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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Biogeochemical modeling at mass extinction boundaries

The causes of major mass extinctions is a subject of considerable interest to those concerned with the history and evolution of life on earth. The primary objectives of the proposed plan of research are: (1) to develop quantitative time-dependent biogeochemical cycle models, coupled with an ocean atmosphere in order to improve the understanding of global scale physical, chemical, and biological processes that control the distribution of elements important for life at times of mass extinctions; and (2) to develop a comprehensive data base of the best available geochemical, isotopic, and other relevant geologic data from sections across mass extinction boundaries. These data will be used to constrain and test the biogeochemical model. These modeling experiments should prove useful in: (1) determining the possible cause(s) of the environmental changes seen at bio-event boundaries; (2) identifying and quantifying little-known feedbacks among the oceans, atmosphere, and biosphere; and (3) providing additional insights into the possible responses of the earth system to perturbations of various timescales. One of the best known mass extinction events marks the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary (66 Myr ago). Data from the K/T boundary are used here to constrain a newly developed time-dependent biogeochemical cycle model that is designed to study transient behavior of the earth system. Model results predict significant fluctuations in ocean alkalinity, atmospheric CO2, and global temperatures caused by extinction of calcareous plankton and reduction in the sedimentation rates of pelagic carbonates and organic carbon. Oxygen-isotome and other paleoclimatic data from K/T time provide some evidence that such climatic fluctuations may have occurred, but stabilizing feedbacks may have acted to reduce the ocean alkalinity and carbon dioxide fluctuations.

Rampino, M. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Equilibrium Response of Climate and Composition to Lightning

Climate change can affect atmospheric composition through perturbation of natural processes, leading to complex feedbacks. The primary atmospheric oxidants OH and ozone are very sensitive to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) from lightning, and therefore so are the subsequent chemical perturbations to long-lived greenhouse gases (e.g., methane) and aerosol chemistry and physics. Meanwhile, cloud electrification responds to both meteorology and composition (aerosol particles). Key to understanding the ultimate impact of lightning on air quality and climate is the long-term methane feedback. Here, we present simulations from the GISS ModelE2.1 chemistry-climate model in which we isolate the response of Earth’s radiative budget and composition to lightning NO x in the present day and at the end of this century by allowing the model to re-equilibrate following removal of the source. Whereas lightning initially contributes to surface ozone enhancements, longer-term responses amplified by the methane lifetime feedback reduce surface ozone on multi-decadal time scales in the northern midlatitudes. Lightning consequently contributes a strong negative radiative effect in the present day (-0.5 W m -2 ), stronger than that estimated for the anthropogenic NOx source. In addition to influencing tropospheric composition, we find significant changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition. We test the sensitivity of our results to multiple parameterizations for global lightning activity.

Lightning↗
NASA NTRS1982

Terrestrial cooling and solar variability

Observational evidence from surface temperature records is presented and discussed which suggests a significant cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to the present. This cooling trend is associated with an increase of the latitudinal gradient of temperature and the lapse rate, as predicted by climate models with decreased solar input and feedback mechanisms. Evidence suggests that four of these 80- to 100-year cycles of global surface temperature fluctuation may have occurred, and in succession, from 1600 to the present. Interpretation of sunspot activity were used to infer a direct thermal response of terrestrial temperature to solar variability on the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle (90 years, an amplitude of the 11-year cycles). A physical link between the sunspot activity and the solar parameter is hypothesized. Observations of sensible heat flux by stationary planetary waves and transient eddies, as well as general circulation modeling results of these processes, were examined from the viewpoint of the hypothesis of cooling due to reduced insolation.

Agee, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Observational determination of the greenhouse effect

Satellite measurements are used to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect, defined here as the infrared radiation energy trapped by atmospheric gases and clouds. The greenhouse effect is found to increase significantly with sea surface temperature. The rate of increase gives compelling evidence for the positive feedback between surface temperature, water vapor and the greenhouse effect; the magnitude of the feedback is consistent with that predicted by climate models. This study demonstrates an effective method for directly monitoring, from space, future changes in the greenhouse effect.

Raval, A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Atlas of the Earth's radiation budget as measured by Nimbus-7: May 1979 to May 1980

This atlas describes the seasonal changes in the Earth's radiation budget for the 13-month period, May 1979 to May 1980. It helps to illustrate the strong feedback mechanisms by which the Earth's climate interacts with the top-of-the-atmosphere insolation to modify the energy that various regions absorb from the Sun. Cloud type and cloud amount, which are linked to the surface temperature and the regional climate, are key elements in this interaction. Annual, seasonal, and monthly maps of the albedo, outgoing longwave and net radiation, noontime cloud cover, and mean diurnal surface temperatures are presented. Annual and seasonal net cloud forcing maps are also given. All of the quantities were derived from Nimbus-7 satellite measurements except for the temperatures, which were used in the cloud detection algorithm and came originally from the Air Force 3-dimensional nephanalysis dataset. The seasonal changes are described. The interaction of clouds and the radiation budget is briefly discussed.

Kyle, H. Lee↗
NASA NTRS1992

Venus: The case for a wet origin and a runaway greenhouse

To one interested in atmospheric evolution, the most intriguing aspect of our neighboring planet Venus is its lack of water. Measurements made by Pioneer Venus and by Several Venera spacecraft indicate that the present water abundance in Venus' lower atmosphere is of the order of 20 to 200 ppmv, or 3 x 10( exp -6) to 3 x 10 (exp -5) of the amount of water in Earth's oceans. The exact depletion factor is uncertain, in part because of an unexplained vertical gradient in H2O concentration in the lowest 10 km of the venusian atmosphere, but the general scarcity of water is well established. The interesting question, then, is: Was venus deficient in water when it formed and, if not, where did its water go? The conclusion that Venus was originally wet is consistent with its large endowment of other volatiles and with the enhanced D/H ratio in the present atmosphere. The most likely mechanism by which Venus could have lost its water is by the development of a runaway or moist greenhouse atmosphere followed by photodissociation of water vapor and escape of hydrogen to space. Climate model calculations that neglect cloud albedo feedback predict the existence of two critical transitions in atmospheric behavior at high solar fluxes: (1) at a solar flux of approximately 1.1 times the value at Earth's orbit, S(o), the abundance of stratospheric water vapor increases dramatically, permitting rapid escape of hydrogen to space (termed a moist greenhouse) and (2) at a solar flux of approximately 1.4 S(o), the oceans vaporize entirely, creating a true runaway greenhouse. If cloudiness increases at high surface temperatures, as seems likely, and if the dominant effect of clouds is to cool the planet by reflecting incident solar radiation, the actual solar flux required to create moist or runaway conditions would be higher than the values quoted above. Early in solar system history, solar luminosity was about 25 percent to 30 percent less than today, putting the flux at Venus' orbit in the range of 1.34 S(o) to 1.43 S(o). Thus, it is possible that Venus had liquid water on its surface for several hundred million years following its formation. Paradoxically, this might have facilitated water loss by sequestering atmospheric CO2 in carbonate rocks and by providing an effective medium for surface oxidation.

Kasting, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Topographic Response to the Yakutat Block Collision

The principal objective of this grant and this research were to investigate the topographic development of an active glaciated orogenic belt in southern Alaska as that development relates to patterns of erosion and crustal deformation. A specific objective of the research was to investigate feedbacks between mountain building, orographic affects on climate, and patterns of exhumation and rock uplift. To that end, an orogen-scale analysis of topography was conducted with the aid of digital elevation models, magnitudes and patterns of crustal deformation were compiled from existing literature, present and past climate patterns were constrained using the modern and past distribution of glaciers, and styles, magnitudes, and extent of erosion were constrained with observations from the 1998 field season.

Stock, Joann M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Wetland Emission and Atmospheric Sink Changes Explain Methane Growth in 2020

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns(1). Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr−1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns(2). From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings(3,4,) our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge(5).

Shushi Peng↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Possible climate histories of Venus type worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2dominated atmosphere[1]. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photo-dissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape and the left over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus [2] would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history. As long as Venus remained in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime [3,4] its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases [5].But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain whether both scenarios are equally probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exo-Venus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ [6] and hence encourage the exoplanet community to seek out these worlds as possible habitable environments.

Venus’ climate evolution↗
NASA NTRS1991

The impact of greenhouse climate change on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies

Atmospheric transient eddies contribute significantly to mid-latitude energy and water vapor transports. Changes in the global climate, as induced by greenhouse enhancement, will likely alter transient eddy behavior. Unraveling all the feedbacks that occur in general circulation models (GCMs) can be difficult. The transient eddies are isolated from the feedbacks and are focused on the response of the eddies to zonal-mean climate changes that result from CO2-doubling. Using a primitive-equation spectral model, the impact of climate change on the life cycles of transient eddies is examined. Transient eddy behavior in experiments is compared with initial conditions that are given by the zonal-mean climates of the GCMs with current and doubled amounts of CO2. The smaller meridional temperature gradient in a doubled CO2 climate leads to a reduction in eddy kinetic energy, especially in the subtropics. The decrease in subtropical eddy energy is related to a substantial reduction in equatorward flux of eddy activity during the latter part of the life cycle. The reduction in equatorward energy flux alters the moisture cycle. Eddy meridional transport of water vapor is shifted slightly poleward and subtropical precipitation is reduced. The water vapor transport exhibits a relatively small change in magnitude, compared to changes in eddy energy, due to the compensating effect of higher specific humidity in the doubled-CO2 climate. An increase in high-latitude precipitation is related to the poleward shift in eddy water vapor flux. Surface evaporation amplifies climatic changes in water vapor transport and precipitation in the experiments.

Branscome, Lee E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Cloud-radiation interactions - Effects of cirrus optical thickness feedbacks

The paper is concerned with a cloud-radiation feedback mechanism which may be an important component of the climate changes expected from increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace greenhouse gases. A major result of the study is that cirrus cloud optical thickness feedbacks may indeed tend to increase the surface warming due to trace gas increases. However, the positive feedback from cirrus appears to be generally weaker than the negative effects due to lower clouds. The results just confirm those of earlier research indicating that the net effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks may be a negative feedback which may substantially (by a factor of about 2) reduce the surface warming due to the doubling of CO2, even in the presence of cirrus clouds.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Strong Dependence of Atmospheric Feedbacks on Mixed-Phase Microphysics and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in HadGEM3

We analyze the atmospheric processes that explain the large changes in radiative feed-backs between the two latest climate configurations of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental model. We use a large set of atmosphere-only climate-change simulations (amip and amip-p4K) to separate the contributions to the differences in feedback parameter from all the atmospheric model developments between the two latest model configurations. We show that the differences are mostly driven by changes in the shortwave cloud radiative feedback in the midlatitudes, mainly over the Southern Ocean. Two new schemes explain most of the differences: the introduction of a new aerosol scheme; and the development of a new mixed-phase cloud scheme. Both schemes reduce the strength of the pre-existing shortwave negative cloud feedback in the midlatitudes. The new aerosol scheme dampens a strong aerosol-cloud interaction, and it also suppresses a negative clear-sky shortwave feedback. The mixed-phase scheme increases the amount of cloud liquid water path (LWP) in the present-day, thereby reducing the radiative effciency of the increase of LWP in the warmer climate. It also enhances a strong, pre-existing, positive cloud fraction feedback. We assess the realism of the changes by comparing present-day simulations against observations, and discuss avenues that could help constrain the relevant processes.

HadGEM3↗
NASA NTRS2020

Water Ice Cloud Feedbacks over the North Polar Residual Cap at Moderate Obliquity

Several global climate modeling studies have now shown that water ice clouds can warm the surface 10s of K at moderate obliquities [1,2,3]. Significant greenhouse warming occurs because the predicted clouds are optically thick, the cloud particles are large enough to efficiently interact with infrared radiation, and the clouds either form at or are transported to high altitudes where the atmosphere is cold. Radiativedynamic feedbacks play a critical role in producing the conditions needed for a strong cloud greenhouse. Two feedbacks have been identified: one involves atmospheric warming by clouds aloft at lower latitudes. These clouds are generally associated with the global Hadley circulation. The second feedback involves clouds that form over the North Polar Residual Cap (NPRC) during summer. These clouds are more closely associated with the regional polar circulation. We focus here on the second of these feedbacks with the goal of understanding the details of the interactions between sublimation, cloud formation and transport in the north polar region. We show that these feedbacks strongly control the wetness of the atmosphere and the strength of the cloud greenhouse at moderate obliquity.

Kahre, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Cloud Feedback in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: An Update

Six years ago, we compared the climate sensitivity of 19 atmospheric general circulation models and found a roughly threefold variation among the models; most of this variation was attributed to differences in the models' depictions of cloud feedback. In an update of this comparison, current models showed considerably smaller differences in net cloud feedback, with most producing modest values. There are, however, substantial differences in the feedback components, indicating that the models still have physical disagreements.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Observed and Simulated Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Tropical Convective Storms

Increases in the ice content, albedo and cloud cover of tropical convective storms in a warmer climate produce a large negative contribution to cloud feedback in the GISS GCM. Unfortunately, the physics of convective upward water transport, detrainment, and ice sedimentation, and the relationship of microphysical to radiative properties, are all quite uncertain. We apply a clustering algorithm to TRMM satellite microwave rainfall retrievals to identify contiguous deep precipitating storms throughout the tropics. Each storm is characterized according to its size, albedo, OLR, rain rate, microphysical structure, and presence/absence of lightning. A similar analysis is applied to ISCCP data during the TOGA/COARE experiment to identify optically thick deep cloud systems and relate them to large-scale environmental conditions just before storm onset. We examine the statistics of these storms to understand the relative climatic roles of small and large storms and the factors that regulate convective storm size and albedo. The results are compared to GISS GCM simulated statistics of tropical convective storms to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Use of earth-radiation budget measurements for understanding climate change

Setting the baseline for the greenhouse effect, quantification of the water-vapor feedback, validation of longwave radiation models, determination of the trend in the clear sky albedo of the ocean, and determination of the role of clouds in climate are considered. A summary of cloud radiative forcing estimates is presented, and it is noted that the longwave cloud forcing is essentially the greenhouse effect of the clouds, and that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has to be increased by a factor of 250 to equal the cloud greenhouse effect. It is pointed out that the short-wave cloud forcing is due to the enhancement of the albedo of the planet by clouds. The decrease in the solar absorption of 48.4 W/sq m by clouds is found to be larger than its greenhouse effect by about 50 pct.

Ramanathan, V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Climatic History of the Northeastern United States During the Past 3000 Years

Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks - vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes - are strongly influenced by multidecadal- to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000BCE - 1700CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

Marlon, Jennifer R.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Non-Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt Co2 Forcing Due to a North Atlantic Pattern Effect

Effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), commonly estimated from model simulations with abrupt 4×CO 2 for 150 years, has been shown to depend on the CO 2 forcing level. To understand this dependency systematically, we performed a series of simulations with a range of abrupt CO 2 forcing in two climate models. Our results indicate that normalized EffCS values in these simulations are a non-monotonic function of the CO 2 forcing, decreasing between 3× and 4×CO 2 in CESM1-LE (2× and 3×CO 2 in GISS-E2.1-G) and increasing at higher CO 2 levels. The minimum EffCS value, caused by anomalously negative radiative feedbacks, arises mainly from sea-surface temperature (SST) relative cooling in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This cooling is associated with the formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse under CO 2 forcing. Our findings imply that understanding changes in North Atlantic SST patterns is important for constraining near-future and equilibrium global warming.

effective climate sensitivity↗