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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) for full engineering models by solving probability density function (PDF) equation

This report details a new method for propagating parameter uncertainty (forward uncertainty quantification) in partial differential equations (PDE) based computational mechanics applications. The method provides full-field quantities of interest by solving for the joint probability density function (PDF) equations which are implied by the PDEs with uncertain parameters. Full-field uncertainty quantification enables the design of complex systems where quantities of interest, such as failure points, are not known apriori. The method, motivated by the well-known probability density function (PDF) propagation method of turbulence modeling, uses an ensemble of solutions to provide the joint PDF of desired quantities at every point in the domain. A small subset of the ensemble is computed exactly, and the remainder of the samples are computed with approximation of the driving (dynamics) term of the PDEs based on those exact solutions. Although the proposed method has commonalities with traditional interpolatory stochastic collocation methods applied directly to quantities of interest, it is distinct and exploits the parameter dependence and smoothness of the dynamics term of the governing PDEs. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by applying it to two target problems: solid mechanics explicit dynamics with uncertain material model parameters, and reacting hypersonic fluid mechanics with uncertain chemical kinetic rate parameters. A minimally invasive implementation of the method for representative codes SPARC (reacting hypersonics) and NimbleSM (finite- element solid mechanics) and associated software details are described. For solid mechanics demonstration problems the method shows order of magnitudes improvement in accuracy over traditional stochastic collocation. For the reacting hypersonics problem, the method is implemented as a streamline integration and results show very good accuracy for the approximate sample solutions of re-entry flow past the Apollo capsule geometry at Mach 30.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of Algorithms for Using Particle Morphology in Pre-Detonation Nuclear Forensics

A major goal in pre-detonation nuclear forensics is to infer the processing conditions and/or facility type that produced radiological material. This review paper focuses on analyses of particle size, shape, texture (“morphology”) signatures that could provide information on the provenance of interdicted materials. For example, uranium ore concentrates (UOC or yellowcake) include ammonium diuranate (ADU), ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC), sodium diuranate (SDU), magnesium diuranate (MDU), and others, each prepared using different salts to precipitate U from solution. Once precipitated, UOCs are often dried and calcined to remove adsorbed water. The products can be allowed to react further, forming uranium oxides UO3, U3O8, or UO2 powders, whose surface morphology can be indicative of precipitation and/or calcination conditions used in their production. This review paper describes statistical issues and approaches in using quantitative analyses of measurements such as particle size and shape to infer production conditions. Statistical topics include multivariate t tests (Hotelling’s T 2 ), design of experiments, and several machine learning (ML) options including decision trees, learning vector quantization neural networks, mixture discriminant analysis, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC is emphasized as an attractive option to include the effects of model uncertainty in the selected and fitted forward model used for inferring processing conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of Type I Interferon Inhibition by Viral Proteins: Ebola Virus as a Case Study

Type I interferons (IFNs) are cytokines with both antiviral properties and protective roles in innate immune responses to viral infection. They induce an antiviral cellular state and link innate and adaptive immune responses. Yet, viruses have evolved different strategies to inhibit such host responses. One of them is the existence of viral proteins which subvert type I IFN responses to allow quick and successful viral replication, thus, sustaining the infection within a host. We propose mathematical models to characterise the intra-cellular mechanisms involved in viral protein antagonism of type I IFN responses, and compare three different molecular inhibition strategies. We study the Ebola viral protein, VP35, with this mathematical approach. Approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo, together with experimental data and the mathematical models proposed, are used to perform model calibration, as well as model selection of the different hypotheses considered. Finally, we assess if model parameters are identifiable and discuss how such identifiability can be improved with new experimental data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The chemical homogeneity of open clusters

Determining the level of chemical homogeneity in open clusters is of fundamental importance in the study of the evolution of star-forming clouds and that of the Galactic disk. Yet limiting the initial abundance spread in clusters has been hampered by difficulties in obtaining consistent spectroscopic abundances for different stellar types. Without reference to any specific model of stellar photospheres, a model for a homogeneous cluster is that it forms a one-dimensional sequence, with any differences between members due to variations in stellar mass and observational uncertainties. I present a novel method for investigating the abundance spread in open clusters that tests this one-dimensional hypothesis at the level of observed stellar spectra, rather than constraining homogeneity using derived abundances as is traditionally done. Using high-resolution APOGEE spectra for 49 giants in M67, NGC 6819, and NGC 2420 I demonstrate that these spectra form one-dimensional sequences for each cluster. With detailed forward modeling of the spectra and Approximate Bayesian Computation, I derive strong limits on the initial abundance spread of 15 elements: <0.01 (0.02) dex for C and Fe, ≲0.015 (0.03) dex for N, O, Mg, Si, and Ni, ≲0.02 (0.03) dex for Al, Ca, and Mn, and ≲0.03 (0.05) dex for Na, S, K, Ti, and V (at 68% and 95% confidence, respectively). The strong limits on C and O imply that no pollution by massive core-collapse supernovae occurred during star formation in open clusters, which, thus, need to form within ≲6 Myr. Further development of this and related techniques will bring the power of differential abundances to stars other than solar twins in large spectroscopic surveys and will help unravel the history of star formation and chemical enrichment in the Milky Way through chemical tagging.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A New Method to Measure the Post-reionization Ionizing Background from the Joint Distribution of Ly α and Ly β Forest Transmission

The amplitude of the ionizing background that pervades the intergalactic medium (IGM) at the end of the epoch of reionization provides a valuable constraint on the emissivity of the sources that reionized the universe. While measurements of the ionizing background at lower redshifts rely on a simulation-calibrated mapping between the photoionization rate and the mean transmission of the Lyα forest, at z ≳ 6 the IGM becomes increasingly opaque and transmission arises solely in narrow spikes separated by saturated Gunn–Peterson troughs. In this regime, the traditional approach of measuring the average transmission over large ~50 Mpc/h regions is less sensitive and suboptimal. In addition, the five times smaller oscillator strength of the Lyβ transition implies that the Lyβ forest is considerably more transparent at z ≳ 6, even in the presence of contamination by foreground z ~ 5 Lyα forest absorption. We present a novel statistical approach to analyze the joint distribution of transmission spikes in the cospatial z ~ 6 Lyα and Lyβ forests. Our method relies on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which circumvents the necessity of computing the intractable likelihood function describing the highly correlated Lyα and Lyβ transmission. We apply ABC to mock data generated from a large-volume hydrodynamical simulation combined with a state-of-the-art model of ionizing background fluctuations in the post-reionization IGM and show that it is sensitive to higher IGM neutral hydrogen fractions than previous techniques. As a proof of concept, we apply this methodology to a real spectrum of a z = 6.54 quasar and measure the ionizing background from 5.4 ≤ z ≤ 6.4 along this sightline with ~0.2 dex statistical uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Monte Carlo Control Loops for Cosmic Shear Cosmology with DES Year 1

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. The Monte Carlo Control Loops (MCCL) is a forward modelling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the Ultra Fast Image Generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. We present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_{\ell}$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, Point Spread Function (PSF), an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and the fast estimation of the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a non-tomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_\ell$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{\rm{IA}}$, defined as $S_8D_{\rm{IA}} = \sigma_8(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{\rm{IA}}$, where $D_{\rm{IA}}=1-0.11(A_{\rm{IA}}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{\rm{IA}}=0.895^{+0.054}_{-0.039}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60\% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

ATOMISTIC CHARACTERIZATION OF METAL-ORGANIC FRAMEWORKS FOR SUB-AMBIENT PRESSURE SWING ADSORPTION OF POST-COMBUSTION CO2 CAPTURE AND SEPARATION

Developing cost-effective and less energy-intensive carbon capture processes for dilute CO2 sources is of high interest. Adsorption-based CO2 capture such as pressure swing adsorption (PSA) is one promising approach to this challenge. PSA and other cyclic adsorption processes are materials-enabled separations that use porous adsorbents, including metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). This thesis examines post-combustion carbon capture in sub-ambient PSA, a potential route to an effective adsorption process, using MOF materials via molecular modeling. We first estimated the reproducibility of CO2 adsorption isotherm measurements in MOFs via literature meta-analysis. This chapter provides a comprehensive summary of the state of knowledge regarding CO2 adsorption in MOFs and its implications for molecular modeling of adsorption in MOFs. We then examined the upper bounds on CO2 swing capacity in sub-ambient PSA by Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation of an extensive collection of MOFs. A wide variety of MOFs was found to have swing capacity exceeding 10 mol/kg at sub-ambient temperatures provided that MOFs are appropriately selected based on their physical properties. We also assessed the capability of simple proxies for adsorbent performance and approximate models of cyclic adsorption to predict the outcomes of detailed process models of adsorption-based CO2 capture processes. To this end, we discuss the correlations between predictions from the simpler models and detailed process models. As a separate contribution, molecular modeling of chemical warfare agents (CWAs) adsorption in MOFs was analyzed. Molecular models of adsorption of CO2, CWAs or other molecules typically employ a rigid framework approximation for computational convenience. All real frameworks including MOFs, however, have intrinsic flexibility due to thermal vibrations. We examine the implications of this simple observation for quantitative predictions of the properties of adsorbed CWAs.

Park, Jongwoo↗
DOE OSTI2013

Analysis of the nuclear measurement program for an optimized BR2 core configuration

This paper presents the analysis of the results of the Nuclear Measurement Program (NMP) executed during the shut-down of cycle 05/2012 of the BR2 reactor. The aim of the NMP was to determine the properties of a reactor core load with a new configuration of the control rods and to evaluate/verify the predicted numerical results by MCNPX. The methods used for the interpretation of the measurement results include combinations of an analytical method for determination of the axial relative control rod efficiency and least square techniques. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Numerical Approximation Framework for the Stochastic Linear Quadratic Regulator on Hilbert Spaces

We present an approximation framework for computing the solution of the stochastic linear quadratic control problem on Hilbert spaces. We focus on the finite horizon case and the related differential Riccati equations (DREs). Our approximation framework is concerned with the so-called “singular estimate control systems” (Lasiecka in Optimal control problems and Riccati equations for systems with unbounded controls and partially analytic generators: applications to boundary and point control problems, 2004) which model certain coupled systems of parabolic/hyperbolic mixed partial differential equations with boundary or point control. We prove that the solutions of the approximate finite-dimensional DREs converge to the solution of the infinite-dimensional DRE. In addition, we prove that the optimal state and control of the approximate finite-dimensional problem converge to the optimal state and control of the corresponding infinite-dimensional problem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

An analytic approach to quasinormal modes for coupled linear systems

Quasinormal modes describe the ringdown of compact objects deformed by small perturbations. In generic theories of gravity that extend General Relativity, the linearized dynamics of these perturbations is described by a system of coupled linear differential equations of second order. We first show, under general assumptions, that such a system can be brought to a Schrödinger-like form. We then devise an analytic approximation scheme to compute the spectrum of quasinormal modes. We validate our approach using a toy model with a controllable mixing parameter ε and showing that the analytic approximation for the fundamental mode agrees with the numerical computation when the approximation is justified. The accuracy of the analytic approximation is at the (sub-) percent level for the real part and at the level of a few percent for the imaginary part, even when ε is of order one. Our approximation scheme can be seen as an extension of the approach of Schutz and Will [1] to the case of coupled systems of equations, although our approach is not phrased in terms of a WKB analysis, and offers a new viewpoint even in the case of a single equation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Approximate Boltzmann distributions in quantum approximate optimization

Approaches to compute or estimate the output probability distributions from the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) are needed to assess the likelihood it will obtain a quantum computational advantage. We analyze output from QAOA circuits solving 7200 random MaxCut instances, with $n$ = 14–23 qubits and depth parameter $p$ ≤ 12 and find that the average basis state probabilities follow approximate Boltzmann distributions: The average probabilities scale exponentially with their energy (cut value), with a peak at the optimal solution. Furthermore, we describe the rate of exponential scaling or effective temperature in terms of a series with a leading-order term $T$ ~ $C$ min /$n$ $\sqrt{p}$, with $C$ min the optimal solution energy. Using this scaling, we generate approximate output distributions with up to 38 qubits and find these give accurate accounts of important performance metrics in cases we can simulate exactly.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Ultra-fast computation of electronic spectra for large systems by tight-binding based simplified Tamm-Dancoff approximation (sTDA-xTB)

The computational bottleneck of the extremely fast simplified Tamm-Dancoff approximated (sTDA) time-dependent density functional theory procedure [S. Grimme, J. Chem. Phys. 138, 244104 (2013)] for the computation of electronic spectra for large systems is the determination of the ground state Kohn-Sham orbitals and eigenvalues. This limits such treatments to single structures with a few hundred atoms and hence, e.g., sampling along molecular dynamics trajectories for flexible systems or the calculation of chromophore aggregates is often not possible. The aim of this work is to solve this problem by a specifically designed semi-empirical tight binding (TB) procedure similar to the well established self-consistent-charge density functional TB scheme. The new special purpose method provides orbitals and orbital energies of hybrid density functional character for a subsequent and basically unmodified sTDA procedure. Compared to many previous semi-empirical excited state methods, an advantage of the ansatz is that a general eigenvalue problem in a non-orthogonal, extended atomic orbital basis is solved and therefore correct occupied/virtual orbital energy splittings as well as Rydberg levels are obtained. A key idea for the success of the new model is that the determination of atomic charges (describing an effective electron-electron interaction) and the one-particle spectrum is decoupled and treated by two differently parametrized Hamiltonians/basis sets. The three-diagonalization-step composite procedure can routinely compute broad range electronic spectra (0-8 eV) within minutes of computation time for systems composed of 500-1000 atoms with an accuracy typical of standard time-dependent density functional theory (0.3-0.5 eV average error). An easily extendable parametrization based on coupled-cluster and density functional computed reference data for the elements H–Zn including transition metals is described. The accuracy of the method termed sTDA-xTB is first benchmarked for vertical excitation energies of open- and closed-shell systems in comparison to other semi-empirical methods and applied to exemplary problems in electronic spectroscopy. As side products of the development, a robust and efficient valence electron TB method for the accurate determination of atomic charges as well as a more accurate calculation scheme of dipole rotatory strengths within the Tamm-Dancoff approximation is proposed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simulation of the UT inspection of planar defects using a generic GTD-Kirchhoff approach

The modeling of ultrasonic Non Destructive Evaluation often plays an important part in the assessment of detection capabilities or as a help to interpret experiments. The ultrasonic modeling tool of the CIVA platform uses semi-analytical approximations for fast computations. Kirchhoff and GTD are two classical approximations for the modeling of echoes from plane-like defects such as cracks, and they aim at taking into account two different types of physical phenomena. The Kirchhoff approximation is mainly suitable to predict specular reflections from the flaw surface, whereas GTD is dedicated to the modeling of edge diffraction. As a consequence, these two approximations have distinct and complementary validity domains. Choosing between them requires expertise and is problematic in some inspection configurations. The Physical Theory of Diffraction (PTD) was developed based on both Kirchhoff and GTD in order to combine their advantages and overcome their limitations. The theoretical basis for PTD and its integration in the CIVA modeling approach are discussed in this communication. Several results that validate this newly developed model and illustrate its advantages are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Introducing the embedded random phase approximation: H 2 dissociative adsorption on Cu(111) as an exemplar

The random phase approximation (RPA) as a means of treating electron correlation recently has been shown to outperform standard density functional theory (DFT) approximations in a variety of cases. However, the computational cost of the RPA is substantially more than DFT, especially when aiming to study extended surfaces. Properly accounting for sufficient surface ensemble size, Brillouin zone sampling, and vacuum separation of periodic images in standard periodic-planewave-based DFT code raises the cost to achieve converged results. Here, we show that sub-system embedding schemes enable use of the RPA for modeling heterogeneous reactions at reduced computational cost. Further, we explore two different embedded RPA (emb-RPA) approaches, periodic emb-RPA and cluster emb-RPA. We use the (experimentally and theoretically) well-studied H 2 dissociative adsorption on Cu(111) as our exemplar, and first perform full periodic RPA calculations as a benchmark. The full RPA results match well the semi-empirical barrier fit to experimental observables and others derived from high-level computations, e.g., from recent embedded n-electron valence second order perturbation theory [Zhao et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 16(11), 7078–7088 (2020)] and quantum Monte Carlo [Doblhoff-Dier et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 13(7), 3208–3219 (2017)] simulations. Among the two emb-RPA approaches tested, the cluster emb-RPA accurately reproduces the energy profile (maximum error of 50 meV along the reaction pathway) while reducing the computational cost by approximately two orders of magnitude. We therefore expect that the embedded cluster approach will enable wider RPA implementation in heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Embedded random phase approximation for magnetic systems: H 2 dissociative adsorption on Fe(110)

The random phase approximation (RPA), a method for treating electron correlation, has been shown to be superior to standard density functional theory (DFT) approximations in numerous cases. However, the RPA’s computational cost is substantially higher than that of DFT, particularly restricting its application to extended surfaces. The recently introduced embedded RPA (emb-RPA) approach [Wei et al., J. Chem. Phys. 159(19), 194108 (2023)] reduces this computational cost by approximately two orders of magnitude. While previous applications of emb-RPA focused on non-spin-polarized systems, here we extend the approach to ferromagnetic ones. Unlike other embedded correlated wavefunction methods, such as embedded complete active space self-consistent field theory, emb-RPA is advantageous for spin-polarized systems because the RPA is compatible with unrestricted DFT solutions, which are eigenfunctions of the spin angular momentum operator S z but not the total spin-squared operator S 2 . By applying emb-RPA with specific magnetization constraints, we achieved a speedup of two to three orders of magnitude (one order when accounting for the one-time embedding potential optimization cost) with only small errors (∼50 meV) compared to full periodic RPA. Moreover, emb-RPA significantly reduces the over-binding errors of DFT approximations. In conclusion, we anticipate that the acceleration enabled by the spin-polarized emb-RPA approach will broaden the applicability of RPA to magnetic materials.

Density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2015

Methodology comparison for gamma-heating calculations in material-testing reactors

The Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR) is a Material-Testing Reactor (MTR) under construction in the south of France at CEA Cadarache (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission). It will typically host about 20 simultaneous irradiation experiments in the core and in the beryllium reflector. These experiments will help us better understand the complex phenomena occurring during the accelerated ageing of materials and the irradiation of nuclear fuels. Gamma heating, i.e. photon energy deposition, is mainly responsible for temperature rise in non-fuelled zones of nuclear reactors, including JHR internal structures and irradiation devices. As temperature is a key parameter for physical models describing the behavior of material, accurate control of temperature, and hence gamma heating, is required in irradiation devices and samples in order to perform an advanced suitable analysis of future experimental results. From a broader point of view, JHR global attractiveness as a MTR depends on its ability to monitor experimental parameters with high accuracy, including gamma heating. Strict control of temperature levels is also necessary in terms of safety. As JHR structures are warmed up by gamma heating, they must be appropriately cooled down to prevent creep deformation or melting. Cooling-power sizing is based on calculated levels of gamma heating in the JHR. Due to these safety concerns, accurate calculation of gamma heating with well-controlled bias and associated uncertainty as low as possible is all the more important. There are two main kinds of calculation bias: bias coming from nuclear data on the one hand and bias coming from physical approximations assumed by computer codes and by general calculation route on the other hand. The former must be determined by comparison between calculation and experimental data; the latter by calculation comparisons between codes and between methodologies. In this presentation, we focus on this latter kind of bias. Nuclear heating is represented by the physical quantity called absorbed dose (energy deposition induced by particle-matter interactions, divided by mass). Its calculation with Monte Carlo codes is possible but computationally expensive as it requires transport simulation of charged particles, along with neutrons and photons. For that reason, the calculation of another physical quantity, called KERMA, is often preferred, as KERMA calculation with Monte Carlo codes only requires transport of neutral particles. However, KERMA is only an estimator of the absorbed dose and many conditions must be fulfilled for KERMA to be equal to absorbed dose, including so-called condition of electronic equilibrium. Also, Monte Carlo computations of absorbed dose still present some physical approximations, even though there is only a limited number of them. Some of these approximations are linked to the way how Monte Carlo codes apprehend the transport simulation of charged particles and the productive and destructive interactions between photons, electrons and positrons. There exists a huge variety of electromagnetic shower models which tackle this topic. Differences in the implementation of these models can lead to discrepancies in calculated values of absorbed dose between different Monte Carlo codes. The magnitude of order of such potential discrepancies should be quantified for JHR gamma-heating calculations. We consequently present a two-pronged plan. In a first phase, we intend to perform compared absorbed dose / KERMA Monte Carlo calculations in the JHR. This way, we will study the presence or absence of electronic equilibrium in the different JHR structures and experimental devices and we will give recommendations for the choice of KERMA or absorbed dose when calculating gamma heating in the JHR. In a second phase, we intend to perform compared TRIPOLI4 / MCNP absorbed dose calculations in a simplified JHR-representative geometry. For this comparison, we will use the same nuclear data library for both codes (the European library JEFF3.1.1 and photon library EPDL97) so as to isolate the effects from electromagnetic shower models on absorbed dose calculation. This way, we hope to get insightful feedback on these models and their implementation in Monte Carlo codes. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Parameterizing the Variability and Uncertainty of Wind and Solar in CEMs

We present current and improved methods for estimating the capacity value and curtailment impacts from variable generation (VG) in capacity expansion models (CEMs). The ideal calculation of these variability metrics is through an explicit co-optimized investment-dispatch model using multiple years of VG and load data. Because of data and computational limitations, existing CEMs typically approximate these metrics using a subset of all hours from a single year and/or using statistical methods, which often do not capture the tail-event impacts or the broader set of interactions between VG, storage, and conventional generators. In our proposed new methods, we use hourly generation and load values across all hours of the year to characterize the (1) contribution of VG to system capacity during high load hours, (2) the curtailment level of VG, and (3) the reduction in VG curtailment due to storage and shutdown of select thermal generators. Using CEM model outputs from a preceding model solve period, we apply these methods to exogenously calculate capacity value and curtailment metrics for the subsequent model solve period. Preliminary results suggest that these hourly methods offer improved capacity value and curtailment representations of VG in the CEM from existing approximation methods without additional computational burdens.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reducing the Cost of CCSD Basis Set Extrapolation in Ab Initio Computational Thermochemistry

Here, a series of approximations to CCSD contributions in computational model chemistries is presented in the context of kcal mol –1 , kJ mol –1 , and 20 cm –1 theoretical predictions of total atomization energies, benchmarked within the HEAT+CH 4 test suite. A specific set of circumstances where MP2, without empirical scaling, may be used as an effective intermediate in the first two of these accuracy ranges was determined. However, SDQ-MP4, a method long used in pursuit of kcal mol –1 accuracy but relatively unstudied in the subchemical accuracy community, offers significant improvement over the quality of MP2 as a basis-set intermediate at significantly reduced cost compared to CCSD. Given this, we argue for SDQ-MP4 as the de facto CCSD basis-set intermediate in sub-chemical accuracy calculations when CCSD in a desired basis set becomes unaffordable. We additionally report on a “CBS-like” scheme, where MP2 and SDQ-MP4 are used in conjunction to create a “cheap” three-part approximation of large CCSD basis set limits. The data for the CCSD approximation schemes are organized in such a way that model chemistry developers can locate an analog of their current approach for the CCSD basis set limit and explore alternative intermediates that either decrease computational cost or increase computational accuracy. We also show, for a handful of molecules, that SDQ-MP4 shows promise as an effective basis-set intermediate for harmonic and fundamental frequency computations, allowing for zero-point corrections of nearly CCSD(T)/ANO1 quality using simple composite methods that only require CCSD(T)/ANO0.

Thorpe, James H. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL↗