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At least 361 records · Page 20

Biorefinery siting and sizing to achieve the US Billion‐Ton Bioeconomy vision: A case study using a gasification–Fischer–Tropsch process

Achieving a secure, abundant, and affordable energy future requires a robust and adaptable energy strategy, with bioenergy playing a pivotal role. Biomass-based energy presents a promising pathway to use domestic resources while fostering economic opportunities in rural areas. Despite the potential to source more than 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually in the US, significant infrastructure and economic barriers hinder full utilization for energy production. This study used the Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model to assess biorefinery siting and scale and determine the number and size of facilities required to maximize use of the US biomass potential. A spatially agnostic approach first assessed the effects of facility capacity and transportation constraints on biomass use. Then, a spatially explicit analysis integrated county-level biomass availability from the US Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report and technoeconomic assessments to evaluate different biorefinery deployment scenarios. The results indicate that an optimized mix of facility sizes is essential to leverage biomass resources fully across varying regional production densities to maximize use of the US biomass potential. Larger biorefineries or co-located smaller facilities significantly enhance biomass use while reducing costs through economies of scale. These findings underscore the importance of strategically balancing facility capacity and spatial distribution to optimize the bioenergy supply chain. In conclusion, this study provides critical insights for advancing the US bioenergy economy by aligning biorefinery deployment with biomass resource availability and economic viability.

BILT Model↗

Postirradiation examination of HFIR-irradiated yttrium hydrides

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP) is advancing key technologies to enable the deployment of truck-transportable, plug-and-play microreactors that operate at low power levels (< 20 MW th ), but at high temperatures (> 600 °C), while ensuring inherently safe reactor operation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE Standard Canister Loading Methodology Poster

Over 250 different types of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) are managed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The current configuration of SNF at INL is not transportable off-site. In the Yucca Mountain Repository License Application, the SNF was to be loaded into DOE Standard Canisters which are capable of storage, transportation, and eventual disposal using the proper overpacks. The DOE Standard Canister will allow INL to place the SNF in a Road-Ready configuration in preparation for transportation off-site. The focus of this work is development of a general loading methodology for the DOE Standard Canister. This methodology is to be general enough that it will apply to all SNF to be loaded into the DOE Standard Canister. The main sections of the methodology to be outlined are prerequisites before loading (including any issues with materials such as inserts or baskets), loading of SNF, and canister closure and quality assurance (including welding and inspection). Each subsection will analyze and provide the bases for each step.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Used Nuclear Fuel Management Using the Next Generation System Analysis Model

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is leading the National effort to manage the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, encompassing the safe transportation, storage/staging, and/or eventual disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is DOE’s discrete-event, agent-based simulation tool designed to model the full life cycle of UNF from reactor discharge to final disposal. NGSAM supports the DOE Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition by enabling a detailed, scenario-based analysis of logistics, infrastructure, and shipping strategies. NGSAM replaces legacy models with a modern, flexible platform built on Repast Simphony and enhanced by the Process Analysis Tool. NGSAM simulates the movement and interaction of individual fuel assemblies with system components such as canisters, casks, railcars, and facilities. The model integrates with the Java Transportation Operations Model to plan and execute transportation scenarios, supporting both constrained and unconstrained resource allocation. Key features include customizable allocation and acceptance algorithms, detailed facility-level operations, and a Quick Edit tool for rapid scenario adjustments. NGSAM supports multimodal transportation modeling (e.g. rail, road, barge) and provides comprehensive cost, schedule, and infrastructure data. NGSAM utilizes data from sources such as DOE’s STANDARDS UNF database and DOE’s Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation, while also allowing user-defined inputs for scenario customization. NGSAM enables stakeholders to evaluate complex UNF management strategies, assess system performance under varying assumptions, and inform decision making for future infrastructure investments. Its modular architecture and integration with other Integrated Waste Management System tools make it a critical asset for planning the safe and efficient disposition of the Nation’s growing UNF inventory.

Craig, Brian [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

Conceptual Model Update of Mercury Sources and Flux at Y-12 and Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge,Tennessee

The interactions between the key processes that control the fate and transport of mercury (Hg) in the sediments, groundwater, and stream water within the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee are complex, and many aspects are not well understood. In contaminated environments such as Y-12, conceptual models are frequently developed to aid in visualizing and understanding the dynamic nature of the hydrologic, geochemical, and physical environment. These conceptual models integrate data in an internally consistent manner to understand processes that control the fate and transport of contaminants. Over the past few decades of environmental investigation at Y-12, a number of conceptual models have been developed to identify and define various technical processes at various scales. The main purpose of the activities described in this report is to update the 2011 conceptual model for Upper East Fork Poplar Creek using the most recent Hg concentration and flux data and informed scientific interpretation. Emphasis was placed on improving the previous model by implementing a more detailed spatial and temporal approach to visualize transport pathways in the watershed and trends in flux and concentration over time, and to compare baseflow and stormflow system dynamics. Detailed descriptions of historical and current Hg sources and transport pathways are also provided for the east and west ends of the facility. This conceptual model will allow the US Department of Energy to evaluate past and present remedial activities and provide a strong technical basis for prioritizing and optimizing remedial responses in a cost-effective and efficient manner. Twenty years ago, Hg flux from Outfall (OF) 200 at the headwaters of East Fork Poplar Creek represented approximately 20% of the overall flux leaving Y-12. By the time of the 2011 conceptual model report, that percentage had increased to 70%–80%. Flux estimates compiled for this report using data from 2009 to 2018 show that OF200 accounted for roughly 60% of the flux leaving Y-12. The relative role of the four storm drain conduits to OF200 appeared similar to 2011, with OF163 being the greatest contributor to downstream flux. An increase in Hg concentrations and flux occurred throughout and downstream of west end storm drains in 2011 in response to a storm drain cleanout. Leading up to the 2011 storm drain cleanout, annual baseflow flux was higher at OF200A6 than at Station 17. From 2011 to 2018, the trend reversed with concentrations and flux being higher at Station 17 than at OF200A6. A spike in concentrations occurred in July 2018, potentially due to a one-time influx of Hg that occurred during COLEX decontamination and decommissioning activities at Y-12. This report includes recommendations for improving our conceptual understanding of Hg sources, transport pathways, and flux at Y-12. Important recommendations include further evaluation of transport pathways, concurrent measurement of Hg concentration and flux under baseflow and stormflow conditions at multiple sites, and research to understand the connections among periphyton and methylmercury concentration, bioavailability, and bioaccumulation. Ongoing facility decontamination and decommissioning efforts, site characterization, remedial actions, and research are facilitating the collection of new Hg data at Y-12. The conceptual model update provided herein takes advantage of the extensive recent Hg sampling to provide an updated assessment of Hg mass balance and support a refined understanding of Hg behavior at or near Y-12. This assessment should assist in future environmental management decisions and in mitigating the impacts of Hg on the surrounding environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Microreactor Program Plan for The Department of Energy

The DOE Microreactor Program was established in FY 2019 to support research and development (R&D) of technologies related to the development, demonstration, and deployment of low-power, transportable reactors to provide power and heat for decentralized generation in civilian, industrial, and defense energy sectors. The program conducts both fundamental and applied R&D to de-risk technology performance and manufacturability readiness of microreactors. R&D projects and work packages are selected to support concept-neutral technology maturation. The intent is to ensure those concepts can be licensed and deployed by commercial entities to meet specific use case requirements. At the same time, the program will also support R&D specific to certain reactor technology groups (e.g., heat pipe reactors and gas-cooled reactors) to ensure relevancy and address the technology needs of commercial developers. The program will ensure coordination of work and activities across participating laboratories and universities, establish, and manage stakeholder interactions, and support program meetings. These stakeholders include, but are not limited to, industry developers, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Department of Energy, policymakers, and end users. This document provides an overview of the overall Microreactor Program, including its vision, key technical objectives, and scope of the current and proposed R&D portfolio. It covers a 5-year rolling currently from Fiscal year 2025 through Fiscal year 2030. This document will be revised at least biennially to reflect changing priorities.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Draft Prototype Microreactor Transportation Safety Program

Microreactors are compact reactors capable of producing less than 50 megawatts of electrical energy. Typically, these reactors are factory-fabricated and designed to be easily transportable by truck, rail, vessel, or air. Microreactor designs often assume that the unit can be transported containing either unirradiated or irradiated fuel. The interest in microreactors is driven by several factors, including the need to generate power on at remote locations, at military installations, at facilities such as data centers, and in areas recovering from natural disasters. The U.S. Department of Defense is actively pursuing the microreactor concept to meet the increasing energy demands of military operations that require portable and dense power sources. Commercial vendors are also exploring microreactor concepts. The report Microreactor Transportation Emergency Planning Challenges (Maheras et al. 2024) outlined the emergency planning challenges associated with the transportation of microreactors by road, rail, and by barge/ship. The successful commercial deployment and redeployment of microreactors will also require the development of microreactor transportation safety programs. The elements in these safety programs are not specific to microreactors; however, the transport of microreactors may pose unique challenges in these areas. This report builds on the report Microreactor Transportation Emergency Planning Challenges (Maheras et al. 2024) and develops the elements of a prototype microreactor transportation safety program that describes the elements that should be contained vendor-developed microreactor transportation safety programs, identifying the unique elements associated with microreactor transport. This will provide vendors and their transportation contractors a basis for their transportation planning and will accelerate the commercial deployment and redeployment of microreactors by identifying those issues unique to microreactor transport. The emphasis of this report is on highway transport of microreactors. This is based on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission transportation package approval strategy of crawl-walk-run, where transport by highway is evaluated first (Coles et al. 2021, 2024, Maheras et al. 2021), then other surface modes (rail and barge/ship), and finally air transport. Evaluation of maritime transport of microreactors was recently initiated (Rigato et al. 2024, Maheras et al. 2025). The report first discusses microreactors in general and microreactor transportation safety program planning assumptions. The report then provides a description of the transportation safety planning process and provides an extensive discussion of the elements of transportation safety programs. Specific elements examined included transportation roles and responsibilities, transportation planning, transportation mode and route selection, carrier selection, transportation packaging, advance notification of shipments, public information and communications, emergency response plans and procedures, inspections, security, safe parking, shipment tracking, weather and road conditions, medical preparedness, training and exercises, and program evaluation. The report then identifies the unique elements of a transportation safety program associated with microreactor transport. These unique elements were in the areas of: the unusual nature of microreactor designs, compensatory measures, increased radiation dose rates in the vicinity of microreactors, transportation package approval versus 10 CFR 50.59, and the use of a risk-informed transportation package approval process.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of the Radioactive Material Released in the Harborview Research and Training Building and Some Implications for Emergency Response

On 2 May 2019, during the 137 Cs source recovery operation, a source capsule in a research irradiator containing approximately 77.1 TBq was breached. Based on a geometric reconstruction analysis of the damage to the capsule, approximately 46.3 GBq (0.04%) was impacted by the chop saw (grinder) inside a mobile hot cell on the loading dock at the University of Washington Harborview Research and Training (HRT) Building. A very small fraction of the material impacted, less than 1%, was released from the mobile hot cell and then to the rest of the HRT Building. The objectives of this project were to assess the accidental release of 137 CsCl and its implications related to emergency response methods and the ramifications of 137 CsCl transport. The phenomenology of this event was also compared with past alkali halide dispersal events. The vast number of measurements and samples collected by the remediation contractors, the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Emergency Support Team, and the small number of retrospective samples collected by the authors informed the analysis. The techniques included (1) autoradiography and electron microscopy of samples collected from the HRT Building and the irradiator, (2) 3D visualization of deposition on surfaces and within the ventilation system, and (3) a study of the damage to the source capsule to evaluate the Cs particle size and particle composition due to the grinding accident. Subsequently, the cesium contaminant transport through the numerous pathways in the building was reconstructed to assess the deposition on surfaces as a function of particle size. Furthermore, the implications for emergency response are relevant to data quality and management. A Data Quality Objective guides data collection methods so that they have appropriate accuracy and precision for the intended application. Recommendations were made with respect to the sample collection protocols and archiving of samples.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Annihilation-limited long-range exciton transport in high-mobility conjugated copolymer films

A combination of ultrafast, long-range, and low-loss excitation energy transfer from the photoreceptor location to a functionally active site is essential for cost-effective polymeric semiconductors. Delocalized electronic wavefunctions along π-conjugated polymer (CP) backbone can enable efficient intrachain transport, while interchain transport is generally thought slow and lossy due to weak chain–chain interactions. In contrast to the conventional strategy of mitigating structural disorder, amorphous layers of rigid CPs, exemplified by highly planar poly(indacenodithiophene-co-benzothiadiazole) (IDT-BT) donor-accepter copolymer, exhibit trap-free transistor performance and charge-carrier mobilities similar to amorphous silicon. Here, we report long-range exciton transport in HJ -aggregated IDTBT thin-film, in which the competing exciton transport and exciton–exciton annihilation (EEA) dynamics are spectroscopically separated using a phase-cycling-based scheme and shown to depart from the classical diffusion-limited and strong-coupling regime. In the thin film, we find an annihilation-limited mechanism with ≪100% per-encounter annihilation probability, facilitating the minimization of EEA-induced excitation losses. In contrast, excitons on isolated IDTBT chains diffuse over 350 nm with 0.56 cm 2 s −1 diffusivity, before eventually annihilating with unit probability on first contact. We complement the pump–probe studies with temperature-dependent photocurrent and EEA measurements from 295 K to 77 K and find a remarkable correspondence of annihilation rate and photocurrent activation energies in the 140 K to 295 K temperature range.

Shi, Yuping (ORCID:0000000318289415)↗

Cloud condensation nuclei characteristics at the Southern Great Plains site: role of particle size distribution and aerosol hygroscopicity

The activation ability of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is crucial in climate and hydrological cycle studies, but their properties are not well known. We investigated the long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol properties, CCN concentrations (N CCN ) at supersaturation (SS = 0.1%–1.0%), and hygroscopicity at the Department of Energy's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to illustrate the dependence of N CCN on aerosol properties and transport pathways. Cluster analysis was applied to the back trajectories of air masses to investigate their respective source regions. The results showed that aged biomass burning aerosols from Central America were characterized by higher accumulation mode particles (N accu ; median value 805 cm -3 ) and relatively high aerosol hygroscopicity (κ; median value ~0.25) values that result in the higher CCN activation and relatively high N CCN (median value 258–1578 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%). Aerosols from the Gulf of Mexico were characterized by higher N accu (~35%), and N CCN (230–1721 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%) with the lowest κ (~0.17). In contrast, relatively high nucleation mode particles (N nucl ; ~20%) and low N CCN (128–1553 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%) with higher κ (~0.30) values were observed on the aerosols associated with a westerly wind. The results indicate particle size as the most critical factor influencing the ability of aerosols to activate, whereas the effect of chemical composition was secondary. Our CCN closure analysis suggests that chemical composition and mixing state information are more crucial at lower SS, whereas at higher SS, most particles become activated regardless of their chemical composition and size. This study affirms that soluble organic fraction information is required at higher SS for better N CCN prediction, but both the soluble organics fraction and mixing state are vital to reduce the N CCN prediction uncertainty at lower SS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Celeritas: GPU-accelerated particle transport for detector simulation in High Energy Physics experiments

Within the next decade, experimental High Energy Physics (HEP) will enter a new era of scientific discovery through a set of targeted programs recommended by the Particle Physics Project Prioritization Panel (P5), including the upcoming High Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (LHC) HL-LHC upgrade and the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). These efforts in the Energy and Intensity Frontiers will require an unprecedented amount of computational capacity on many fronts including Monte Carlo (MC) detector simulation. In order to alleviate this impending computational bottleneck, the Celeritas MC particle transport code is designed to leverage the new generation of heterogeneous computer architectures, including the exascale computing power of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Leadership Computing Facilities (LCFs), to model targeted HEP detector problems at the full fidelity of Geant4. This paper presents the planned roadmap for Celeritas, including its proposed code architecture, physics capabilities, and strategies for integrating it with existing and future experimental HEP computing workflows.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Airport Risk Assessment Model Stakeholder Symposium Event Report

On June 22-23, 2021, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory hosted a two-day virtual stakeholder symposium to share how the Airport Risk Assessment Model (ARAM) is putting security resource allocation planning into the hands of our airport’s front lines of defense. This report highlights the key takeaways from the discussions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project Sibling Pin Test Campaign Closeout Summary

The Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) was established within the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) to conduct research and development (R&D) activities associated with storage, transportation, and disposal of used or spent nuclear fuel (UNF or SNF) and high-level radioactive waste.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Achieving Economy-wide Net-Zero Solutions: The Essential Role of Nuclear Energy

The Biden administration has committed to full decarbonization of the U.S. electricity grid by 2035 and economy-wide net zero emissions by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Programs within the Department of Energy are addressing these holistic solutions. Traditionally, electricity generation and management and meeting energy demands for industry and transportation are considered independently. As we seek to achieve net zero, we need to reassess our energy demands. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, as well as transportation. These sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to use all of the clean energy resources that we have available. That means coordinating the use of nuclear, renewables, and fossil fuels with carbon capture to meet growing demands for electricity, industrial applications, and mobility. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and various chemicals. This presentation will highlight advanced nuclear technologies under development today and will provide a glimpse into the wide array of R&D being conducted across multiple DOE-funded programs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Capturing Travel Mode Adoption in Designing On-Demand Multimodal Transit Systems

This paper studies how to integrate rider mode preferences into the design of on-demand multimodal transit systems (ODMTSs). It is motivated by a common worry in transit agencies that an ODMTS may be poorly designed if the latent demand, that is, new riders adopting the system, is not captured. This paper proposes a bilevel optimization model to address this challenge, in which the leader problem determines the ODMTS design, and the follower problems identify the most cost efficient and convenient route for riders under the chosen design. The leader model contains a choice model for every potential rider that determines whether the rider adopts the ODMTS given her proposed route. To solve the bilevel optimization model, the paper proposes an exact decomposition method that includes Benders optimal cuts and no-good cuts to ensure the consistency of the rider choices in the leader and follower problems. Moreover, to improve computational efficiency, the paper proposes upper and lower bounds on trip durations for the follower problems, valid inequalities that strengthen the no-good cuts, and approaches to reduce the problem size with problem-specific preprocessing techniques. The proposed method is validated using an extensive computational study on a real data set from the Ann Arbor Area Transportation Authority, the transit agency for the broader Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti region in Michigan. The study considers the impact of a number of factors, including the price of on-demand shuttles, the number of hubs, and access to transit systems criteria. The designed ODMTSs feature high adoption rates and significantly shorter trip durations compared with the existing transit system and highlight the benefits of ensuring access for low-income riders. Finally, the computational study demonstrates the efficiency of the decomposition method for the case study and the benefits of computational enhancements that improve the baseline method by several orders of magnitude. Funding: This research was partly supported by National Science Foundation [Leap HI Proposal NSF-1854684] and the Department of Energy [Research Award 7F-30154].

Operations Research & Management Science↗

Examining Aerosol Vertical Transport and Removal during Deep Convective Events

Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Globally, the free troposphere is a major source of nucleation- and Aitken-mode aerosols due to the enhanced new particle formation rates at high altitudes. Recent studies have shown deep convective systems are capable of transporting these small aerosols from the free troposphere to the boundary layer by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the stratiform regions. These vertically transported aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and play a significant role in the global climate. During the deep convective processes, existing accumulation-mode aerosols that act as coagulation sinks of smaller particles are also removed by wet scavenging. Compared to the vertical transport of these particles by entrainment mixing, which is slower but more prevalent, the deep convective downdraft processes may be more rapid and efficient in the vertical transport of aerosols. However, most of the current climate models do not include this mechanism as a source of CCN, mainly because the frequency of deep convective events varies significantly with geographic location and thus their contributions to CCN are unpredictable. We target this critical gap in understanding the vertical transport and removal of aerosols by deep convections. We proposed to analyze a multi-year, multi-site measurement record available from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM program, including the observations from the 2014/15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign, the 2017/18 Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign, the 2018/19 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign, the 2021/22 Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign, and the long-term measurements collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, where deep convective clouds were frequently observed. This project is aimed at the following three objectives: (1) Gaining a detailed and quantitative understanding of the aerosols transported by a convective downdraft and their evolution in the atmosphere; (2) Examining the wet scavenging mechanisms and efficiencies of aerosols at altitudes of deep convective systems based on ground and aircraft measurements; (3) Evaluating the contribution of deep convective systems to CCN as both a source and a sink of atmospheric aerosols and its seasonal variabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Hydrogen Concept within the United States

The U.S. energy system is evolving as society and technologies change. Renewable electricity generation - especially from wind and solar - is growing rapidly, and alternative energy sources are being developed and implemented across the residential, commercial, transportation, and industrial sectors to take advantage of their cost, security, and health benefits. Systemic changes present numerous challenges to grid resiliency and energy affordability, creating a need for synergistic solutions that satisfy multiple applications while yielding system-wide cost and emissions benefits. One such solution is an integrated hydrogen energy system. This is the focus of H2@Scale - a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiative led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Hydrogen and Fuel Technologies Office. H2@Scale brings together stakeholders to advance affordable hydrogen production, transport, storage, and utilization in multiple energy sectors. The H2@Scale concept involves hydrogen as an energy intermediate. Hydrogen can be produced from various conventional and renewable energy sources including as a responsive load on the electric grid. Hydrogen has many current applications and many more potential applications, such as energy for transportation - used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, and to upgrade oil and biomass - feedstock for industry (e.g., for ammonia production, metals refining, and other end uses), heat for industry and buildings, and electricity storage. Owing to its flexibility and fungibility, a hydrogen intermediate could link energy sources that have surplus availability to markets that require energy or chemical feedstocks, benefiting both. This document builds upon a growing body of analyses of hydrogen as an energy intermediate by reporting the results from our initial analysis of the potential impacts of the H2@Scale vision by the mid-21 st century for the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Previous estimates have been based on expert elicitation and focused on hydrogen demands. We build upon them, first, by estimating hydrogen’s serviceable consumption potential for possible hydrogen applications and the technical potential for producing hydrogen from various resources. We define the serviceable consumption potential as the quantity of hydrogen that would be consumed to serve the portion of the market that could be captured without considering economics (i.e., if the price of hydrogen were $0/kg over an extended period); thus, it can be considered an upper bound for the size of the market. We define the technical potential as the resource potential constrained by real-world geography and system performance, but not by economics. We then compare the cumulative serviceable consumption potential with the technical potential of a number of possible sources. Second, we estimate economic potential: the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen. We believe this method provides a deeper understanding than was available in the previous analyses. We develop economic potentials for multiple scenarios across various market and technology-advancement assumptions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Impacts of long-range transport of aerosols on marine-boundary-layer clouds in the eastern North Atlantic

Vertical profiles of aerosols are inadequately observed and poorly represented in climate models, contributing to the current large uncertainty associated with aerosol–cloud interactions. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) aircraft field campaign near the Azores islands provided ample observations of vertical distributions of aerosol and cloud properties. Here we utilize the in situ aircraft measurements from the ACE-ENA and ground-based remote-sensing data along with an aerosol-aware Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to characterize the aerosols due to long-range transport over a remote region and to assess their possible influence on marine-boundary-layer (MBL) clouds. The vertical profiles of aerosol and cloud properties measured via aircraft during the ACE-ENA campaign provide detailed information revealing the physical contact between transported aerosols and MBL clouds. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (ECMWF-CAMS) aerosol reanalysis data can reproduce the key features of aerosol vertical profiles in the remote region. The cloud-resolving WRF sensitivity experiments with distinctive aerosol profiles suggest that the transported aerosols and MBL cloud interactions (ACIs) require not only aerosol plumes to get close to the marine-boundary-layer top but also large cloud top height variations. Based on those criteria, the observations show that the occurrence of ACIs involving the transport of aerosol over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is about 62 % in summer. For the case with noticeable long-range-transport aerosol effects on MBL clouds, the susceptibilities of droplet effective radius and liquid water content are -0.11 and +0.14, respectively. When varying by a similar magnitude, aerosols originating from the boundary layer exert larger microphysical influence on MBL clouds than those entrained from the free troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗