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DOE OSTI2026

Satellite-based Investigation of Power-Line Vegetation Encroachment in the US (SILVANUS)

Rapid wide-area assessments of vegetation encroachment on transmission and distribution line rights-of-way (ROW) is a highly desirable capability for understanding risks to the power grid during severe weather and wildfire events. Conventional assessments are time-consuming and expensive due to the need for in-situ inspections and the use of aerial assets. Performing conventional assessments on a wide area would require immense resources and time that might not be available within the horizon of an expected adverse event. Developing a capability to accurately assess vegetation encroachment into ROWs will enable faster analysis of potential grid vulnerabilities in NAERM. This project sought to develop a prototype capability for rapid ROW vegetation encroachment assessments by using Puerto Rico as a test case. Puerto Rico is a heavily forested island territory frequently impacted by tropical cyclones that threaten the electric grid by downing trees across transmission and distribution lines. Multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) enable very high resolution (i.e., 0.5 - 2 meter) assessment of vegetation conditions at scale and with revisit times appropriate for regular monitoring (e.g., weekly to quarterly, depending on cloud cover) of the entire island. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from satellites was also investigated as solution to the cloud-cover issue as they are active sensors that emit and receive a microwave signal rather than relying on solar illumination, and are therefore unaffected by cloud cover and can collect data during day or night. Finally, MSI-derived digital surface models (DSMs) map the height of objects relative to sea level, and were assessed for their ability to estimate the height of forest canopies relative to coincident transmission lines. The results of the mapping investigation are described in this report.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamics modeling of molten salt reactor with reduced and expanded representations of delayed neutron precursors

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) present unique challenges in dynamic behavior due to the mobility of their fuel. In these reactors, delayed neutron precursors (DNPs) drift with the fuel circulation through the primary loop. As a result, a fraction of DNPs decays outside the core, effectively reducing the available delayed neutron population for reactivity control. Consequently, precise modeling of the distribution and behavior of DNPs is critical for accurate reactor dynamics simulations. In this study, the System Dynamics Analysis Tool (SDAT) was used to simulate a thermal-spectrum MSR under steady-state conditions and following transients. The effects of using reduced and expanded representations of DNPs with fewer or more groups than the conventional 6-group model were investigated. Their impact on the simulated distribution of precursors in the primary loop, reactivity loss value, and reactor response to transients was analyzed. Simulation results showed that reduced models lead to the loss of the actual DNPs distribution data, resulting in less accurate estimates of reactivity loss. Reactor power predictions using these reduced models showed significant deviations compared to those using the conventional 6-group model in transient simulations. Expanded models offered a more accurate representation of the distribution of DNPs and reactivity loss estimates. Reactor power predictions using expanded models showed minimal deviation from the conventional 6-group model during the simulated transients.

analysis↗

DOE OSTI2026

ML-Based Pebble Power Reconstruction for Pebble Bed Reactor Analysis

Pebble power reconstruction has been explored to complement the conventional homogenized modeling approach in pebble bed reactor (PBR) analysis, as detailed heterogeneous geometry calculations are computationally expensive. The random distribution of pebble fuels within the core challenges the application of conventional pin power reconstruction methods. To address this, we introduce a machine learning approach based on the transformer model, composed of encoder and decoder layers, to estimate the flux and power form functions for reconstructing individual pebble neutron fluxes and powers. The homogeneous neutron flux distribution within each spectral zone (SZ) is obtained from finite element solutions of global diffusion or transport calculations. Verification tests demonstrate that the trained transformer model accurately predicts power form functions over a range of conditions, including variations in pebble enrichment, location, type, SZ size, and burnup. In particular, verification using a three-dimensional PBR benchmark with burned pebbles shows good agreement in heterogeneous pebble power distributions between Griffin and Serpent. These results highlight the potential of applying conventional pin power reconstruction approaches to PBR cores with randomly distributed pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autoregressive distributed lag-based dynamic uniformity modeling and monitoring approaches for superconductor manufacturing

High-temperature superconductors (HTS), known for their high efficiency and low energy loss, have found profound applications across various fields, driving the demand for long, uniformly performing tapes. However, ensuring uniform performance over extended lengths of HTS tapes, often characterized by the consistency of critical current, remains challenging due to fluctuations in growth conditions during manufacturing. Here, to elucidate the mechanisms underlying variations in tape uniformity and enable real-time monitoring of associated parameters, we propose an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL)-based Dynamic Uniformity Modeling and Monitoring (ADUM2) approach. This method integrates uniformity measurement, the identification of critical process parameters and real-time monitoring within the manufacturing process. The ADUM2 approach is applied to the advanced metal organic chemical vapor deposition (A-MOCVD) process, a pilot-scale method for superconductor manufacturing. Our model demonstrates superior performance compared to benchmark methods, accounting for over 80% of the total variance in the data and identifying 13 key process parameters influencing the uniformity of HTS tapes. This study offers significant insights into the high-temperature superconductor manufacturing process and holds the potential to facilitate the production of cost-effective, uniformly performing long superconducting tapes in the future.

autoregressive distributed lag analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Asymptotic-state prediction for fast flavor transformation in neutron star mergers

Neutrino flavor instabilities appear to be omnipresent in dense astrophysical environments, thus presenting a challenge to large-scale simulations of core-collapse supernovae and neutron star mergers (NSMs). Subgrid models offer a path forward, but require an accurate determination of the local outcome of such conversion phenomena. Focusing on “fast” instabilities, related to the existence of a crossing between neutrino and antineutrino angular distributions, we consider a range of analytical mixing schemes, including a new, fully three-dimensional one, and also introduce a new machine learning (ML) model. We compare the accuracy of these models with the results of several thousands of local dynamical calculations of neutrino evolution from the conditions extracted from classical NSM simulations. Our ML model shows good overall performance, but struggles to generalize to conditions from a NSM simulation not used for training. The multidimensional analytic model performs and generalizes even better, while other analytic models (which assume axisymmetric neutrino distributions) do not have reliably high performances, as they notably fail as expected to account for effects resulting from strong anisotropies. As a result, the ML and analytic subgrid models extensively tested here are both promising, with different computational requirements and sources of systematic errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Distinguishing Single and Linked Ruptures in the Laboratory and Nature

Earthquakes can grow either monotonically from a single, stressed patch or through linking multiple stressed regions. The distinction has implications for magnitude predictability with single ruptures requiring knowledge of the local stress state, while linked ruptures require knowing the global stress and energy distribution. Here, we use a laboratory fault that allows direct observation of slip to determine which fault conditions promote linked ruptures, and how to observationally evaluate their likelihood. Higher concentrations of normal stress due to increased normal force, applied stress asperities, or larger heterogeneity between the samples, all lead to significant increases in linked rupture likelihood. The mean radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF) of large events is an excellent proxy for linked event likelihood, and a combination of REEF and duration can identify the rupture style of some but not all events. The results imply that globally observed variations of REEF can be interpreted as variations in stress concentration.

earthquakes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of Intersections in Fracture Connectivity

Networks of intersecting fractures often provide the flow paths through subsurface reservoirs. Assessing network connectivity is challenging because fracture intersections compose a vanishingly small fraction of the network void volume. In this paper, motivated by 3D X-ray imaging of the simplest element of fracture network, that is, two orthogonal fractures, we perform a percolation and finite-size scaling analysis to study the connectivity provided by fracture intersections. The conditions when an intersection enhances connectivity across a sample depend on spatial correlations in the fracture aperture distributions, on the stress state, and on the direction of flow. Here we consider three flow directions: (a) across intersections, (b) parallel to intersections and (c) around corners. For (a), intersections provide minimal enhancement of connectivity because they contribute little additional void area. For (b), intersections increase the probability of a connected path near threshold by enabling 3D connected pathways that are not possible in parallel fractures. Flow around corners, (c), is fundamentally the result of the intersection connecting two fractures in series and spatial correlations are broken around corners, suppressing the connectivity relative to (a). When the connected fractures are stressed equally, a joint percolation threshold emerges that continues to have scale invariance. However, when the fractures are stressed unequally, the system has mixed percolation without clearly defined percolation thresholds. In all cases, percolation probabilities are found to be scale dependent which has important consequences for the connectivity of larger fracture networks composed of the fundamental element studied here.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Crack formation in strained β-(AlxGa 1−x ) 2 O 3 films grown on (010) β-Ga 2 O 3 substrates

The cracking and local strain relaxation in (010) (Al x Ga 1−x ) 2 O 3 films grown on Ga 2 O 3 substrates are assessed in terms of film composition and thickness. We utilize x-ray diffraction and electron microscopy techniques combined with simulation and modeling to investigate that film cracking on curvature (flatness) has a directly proportional relationship with film thickness and/or aluminum content. Cross section transmission electron microscopy reveals that cracks along both the (001) and (100) cleavage planes penetrate into the substrate. The diffuse scattered intensity observed in reciprocal space maps (RSMs) is directly correlated with the tilt that is introduced due to the change in the deformation conditions near the cracks. While asymmetric RSMs show that the layers are fully strained, the diffuse scattering distribution in reciprocal space can be interpreted to show that the cracking relaxes and locally tilts the lattice ∼350 nm from the crack edges, which is consistent with the larger radius of curvature associated with the films with higher crack densities. For example, a 200 nm (Al 0.13 Ga 0.87 ) 2 O 3 thick film has an average inter-crack spacing of 3.3 µm, so most of the epitaxial layer is fully strained except near the cracks where it deforms elastically and is consistent with the gallium oxide Poisson ratio. A reciprocal space model was developed, which imports the strain and tilt distributions (based on finite element modeling) to match the features observed in the experimental maps. We also note that previous studies involving (Al x Ga 1−x ) 2 O 3 films may show evidence of cracking as observed in their symmetric and asymmetric RSMs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cryogenic white light absorption spectroscopy setup with in situ gamma irradiation and thermo-optical annealing for optical fiber radiation-induced attenuation characterization

Silica optical fiber sensors offer a fast, distributed measurement solution in various cryogenic and radiation environments, such as magnets for fusion power. Under these conditions, light-absorbing point defects limit lifetime via radiation-induced attenuation (RIA). To support RIA kinetics prediction, we present an in situ, broadband absorption spectroscopy setup combining gamma irradiation with liquid nitrogen cooling. The apparatus enables continuous monitoring of narrowband RIA levels and the use of secondary optical annealing light sources, alongside broadband spectrum measurements to characterize RIA defects through spectrum decomposition. Initial results confirm the inevitable photobleaching effect of the probe light source, which must be accounted for. In addition, we report RIA kinetics during cycles of gamma irradiation at 77 K and isochronal thermal annealing steps from liquid nitrogen to room temperature, showcasing the setup’s ability to replicate real fiber operation scenarios. These instruments form an ideal platform to further study the kinetics of RIA coupled with thermal and optical annealing.

Absorption spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Simons Observatory: science goals and forecasts for the enhanced Large Aperture Telescope

We describe updated scientific goals for the wide-field, millimeter-wave survey that will be produced by the Simons Observatory (SO). Significant upgrades to the 6-meter SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) are expected to be complete by 2028, and will include a doubled mapping speed with 30,000 new detectors and an automated data reduction pipeline. In addition, a new photovoltaic array will supply most of the observatory's power. The LAT survey will cover about 60% of the sky at a regular observing cadence, with five times the angular resolution and ten times the map depth of the Planck satellite. The science goals are to: (1) determine the physical conditions in the early universe and constrain the existence of new light particles; (2) measure the integrated distribution of mass, electron pressure, and electron momentum in the late-time universe, and, in combination with optical surveys, determine the neutrino mass and the effects of dark energy via tomographic measurements of the growth of structure at redshifts z ≲ 3; (3) measure the distribution of electron density and pressure around galaxy groups and clusters, and calibrate the effects of energy input from galaxy formation on the surrounding environment; (4) produce a sample of more than 30,000 galaxy clusters, and more than 100,000 extragalactic millimeter sources, including regularly sampled AGN light-curves, to study these sources and their emission physics; (5) measure the polarized emission from magnetically aligned dust grains in our Galaxy, to study the properties of dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation; (6) constrain asteroid regoliths, search for Trans-Neptunian Objects, and either detect or eliminate large portions of the phase space in the search for Planet 9; and (7) provide a powerful new window into the transient universe on time scales of minutes to years, concurrent with observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory of overlapping sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)

Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of a Co-Optimized, Smart Hybrid Heat Pump Control

This study examines a residential dual fuel (DF) heating system that integrates heat pump and gas furnace technology with a home’s forced-air distribution ducts. Specifically, it explores a retrofit where an “add-on” heat pump replaces the air conditioning (A/C) system and is combined with the home’s existing furnace and air handler. The research team developed and validated an innovative control scheme for this integrated DF system that selected the more economical heating source (furnace or heat pump) while maintaining comfort in the home. The project’s field study and subsequent modeling analysis show that this control scheme can decrease energy use, cost, and emissions compared to a furnace-only system. As homes in mixed and cold climates transition to more electric space heating, furnace-to-dual fuel system retrofits offer a solution that can alleviate the retrofit costs, energy cost concerns, and peak load impacts of full electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Information-entropy-driven generation of material-agnostic datasets for machine-learning interatomic potentials

In contrast to their empirical counterparts, machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIAPs) promise to deliver near-quantum accuracy over broad regions of configuration space. However, due to their generic functional forms and extreme flexibility, they can catastrophically fail to capture the properties of novel, out-of-sample configurations, making the quality of the training set a determining factor, especially when investigating materials under extreme conditions. We propose a novel automated dataset generation method based on the maximization of the information entropy of the feature distribution, aiming at an extremely broad coverage of the configuration space in a way that is agnostic to the properties of specific target materials. The ability of the dataset to capture unique material properties is demonstrated on a range of unary materials, including elements with the FCC (Al), BCC (W), HCP (Be, Re and Os), graphite (C), and trigonal (Sb, Te) ground states. MLIAPs trained to this dataset are shown to be accurate over a range of application-relevant metrics, as well as extremely robust over very broad swaths of configurations space, even without dataset fine-tuning or hyper-parameter optimization, making the approach extremely attractive to rapidly and autonomously develop general-purpose MLIAPs suitable for simulations in extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Report on Initial Sodium Testing on the Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article (THETA) (Fiscal Year 2024 Final Report)

The Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article (THETA) is a facility that is used to develop sodium components and instrumentation as well as to acquire experimental data for validation of reactor thermal hydraulic and safety analysis codes. The facility simulates nominal thermal hydraulic conditions as well as protected/unprotected loss of flow accidents in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). High fidelity distributed temperature profiles of the developed flow field may be acquired with Rayleigh backscatter based optical fiber temperature sensors. The facility was designed in partnership with systems code experts to tailor the experiment to ensure the most relevant and highest quality data for code validation. THETA is comprised of a traditional primary coolant and secondary coolant system. The primary system is submerged in the pool of sodium and consists of a pump, electrically heated core, intermediate heat exchanger, and connected piping and thermal barriers (redan). The secondary system, located outside of the sodium pool, consists of a pump, sodium to air heat exchanger, and connected piping and valves. In fiscal year 2023, thermal stratification tests were completed with the primary system online, while the secondary system was being constructed [1]. These tests had shown that the core barrel and intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) outlet required increased thermal insulation. The THETA primary system was removed from METL, cleaned, thermal insulators installed, and then inserted into METL Test Vessel 4. At the time of this writing the THETA primary and secondary system are operational. During this fiscal year 100+ hours of testing was completed to characterize thermal hydraulic phenomena associated with steady state and transient conditions in a pool type liquid metal cooled reactor. A majority of the testing campaign was completed to satisfy the experimental data acquisition requirements for the GAIN Voucher with Oklo, CRADA 2021-21121. THETA is still operational at the time of this publication and future testing is planned for fiscal year 2025. Work is underway to publish existing and future data to an online database to facilitate collaboration with SFR engineers looking to validate their systems code or computational fluid dynamics models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Dark matter direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS cold dark matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way–mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local dark matter speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the dark matter speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the standard halo model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way–mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗