SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Capacity estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

This dataset provides estimated hourly electricity demand for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016-2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components: (1) Weighted averages of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. (2) Weighted averages of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector Annual county-level retail sales are estimated by aggregating utility-reported sales to the state level and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of state population. Annual county-level direct use is calculated by aggregating power plant-reported direct use values. Annual county-level on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity is estimated by aggregating utility-reported net metering data to determine the amount of DPV-generated electricity sold back to the grid for each state, subtracting those values from modeled state-level DPV generation estimates, and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of statewide modeled DPV generation. The open-source Python code used to develop this dataset is available at "Historical Load Data Repository" link below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Processing of Coal and Coal Waste to Produce Graphite for Fast-Charging Lithium-Ion Battery Anode

The University of North Dakota (UND) Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in collaboration with the UND Center for Process Engineering Research (CPER), conducted a project to validate two technologies capable of converting North Dakota lignite and lignite coal waste to high-quality graphite for fast-charging lithium-ion battery (LIB) anode. The project was conducted over about 3 years from April 7, 2022, to July 6, 2025. The two technological paths pursued in this project include path A – direct conversion of coal or coal waste to graphite by the upgraded carbon ores to products (UCOP) process being developed at the EERC and path B – lignite-derived coal tar pitch (CTP) conversion to graphite (CTP2G) process being developed at CPER. The results from this project validate the two technological approaches and are expected to be an integral part of a portfolio of emerging technologies for making high-quality graphite not only from North Dakota lignite, but from all ranks of U.S. domestic coal and coal waste resources. The quality of the graphite produced by these technologies is high enough for various applications, including batteries for the fast-growing electric vehicle industry, energy storage applications, electric arc furnace electrodes for steel production, and graphene production, among others. Although the two technologies can produce high-quality graphite, they are fundamentally different in that the UCOP technology provides a direct path to transform coal to graphite, while the CTP2G technology needs to go through a CTP intermediate and a coking process for the intermediate, which requires a special facility to accomplish. For application in the industry, the UCOP process is designed to be more flexible, with feedstock to include potentially any carbonaceous material such as all coal ranks and biochar, while the CTP2G process is designed to utilize CTP as the starting precursor. The key project accomplishments include the following: • Successful preparation of high-quality synthetic graphite from North Dakota lignite coal/coal wastes and lignite-derived CTP. • Patent application has been filed for the UCOP process and an internal invention disclosure has been filed for the CTP2G process. • The produced graphite performs better than a commercial battery-grade sample in LIB coin cells, especially fast-charging capability, stability, and long-duration cycling. • Coin-type Li-ion half-cells with CTP2G graphite showed excellent performance, with >370 mAh/g capacity, >90% initial coulombic efficiency, and 93%/67% retention at 1C/2C rate, which outperforms commercial graphite in charging speed, stability, and cycling. • Results of fabricated 18650 cells were consistent with the observations in coin cells. • Preliminary techno-economic analysis (TEA) estimates for the UCOP technology indicate a manufacturing cost of about $\$$39/kg based on 50-metric ton/year capacity. • Preliminary TEA estimates for the CTP2G technology indicate a market price of about $\$$7107/ton ($\$$7/kg) based on 22,000-ton/year production capacity.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimated Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

In this data descriptor, we present hourly electricity demand estimates for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016 to 2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components for each county. The first is the weighted average of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. The second is the weighted average of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Perennialization and Cover Cropping Mitigate Soil Carbon Loss from Residue Harvesting

While the US Midwest is expected to serve as a primary feedstock source for cellulosic biofuel production, the impacts of residue harvesting on soil organic carbon (SOC) may greatly limit sustainable production capacity. However, viable feedstock production could be realized through adoption of management practices and cropping systems that offset residue‐harvest‐induced SOC losses. Sequestration of SOC can be enhanced by increasing the duration of crop soil cover through cover or double cropping or cultivation of dedicated perennials. However, assessing the efficacy of such options across sites and over long periods is experimentally challenging. Hence, we use the Environmental Productivity Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to provide such an assessment. Model‐data integration was used to calibrate and evaluate model suitability, which exhibited reasonable effectiveness through R 2 of 0.97 and 0.63 for SOC stock and yield, respectively. Long‐term simulations indicate considerable capacity for offsetting SOC loss. Incorporating rye ( Secale cereal L.) into continuous corn ( Zea mays L.) and corn–soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.] systems offset the SOC losses induced by harvesting 21.2 and 38.3% of available stover, respectively. Similarly, converting 20.4% of corn–soybean land to miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus J.M. Greef & Deuter ex Hodkinson & Renvoize) or 27.5% of land to switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) offset the SOC impacts of harvesting 60% of stover from the remaining corn–soybean lands. These responses indicate that adoption of such measures would sizably affect the life cycle consequences of residue‐derived biofuels and expand estimates of sustainable cellulosic feedstock production capacity from the US Midwest. Core Ideas EPIC suitably assessed SOC under annual, cover, double, and perennial crops. Perennial cultivation offset the SOC losses of considerable residue harvesting. Rye double crops offset sizable residue‐induced SOC losses. Adoption could greatly expand Midwestern sustainable biofuel production capacity.

Jones, Curtis D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions

We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Representation in Power System Models

Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.

capacity expansion models↗

DOE OSTI2025

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Reducing Subjectivity in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making (Presentation); NREL(National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Geothermal exploration projects have a significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment are 1) understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and 2) when to walk away from a site. Current methodologies for exploration decision-making are formulatedby subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go/no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on alocation. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of aparticular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basicgeothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This secondapproach was determined to be less subjective, since numerical inputs come from the collected data. And it helps to facilitate communication between project managers and exploration geologists in making objective go/no-go decisions throughout the different project phases.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was determined to be less subjective, since it requires less subjectivity in the input values.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Safety issues of defective lithium-ion batteries: identification and risk evaluation

Lithium-ion batteries inevitably suffer minor damage or defects caused by external mechanical abusive loading, e.g. , penetration, deformation, and scratch without triggering a hard/major short circuit. The replacement of cells becomes a dilemma if the safety risk of the defective batteries remains unknown. Herein, by introducing a representative defect form, i.e. , screw indentation, we demonstrate the safety characteristics of defective batteries. We prove that defective batteries have a significantly increased thermal risk and deteriorated mechanical integrity, but can go undetected due to prompt voltage recovery and insignificant local temperature increase. We discover that the voltage curve within the first few cycles contains sufficient information to identify defective batteries from otherwise good ones and propose methodologies to monitor the cells. Capacity loss and current leakage are two characteristics that can be estimated using the voltage curve. According to the defect size and position, the capacity loss could be 1 to 10 2 mA h and the leakage current could be 5–50 mA. Results remove the barriers for defective battery safety risk evaluation, enabling identification, monitoring, and early warning of minor damaged batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Design and demonstration of a direct air capture system with moisture-driven CO 2 delivery into aqueous medium

Two direct air capture (DAC) systems were designed and demonstrated to passively capture CO 2 from ambient air and use moisture to release the CO2 into an alkaline medium. A bench-scale system delivering ∼1 g CO 2 d –1 was demonstrated in a laminar flow hood, and a small pilot-scale system that could deliver ∼100 g CO 2 d –1 was operated outdoors in a 4.2 m 2 raceway pond. Novel elongated mesh-tube packets containing anion-exchange resin (AER) beads were found to reduce drying and CO 2 loading time 4.3-fold compared to larger mesh bags. Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) estimates the cost of capturing CO 2 into an alkaline solution, suitable for cultivating photosynthetic microorganisms, to be $\$229$ per tonne for a practical scenario based on current results and $\$72$ per tonne for an aspirational scenario considering improvements to sorbent capacity, hydrophobicity, and sorbent lifetime. TEA further estimates an additional $\$110$ per tonne to extract CO 2 from solution, purify it, and compress it to 15 MPa, suitable for sequestration. Furthermore, moisture-driven processes have the potential to use up to 87% less energy than thermal and/or vacuum swing DAC by using energy from water evaporation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Field-scale estimation of soil properties from spectral induced polarization tomography

Estimates of soil properties such as Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), water content, grain size characteristics, and permeability are important in geotechnical engineering, water resources, and agriculture. We develop a non-intrusive approach to estimate these properties in the field using spectral induced polarization (SIP) tomography. This geophysical method provides information about the frequency dependence of the complex electrical conductivity of porous media. Using 18 soil samples collected from a Bordeaux vineyard, we first conducted a laboratory study using SIP over the frequency range 10 mHz-45 kHz. The laboratory data were used to confirm the accuracy of a recently developed dynamic Stern layer petrophysical model. The results are consistent with published values from previous works using soils. A comparison was made by comparing the field complex conductivity spectra and the experimental data at two locations where core samples were obtained. The model was then used in concert with field data to image the spatial distribution of CEC, water content, permeability, and mean grain size along a vineyard transect. For clay and sandy textures found in the field, measured and estimated CEC agree rather well (from 6 to 40% discrepancy). Furthermore, our approach provides an efficient way to estimate important soil properties in a non-invasive manner, in high resolution, and over field-relevant scales of the critical zone of the Earth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Response surface modeling of CO 2 dynamic storage efficiency factor in high permeability thick sandstones

In order to utilize as much of the pore space for CO 2 storage in high permeability thick saline aquifers, it is vital to investigate the interactions of injected CO 2 with formation brine and rock. In order to quantify the displacement process, we investigate the dynamic storage efficiency factor (DSEF) for saline aquifers where pressure increase is minimal during the injection phase. Dimensionless numbers are derived from basic governing equations, constitutive equations, initial and boundary conditions using the inspection analysis. Then using the Hammersley sequence sampling, 178 numerical experiments are designed, and a compositional reservoir simulator is used to perform these simulations. In the next step, response surface regression analysis is used to establish a relationship between DSEF obtained from the numerical simulations and the corresponding dimensionless numbers. The simulation results show that for the studied conditions the underground dynamics is mostly influenced by the gravity number, followed by effective aspect ratio and dip numbers. The results from the response surface regression analysis are used to develop a correlation, which can be used to estimate the dynamic CO 2 storage capacity of relevant zones. This study provides quantitative measures for the different competing mechanisms involved in underground displacement of fluids in CO 2 geological storage, which can serve as a useful tool during planning phase of storage projects.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic evaluation of industrial heat pump applications in US pulp and paper, textile, and automotive industries

Industrial process heat decarbonization through electrification could contribute significantly to climate change mitigation efforts. In the US industry, thermal processes accounted for more than two-thirds of the total final energy demand in 2021. Cross-cutting electrification technologies like industrial heat pumps are suitable for the process heat supply to several industrial unit operations in a sustainable way while also improving overall energy efficiency. This study employs a bottom-up approach to investigate the techno-enviro-economic potentials of deploying high-temperature and steam-generating heat pumps in US textile, pulp and paper, and automotive sectors in different timeframes. The results show that the annual technical potential energy and CO 2 savings by electrifying heat supply are 310 PJ (or 36% of the projected energy demand) and 28 MtCO 2 (or 71% of the projected CO 2 emissions) in 2050 respectively, however, these incur additional costs in each sector (ranging between 5 and 18 $\$$/GJ). The required heating capacity of industrial heat pumps is estimated at 15 GW, which translates roughly into a market of over 6000 heat pump units and an investment volume of $\$$7 billion in the studied processes. Although there may be individual cost-effective opportunities for electrifying heat supply in specific industrial sites, the overall costs are estimated to be high in the three industrial sectors due to the large disparity between electricity and natural gas prices and low heat source temperatures. To overcome the identified techno-economic barriers, comprehensive action plans for different stakeholders are also given. This study provides novel insights that should inform policymakers’ and executives’ decisions about the electrification of the current and future US industrial heat supply in relevant industrial sectors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗