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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Circuit Cutting and Scheduling in a Resource-constrained and Distributed Quantum System

Despite quantum computing's rapid development, current systems remain limited in practical applications due to their limited qubit count and quality. Various technologies, such as superconducting, trapped ions, and neutral atom quantum computing technologies are progressing towards a fault tolerant era, however they all face a diverse set of challenges in scalability and control. Recent efforts have focused on multi-node quantum systems that connect multiple smaller quantum devices to execute larger circuits. Future demonstrations hope to use quantum channels to couple systems, however current demonstrations can leverage classical communication with circuit cutting techniques. This involves cutting large circuits into smaller subcircuits and reconstructing them post-execution. However, existing cutting methods are hindered by lengthy search times as the number of qubits and gates increases. Additionally, they often fail to effectively utilize the resources of various worker configurations in a multi-node system. To address these challenges, we introduce FitCut, a novel approach that transforms quantum circuits into weighted graphs and utilizes a community-based, bottom-up approach to cut circuits according to resource constraints, e.g., qubit counts, on each worker. FitCut also includes a scheduling algorithm that optimizes resource utilization across workers. Implemented with Qiskit and evaluated extensively, FitCut significantly outperforms the Qiskit Circuit Knitting Toolbox, reducing time costs by factors ranging from 3 to 2000 and improving resource utilization rates by up to 3.88 times on the worker side, achieving a system-wide improvement of 2.86 times.

Kan, Shuwen [Fordham University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Topology-Dependent Performance of Free-Space Photonic Quantum Networks Under Noise

Photonic quantum communication enables secure and high-fidelity information transfer beyond classical limits, with direct relevance to emerging quantum networks operating in free-space environments. While physical-layer models of depolarizing noise, Gamma–Gamma turbulence statistics, entanglement swapping, and decoy-state QKD security bounds are individually well established, prior work typically treats these components in isolation or under fixed network assumptions. In this work, we develop a unified topology-aware analytical framework that simultaneously integrates free-space optical link budgets, turbulence-induced visibility degradation, depolarizing qubit noise, multi-hop entanglement cascade dynamics, teleportation fidelity thresholds, CHSH nonlocality certification, and asymptotic decoy-state secret key rate bounds across star, mesh, and ring graph structures. Rather than introducing new physical channel models, we demonstrate that identical physical links exhibit fundamentally different end-to-end performance once embedded within different network topologies. Mesh architectures minimize visibility cascade through hop-count reduction but incur quadratic hardware scaling. Star topologies minimize link count but concentrate noise and synchronization overhead at the hub. Ring configurations offer linear hardware scaling with multiplicative fidelity degradation. The results establish topology as a first-order design parameter in near-term free-space quantum networks operating without full quantum repeater infrastructures. While motivated by distributed multi-agent architectures, the framework applies broadly to terrestrial, airborne, and satellite-assisted photonic quantum communication systems.

QKD↗
DOE OSTI2020

The ePix10k 2-megapixel hard X-ray detector at LCLS

The ePix10ka2M (ePix10k) is a new large area detector specifically developed for X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) applications. The hybrid pixel detector was developed at SLAC to provide a hard X-ray area detector with a high dynamic range, running at the 120 Hz repetition rate of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). The ePix10k consists of 16 modules, each with 352 × 384 pixels of 100 µm × 100 µm distributed on four ASICs, resulting in a 2.16 megapixel detector, with a 16.5 cm × 16.5 cm active area and ∼80% coverage. The high dynamic range is achieved with three distinct gain settings (low, medium, high) as well as two auto-ranging modes (high-to-low and medium-to-low). Here the three fixed gain modes are evaluated. The resulting dynamic range (from single photon counting to 10000 photons pixel −1 pulse −1 at 8 keV) makes it suitable for a large number of different XFEL experiments. The ePix10k replaces the large CSPAD in operation since 2011. The dimensions of the two detectors are similar, making the upgrade from CSPAD to ePix10k straightforward for most setups, with the ePix10k improving on experimental performance. The SLAC-developed ePix cameras all utilize a similar platform, are tailored to target different experimental conditions and are designed to provide an upgrade path for future high-repetition-rate XFELs. Here the first measurements on this new ePix10k detector are presented and the performance under typical XFEL conditions evaluated during an LCLS X-ray diffuse scattering experiment measuring the 9.5 keV X-ray photons scattered from a thin liquid jet.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of the Hamamatsu 8-inch R14688-100 PMT

Large-scale optical neutrino and dark-matter detectors rely on large-area photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) for cost-effective light detection. The new R14688-100 8-inch PMT developed by Hamamatsu provides state-of-the-art timing resolution of around 1 ns (FWHM), which can help improve vertex reconstruction and enable Cherenkov and scintillation light separation in scintillation-based detectors. This PMT also provides excellent charge resolution, allowing for precision photoelectron counting and improved energy reconstruction. The Eos experiment is the first large-scale optical detector to utilize these PMTs. Here, in this manuscript, we present a characterization of the R14688-100 single photoelectron response, such as the transit-time spreads, the dark-rates, and the afterpulsing. The single photoelectron response measurements are performed for the 206 PMTs that will be used in Eos.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ultra-Light Hybrid Composite Door Design, Manufacturing and Demonstration

New Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations require improved fuel efficiency of the future vehicle fleet. Weight reduction is key to achieving these targets. Replacing metallic body and chassis components with carbon fiber-reinforced composites offers the most weight reduction potential at up to 70%. Introduction of the BMW i3 and i8 in 2014 required mass production processes to meet 20,000+ units per year. Preforming with High Pressure Resin Transfer Molding has been implemented and meets rate, cost, and performance requirements. We will advance these technologies to develop an ultra-light driver’s side door for the vehicle with production rates of 40,000 units annually per plant in Detroit, Michigan. This project sought to employ a comprehensive systems approach for designing, manufacturing, and demonstrating an ultra-light hybrid composite automotive door. Composite structural components are integrated with other functional systems to reduce part count and full-system weight by a minimum of 42.5%. The approach will be demonstrated on a driver’s- side front door and will consider all fit, functional, safety, and cost requirements. These concepts will be evaluated using structural and crash simulations and linked to a manufacturing feasibility study, resulting in producible designs of an integrated door system. A cost model will evaluate part of the cost for the various designs and will ensure the cost target of less than $5 per pound of weight saved is met. Hybrid composites consisting of carbon, glass, and metal components will be included in our trade-off studies to satisfy these cost and performance goals.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

GPU-enabled extreme-scale turbulence simulations: Fourier pseudo-spectral algorithms at the exascale using OpenMP offloading

Fourier pseudo-spectral methods for nonlinear partial differential equations are of wide interest in many areas of advanced computational science, including direct numerical simulation of three-dimensional (3-D) turbulence governed by the Navier-Stokes equations in fluid dynamics. This paper presents a new capability for simulating turbulence at a new record resolution up to 35 trillion grid points, on the world's first exascale computer, Frontier, comprising AMD MI250x GPUs with HPE's Slingshot interconnect and operated by the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). Key programming strategies designed to take maximum advantage of the machine architecture involve performing almost all computations on the GPU which has the same memory capacity as the CPU, performing all-to-all communication among sets of parallel processes directly on the GPU, and targeting GPUs efficiently using OpenMP offloading for intensive number-crunching including 1-D Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT) performed using AMD ROCm library calls. With 99% of computing power on Frontier being on the GPU, leaving the CPU idle leads to a net performance gain via avoiding the overhead of data movement between host and device except when needed for some I/O purposes. Memory footprint including the size of communication buffers for MPI_ALLTOALL is managed carefully to maximize the largest problem size possible for a given node count. Detailed performance data including separate contributions from different categories of operations to the elapsed wall time per step are reported for five grid resolutions, from 2048 3 on a single node to 32768 3 on 4096 or 8192 nodes out of 9408 on the system. Both 1D and 2D domain decompositions which divide a 3D periodic domain into slabs and pencils respectively are implemented. The present code suite (labeled by the acronym GESTS, GPUs for Extreme Scale Turbulence Simulations) achieves a figure of merit (in grid points per second) exceeding goals set in the Center for Accelerated Application Readiness (CAAR) program for Frontier. The performance attained is highly favorable in both weak scaling and strong scaling, with notable departures only for 2048 3 where communication is entirely intra-node, and for 32768 3 , where a challenge due to small message sizes does arise. Communication performance is addressed further using a lightweight test code that performs all-to-all communication in a manner matching the full turbulence simulation code. Performance at large problem sizes is affected by both small message size due to high node counts as well as dragonfly network topology features on the machine, but is consistent with official expectations of sustained performance on Frontier. Overall, although not perfect, the scalability achieved at the extreme problem size of 32768 3 (and up to 8192 nodes — which corresponds to hardware rated at just under 1 exaflop/sec of theoretical peak computational performance) is arguably better than the scalability observed using prior state-of-the-art algorithms on Frontier's predecessor machine (Summit) at OLCF. New science results for the study of intermittency in turbulence enabled by this code and its extensions are to be reported separately in the near future.

3D fast Fourier transform↗
DOE OSTI2021

encore : an O ( N g2) estimator for galaxy N -point correlation functions

ABSTRACT We present a new algorithm for efficiently computing the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of a 3D density field for arbitrary N. This can be applied both to a discrete spectroscopic galaxy survey and a continuous field. By expanding the statistics in a separable basis of isotropic functions built from spherical harmonics, the NPCFs can be estimated by counting pairs of particles in space, leading to an algorithm with complexity $\mathcal {O}(N_\mathrm{g}^2)$ for Ng particles, or $\mathcal {O}(N_\mathrm{FFT}\log N_\mathrm{FFT})$ when using a Fast Fourier Transform with NFFT grid-points. In practice, the rate-limiting step for N > 3 will often be the summation of the histogrammed spherical harmonic coefficients, particularly if the number of radial and angular bins is large. In this case, the algorithm scales linearly with Ng. The approach is implemented in the encore code, which can compute the 3PCF, 4PCF, 5PCF, and 6PCF of a BOSS-like galaxy survey in ${\sim}100$ CPU-hours, including the corrections necessary for non-uniform survey geometries. We discuss the implementation in depth, along with its GPU acceleration, and provide practical demonstration on realistic galaxy catalogues. Our approach can be straightforwardly applied to current and future data sets to unlock the potential of constraining cosmology from the higher point functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification and Validation Tests of Gamma Library of MC2-3 for Coupled Neutron and Gamma Heating Calculation

For the accurate assessment of the heat generation rate in fast reactors, the gamma library of MC2 -3 and the MC2 -3 + GAMSOR procedure employing the coupled neutron and gamma heating calculation has been thoroughly verified against Monte Carlo results and validated using the ZPPR-15D gamma dose measurement data. NJOY outputs are post-processed in a consistent way with the NJOY procedure to avoid any missing data or double counting of data. Prompt heating for 379 out of 391 isotopes in the gamma library was verified against MCNP6.2 to within 1% relative error in total heating for most isotopes. For both a simple one-dimensional slab problem representing a sodium cooled fast reactor and the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) benchmark problem, the root-mean-square values of assembly power error were less than 0.5% for fuel assemblies, ~1% in blankets and ~1 to ~3% in reflectors compared to MCNP6.2 results. The most plausible cause for the 3% error in a reflector assembly is believed to be the error in the multigroup neutron cross sections for the reflector assembly. For validation, gamma doses measured with thermoluminiscent dosimeters (TLDs) in the ZPPR-15D experiment were calculated using GAMSOR. Due to the uncertainty in the TLD measurement with regards to the energy deposition of photons and neutrons, the validation data leads to a 12.7% uncertainty on the experimental measurement. With this uncertainty bound, the calculated doses all fell within one standard deviation of the measured value. Combined with the accurate calculation of reaction rate distributions and neutron spectrum measurements, these results indicate good agreement for the neutron and gamma heating calculations that were performed.

coupled neutron and gamma heating↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molybdenum oxide and sulfide active sites for isobutane dehydrogenation with methanol as a probe molecule

Molybdenum oxides and sulfides are alternative catalysts for several reactions, including alkane dehydrogenation. Correlations have been developed between reactivity and structure, but it is difficult to compare different catalysts without determining numbers of active sites. Here, methanol temperature programmed surface reaction (TPSR) is applied to bulk MoS 2 and a series of supported molybdenum oxides and sulfides used for isobutane dehydrogenation. Rates and deactivation behavior are similar between supported molybdenum oxides and sulfides. Coking increases with loading and correlates well with the fraction of Mo-based CO 2 -forming sites from methanol TPSR. Normalizing isobutane dehydrogenation rates by formaldehyde-forming sites unifies rates over oxide and sulfide materials. Further, these measurements confirm earlier hypotheses that MoS 2 and higher loadings of oxides and sulfides are intrinsically fast catalysts, but they have few active sites and are prone to coking. In general, methanol TPSR is proposed as an accessible route to count sites on both supported oxides and sulfides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mercury and Radiocesium Accumulation and Associations With Sublethal Endpoints in the Florida Green Watersnake ( Nerodia floridana )

Mercury (Hg) and radiocesium ( 137 Cs) are well-known environmental contaminants with the potential to impact the health of humans and wildlife. Snakes have several characteristics conducive to studying environmental contamination but have rarely been included in the monitoring of polluted sites. We investigated the bioaccumulation of Hg and 137 Cs and associations with sublethal effects (standard metabolic rate [SMR] and hemoparasite infections) in Florida green watersnakes (Nerodia floridana). We captured 78 snakes from three former nuclear cooling reservoirs on the US Department of Energy's Savannah River Site in South Carolina (USA). For captured snakes, we (1) determined whole-body 137 Cs, (2) quantified total Hg (THg) using snake tail clips, (3) conducted hemoparasite counts, and (4) measured the SMR. We used multiple regression models to determine associations among snake body size, capture location, sex, tail THg, whole-body 137 Cs, Hepatozoon spp. prevalence and parasitemia, and SMR. Average whole-body 137 Cs (0.23 ± 0.08 Becquerels [Bq]/g; range: 0.00–1.02 Bq/g) was correlated with snake body size and differed significantly by capture site (Pond B: 0.67 ± 0.05 Bq/g; Par Pond: 0.10 ± 0.02 Bq/g; Pond 2: 0.03 ± 0.02 Bq/g). Tail THg (0.33 ± 0.03 mg/kg dry wt; range: 0.16–2.10 mg/kg) was significantly correlated with snake body size but did not differ by capture site. We found no clear relationship between SMR and contaminant burdens. However, models indicated that the prevalence of Hepatozoon spp. in snakes was inversely related to increasing whole-body 137 Cs burdens. Our results indicate the bioaccumulation of Hg and 137 Cs in N. floridana and further demonstrate the utility of aquatic snakes as bioindicators. Furthermore, our results also suggest a decrease in Hepatozoon spp. prevalence related to increased burdens of 137 Cs. Although the results are intriguing, further research is needed to understand the dynamics between 137 Cs and Hepatozoon spp. infections in semiaquatic snakes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and Detection Limit of Spectroscopic-Grade Perovskite CsPbBr 3 Crystal for Hard X-Ray Detection

We report spectroscopic-grade single crystal detectors can register the energies of individual X-ray interactions enabling photon-counting systems with superior resolution over traditional photoconductive X-ray detection systems. Current technical challenges have limited the preparation of perovskite semiconductors for energy-discrimination X-ray photon-counting detection. Here, this work reports the deployment of a spectroscopic-grade CsPbBr 3 Schottky detector under reverse bias for continuum hard X-ray detection in both the photocurrent and spectroscopic schemes. High surface barriers of approximate to ≈ 1 eV are formed by depositing solid bismuth and gold contacts. The spectroscopic response under a hard X-ray source is assessed in resolving the characteristic X-ray peak. The methodology in enhancing X-ray sensitivity by controlling the X-ray energies and flux, and voltage, is described. The X-ray sensitivity varies between a few tens to over 8000 μC Gy air -1 cm -2 . The detectable dose rate of the CsPbBr 3 detectors is as low as 0.02 nGy air s -1 in the energy discrimination configuration. Finally, the unbiased CsPbBr 3 device forms a spontaneous contact potential difference of about 0.7 V enabling high quality of the CsPbBr 3 single crystals to operate in "passive" self-powered X-ray detection mode and the X-ray sensitivity is estimated as 14 μC Gy air -1 cm -2 . The great potential of spectroscopic-grade CsPbBr 3 devices for X-ray photon-counting systems is anticipated in this work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Methane Emissions Model to Assess Fuel Recovery Potential at Gas Well Sites Using On Site Compression

The U.S. natural gas production and consumption has increased 85.5% since 2005 primarily due to the unconventional production methods of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Natural gas used as a fuel has a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint than coal and petroleum due to lower Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions when combusted. However, the “greener” benefit to natural gas may be negated by leaks in production and transmission systems. Methane (CH4), the primary hydrocarbon in natural gas, has an estimated Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 28-36 over 100 years, meaning it can absorb 28-36 more energy than CO2 which has a GWP of 1.0. Natural gas well sites are prone to methane emissions, or leaks and irregular gas releases, vented to atmosphere throughout production and transmission. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has recently granted West Virginia University (WVU) funding under agreement DE-FOA-0002005, to “Advance technologies to mitigate methane emissions and increase the efficiency of the natural gas transportation infrastructure”. As part of this funding WVU was tasked with identifying and quantifying sources of methane emissions at unconventional well sites, processing this data, and developing a system to recapture these emissions. A 0-D Simulink model was developed, utilizing standardized methodologies, data from previously conducted studies, as well as collected data from well sites in the Marcellus shale play region. The model was developed to predict emission rates from various components at natural gas well sites as well as the potential to utilize these emissions as fuel for the natural gas powered compressor engines on-site. This model was utilized to run high, medium, and low cases for four identified emission sources, engine size, pneumatic controller count, liquid level production which dictates tank emissions, and compressor packing vent emissions. Due to discrepancies in transient tank emission data, a high and low emission factor for tanks was used, resulting in two sets of 81 executed cases, and 162 unique cases of total site emissions and potential for fuel consumption. Each of the cases were run over 86,400 seconds at a 1 Hz, representative of a full 24 hour day of operation. The fuel consumption offset an average of 557% of fuel consumption on an energy density basis across all 81 cases with the high tank emission factor with a maximum offset of 2334%. The fuel consumption offset was an average of 82.9% for all 81 cases with the low tank emission factor with a maximum offset of 337%. This study highlights flaws in the use of publicly available methane number calculations to determine natural gas’s suitability as an engine fuel as well as the lack of public data for transient liquid storage tank emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unprecedented Fluorophore Photostability Enabled by Low‐Loss Organic Hyperbolic Materials

Abstract The dynamics of photons in fluorescent molecules plays a key role in fluorescence imaging, optical sensing, organic photovoltaics, and displays. Photobleaching is an irreversible photodegradation process of fluorophores, representing a fundamental limitation in relevant optical applications. Chemical reagents are used to suppress the photobleaching rate but with exceptionally high specificity for each type of fluorophore. Here, using organic hyperbolic materials (OHMs), an optical platform to achieve unprecedented fluorophore photostability without any chemical specificity is demonstrated. A more than 500‐fold lengthening of the photobleaching lifetime and a 230‐fold increase in the total emitted photon counts are observed simultaneously. These exceptional improvements solely come from the low‐loss hyperbolic dispersion of OHM films and the large resultant Purcell effect in the visible spectral range. The demonstrated OHM platform may open up a new paradigm in nanophotonics and organic plasmonics for super‐resolution imaging and the engineering of light–matter interactions at the nanoscale.

Lee, Yeon Ui↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ptychographic phase retrieval by proximal algorithms

We derive a set of ptychography phase-retrieval iterative engines based on proximal algorithms originally developed in convex optimization theory, and discuss their connections with existing ones. The use of proximal operator creates a simple frame work that allows us to incorporate the effect of noise from a maximum-likelihood (ML) principle. We focus on three particular algorithms, namely proximal minimization, alternating direction method of multiplier and accelerated proximal gradient (APG). We benchmark their performance with numerical simulations, and discuss their optimal conditions for convergence and accuracy. An experimental dataset is used to demonstrate their effectiveness as well, in which case an array of cubic Au nanoparticles with a size of 50 nm is imaged. We show that with the presence of Poisson noise, a dataset with photon counts up to 10 4 at one detector pixel already requires ML-based methods to achieve a stable convergence. Among the three algorithms derived in this work, APG method is reported first time for its application in ptychographic reconstruction and shows superior performance in terms of both accuracy and convergence rate with a noisy dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyper Spectral Anomaly Detection

The HSA is a statistics based anomaly detection model. The model performs unsupervised anomaly detection, based on a datapoint's density and similarity within a dataset. Density and similarity data are encoded into an affinity matrix. The affinity matrix is evolved to summarize the data's structure on greater topographical scales within the data's function space. The set of evolved affinity matrices and an anomaly score vector are passed to a user defined penalized objective function. The penalized objective function of anomaly scores is then minimized. Data points where the absolute value of the z-scores of anomaly scores greater than a specified threshold are predicted as anomalies. A novel multi-filter feature has also been implemented. To reduce false positive rates, the multi-filter records the indexes of the HSA predictions. A new dataset and data loader are instantiated consisting of all the initial HSA predictions and non-anomalous data points in a 10% and 90% split respectively. The HSA is then run through this data set and a count of number of times a data point is predicted is kept. In this way the initial predictions may be compared with data spanning the entire dataset. After the multi-filter is complete, all datapoints will have an associated anomaly score, as well as a multi-filter prediction count to further filter the anomalous predictions.

Rogers, DempseyD [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2020

A ``Tail" of Two Cities: Fatality-based Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution in New York City and Cook County, IL

I describe $SIR$ modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in two U.S. urban environments, New York City (NYC) and Cook County, IL, from onset through the month of June, 2020. Since testing was not widespread early in the pandemic in the U.S., I do not use data on confirmed cases and rely solely on public fatality data to estimate model parameters. Fits to the first 20 days of data determine a degenerate combination of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, and the mean time to removal from the infectious population, $\gamma^{-1}$, with $\gamma (R_0-1) = 0.25 (0.21)$ inverse days for NYC (Cook County). Equivalently, the initial doubling time was $t_d = 2.8 (3.4)$ days for NYC (Cook). The early fatality data suggest that both locations had infections in early February. I model the mitigation measures implemented in mid-March in both locations (distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc) via a time-dependent reproduction number $R_t$ that declines monotonically from $R_0$ to a sma ller asymptotic value, with a parameterized functional form. The timing (mid-March) and duration (several days) of the transitions in $R_t$ appear well determined by the data. However, the fatality data determine only a degenerate combination of the parameters $R_0$, the percentage reduction in social contact due to mitigation measures, $X$, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), $f$. With flat priors, based on simulations the NYC model parameters have 95.45\% credible intervals of $R_0 = 3.0-5.4$, $X= 80-99.9\%$ and $f=2-6\%$, with $5-13\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. A strong external prior indicating a lower value of $f$ or of $\gamma^{-1}$ would imply lower values of $R_0$ and $X$ and higher percentage infection of the population. For Cook County, the evolution was qualitatively different: after mitigation measures were implemented, the daily fatality counts reached a plateau for about a month before tailing off. This is consistent with an $SIR$ model that exhibits ``critical slowing-down", in which $R_t$ plateaus ! at a value just above unity. For Cook County, the 95.45\% credible intervals for the model parameters are much broader and shifted downward, $R_0=1.4-4.7$, $X=26-54\%$, and $f=0.1-0.6\%$ with $15-88\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. Despite the apparently lower efficacy of its social contact reduction measures, Cook County has had significantly fewer fatalities per population than NYC, $D_\infty/N=100$ vs. 270 per 100,000. In the model, this is attributed to the lower inferred IFR for Cook; an external prior pointing to similar values of the IFR for the two locations would instead chalk up the difference in $D/N$ to differences in the relative growth rate of the disease. I derive a model-dependent threshold, $X^{crit}_e$, for `safe' re-opening, that is, for easing of contact reduction that would not trigger a second wave; for NYC, the models predict that increasing social contact by more than 20\% from post-mitigation levels will lead to renewed spread, while for Cook County the threshold value is very uncertain, given the parameter degeneracies. The timing of 2nd-wave growth will depend on the amplitude of contact increase relative to $X^{crit}_e$ and on the asymptotic growth rate, and the impact in terms of fatalities will depend on the parameter $f$.

Frieman, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature dependence of vacancy/self-interstitial recombination volumes in copper

We use molecular dynamics to calculate rate coefficients for recombination of vacancies with self-interstitial atoms (SIAs) in Cu at temperatures from 300 to 700 K. From these results, we calculate vacancy/SIA recombination volumes and find that they decrease from around 290 (where is one atomic volume) at 300 K to 160 at 500 K and above. By counting the number of distinct pathways by which a stable SIA may migrate to a site of spontaneous recombination with a nearby vacancy, we find a lower bound estimate of 168 for the recombination volume. We furthermore rationalize its temperature dependence based on differences between the activation energies for recombination and SIA migration. Furthermore, our work sheds light on the fundamental nature of the recombination volume and provides information that may be incorporated into multiscale models of radiation response in solids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗