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DOE OSTI2026

Accelerating Discovery to Deployment: Argonne's Materials Engineering Research Facility (MERF) and Its Role in Scaling Materials Technologies for Water and Resource Solutions

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories represent a unique class of government‐owned, contractor‐operated research institutions dedicated to conducting research and development (R&D) related activities that address national priorities, supporting and advancing the DOE mission. They play a vital role in sustaining U.S. innovation capacity, stewarding the nation's technical base, and nurturing science and technologies. In this perspective, we highlight the processing science and scaleup capabilities of the Materials Engineering Research Facility (MERF) at DOE's Argonne National Laboratory to demonstrate how DOE National Laboratories bridge fundamental science and applied technology development to accelerate deployment. Case studies are presented on selective membranes for critical mineral recovery, sensors for per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) detection, surface functionalization via atomic layer deposition (ALD) and sequential infiltration synthesis (SIS), and lithium recovery from battery recycling waste streams using a novel electrodialysis process. These examples underscore MERF's role in translating innovative technologies into practical solutions for renewable water and critical resource recovery, which also leverage Argonne's analytical and computational capabilities. This perspective also outlines mechanisms for collaborating with the DOE national laboratories to strengthen partnerships across government, the national laboratories, academia, and industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Heterogeneous Solid Electrolyte Interphase Interactions Dictate Interface Instability in Sodium Metal Electrodes

Sodium (Na) metal batteries have attracted recent attention due to their low cost and high abundance of Na. However, the advancement of Na metal batteries is impeded due to key challenges such as dendrite growth, solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) fracture, and low Coulombic efficiency. This study examines the coupled electro‐chemo‐mechanical interactions governing the electrodeposition stability and morphological evolution at the Na/electrolyte interface. The SEI heterogeneities influence transport and reaction kinetics leading to the formation of current and stress hotspots during Na plating. Further, it is demonstrated that the heterogeneity‐induced Na metal evolution and its influence on the stress distribution critically affect the mechanical overpotential, contributing to a faster SEI failure. The analysis reveals three distinct failure mechanisms—mechanical, transport, and kinetic—that govern the onset of instabilities at the interface. Finally, a comprehensive comparative study of SEI failure in Na and lithium (Li) metal anodes illustrates that the electrochemical and mechanical characteristics of the SEI are crucial in tailoring the anode morphology and interface stability. This work delineates mechanistic stability regimes cognizant of the SEI attributes and underlying failure modes and offers important guidelines for the design of artificial SEI layers for stable Na metal electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Aromatic Amide Foldamers Show Conformation‐Dependent Electronic Properties

Electron transport in organic molecules and biomolecules is governed by electronic structure and molecular conformations. Despite recent progress, key challenges remain in understanding the role of intramolecular interactions and three-dimensional (3D) conformations on the electron transport behavior of organic molecules. In this work, the electronic properties of aromatic amide foldamers are characterized that organize into distinct 3D structures, including an extended secondary amide that adopts a trans-conformation and a folded N-methylated tertiary amide that adopts a cis-conformation. Results from single-molecule electronic experiments show that the extended secondary amide exhibits a fourfold enhancement in molecular conductance compared to the folded N-methylated tertiary amide, despite a longer contour length. The results show that extended amide molecules are governed by a through-bond electron transport mechanism, whereas folded amide molecules are dominated by through-space transport. Bulk spectroscopic characterization and density functional theory calculations further reveal that extended amides have a smaller HOMO–LUMO gap and larger transmission values compared to folded amides, consistent with single-molecule electronic experiments. Overall, this work shows that 3D molecular conformations significantly influence the electronic properties of single-molecule junctions.

electron transport↗

DOE OSTI2023

Highly Coupled Heterobicycle‐Fused Porphyrin Dimers: Excitonic Coupling and Charge Separation with Coordinated Fullerene, C 60

Abstract Porphyrin dimers have been widely explored and studied owing to their importance in photosynthetic systems. A vast variety of dimers linked by different groups and at different angles have been synthesized and studied; however, the means by which to synthesize rigidly fused porphyrins with direct conjugation of the chromophores remains limited. Such a class of porphyrins may possess interesting properties that unconjugated or stacked dimers may not exhibit. In this study, bisbenzimidazole‐fused porphyrin dimers and their mono‐ and bis−zinc derivatives are synthesized and characterized. As a consequence of excitonic coupling, these dimers exhibit a split Soret band irrespective of the metal ion in the porphyrin cavity. Steady‐state fluorescence and excitation spectra followed by femtosecond transient absorption spectral studies of the heterometallated dimer, (free‐base and zinc porphyrin) reveals the occurrence of efficient singlet‐singlet energy transfer (>95 % efficiency and rate constant >10 12 s −1 ) within the dyad. Further, donor‐acceptor conjugates were formed by metal‐ligand axial coordination of phenyl imidazole functionalized C 60 and were characterized by a variety of physicochemical techniques. Excited state charge separation from both singlet and triplet excited states of ZnP in the conjugates has been established. The lifetime of the final charge‐separated state was in the 30–40 μs range revealing charge stabilization. Interestingly, no charge separation in the conjugate derived from the heterometallated dimer was observed wherein excitation transfer dominated the process. The present study brings out the importance of the rigid π‐spacer connecting porphyrin dimers in governing the energy and electron transfer events when coupled with an electron acceptor.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress Towards a Comprehensive Approach for Habitat Restoration in the Columbia Basin: Case Study in the Grande Ronde River

Abstract Despite immense resources directed towards habitat restoration, recovering fish populations remains a daunting and perplexing issue. In 2015, recommendations for a comprehensive approach to habitat restoration in the Columbia River basin were published in Fisheries, which included elements of landscape ecology and resilience, broad public support, governance for collaboration and integration, and capacity for learning and adaptation. Using the Grande Ronde River basin as a case study, we convened a working group consisting of local restoration practitioners, managers, and researchers involved in habitat restoration research, monitoring, and evaluation to assess progress towards meeting these recommendations. We concluded that partnerships and collaborations in governance have been formed and research using a landscape perspective has been integrated into decision making, but efforts would benefit from gaining broader public support, formalizing an adaptive management strategy, and defining objectives and indicators for biological and ecological diversity. Continued progress will require consistent policy and funding support from the broader region. We envision this self-assessment at the 5-year milestone would be helpful to other groups facing similar challenges.

White, Seth M. (ORCID:0000000349186865)↗

DOE OSTI2022

State elimination for mixed‐integer optimal control of partial differential equations by semigroup theory

Abstract Mixed‐integer optimal control problems governed by partial differential equations (MIPDECOs) are powerful modeling tools but also challenging in terms of theory and computation. We propose a highly efficient state elimination approach for MIPDECOs that are governed by partial differential equations that have the structure of an abstract ordinary differential equation in function space. This allows us to avoid repeated calculations of the states for all time steps, and our approach is applied only once before starting the optimization. The presentation of theoretical results is complemented by numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lewis Acid Site Engineering in Chromite Spinels Orchestrated Surface Reconstruction and Surpasses RuO 2 in Oxygen Evolution

Atomic-scale engineering of chromite spinels featuring redox-active tetrahedral A-sites and strong Cr–O covalency offers a promising route to superior platinum-group-metal-free oxygen evolution reaction (OER) catalysts. However, comprehensive studies addressing how cation substitution influences surface chemistry and governs OER activity and durability in chromite spinels remain limited. Here, in this work, a systematic investigation of the multicationic chromite series Ni x Fe y Cr 3−x−y O 4 is presented, identifying composition-dependent Lewis acidity as a descriptor of superior OER performance. It is further demonstrated that tuning surface acidity directly controls dynamic reconstruction processes and lattice-oxygen participation during spinel-based electrocatalysis. Following activation, the optimized Ni 0.8 Fe 0.3 Cr 1.9 O 4 catalyst delivers a current density of 10 mA cm −2 at an overpotential of 235 mV, surpassing RuO 2 , with excellent long-term stability. Integrating microscopic and spectroscopic analysis with operando impedance spectroscopy, it shows that activation generates an oxyhydroxide overlayer and reveals a previously unrecognized link between surface Lewis acidity and the growth kinetics and activity of these shells. Density functional theory calculations indicate that Fe incorporation at octahedral sites raises the O 2p-band center and lowers oxygen-vacancy formation energy, promoting lattice-oxygen activation and triggering reconstruction, yielding enhanced OER. This work integrates cation-driven surface-acidity modulation, acidity-governed reconstruction, and OER activity enhancement into a unified predictive framework for designing earth-abundant spinel-based catalysts.

operando impedance spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Adsorptive Membrane Platform for Precision Ion Separation: Membrane Design and First‐Principles Studies

One of the key challenges in separation science is the lack of precise ion separation methods and mechanistic understanding crucial for efficiently recovering critical materials from complex aqueous matrices. Herein, first-principles electronic structure calculations and in situ Raman spectroscopy are studied to elucidate the factors governing ion discrimination in an adsorptive membrane specifically designed for transition metal ion separation. Density functional theory calculations and in situ Raman data jointly reveal the thermodynamically favorable binding preferences and detailed adsorption mechanisms for competing ions. How membrane binding preferences correlate with the electronic properties of ligands is explored, such as orbital hybridization and electron localization. The findings underscore the importance of the phenolate group in oxime ligands for achieving high selectivity among competing transition metal ions. In-depth understanding on which specific atomistic site within the microenvironment of metal-ligand binding pockets governs the ion discrimination behaviors of the host will build a solid foundation to guide the rational design of next-generation materials for precision separation essential for energy technologies and environment remediation. In tandem, synthetic controllability is demonstrated to transform 3D micrometer-scale crystals to a 2D crystalline selective layer in membranes, paving the way for more precise and sustainable advances in separation science.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Magnesium Technology 2020

Magnesium and its alloys are being investigated widely for applications that require extraordinarily high strength-to-weight ratio, vibration damping, electromagnetic shielding, reduction in carbon footprint, sustainability improvements, and low toxicity. In the past decade or so, this drive has led to increased adoption of magnesium and its alloys in everyday products and it is no longer regarded as an esoteric material. The overarching goal of its widespread adoption and replacement of conventional materials such as steel and aluminum alloys has been restricted because of the cost of the material, limited sources of primary material, alloying constraints, high chemical reactivity, and challenges associated with its plasticity. Researchers, scientists, engineers, and economists from industry, government agencies and laboratories, and academic institutions alike are actively developing roadmaps for next-generation products and addressing these challenges as quickly as possible through unique and innovative methods. The TMS Magnesium Committee has been actively involved in providing a platform to these entities for disseminating the latest information, developments, and cutting-edge research and development, and showcasing the latest research and development trends related to magnesium and its alloys through the Magnesium Technology Symposium, which takes place every year at the TMS Annual Meeting. This proceedings volume retains the essence of this longstanding tradition. The twenty-first volume in the series, Magnesium Technology 2020, is the proceedings of the Magnesium Technology Symposium held during the 149th TMS Annual Meeting & Exhibition in San Diego, CA, February 23–27, 2020. The volume captures commentaries and papers from 15 different countries. The papers have been categorized systematically based on topics pertaining to magnesium production, casting and solidification, thermomechanical processing, deformation mechanisms, modeling, corrosion, and applications. The symposium began with keynote sessions that featured several distinguished invited speakers from government organizations and academia, who provided their perspectives on the state of the art, goals, and opportunities in magnesium alloy research and development. Dr. Carlos Tomé from Los Alamos National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, discussed 3D characterization of mechanical twins across grain boundaries. This was followed by a talk on hierarchically structured ultrafine-grained magnesium alloys by Dr. Rajiv Mishra from the University of North Texas, USA, who presented an example of using friction stir additive manufacturing for implementing such microstructures at a component level. Dr. Mark Horstemeyer from Liberty University, USA, presented an overview of fatigue modeling to capture the corrosion-fatigue behavior of magnesium alloys. The final talk in this session was presented by Dr. Bin Jiang from Chongqing University, China, who presented a novel extrusion approach for achieving high-strength magnesium alloy plates.

Jordon, J. Brian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effective field theory of stochastic diffusion from gravity

Planar black holes in AdS have long-lived quasinormal modes which capture the physics of charge and momentum diffusion in the dual field theory. How should we characterize the effective dynamics of a probe system coupled to the conserved currents of the dual field theory? Specifically, how would such a probe record the long-lived memory of the black hole and its Hawking fluctuations? We address this question by exhibiting a universal gauge invariant framework which captures the physics of stochastic diffusion in holography: a designer scalar with a gravitational coupling governed by a single parameter, the Markovianity index. We argue that the physics of gauge and gravitational perturbations of a planar Schwarzschild-AdS black hole can be efficiently captured by such designer scalars. We demonstrate that this framework allows one to decouple, at the quadratic order, the long-lived quasinormal and Hawking modes from the short-lived ones. It furthermore provides a template for analyzing fluctuating open quantum field theories with memory. In particular, we use this set-up to analyze the diffusive Hawking photons and gravitons about a planar Schwarzschild-AdS black hole and derive the quadratic effective action that governs fluctuating hydrodynamics of the dual CFT. Along the way we also derive results relevant for probes of hyperscaling violating backgrounds at finite temperature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Black branes with cosmological constant

We study neutral black branes with flat and curved worldvolumes in the presence of a negative cosmological constant. We reduce the equations governing the dynamics of such objects to one second-order ODE and perform various asymptotic expansions of the resulting equation. We also analyze regular geometries which have the same symmetries as the branes and interpolate between an empty interior and AdS asymptotics. We show that the dynamics of such spacetimes is governed by the Abel equation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Kinetic control of phase evolution and defect-mediated recombination in AACVD-grown copper antimony sulphide thin films

Copper antimony sulphide (CAS) is a multinary chalcogenide semiconductor in which small deviations from stoichiometry can drive phase competition and strong defect-mediated modulation of optoelectronic properties. However, the systematic roles of copper precursor fraction and deposition time in governing phase evolution, off-stoichiometry, and recombination dynamics in aerosol-assisted chemical vapour deposition (AACVD)-grown undoped CAS thin films remain insufficiently understood. In this work, undoped CAS thin films were deposited by AACVD using Cu(dedtc)2 and Sb(dedtc)3 single-source precursors at 550 °C and a carrier gas flow rate of 150 sccm, while the Cu(dedtc)2 mole fraction (x = 0.15 – 0.55) and deposition time (1 – 2 hours) were systematically varied to probe how growth kinetics influence phase composition, microstructure, and defect-mediated optical properties without post-deposition annealing or extrinsic doping. Increasing copper precursor content drives phase evolution toward tetrahedrite-dominant CAS films at intermediate Cu(dedtc)2 mole fractions, with the film deposited at x = 0.35 exhibiting the strongest tetrahedrite character within the parameter space examined. The films are also copper-rich, antimony-poor, and sulphur-deficient, consistent with off-stoichiometric growth and intrinsic defect formation, plausibly including copper interstitials, Cu-on-Sb antisites, and sulphur vacancies. These growth-dependent compositional deviations are accompanied by tunable indirect optical bandgaps of approximately 1.60 – 2.18 eV and weak visible photoluminescence governed by defect-mediated recombination. Time-resolved photoluminescence reveals bi-exponential decay behaviour with lifetimes of approximately 0.1 – 3.6 ns, with emission dominated by slower donor–acceptor pair recombination and a smaller contribution from faster trap-assisted pathways. Collectively, these results establish an explicit kinetic process–structure–defect–property relationship for AACVD-grown CAS thin films and provide a growth–structure–property framework relevant to future optimization of CAS-based optoelectronic and energy materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extended isogeometric analysis of multi-material and multi-physics problems using hierarchical B-splines

Here, this paper presents an immersed, isogeometric finite element framework to predict the response of multi-material, multi-physics problems with complex geometries using locally refined discretizations. To circumvent the need to generate conformal meshes, this work uses an extended finite element method (XFEM) to discretize the governing equations on non-conforming, embedding meshes. A flexible approach to create truncated hierarchical B-splines discretizations is presented. This approach enables the refinement of each state variable field individually to meet field-specific accuracy requirements. To obtain an immersed geometry representation that is consistent across all hierarchically refined B-spline discretizations, the geometry is immersed into a single mesh, the XFEM background mesh, which is constructed from the union of all hierarchical B-spline meshes. An extraction operator is introduced to represent the truncated hierarchical B-spline bases in terms of Lagrange shape functions on the XFEM background mesh without loss of accuracy. The truncated hierarchical B-spline bases are enriched using a generalized Heaviside enrichment strategy to accommodate small geometric features and multi-material problems. The governing equations are augmented by a formulation of the face-oriented ghost stabilization enhanced for locally refined B-spline bases. We present examples for two- and three-dimensional linear elastic and thermo-elastic problems. The numerical results validate the accuracy of our framework. The results also demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework to large, geometrically complex problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Level Set Model for Structured Mesh Representation of Fibrous Preforms used in Composites Manufacturing

Here, a model for implicit representation of fibrous and woven preforms used for composites manufacturing is described. The method is based on a level set function defined on a structured mesh to implicitly capture the complex fiber and weave geometries. Since most software packages used to model woven preforms are based on unstructured mesh, a numerical model for transforming a discretized surface to a structured mesh representation and vice-a-versa is presented. Specific emphasis is on scalable computation of a level set function for large and complex 3D woven structures from a triangulated surface of the smallest unit (yarn). The model is applied to capture a periodic 3D layered 5-harness satin (5HS) weave geometry on a structured mesh. Geometric transformations needed to efficiently compute the level set function for the 3D structure on a high resolution mesh are described. Effects of mesh resolution on the geometric features such as number of resolved fibers, effective fiber size, and the surface area to volume ratio of the iso-surface are analyzed. Using the distance property of the level set function, an approach to evaluate the structure function resulting from transient evolving topology representing densification due to matrix phase depositions is also presented. The approach captures transition of the geometric characteristic from fiber governed at early stages of densification to yarn governed at the terminal stage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A holistic framework integrating plant-microbe-mineral regulation of soil bioavailable nitrogen

Abstract Soil organic nitrogen (N) is a critical resource for plants and microbes, but the processes that govern its cycle are not well-described. To promote a holistic understanding of soil N dynamics, we need an integrated model that links soil organic matter (SOM) cycling to bioavailable N in both unmanaged and managed landscapes, including agroecosystems. We present a framework that unifies recent conceptual advances in our understanding of three critical steps in bioavailable N cycling: organic N (ON) depolymerization and solubilization; bioavailable N sorption and desorption on mineral surfaces; and microbial ON turnover including assimilation, mineralization, and the recycling of microbial products. Consideration of the balance between these processes provides insight into the sources, sinks, and flux rates of bioavailable N. By accounting for interactions among the biological, physical, and chemical controls over ON and its availability to plants and microbes, our conceptual model unifies complex mechanisms of ON transformation in a concrete conceptual framework that is amenable to experimental testing and translates into ideas for new management practices. This framework will allow researchers and practitioners to use common measurements of particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) to design strategic organic N-cycle interventions that optimize ecosystem productivity and minimize environmental N loss.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates

Abstract Flows in the atmospheric boundary layer are turbulent, characterized by a large Reynolds number, the existence of a roughness sublayer and the absence of a well-defined viscous layer. Exchanges with the surface are therefore dominated by turbulent fluxes. In numerical models for atmospheric flows, turbulent fluxes must be specified at the surface; however, surface fluxes are not known a priori and therefore must be parametrized. Atmospheric flow models, including global circulation, limited area models, and large-eddy simulation, employ Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to parametrize surface fluxes. The MOST approach is a semi-empirical formulation that accounts for atmospheric stability effects through universal stability functions. The stability functions are determined based on limited observations using simple regression as a function of the non-dimensional stability parameter representing a ratio of distance from the surface and the Obukhov length scale (Obukhov in Trudy Inst Theor Geofiz AN SSSR 1:95–115, 1946), $$z/L$$ z / L . However, simple regression cannot capture the relationship between governing parameters and surface-layer structure under the wide range of conditions to which MOST is commonly applied. We therefore develop, train, and test two machine-learning models, an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF), to estimate surface fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture based on surface and near-surface observations. To train and test these machine-learning algorithms, we use several years of observations from the Cabauw mast in the Netherlands and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Field Research Division tower in Idaho. The RF and ANN models outperform MOST. Even when we train the RF and ANN on one set of data and apply them to the second set, they provide more accurate estimates of all of the fluxes compared to MOST. Estimates of sensible heat and moisture fluxes are significantly improved, and model interpretability techniques highlight the logical physical relationships we expect in surface-layer processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗