Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Cost Trends”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Estimates of daily rainfall over the Amazon basin

Five geostationary satellite rain estimation techniques were tested over Amazonia. Individually, the techniques explained 1/4 to 1/3 of the variance of daily gage rainfall. Based in large part on cost, one technique, which involves a nonlinear relation in temperature, was selected to provide a mapping of daily Amazonia rainfall between May 6 and 12, 1987. Accumulated over the 7 days, rainfall by this technique averaged 40 mm. It varied from zero in the southeast to more than 150 mm in the northwest. To the southwest the predominantly convective pattern of the rain image was overlaid by a streakines, implying some baroclinic influence. In maps combining gage observations with satellite estimates, rainfall varied significantly from day to day. Only over the largest scale did a trend emerge: a tendency for rain to withdraw from south to north.

Martin, David W.↗

Advanced Chemical Propulsion System Study

A detailed; mission-level systems study has been performed to show the benefit resulting from engine performance gains that will result from NASA's In-Space Propulsion ROSS Cycle 3A NRA, Advanced Chemical Technology sub-topic. The technology development roadmap to accomplish the NRA goals are also detailed in this paper. NASA-Marshall and NASA-JPL have conducted mission-level studies to define engine requirements, operating conditions, and interfaces. Five reference missions have been chosen for this analysis based on scientific interest, current launch vehicle capability and trends in space craft size: a) GTO to GEO, 4800 kg, delta-V for GEO insertion only approx.1830 m/s; b) Titan Orbiter with aerocapture, 6620 kg, total delta V approx.210 m/s, mostly for periapsis raise after aerocapture; c) Enceladus Orbiter (Titan aerocapture) 6620 kg, delta V approx.2400 m/s; d) Europa Orbiter, 2170 kg, total delta V approx.2600 m/s; and e) Mars Orbiter, 2250 kg, total delta V approx.1860 m/s. The figures of merit used to define the benefit of increased propulsion efficiency at the spacecraft level include propulsion subsystem wet mass, volume and overall cost. The objective of the NRA is to increase the specific impulse of pressure-fed earth storable bipropellant rocket engines to greater than 330 seconds with nitrogen tetroxide and monomothylhydrazine propellants and greater than 335 , seconds with nitrogen tetroxide and hydrazine. Achievement of the NRA goals will significantly benefit NASA interplanetary missions and other government and commercial opportunities by enabling reduced launch weight and/or increased payload. The study also constitutes a crucial stepping stone to future development, such as pump-fed storable engines.

Portz, Ron↗

Satellite-derived Cyanobacteria Frequency and Magnitude in Headwaters & Near-dam Reservoir Surface Waters of the Southern U.S.

Reservoirs are dominant features of the modern hydrologic landscape and provide vital services. However, the unique morphology of reservoirs can create suitable conditions for excessive algae growth and associated cyanobacteria blooms in shallow in-flow reservoir locations by providing warm water environments with relatively high nutrient inputs, deposition, and nutrient storage. Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) are costly water management issues and bloom recurrence is associated with economic costs and negative impacts to human, animal, and environmental health. As cyanoHAB occurrence varies substantially within different regions of a water body, understanding in-lake cyanoHAB spatial dynamics is essential to guide reservoir monitoring and mitigate potential public exposure to cyanotoxins. Cloud-based computational processing power and high temporal frequency of satellites enables advanced pixel-based spatial analysis of cyanoHAB frequency and quantitative assessment of reservoir headwater in-flows compared to near-dam surface waters of individual reservoirs. Additionally, extensive spatial coverage of satellite imagery allows for evaluation of spatial trends across many dozens of reservoir sites. Surface water cyanobacteria concentrations for sixty reservoirs in the southern U.S. were estimated using 300 m resolution European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) satellite sensor for a five year period (May 2016–April 2021). Of the reservoirs studied, spatial analysis of OLCI data revealed 98% had more frequent cyanoHAB occurrence above the concentration of >100,000 cells/mL in headwaters compared to near-dam surface waters (P < 0.001). Headwaters exhibited greater seasonal variability with more frequent and higher magnitude cyanoHABs occurring mid-summer to fall. Examination of reservoirs identified extremely high concentration cyanobacteria events (>1,000,000 cells/mL) occurring in 70% of headwater locations while only 30% of near-dam locations exceeded this threshold. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests of cyanoHAB magnitudes using paired-observations (dates with observations in both a reservoir's headwater and near-dam locations) confirmed significantly higher concentrations in headwater versus near-dam locations (p < 0.001).

Amber R Ignatius↗

Satellite-derived cyanobacteria frequency and magnitude in headwaters & near-dam reservoir surface waters of the Southern U.S.

Reservoirs are dominant features of the modern hydrologic landscape and provide vital services. However, the unique morphology of reservoirs can create suitable conditions for excessive algae growth and associated cyanobacteria blooms in shallow in-flow reservoir locations by providing warm water environments with relatively high nutrient inputs, deposition, and nutrient storage. Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) are costly water management issues and bloom recurrence is associated with economic costs and negative impacts to human, animal, and environmental health. As cyanoHAB occurrence varies substantially within different regions of a water body, understanding in-lake cyanoHAB spatial dynamics is essential to guide reservoir monitoring and mitigate potential public exposure to cyanotoxins. Cloud-based computational processing power and high temporal frequency of satellites enables advanced pixel-based spatial analysis of cyanoHAB frequency and quantitative assessment of reservoir headwater in-flows compared to near-dam surface waters of individual reservoirs. Additionally, extensive spatial coverage of satellite imagery allows for evaluation of spatial trends across many dozens of reservoir sites. Surface water cyanobacteria concentrations for sixty reservoirs in the southern U.S. were estimated using 300m resolution European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) satellite sensor for a five year period (May 2016–April 2021). Of the reservoirs studied, spatial analysis of OLCI data revealed 98% had more frequent cyanoHAB occurrence above the concentration of >100,000 cells/mL in headwaters compared to near-dam surface waters (P < 0.001). Headwaters exhibited greater seasonal variability with more frequent and higher magnitude cyanoHABs occurring mid-summer to fall. Examination of reservoirs identified extremely high concentration cyanobacteria events (>1,000,000 cells/mL) occurring in 70% of headwater locations while only 30% of near-dam locations exceeded this threshold. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests of cyanoHAB magnitudes using paired-observations (dates with observations in both a reservoir's headwater and near-dam locations) confirmed significantly higher concentrations in headwater versus near-dam locations (p < 0.001).

cyanobacteria↗

Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

French, V.↗

A prediction model to forecast the cost impact from a break in the production schedule

The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.

Delionback, L. M.↗

Additional Comparison of Iced Aerodynamic Measurements on a Swept Wing From Two Wind Tunnels

Artificial ice shapes of various geometric fidelity were tested on a wing model based on the Common Research Model. Low Reynolds number test were conducted at Wichita State University's Walter H. Beech Memorial Wind utilizing an 8.9% scale model, and high Reynolds number tests were conducted at ONERA's F1 wind tunnel utilizing a 13.3% scale model. Several identical geometrically-scaled ice shapes were tested at both facilities, and the results were compared at overlapping Reynolds and Mach numbers. This was to ensure that the results and trends observed at low Reynolds number could be applied and continued to high, near-flight Reynolds number. The data from Wichita State University and ONERA F1 agreed well at matched Reynolds and Mach numbers. The lift and pitching moment curves agreed very well for most configurations. This confirmed results from previous tests with other ice shapes that indicated the data from the low Reynolds number tests could be used to understand ice-swept-wing aerodynamics at high Reynolds number. This allows ice aerodynamics testing to be performed at low Reynolds number facilities with much lower operating costs and generate results that are applicable to flight Reynolds number.

Scale models↗

Flight-Test Evaluation of Flutter-Prediction Methods

The flight-test community routinely spends considerable time and money to determine a range of flight conditions, called a flight envelope, within which an aircraft is safe to fly. The cost of determining a flight envelope could be greatly reduced if there were a method of safely and accurately predicting the speed associated with the onset of an instability called flutter. Several methods have been developed with the goal of predicting flutter speeds to improve the efficiency of flight testing. These methods include (1) data-based methods, in which one relies entirely on information obtained from the flight tests and (2) model-based approaches, in which one relies on a combination of flight data and theoretical models. The data-driven methods include one based on extrapolation of damping trends, one that involves an envelope function, one that involves the Zimmerman-Weissenburger flutter margin, and one that involves a discrete-time auto-regressive model. An example of a model-based approach is that of the flutterometer. These methods have all been shown to be theoretically valid and have been demonstrated on simple test cases; however, until now, they have not been thoroughly evaluated in flight tests. An experimental apparatus called the Aerostructures Test Wing (ATW) was developed to test these prediction methods.

Lind, RIck↗

Trends and Issues in Fuzzy Control and Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling

Everyday experience in building and repairing things around the home have taught us the importance of using the right tool for the right job. Although we tend to think of a 'job' in broad terms, such as 'build a bookcase,' we understand well that the 'right job' associated with each 'right tool' is typically a narrowly bounded subtask, such as 'tighten the screws.' Unfortunately, we often lose sight of this principle when solving engineering problems; we treat a broadly defined problem, such as controlling or modeling a system, as a narrow one that has a single 'right tool' (e.g., linear analysis, fuzzy logic, neural network). We need to recognize that a typical real-world problem contains a number of different sub-problems, and that a truly optimal solution (the best combination of cost, performance and feature) is obtained by applying the right tool to the right sub-problem. Here I share some of my perspectives on what constitutes the 'right job' for fuzzy control and describe recent advances in neuro-fuzzy modeling to illustrate and to motivate the synergistic use of different tools.

Chiu, Stephen↗

Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

Ghaffarian, Reza↗

Global navigation satellite system reflectometry (GNSS-R) algorithms for wetland observations

It is important to closely monitor the state of the world’s wetlands, as climate change and human encroachment in a rapid global urbanization trend threaten to cause large-scale wetland collapse. Because wetlands are often difficult to observe in situ, remote sensing is the only viable way to map wetland extent globally. However, current remote sensing methods suffer limitations in capturing wetland extent, and more importantly, wetland dynamics at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. GNSSReflectometry could help fill the current observation gap, as experimental data show that ground-reflected GNSS signals are very sensitive to changes in inundated areas. Furthermore, because this technique only requires a custom developed receiver and antenna system, a constellation of such instruments can potentially be launched at relatively low cost, providing global observations at sub-daily intervals. One challenge remains, however, which is quantitatively formulating the geophysical product of reflections over the land surface in various states of inundation. Here, we use a novel reflection dataset, derived from the SMAP radar receiver, to elucidate the sensitivity of reflections to small land surface features and their seasonal variations. Additionally, we quantify the dynamic range of reflections over both open and closed wetlands, and suggest an algorithm for wetland type classification.

UNKNOWN↗

High-Fidelity Modeling Approach for Coupling Thermal, Fluid, and Neutronic Analysis in an NTP Engine

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP), with its increased efficiency compared to traditional rocket engines, is a potentially enabling technology for space missions of higher complexity, such as delivering heavy machinery or crew to the moon or other planets. Thus, exploring modeling approaches that can effectively couple the thermal, fluid, and neutronic behaviors of NTP reactors is essential to mitigate cost and schedule challenges with hardware development. This paper details one such approach which utilizes Cardinal to unify reactor physics analysis performed using OpenMC, heat transfer analysis performed using the MOOSE framework, and thermal hydraulic analysis performed using the MOOSE Thermal Hydraulic Module. This approach is demonstrated with a proof of concept that focuses on a legacy reactor geometry from the historic NERVA program. This preliminary model found an overprediction in, when compared to the reference data, axial power peaking and the temperatures of both solids and fluids by roughly 20%. It is clear, however, that the model conserved a number of broad trends, and a few model refinements should reduce the observed error. This approach has definite merit and should enable the production of informative results for more modern NTP systems. This work is a first step in creating a transient reactor model that can be updated across a sequence of time steps based on continually fluctuating, time-dependent boundary conditions.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

Space biology initiative program definition review. Trade study 1: Automation costs versus crew utilization

A significant emphasis upon automation within the Space Biology Initiative hardware appears justified in order to conserve crew labor and crew training effort. Two generic forms of automation were identified: automation of data and information handling and decision making, and the automation of material handling, transfer, and processing. The use of automatic data acquisition, expert systems, robots, and machine vision will increase the volume of experiments and quality of results. The automation described may also influence efforts to miniaturize and modularize the large array of SBI hardware identified to date. The cost and benefit model developed appears to be a useful guideline for SBI equipment specifiers and designers. Additional refinements would enhance the validity of the model. Two NASA automation pilot programs, 'The Principal Investigator in a Box' and 'Rack Mounted Robots' were investigated and found to be quite appropriate for adaptation to the SBI program. There are other in-house NASA efforts that provide technology that may be appropriate for the SBI program. Important data is believed to exist in advanced medical labs throughout the U.S., Japan, and Europe. The information and data processing in medical analysis equipment is highly automated and future trends reveal continued progress in this area. However, automation of material handling and processing has progressed in a limited manner because the medical labs are not affected by the power and space constraints that Space Station medical equipment is faced with. Therefore, NASA's major emphasis in automation will require a lead effort in the automation of material handling to achieve optimal crew utilization.

Jackson, L. Neal↗

A Comparison of Transportation Systems for Human Missions to Mars

There are many ways to send humans to Mars. Credible technical reports can be traced to the 1950's. More recently, NASA has funded major studies that depict a broad variety of trajectories, technologies, stay times, and costs. Much of this data is still valid with direct application to today's exploration planning. This paper presents results comparing these studies with particular emphasis on the in-space transportation aspects of the mission. Specifically, comparisons are made on propulsion systems used for getting the crew and mission equipment from Earth orbit to Mars orbit, descending and ascending from the surface, and returning to Earth orbit. Areas of comparison for each of these phases include crew size, mission mass, propellant mass, delta v, specific impulse, transit time, surface stay time, aero-braking, and others. Data is analyzed to demonstrate either strong trends toward particular technologies or diverging solutions.

Bipropellants↗

Assessment of analytic methods for the prediction of aerodynamic characteristics of arbitrary bodies at supersonic speeds

Trends toward the automation of the design process for airplanes and missiles accentuate the need for analytic techniques for the prediction of aerodynamic characteristics. A number of computer codes have been developed or are under development which show promise of significantly improving the estimation of aerodynamic characteristics for arbitrarily-shaped bodies at supersonic speeds. The programs considered range in complexity from a simple linearized solution employing slender body theory to an exact finite difference solution of the Euler equations. The results from five computer codes are compared with experimental data to determine the accuracy, range of applicability, ease of use, and computer time and cost of the programs. The results provide a useful guide for selecting the appropriate method for treating bodies at the various levels of an automated design process.

Landrum, E. J.↗

Unmixing AVHRR Imagery to Assess Clearcuts and Forest Regrowth in Oregon

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer imagery provides frequent and low-cost coverage of the earth, but its coarse spatial resolution (approx. 1.1 km by 1.1 km) does not lend itself to standard techniques of automated categorization of land cover classes because the pixels are generally mixed; that is, the extent of the pixel includes several land use/cover classes. Unmixing procedures were developed to extract land use/cover class signatures from mixed pixels, using Landsat Thematic Mapper data as a source for the training set, and to estimate fractions of class coverage within pixels. Application of these unmixing procedures to mapping forest clearcuts and regrowth in Oregon indicated that unmixing is a promising approach for mapping major trends in land cover with AVHRR bands 1 and 2. Including thermal bands by unmixing AVHRR bands 1-4 did not lead to significant improvements in accuracy, but experiments with unmixing these four bands did indicate that use of weighted least squares techniques might lead to improvements in other applications of unmixing.

Hlavka, Christine A.↗

Evolving impact of Ada on a production software environment

Many aspects of software development with Ada have evolved as our Ada development environment has matured and personnel have become more experienced in the use of Ada. The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) has seen differences in the areas of cost, reliability, reuse, size, and use of Ada features. A first Ada project can be expected to cost about 30 percent more than an equivalent FORTRAN project. However, the SEL has observed significant improvements over time as a development environment progresses to second and third uses of Ada. The reliability of Ada projects is initially similar to what is expected in a mature FORTRAN environment. However, with time, one can expect to gain improvements as experience with the language increases. Reuse is one of the most promising aspects of Ada. The proportion of reusable Ada software on our Ada projects exceeds the proportion of reusable FORTRAN software on our FORTRAN projects. This result was noted fairly early in our Ada projects, and experience shows an increasing trend over time.

Mcgarry, F.↗

Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

Risk Management↗