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DOE OSTI2026

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2020

Timing and extent of crop damage by wild pigs (Sus scrofa Linnaeus) to corn and peanut fields

The global expansion of wild pigs over the last few decades has resulted in an increase in extent and distribution of damages to crops, placing a growing strain on agricultural producers and land managers. Despite the extent of wild pig damage to agriculture, there is little data regarding timing and spatial variability of damage to corn (Zea mays Linnaeus) and we found no data regarding the effect of these factors on peanuts (Arachis hypogaea Linnaeus). Our objective was to determine the timing and extent of wild pig damage to corn and peanut fields, as well as the extent to which local habitat attributes are useful predictors of damage to these crops. During 2017–2018 we performed ground-based surveys throughout the growing season for 29 corn and 41 peanut fields in South Carolina, USA to determine the most important growth stages for wild pig depredation in both crops. Damage to corn peaked shortly after planting during the seedling stage, fell to nearly zero during V4–V6 stages, and resumed during the silk and mature stages. Peanut damage was almost exclusively limited to the seedling stage. Landscape models for both crops identified the extent of forested and wetland areas surrounding crop fields as the most important attributes positively associated with wild pig damage, while the amount of adjacent agricultural area and paved roads were associated negatively. The number of wild pigs identified by remote cameras also was an important indicator of the extent of damage to peanut fields. Results suggest management efforts to limit crop depredation by wild pigs should be targeted shortly prior to planting. Further, because damage was positively associated with the availability of wetland and forest habitats, our results suggest agricultural damage by wild pigs may be most severe near areas of preferred native habitats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Exploring the use of structural models to improve remote sensing agricultural estimates

Satellite estimates of agricultural characteristics often are not sufficiently precise for reliable use in small geographical regions. The precision of estimates of agricultural characteristics such as crop proportions and leaf area indexes can be increased by modeling ground observations as a function of satellite estimates. Linear regression models using least squares estimators of the model parameters are most often advocated as an appropriate methodology; however, least squares estimation requires that the predictor variables are measured without error, an unreasonable assumption for this application. An alternative estimation methodology which assumes that both the response variables (ground observations) and the predictor variables (satellite estimates) are measured with error involves the use of linear structural models. The application of linear structural models to the estimation of agricultural characteristics using satellite spectral measurements is examined.

Gunst, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Sustainable Use of Groundwater May Dramatically Reduce Irrigated Production of Maize, Soybean, and Wheat

Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. To improve this understanding, we integrated a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. The gridded crop model agrees with satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration (R2 = 0.68), as well as survey data from the United States Department of Agriculture (R2 = 0.82–0.94 for county-level production and 0.37–0.54 for county-level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for the many aspects of sustainability. Our results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. These findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland; however, alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation could produce different results.

sustainability↗

NASA NTRS1992

The limits of crop productivity: validating theoretical estimates and determining the factors that limit crop yields in optimal environments

Plant scientists have sought to maximize the yield of food crops since the beginning of agriculture. There are numerous reports of record food and biomass yields (per unit area) in all major crop plants, but many of the record yield reports are in error because they exceed the maximal theoretical rates of the component processes. In this article, we review the component processes that govern yield limits and describe how each process can be individually measured. This procedure has helped us validate theoretical estimates and determine what factors limit yields in optimal environments.

NASA Program CELSS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Projecting Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Actual Evapotranspiration for the Narmada River Basin in Central India in the Future

Assessment of actual evapotranspiration (ET) is essential as it controls the exchange of water and heat energy between the atmosphere and land surface. ET also influences the available water resources and assists in the crop water assessment in agricultural areas. This study involves the assessment of spatial distribution of seasonal and annual ET using Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and provides an estimation of future changes in ET due to land use and climate change for a portion of the Narmada river basin in Central India. Climate change effects on future ET are assessed using the ACCESS1-0 model of CMIP5. A Markov Chain model estimated future land use based on the probability of changes in the past. The ET analysis is carried out for the years 2009-2011. The results indicate variation in the seasonal ET with the changed land use. High ET is observed over forest areas and crop lands, but ET decreases over crop lands after harvest. The overall annual ET is high over water bodies and forest areas. ET is high in the premonsoon season over the water bodies and decreases in the winter. Future ET in the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s is shown with respect to land use and climate changes that project a gradual decrease due to the constant removal of the forest areas. The lowest ET is projected in 2050. Individual impact of land use change projects decreases in ET from 1990 to 2050, while climate change effect projects increases in ET in the future due to rises in temperature. However, the combined impacts of land use and climate changes indicate a decrease in ET in the future.

Kundu, Sananda↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chemical identity of carbon substrates drives differences in denitrification and N 2 O reduction within agricultural soils

Rates of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) production from agricultural soils are highly variable across space and time. Improving predictions of N 2 O emissions will require improving our understanding of the drivers of denitrification and the sources of variability in the rates of N 2 O production between soils and over time. While the amount of available carbon (C) is a known control on denitrification and N 2 O reduction, relatively little attention has been paid to the effect of the chemical identity of C substrates on rates of denitrification and N 2 O reduction. We investigated the effects of twelve different C-substrate additions on the production and reduction of N 2 O in five soils taken from two distinct agricultural locations in Michigan under multiple land uses. We provided additions of glucose, cellulose, N-acetyl-glucosamine, chitin, amino acids, protein, vanillyl alcohol, lignin, citrate, succinate, methanol, and water in laboratory denitrification potential assays to determine the effects of denitrifier C preference on denitrification rates. We found that amino acids, protein, and organic acids stimulated the greatest rates of denitrification potential across all land uses. Similarly, we found these same substrates caused the most N 2 O reduction, resulting in the lowest net concentrations of N 2 O. Soils from agricultural rotations without cover crops had overall lower rates of denitrifier activity, leading to less net N 2 O production compared to soils from other land uses. In general, C-utilization patterns were similar among all soils, and C-substrate identity had a much stronger effect than land use. Here, we demonstrate that the chemical identity of available C gives rise to wide variability in rates of denitrification and N 2 O reduction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Assessing the effects of landcover and land use change on wildfire exposure and risk to communities and olive orchards in Mediterranean landscapes

A growing concern in the Mediterranean region is that recent landcover and land use change is increasing wildfire risk, or the exposure and impacts of wildfire to valued resources. However, the magnitude of these effects is not well understood given the widely diverse landscapes of communities, natural vegetation, and agricultural land. In this study, we use wildfire simulation modeling to assess how landcover and land use changes in three areas of southern Greece have affected exposure of- and fire risk to- communities and economically important permanent agriculture such as Olea europaea (European olive) orchards. We mapped agricultural and wildland fuel change from 2000 to 2020 and simulated fuel scenarios in agricultural land to assess the impacts of agricultural land practices, such as understory clearing, on fire risk. We show that wildfire exposure and risk to communities and permanent agriculture has increased in some areas due to natural fuel densification and decreased in other areas, mainly due to agricultural land expansion. These results highlight that wildfire exposure and risk are driven by local conditions including density and location of communities, spatial arrangement of natural fuels and agricultural land, and agricultural land use practices. Human settlement burn probability and modeled permanent crop loss increased with greater unmaintained agricultural area in all study areas, emphasizing the importance of agricultural land maintenance practices, such as understory clearing, to reduce fuel continuity and fire intensity. Ultimately, quantitative fire risk analyses such as this study provide a useful framework to identify areas of concern where either fuel mitigation or landowner incentives to maintain agricultural land in a less-burnable condition could be applied.

Aaron M Sparks↗

NASA NTRS2019

Does Seed Sanitization Affect the Plant Rhizosphere Microbiome and Its Ability to Compete with the Human Associated Pathogen, E. coli on Salad Crops?

Cultivation of crops in controlled environmental agricultural systems may limit microbial colonization and reduce diversity of the microbial communities. Practices like seed and growth medium sanitization may further impact microbial communities in the mature plant and the plant’s capacity to limit the growth of pathogens through competition. As humans expand their travels to space, understanding plant growth, health, and development in closed environments will be critical to the success of producing a safe, supplemental food source for astronauts. To determine the persistence of a potential human pathogen in plant growth and development, sanitized and unsanitized seeds from, mizuna (Brassica rapa var japonica) and red romaine lettuce (Lactuca sativa cultivar ‘Outredgeous’), were inoculated with Escherichia coli, ATCC 21445, germinated under simulated International Space Station (ISS) environmental conditions and harvested every 7 days until maturity. The persistence of E. coli in the rhizosphere was determined by plating on selective media, real time PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) and community sequencing of the rhizosphere communities. E. coli was detected in the crops’ roots and leaves for several weeks post germination. At day 28, plants from sanitized seeds had significantly higher counts of E. coli on the roots than those from unsanitized seeds. E. coli was also detected on a few uninoculated plants indicating airborne cross contamination among plants in the same growth chamber and suggesting an influence of the natural microbiome on human pathogen survival and persistence in leafy greens. Sequencing analysis revealed variations in composition and diversity between the communities. Understanding the microbial community of the rhizospheric microbiome is only the first step in determining the relationships between plants. Additional studies to include genotypic and phenotypic variations in the plants should be considered to determine if the natural microbes in the rhizosphere may contribute to the health and therefore, safety of the edible plants.

Khodadad, Christina L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Consistency Between NASS Surveyed Soil Moisture Conditions and SMAP Soil Moisture Observations

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Survey (NASS) collects and publishes crop growth status and soil moisture conditions in major US agricultural regions. The operationally-produced weekly reports are based on survey information. The surveys are based on visual assessments and ? in the case of soil moisture ? report soil moisture levels in one of four categories (Very Short, Short, Adequate and Surplus). In this study, we show that these reports have remarkable correspondence with the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4SM) product. This consistency allows the combining the two distinct types of data to produce a value-added combination, which is mapped fields rather than State-by-State tables and it is refreshed daily rather than weekly. In this study classification thresholds are derived for L4SM by mapping cumulative distribution functions of L4SM surface and root-zone SM to the categorical NASS SM conditions. The results show that, year-over-year, the SMAP cumulative SM distributions are consistent with the NASS SM conditions and, furthermore, that the temporal evolution of the SMAP-derived thresholds is consistent with the seasonal crop growth cycles from year to year. The results signify that the SMAP SM retrievals are relatable to SM estimation conducted in agriculture by land managers and farmers, which underlines the general applicability of the SMAP data.

Andreas Colliander↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive responses of Trichlorobacter lovleyi to nitrite detoxification reveal overlooked contributions of Geobacterales to nitrate ammonification

Abstract Poorly understood microorganisms “short-circuit” the nitrogen cycle via the dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium to retain the element in agricultural lands and stimulate crop productivity. The prevalence of Geobacterales closely related to Trichlorobacter lovleyi in nitrate ammonification hotspots motivated us to investigate adaptive responses contributing to ammonification rates in the laboratory type strain T. lovleyi SZ. Here, we describe the identification of tightly regulated pathways for efficient nitrate foraging and respiration with acetate, an important intermediate of organic matter degradation that Geobacterales efficiently assimilate and oxidize. Challenging the established dogma that high carbon/nitrate ratios stimulate the reduction of nitrate to ammonium, T. lovleyi doubled rapidly across a wide range of ratios provided nitrate concentrations were low enough to prevent the accumulation of the toxic nitrite intermediate. Yet, excess electrons during hydrogenotrophic growth alleviated nitrite toxicity and stimulated the reduction of nitrate to ammonium even under conditions of severe acetate limitation. These findings underscore the importance of nitrite toxicity in the ammonification of nitrate by Geobacterales and provide much needed mechanistic understanding of microbial adaptations contributing to soil nitrogen conservation. This information is critical to enhance the predictive value of genomic-based traits in environmental surveys and to guide strategies for sustainable management of nitrogen fertilization as well as mitigation of green-house emissions and agrochemical leaching from agricultural lands.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bacterial Community Members Increase Bacillus subtilis Maintenance on the Roots of Arabidopsis thaliana

Plant-growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB) are used to improve plant health and promote crop production. However, because some PGPB (including Bacillus subtilis) do not maintain substantial colonization on plant roots over time, it is unclear how effective PGPB are throughout the plant growing cycle. A better understanding of the dynamics of plant root community assembly is needed to develop and harness the potential of PGPB. Although B. subtilis is often a member of the root microbiome, it does not efficiently monoassociate with plant roots. We hypothesized that B. subtilis may require other primary colonizers to efficiently associate with plant roots. We utilized a previously designed hydroponic system to add bacteria to Arabidopsis thaliana roots and monitor their attachment over time. We inoculated seedlings with B. subtilis and individual bacterial isolates from the native A. thaliana root microbiome either alone or together. We then measured how the coinoculum affected the ability of B. subtilis to colonize and maintain on A. thaliana roots. We screened 96 fully genome-sequenced strains and identified five bacterial strains that were able to significantly improve the maintenance of B. subtilis. Three of these rhizobacteria also increased the maintenance of two strains of B. amyloliquefaciens commonly used in commercially available bioadditives. These results not only illustrate the utility of this model system to address questions about plant–microbe interactions and how other bacteria affect the ability of PGPB to maintain their relationships with plant roots but also may help inform future agricultural interventions to increase crop yields.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Isolation of potential plant growth-promoting bacteria from nodules of legumes grown in arid Botswana soil

As the world population increases, improvements in crop growth and yield will be needed to meet rising food demands, especially in countries that have not developed agricultural practices optimized for their own soils and crops. In many African countries, farmers improve agricultural productivity by applying synthetic fertilizers and pesticides to crops, but their continued use over the years has had serious environmental consequences including air and water pollution as well as loss of soil fertility. To reduce the overuse of synthetic amendments, we are developing inocula for crops that are based on indigenous soil microbes, especially those that enhance plant growth and improve agricultural productivity in a sustainable manner. We first isolated environmental DNA from soil samples collected from an agricultural region to study the composition of the soil microbiomes and then used Vigna unguiculata (cowpea), an important legume crop in Botswana and other legumes as “trap” plants using the collected soil to induce nitrogen-fixing nodule formation. We have identified drought-tolerant bacteria from Botswana soils that stimulate plant growth; many are species of Bacillus and Paenibacillus . In contrast, the cowpea nodule microbiomes from plants grown in these soils house mainly rhizobia particularly Bradyrhizobium , but also Methylobacterium spp. Hence, the nodule microbiome is much more limited in non-rhizobial diversity compared to the soil microbiome, but also contains a number of potential pathogenic bacteria.

Kosty, Melissa↗

DOE OSTI2025

Agrivoltaics as a climate-smart and resilient solution for midday depression in photosynthesis in dryland regions

Global projections of increased temperature and aridity have exacerbated concerns over our potential to achieve Sustainable Development Goals associated with food, energy, and water futures. We evaluated the implications of an agrivoltaics approach—combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics—on the microclimate growing conditions of crop species. While agrivoltaics is being explored globally for its potential to reduce soil evaporation rates and impact yield, empirical research on the mechanistic drivers of the potential for agrivoltaics is needed. Agrivoltaics mitigated the midday depression in photosynthesis experienced by crops grown in hot and arid environments, which led to reduced water stress, equal or greater daily carbon assimilation, and equal or greater yield across all crops. Our findings indicate agrivoltaics could be a climate-smart agricultural approach, and the diurnal resolution of our data points towards mechanisms for optimizing agrivoltaic designs to align with Sustainable Development Goals for food and energy production and water savings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of genomic selection and marker-assisted selection in Miscanthus and energycane

Abstract Although energycane ( Saccharum spp. hybrids) is widely used as a source of lignocellulosic biomass for bioethanol, breeding this crop for disease resistance is challenging due to its narrow genetic base. Therefore, efforts are underway to introgress novel sources of genetic resistance from Miscanthus into energycane. Given that disease resistance in energycane could be either qualitative or quantitative in nature, careful examination of a wide variety of genomic-enabled breeding approaches will be crucial to the success of such an undertaking. Here we examined the efficiency of both genomic selection (GS) and marker-assisted selection (MAS) for traits simulated under different genetic architectures in F 1 and BC 1 populations of Miscanthus × Miscanthus and sugarcane × sugarcane crosses. We observed that the performance of MAS was comparable and sometimes superior to GS for traits simulated with four quantitative trait nucleotides (QTNs). In contrast, as the number of simulated QTN increased, all four GS models that were evaluated tended to outperform MAS, select more phenotypically optimal F 1 individuals, and accurately predict simulated trait values in subsequent BC 1 generations. We therefore conclude that GS is preferable to MAS for introgressing genetic sources of horizontal disease resistance from Miscanthus to energycane, while MAS remains a suitable option for introgressing vertical disease resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spaced out: An economic framework to explore the impacts of PV panel spacing on large-scale farming in Colorado

CONTEXT Agrivoltaic systems co-locate solar technologies with agricultural operations on an integrated plot of land and potentially provide benefits to both energy and agricultural systems. To date, large-scale (>5-MW) agrivoltaic projects in the United States have been limited to grazing and ecovoltaic applications, raising questions about the impact and scalability of agrivoltaic crop systems. Many agrivoltaic designs raise the height of the solar panels to accommodate agricultural practices while keeping energy density high. However, raising the panels results in increased photovoltaic (PV) development costs, which often are higher than the economic returns of crop production underneath the panels. This leads to unfavorable project economics and the need for other agrivoltaic solutions than raising panels. OBJECTIVE To explore other solutions, we perform an initial feasibility analysis for an agrivoltaic solution that can integrate with large-scale farming practices by increasing the row spacing in between panels. Increased PV row spacing is a low-cost approach for scaling agrivoltaics to accommodate crop production and this spacing can be tailored to required crop equipment for different regions. Increasing row spacing will reduce the power density (PV installed per acre), but in areas that are not land limited, these agrivoltaic designs could be economically feasible. Our analysis establishes a framework for a feasibility analysis for where and with what crops spaced out panel agrivoltaic solutions might be economical. METHODS Using a case study for large-scale agriculture crops in Colorado, we establish a framework for wide-row agrivoltaic economic feasibility analysis. We utilized the System Advisor Model to calculate technoeconomic metrics to compare different row spacing solutions and capture tradeoffs of these system designs. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We find that, in some circumstances, wider row agrivoltaic solutions that allow for continued mechanized crop production can provide economic benefits over a traditional utility-scale PV system. For most crops examined in this analysis, roughly $\$$200/acre in agricultural profit justified spacing out the panels to at least 31.7 ft. to accommodate agrivoltaic configurations versus PV only configurations. Additionally, opportunities for increased agricultural revenue with agrivoltaic systems allow PV project economics to tolerate a larger range of CAPEX variability while remaining economically viable relative to the PV only configurations. SIGNIFICANCE This framework can be adapted for a wide variety of crops and regions and allows for examination of economically favorable sites for future agrivoltaic systems that utilize different configuration and expand opportunities for agrivoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining Crop Coefficients Using Remote Sensing for the Maipo River Valley Basin in Chile

Agriculture is the primary use of water in the Maipo River Valley of Central Chile, accounting for ~ 75% of the total demand. Assessment of irrigation needs for agricultural production has commonly relied on reference crop coefficients (Kc) derived from geographic and climatic conditions that differ from those of Chile. This work focused on calculating site-specific Kc values tailored to crop production in the water-stressed Maipo River Valley over consecutive growing seasons from 2019 to 2022. Two distinct approaches were implemented, each relying on remotely-sensed NASA Earth observation datasets. The first method estimated Kc values based on the linear relationship with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from either Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) or Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) surface reflectance. The second technique leveraged information from the ISS Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) by computing the ratio between actual crop evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration. The former approach best captured vegetation signals of annual crops while the latter appeared best suited for perennials. Overall, this study provides a strong basis and novel way to accurately estimate Kc using remote sensing, with the potential for improved irrigation management and reduction in water consumption.

Rishudh Thadur↗

DOE OSTI2020

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

Agriculture yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally (via international commodity markets). How important to U.S. agriculture are domestic changes due to climate compared to those occurring externally? Here we show that potential direct impacts to United States agriculture have financial impacts on U.S. producers that are roughly similar in magnitude but opposite in sign to impacts on U.S. producers due to changes in other parts of the world. This finding is robust across application of a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts applied to a multi-sector global integrated assessment model. Therefore, when examining country-specific impacts, it is necessary to model both the domestic and international impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗