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At least 361 records · Page 20

'Top 10' Facility Decommissioning Risks and Mitigation Strategies to Prevent Them - 16487

Decommissioning represents a set of risks that differ from facility design and construction, operations, or maintenance. An informal poll was taken querying experienced facility decommissioning project and program managers in government and private business sectors about top decommissioning risks. The poll considered experience in nuclear, fossil fuel, and oil and gas projects in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. A classic risk assessment process was performed, where the likelihood and consequence(s) of impacts, typical or most commonly used controls, and the most effective mitigation strategies for various risks were identified. The risks that polled with the highest rankings were identified as the 'Top 10' decommissioning risks. Roger VanScoy stated 'Knowing our risks provides opportunities to manage and improve our chances of success.' The purpose of this effort was to identify and share the 'Top 10' decommissioning risks with those in the nuclear, fossil fuel, and oil and gas industry to help anticipate and manage those risks more effectively, avoid or reduce the potential consequences of the risks, and improve the chances of project success. Douglas Adams said: 'Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so'. The information provided shares experiences, knowledge, and effective mitigation strategies from those with successful decommissioning experience so that others can learn and avoid the adverse consequences of risks inherent with decommissioning projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Detection and variability of combustion-derived vapor in an urban basin

Abstract. Water emitted during combustion may comprise a significant portion of ambient humidity (> 10 %) in urban areas, where combustion emissions are strongly focused in space and time. Stable water vapor isotopes can be used to apportion measured humidity values between atmospherically transported and combustion-derived water vapor, as combustion-derived vapor possesses an unusually negative deuterium excess value (d-excess, d = δ 2 H − 8 δ 18 O). We investigated the relationship between the d-excess of atmospheric vapor, ambient CO 2 concentrations, and atmospheric stability across four winters in Salt Lake City, Utah. We found a robust inverse relationship between CO 2 excess above background and d-excess on sub-diurnal to seasonal timescales, which was most prominent during periods of strong atmospheric stability that occur during Salt Lake City winter. Using a Keeling-style mixing model approach, and assuming a molar ratio of H 2 O to CO 2 in emissions of 1.5, we estimated the d-excess of combustion-derived vapor in Salt Lake City to be −179 ± 17 ‰, consistent with the upper limit of theoretical estimates. Based on this estimate, we calculate that vapor from fossil fuel combustion often represents 5–10 % of total urban humidity, with a maximum estimate of 16.7 %, consistent with prior estimates for Salt Lake City. Moreover, our analysis highlights that changes in the observed d-excess during periods of high atmospheric stability cannot be explained without a vapor source possessing a strongly negative d-excess value. Further refinements in this humidity apportionment method, most notably empirical validation of the d-excess of combustion vapor or improvements in the estimation of the background d-excess value in the absence of combustion, can yield more certain estimates of the impacts of fossil fuel combustion on urban humidity and meteorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-Scale Carbon Removal Will Create Public Health, Economic, and Climate Tradeoffs

Economy-wide efforts to achieve net-zero emissions offer both climate and air quality-related public health benefits from reducing fossil fuel combustion. We explore the expected costs and benefits if carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is deployed at scale in support of these efforts. Six leading forms of CDR at two levels of deployment are compared to a scenario with no U.S. climate action. We find that heavy reliance on CDR avoids a $2.5-5.8 trillion USD2020 in climate damages, provides $2.8-6.5 trillion USD2020 public health benefits, returns $5-6 trillion USD2020 in CDR revenues, but requires $11-13 trillion USD2020 CO2 mitigation cost, cumulatively by 2050 in the U.S. In contrast, lower reliance on CDR requires much deeper near-term fossil-fuel reductions, which increases mitigation costs by 52% but also creates 26% higher public health benefits from reductions in particulate matter- and ozone-related mortality and morbidity, preventing about 12,600 premature deaths by mid-century in the U.S.

Javadi, Parisa↗

Energy Storage and Decarbonization Analysis for Energy Regulators: Technical Analysis for the Illinois Commerce Commission

Jurisdictions around the world are enacting and enforcing an increasing number of policies to fight climate change, leading to higher penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage systems (ESSs) in the power grid. One of the biggest challenges associated with this process is the evaluation of the appropriate amount of ESS required to mitigate the variability of the VREs and achieve decarbonization goals of a particular jurisdiction. This report presents methodologies developed and results obtained for determining the minimum amount of ESS required to adequately serve load in a system where fossil fueled generators are being replaced by VREs over the next two decades. This technical analysis is performed by Sandia National Laboratories for the DOE Office of Electricity Energy Storage Program in collaboration with the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC). The Illinois MISO Zone 4 is used as a case study. Several boundary conditions are investigated in this analysis including capacity adequacy and energy adequacy to determine the quantity of ESS required for MISO Zone 4. Multiple scenarios are designed and evaluated to incorporate the impact of varying capacity values of VREs and on the resource adequacy of the system. Several retirement scenarios involving fossil-fueled assets are also considered. Based on the current plans of new additions and retirements of generating assets, the results of the technical analysis indicate that Illinois MISO Zone 4 will require a significant quantity of ESS to satisfy their electricity demand over the next two decades.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Public policy for solar heating and cooling

Recent analyses indicated that solar heating and cooling systems for residential buildings are nearly economically competitive with conventional fossil fuel or electric systems, the former having higher initial cost but a lower operating cost than the latter. The paper examines obstacles to the widespread acceptance and use of solar space conditioning systems and explores some general policies which could help to overcome them. The discussion covers such institutional barriers limiting the adoption of solar technologies as existing building codes, financing constraints, and organizational structure of the building industry. The potential impact of financial incentives is analyzed. It is noted that a tax incentive of 25% could speed the use of solar energy by 7 to 8 years and produce an 8% reduction in fossil fuel use by 1990. A preliminary incentive package which could be helpful in promoting solar energy both at federal and state levels is proposed, and the necessary incentive level is analysed.

Hirshberg, A. S.↗

The greenhouse gas cost of agricultural intensification with groundwater irrigation in a Midwest U.S. row cropping system

Abstract Groundwater irrigation of cropland is expanding worldwide with poorly known implications for climate change. This study compares experimental measurements of the net global warming impact of a rainfed versus a groundwater‐irrigated corn (maize)–soybean–wheat, no‐till cropping system in the Midwest US, the region that produces the majority of U.S. corn and soybean. Irrigation significantly increased soil organic carbon (C) storage in the upper 25 cm, but not by enough to make up for the CO 2 ‐equivalent (CO 2 e) costs of fossil fuel power, soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and degassing of supersaturated CO 2 and N 2 O from the groundwater. A rainfed reference system had a net mitigating effect of −13.9 (±31) g CO 2 e m −2 year −1 , but with irrigation at an average rate for the region, the irrigated system contributed to global warming with net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 27.1 (±32) g CO 2 e m −2 year −1 . Compared to the rainfed system, the irrigated system had 45% more GHG emissions and 7% more C sequestration. The irrigation‐associated increase in soil N 2 O and fossil fuel emissions contributed 18% and 9%, respectively, to the system's total emissions in an average irrigation year. Groundwater degassing of CO 2 and N 2 O are missing components of previous assessments of the GHG cost of groundwater irrigation; together they were 4% of the irrigated system's total emissions. The irrigated system's net impact normalized by crop yield (GHG intensity) was +0.04 (±0.006) kg CO 2 e kg −1 yield, close to that of the rainfed system, which was −0.03 (±0.002) kg CO 2 e kg −1 yield. Thus, the increased crop yield resulting from irrigation can ameliorate overall GHG emissions if intensification by irrigation prevents land conversion emissions elsewhere, although the expansion of irrigation risks depletion of local water resources.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

U.S. Department of Energy Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment Experiments: FACE Results, Lessons, and Legacy

In the 1970s, growing concern about potential long-range consequences of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels prompted the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to begin developing a CO 2 research program. The goal was to obtain the scientific information needed to reduce uncertainty and develop a knowledgebase for decision-making. At its start in 1980, this program had three components: the global carbon cycle, climate effects, and vegetation effects. The vegetation effects component recognized that increased atmospheric CO 2 could be a potential benefit to vegetation and crops because CO 2 is an essential resource for plant growth. In addition to increasing crop yield, program developers and researchers recognized that this fertilizer effect could also result in greater storage of fossil fuel CO 2 by forests. Initial experiments were small in scale and scope and focused on the photosynthesis, physiology, and water use of crop plants, but the focus shifted toward responses of plants in natural systems, as needed for connections to the global carbon cycle. Program research investigated CO 2 interactions with other environmental variables, emphasizing field research whenever possible and recognizing that exposure to elevated CO 2 concentrations under realistic field conditions should lead to better predictions of plant response. Whole-ecosystem field experiments were instituted in low-stature ecosystems, but experiments to address forest responses necessarily relied on tree seedlings or saplings in open-top chambers (OTCs) and not within intact forest ecosystems. The need for larger-scale, longer-duration experiments in each of the world’s six major biomes (tundra, boreal forest, temperate forest, tropical forest, grassland, and desert) became clear, and for these experiments, free-air CO 2 exposure facilities were necessary. This report summarizes the objectives and main results of DOE-sponsored experiments employing such facilities, along with the outcomes from research on ecosystem responses using field chambers (see Fig. ES.1, p. x). Additionally, this report highlights the many successes of DOE CO 2 enrichment studies and considers the lessons learned that can be used to guide future initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Does vapor pressure deficit drive the seasonality of δ 13 C of the net land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange across the United States?: The Influence of VPD on δ 13 C of NEE

The seasonal pattern of the carbon isotope content (δ 13 C) of atmospheric CO 2 depends on local and nonlocal land-atmosphere exchange and atmospheric transport. Previous studies suggested that the δ13C of the net land-atmosphere CO 2 flux (δsource) varies seasonally as stomatal conductance of plants responds to vapor pressure deficit of air (VPD). We studied the variation of δ source at seven sites across the United States representing forests, grasslands, and an urban center. Using a two-part mixing model, we calculated the seasonal δsource for each site after removing background influence and, when possible, removing δ 13 C variation of nonlocal sources. Compared to previous analyses, we found a reduced seasonal (March–September) variation in δ source at the forest sites (0.5‰variation). We did not find a consistent seasonal relationship between VPD and δ source across forest (or other) sites, providing evidence that stomatal response to VPD was not the cause of the global, coherent seasonal pattern in δsource. In contrast to the forest sites, grassland and urban sites had a larger seasonal variation in δ sourc e (5‰) dominated by seasonal transitions in C 3 /C 4 grass productivity and in fossil fuel emissions, respectively. Our findings were sensitive to the location used to account for atmospheric background variation within the mixing model method that determined δsource. Special consideration should be given to background location depending on whether the intent is to understand site level dynamics or regional scale impacts of land-atmosphere exchange. The seasonal amplitude in δ 13 C of land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange (δ source ) varied across land cover types and was not driven by seasonal changes in vapor pressure deficit. The largest seasonal amplitudes of δsource were at grassland and urban sites, driven by changes in C 3 /C 4 grass productivity and fossil fuel emissions, respectively. Mixing model approaches may incorrectly calculate δs ource when background atmospheric observations are remote and/or prone to anthropogenic influence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO2 and CO2

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

Chapter 8 - Challenges and Opportunities for International Trade in Forest Biomass. In the book Mobilisation of Forest Bioenergy in the Boreal and Temperate Biomes.

In an effort to reduce fossil fuel consumption, the use of woody biomass for heat and power generation is growing. Key destination markets will be countries within the European Union (EU), particularly the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium. While demand from Asia (particularly South Korea and Japan) will also increase, it will continue to play a secondary role. Across the EU, adoption of sustainability criteria for forest biomass based on the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) 2009/28/EC or similar criteria is likely. In the UK, the largest market for traded wood pellets, such criteria have already been proposed. As of 2015, only forest biomass that achieves at least a 60% reduction in GHG emissions relative to the EU fossil fuel electricity average can be used for bioenergy production, and proof of Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) is required. In the Netherlands, the energy industry and non-governmental organizations achieved principal agreement on sustainability criteria for solid biomass, but issues of compliance testing and monitoring must still be addressed. In Flemish Belgium, the sustainability requirements for bioliquids may soon be applied to woody biomass. In Denmark, a voluntary industry agreement is set to ensure that all bioenergy production by 2019 is conducted sustainably. At present, internationally traded wood pellets from temperate and boreal biomes originate primarily from the United States (US), Canada, and Russia. Among these, Canada offers large stretches of SFM-certified forests, but the US Southeast has seen the strongest increase in wood pellet production and export in recent years. The expansion of pellet production in the US Southeast is mainly linked to available forest inventory (pulpwood in particular)and the competitive advantage gained by the relative proximity to demand markets in the EU. In addition to the mobilization barriers observed in supply chains at the local and national scale, limitations in the supply of forest biomass for international trade will be influenced by regulatory measures that could restrict the trade of specific feedstock fractions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Nitrogen rate and landscape impacts on life cycle energy use and emissions from switchgrass-derived ethanol

Switchgrass-derived ethanol has been proposed as an alternative to fossil fuels to improve sustainability of the US energy sector. In this study, life cycle analysis (LCA) was used to estimate the environmental benefits of this fuel. To better define the LCA environmental impacts associated with fertilization rates and farm-landscape topography, results from a controlled experiment were analyzed. Data from switchgrass plots planted in 2008, consistently managed with three nitrogen rates (0, 56, and 112 kg N ha –1 ), two landscape positions (shoulder and footslope), and harvested annually (starting in 2009, the year after planting) through 2014 were used as input into the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy use in transportation (GREET) model. Simulations determined nitrogen (N) rate and landscape impacts on the life cycle energy and emissions from switchgrass ethanol used in a passenger car as ethanol–gasoline blends (10% ethanol:E10, 85% ethanol:E85s). Results indicated that E85s may lead to lower fossil fuels use (58 to 77%), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (33 to 82%), and particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions (15 to 54%) in comparison with gasoline. However, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other criteria pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), and sulfur dioxides (SO x ) were higher for E85s than those from gasoline. Nitrogen rate above 56 kg N ha –1 yielded no increased biomass production benefits; but did increase (up to twofold) GHG, VOCs, and criteria pollutants. Lower blend (E10) results were closely similar to those from gasoline. The landscape topography also influenced life cycle impacts. Biomass grown at the footslope of fertilized plots led to higher switchgrass biomass yield, lower GHG, VOCs, and criteria pollutants in comparison with those at the shoulder position. Lastly, results also showed that replacing switchgrass before maximum stand life (10–20 years.) can further reduce the energy and emissions reduction benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Influence of Internal Model Variability in GEOS-5 on Interhemispheric CO2 Exchange

An ensemble of eight atmospheric CO2 simulations was completed employing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) for the years 2000-2001, each with initial meteorological conditions corresponding to different days in January 2000 to examine internal model variability. Globally, the model runs show similar concentrations of CO2 for the two years, but in regions of high CO2 concentrations due to fossil fuel emissions, large differences among different model simulations appear. The phasing and amplitude of the CO2 cycle at Northern Hemisphere locations in all of the ensemble members is similar to that of surface observations. In several southern hemisphere locations, however, some of the GEOS-5 model CO2 cycles are out of phase by as much as four months, and large variations occur between the ensemble members. This result indicates that there is large sensitivity to transport in these regions. The differences vary by latitude-the most extreme differences in the Tropics and the least at the South Pole. Examples of these differences among the ensemble members with regard to CO2 uptake and respiration of the terrestrial biosphere and CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel emissions are shown at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Integration-based flow analysis of the atmospheric circulation in the model runs shows widely varying paths of flow into the Tasmania region among the models including sources from North America, South America, South Africa, South Asia and Indonesia. These results suggest that interhemispheric transport can be strongly influenced by internal model variability.

Allen, Melissa↗

Inorganic Hydrogeochemistry in the 21st Century

Abstract Chemical and isotopic processes occur in every segment of the hydrological cycle. Hydrogeochemistry—the subdiscipline that studies these processes—has seen a transformation from “witch's brew” to credible science since 2000. Going forward, hydrogeochemical research and applications are critical to meeting urgent societal needs of climate change mitigation and clean energy, such as (1) removing CO 2 from the atmosphere and storing gigatons of CO 2 in soils and aquifers to achieve net‐zero emissions, (2) securing critical minerals in support of the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies, and (3) protecting water resources by adapting to a warming climate. In the last two decades, we have seen extensive activity and progress in four research areas of hydrogeochemistry related to water‐rock interactions: arsenic contamination of groundwater; the use of isotopic and chemical tracers to quantify groundwater recharge and submarine groundwater discharge; the kinetics of chemical reactions and the mineral‐water interface's control of contaminant fate and transport; and the transformation of geochemical modeling from an expert‐only exercise to a widely accessible tool. In the future, embracing technological advances in machine learning, cyberinfrastructure, and isotope analytical tools will allow breakthrough research and expand the role of hydrogeochemistry in meeting society's needs for climate change mitigation and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies.

Zhu, Chen (ORCID:0000000153746787)↗

Mechanistic Insights into Dinitrogen Reduction to Ammonia in Light-Controlled Nanocrystal:Nitrogenase Complexes

Developing systems that can efficiently capture photon energy and convert this energy into fuels and chemicals requires understanding how to assemble molecular components with diverse functions into complete systems possessing selectivity and efficiency in directing charge carriers to catalytic reactions. There are many challenges to achieving this goal. One promising approach is the development of hybrid systems that combine semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs) for light capture and enzymes as efficient catalysts. Such biohybrid systems capitalize on the tunable electronic and optical properties of NCs while leveraging the unmatched specificity and efficiency of enzymes in catalyzing chemical reactions, thereby offering opportunities to surpass the limitations of each component alone. Here, we focus on recent progress in developing a biohybrid system that combines CdS NCs for photon capture with the enzyme nitrogenase to accomplish light-driven dinitrogen (N 2 ) reduction to ammonia (NH 3 ). Integrating light-harvesting materials with biological catalysts requires a deep understanding of NC properties, protein stability, and electron transfer (ET), making it an inherently multidisciplinary problem. The reduction of N 2 to NH 3 is a challenging reaction, with a high demand in both agriculture and industrial chemical production. This reaction is intrinsically energy intensive, due to the need to activate the N≡N triple bond. The current standard industrial approach to N 2 reduction, the Haber−Bosch reaction, obtains the necessary energy input from fossil fuels, whereas biological systems capable of N 2 reduction utilize the hydrolysis of ATP as their energy source. Replacing these costly, energy-intensive inputs with renewable light energy represents a critical step toward sustainable NH 3 production. Recent progress has demonstrated that semiconductor CdS NCs can be coupled to the catalytic component of nitrogenase, the MoFe protein, to form a biohybrid CdS NC:MoFe protein complex, enabling light-driven N 2 reduction rather than energy input from fossil fuels or ATP. This illustrates how inorganic NCs can functionally replace the natural Fe protein partner, yielding a biohybrid catalyst that enables controlled electron delivery and provides not only light-driven NH 3 production but also new approaches for probing enzyme catalytic function. The CdS NC:MoFe protein biohybrid system enables light-initiated electron delivery at ambient temperature, as well as temperatures below freezing, allowing for stabilization and spectroscopic characterization of key reaction intermediates. These findings highlight how photochemical biohybrids can serve as both functional catalysts and mechanistic probes. Beyond studies of the nitrogenase mechanism, studies of the CdS NC:MoFe system reveal how variables such as NC size, electrostatic binding interactions, and sacrificial electron donors (SEDs) govern complex stability, charge transfer efficiency, and catalytic performance. In addition, studies of nitrogenase and the high activation barrier for N 2 reduction are enabling investigations of new and interesting questions regarding the properties and limitations of NC biocatalysis. In this Account, we describe the key features of CdS NC:MoFe protein biohybrids and the parameters for optimal light-driven N 2 reduction, and how controlling ET with light illuminates the path to new insights into the nitrogenase mechanism.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Scalable electrified cementitious materials production and recycling

The production of Portland cement, the industry-standard cement, contributes ~8% of global CO 2 emissions through fossil-fuel heating and decomposition of limestone (the primary cement raw material). Decarbonization, e.g., via direct electrification, of this 200-year-old liming routine is extremely challenging at the industry scale. We propose a scalable electrochemical decarbonization approach to circumvent the limestone use by switching to carbon-free calcium silicates from abundant minerals and recycled concrete. Water electrolysis produces protons and hydroxides to drive a pH gradient that accelerates Ca 2+ ion leaching from calcium silicates and captures atmospheric CO 2 to form carbon-negative CaCO 3 , which serves as the feedstock for cement manufacturing or as the carbon-mineralized product for cement substitution with permanent carbon storage. Value-added co-products amorphous silica and green H 2 further enhance cement performance and supplant fossil fuels for net-zero transition, respectively. The products readily meet present-day regulatory standards and demands, and the approach readily synergizes with business-as-usual cement manufacturing and concrete construction, which are important for upscaling and structural safety, promising ready reception by the public and industries. Blended Portland cement produced through our approach with carbon-negative CaCO 3 and silica demonstrates enhanced resilience and achieves carbon neutrality or negativity when incorporating storage or circulation of CO 2 from cement plant flue gas, respectively. This low-cost, electrochemical cement production approach using abundant ubiquitous raw materials enables electrification, transition to clean fuel, and decarbonization at a gigaton scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Renewable Electricity: Insights for the Coming Decade

A sophisticated set of renewable electricity (RE) generation technologies is now commercially available. Globally, RE captured approximately half of all capacity additions since 2011. The cost of RE is already competitive with fossil fuels in some areas around the world, and prices are anticipated to continue to decline over the next decade. RE options, led by wind and solar, are part of a suite of technologies and business solutions that are transforming electricity sectors around the world. Renewable deployment is expected to continue due to: increasingly competitive economics; favorable environmental characteristics such as low water use, and minimal local air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; complementary risk profiles when paired with natural gas generators; strong support from stakeholders. Despite this positive outlook for renewables, the collapse in global oil prices since mid-2014 and continued growth in natural gas supply in the United States--due to the development of low-cost shale gas--raise questions about the potential impacts of fossil fuel prices on RE. Today, oil plays a very minor role in the electricity sectors of most countries, so direct impacts on RE are likely to be minimal (except where natural gas prices are indexed on oil). Natural gas and RE generating options appear to be more serious competitors than oil and renewables. Low gas prices raise the hurdle for RE to be cost competitive. Additionally, although RE emits far less GHG than natural gas, both natural gas and RE offer the benefits of reducing carbon relative to coal and oil (see Section 4.1 for more detail on the GHG intensity of electricity technologies). However, many investors and decision makers are becoming aware of the complementary benefits of pairing natural gas and renewables to minimize risk of unstable fuel prices and maintain the reliability of electricity to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Aerosols at the poles: an AeroCom Phase II multi-model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes.The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (sea-salt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60° N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70° S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (−0.12 W m−2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗