Results for “Function Estimation” — Page 20

NASA NTRS1972

Can the ionosphere regulate magnetospheric convection?

Following a southward shift of the interplanetary magnetic field, which implies enhanced reconnection at the nose of the magnetosphere, the magnetopause shrinks from its Chapman-Ferraro equilibrium position. If the convective return of magnetic flux to the magnetopause equalled the reconnection rate, the magnetopause would not shrink. Consequently, there is a delay in the development of magnetospheric convection following the onset of reconnection, which is ascribed to line tying by the polar cusp ionosphere. A simple model relates the dayside magnetopause displacement to the currents feeding the polar cap ionosphere, from which the ionospheric electric field, and consequently, the flux return rate, may be estimated as a function of magnetopause displacement. Flux conservation arguments then permit an estimate of the time scale on which convection increases, which is not inconsistent with that of the substorm growth phase.

Coroniti, F. V.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Learning User Preferences for Sets of Objects

Most work on preference learning has focused on pairwise preferences or rankings over individual items. In this paper, we present a method for learning preferences over sets of items. Our learning method takes as input a collection of positive examples--that is, one or more sets that have been identified by a user as desirable. Kernel density estimation is used to estimate the value function for individual items, and the desired set diversity is estimated from the average set diversity observed in the collection. Since this is a new learning problem, we introduce a new evaluation methodology and evaluate the learning method on two data collections: synthetic blocks-world data and a new real-world music data collection that we have gathered.

preferences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Distribution System Voltage Regulation using State Estimation and DER Grid-Support Functions

Increasing solar energy penetrations may create challenges for distribution system operations because production variability can lead to large voltage deviations or protection system miscoordination. Instituting advanced management systems on distribution systems is one promising method for combating these challenges by intelligently controlling distribution assets to regulate voltage and ensure protection safety margins. While it is generally not the case today, greater deployment of power system sensors and interoperable distributed energy resources (DER)e.g., photovoltaic (PV) inverters, energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicles (EVs)will enable situational awareness, control, and optimization of distribution systems. In this work, a control system was created which measures power system parameters to estimate the status of a feeder, forecasts the distribution state over a short-term horizon, and issues optimal set point commands to distribution-connected equipment to regulate voltage and protect the system. This two-year project integrated multiple research innovations into a management system designed to safely allow PV penetrations of 50% or greater. The integrated software was demonstrated through extensive real-time (RT) and power hardware-in-the-loop studies and a field demonstration on a live power system with a 684 kVA PV system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Near-infrared downconversion luminescence of SrMoO{sub 4}:Tm{sup 3+},Yb{sup 3+} phosphors

Graphical abstract: The calculated band structure of SrMoO{sub 4} and the visible and infrared emission spectra of SrMoO{sub 4}:1%Tm{sup 3+},10%Yb{sup 3+} phosphors under 283 nm excitation.▪ - Highlights: • Near-infrared downconversion luminescence of SrMoO{sub 4}:Tm{sup 3+},Yb{sup 3+} phosphors were systematically investigated. • The electronic structure of SrMoO{sub 4} was estimated by density functional theory. • The quenching concentration of Yb{sup 3+} ions approaches 10 mol%. • The energy transfer mechanism was discussed in detail. - Abstract: Tm{sup 3+} and Yb{sup 3+} codoped SrMoO{sub 4} phosphors were synthesized by the high-temperature solid-state reaction method. The structure, ultraviolet-visible diffuse reflectance spectra, photoluminescence, decay properties and theoretical energy transfer efficiency of the phosphors were investigated in detail. The electronic structure and band gap of SrMoO{sub 4} were estimated by density functional theory (DFT) calculation. The XRD results show that all the prepared phosphors can be readily indexed to scheelite-type structure. The strong visible emission around 473 nm from Tm{sup 3+} ({sup 1}G{sub 4} → {sup 3}H{sub 6}) and near-infrared (NIR) emission around 998 nm from Yb{sup 3+} ({sup 2}F{sub 5/2} → {sup 2}F{sub 7/2}) of the SrMoO{sub 4}:Tm{sup 3+},Yb{sup 3+} phosphors were observed under 283 nm excitation. The dependence of the visible and NIR emissions on Yb{sup 3+} concentration have also been investigated. The quenching concentration of Yb{sup 3+} ions approaches 10 mol%. In addition, the energy transfer processes and possible transfer routes were proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Residential Advanced Photovoltaic Inverter Pilot Study Results for Select Distribution Secondaries in Hawai'i

Penetration levels of residential rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on the Hawaiian island of O'ahu have increased significantly in recent years, with many circuits now at the limits of their PV hosting capacity. NREL and Hawaiian Electric have used this opportunity to deploy advanced inverters at new customer installations that would not otherwise have been approved, as a pilot study to gain first-hand operational field data and experience on the impact of inverter-based grid support functions. At each customer location, the deployed advanced inverters were remotely controlled and monitored. Additionally, customer AMI (smart meter) and secondary distribution transformer data was also available for the analysis. The analysis focused on quantifying the customer behind-the-meter voltage rise due to PV production, determining the customer voltage rise with advanced inverters in unity power factor as well as advanced grid support function modes, and estimating the curtailment when inverters have Volt-VAR and Volt-Watt enabled. The results show that: 1) Behind-the-meter voltage rise is often not negligible. 2) An inverter's operating point on a Volt-VAR/Volt-Watt curve depends strongly on the design of the secondary system on which it is installed. 3) The mitigation of voltage rise on the secondary system using Volt-VAR may not be effective if only a small proportion of inverters have grid support enabled, or if the reactance/resistance (X/R) ratio of the grid is low. 4) Volt-Watt curtailment can be estimated using co-located irradiance sensors but there may be opportunities to estimate it using inverter internal electrical measurements. 5) Estimated curtailment is very low for the locations analyzed to date.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Comparison of Land Surface Model Soil Hydraulic Properties Estimated by Inverse Modeling and Pedotransfer Functions

Soil hydraulic properties (SHPs) regulate the movement of water in the soil. This in turn plays an important role in the water and energy cycles at the land surface. At present, SHPS are commonly defined by a simple pedotransfer function from soil texture class, but SHPs vary more within a texture class than between classes. To examine the impact of using soil texture class to predict SHPS, we run the Noah land surface model for a wide variety of measured SHPs. We find that across a range of vegetation cover (5 - 80% cover) and climates (250 - 900 mm mean annual precipitation), soil texture class only explains 5% of the variance expected from the real distribution of SHPs. We then show that modifying SHPs can drastically improve model performance. We compare two methods of estimating SHPs: (1) inverse method, and (2) soil texture class. Compared to texture class, inverse modeling reduces errors between measured and modeled latent heat flux from 88 to 28 w/m(exp 2). Additionally we find that with increasing vegetation cover the importance of SHPs decreases and that the van Genuchten m parameter becomes less important, while the saturated conductivity becomes more important.

Gutmann, Ethan D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linearization errors in discrete goal-oriented error estimation

This paper is concerned with goal-oriented a posteriori error estimation for nonlinear functionals in the context of nonlinear variational problems solved with continuous Galerkin finite element discretizations. A two-level, or discrete, adjoint-based approach for error estimation is considered. The traditional method to derive an error estimate in this context requires linearizing both the nonlinear variational form and the nonlinear functional of interest which introduces linearization errors into the error estimate. In this paper, we investigate these linearization errors. In particular, we develop a novel discrete goal-oriented error estimate that accounts for traditionally neglected nonlinear terms at the expense of greater computational cost. We demonstrate how this error estimate can be used to drive mesh adaptivity. Here, we show that accounting for linearization errors in the error estimate can improve its effectivity for several nonlinear model problems and quantities of interest. We also demonstrate that an adaptive strategy based on the newly proposed estimate can lead to more accurate approximations of the nonlinear functional with fewer degrees of freedom when compared to uniform refinement and traditional adjoint-based approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1973

Can the ionosphere regulate magnetospheric convection.

A simple model is outlined that relates the dayside magnetopause displacement to the currents feeding the polar cap ionosphere, from which the ionospheric electric field and the flux return rate may be estimated as a function of magnetopause displacement. Then, flux conservation arguments make possible an estimate of the time scale on which convection increases.

Coroniti, F. V.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Determination of aerodynamic parameters of a fighter airplane from flight data at high angles of attack

A procedure for the estimation of airplane model structure and parameters is applied to data from a modern fighter airplane operating within an angle of attack range of 5 to 60 deg. The paper briefly describes the airplane, flight and wind tunnel data available, and the estimation method. The results presented contain basic longitudinal characteristics of the airplane and the estimates of aerodynamic parameters in the yawing-moment equations. These estimates are obtained from small and large amplitude maneuvers. Because the latter set of data was not suitable for airplane identification, some of the large amplitude maneuvers were joined together and then partitioned into subsets according to the values of angle of attack. Each subset was then analyzed as a separate data set. Most of the estimated parameters and functions are in good agreement with the wind tunnel measurements. The estimated lateral parameters in the model equations also demonstrate good prediction capabilities.

Klein, V.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learning the generating functional for variance reduction in lattice QCD

The generating functional in quantum field theory provides the natural framework for constructing correlation functions as derivatives with respect to source operators. We present a methodology that leverages machine-learned normalizing flows to reduce the variance of arbitrary $N$-point correlation functions of bosonic operators in lattice gauge field theory calculations by encoding a representation of the generating functional. We show that it is possible to systematically approach noiseless estimators of correlation functions in this framework. We demonstrate this methodology with applications to calculations of glueball correlation functions and Wilson loops in Quantum Chromodynamics and Yang-Mills theory. The results show up to three orders of magnitude variance reduction.

Abbott, Ryan [Columbia U.] (ORCID:0000000258778005↗

DOE OSTI2018

Regression-Based Analytics for Response Dynamics of SDN Solutions and Components

We consider Software-Defined Network (SDN) solutions that dynamically setup and teardown connections, and also their response dynamics of connectivity and TCP throughput. There is a wide variety of choices for controllers, switches, andsoftware modules, and objective analytics of measurements are needed to compare the response dynamics of solutions based on their combinations. Throughput and ping measurements during connection changes contain significant statistical variations due to the complexities of controllers, northbound scripts, and network devices. We propose analytical methods to estimate response regression functions, which provide a rigorous and objective comparison of different SDN solutions and their components, namely, controllers, switches, and OpenFlow versions. We apply this approach in two scenarios: (a) switching of long-haul connections emulated in hardware by ANUE devices over a testbed consisting of HP and Cisco switches, and (b) multi-site science infrastructure emulated using VMs and Mininet. The results provide useful practical insights including: (i) the dpctl method responds seconds faster than the OpenDayLight (ODL) method on average under OpenFlow 1.0, but performs similar to ODL under OpenFlow 1.3, and (ii) the ping response of dpctl is about 0.6 sec faster than ODL for the second scenario.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1973

An empirical Bayes approach for the Poisson life distribution.

A smooth empirical Bayes estimator is derived for the intensity parameter (hazard rate) in the Poisson distribution as used in life testing. The reliability function is also estimated either by using the empirical Bayes estimate of the parameter, or by obtaining the expectation of the reliability function. The behavior of the empirical Bayes procedure is studied through Monte Carlo simulation in which estimates of mean-squared errors of the empirical Bayes estimators are compared with those of conventional estimators such as minimum variance unbiased or maximum likelihood. Results indicate a significant reduction in mean-squared error of the empirical Bayes estimators over the conventional variety.

Canavos, G. C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bootstrap estimation of the effect of instrument response function uncertainty on the reconstruction of fusion neutron sources

Neutron imagers are important diagnostics for the inertial confinement fusion implosions at the National Ignition Facility. They provide two- and three-dimensional reconstructions of the neutron source shape that are key indicators of the overall performance. To interpret the shape results properly, it is critical to estimate the uncertainty in those reconstructions. There are two main sources of uncertainties: limited neutron statistics, leading to random errors in the reconstructed images, and incomplete knowledge of the instrument response function (the pinhole-dependent point spread function). While the statistical errors dominate the uncertainty for lower yield deuterium-tritium (DT) shots, errors due to the instrument response function dominate the uncertainty for DT yields on the order of 10 16 neutrons or higher. In this work, a bootstrapping method estimates the uncertainty in a reconstructed image due to the incomplete knowledge of the instrument response function. The main reconstruction is created from the fixed collection of pinhole images that are best aligned with the neutron source. Additional reconstructions are then built using subsets of that collection of images. Variations in the shapes of these additional reconstructions originate solely from uncertainties in the instrument response function, allowing us to use them to provide an additional systematic uncertainty estimate.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1989

Ginzburg-Landau theory for the solid-liquid interface of bcc elements. II - Application to the classical one-component plasma, the Wigner crystal, and He-4

The previously developed Ginzburg-Landau theory for calculating the crystal-melt interfacial tension of bcc elements to treat the classical one-component plasma (OCP), the charged fermion system, and the Bose crystal. For the OCP, a direct application of the theory of Shih et al. (1987) yields for the surface tension 0.0012(Z-squared e-squared/a-cubed), where Ze is the ionic charge and a is the radius of the ionic sphere. Bose crystal-melt interface is treated by a quantum extension of the classical density-functional theory, using the Feynman formalism to estimate the relevant correlation functions. The theory is applied to the metastable He-4 solid-superfluid interface at T = 0, with a resulting surface tension of 0.085 erg/sq cm, in reasonable agreement with the value extrapolated from the measured surface tension of the bcc solid in the range 1.46-1.76 K. These results suggest that the density-functional approach is a satisfactory mean-field theory for estimating the equilibrium properties of liquid-solid interfaces, given knowledge of the uniform phases.

Zeng, X. C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Constructing auxiliary dynamics for nonequilibrium stationary states by variance minimization

We present a strategy to construct guiding distribution functions (GDFs) based on variance minimization. Auxiliary dynamics via GDFs mitigates the exponential growth of variance as a function of bias in Monte Carlo estimators of large deviation functions. The variance minimization technique exploits the exact properties of eigenstates of the tilted operator that defines the biased dynamics in the nonequilibrium system. We demonstrate our techniques in two classes of problems. In the continuum, we show that GDFs can be optimized to study the interacting driven diffusive systems where the efficiency is systematically improved by incorporating higher correlations into the GDF. On the lattice, we use a correlator product state ansatz to study the 1D weakly asymmetric simple exclusion process. We show that with modest resources, we can capture the features of the susceptibility in large systems that mark the phase transition from uniform transport to a traveling wave state. Our work extends the repertoire of tools available to study nonequilibrium properties in realistic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization and Analysis of the Energy-Reporting Accuracy of Connected Devices

Emerging energy-efficient building systems increasingly exhibit greater functionality, often requiring multiple operating modes (e.g. white-tunability for lighting products and data traffic for devices with networked, integrated sensors). This increased functionality makes energy consumption estimates more complex. Given that these functions consume energy, the energy performance of such building systems is dependent on what operating modes they use and how much time they spend in each mode. Devices and systems that can report their own energy consumption mitigate this energy-performance uncertainty. This study explores the energy-reporting accuracy of market-available connected electrical outlets. The study considers two residential-market products (five units each, one outlet per unit) and three commercial-market products (two units each, 18 to 24 outlets per unit) with the ability to report power drawn and/or energy consumed by devices connected to their receptacles. The products were purchased through typical market channels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted testing in December 2018 at its Connected Lighting Test Bed (CLTB), using a custom-developed test setup and method adapted from industry standards. The setup collected energy-consumption data reported by the outlet devices under test (DUTs) at one-minute intervals and compared that data with measurements taken by a reference meter over a range of test conditions. The residential products reported power draw but not interval or cumulative energy consumption. The commercial products reported both power draw and cumulative energy consumption. Relative reporting error (RRE) was calculated for all measurements, and analysis of the results revealed variations across devices and test conditions. The total number of measurements (50 for each residential product, 60 for each commercial product) offers an appreciable comparison of performance at the make/model level. The average RRE of the residential products derived from reported power draw was -0.02% and -1.20%. The average RRE for two of the three the commercial products derived from reported power draw was worse than those of the residential products (-2.40%, -2.72%, -0.36%). The internal integration of power over time, used to calculate cumulative energy consumption, typically occurs at current and voltage sampling rates much higher than once per minute. This suggests that the average commercial-product RRE derived from reported energy consumption should be very consistent and better than performance based on reported power draw. However, the RRE derived from reported energy consumption varied significantly across the three makes of commercial-market products and was uniformly less accurate than performance based on reported power draw. Subsequent analysis identified a number of root causes for this decrease in performance, most of which were related to reporting resolution. The goals of this study are to generate awareness of building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption, further interest in the value of energy data for a variety of uses, draw attention to how the accuracy of reported metrics can be characterized, and quantify the performance variation found in marketavailable products. The results of this study and subsequent related work may be relevant to stakeholders in industry-specification and standards-development organizations. The methods this study employs could inform test and measurement procedures and performance classifications for connected outlets, lighting products, and other building systems capable of reporting their own energy consumption. The study concludes with stakeholder recommendations, including the following: • Energy-reporting device and system manufacturers developing products that report energy consumption should characterize the accuracy of reported metrics using a reference meter calibrated by an independent laboratory that was accredited by an ILAC MRA signatory (and whose scope of accreditation explicitly covers energy measurement), and should include this information on product data sheets. • Standards and specification development organizations should develop application-specific performance classifications that end users can understand and relate to their energy-data use needs (e.g., 2% accuracy class for utility streetlight energy billing needs, or 10% accuracy class for ESCO performance verification needs). • Current or potential owners, operators, and specifiers of energy-reporting building systems should rigorously analyze the dependency of current and planned energy-data use cases on accuracy, noting in particular the dependence (or lack thereof) on relative vs. absolute accuracy, and on trueness vs. precision (i.e., repeatability), and should communicate use-case needs to industry standards and specification organizations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1976

Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

Scott, D. W.↗