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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1976

The evolution of cumulonimbus systems in relation to low-level thermally-driven mesoscale systems

The importance of extra-storm scale mesoscale systems to the genesis and propagation of cumulonimbus systems is discussed, with the primary role of the mesoscale systems viewed as the initiator of cumulonimbus convection. It is demonstrated that thermally driven mesoscale systems such as the Florida sea breeze and Colorado ridge/valley circulations play an important role in the genesis, organization, and intensity of cumulonimbus systems. In the case of the Colorado ridge/valley circulation, however, the importance of the circulation to the genesis and propagation of severe storm systems over the Western Great Plains still remains to be demonstrated.

Cotton, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Meso-beta scale numerical simulation studies of terrain-induced jet streak mass and momentum perturbations

An in-depth analysis of observed gravity waves and their relationship to precipitation bands over the Montana mesonetwork during the 11-12 July 1981 CCOPE case study indicated two episodes of coherent waves. While geostrophic adjustment, shearing instability, and terrain were all implicated separately or in combination as possible wave generation mechanisms, the lack of upper-air data within the wave genesis region made it difficult to define the genesis processes from observations alone. The first part of this paper, 3D Numerical Modeling Studies of Terrain-Induced Mass/Momentum Perturbations, employs a mesoscale numerical model to help diagnose the intricate early wave generation mechanisms during the first observed gravity wave episode. The meso-beta scale numerical model is used to study various simulations of the role of multiple geostrophic adjustment processes in focusing a region for gravity wave genesis. The second part of this paper, Linear Theory and Theoretical Modeling, investigates the response of non-resting rotating homogeneous and continuously stratified Boussinesq models of the terrestrial atmosphere to temporally impulsive and uniformly propagating three-dimensional localized zonal momentum sources representative of midlatitude jet streaks. The methods of linear perturbation theory applied to the potential vorticity (PV) and wave field equations are used to study the geostrophic adjustment dynamics. The total zonal and meridional wind perturbations are separated into geostrophic and ageostrophic components in order to define and follow the evolution of both the primary and secondary mesocirculations accompanying midlatitude jetogenesis forced by geostrophic adjustment processes. This problem is addressed to help fill the gap in understanding the dynamics and structure of mesoscale inertia-gravity waves forced by geostrophic adjustment processes in simple two-dimensional quiescent current systems and those produced by mesoscale numerical models simulating the orographic and diabatic perturbation of three-dimensional quasi-geostrophically balanced synoptic scale jet streaks associated with complex baroclinic severe storm producing environments.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗
NASA NTRS2007

Measurement of Damage Profiles from Solar Wind Implantation

NASA's Genesis Mission launched from Cape Canaveral in August of 2001 with the goal of collecting solar wind in ultra-pure materials. The samples were returned to Earth more than three years later for subsequent analysis. Although the solar wind is comprised primarily of protons, it also contains ionized species representing the entire periodic table. The Genesis mission took advantage of the natural momentum of these ionized species to implant themselves in specialized collectors including single crystal Si and SiC. The collectors trapped the solar wind species of interest and sustained significant damage to the surface crystal structure as a result of the ion bombardment. In this work, spectroscopic ellipsometry has been used to evaluate the extent of this damage in Si and SiC samples. These results and models are compared for artificially implanted samples and pristine non-flight material. In addition, the flown samples had accumulated a thin film of molecular contamination as a result of outgassing in flight, and we demonstrate that this layer can be differentiated from the material damage. In addition to collecting bulk solar wind samples (continuous exposure), the Genesis mission actually returned silicon exposed to four different solar wind regimes: bulk, high speed, low speed, and coronal mass ejections. Each of these solar wind regimes varies in energy, but may vary in composition as well. While determining the composition is a primary goal of the mission, we are also interested in the variation in depth and extent of the damage layer as a function of solar wind regime. Here, we examine flight Si from the bulk solar wind regime and compare the results to both pristine and artificially implanted Si. Finally, there were four samples which were mounted in an electrostatic "concentrator" designed to reject a large fraction (>85%) of incoming protons while enhancing the concentration of ions mass 4-28 amu by a factor of at least 20. Two of these samples were single crystal 6H silicon carbide. (The others were polycrystalline CVD diamond and amorphous carbon that were not examined in the work.) The ion damaged SiC samples from the concentrator were studied in comparison to the flight Si from the bulk array to understand differences in the extent of the damage.

McNamara, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

X-Band Radar for Studies of Tropical Storms from High Altitude UAV Platform

The increased role of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in NASA's suborbital program has created a strong interest in the development of instruments with new capabilities, more compact sizes and reduced weights than the instruments currently operated on manned aircrafts. There is a strong demand and tremendous potential for using high altitude UAV (HUAV) to carry weather radars for measurements of reflectivity and wind fields from tropical storms. Tropical storm genesis frequently occurs in ocean regions that are inaccessible to piloted aircraft due to the long off shore range and the required periods of time to gather significant data. Important factors of interest for the study of hurricane genesis include surface winds, profiled winds, sea surface temperatures, precipitation, and boundary layer conditions. Current satellite precipitation and surface wind sensors have resolutions that are too large and revisit times that are too infrequent to study this problem. Furthermore, none of the spaceborne sensors measure winds within the storm itself. A dual beam X-band Doppler radar, UAV Radar (URAD), is under development at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for the study of tropical storms from HUAV platforms, such as a Global Hawk. X-band is the most desirable frequency for airborne weather radars since these can be built in a relatively compact size using off-the-shelf components which cost significantly less than other higher frequency radars. Furthermore, X-band radars provide good sensitivity with tolerable attenuation in storms. The low-cost and light-weight URAD will provide new capabilities for studying hurricane genesis by analyzing the vertical structure of tropical cyclones as well as 3D reflectivity and wind fields in clouds. It will enable us to measure both the 3D precipitation structure and surface winds by using two antenna beams: fixed nadir and conical scanning each produced by its associated subsystem. The nadir subsystem is a magnetron based radar modified from a marine radar transceiver. It is capable of measuring vertical reflectivity and velocity profile while being a lower-cost, smaller size, and lighter weight version of the NASA ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP), which has flown during many NASA field campaigns and has provided valuable scientific information on hurricanes and weather phenomena. Unfortunately, EDOP is too large and heavy for most UAV platforms, but the experience gained with this instrument provided us with the heritage to build a new low-cost, light-weight, smaller system that will be capable of flying on UAVs. The scanning subsystem uses a TWT transmitter and provides measurements of 3D reflectivity/wind fields in-clouds. Conical scanning of the radar beam at a 35 deg. incidence angle will also provide information of surface wind speed and direction derived from the surface return over a single 360 deg. sweep. URAD data system will be Linux based with the capability of autonomous operation. It will utilize cutting edge digital receiver and FPGA technologies to carry out the data acquisition and processing tasks. High speed navigation data from the aircraft will also be captured and saved along with radar data for 3D measurement field reconstruction and aircraft motion correction. There is a tremendous potential for UAVs to carry down-looking weather radars for measurements of reflectivity, horizontal and vertical winds from tropical storms. With operation from HUAV platforms, the dual beam X-band radar under development promises to provide greatly needed information for tropical storm research.

Rodriquez, Shannon↗
NASA NTRS2010

Sample Return: What Happens to the Samples on Earth?

As space agencies throughout the world turn their attention toward human exploration of the Moon, Mars, and the solar system beyond, there has been an increase in the number of robotic sample return missions proposed as precursors to these human endeavors. In reality, however, we, as a global community, have very little experience with robotic sample return missions: 3 of the Russian Luna Missions successfully returned lunar material in the 1970s; 28 years later, in 2004, NASA s Genesis Mission returned material from the solar wind; and in 2006, NASA s Stardust Mission returned material from the Comet Wild2. [Note: The Japanese Hyabusa mission continues in space with the hope of returning material from the asteroid 25143 Itokawa.] We launch many spacecraft to LEO and return them to Earth. We also launch spacecraft beyond LEO to explore the planets, our solar system, and beyond. Some even land on these bodies. But these do not return. So as we begin to contemplate the sample return missions of the future, some common questions arise: "What really happens when the capsule returns?" "Where does it land?" "Who retrieves it and just how do they do that?" "Where does it go after that?" "How do the scientists get the samples?" "Do they keep them?" "Who is in charge?" The questions are nearly endless. The goal of this paper/presentation is to uncover many of the mysteries of the post-return phase of a mission - from the time the return body enters the atmosphere until the mission ends and the samples become part of a long term collection. The discussion will be based largely on the author s own experience with both the Genesis and Stardust missions. Of course, these two missions have a great deal in common, being funded by the same NASA Program (Discovery) and having similar team composition. The intent, however, is to use these missions as examples in order to highlight the general requirements and the challenges in defining and meeting those requirements for the final phase of sample return missions. The choices made by the Genesis and Stardust teams regarding recovery and sample handling will be discussed. These will be compared with the handling of returned lunar samples and the proposed handling of the Hyabusa samples as well. Finally, though none of these recent missions have been restricted within NASA s Planetary Protection Protocol, this is likely to change as missions venture farther from Earth. The implementation of Planetary Protection requirements will vary significantly based on mission scenario, however some of the potential implications of restricted Earth return will be considered.

McNamara, Karen↗
NASA NTRS2009

Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific

The direct influences of equatorial waves on the genesis of tropical cyclones are evaluated. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. For an attribution threshold of 3 mm/day, 51% of warm season western North Pacific tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances, 29% to equatorial Rossby waves, 26% to mixed Rossby-Gravity waves, 23% to Kelvin waves, 13% to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and 19% are not attributed to any equatorial wave. The fraction of tropical cyclones attributed to TD-type disturbances is consistent with previous findings. Past studies have also demonstrated that the MJO significantly modulates tropical cyclogenesis, but fewer storms are attributed to the MJO than any other wave type. This disparity arises from the difference between attribution and modulation. The MJO produces broad regions of favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, but the MJO alone might not determine when and where a storm will develop within these regions. Tropical cyclones contribute less than 17% of the power in any portion of the equatorial wave spectrum because tropical cyclones are relatively uncommon equatorward of 15deg latitude. In regions where they are active, however, tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20% of the warm season rainfall and up to 50% of the total variance. Tropical cyclone-related anomalies can significantly contaminate wave-filtered precipitation at the location of genesis. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Schreck, Carl J., III↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

Yonekura, Emmi↗
NASA NTRS2013

Application of CO2 Snow Jet Cleaning in Conjunction with Laboratory Based Total Reflection X-Ray Fluorescence

The Genesis mission was the first mission returning solar material to Earth since the Apollo program [1,2]. Unfortunately the return of the space craft on September 8, 2004 resulted in a crash landing, which shattered the samples into small fragments and exposed them to desert soil and other debris. Thus only small fragments of the original collectors are available, each having different degrees of surface contamination. Thorough surface cleaning is required to allow for subsequent analysis of solar wind material embedded within. An initial cleaning procedure was developed in coordination with Johnson Space Center which focused on removing larger sized particulates and a thin film organic contamination acquired during collection in space [3]. However, many of the samples have additional residues and more rigorous and/or innovative cleaning steps might be necessary. These cleaning steps must affect only the surface to avoid leaching and re-distribution of solar wind material from the bulk of the collectors. To aid in development and identification of the most appropriate cleaning procedures each sample has to be thoroughly inspected before and after each cleaning step. Laboratory based total reflection X-ray fluorescence (TXRF) spectrometry lends itself to this task as it is a non-destructive and surface sensitive analytical method permitting analysis of elements from aluminum onward present at and near the surface of a flat substrate [4]. The suitability of TXRF has been demonstrated for several Genesis solar wind samples before and after various cleaning methods including acid treatment, gas cluster ion beam, and CO2 snow jet [5 - 7]. The latter one is non-invasive and did show some promise on one sample [5]. To investigate the feasibility of CO2 snow jet cleaning further, several flown Genesis samples were selected to be characterized before and after CO2 snow application with sample 61052 being discussed below.

Schmeling, M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Does Collection Time Bias the Ecology of Cleanroom Air Samples?

Microbial monitoring of astromaterials collections has taken on increased importance with the return of biologically sensitive samples from the asteroids Ryugu and Bennu and the initiation of the Mars Sample Return Program. Terrestrial bacteria and fungi can alter the mineralogy and organic composition of our collections causing irreversible contamination of pristine samples and increasing the risk of false positives for life detection measurements. NASA has conducted routine microbial monitoring of its existing collections since 20181. Initial monitoring focused on surface samples collected with foam swabs. Although, airborne microbiology is often decoupled from surface microbiology in the built environment2 culture-based air sampling techniques like impactors were not compliant with existing contamination control requirements. Bringing organic rich media, gelatin or liquids into curation cleanrooms presents an unacceptable risk to pristine samples. In 2022 NASA purchased a materials complaint air sampler and began collecting air samples from the cleanrooms in addition to surface samples3. The new instrument uses an electret filter to collect samples that are suitable for cultivating organisms or for direct DNA sequencing. Preliminary DNA sequencing results appeared to indicate that longer sampling times biased the microbial community in favor of hearty, spore-forming bacteria3. We present the results of a study comparing overnight sampling (17 hours) to short (1 hour) sampling of unoccupied curation cleanrooms. The results will help us optimize our monitoring protocols and develop a more detailed inventory of the ecology of astromaterials curation cleanrooms. Methods: We analyzed 72 paired air samples from six different cleanrooms including the meteorite processing lab (ISO 7 equivalent, 16 samples), the lunar lab (ISO 6 equivalent, 10 samples), the stardust lab (ISO 5 equivalent 14 samples), the OSIRIS-REx lab (ISO 5 equivalent, 12 samples), the Hayabusa2 lab (ISO 5 equivalent, 14 samples), and the Genesis lab (ISO 4 equivalent, 6 samples). All the samples were collected with an InnovaPrep Bobcat air sampler operating at a sampling rate of 200 L/min. The sampler operates for 5 minutes out of every 20 minute period. Half of the samples were collected by filtering 3,000L (15 min. of active sampling) of air across an electret filter for one hour. The rest of the samples were collected by filtering approximately 51,000 L air across the filter overnight (~17 hours, 255 min. of active sampling). Cells were eluted from the filter using 6-7 ml of pressurized 0.15% tween 20 in PBS (phosphate buffered saline). This liquid was used to cultivate bacteria according to previously published methods1,4,5 and for DNA extraction and next generation sequencing. DNA was extracted with a Qiagen MagAttract PowerMicrobiome kit6. To identify bacteria and archaea, the 16S rRNA gene was amplified using Earth Microbiome primers for the V4 region 7. The amplified DNA was sequenced on an Illumina MiSeq using a V3 reagent kit. The resulting sequences were processed using DADA2 and QIIME2 as implemented on the EDGE bioinformatics platform8–10. Results: Only two of the 72 samples had no amplifiable DNA. Amplified DNA concentrations ranged from 2.67 – 0.272 ng/µl. The median concentration of amplified DNA for the 1 hour samples was 0.770 ± 0.368 ng/µl. The median concentration of amplified DNA for the overnight samples was 0.877 ± 0.434 ng/µl. On average the overnight samples had slightly more sequences (58,960 vs. 59,456) and ASV’s (amplicon sequence variants) (60 vs 64.5) than the one hour samples, but these differences are not statistically significant. The most abundant ASV in every sample mapped to the genus Cupravidus. ASV’s mapping to the genuses Bacillus, Schlegelella, Thermus, and Staphylococcus were also common. Discussion and Future Work: Alpha diversity statistics like Shannon Entropy and Faith Phylogenetic Diversity are used to describe the diversity of organisms in a single sample. If a longer sampling time was biasing the data, we would expect to see a change in these diversity statistics vs. sample time. However, we did not observe this in our data. The median Shannon entropy was slightly higher for the overnight samples (3.773 vs 3.611) as was the Faith Phylogenetic Diversity (4.042 vs 3.596), but both values were within a standard deviation of each other for the two sampling times (Fig. 1). It is unlikely, that the longer sampling time is introducing bias into our data. We do observe a significant decrease in diversity when comparing the air samples by lab. The Genesis lab (ISO 4 equivalent) has a lower median number of ASV’s (45.5) than the other labs (62). Median values for Shannon Entropy (3.717 vs. 3.430) and Faith Phylogenetic Diversity (3.796 vs. 3.548) are also lower for Genesis, but those values are with one standard deviation of each other for the different sampling times. This is consistent with previous culture-based results suggesting that the environment in cleanrooms tends to select for a core group of organisms capable of surviving under dry, low nutrient, conditions. The presence of the ASV’s mapping to Cupravidus and Thermus in our sequencing blanks and controls suggests that several of the most common organisms in our samples represent contaminants from the reagents used to perform the DNA extractions and sequencing. Further work is needed to identify these contaminants, remove them from our data and recalculate the diversity statistics. This is a systematic error. Therefore, we do not expect removing the sequencing contaminants to change our conclusions. Longer air sample collection times appear to result in slightly higher diversity and do not bias the results towards “hardy” bacteria like spore-formers. Based on these preliminary results we conclude that sampling at least 3,000 liters of air is sufficient to capture the microbial diversity of cleanrooms, and that air samples can also be collected overnight without negatively impacting diversity. These results allow us to be flexible when designing microbial monitoring plans so that they do not interfere with routine lab activity. References: 1. Regberg, A. B. et al. 49th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2018). 2. The United States Pharmacopeial Convention. USP General Chapter <1116> (2013). 3. Regberg, A. B., et al. 54th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2023). 4. Regberg, A. B. et al. 53rd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference ( 2022). 5. Davis, R. E.,et al. 50th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2019). 6. Qiagen. MagAttract® PowerMicrobiome® DNA/RNA EP Kit Handbook. (2018). 7. Walters, W. et al. mSystems 1, (2015). 8. Callahan, B. J. et al. Nat. Methods 13, 581–583 (2016). 9. Hall, M. & Beiko, R. G. Microbiome Analysis: Methods and Protocols113–129 (Springer, 2018). 10. Philipson, C. et al. Bio-Protoc. 7, e2622 (2017).

A. B. Regberg↗
NASA NTRS2024

End-to-End Mission Design & Trajectory Optimization

Need: A need exists for a generalized, robust, user-friendly and accessible end-to-end mission design optimization tool. Solution: Our solution to developing this capability was to interface two JSC tools—Copernicus and Genesis. Each of these tools has a specific area of the mission design process that it excels at. By utilizing them both, we can gain performance benefits not seen by either on their own. - Copernicus is a trajectory design and optimization software used for in-space trajectories around multiple bodies. - Genesis is a flight mechanics tool used to model ascent, entry, descent, and landing trajectories around a single planetary body. Year 1 was focused on combining these 2 software packages—allowing Copernicus to incorporate the ascent/descent capabilities of Genesis into the optimization problem—and developing this end-to-end mission design capability. Year 2 we focused on increasing the robustness of this capability by building the initial guess generator (IGG), which produces initial guesses based on simplifying assumptions and the physics of the problem. Year 3 of our project focused on utilizing the end-to-end mission design and optimization capabilities developed in the previous 2 years to analyze specific mission scenarios—scaling up from proof of concept to real analyses—capturing any resulting performance benefits, as well as addressing the Big Data challenges we’re faced with—namely, how we’re going to manage and interpret all the data that’s generated.

Kristin Nichols↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles

African easterly waves (AEWs) are an important precursor or “seed” for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), with 60%–80% of major hurricanes observed to originate from AEWs. However, climate model simulations indicate that AEWs are not necessary to maintain annual Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, small ensembles suggest that AEWs may impact the spatial distribution and landfall of Atlantic TCs. Here, we investigated the influence of AEWs on the spatial distribution of Atlantic TC tracks and landfall using 50-member ensembles of TC-permitting regional model simulations for five hurricane seasons characterized by different levels of TC activity. The control simulations are seasonal hindcasts in which AEWs were prescribed through the eastern lateral boundary condition using reanalysis. In the experiments, we suppressed AEWs by applying a 2–10 day filter to the eastern lateral boundary condition. In response to AEW suppression, we discovered statistically significant increases in Atlantic TC frequency (10%–26%) and landfall (16%–44%), a westward shift in TC genesis location and tracks with increased landfall over the Caribbean Islands, southwestern Gulf Coast, and southeastern US coast, and increases in mid-tropospheric relative humidity in the main development region. In addition, we evaluated TC genesis mechanisms in the absence of AEWs and found evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) intensified and extended northward, resulting in ITCZ wave-breaking that shed vortices which served as TC seeds. By uncovering the connections between TC seed types and the likelihood of TC landfall, this research can provide Atlantic coastal and island communities with useful information to prepare for TC impacts.

African easterly waves↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regional MJO Modulation of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Driven by Multiple Transient Controls

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is widely acknowledged for its ability to modulate Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs), but a complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms remains uncertain. Beyond established effects of the MJO's relative humidity envelope, other dynamical factors have recently been invoked via new genesis potential indices and high-resolution modeling studies. Here we revisit the ability of the MJO to modulate West Pacific TCs through a quasi-explicit cyclone downscaling strategy driven by composited observations, paired later with a genesis index to investigate regional drivers of modulation. In this work, we reveal two distinct spatial modes of TC modulation in which the MJO's dynamic and thermodynamic effects act in tandem to increase TCs. In the South China Sea, for instance, shear reductions associated with the MJO's circulation lead to increasing potential intensity ahead of the arrival of a positive humidity anomaly, all of which combine for an extended period of cyclogenesis favorability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Examination of Global Midlatitude Atmospheric River Lifecycles Using an Object-Oriented Methodology

Tracking atmospheric rivers (ARs) across their lifecycles is a field of recent interest with a multitude of emerging methodologies. The CONNected-objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is adapted for the tracking of global midlatitude AR lifecycles and associated precipitation by implementing a seeded region growing segmentation algorithm, creating the AR-CONNECT algorithm. To facilitate the permissiveness of the methodology, AR-CONNECT is without hard-coded geometric criteria yet is still shown to extract synoptic-scale elongated objects >99.99% of the time. One of the consequences of the methodology is the ability to occasionally track atmospheric water vapor anomalies before evolving into AR geometries, effectively tracking AR genesis further back than other studies. With the aid of subdaily satellite-derived rain data, we investigate the climatology, trends, and patterns of AR lifecycles from 1983–2016 and compare with other AR tracking studies. We find that AR frequency, genesis, and terminus locations are in generally good agreement with other AR tracking methodologies, though with key differences, and that AR frequencies in each hemisphere are determined by the number of AR hotspots. Furthermore, we uncover evidence that certain AR characteristics, such as frequency, areal extent, and duration, show evidence of increasing trends. Midlatitude precipitation uncovered by AR-CONNECT shows contributions up to 50% over land and 65% over the ocean. Trend analysis of AR precipitation shows an increase in precipitation associated with ARs propagated by the Southern Jet Stream and ARs that traverse over the Sahara Desert, among others, but is determined not to be a driver of changes in global precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global warming. Arguments based on global budgets of heat or moisture do not yet appear helpful, nor does a detailed understanding of the physical processes of TC genesis. Empirical indices that predict TC frequency as a function of large‐scale environmental variables can explain some of its relative variations in space and time, but not its absolute value. Global numerical models with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 25–50 km have allowed much improved simulations of TC activity, however. Many such models project a decrease in frequency with warming, but some project an increase. Idealized simulations, including those at higher resolutions, offer promise by allowing a systematic, deductive investigation of the roles of individual environmental factors. In addition to the larger‐scale environmental modulation of genesis likelihood, precursor disturbances, or “seeds”, may exert an independent influence on TC frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Observed ENSO‐Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection

Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a skillful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in most TC basins. This study examines recent changes in the observed ENSO‐TC teleconnection strength, as measured by ENSO modulation of hurricane frequency. We find that the ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection fluctuated over time, with the strongest relationship occurring from the 1980s to the mid‐2000s. In the western and eastern North Pacific, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection has strengthened in recent decades. Periods with a strong ENSO‐TC teleconnection are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, with higher values of genesis potential indices. Positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation coincided with periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins. A weaker Atlantic ENSO‐TC relationship was associated with negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. This research reveals climate conditions that modulate ENSO's utility for seasonal TC prediction. Plain Language Summary El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a useful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in many basins. Here we found that the strength of the ENSO‐TC teleconnection, represented as the correlation between ENSO and the number of hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy, has changed in the historical record. The ENSO‐TC teleconnection in the North Atlantic fluctuated over time, with a weak relationship during the 1960s and 1970s and a strong relationship during the 1980s to mid‐2000s. Meanwhile, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection strengthened in the North Pacific in recent decades, with strong teleconnections after the 1980s in the western North Pacific and after the 2000s in the eastern North Pacific. Periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, including higher values of genesis potential indices and higher mid‐tropospheric humidity, as well as positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Additionally, the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation leads to strong/weak ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Furthermore, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation is associated with a weak ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection. This research highlights variations in ENSO's effectiveness for seasonal TC prediction. Key Points The observed impact of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) activity exhibits multidecadal fluctuations The ENSO‐TC teleconnection was strong in the Atlantic from the 1980s to mid‐2000s and strengthened over the North Pacific in recent decades The ENSO‐TC teleconnection is stronger in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins during a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

ENSO↗