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Inventory Management Improvement Project

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) conducts research and development for the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) and its affiliates. The Polymer AM team at LLNL conducts research and development in 3D printing, specifically direct-ink-write, in accordance with LLNL and NNSA missions. The team is composed of machine operators, chemists, testing engineers, and project engineers across multiple lab spaces with one shared storage area at LLNL. The operations use a variety of different consumables and hardware to conduct research applications for LLNL and NNSA. These items are critical to performing operation tasks; if an item is out of stock, operations associated with the respective item could be suspended for weeks. As such, the Polymer AM team manages an inventory of spare consumables and hardware to ensure these items are always available. However, the current management system, an excel sheet managed by the project engineer group, is not intuitive in providing inventory information despite the high labor utilization needed to maintain the system. As such, the team is looking to improve their inventory management that can send notifications regarding inventory needs, accessible to other team members, provide all relevant information to a specific item, and store historical information for budget and operation planning. The proposed solution is a Computer Maintenance Management System (CMMS): a web-based management software that stores inventory information and provides automated notifications. The system will store information on each item including quantity in stock, technical information, supplier information, costs, lead times, and expiration date. The system has a notifications function that can send notifications to the respective team member’s when an item needs to be counted, item inventory is low, or an item is approaching their expiration date. Information for each item can be tracked over time creating data to be used for budget planning and process improvement purposes. Due to its web-based source, the system can be accessed by the respective team member viewing technical information, quantity, and purchasing information.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of these mixed results is discussed with respect to the source term estimates.

OMI SO2↗

A Comparative Analysis between GIMSS NDVIg and NDVI3g for Monitoring Vegetation Activity Change in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2008

The long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data set generated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) has been widely used to monitor vegetation activity change. The third version of NDVI (NDVI3g) produced by the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group was released recently. The comparisons between the new and old versions should be conducted for linking existing studies with future applications of NDVI3g in monitoring vegetation activity change. Based on simple and piecewise linear regression methods, this research made a comparative analysis between NDVIg and NDVI3g for monitoring vegetation activity change and its responses to climate change in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during 1982–2008. Our results indicated that there were large differences between NDVIg and NDVI3g in the spatial patterns for both the overall changing trends and the timing of Turning Points (TP) in NDVI time series, which spread over almost the entire study region. The average NDVI trend from NDVI3g was almost twice as great as that from NDVIg and the detected average timing of TP from NDVI3g was about one year later. Although the general spatial patterns were consistent between two data sets for detecting the responses of growing-season NDVI to temperature and precipitation changes, there were large differences in the response magnitude, with a higher response magnitude to temperature in NDVI3g and an opposite response to precipitation change for the two data sets. Finally, these results demonstrated that the NDVIg data set may underestimate the vegetation activity change trend and its response to climate change in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the past three decades.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A taxonomy of bacterial microcompartment loci constructed by a novel scoring method

Bacterial microcompartments (BMCs) are proteinaceous organelles involved in both autotrophic and heterotrophic metabolism. All BMCs share homologous shell proteins but differ in their complement of enzymes; these are typically encoded adjacent to shell protein genes in genetic loci, or operons. To enable the identification and prediction of functional (sub)types of BMCs, we developed LoClass, an algorithm that finds putative BMC loci and inventories, weights, and compares their constituent pfam domains to construct a locus similarity network and predict locus (sub)types. In addition to using LoClass to analyze sequences in the Non-redundant Protein Database, we compared predicted BMC loci found in seven candidate bacterial phyla (six from single-cell genomic studies) to the LoClass taxonomy. Together, these analyses resulted in the identification of 23 different types of BMCs encoded in 30 distinct locus (sub)types found in 23 bacterial phyla. These include the two carboxysome types and a divergent set of metabolosomes, BMCs that share a common catalytic core and process distinct substrates via specific signature enzymes. Furthermore, many Candidate BMCs were found that lack one or more core metabolosome components, including one that is predicted to represent an entirely new paradigm for BMC-associated metabolism, joining the carboxysome and metabolosome. By placing these results in a phylogenetic context, we provide a framework for understanding the horizontal transfer of these loci, a starting point for studies aimed at understanding the evolution of BMCs. This comprehensive taxonomy of BMC loci, based on their constituent protein domains, foregrounds the functional diversity of BMCs and provides a reference for interpreting the role of BMC gene clusters encoded in isolate, single cell, and metagenomic data. Many loci encode ancillary functions such as transporters or genes for cofactor assembly; this expanded vocabulary of BMC-related functions should be useful for design of genetic modules for introducing BMCs in bioengineering applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Water desorption from rapidly-heated metal oxide surfaces—first principles, molecular dynamics, and the Temkin isotherm

Quantitative understanding and control of water and impurity desorption from steel surfaces are crucial for high-voltage, pulsed power, vacuum technology, catalysis, and environmental applications. We apply a suite of modeling techniques, ranging from electronic density functional theory, to classical molecular dynamics (MD) and grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) methods to study the thermodynamics and kinetics of fast water desorption from different surfaces of hematite Fe 2 O 3 and Cr 2 O 3 . Water binding energies on chromium oxide are found to be higher than iron oxide at zero temperature. MD simulations are conducted on Fe 2 O 3 surfaces using thermodynamically consistent initial water inventory deduced with GCMC. The resulting time- and temperature-dependent desorption profiles on the Fe 2 O 3 ($0001$) surfaces show multi-water cooperative behavior which cannot be deduced from zero temperature predictions, but which are in reasonable agreement with simple Temkin isotherm model estimates if finite temperature effects are incorporated into the Temkin binding energy parameter. Finally, qualitatively different desorption behaviors associated with the ($0001$) and ($1\bar{1}02$) facets are discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Assessing the methane mitigation potential of innovative management in US rice production

Abstract Rice is an important global crop while also contributing significant anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions. To support the future of rice production, more information is needed on the impacts of sustainability-driven management used to grow rice with lower associated methane emissions. Recent support for the impacts of different growing practices in the US has prompted the application of a regional methodology (Tier 2) to estimate methane emissions in different rice growing regions. The methodology estimates rice methane emissions from the US Mid-South (MdS) and California (Cal) using region-specific scaling factors applied to a region-specific baseline flux. In our study, we leverage land cover data and soil clay content to estimate methane emissions using this approach, while also examining how changes in common production practices can affect overall emissions in the US. Our results indicated US rice cultivation produced between 0.32 and 0.45 Tg CH 4 annually, which were approximately 7% and 42% lower on average compared to Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inventories, respectively. Our estimates were 63% greater on average compared to similar methods that lack regional context. Introducing aeration events into irrigation resulted in the greatest methane reductions across both regions. When accounting for differences between baseline and reduction scenarios, the US MdS typically had higher mitigation potential compared to Cal. The differences in cumulative mitigation potential across the 2008–2020 period were likely driven by lower production area clay content for the US MdS compared to Cal. The added spatial representation in the Tier 2 approach is useful in surveying how impactful methane-reducing practices might be within and across regions.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Evaluation of the spatial self-shielding impact for TRISO-based nuclear fuel depletion

Reactor physics analyses of nuclear cores with nuclear fuel concepts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles, such as pebbles or compact fuel elements, rely on various degrees of simplification to keep these highly heterogeneous problems computationally tractable. One such limitation regards the level of spatial discretization employed during burnup calculations, where traditionally only a limited number of spatial zones are modeled at the full core level and assume that the spectrum is constant within the fuel elements and TRISO particles in this depletion zone. This type of assumption neglects the impact of spatial self-shielding effect within the kernels (microscale level) as well as within the compact or pebbles (mesoscale level). Furthermore, the Monte Carlo code Serpent 2 contains many relevant features for efficiently modeling this type of geometry, including a collision-based domain decomposition intended for very large burnup calculations, which we leveraged for this work to quantify the impact of capturing neutron flux variations occurring at the micro- and mesoscale level on a series of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor fuel element depletion problems. While spatial self-shielding is observed at both scales, with differences from a volume-averaged burnup of ±7% within the kernels and ±2% between TRISO particles within the fuel element, the conjugated effect on nuclide inventories and multiplication factor are negligible, hence confirming that assuming a single average spectrum value may be sufficient for most applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Equilibrium Core Model for Micro Pebble Bed Reactors Using OpenMC

Estimating the equilibrium state for pebble bed reactors (PBRs) presents complex challenges as it requires simultaneous consideration of changes in the pebbles’ movement as well as their fuel compositions. Whereas traditional approaches use multigroup diffusion codes for neutronics calculations of PBRs’ equilibrium state, the double-heterogeneity of PBRs complicates neutron cross-section generation. Continuous-energy Monte Carlo (MC) methods are better suited for detailed PBR analysis because of their natural handling of double-heterogeneity, but they demand substantially more computational resources. Here, this study introduces a novel method for efficiently estimating the equilibrium state in small and micro PBRs with reduced computational cost. The method is anticipated to accelerate the processes of core design and performing parametric studies for utilizing advanced fuel and structural materials. The HTR-10 reactor design was used for validating the method’s predictions and evaluating its computational efficiency. When compared to reference calculation values from the literature, criticality (k-effective) was predicted to be approximately within the margin of error of the MC transport calculation, average core power density (in megawatts per cubic meter) was predicted within 2.5% relative error, and maximum thermal flux (10 13 n/cm 2 .s −1 ) was predicted within 1.8% relative error. The calculated inventory of fission products and fuel composition in the equilibrium core were within 15% and 16.6%, respectively, when compared to reported values from the literature. The difference is attributed to variance in the considered values of the core temperature, which was found to significantly affect the depletion analyses.

Equilibrium core↗

Zeolite membrane cascade for tritium extraction and recovery systems

Membrane separation by zeolite membranes has been proposed as a pre-concentration stage for the tritium extraction from the purge helium of the breeding blanket combined with a final recovery by the catalytic membrane reactor PERMCAT. This fully continuous operation improves the tritium management in fusion machines, minimizing the tritium inventory. For the first time, the permeation measurements for H{sub 2} - He mixtures through a MFI-alumina hollow fibre membrane has been measured for different compositions (0.1 - 20% H{sub 2}) and temperatures. Such a highly permeable membrane, although it shows a limited selectivity, appears attractive for tritium recovery in the blanket. This will imply its operation in a membrane cascade, for which simulation work is ongoing. Mathematically the process is modeled using mass balance equations that can be transformed into the matrix form and solved iteratively assuming a permeate concentration on the first step of iteration, until the separation requirements are fulfilled.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A comprehensive and synthetic dataset for global, regional, and national greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1970–2018 with an extension to 2019

To track progress towards keeping global warming well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, comprehensive up-to-date and reliable information on anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required. Here we compile a new synthetic dataset on anthropogenic GHG emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. Our dataset is global in coverage and includes CO 2 emissions, CH 4 emissions, N 2 O emissions, as well as those from fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 , NF 3 ) and provides country and sector details. We build this dataset from the version 6 release of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v6) and three bookkeeping models for CO 2 emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). We assess the uncertainties of global greenhouse gases at the 90 % confidence interval (5th–95th percentile range) by combining statistical analysis and comparisons of global emissions inventories and top-down atmospheric measurements with an expert judgement informed by the relevant scientific literature. We identify important data gaps for F-gas emissions. The agreement between our bottom-up inventory estimates and top-down atmospheric-based emissions estimates is relatively close for some F-gas species (~ 10 % or less), but estimates can differ by an order of magnitude or more for others. Our aggregated F-gas estimate is about 10 % lower than top-down estimates in recent years. However, emissions from excluded F-gas species such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are cumulatively larger than the sum of the reported species. Using global warming potential values with a 100-year time horizon from the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global GHG emissions in 2018 amounted to 58 ± 6.1 GtCO 2 eq. consisting of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion and industry (FFI) 38 ± 3.0 GtCO 2 , CO 2 -LULUCF 5.7 ± 4.0 GtCO 2 , CH 4 10 ± 3.1 GtCO 2 eq., N2O 2.6 ± 1.6 GtCO 2 eq., and F-gases 1.3 ± 0.40 GtCO 2 eq. Initial estimates suggest further growth of 1.3 GtCO 2 eq. in GHG emissions to reach 59 ± 6.6 GtCO 2 eq. by 2019. Our analysis of global trends in anthropogenic GHG emissions over the past 5 decades (1970–2018) highlights a pattern of varied but sustained emissions growth. There is high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased every decade, and emissions growth has been persistent across the different (groups of) gases. There is also high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions levels were higher in 2009–2018 than in any previous decade and that GHG emissions levels grew throughout the most recent decade. While the average annual GHG emissions growth rate slowed between 2009 and 2018 (1.2 % yr –1 ) compared to 2000–2009 (2.4 % yr –1 ), the absolute increase in average annual GHG emissions by decade was never larger than between 2000–2009 and 2009–2018. Our analysis further reveals that there are no global sectors that show sustained reductions in GHG emissions. There are a number of countries that have reduced GHG emissions over the past decade, but these reductions are comparatively modest and outgrown by much larger emissions growth in some developing countries such as China, India, and Indonesia. There is a need to further develop independent, robust, and timely emissions estimates across all gases. As such, tracking progress in climate policy requires substantial investments in independent GHG emissions accounting and monitoring as well as in national and international statistical infrastructures. The data associated with this article (Minx et al., 2021) can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5566761.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In Situ and Satellite Measured Temperature Comparability

Following the International Geophysical Year in the late 1950's, small meteorological rockets caught the interest of scientists as a potentially inexpensive method to obtain meteorological information (density, temperature, wind) above balloon-borne radiosonde altitudes. These small rocketsondes have served many important observational roles in terms of studies conducted of atmospheric structure and processes, enabling many new ideas about the atmosphere to emerge. Although no longer manufactured a small residual inventory of meteorological rocketsondes exist for specific research projects. The value of data from meteorological rocketsondes is without question but with their disappearance data from many different satellites are filling the need, some able to resolve high-altitude temperatures quite well. However, the rocketsonde vertical profile is more localized to the launch site whereas satellites move several kilometers per second. The objective of this presentation is to compare in situ temperature data with remotely measured/retrieved temperature data. There have been a number of U.S. conducted missions utilizing the passive falling sphere data that we use to verify the comparability of retrieved temperatures from these satellites. Missions, some as early as 1991, were conducted in polar, equatorial, and mid-latitude locations. An important aspect is that a single satellite profile compared to a falling sphere profile often does not agree while high density satellite measurements when averaged over an area near the rocketsonde data area seems to be in better agreement. Radiosonde temperature data are used in the analysis when appropriate

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

Quantification of calculation accuracy for code systems in burn-up credit applications by recalculations of experimental data - 14480

For application in criticality safety, numerical code systems require profound validation against experimental data. In terms of burn-up credit, this refers to the inventory determination as well as the subsequent criticality calculation. Within this framework, a dedicated, conservative estimation of uncertainties, bias and bias uncertainties for the resulting calculated multiplication factor k{sub eff} is indispensable. However, measures to reduce excess conservatism may become desirable, depending on the application case. For this reason GRS implemented a methodology to validate a calculation code system for criticality safety analyses for systems with irradiated nuclear fuel. The work at hand demonstrates this methodology by means of the GRS home-built inventory determination system KENOREST and ORNL's well-known SCALE 6 CSASS criticality safety calculation sequence. A number of 40 radiochemical analysis samples taken from SFCOMPO and elsewhere have been calculated to derive isotopic correction factors in different ways, depending on the required level of conservatism and the calculational efforts to be carried out. This includes bounding methods as well as different Monte Carlo sampling approaches. Furthermore, from the ICSBEP a number of 515 critical benchmark experiment configurations comprising water moderated low enriched UO{sub 2} fuel rods and water moderated mixed oxide (MOX) fuel rods have been selected and evaluated. Important absorber and structure materials are also covered. Various trending and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods have been applied, again to derive conservative estimates on the various contributions to k{sub eff} uncertainties. The overall methodology is applicable to low enriched, water moderated PWR uranium dioxide fuels in a burn-up range of about 10 to 60 GWd/tHM, and validates the reactivity contributions of the major uranium and plutonium isotopes. The methodology itself has no limitation which requires the exclusion of further isotopes as e.g. fission products. However, its application is constrained by the experimental database being publicly available. After the potential provision of an extended database in the future, the range of applicability can easily be extended to more nuclides. In addition, it is not limited to the code systems being used here but can also be applied using different numerical tools. For a generic PWR spent fuel pool rack and different enrichment and burn-up combinations, the impact of the current level of validation on k{sub eff} is demonstrated and quantified. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Distributed Intelligent Automated Demand Response Building Management System

The goal of the 2.5 year Distributed Intelligent Automated Demand Response (DIADR) project was to reduce peak electricity load of Sutardja Dai Hall at UC Berkeley by 30% while maintaining a healthy, comfortable, and productive environment for the occupants. We sought to bring together both central and distributed control to provide “deep” demand response1 at the appliance level of the building as well as typical lighting and HVAC applications. This project brought together Siemens Corporate Research and Siemens Building Technology (the building has a Siemens Apogee Building Automation System (BAS)), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (leveraging their Open Automated Demand Response (openADR), Auto-­Demand Response, and building modeling expertise), and UC Berkeley (related demand response research including distributed wireless control, and grid-­to-­building gateway development). Sutardja Dai Hall houses the Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (CITRIS), which fosters collaboration among industry and faculty and students of four UC campuses (Berkeley, Davis, Merced, and Santa Cruz). The 141,000 square foot building, occupied in 2009, includes typical office spaces and a nanofabrication laboratory. Heating is provided by a district heating system (steam from campus as a byproduct of the campus cogeneration plant); cooling is provided by one of two chillers: a more typical electric centrifugal compressor chiller designed for the cool months (Nov-­ March) and a steam absorption chiller for use in the warm months (April-­October). Lighting in the open office areas is provided by direct-­indirect luminaries with Building Management System-­based scheduling for open areas, and occupancy sensors for private office areas. For the purposes of this project, we focused on the office portion of the building. Annual energy consumption is approximately 8053 MWh; the office portion is estimated as 1924 MWh. The maximum peak load during the study period was 1175 kW. Several new tools facilitated this work, such as the Smart Energy Box, the distributed load controller or Energy Information Gateway, the web-­based DR controller (dubbed the Central Load-­Shed Coordinator or CLSC), and the Demand Response Capacity Assessment & Operation Assistance Tool (DRCAOT). In addition, an innovative data aggregator called sMAP (simple Measurement and Actuation Profile) allowed data from different sources collected in a compact form and facilitated detailed analysis of the building systems operation. A smart phone application (RAP or Rapid Audit Protocol) facilitated an inventory of the building’s plug loads. Carbon dioxide sensors located in conference rooms and classrooms allowed demand controlled ventilation. The extensive submetering and nimble access to this data provided great insight into the details of the building operation as well as quick diagnostics and analyses of tests. For example, students discovered a short-­cycling chiller, a stuck damper, and a leaking cooling coil in the first field tests. For our final field tests, we were able to see how each zone was affected by the DR strategies (e.g., the offices on the 7th floor grew very warm quickly) and fine-­tune the strategies accordingly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Temperature-Time Modeling of Spent Fuel Cladding in Dry Storage Casks

This report uses thermal and decay heat modeling to investigate spent fuel performance and the potential for cladding to anneal in dry storage conditions. Annealing is an important feature to investigate in SNF cladding because it has a direct relationship to cladding response in storage, transportation and disposal conditions. Annealed cladding may have lower strength than unannealed cladding, however its increased ductility would provide better protection against rupture in high strain rate situations such as severe accidents. These consequences are the driver for this work however are outside of the scope of this report. The modeling focused on three representative storage systems, the TN-32B, MAGNASTOR with TSC-37 canister, and NUHOMS AHSM with a 32PTH2 canister. This covers the vertical dual-purpose, vertical ventilated and horizontal ventilated casks respectively. Decay heat modeling using high and low enrichment assemblies was used to bound the decay heat curves that might be expected in dry storage. To bound the temperature relationship, the storage casks were modeled starting at the design basis heat loads with heat decaying through time. Although the results are bounding there is not an attempt to maximize conservatism, rather the intent to form a reasonable upper limit on temperature that will be broadly applicable to the U.S. cask fleet. This will allow materials testing to focus on relevant conditions for annealing that may affect the U.S. spent fuel inventory. The results show a clear dependence on heat load pattern in time in Figure S-1 and Figure S-2. This dependence is due to the different assembly decay heat curves for different assemblies in preferentially loaded casks. It shows the need for careful decay heat modeling when examining in service fuel temperatures that are less than the cask design basis heat load. The body of the report shows percent cladding cutoffs of 300°C and 350 °C as well. These results can be used to inform testing and conclusions about cladding performance through time and the potential for cladding annealing during dry storage.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A timer inventory based upon manual and automated analysis of ERTS-1 and supporting aircraft data using multistage probability sampling

A quasi-operational study demonstrating that a timber inventory based on manual and automated analysis of ERTS-1, supporting aircraft data and ground data was made using multistage sampling techniques. The inventory proved to be a timely, cost effective alternative to conventional timber inventory techniques. The timber volume on the Quincy Ranger District of the Plumas National Forest was estimated to be 2.44 billion board feet with a sampling error of 8.2 percent. Costs per acre for the inventory procedure at 1.1 cent/acre compared favorably with the costs of a conventional inventory at 25 cents/acre. A point-by-point comparison of CALSCAN-classified ERTS data with human-interpreted low altitude photo plots indicated no significant differences in the overall classification accuracies.

Nichols, J. D.↗

Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

periodic variations↗

The 50-Year Landsat Collection 2 Archive

The Landsat global consolidated data archive now exceeds 50 years. In recognition of the need for consistently processed data across the Landsat satellite series, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated collection-based processing of the entire archive that was processed as Collection 1 in 2016. In preparation for the data from the now successfully launched Landsat 9, the USGS reprocessed the Landsat archive as Collection 2 in 2020. This paper describes the rationale for, and the contents and advancements provided by Collection 2, and highlights the differences between the Collection 1 and Collection 2 products. Notably, the Collection 2 products have improved geolocation and, for the first time, the USGS provides a global inventory of Level 2 surface reflectance and surface temperature products. Also for the first time, the USGS used a commercial cloud computing architecture to efficiently process the archive and enable direct cloud access of the Landsat products. The paper concludes with discussion of likely improvements expected in Collection 3 in preparation for the Landsat Next mission that is planned for launch in the early 2030s.

Christopher J Crawford↗

Safeguards Challenges and Safeguards Technology Needs Assessment for Leading Thorium Fuel Cycles

Several thorium fuel cycle variants are currently being actively pursued by the global nuclear energy community. These variants have short-, medium-, and long-term deployment pathways in a variety of reactor types, including thorium-fueled molten salt reactors. Those pathways in turn give rise to a variety of fuel designs, fuel cycle facilities, and nuclear material processing requirements. These emerging fuel cycles will impact the technical implementation of safeguards, and they already raise questions about the applicability of current verification technologies. To address this issue, research is being performed to produce a detailed safeguards technology road map. It will include a needs assessment of the detection research and development (R&D;) necessary to transition the current safeguards technology toolkit to meet the verification needs of thorium fuel cycles, and to formulate the scientific basis for building new instrumentation to fill any potential capability gaps. The purpose of this technology road map is to define and inform on the safeguards technology needs for thorium fuel cycles, reflecting only the leading candidate thorium fuel cycles prioritized based on implementation timescales and the current direction of international programs. This work provides a guide to the priorities for future directed R&D; needed to bring the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of safeguards detection solutions in line with the higher TRLs of the most promising thorium fuel cycles. Herein, a summary is presented of thorium fuel cycle options and activities currently under way worldwide, which provides the technical basis for the needs evaluation. The key synergies and differences between these fuel cycles and current conventional uranium- and plutonium-based fuel cycles will be discussed from a nuclear material accountancy and detection standpoint. Reactor inventory calculations, fuel cycle simulations, and conclusions from the safeguards technology needs assessment will be presented, together with plans for experimental validation.

Worrall, Louise G.↗