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SiM4DC is a suite of MATLAB/Simulink models specifically developed for simulating offline and real-time high-power charging hubs with various components such as grid-tie inverters, EVSEs, EVs, energy storage systems, renewable generation, and uncontrolled site loads.
Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.
This technical report describes the design of a new 22 Megawatt reference wind turbine (RWT). The turbine model was designed collaboratively by two teams at the Denmark Technical University and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Technology Commercialization Programme (TCP) Task 55 on Reference Wind Turbines and Farms. RWTs serve an important purpose in the wind energy community, since they provide openly available data for models representative of current wind turbine technology, which can be used by practitioners for a variety of modeling purposes, ranging from aerodynamic, structural, and aeroelastic turbine modeling to wind farm flow modeling, across a range of fidelities. The IEA 22 RWT aims to model machines with projected installation in the 2025-2030 time frame. The turbine has a rotor diameter of 284 meters and a hub height of 170 meters. It is a class 1-B machine with a rotor specific power nearing 350 W m -2 and it is mounted on either a fixed-bottom offshore foundation or a semi-submersible floating platform.
Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.
Here, this article characterizes the performance and ridership patterns of an on-demand transit (ODT) service utilizing lightweight electric vehicles (EVs) in New Rochelle, New York. Ridership sociodemographics, travel patterns (both temporal and spatiotemporal), and energy use from the service were explored using travel and survey data from September 2019 through December 2023. The ODT service was found to be used more by women (nearly 60%) and younger demographics (>65% under the age of 42), with peak use in the middle of the day and a grocery store as a top origin and destination. The service was utilized primarily for short trips (86% under 2 mi), with approximately one-third of riders using the ODT service to connect to a train or bus. The costs associated with fueling/charging were compared for different types of fleet vehicles, and the small, right-sized EVs were found to have annual charging costs that were roughly half of the refueling costs for conventional hybrid vans, and 24 times lower than a fleet of diesel buses. Evaluating the vehicle fleet and mapping current socio-spatial travel demand can inform system performance, guide service area development, and support future planning such as expansion to nearby communities and transit hubs. The findings in this case study suggest that on-demand electric transit may be a significant and growing space for advancing highly valued public mobility services. Public transport interventions that consider right-sized, electric, on-demand vehicles can help improve mobility access and reduce energy use and refueling costs.
Resilient intermodal freight networks are vital for sustaining supply chains amid increasing threats from natural hazards and cyberattacks. Transportation resilience has been widely studied; understanding how random and targeted disruptions affect structural connectivity and functional performance remains a key challenge. To address this, this study evaluates the robustness of the US intermodal freight network, which consists of rail and water modes, using a simulation-based framework that integrates graph-theoretic metrics with flow-weighted centrality measures. Disruption scenarios are examined, including random failures as well as targeted node and edge removals based on static and dynamically updated degree and betweenness centrality. To reflect more realistic conditions, flow-weighted degree centralities (WDC) and partial node degradation are considered. Two resilience indicators are used: (1) the size of the giant connected component to measure structural connectivity; and (2) flow-weighted network efficiency (NE) to assess freight mobility under disruption. The results show that progressively degrading nodes ranked by WDC to 60% of their original functionality causes a sharper decline in normalized NE, for up to approximately 45 affected nodes, than complete failure (100% loss of functionality) applied to nodes targeted by weighted betweenness centrality or selected at random. This highlights how partial degradation of high-tonnage hubs can produce disproportionately large functional losses. The findings emphasize the need for resilience strategies that go beyond network topology to incorporate freight flow dynamics.
Through connecting genomic and metabolic information, metaproteomics is an essential approach for understanding how microbiomes function in space and time. The international metaproteomics community is delighted to announce the launch of the Metaproteomics Initiative (www.metaproteomics.org), the goal of which is to promote dissemination of metaproteomics fundamentals, advancements, and applications through collaborative networking in microbiome research. The Initiative aims to be the central information hub and open meeting place where newcomers and experts interact to communicate, standardize, and accelerate experimental and bioinformatic methodologies in this field. We invite the entire microbiome community to join and discuss potential synergies at the interfaces with other disciplines, and to collectively promote innovative approaches to gain deeper insights into microbiome functions and dynamics.
Background: The Atribacterota are widely distributed in the subsurface biosphere. Recently, the first Atribacterota isolate was described and the number of Atribacterota genome sequences retrieved from environmental samples has increased significantly; however, their diversity, physiology, ecology, and evolution remain poorly understood. Results: We report the isolation of the second member of Atribacterota, Thermatribacter velox gen. nov., sp. nov., within a new family Thermatribacteraceae fam. nov., and the short-term laboratory cultivation of a member of the JS1 lineage, Phoenicimicrobium oleiphilum HX-OS.bin.34 TS , both from a terrestrial oil reservoir. Physiological and metatranscriptomics analyses showed that Thermatribacter velox B11 T and Phoenicimicrobium oleiphilum HX-OS.bin.34 TS ferment sugars and n-alkanes, respectively, producing H 2 , CO 2 , and acetate as common products. Comparative genomics showed that all members of the Atribacterota lack a complete Wood-Ljungdahl Pathway (WLP), but that the Reductive Glycine Pathway (RGP) is widespread, indicating that the RGP, rather than WLP, is a central hub in Atribacterota metabolism. Ancestral character state reconstructions and phylogenetic analyses showed that key genes encoding the RGP (fdhA, fhs, folD, glyA, gcvT, gcvPAB, pdhD) and other central functions were gained independently in the two classes, Atribacteria (OP9) and Phoenicimicrobiia (JS1), after which they were inherited vertically; these genes included fumarate-adding enzymes (faeA; Phoenicimicrobiia only), the CODH/ACS complex (acsABCDE), and diverse hydrogenases (NiFe group 3b, 4b and FeFe group A3, C). Finally, we present genome-resolved community metabolic models showing the central roles of Atribacteria (OP9) and Phoenicimicrobiia (JS1) in acetate- and hydrocarbon-rich environments. Conclusion: Our findings expand the knowledge of the diversity, physiology, ecology, and evolution of the phylum Atribacterota. This study is a starting point for promoting more incisive studies of their syntrophic biology and may guide the rational design of strategies to cultivate them in the laboratory.
Abstract Background Spatially explicit simulation models of animal movements through the atmosphere necessarily require a representation of the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric conditions. In particular, for movements of soaring birds that rely extensively on vertical updrafts to avoid flapping flight, accurate and reliable estimation of the vertical component of wind is critical. The interaction between wind and complex terrain shapes both the horizontal and vertical wind fields, highlighting the need to model the coupling between local terrain features and atmospheric conditions at scales relevant to animal movement. Methods In this work, we propose a new empirical model for estimating the orographic updraft field. The model is developed using computational fluid dynamics simulations of canonical atmospheric conditions over moderately complex terrain. To isolate buoyancy and thermal effects, and focus on terrain-induced effects, we use only simulations of a neutrally stratified atmosphere to develop the model. The model, which we name Engineering Vertical Velocity Estimator (EVVE), is simple to implement and is a function of the underlying terrain elevation map, the desired height above ground level (AGL), and wind conditions at a reference height (80 m). We validate the model with data from the Alaiz mountain (Spain) field campaign. Results Compared to observations, the proposed improved model estimates the updrafts at 120 m AGL with a mean error of 0.11 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.28$$ σ = 0.28 m/s), compared to 0.85 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.58$$ σ = 0.58 m/s) for its baseline. For typical land-based wind turbine hub heights of 80 m AGL, the proposed model has a mean error of 0.04 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.25$$ σ = 0.25 m/s), compared to baseline 0.54 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.45$$ σ = 0.45 m/s) estimations. We illustrate an application of the model in movement ecology by comparing simulated tracks and presence maps of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) moving across two distinct landscapes. The tracks and presence maps are obtained using a simple heuristic-based movement model, with the updraft field given by the proposed model and a wind vector-based estimation approach that is currently in wide use in movement ecology studies of raptors and other soaring birds. Conclusions We highlight that movement model results can be sensitive to the underlying orographic updraft model, especially in studies of fine-scale movements in regions of complex topography. We suggest adopting the proposed model rather than the wind vector estimation method for studies of soaring bird movements.
This paper studies how to integrate rider mode preferences into the design of on-demand multimodal transit systems (ODMTSs). It is motivated by a common worry in transit agencies that an ODMTS may be poorly designed if the latent demand, that is, new riders adopting the system, is not captured. This paper proposes a bilevel optimization model to address this challenge, in which the leader problem determines the ODMTS design, and the follower problems identify the most cost efficient and convenient route for riders under the chosen design. The leader model contains a choice model for every potential rider that determines whether the rider adopts the ODMTS given her proposed route. To solve the bilevel optimization model, the paper proposes an exact decomposition method that includes Benders optimal cuts and no-good cuts to ensure the consistency of the rider choices in the leader and follower problems. Moreover, to improve computational efficiency, the paper proposes upper and lower bounds on trip durations for the follower problems, valid inequalities that strengthen the no-good cuts, and approaches to reduce the problem size with problem-specific preprocessing techniques. The proposed method is validated using an extensive computational study on a real data set from the Ann Arbor Area Transportation Authority, the transit agency for the broader Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti region in Michigan. The study considers the impact of a number of factors, including the price of on-demand shuttles, the number of hubs, and access to transit systems criteria. The designed ODMTSs feature high adoption rates and significantly shorter trip durations compared with the existing transit system and highlight the benefits of ensuring access for low-income riders. Finally, the computational study demonstrates the efficiency of the decomposition method for the case study and the benefits of computational enhancements that improve the baseline method by several orders of magnitude. Funding: This research was partly supported by National Science Foundation [Leap HI Proposal NSF-1854684] and the Department of Energy [Research Award 7F-30154].
Carbon materials are commonly found in both nuclear reactors and experimental systems. Various carbon structures occur in nuclear applications ranging from crystalline and nuclear graphite to the amorphous carbon seen in next-generation advanced reactor designs. Amorphous carbon is based on a randomized graphite-like structure and offers the unique ability to disperse impurities throughout the bulk composition. A graphite-like amorphous carbon system was modeled using the classical molecular dynamics (MD) code LAMMPS (Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator). An improved version of the temperature-dependent Adaptive Intermolecular Reactive Empirical Bond Order (AIREBO) potential was used to model the carbon-carbon atomic interactions for the temperature at 300 K along with densities 1.60, 1.70, 1.85, and 2.23 g/cm{sup 3}. From the normalized velocity autocorrelation function (VACF), the phonon density of state (DOS) was then calculated as the Fourier transform of the normalized VACF. This DOS was then used as the primary input for the evaluation of the thermal scattering law (TSL, i.e. S(α,β)) and associated neutron thermal scattering cross sections. The TSL was analyzed using the Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH). The amorphous structure results in shifts of the phonon DOS to lower energy modes than typically displayed for ideal crystalline graphite. This impact on the DOS is directly reflected in the TSL. Furthermore, the typical optical peak at 0.25 eV for the ideal graphite disappears for amorphous carbon, in good agreement with the expected structure. (authors)
During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.
Microbial inoculants can increase the yield of cultivated crops and are successful in independent trials; however, efficacy drops in large-scale applications due to insufficient consideration of microbial community dynamics. The structure of microbiomes, in addition to the impact of individual taxa, is an important factor to consider when designing growth-promoting inoculants. Here, we investigate the microbial network and community assembly patterns of Macrocystis pyrifera gametophyte germplasm cultures (collectively referred to as a “seedbank”) used to cultivate an offshore farm in Santa Barbara, California, and identify network features associated with increased biomass of mature sporophytes. We found that [1] several network features, such as clustering coefficient and edge ratios, significantly vary with biomass outcomes; [2] gametophytes that become low- or high-biomass sporophytes have different hub taxa; and [3] microbial community assembly of gametophyte germplasm cultures is niche-driven. Overall, this study describes microbial community dynamics in M . pyrifera germplasm cultures and ultimately supports the development of early life stage inoculants that can be used on seaweed cultivars to increase biomass yield.
This document describes the design requirements for the geothermal heat pump (GHP) module being added to the existing REopt Lite web tool. This document describes the purpose, users, and functional requirements to which the modified web tool shall conform. This document will be revised, as required, throughout the development phase with consensus between the Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) and NREL. The GHP module will expand existing REopt Lite capabilities to include techno-economic optimization of GHP systems, either stand alone, or integrated with the other existing technology types, namely solar photovoltaics (PV), wind power, battery energy storage, thermal energy storage, combined hear and power (CHP), and absorption chiller. Included in this submission are links to the REopt Lite web tool and open-source Git-Hub page. The REopt Lite tool can also be accessed directly via the NREL Developer Network. A link is also provided for the REopt report that overviews the module's capabilities.
Pterofin's Skimmer concept relies on a flapping and pitching hydrofoil to extract hydrokinetic energy from water flows. The concept aims to utilize unsteady fluid dynamics phenomena (added mass, shed vorticity, and unsteady boundary layer development) to achieve higher lift coefficients, enabling increased power density of the hydrokinetic device and a fundamental shift in the rpm/torque scaling of the power take off compared with turbines. The Applied Research Laboratory at Penn State, in collaboration with Pterofin, designed and built a proof-of-concept flapping/pitching mechanism which was subsequently tested in ARL's 12-inch water tunnel facility. The mechanical power supplied to or extracted from the mechanism was measured for a range of hydrofoils provided by Pterofin over operating conditions including reduced frequency, Reynolds number, and the ratio between pitching and flapping amplitudes. The power lost to friction in the mechanism was removed from the net power measurement by means of a bare hub tare, with the resultant hydrodynamic power being used to calculate a mechanism-independent and non-dimensional power coefficient. The product of this effort is a dataset describing the power coefficient of a hydrofoil having simultaneous pitching and flapping motions, both of which are approximately sinusoidal. Power coefficients were collected for a range of primary design variables including: - Reduced frequency: 0.01 to 0.95 - Pitching/flapping peak angle ratio: 1.5 to 3.0 - Chord-based Reynolds number: 60,000 to 560,000 Secondary design variables relating to the hydrofoil geometry were explored including: - Aspect ratio - Planform shape - Section thickness distribution - Hydrofoil position relative to the pitching axis - Hydrofoil sweep angle relative to the pitching axis Measured data are provided in mean and time series formats. MATLAB scripts are provided which can be used to generate figures of time-averaged and phase-averaged hydrodynamic power coefficients calculated from the measured data. A complete description of the experiment and data reduction can be found in the Post Access Report for the Pterofin Skimmer test effort which will be available on the TEAMER website. This work was supported by the Pacific Energy Ocean Trust via a TEAMER award.
In this project, we developed an on-demand microtransit first- and last-mile service. To integrate the service with fixed-route transit, we developed a feature called Transit Connect that prioritized riders’ on-time arrival at the transit station over other service requirements. We first prototyped service and related algorithms in a simulated environment, and then piloted the service in the city of Kent, Washington. Our algorithm incorporates request-specific hard drop-off deadlines to ensure timely arrivals for transit transfers. In the pilot, these constraints were obtained from GTFS Realtime data to accurately determine the schedule of the transit and the location of the stations. This approach introduced the ability to accept or decline new requests based on the timing of transit connections for these new requests and connection status of onboarding customers. The pilot (called “Ride Pingo to Transit”) deployed a fleet of three 14-person vans, ran from September 2021 to March 2023, and served a total of 21,329 trips. Transit Connect was offered for drop-offs at both Kent Station and the Kent Valley hub. In total, 2,844 such trips were completed. This dataset was collected from our pilot, which includes the following: - Requests: List of all trip requests, including those that were actually served and those not materialized. - Fleet: Daily vehicle service logs. - Service details: Daily vehicle stop logs (boarding and alighting). - Trip types: First mile, last mile, or point-to-point. 
In this project, we developed a micromobility first-mile service for customers to access public transit. We launched this service as a pilot in the Seattle area that incentivized transit customers to bike or scoot to transit. The objective was to learn how to integrate different micromobility services and provide a unified reward program. Our pilot was called “Bike and Scoot to Transit” and ran from November 2022 to September 2023. More than a dozen locations were selected near transit hubs and light rail/train stations as preferred parking locations. Trips ending at those locations were partially funded. The pilot supported 19,226 qualified trips and distributed $73,000 in total benefits for the participants of the pilot. This dataset was collected from our pilot, which includes the following: - Monthly data: Monthly trip and funding summaries. - Data summary: Data broken down based on the micromobility service provider and equipment. - Trip data: List of all trips recorded during the pilot. - Pricing models: Fees charged by micromobility service providers. 