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Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy
The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.
Clades of huge phages from across Earth’s ecosystems
Bacteriophages typically have small genomes and depend on their bacterial hosts for replication. Here we sequenced DNA from diverse ecosystems and found hundreds of phage genomes with lengths of more than 200 kilobases (kb), including a genome of 735 kb, which is—to our knowledge—the largest phage genome to be described to date. Thirty-five genomes were manually curated to completion (circular and no gaps). Expanded genetic repertoires include diverse and previously undescribed CRISPR–Cas systems, transfer RNAs (tRNAs), tRNA synthetases, tRNA-modification enzymes, translation-initiation and elongation factors, and ribosomal proteins. The CRISPR–Cas systems of phages have the capacity to silence host transcription factors and translational genes, potentially as part of a larger interaction network that intercepts translation to redirect biosynthesis to phage-encoded functions. In addition, some phages may repurpose bacterial CRISPR–Cas systems to eliminate competing phages. We phylogenetically define the major clades of huge phages from human and other animal microbiomes, as well as from oceans, lakes, sediments, soils and the built environment. We conclude that the large gene inventories of huge phages reflect a conserved biological strategy, and that the phages are distributed across a broad bacterial host range and across Earth’s ecosystems.
High Temperature Monolithic Biochar Supercapacitor Using Ionic Liquid Electrolyte
A supercapacitor comprising of two binder-free biochar monolith electrodes and 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate based ionic liquid electrolyte was studied at room temperature and 140°C by cyclic voltammetry, constant-current charge-discharge, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. The supercapacitor exhibits an operating voltage window of approximately 6 V. It is found that increasing temperature from room temperature to 140°C considerably increases its specific mass capacity and its charge-discharge rate by a factor of approximately 10. The specific capacity of the supercapacitor calculated from the voltammetric measurements depended on scan rates. At 140°C, a capacity of 21 F g -1 was obtained at 5 mV s -1 and this value decreases to around 10 F g -1 at 100 mV s -1 ; the constant-current charge-discharge profiles exhibit pseudo-linear voltage-time responses during the discharges. The supercapacitor shows good stability characteristics of no obvious performance decay after 1000 cycles within a voltage window of 6 V. Electrochemical impedance spectra of the supercapacitor display a wide linear region corresponding to diffusion control. The energy densities of the supercapacitor that are normalized to the total active electrode materials are higher than 20 Wh kg -1 when its power density is lower than 2000 W kg -1 . In conclusion, these facts suggest that the high-temperature biochar supercapacitor would be a promising energy-storage device with high energy and power density.
Adaptive multisatellite systems for aeronautical services.
The use of satellite systems to provide operational communications and ATC services to aircraft flying the oceanic routes has been the subject of considerable interest recently. Since most of the link factors are functions of geometry and the aircraft traffic density varies with time, the satellite power needed to meet the communication demand varies considerably in an oceanic area as a function of both location and time. An adaptive system that tailors the use of system resources to the needs of the user can result in an additional system capacity improvement by a factor of between two and three. Results of studies conducted to date indicate that simple implementation of adaptive techniques in aeronautical satellite systems is feasible. Study is continuing in this area and on the application of satellite multibeam techniques to gain even further increase in capacity.
Potential impacts of advanced technologies on the ATC capacity of high-density terminal areas
Advanced technologies for airborne systems (automatic flight control, flight displays, navigation) and for ground ATC systems (digital communications, improved surveillance and tracking, automated decision-making) create the possibility of advanced ATC operations and procedures which can bring increased capacity for runway systems. A systematic analysis is carried out to identify certain such advanced ATC operations, and then to evaluate the potential benefits occurring over time at typical US high-density airports (Denver and Boston). The study is divided into three parts: (1) A Critical Examination of Factors Which Determine Operational Capacity of Runway Systems at Major Airports, is an intensive review of current US separation criteria and terminal area ATC operations. It identifies 11 new methods to increase the capacity of landings and takeoffs for runway systems; (2) Development of Risk Based Separation Criteria is the development of a rational structure for establishing reduced ATC separation criteria which meet a consistent Target Level of Safety using advanced technology and operational procedures; and (3) Estimation of Capacity Benefits from Advanced Terminal Area Operations - Denver and Boston, provides an estimate of the overall annual improvement in runway capacity which might be expected at Denver and Boston from using some of the advanced ATC procedures developed in Part 1. Whereas Boston achieved a substantial 37% increase, Denver only achieved a 4.7% increase in its overall annual capacity.
From Fossil Fuels to Green Mines: Understanding Hydrogen-Shale Interactions for Secure Underground Storage
Hydrogen-powered mining trucks are rapidly gaining traction as a key driver of decarbonization in the mining industry. This surge necessitates a decisive shift towards renewable energy sources, primarily for hydrogen production. However, the inherent intermittency of renewables poses a challenge for continuous operations, demanding efficient storage solutions for hydrogen fuel. Hydrogen, derived from renewables, requires large-scale storage, with underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted oil and gas reservoirs projected to provide this capacity. An impermeable seal (caprock) overlying depleted reservoirs is crucial for preventing leakage and ensuring secure storage. Shale, a potential caprock, has been recognized for its effectiveness in containing natural gas for geological time-periods. This study investigates the impact of hydrogen exposure on the matrix permeability of Marcellus shale, a key factor influencing its sealing capacity. A novel time-resolved approach was employed, measuring matrix permeability after each exposure to understand the dynamic interactions between hydrogen and the shale matrix. Samples were exposed to hydrogen in pressure reactions at realistic reservoir conditions at varying time durations. Preliminary results reveal an initial increase in permeability, while subsequent exposures show a decrease, indicating potential microstructural changes.
Influence of hydrophilic groups and metal-ion adsorption on polymer-chain conformation of amidoxime-based uranium adsorbents
In this study, we focus on the influence of hydrophilic groups and metal-ion loading on adsorbent polymer conformation, which controls access to adsorption sites and may limit adsorption capacity. Gaining a better understanding of the factors that influence conformation may yield higher-capacity adsorbents. Polyamidoxime (PAO), deuterated-PAO polyacrylic acid diblock copolymers (d-PAO-b-PAA), and randomly configured copolymers (PAO-co-PAA) were synthesized and characterized by neutron reflectometry in air and D 2 O. For d-PAO-b-PAA, characterization was also performed after alkali conditioning and in simulated seawater. PAO and PAO-co-PAA, with similar molecular weight and grafting density, extended from 95-Å thickness in air to 180 and 280-Å in D 2 O, respectively. This result suggests that polymer swelling may cause the additional adsorption capacity observed when polymer hydrophilicity increases. Two d-PAO-b-PAA samples, A and B, with a d-PAO thickness of 55-Å swelled to 110-Å and 140-Å, respectively, with an overall thickness increase of ~160% in D 2 O. After alkali conditioning, molecular interactions increased the density of PAA near the PAO-PAA interface, while the d-PAO thickness only decreased by ~10 Å. The d-PAO thickness of both samples declined to ~90-Å after adsorption in simulated seawater due to polymer-chain crosslinking. In conclusion, these results are expected to aid in improving adsorbent synthesis to increase uranium capacity.
Signatures for spinons in the quantum spin liquid candidate Ca 10 Cr 7 O 28
We present new experimental low-temperature heat capacity and detailed dynamical spin-structure factor data for the quantum spin-liquid candidate material Ca 10 Cr 7 O 28 . The measured heat capacity shows an almost-perfect linear temperature dependence in the range $0.1K ≲T≲ 0.5K$, reminiscent of fermionic spinon degrees of freedom. The spin-structure factor exhibits two energy regimes of strong signal which display rather different but solely diffuse scattering features. We theoretically describe these findings by an effective spinon-hopping model which crucially relies on the existence of strong ferromagnetically coupled triangles in the system. Our spinon theory is shown to naturally reproduce the overall weight distribution of the measured spin-structure factor. Particularly, we argue that various different observed characteristic properties of the spin-structure factor and the heat capacity consistently indicate the existence of a spinon Fermi surface. A closer analysis of the heat capacity at the lowest accessible temperatures hints toward the presence of weak f-wave spinon-pairing terms inducing a small partial gap along the Fermi surface (except for discrete nodal Dirac points) and suggesting an overall Z2 quantum spin-liquid scenario for Ca 10 Cr 7 O 28 .
Li‐ and Mn‐Rich Cathode Materials: Challenges to Commercialization
The lithium‐ and manganese‐rich (LMR) layered structure cathodes exhibit one of the highest specific energies (≈900 W h kg −1 ) among all the cathode materials. However, the practical applications of LMR cathodes are still hindered by several significant challenges, including voltage fade, large initial capacity loss, poor rate capability and limited cycle life. Herein, we review the recent progress and in depth understandings on the application of LMR cathode materials from a practical point of view. Several key parameters of LMR cathodes that affect the LMR/graphite full‐cell operation are systematically analyzed. These factors include the first‐cycle capacity loss, voltage fade, powder tap density, and electrode density. New approaches to minimize the detrimental effects of these factors are highlighted in this work. We also provide perspectives for the future research on LMR cathode materials, focusing on addressing the fundamental problems of LMR cathodes while keeping practical considerations in mind.
Offline Arterial Signal Timing Optimization based on Virtual Phase Link Model - A Real-world Case Study
Conventional signal timing for arterial usually takes bottom-up approaches. Engineers optimize each individual intersection first and then coordinate them by adjusting the offsets. This work is based on the Virtual Phase-Link (VPL) model, a street traffic model designed for online traffic model predictive control, to obtain a top-down offline arterial signal timing. We Studied the Shallowford Rd. in Chattanooga, TN and found that the inconsistency in intersection capacities along the arterial could lead to some intersections becoming bottlenecks. Signal timing is a significant factor that affect the intersection capacities. We realized that the VPL-based model can guarantee the consistency in intersections along an arterial. We therefore adopted the VPL-based model and developed an offline signal timing optimization approach. The proposed timing derived from the VPL-based offline signal timing optimization showed very good results in simulation. The Chattanooga Department of Transportation adopted the optimized timing obtained from the proposed approach and gave positive feedbacks to the research team. We also collected field experiment data, which demonstrated overall energy reductions and speed improvements on some sections of the Shallowford Rd. arterial. We will continue the experiment when the COVID-19 pandemic impact subsides to have a more robust quantitative evaluation.
Data Challenges in Estimating the Capacity Value of Solar Photovoltaics
We examine the robustness of solar capacity-value estimates to three important data issues. The first is the sensitivity to using hourly averaged as opposed to subhourly solar-insolation data. The second is the sensitivity to errors in recording and interpreting load data. The third is the sensitivity to using modeled as opposed to measured solar-insolation data. We demonstrate that capacity-value estimates of solar are sensitive to all three of these factors, with potentially large errors in the capacity-value estimate in a particular year. If multiple years of data are available, the biases introduced by using hourly averaged solar-insolation can be smoothed out. Multiple years of data will not necessarily address the other data-related issues that we examine. Our analysis calls into question the accuracy of a number of solar capacity-value estimates relying exclusively on modeled solar-insolation data that are reported in the literature (including our own previous works). Our analysis also suggests that multiple years' historical data should be used for remunerating solar generators for their capacity value in organized wholesale electricity markets.
Ex Situ and Operando XRD and XAS Analysis of MoS2: A Lithiation Study of Bulk and Nanosheet Materials
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Lattice expansion and ligand twist during CO2 adsorption in flexible Cu bipyridine metal–organic frameworks
Flexible metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) can show exceptional selectivity and capacity for adsorption of CO 2 . The incorporation of CO 2 into flexible MOFs that have Cu 2+ coordination centers and organic pillar ligands is accompanied by a distortion of the framework lattice arising from chemical interactions between these components and CO 2 molecules. CO 2 adsorption yields a reproducible lattice expansion that is enabled by the rotation of the pillar ligands. The structures of Cu 2 (pzdc) 2 (bpy) and Cu 2 (pzdc) 2 (bpe), CPL-2 and CPL-5, were evaluated using in situ synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction at room temperature at CO 2 gas pressures up to 50 atm. The structural parameters exhibit hysteresis between pressurization and depressurization. The pore volume within CPL-2 and CPL-5 increases at elevated CO 2 pressure due to a combination of the pillar ligand rotation and the overall expansion of the lattice. Volumetric CO 2 adsorption measurements up to 50 atm reveal adsorption behavior consistent with the structural results, including a rapid uptake of CO 2 at low pressure, saturation above 20 atm, and hysteresis evident as a retention of CO 2 during depressurization. Finally, a significantly greater CO 2 uptake is observed in CPL-5 in comparison with predictions based on CO 2 pressure-induced expansion of the pore volume available for adsorption, indicating that the flexibility of the CPL structures is a key factor in enhancing adsorption capacity.
Heat-and-Mass Transfer Intensification in Saturated-Steam Generators in NPP with VVER as a Means for Increasing Efficiency and Reliability
The intensification of steam generation in combination with improvement of the temperature regime, specifically, with the elimination of temperature fluctuations of the loaded components of the apparatus (heat-exchange tubes, warming-medium headers) increases the steam-generation capacity and eliminates the factors causing damage to the structural elements of steam generators. The possibility of intensifying heat-and-mass transfer on the basis of the experience gained in operating steam generators in NPP with VVER (horizontal) and NPP in foreign countries (vertical) is examined. It is concluded on the basis of the analysis that it is expedient to develop a domestically produced apparatus of the vertical type, which will make possible well-founded production of steam generators for NPP with VVER in the future.
Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India
Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.
The role of moisture in MgCl 2 salt: A multiscale approach to TES performance
This study presents a comprehensive multiscale analysis to evaluate the influence of moisture on the thermal performance of thermal energy storage systems using magnesium chloride (MgCl 2 ) as the phase-changing material. The system uses graphite foam with 90% relative density to enhance thermal conductivity. The analysis includes thermal conductivity calculations and specific heat capacity for different hydrate phases of MgCl 2 : Anhydrous, Mono, Di, Tetra, and Hexa. These properties were evaluated for the first time using the phonon density of states from Density Functional Theory simulations. Results showed that thermal conductivity decreased, while specific heat capacity increased by a factor of two as the phase changed from anhydrous to hexahydrate. Meso-scale models were created to account for the anisotropy of graphite foam and property variations of the MgCl 2 hydrate phases. Asymptotic Expansion homogenization simulations determined the anisotropic thermal conductivity for all phases. This unique methodology improved simulation accuracy, which matched experimental data for anhydrous MgCl 2 . A parametric study examined various operating conditions and their effect on TES performance. It revealed that higher charging temperatures did not enhance exergy efficiency, but increased discharge mass flow rates improved it due to better heat transfer. Thermal performance evaluated by the exergy efficiency remained consistent across hydrate systems under the tested conditions. Furthermore, the study suggests that this uniformity is linked to missing key data, particularly latent heat and melting point for different hydrates. Overall, it highlights the importance of multiscale effects and accurate material properties in designing and optimizing TES systems.
Applications of neutron radiography for the nuclear power industry
The World Conference on Neutron Radiography (WCNR) and International Topical Meeting on Neutron Radiography (ITMNR) series have been running over 35 years. The most recent event, ITMNR-8, focused on industrial applications and was the first time this series was hosted in China. In China, more than twenty new nuclear power plants are in construction and plans have been announced to increase the nuclear capacity further by a factor of three within fifteen years. There are additional prospects in many other nations. Neutron tests were vital during previous developments of materials and components for nuclear power applications, as reported in this conference series. For example a majority of the 140 papers in the Proceedings of the First WCNR are for the benefit of the nuclear power industry. Included are reviews of the diverse techniques being applied in Europe, Japan, the United States, and at many other centers. Many of those techniques are being utilized and advanced to the present time. Neutron radiography of irradiated nuclear fuel provides more comprehensive information about the internal condition of irradiated nuclear fuel than any other non-destructive technique to date. Applications include examination of nuclear waste, nuclear fuels, cladding, control elements, and other critical components. In this paper, the techniques developed and applied internationally for the nuclear power industry since the earliest years are reviewed, and the question is asked whether neutron test techniques can be of value in development of the present and future generations of nuclear power plants world-wide.