13.5 m.y.) and phase, depending on which craters are considered the most representative sample of the record. Arguing against periodic cometary showers is the observation that estimates of the average cratering rate in recent time and observations on Apollo bodies are equivalent. In addition, siderophile element data from impact melt rocks suggest a variety of projectile types were responsible for relatively large terrestrial craters. Given these observations, it is concluded that statements regarding periodic cometray showers are not categorical and require evidence beyond arguments based on time-series analyses of an incomplete cratering record.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Rotational dating of middle-aged stars

By the age of about 100 million years, the rotational velocity of solar mass stars becomes independent of the initial rotation rate on the main sequence, due to the strong dependence of the angular momentum loss rate on the rotation rate; once this common value is reached, the rotation velocity depends only on time and the mass of the star. Thus, the measured rotation rate of a low-mass star provides an estimate of its age when its mass is known. The observed rotation periods of low-mass stars in the Hyades are used to test this conclusion and to check the validity of the theoretical angular momentum loss rates. Adapting the magnetic braking model of Kawaler (1988), the angular momentum loss rate is integrated to derive a relation between rotation period and age, and this relation is converted to a period-age-color relation using simple stellar models. Using this method, a mean rotational age for the Hyades is obtained which is in close agreement with the age determined by isochrone fitting.

Kawaler, Steven D.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Problems in the interpretation of lunar mare stratigraphy and relative ages indicated by ejecta from small impact craters

The numbers of large ejecta blocks in excess of several meters in diameter ('blockiness') around the rims of small craters in southeastern Mare Serenitatis exceed those around similar craters in southern Mare Imbrium (and some other regions) at all but the final stages of crater degradation. Terrestrial explosion crater analogs, studies of impact processes, and a layered mare model suggest that the nature of the layering in the subsurface, including lavas, ejecta and buried regolith horizons, could account for the variable blockiness of crater ejecta and, possibly, for some variation in crater size-frequency distributions. Such effects would limit the reliability and utility of counting postmare craters for the purpose of estimating the relative ages of mare surfaces. Similarly, comparisons of the effects of progressive degradation on small impact craters to determine relative or absolute ages of individual craters may be limited by the influence of stratigraphy on ejecta fragment size distributions, which would in turn affect micrometeorite erosion rates and regolith production models.

Young, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Banyan. VIII. New low-mass stars and brown dwarfs with candidate circumstellar disks

We present the results of a search for new circumstellar disks around low-mass stars and brown dwarfs with spectral types >K5 that are confirmed or candidate members of nearby young moving groups. Our search input sample was drawn from the BANYAN surveys of Malo et al. and Gagné et al. Two Micron All-Sky Survey and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer data were used to detect near- to mid-infrared excesses that would reveal the presence of circumstellar disks. A total of 13 targets with convincing excesses were identified: 4 are new and 9 were already known in the literature. The new candidates are 2MASS J05010082–4337102 (M4.5), J08561384–1342242 (M8γ), J12474428–3816464 (M9γ), and J02265658–5327032 (L0δ); they are candidate members of the TW Hya (∼10±3 Myr), Columba (∼42{sub −4}{sup +6} Myr), and Tucana-Horologium (∼45±4 Myr) associations, with masses of 120 and 13–18 M{sub Jup}. The M8–L0 objects in Columba and Tucana-Horologium are potentially among the first substellar disk systems aged ∼40 Myr. Estimates of the new candidates’ mean disk temperatures and fractional luminosities are in the ranges ∼135--520 K and 0.021--0.15, respectively. New optical spectroscopy of J0501–4337 reveals strong Hα emission, possibly indicating ongoing accretion, provides a detection of lithium absorption, and shows a radial velocity measurement that is consistent with a membership to Columba. We also present a near-infrared spectrum of J0226–5327 that reveals Paschen β emission and shows signs of low surface gravity, consistent with accretion from a disk and a young age.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributed State Estimation Over Time-Varying Graphs: Exploiting the Age-of-Information

Here, we study the problem of designing a distributed observer for an LTI system over a time-varying communication graph. The limited existing work on this topic imposes various restrictions either on the observation model or on the sequence of communication graphs. In contrast, we propose a single-time-scale distributed observer that works under mild assumptions. Specifically, our communication model only requires strong-connectivity to be preserved over non-overlapping, contiguous intervals that are even allowed to grow unbounded over time. We show that under suitable conditions that bound the growth of such intervals, joint observability is sufficient to track the state of any discrete-time LTI system exponentially fast, at any desired rate. We also develop a variant of our algorithm that is provably robust to worst-case adversarial attacks, provided the sequence of graphs is sufficiently connected over time. The key to our approach is the notion of a "freshness-index" that keeps track of the age-of-information being diffused across the network. Such indices enable nodes to reject stale estimates of the state, and, in turn, contribute to stability of the error dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2007

Estimating When the Antarctic Ozone Hole Will Recover

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-21 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We estimate that the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of size decrease in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. Estimates of the ozone hole's recovery from models reveal important differences that will be discussed.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Estimating when the Antarctic Ozone Hole will Recover

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-2 1 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international a'greements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We estimate that the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of size decrease in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. Estimates of the ozone hole's recovery from models reveal important differences that will be discussed.

Newman, Paul A.↗