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At least 361 records · Page 20

Application of LES (Large Eddy Simulation) to Understanding and Parameterizing the Arctic Cloudy Boundary Layer

The GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Cloud Systems Studies Working Group 5 Polar Clouds was formed largely to exploit the enormous potential of the FIRE.ACE (FIRE Arctic Cloud Experiment) and SHEBA (Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) data sets to improve parameterizations of clouds, radiation, and atmospheric boundary layer processes in the polar regions. The web page for this project is a clearinghouse of information for polar clouds in general and specifically for FIRE.ACE and SHEBA modelling activities. Note that the GCSS Working Group and Polar Clouds leverages heavily the FIRE.ACE investment, since it involves a large group of international scientists and has adopted the modelling goals and other issues related to cloud and radiation processes that are articulated by the FIRE.ACE Science Plan. The supplemental funds in this proposal are targeted at providing the continued coordination for the GCSS Working Group on Polar Clouds, which will insure that final FIRE.ACE project objectives regarding modelling and cloud and radiative processes are achieved.

Curry, Judith↗

Improving the Simulation of Tropical Convective Cloud-Top Heights in CAM5 with CloudSat Observations

Using 4 years of CloudSat data, the simulation of tropical convective cloud-top heights (CCTH) above 6 km simulated by the convection scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is evaluated. Compared to CloudSat observations, CAM5 underestimates CCTH by more than 2 km on average. Further analysis of model results suggests that the dilute CAPE calculation, which has been incorporated into the convective parameterization since CAM4, is a main factor restricting CCTH to much lower levels. After removing this restriction, more convective clouds develop into higher altitudes, although convective clouds with tops above 12 km are still underestimated significantly. The environmental conditions under which convection develops in CAM5 are compared with CloudSat observations for convection with similar CCTHs. It is shown that the model atmosphere is much more unstable compared to CloudSat observations, and there is too much entrainment in CAM5. Since CCTHs are closely associated with cloud radiative forcing, the impacts of CCTH on model simulation are further investigated. Results show that the change of CCTH has important impacts on cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. With increased CCTHs, there is more cloud radiative forcing in tropical Africa and the eastern Pacific, but less cloud radiative forcing in the western Pacific. The contribution to total convective precipitation from convection with cloud tops above 9 km is also increased substantially.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earth radiation budget and cloudiness simulations with a general circulation model

A GCM with new parameterizations of solar and terrestrial radiation, parameterized cloud optical properties, and a simple representation of the cloud liquid water feedback is used with several observational data sets to analyze the effects of cloudiness on the earth's radiation budget. The January and July results from the model are in reasonable agreement with data from Nimbus-7. It is found that the simulated cloudiness overpredicts subtropical and midlatitude cloudiness. The simulated atmospheric cloud radiative forcing is examined. The clear-sky radiation fields obtained by two methods of Cess and Potter (1987) are compared. Also, a numerical experiment was performed to determine the effects of the water vapor continuum on the model results.

HARSHVARDHAN↗

Examination of Regional Trends in Low Level Cloud Properties Found in the Aqua-MODIS Satellite Record

Clouds have a pronounced influence on the Earth?s climate. Relative to cloud free conditions, they cool the planet by increasing the amount of solar radiation reflected back to space and reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface, but they warm the planet by decreasing the amount of thermal infrared radiation escaping to space and increasing the amount reaching the surface (a greenhouse effect). The global mean net cloud radiative effect (CRE) is about -20 W/m2, a cooling effect at both the top-ofatmosphere and surface. Given the magnitude of CRE?s, it is expected that changes in cloud properties could be a significant factor in climate change due to anthropogenic forcing?s, yet cloud feedbacks are not well known and remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate prediction. This paper explores relationships between coincident observations of atmospheric aerosols, clouds and radiation derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and from the Clouds and the Earth?s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the Aqua satellite. We investigate several interesting regional trends that have emerged in the nearly 18-year satellite record that suggest correlation between changes in low-level cloud properties and changes in aerosol optical depth that may be associated with changes in pollution emissions and possibly with other factors. MERRA reanalysis of meteorological conditions and aerosol particulate species are investigated to help better understand the potential mechanisms responsible for the observed cloud property trends. Finally, we analyze a new CERES flux by cloud type dataset in order to try and isolate the associated trends in low-level cloud radiative effects. It is anticipated that this study using long-term observations of clouds, aerosols and radiative fluxes combined with model reanalysis data will contribute to an improved understanding of cloud climate feedbacks.

William L Smith Jr.↗

Integration of satellite and surface data using a radiative-convective oceanic boundary-layer model

A mixing-line boundary-layer model is used to retrieve cloud-top height from satellite-derived cloud-top temperatures, using 700-hPa National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses and the Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) surface data as supporting datasets. Results are compared with the fixed-lapse-rate method of retrieving boundary-layer depth from sea surface temperatures (SST) and cloud-top temperatures. A radiative-convective equilibrium boundary-layer model is used to retrieve boundary-layer structure given SST and surface wind, satellite cloud-top temperatures and cloud fraction, and the 700-hPa NMC thermodynamic analyses. Good agreement is found between the COADS data and the model solutions for low-level temperature and moisture. This suggests that equilibrium boundary-layer models may be of use over remote oceans in the retrieval of boundary-layer structure.

Betts, Alan K.↗

CoURAGE KAZR b1 Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility supports atmospheric and earth system research through a comprehensive network of fixed and mobile observatories. These facilities provide long-term and intensive campaign-based observations of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, radiation, and meteorological state variables. ARM observations are designed to improve the physical understanding and numerical representation of atmospheric processes in earth system models, with particular emphasis on cloud-radiation interactions and precipitation processes. The Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) deploys one of the ARM Mobile Facilities (AMF) to the Mid-Atlantic region surrounding Baltimore, Maryland, for the period 1 December 2024 through 30 November 2025. This deployment focuses on characterizing atmospheric structure, cloud properties, and precipitation processes across strong land-use and surface heterogeneity gradients associated with urban, rural, and coastal (Chesapeake Bay) environments. The CoURAGE deployment complements the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL), by providing high-quality atmospheric observations needed to connect urban surface processes, emissions, and meteorology to cloud and precipitation responses. In addition to the central urban site, ancillary observing sites were deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore and to an island site in Chesapeake Bay. These measurements further complement a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland, by Howard University in collaboration with the Maryland Department of the Environment. Together, these assets form a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network representing Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments—urban, rural, and coastal/bay. This coordinated observational strategy enables investigation of spatial gradients in boundary-layer structure, cloud occurrence, precipitation evolution, and aerosol-cloud interactions across complex surface regimes. Within this network, vertically pointing cloud radars play a critical role by providing continuous, high-resolution measurements of cloud and precipitation vertical structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of Sub-Grid Heterogeneity and its Impact on GCM Global Radiation Balance

The spatial and temporal variability of high, low, and mid-level clouds is obtained from ISCCP D1 data. Monthly mean global maps of the observed cloud variability are used to re-scale GCM prognostic cloud optical depths and radiative parameters via the Monte Carlo cloud heterogeneity parameterization that utilizes the existing plane-parallel GCM radiative transfer model to compute radiative fluxes for inhomogeneous cloud distributions. The GCM radiative fluxes at TOA and the ground surface are then compared to ERBE and GEBA results. These comparisons show that including sub-grid cloud variability in the GCM radiative model improves agreement between the GCM radiative energy budget components and observations,

Lacis, Andrew↗

Toward Consistent Long-term Records of Cloud Fraction from MODIS and VIIRS for CERES

In order to produce a long-term and stable climate record of Earth’s energy budget for NASA’s Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, a consistent cloud fraction record across different measurement platforms­­ is a crucial first step. As Aqua satellite is approaching the end of its operational lifetime, NOAA-20 VIIRS observations on the JPSS-2 spacecraft will be used for cloud detection to continue the long-term Earth energy budget record. Two steps are designed to achieve this goal. The first step is a quick approach that revises the CERES NOAA-20 VIIRS Edition 1 A (CV Ed1A) cloud mask to incorporate Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) water vapor and CO_2 channels into the VIIRS cloud mask (CV Ed1B) to produce a consistent cloud fraction with CERES MODIS Edition 4 (CM Ed4) to avoid potential discontinuity when Aqua orbit drifts beyond tolerance before the next Edition is completed. The second step is to develop, as part of CERES next edition (Ed5), a unified MODIS and VIIRS cloud mask using common channels to produce consistent cloud products with improved radiative transfer models, refined clear sky predictions, new GMAO reanalysis products, and the latest radiance collections of MODIS and VIIRS data. This poster will present cloud fraction comparison between CV Ed1B and CM Ed4, as well as the preliminary results of ongoing Ed5 including pixel level cloud mask results, monthly global cloud fraction differences between MODIS and VIIRS (consistency), and initial validation using CALIPSO data (accuracy).

CERES↗

The radiation budget of a Cirrus layer deduced from simultaneous aircraft observations and model calculations

Several aircraft were employed during the FIRE Cirrus IFO in order to make nearly simultaneous observations of cloud properties and fluxes. A segment of the flight data collected on 28 October 1988 during which the NASA Ames ER-2 overflew the NCAR King Air was analyzed. The ER-2 flew at high altitude making observations of visible and infrared radiances and infrared flux and cloud height and thickness. During this segment, the King Air flew just above the cloud base making observations of ice crystal size and shape, local meteorological variables, and infrared fluxes. While the two aircraft did not collect data exactly coincident in space and time, they did make observations within a few minutes of each other. For this case study, the infrared radiation balance of the cirrus layer is of primary concern. Observations of the upwelling 10 micron radiance, made from the ER-2, can be used to deduce the 10 micron optical depth of the layer. The upwelling broadband infrared flux is also measured from the ER-2. At the same time, the upwelling and downwelling infrared flux at the cloud base is obtained from the King Air measurements. Information on cloud microphysics is also available from the King Air. Using this data in conjunction with atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles from local radiosondes, the necessary inputs for an infrared radiative transfer model can be developed. Infrared radiative transfer calculations are performed with a multispectral two-stream model. The model fluxes at the cloud base and at 19 km are then compared with the aircraft observations to determine whether the model is performing well. Cloud layer heating rates can then be computed from the radiation exchange.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗

Quantifying Changes in the Arctic Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effects

The shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is important on the Arctic surface radiation budget and the major source of inter-model spread in predictions of Arctic climate. To better understand the individual contributions of various radiative processes to changes in SWCRE, the paper presents the use of the extended APRP (Atmospheric Radiative Perturbation Potential) method. This involves adding the absorptivity for the upward beam and considering differences in reflectivity between upward and downward beams, as well as analyzing the cloud masking effect resulting from changes in surface albedo in more detail. Using data from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models, the study decomposes the SWCRE over the Arctic surface and analyzes inter-model differences in quadrupled CO2 simulations. The study takes into account the fact that the response of SWCRE to Arctic warming is influenced by changes in surface albedo, cloud amount, and cloud microphysics. Results show that in the sunlight season, the reduction in surface albedo associated with sea ice loss is directly linked to strong negative SWCRE, which explains the considerable model discrepancy. Arctic clouds can hinder the positive surface albedo feedback by changing the albedo in two ways: (1) decreasing incoming shortwave radiation due to cloud reflection and (2) by decreasing the shortwave reaching the surface after being reflected by clouds. In addition, increased (decreased) cloud amount and cloud liquid water are shown to be less (more) incoming shortwave fluxes at the surface, but not dominating factors to the Arctic surface radiation budget and its inter-model variation. Overall, the extended APRP method offers a useful tool for analyzing the complex interactions between clouds and radiative process, reasonably decomposes the individual SWCRE responses at the Arctic surface, and emphasizes that considering not only the cloud amount or its properties, but also surface albedo change is critical for the prediction of SWCRE on the Arctic surface.

Arctic cloud↗

A history of presatellite investigations of the earth's radiation budget

The history of radiation budget studies from the early twentieth century to the advent of the space age is reviewed. By the beginning of the 1960's, accurate radiative models had been developed capable of estimating the global and zonally averaged components of the radiation budget, though great uncertainty in the derived parameters existed due to inaccuracy of the data describing the physical parameters used in the model, associated with clouds, the solar radiation, and the gaseous atmospheric absorbers. Over the century, the planetary albedo estimates had reduced from 89 to 30 percent.

Hunt, G. E.↗

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effect of cirrus clouds on 118-GHz brightness temperatures

A microwave radiative transfer model that describes the effect of scattering by cirrus clouds on the brightness temperatures that may be measured by a geostationary temperature-sounding radiometer has been developed. The model assumes that cirrus clouds are situated at an altitude where the temperature is about 230 K above completely absorbing land surfaces. It is shown that the brightness temperature at 118.75 + or - 3.9 GHz is depressed by 0.3-0.4 K per g per sq m of ice. The channels that operate at frequencies closer to 118.75 GHz are less affected by cirrus clouds. The brightness temperature reduction is most pronounced in warm temperate and tropical conditions.

Weinman, J. A.↗

Cloud Structure and Cloud-Radiation Interaction: From Smallest Observable Scales (Less than 10 m) to GCM Grid Scales (More than 100 km)

In this presentation we review the fractal nature of internal cloud structure from cm- to km-scales as captured by in-situ probes during long horizontal penetrations by aircraft. We uncover the non-Poissonian spatial distribution of cloud droplets at submeter scales and confirm scale-invariant behavior for large scales. Based on these structural characteristics, we generate simple fractal cloud models that reproduce statistical scaling properties of real clouds. These stochastic models represent a link between nonlinear science, in general, and cloud-radiation interaction, in particular. Next we run three-dimensional radiative transfer computations on these synthetic fractal clouds and compare the structure of the resulting radiation fields with the known structure of the cloud model and with satellite images of real clouds. The different behaviors observed for small and large-scale variabilities will be discussed in detail. We find that while the large-scale fluctuations of the resulting radiation fields resemble those in the original scale-invariant cloud structure, the radiation at small scales is much smoother than its cloud liquid water counterpart. This violates scale-invariance and produces a scale-break at 0.2-0.5 km that is clearly observed in high-resolution satellite data such as from Landsat. Finally, we show how radiative transfer Green function theory in the photon diffusion limit explains (and predicts) the above phenomena of "radiative smoothing."

Marshak, Alexander↗

Cloud Spatial Structure and 3D Radiative Transfer

Cloud radiative properties are sensitive to drop size and other parameters of cloud micro-structure, but also to cloud shape,spacing, and other parameters of cloud macro-structure, including internal fractal structure. New information on cloud structure is being derived from a variety of cloud radars, and ongoing field programs such as DoE/ARM. These programs are improving the measurement and modelling of physical and radiative properties of clouds. A parallel effort is underway to improve cloud remote sensing, especially from the new suite of EOS-AM1 instruments which will provide higher spectral, spatial resolution, and/or angular resolution. Key parameters for improving pixel-scale retrievals are cloud thickness and photon mean-free-path, which together determine the scale of "radiative smoothing" of cloud fluxes and radiances. This scale has been observed as a change in the spatial spectrum of Landsat cloud radiances, and was also recently found with the Goddard micropulse lidar, by searching for returns from directions nonparallel to the incident beam. "Offbeam" Lidar returns are now being used to estimate the cloud "radiative Green's function", G,which depends on cloud thickness and may be used to retrieve that important quantity. G is also being applied to improving simple IPA estimates of cloud radiative properties. This and other measurements of 3D transfer in clouds, coupled with Monte Carlo and other 3D transfer methods, are beginning to provide a better understanding of the dependence of radiation on cloud inhomogeneity, and to suggest new retrieval and parameterization algorithms which take account of cloud inhomogeneity.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

Clouds and Convective Self-Aggregation in a Multi-Model Ensemble of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Simulations

The Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) is an intercomparison of multiple types of numerical models configured in radiative-convective56equilibrium (RCE). RCE is an idealization of the tropical atmosphere that has long been used to study basic questions in climate science. Here, we employ RCE to investigate the role that clouds and convective activity play in determining cloud feedbacks, climatecsensitivity, the state of convective aggregation, and the equilibrium climate. RCEMIP is unique amongst intercomparisons in its inclusion of a wide range of model types, including atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), single column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), large eddy simulations (LES), and global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs). The first results are presented from the RCEMIP ensemble of more than 30 models. While there are large differences across the RCEMIP ensemble in the representation of mean profiles of temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models anvil clouds rise, warm, and decrease in area coverage in response to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). Nearly all models exhibit self-aggregation in large domains and agree that self-aggregation acts to dry and warm the troposphere, reduce high cloudiness, and increase cooling to space. The degree of self-aggregation exhibits no clear tendency with warming. There is a wide range of climate sensitivities, but models with parameterized convection tend to have lower climate sensitivities than models with explicit convection. In models with parameterized convection, aggregated simulations have lower climate sensitivities than un-aggregated simulations. Plain Language Summary This study investigates tropical clouds and climate using results from more than 30 different numerical models set up in a simplified framework. The dataset of model simulations is unique in that it includes a wide range of model types configured in a consistent manner. We address some of the biggest open questions in climate science, including how cloud properties change with warming and the role that the tendency of clouds to form clusters plays in determining the average climate and how climate changes. While there are large differences in how the different models simulate average temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models, the amount of high clouds decreases as climate warms. Nearly all models simulate a tendency for clouds to cluster together. There is agreement that when the clouds are clustered, the atmosphere is drier with fewer clouds overall. We don’t find a conclusive result for how cloud clustering changes as the climate warms.

Allison A. Wing↗

The embedded young stars in the Taurus-Auriga molecular cloud. I - Models for spectral energy distributions

We describe radiative transfer calculations of infalling, dusty envelopes surrounding pre-main-sequence stars and use these models to derive physical properties for a sample of 21 heavily reddened young stars in the Taurus-Auriga molecular cloud. The density distributions needed to match the FIR peaks in the spectral energy distributions of these embedded sources suggest mass infall rates similar to those predicted for simple thermally supported clouds with temperatures about 10 K. Unless the dust opacities are badly in error, our models require substantial departures from spherical symmetry in the envelopes of all sources. These flattened envelopes may be produced by a combination of rotation and cavities excavated by bipolar flows. The rotating infall models of Terebey et al. (1984) models indicate a centrifugal radius of about 70 AU for many objects if rotation is the only important physical effect, and this radius is reasonably consistent with typical estimates for the sizes of circumstellar disks around T Tauri stars.

Kenyon, Scott J.↗