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At least 361 records · Page 20

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian homodyne and heterodyne tomography

Continuous-variable (CV) photonic states are of increasing interest in quantum information science, bolstered by features such as deterministic resource state generation and error correction via bosonic codes. Data-efficient characterization methods will prove critical in the fine-tuning and maturation of such CV quantum technology. Although Bayesian inference offers appealing properties—including uncertainty quantification and optimality in mean-squared error—Bayesian methods have yet to be demonstrated for the tomography of arbitrary CV states. Here we introduce a complete Bayesian quantum state tomography workflow capable of inferring generic CV states measured by homodyne or heterodyne detection, with no assumption of Gaussianity. As examples, we demonstrate our approach on experimental coherent, thermal, and cat state data, obtaining excellent agreement between our Bayesian estimates and theoretical predictions. Our approach lays the groundwork for Bayesian estimation of highly complex CV quantum states in emerging quantum photonic platforms, such as quantum communications networks and sensors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) evapotranspiration product Version 5.0: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

An accurate estimation of spatially and temporally continuous global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in the assessment of surface energy, water and carbon cycles. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) ET product Version 4.0 (v4.0) based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method was generated to estimate global terrestrial ET. However, certain uncertainty for the GLASS ET product v4.0 limits its application. In this study, we introduced the deep neural networks (DNN) merging framework to improve terrestrial ET estimation for GLASS ET product Version 5.0 (v5.0) generation by integrating five satellite-derived ET products [Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET product (MOD16), Shuttleworth–Wallace dual-source ET product (SW), Priestley–Taylor-based ET product (PT-JPL), modified satellite-based Priestley–Taylor ET product (MS-PT) and simple hybrid ET product (SIM)]. We compared the performance of DNN method against other merging methods, including GLASS ET algorithm v4.0 (BMA), the gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) method and the random forest (RF) method, based on 195 global eddy covariance (EC) flux towers covering observations from 2000 through 2015. Validations indicated that the DNN had the highest accuracy among four merging methods across different land cover types, yielding the highest average determination coefficients (R 2 , 0.62), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE, 24.1 W/m 2 ) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE, 0.77) with a of 99% confidence interval. Compared with GLASS ET algorithm v4.0, the DNN improved on the R 2 by approximately 7% (p < 0.01) and the KGE by 10%. Based on the DNN, we then generated 8-day GLASS ET product v5.0 globally with a 1 km spatial resolution from 2001 to 2015 driven by GLASS vegetation and surface net radiation (R n ) datasets and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) datasets. Finally, this global terrestrial ET product provides a valuable dataset for monitoring regional and global water resources and environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian GAN-Based False Data Injection Attack Detection in Active Distribution Grids With DERs

Advancements in information and communication technologies have revolutionized monitoring and control capabilities within smart grids. However, it also brings new vulnerabilities to data acquisition systems and state estimation functions, which attackers can subtly tamper with the measurement data through compromising the communication network. Moreover, the high penetration of renewable energy sources with the inherited characteristics of uncertainty and variability further complicates the design of effective intrusion detection systems. In this paper, a Bayesian deep learning-based approach is developed to detect cyber attacks and maintain the security of smart grids. Our method specifically addresses the prevalent issue of imbalanced data in real power systems, which arises from the predominance of normal system operations over compromised or attacked states. Employing a novel Bayesian GAN-based technique, our approach successfully discriminates between secure and compromised measurement data, even in scenarios with significant data imbalance. Furthermore, the proposed method accommodates various practical application factors, ensuring accurate intrusion detection despite the presence of measurement noise. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed detection mechanism are validated by testing on IEEE 13-node and 123-node test systems. Simulation results and comparisons with literature methods demonstrate the superiority of proposed cybersecurity solutions.

Bayesian GAN↗

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Applying Machine Learning and Bayesian Inference to Identify and Locate Moving Anthropogenic Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems, which use existing telecommunication fibers, offer high‐resolution capabilities ideal for recording anthropogenic sources. However, the complexity of urban environments and the large amount of data recorded by DAS require automated methods to efficiently detect and categorize anthropogenic sources. Here, we evaluate how well three machine learning models (k‐nearest neighbor [k‐NN], convolutional neural networks, and recurrent‐convolutional neural networks) can identify various anthropogenic sources recorded by DAS. Our findings reveal that both k‐NN and neural network methods perform well in high signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR) settings. However, their accuracy decreases at SNRs <4. We also use Kalman filtering, a form of Bayesian inference, on backprojected locations of these sources to recover locations that generally fall within standard smartphone Global Positioning System errors. By combining machine learning and Kalman filter results, we calculate a multidimensional model of moving anthropogenic sources. These results demonstrate the potential of DAS data in urban seismology for accurately identifying and locating such sources. Depending on the research objectives, these sources can be further studied or filtered out to improve the quality of seismic data for earthquake studies. Such methods provide a valuable tool for urban seismology and seismic hazard analysis.

Luckie, Thomas William [Sandia National Laboratori↗

Short-term nodal load forecasting based on machine learning techniques

This paper introduces an advanced Short-term Nodal Load Forecasting (STNLF) method that forecasts nodal load profiles for the next day in power systems, based on the combined use of three machine learning techniques. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) is employed to reduce the number of features for a single nodal load forecasting. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to capture the features of historical loads in low-dimensional space compared to the original high-dimensional load space where features are barely possible to depict. Additionally, Bayesian Ridge Regression (BRR) is utilized to decide the parameters of the prediction model from a statistics perspective. Tests based on modified PJM load data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed STNLF method compared to the state-of-the-art General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) method. Moreover, the reliability of the day-ahead Unit Commitment (UC) solution is shown to have been improved, based on the forecasted load data using the proposed STNLF method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Robustness of Deep Learning Classification to Adversarial Input on GPUs: Asynchronous Parallel Accumulation Is a Source of Vulnerability

The ability of machine learning (ML) classification models to resist small, targeted input perturbations—known as adversarial attacks—is a key measure of their safety and reliability. We show that floating-point non associativity (FPNA) coupled with asynchronous parallel programming on GPUs is sufficient to result in misclassification, without any perturbation to the input. Additionally, we show that this misclassification is particularly significant for inputs close to the decision boundary and that standard adversarial robustness results may be overestimated up to 4.6 when not considering machine-level details. We first study a linear classifier, before focusing on standard Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures and datasets used in robustness assessments. We develop a novel black-box attack using Bayesian optimization to discover external workloads that can change the instruction scheduling which bias the output of reductions on GPUs and reliably lead to misclassification. Motivated by these results, we present a new learnable permutation (LP) gradient-based approach to learning floating-point operation orderings that lead to misclassifications. The LP approach provides a worst-case estimate in a computationally efficient manner, avoiding the need to run identical experiments tens of thousands of times over a potentially large set of possible GPU states or architectures. Finally, using instrumentation-based testing, we investigate parallel reduction ordering across different GPU architectures under external background workloads, when utilizing multi-GPU virtualization, and when applying power capping. Our results demonstrate that parallel reduction ordering varies significantly across architectures under the first two conditions, substantially increasing the search space required to fully test the effects of this parallel scheduler-based vulnerability. These results and the methods developed here can help to include machine-level considerations into adversarial robustness assessments, which can make a difference in safety and mission critical applications.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif [Maxeler Technologies, a Groq↗

KMT-2016-BLG-1836Lb: A Super-Jovian Planet from a High-cadence Microlensing Field

We report the discovery of a super-Jovian planet in the microlensing event KMT-2016-BLG-1836, which was found by the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) high-cadence observations (Γ~4 hr -1 ). The planet–host mass ratio q ~ 0.004. A Bayesian analysis indicates that the planetary system is composed of a super-Jovian M{ planet =2.2 -1.1 +1.9 M J planet orbiting an M or K dwarf, M{ host =0.49 -0.25 0.38 M ⊙ , at a distance of D L =7.1 -2.4} +0.8 kpc. The projected planet–host separation is 3.5 -0.9 +1.1 au, implying that the planet is located beyond the snow line of the host star. Future high-resolution images can potentially strongly constrain the lens brightness and thus the mass and distance of the planetary system. Without considering detailed detection efficiency, selection, or publication biases, we find a potential mass-ratio desert at -3.7 ≲ log q ≲ -3.0 for the 31 published KMTNet planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

AbstractBayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) has emerged as a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios by integrating Bayesian inference with linlog rate laws. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCCs), and concentration control coefficients (CCCs) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of BMCA, guiding its application in metabolic engineering and emphasizing the need for methodological refinements.Author summaryUnderstanding how enzymes control metabolic pathways is crucial for optimizing biomanufacturing and synthetic biology applications. Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising computational method that integrates Bayesian inference with metabolic control analysis to estimate key control parameters, even in cases with limited experimental data. However, the accuracy and limitations of BMCA remain unclear. In this study, we systematically evaluate BMCA using three synthetic metabolic networks to determine how different types of physiological data impact its predictive performance. We find that BMCA requires flux and enzyme concentration data for accurate predictions, while external metabolite concentrations contribute little. Additionally, BMCA fails to predict elasticity values beyond a magnitude of 1.5 and reliably infer allosteric regulation, even when strong regulatory interactions exist. In addition, BMCA does not accurately rank metabolic control points, which may limit its utility in identifying key enzymes in engineered pathways. Our work provides practical insights into when and how BMCA can be applied, guiding future research in metabolic modeling and control analysis.

Shin, Janis (ORCID:0000000216572455)↗

Source localization for neutron imaging systems using convolutional neural networks

The nuclear imaging system at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a crucial diagnostic for determining the geometry of inertial confinement fusion implosions. The geometry is reconstructed from a neutron aperture image via a set of reconstruction algorithms using an iterative Bayesian inference approach. An important step in these reconstruction algorithms is finding the fusion source location within the camera field-of-view. Currently, source localization is achieved via an iterative optimization algorithm. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning approach for source localization. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network to predict source locations given a neutron aperture image. We show that this approach decreases computation time by several orders of magnitude compared to the current optimization-based source localization while achieving similar accuracy on both synthetic data and a collection of recent NIF deuterium–tritium shots.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Source localization for neutron imaging systems using convolutional neural networks

The nuclear imaging system at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a crucial diagnostic for determining the geometry of inertial confinement fusion implosions. The geometry is reconstructed from a neutron aperture image via a set of reconstruction algorithms using an iterative Bayesian inference approach. An important step in these reconstruction algorithms is finding the fusion source location within the camera field-of-view. Currently, source localization is achieved via an iterative optimization algorithm. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning approach for source localization. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network to predict source locations given a neutron aperture image. We show that this approach decreases computation time by several orders of magnitude compared to the current optimization-based source localization while achieving similar accuracy on both synthetic data and a collection of recent NIF deuterium–tritium shots.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Machine-learning-based inversion of nuclear responses

A microscopic description of the interaction of atomic nuclei with external electroweak probes is required for elucidating aspects of short-range nuclear dynamics and for the correct interpretation of neutrino oscillation experiments. Nuclear quantum Monte Carlo methods infer the nuclear electroweak response functions from their Laplace transforms. Inverting the Laplace transform is a notoriously ill-posed problem; and Bayesian techniques, such as maximum entropy, are typically used to reconstruct the original response functions in the quasielastic region. In this work, we present a physics-informed artificial neural network architecture suitable for approximating the inverse of the Laplace transform. Utilizing simulated, albeit realistic, electromagnetic response functions, we show that this physics-informed artificial neural network outperforms maximum entropy in both the low-energy transfer and the quasielastic regions, thereby allowing for robust calculations of electron scattering and neutrino scattering on nuclei and inclusive muon capture rates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Monte Carlo goodness-of-fit tests for degree corrected and related stochastic blockmodels

Abstract We construct Bayesian and frequentist finite-sample goodness-of-fit tests for three different variants of the stochastic blockmodel for network data. Since all of the stochastic blockmodel variants are log-linear in form when block assignments are known, the tests for the latent block model versions combine a block membership estimator with the algebraic statistics machinery for testing goodness-of-fit in log-linear models. We describe Markov bases and marginal polytopes of the variants of the stochastic blockmodel and discuss how both facilitate the development of goodness-of-fit tests and understanding of model behaviour. The general testing methodology developed here extends to any finite mixture of log-linear models on discrete data, and as such is the first application of the algebraic statistics machinery for latent-variable models.

Karwa, Vishesh↗

PINNSTRIPES (Physics-Informed Neural Network SurrogaTe for Rapidly Identifying Parameters in Energy Systems) [SWR-22-12]

Energy systems models typically take the form of complex partial differential equations which make multiple forward calculations prohibitively expensive. Fast and data-efficient construction of surrogate models is of utmost importance for applications that require parameter exploration such as design optimization and Bayesian calibration. In presence of a large number of parameters, surrogate models that capture correct dependencies may be difficult to construct with traditional techniques. The issue is addressed here with the formulation of the surrogate model constructed via Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) which capture the dependence with respect to the parameters to estimate, while using a limited amount of data. Since forward evaluations of the surrogate model are cheap, parameter exploration is made inexpensive, even when considering a large number of parameters.

Hassanaly, Malik↗

Radiation Source Localization Using Surrogate Models Constructed from 3-D Monte Carlo Transport Physics Simulations

Recent research has focused on the development of surrogate models for radiation source localization in a simulated urban domain. We employ the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code to provide high- delity simulations of radiation transport within an urban domain. The model is constructed to employ a source location (x, y, z) as input and return the estimated count rate for a set of speci ed detector locations. Because MCNP simulations are computationally expensive, we develop e cient and accurate surrogate models of the detector responses. We construct surrogate models using Gaussian processes (GP) and neural networks (NN) that we train and verify using the MCNP simulations. The trained surrogate models provide an e cient framework for Bayesian inference and experimental design. We employ Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to infer the location and intensity of an unknown source. The DRAM results yield a posterior probability distribution for the source's location conditioned on the observed detector count rates. The posterior distribution exhibits regions of high and low probability within the simulated environment identifying potential source locations. In this manner, we can quantify the source location to within at least one of these regions of high probability in the considered cases. Employing these methods, we are able to reduce the space of potential source locations by at least 60%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Investigating the effects of precise mass measurements of Ru and Pd isotopes on machine learning mass modeling

Atomic masses are a foundational quantity in our understanding of nuclear structure, astrophysics, and fundamental symmetries. The longstanding goal of creating a predictive global model for the binding energy of a nucleus remains a significant challenge, however, and prompts the need for precise measurements of atomic masses to serve as anchor points for model developments. We present precise mass measurements of neutron-rich Ru and Pd isotopes performed at the Californium Rare Isotope Breeder Upgrade facility at Argonne National Laboratory using the Canadian Penning Trap mass spectrometer. The masses of 108 Ru, 110 Ru, and 116 Pd were measured to a relative mass precision $\delta$⁢$m/m$ ≈ 10 -8 via the phase-imaging ion-cyclotron-resonance technique, and represent an improvement of approximately an order of magnitude over previous measurements. Further, these mass data were used in conjunction with the physically interpretable machine learning (PIML) model, which uses a mixture density neural network to model mass excesses via a mixture of Gaussian distributions. The effects of our new mass data on a Bayesian-updating of a PIML model are presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗