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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

2024 Nasa Lunabotics University Competition: Site Preparation With Bulk Regolith

Lunabotics provides accredited in-stitutions of higher learning students (vocational-technical, college, university) an opportunity to apply the NASA systems engineering process to design and build a prototype robot. This robot would be capable of performing the proposed operations on the Lunar sur-face in support of future Artemis mission goals. Lunabotics features a systems engineering design challenge to engage students in the next phase of hu-man space exploration supporting the Artemis missions. This two-semester event encourages students to design and build an autonomous or telerobotic robot designed to traverse the simulated Lunar surface and complete the assigned construction tasks. The number of teams accepted into this challenge is not predetermined but is based on the scores and overall quality of the Project Management Plans received and other factors.

Lunabotics↗
NASA NTRS1997

Progressive Fracture of Fiber Composite Build-Up Structures

Damage progression and fracture of built-up composite structures is evaluated by using computational simulation. The objective is to examine the behavior and response of a stiffened composite (0/ +/- 45/90)(sub s6) laminate panel by simulating the damage initiation, growth, accumulation, progression and propagation to structural collapse. An integrated computer code, CODSTRAN, was augmented for the simulation of the progressive damage and fracture of built-up composite structures under mechanical loading. Results show that damage initiation and progression have significant effect on the structural response. Influence of the type of loading is investigated on the damage initiation, propagation and final fracture of the build-up composite panel.

Gotsis, Pascal K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Research Capabilities for Oil-Free Turbomachinery Expanded by New Rotordynamic Simulator Facility

A new test rig has been developed for simulating high-speed turbomachinery shafting using Oil-Free foil air bearing technology. Foil air journal bearings are self-acting hydrodynamic bearings with a flexible inner sleeve surface using air as the lubricant. These bearings have been used in turbomachinery, primarily air cycle machines, for the past four decades to eliminate the need for oil lubrication. More recently, interest has been growing in applying foil bearings to aircraft gas turbine engines. They offer potential improvements in efficiency and power density, decreased maintenance costs, and other secondary benefits. The goal of applying foil air bearings to aircraft gas turbine engines prompted the fabrication of this test rig. The facility enables bearing designers to test potential bearing designs with shafts that simulate the rotating components of a target engine without the high cost of building actual flight hardware. The data collected from this rig can be used to make changes to the shaft and bearings in subsequent design iterations. The rest of this article describes the new test rig and demonstrates some of its capabilities with an initial simulated shaft system. The test rig has two support structures, each housing a foil air journal bearing. The structures are designed to accept any size foil journal bearing smaller than 63 mm (2.5 in.) in diameter. The bearing support structures are mounted to a 91- by 152-cm (3- by 5-ft) table and can be separated by as much as 122 cm (4 ft) and as little as 20 cm (8 in.) to accommodate a wide range of shaft sizes. In the initial configuration, a 9.5-cm (3.75-in.) impulse air turbine drives the test shaft. The impulse turbine, as well as virtually any number of "dummy" compressor and turbine disks, can be mounted on the shaft inboard or outboard of the bearings. This flexibility allows researchers to simulate various engine shaft configurations. The bearing support structures include a unique bearing mounting fixture that rotates to accommodate a laserbased alignment system. This can measure the misalignment of the bearing centers in each of 2 translational degrees of freedom and 2 rotational degrees of freedom. In the initial configuration, with roughly a 30.5-cm- (12-in.-) long shaft, two simulated aerocomponent disks, and two 50.8-cm (2-in.) foil journal bearings, the rig can operate at 65,000 rpm at room temperature. The test facility can measure shaft displacements in both the vertical and horizontal directions at each bearing location. Horizontal and vertical structural vibrations are monitored using accelerometers mounted on the bearing support structures. This information is used to determine system rotordynamic response, including critical speeds, mode shapes, orbit size and shape, and potentially the onset of instabilities. Bearing torque can be monitored as well to predict the power loss in the foil bearings. All of this information is fed back and forth between NASA and the foil bearing designers in an iterative fashion to converge on a final bearing and shaft design for a given engine application. In addition to its application development capabilities, the test rig offers several unique capabilities for basic bearing research. Using the laser alignment system mentioned earlier, the facility will be used to map foil air journal bearing performance. A known misalignment of increasing severity will be induced to determine the sensitivity of foil bearings to misalignment. Other future plans include oil-free integral starter generator testing and development, and dynamic load testing of foil journal bearings.

Howard, Samuel A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pragmatic Stress Prediction on Additively Manufactured Coupons

Prediction of residual stresses from process parameters for additively manufactured large metal parts is computationally expensive. NASA is currently developing meter-scale parts with direct energy deposition. Practically, the predictive computational methods need to efficiently scale-up to meter-scale parts. Coupled thermal-mechanical multi-physics simulations have been developed with the pragmatic method using ABAQUS, COMSOL Multiphysics, ALE3D software. The residual stresses are a result of the manufacturing process which creates thermal cycling of the build layers. The pragmatic method uses lumped thermal layers for stress predictions to reduce computational costs. The stress predictions as well as deformations of the different codes are compared with each other and with ANSYS Additive using identical material models, boundary and initial conditions. The codes were used to simulate three different geometries: a thin wall, hollow cylinder and twin-cantilever part. The coupon parts were then manufactured with Inconel-625. The residual stresses in these parts were measured using X-ray diffraction as well as neutron beam diffraction at NIST. The stress measurements for the two technologies are compared. The pragmatic stress prediction method enabled predictions of the multi-centimeter scale parts using desktop computer workstations in only a few hours for each coupon. The results of the simulated stress predictions compared favorably with the measured stresses even though thermally lumped layers were employed. Finally, a two-meter scale nozzle was simulated using ANSYS Additive. The simulations were used to examine the build orientation trade-space with respect to resulting geometric deformation. The predicted deformations were compared to measurements of an actual subscale part manufactured with direct energy deposition.

Additive Manufacturing↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extreme Mapping: Looking for Water on the Moon

There are many challenges when exploring extreme environments. Gathering accurate data to build maps about places that you cannot go is incredibly complex. NASA supports scientists by remotely operating robotic rovers to explore uncharted territories. One potential upcoming mission is to look for water near a lunar pole (the Resource Prospector mission). Learn about the technical hurdles and research steps that NASA takes before the mission. NASA practices on Earth with Mission Analogs which simulate the proposed mission. This includes going to lunar-type landscapes, building field networks, testing out rovers, instruments and operational procedures. NASA sets up remote science back rooms just as there are for actual missions. NASA develops custom Ground Data Systems software to support scientific mission planning and monitoring over variable time delays, and separate commanding software and infrastructure to operate the rovers.

MOON↗
NASA NTRS2018

Determination of Ballistic Limit for IM7/8552 Using LS-DYNA MAT 261

The goal of the NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact Project is to determine the state of the art of dynamic fracture simulations for high velocity impact for composite fuselage shielding applications. Using a building block approach, several computational models considered under NASA ACC are being validated against test data, starting at unconfigured panels and progressing to configured panels under combined out-of-plane and in-plane loading due to ballistic impact. The computational models being evaluated in this project include MAT 162, MAT 213, MAT 261, SPG, and Peridynamics. In this paper, the simulation results using LS-Dyna Material MAT 261 are presented. In particular, a series of blind predictions for unconfigured panels were performed to determine the ballistic limit or V50 velocity. MAT 261 employs failure approach that is generally physically-based using fracture toughness criteria. The overall material model relies on typical ply-level stiffness properties, similar to MAT 162 and other composite continuum damage material models. The fracture toughness values are based on standard tests, and thus are not subject to extensive calibration. This approach is more efficient than performing extensive optimization studies for calibration of parameters. Also, this approach of relying on physical properties reduces the uncertainty of results, as questions concerning the quality and extent of the calibration studies is no longer relevant. However, it was found that carefully controlled coupon-level tests are needed to accurately obtain the required fracture toughness values. Additionally, it should be noted that there is one significant parameter in MAT 261 that does appear to require calibration, and that is the overall failure strain. This is the strain at which the element is deleted, and is not the same as the strain at which damage begins to accumulate. This failure strain is termed EFS (Effective Failure Strain), and is the maximum effective stain for element failure. Simulations have shown that this value will significantly affect impact response and failure. The paper presents the effect of this element failure strain parameter, along with possible uncertainties in fracture toughness values. With an adjusted appropriate value for EFS, it is seen that simulation results compare well with impact test data for predicted penetration velocity.

Byar, Alan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pragmatic Stress Prediction on Additively Manufactured Coupons

Prediction of residual stresses from process parameters for additively manufactured large metal parts is computationally expensive. NASA is currently developing meter-scale parts with direct energy deposition. Practically, the predictive computational methods need to efficiently scale-up to meter-scale parts. Coupled thermal-mechanical multi-physics simulations have been developed with the pragmatic method using ABAQUS, COMSOL Multiphysics, ALE3D software. The residual stresses are a result of the manufacturing process which creates thermal cycling of the build layers. The pragmatic method uses lumped thermal layers for stress predictions to reduce computational costs. The stress predictions as well as deformations of the different codes are compared with each other and with ANSYS Additive using identical material models, boundary and initial conditions. The codes were used to simulate three different geometries: a thin wall, hollow cylinder and twin-cantilever part. The coupon parts were then manufactured with Inconel-625. The residual stresses in these parts were measured using X-ray diffraction as well as neutron beam diffraction at NIST. The stress measurements for the two technologies are compared. The pragmatic stress prediction method enabled predictions of the multi-centimeter scale parts using desktop computer workstations in only a few hours for each coupon. The results of the simulated stress predictions compared favorably with the measured stresses even though thermally lumped layers were employed. Finally, a two-meter scale nozzle was simulated using ANSYS Additive. The simulations were used to examine the build orientation trade-space with respect to resulting geometric deformation. The predicted deformations were compared to measurements of an actual subscale part manufactured with direct energy deposition.

pragmatic method↗
NASA NTRS1997

Progressive Fracture of Fiber Composite Build-Up Structures

Damage progression and fracture of built-up composite structures is evaluated by using computational simulation. The objective is to examine the behavior and response of a stiffened composite (0 +/-45/90)(sub s6) laminate panel by simulating the damage initiation, growth, accumulation, progression and propagation to structural collapse. An integrated computer code CODSTRAN was augmented for the simulation of the progressive damage and fracture of built-up composite structures under mechanical loading. Results show that damage initiation and progression to have significant effect on the structural response. Influence of the type of loading is investigated on the damage initiation, propagation and final fracture of the build-up composite panel.

Minnetyan, Levon↗
NASA NTRS2007

A New High-Speed Oil-Free Turbine Engine Rotordynamic Simulator Test Rig

A new test rig has been developed for simulating high-speed turbomachinery rotor systems using Oil-Free foil air bearing technology. Foil air bearings have been used in turbomachinery, primarily air cycle machines, for the past four decades to eliminate the need for oil lubrication. The goal of applying this bearing technology to other classes of turbomachinery has prompted the fabrication of this test rig. The facility gives bearing designers the capability to test potential bearing designs with shafts that simulate the rotating components of a target machine without the high cost of building "make-and-break" hardware. The data collected from this rig can be used to make design changes to the shaft and bearings in subsequent design iterations. This paper describes the new test rig and demonstrates its capabilities through the initial run with a simulated shaft system.

Howard, Samuel A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Business Intelligence Modeling in Launch Operations

This technology project is to advance an integrated Planning and Management Simulation Model for evaluation of risks, costs, and reliability of launch systems from Earth to Orbit for Space Exploration. The approach builds on research done in the NASA ARC/KSC developed Virtual Test Bed (VTB) to integrate architectural, operations process, and mission simulations for the purpose of evaluating enterprise level strategies to reduce cost, improve systems operability, and reduce mission risks. The objectives are to understand the interdependency of architecture and process on recurring launch cost of operations, provide management a tool for assessing systems safety and dependability versus cost, and leverage lessons learned and empirical models from Shuttle and International Space Station to validate models applied to Exploration. The systems-of-systems concept is built to balance the conflicting objectives of safety, reliability, and process strategy in order to achieve long term sustainability. A planning and analysis test bed is needed for evaluation of enterprise level options and strategies for transit and launch systems as well as surface and orbital systems. This environment can also support agency simulation .based acquisition process objectives. The technology development approach is based on the collaborative effort set forth in the VTB's integrating operations. process models, systems and environment models, and cost models as a comprehensive disciplined enterprise analysis environment. Significant emphasis is being placed on adapting root cause from existing Shuttle operations to exploration. Technical challenges include cost model validation, integration of parametric models with discrete event process and systems simulations. and large-scale simulation integration. The enterprise architecture is required for coherent integration of systems models. It will also require a plan for evolution over the life of the program. The proposed technology will produce long-term benefits in support of the NASA objectives for simulation based acquisition, will improve the ability to assess architectural options verses safety/risk for future exploration systems, and will facilitate incorporation of operability as a systems design consideration, reducing overall life cycle cost for future systems. The future of business intelligence of space exploration will focus on the intelligent system-of-systems real-time enterprise. In present business intelligence, a number of technologies that are most relevant to space exploration are experiencing the greatest change. Emerging patterns of set of processes rather than organizational units leading to end-to-end automation is becoming a major objective of enterprise information technology. The cost element is a leading factor of future exploration systems.

Bardina, Jorge E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Viscous flow simulations of internal store carriage and separation

The internal carriage of stores by the military aircraft is an option for possible reductions in the aerodynamic drag and the observability. Trade studies of this option require considering the aircraft and the stores together. In an effort to develop a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code for such studies, an investigation was conducted from 1986 to 1990. The study was divided into five building-block steps. First, a full Navier-Stokes code was developed to simulate the unsteady, three-dimensional cavity flow. As the second step, this code was then used to simulate the flows past various missile configurations at angles of attack up to 44 deg. The effects of incidence as well as the turbulence on the leeside flows were computationally captured. The objective of this study has involved the interference flows of rather complex configurations with multiple, joint or disjoint, components of nonsimilar geometries. Hence, a hybrid domain decomposition (HDD) method was developed as the third step of the investigation. The strengths of the multiblock, zonal, and overlapped grids were judiciously combined and employed for the present problem. In the fourth step, the interference flow past a missile near a flat-plate wing was simulated using the HDD method. Finally, the fifth step involved the simulation of the internal store carriage and separation. Four different cases for two different configurations were simulated. The computational results of all five steps were successfully compared with the available wind tunnel test data. The unsteady aerodynamic forces on the separating store were computationally predicted. The CFD code developed for this project is called Viscous Internal Store Carriage Code (VISCC).

Baysal, Oktay↗
NASA NTRS2004

Stirling Engine Dynamic System Modeling

The Thermo-Mechanical systems branch at the Glenn Research Center focuses a large amount time on Stirling engines. These engines will be used on missions where solar power is inefficient, especially in deep space. I work with Tim Regan and Ed Lewandowski who are currently developing and validating a mathematical model for the Stirling engines. This model incorporates all aspects of the system including, mechanical, electrical and thermodynamic components. Modeling is done through Simplorer, a program capable of running simulations of the model. Once created and then proven to be accurate, a model is used for developing new ideas for engine design. My largest specific project involves varying key parameters in the model and quantifying the results. This can all be done relatively trouble-free with the help of Simplorer. Once the model is complete, Simplorer will do all the necessary calculations. The more complicated part of this project is determining which parameters to vary. Finding key parameters depends on the potential for a value to be independently altered in the design. For example, a change in one dimension may lead to a proportional change to the rest of the model, and no real progress is made. Also, the ability for a changed value to have a substantial impact on the outputs of the system is important. Results will be condensed into graphs and tables with the purpose of better communication and understanding of the data. With the changing of these parameters, a more optimal design can be created without having to purchase or build any models. Also, hours and hours of results can be simulated in minutes. In the long run, using mathematical models can save time and money. Along with this project, I have many other smaller assignments throughout the summer. My main goal is to assist in the processes of model development, validation and testing.

Nakis, Christopher G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

SMC: SCENIC Model Control

NASAs Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program manages three active networks: the Near Earth Network, the Space Network, and the Deep Space Network. These networks simultaneously support NASA missions and provide communications services to customers worldwide. To efficiently manage these resources and their capabilities, a team of student interns at the NASA Glenn Research Center is developing a distributed system to model the SCaN networks. Once complete, the system shall provide a platform that enables users to perform capacity modeling of current and prospective missions with finer-grained control of information between several simulation and modeling tools. This will enable the SCaN program to access a holistic view of its networks and simulate the effects of modifications in order to provide NASA with decisional information. The development of this capacity modeling system is managed by NASAs Strategic Center for Education, Networking, Integration, and Communication (SCENIC). Three primary third-party software tools offer their unique abilities in different stages of the simulation process. MagicDraw provides UMLSysML modeling, AGIs Systems Tool Kit simulates the physical transmission parameters and de-conflicts scheduled communication, and Riverbed Modeler (formerly OPNET) simulates communication protocols and packet-based networking. SCENIC developers are building custom software extensions to integrate these components in an end-to-end space communications modeling platform. A central control module acts as the hub for report-based messaging between client wrappers. Backend databases provide information related to mission parameters and ground station configurations, while the end user defines scenario-specific attributes for the model. The eight SCENIC interns are working under the direction of their mentors to complete an initial version of this capacity modeling system during the summer of 2015. The intern team is composed of four students in Computer Science, two in Computer Engineering, one in Electrical Engineering, and one studying Space Systems Engineering.

Simulation↗
NASA NTRS1990

Discrete event simulation tool for analysis of qualitative models of continuous processing systems

An artificial intelligence design and qualitative modeling tool is disclosed for creating computer models and simulating continuous activities, functions, and/or behavior using developed discrete event techniques. Conveniently, the tool is organized in four modules: library design module, model construction module, simulation module, and experimentation and analysis. The library design module supports the building of library knowledge including component classes and elements pertinent to a particular domain of continuous activities, functions, and behavior being modeled. The continuous behavior is defined discretely with respect to invocation statements, effect statements, and time delays. The functionality of the components is defined in terms of variable cluster instances, independent processes, and modes, further defined in terms of mode transition processes and mode dependent processes. Model construction utilizes the hierarchy of libraries and connects them with appropriate relations. The simulation executes a specialized initialization routine and executes events in a manner that includes selective inherency of characteristics through a time and event schema until the event queue in the simulator is emptied. The experimentation and analysis module supports analysis through the generation of appropriate log files and graphics developments and includes the ability of log file comparisons.

Malin, Jane T.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Stainless Steel NaK-Cooled Circuit (SNaKC) Fabrication and Assembly

An actively pumped Stainless Steel NaK Circuit (SNaKC) has been designed and fabricated by the Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF) team at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. This circuit uses the eutectic mixture of sodium and potassium (NaK) as the working fluid building upon the experience and accomplishments of the SNAP reactor program from the late 1960's The SNaKC enables valuable experience and liquid metal test capability to be gained toward the goal of designing and building an affordable surface power reactor. The basic circuit components include a simulated reactor core a NaK to gas heat exchanger, an electromagnetic (EM) liquid metal pump, a liquid metal flow meter, an expansion reservoir and a drain/fill reservoir To maintain an oxygen free environment in the presence of NaK, an argon system is utilized. A helium and nitrogen system are utilized for core, pump, and heat exchanger operation. An additional rest section is available to enable special component testing m an elevated temperature actively pumped liquid metal environment. This paper summarizes the physical build of the SNaKC the gas and pressurization systems, vacuum systems, as well as instrumentation and control methods.

Godfroy, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fan Noise Predictions of the NASA Source Diagnostic Test using Unsteady Simulations with LAVA Part II - Tonal and Broadband Noise Assessment

The NASA Source Diagnostic Test (SDT) campaign experimental data is used for validation of a sliding mesh technique recently implemented within the Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics computational framework for time-accurate simulation of rotating fans. The far-field acoustics are analyzed in this work, building upon the aerodynamic validation studies previously published in Part I. Two modeling approaches are explored: the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (uRANS) with the negative Spalart-Allmaras (SA-neg) turbulence model closure, and a hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes/large-eddy simulation (RANS/LES) paradigm employing a zonal detached-eddy simulation (ZDES) closure with enhanced shielding protection. Two convective flux scheme approaches with different dissipation properties are also explored with ZDES. The Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FW-H) permeable surface approach is used for propagation of the near-field acoustics to the far-field microphone locations. This work analyzes the low-speed (approach) condition, characterized by a fan rotation speed of 7808 rotations-per-minute (RPM). Three different grid levels ranging between 200 million and 1.1 billion grid points are considered. Results show good prediction of the broadband noise levels at sideline angles ranging between 70° and 110°. The forward arc observers show an under-prediction of the overall sound pressure levels (OASPL) even at the fine grid level. A breakdown of the inlet and exhaust contributions reveals a steep drop-off in the broadband noise levels past a blade-passing frequency (BPF) of 1.5, potentially caused by a lack of resolved small-scale turbulent fluctuations in the interstage region. Past 110° the OASPL are over-predicted by up to 10 dB due to an over-prediction of the low-frequency broadband noise levels in the aft arc. The detuning of BPF2 caused by small deviations in the blade stagger angle around the wheel is captured, and a corresponding decrease in the sound power level for this cut-on tone is observed.

AATT↗
NASA NTRS2006

Imagine Moving Off the Planet

Moving off the planet will be a defining moment of this century as landing on the Moon was in the last. For that to happen for humans to go where humans cannot go-- simulation is the sole solution. NASA supports simulation for life-cycle activities: design, analysis, test, checkout, operations, review and training. We contemplate time spans of a century and more, teams dispersed to different planets and the need for systems that endure or adapt as missions, teams and technology change. Without imagination such goals are impossible. But with imagination we can go outside our present perception of reality to think about and take action on what has been, is and, especially, what might be. Consciously maturing an imagined, possibly workable, idea through framing it to optimization to design, and building the product provides us with a new approach to innovation and simulation fidelity. We address options, analyze, test and make improvements in how we think and work. Each step includes increasingly exact information about costs, schedule, who will be needed, where, when and how. NASA i integrating such thinking into its Exploration Product Realization Hierarchy for simulation and analysis, test and verification, and stimulus response goals. Technically NASA follows a timeline of studies, analysis, definition, design, development and operations with concurrent documentation. We have matched this Product Realization Hierarchy with a continuum from image to realization that incorporates commitment, current and needed research and communication to ensure superior and creative problem solving as well as advances in simulation. One result is a new approach to collaborative systems. Another is a distributed observer network prototyped using game engine technology bringing advanced 3-D simulation of a simulation to the desktop enabling people to develop shared consensus of its meaning. Much of the value of simulation comes from developing in people their ability to make good decisions and reflexes supporting impressive achievement. Synthesizing imagination systematically into our work - and thus our success - is a challenge. NASA engineers have inventive minds, and the task is determining how best to enable them to devise the simulation and other innovations that will make a story so clear and so intellectually sound that people can carry out the mission for 50-100 years. This demands skills and knowledge traditionally under-respected and under-represented in technology organizations. But we are beginning to see that the process encourages efficiency and enables us to attain more effective results. We have to elicit imaginative, intelligent and effective ways to make better use than ever of the minds we have and will have available. We have to accept the challenge to accomplish tasks among dispersed interdisciplinary teams who must overcome changing priorities and technology, time and distance in order to maximize interactivity and innovation as never before. Attention to the process of innovation is a practical means to increase the efficiency of our intelligence. We have an obligation to reexamine and improve the process by which we approach and exercise innovation as we accept the charge to move off the planet.

Elfrey, Priscilla R.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Importance of Internal Variability for Climate Model Assessment

Benchmarking climate model simulations against observations of the climate is core to the process of building realistic climate models and developing accurate future projections. However, in many cases, models do not match historical observations, particularly on regional scales. If there is a mismatch between modeled and observed climate features, should we necessarily conclude that our models are deficient? Using several illustrative examples, we emphasize that internal variability can easily lead to marked differences between the basic features of the model and observed climate, even when decades of model and observed data are available. This can appear as an apparent failure of models to capture regional trends or changes in global teleconnections, or simulation of extreme events. Despite a large body of literature on the impact of internal variability on climate, this acknowledgment has not yet penetrated many model evaluation activities, particularly for regional climate. We emphasize that using a single or small ensemble of simulations to conclude that a climate model is in error can lead to premature conclusions on model fidelity. A large ensemble of multidecadal simulations is therefore needed to properly sample internal climate variability in order to robustly identify model deficiencies and convincingly demonstrate progress between generations of climate models.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗