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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8x6 Supersonic Wind Tunnel

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A detailed description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. Detailed uncertainty results for the uncertainty in average free stream Mach number as well as other variables of interest are provided. All results are presented as random (variation in observed values about a true value), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty. The largest sources contributing to uncertainty are determined and potential improvement opportunities for the facility are investigated.

Error↗

General Nobile and the Airship Italia: No Second-In-Command

The airship Italia, commanded by General Umberto Nobile, crashed during its return flight from the North Pole in 1928. Prior work has demonstrated the possibility that this crash was fatigue-related, due to significant sleep-deprivation on the part of its Commander, and to resulting errors in cognition and judgment. However, the underlying cause of the fatigue was likely due to the fact that the Commander did not have a Second-In-Command on board to take over duties while the Commander was allowed to rest. At that time the Second-In-Command was a formally designated position, and according to Nobiles previous writings was considered to be a necessary crew member on an airship.

Second-In-Command↗

Methods of Performing Large Scale, Multidimensional Parametric Studies for Space Launch System Mission Analysis

Optimizing a large number of trajectories over a wide range of parameters is a difficult and computationally intensive, particularly when the parametric space has a large number of dimensions. Solving parametric studies like these require good initial conditions for each optimization case, which results in a significant amount of manual interaction and human judgment and can be time consuming. The Space Launch System (SLS) uses POST2 (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II) to simulate different ascent trajectories and perform mission analysis. SLS mission analysis currently uses two types of large scale, multidimensional parameter spaces. The qualifying factor between these spaces is the grid density, which determines the set of applicable solution methodologies. One type has a relatively low number of dimensions (2-3), but a large number of grid coordinates (2000- 4000), whereas the second type has a relatively low number of grid coordinates (150-350), but a higher number of dimensions (7-10).

Stein, W. B.↗

An Exploratory Evaluation of UAS Detect and Avoid Operations in the Terminal Environment

New technical standards for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) detect and avoid (DAA) systems mark recent progress toward realizing the goal of full integration of UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). The DAA system is intended to provide a means of compliance with operating regulations that required pilots on board manned aircraft to remain "well clear" of other aircraft which is accomplished through out-the-window visual acquisition of other aircraft and application of a subjective judgment of safe separation. The requirements for the DAA system, including the specification of a DAA well clear threshold as well as functional requirements for detecting, tracking, alerting and guidance processing, and displays, are specified in DO-365, Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for DAA Systems developed within RTCA (Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics) Special Committee 228 (SC-228). Intended as the first in a series of phased versions, these requirements are frequently referred to as the "Phase 1" DAA system. The Phase 1 DAA system is limited for use by aircraft transitioning to and from Class A or special use airspace, through Class D, E, and G airspace. In particular, the Phase 1 DAA MOPS are not intended for terminal airspace operations, a critical gap for enabling a full range of UAS operations. The application of the Phase 1 DAA system and DAA well clear threshold within the terminal area is predicted to result in a high number of unnecessary alerts when the UAS is safely separated from other traffic. The goal of the present study was to examine pilot performance and operational issues related to the operation of the Phase 1 DAA system in a terminal area. This experiment was intended as an exploratory study that would be used to inform the development of a new terminal area-specific DAA well clear definition, and associated alerting and guidance requirements. The two main objectives of this study were to: 1) characterize pilot behavior in the terminal environment with the Phase 1 DAA system, and 2) investigate the effect of modifications to the Phase 1 DAA alerting and guidance structure. In particular, the authors were interested in determining whether the removal of specific alerting and guidance levels, without changing the DAA well clear definition or alerting thresholds, would impact pilot performance while conducting terminal operations. The results indicate that the Phase 1 well clear definition and alerting and guidance resulted in frequent alerting that degraded pilots' ability to discriminate between encounters where another aircraft was safely separated versus when a maneuver was necessary. The resulting impact on pilot performance was slower response times and higher frequency and severity of losses of DAA well clear compared to those observed for experiments examining pilot performance in the en route environment. There was no significant effect of alerting and guidance display configuration on pilot performance.

terminal area↗

An Exploratory Evaluation of UAS Detect and Avoid Operations in the Terminal Environment

New technical standards for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) detect and avoid (DAA) systems mark recent progress toward realizing the goal of full integration of UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). The DAA system is intended to provide a means of compliance with operating regulations that required pilots on board manned aircraft to remain "well clear" of other aircraft which is accomplished through out-the-window visual acquisition of other aircraft and application of a subjective judgment of safe separation. The requirements for the DAA system, including the specification of a DAA well clear threshold as well as functional requirements for detecting, tracking, alerting and guidance processing, and displays, are specified in DO-365, Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for DAA Systems developed within RTCA Special Committee 228 (SC-228). Intended as the first in a series of phased versions, these requirements are frequently referred to as the "Phase 1" DAA system. The Phase 1 DAA system is limited for use by aircraft transitioning to and from Class A or special use airspace, through Class D, E, and G airspace. In particular, the Phase 1 DAA MOPS are not intended for terminal airspace operations, a critical gap for enabling a full range of UAS operations. The application of the Phase 1 DAA system and DAA well clear threshold within the terminal area is predicted to result in a high number of unnecessary alerts when the UAS is safely separated from other traffic. The goal of the present study was to examine pilot performance and operational issues related to the operation of the Phase 1 DAA system in a terminal area. This experiment was intended as an exploratory study that would be used to inform the development of a new terminal area-specific DAA well clear definition, and associated alerting and guidance requirements. The two main objectives of this study were to: 1) characterize pilot behavior in the terminal environment with the Phase 1 DAA system, and 2) investigate the effect of modifications to the Phase 1 DAA alerting and guidance structure. In particular, the authors were interested in determining whether the removal of specific alerting and guidance levels, without changing the DAA well clear definition or alerting thresholds, would impact pilot performance while conducting terminal operations. The results indicate that the Phase 1 well clear definition and alerting and guidance resulted in frequent alerting that degraded pilots' ability to discriminate between encounters where another aircraft was safely separated versus when a maneuver was necessary. The resulting impact on pilot performance was slower response times and higher frequency and severity of losses of DAA well clear compared to those observed for experiments examining pilot performance in the en route environment. There was no significant effect of alerting and guidance display configuration on pilot performance.

Rorie, Conrad↗

Effects of Acute Stress on Aircrew Performance: Literature Review and Analysis of Operational Aspects

Situational stress can adversely affect the cognition and skilled performance of pilots, as well as experts in other domains. Emergencies and other threatening situations require pilots to execute infrequently practiced procedures correctly and to use their skills and judgment to select an appropriate course of action, often under high workload, time pressure, and ambiguous indications, all of which can be stressful. Our current study, consited of three parts, starting with a critical review of the research literature on the effects of stress on skilled performance, going back to World War II and continuing to recent and more sophisticated studies of the cognitive effects of anxiety. In the second part we analyzed the specific ways stress may have impaired the performance of airline crews in twelve major accidents, selected for diversity of the situations the crews encountered. The third part examined the operational significance and practical implications of the findings from the first two parts, suggested specific ways to reduce the harmful effects of stress on flight crews, and identified aspects requiring further research. Even thought this study focused on flight crews, the findings apply to the effects of stress on the skilled performance of experts in almost any domain.

stress↗

San Francisco Bar Pilot Fatigue Study

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extent of fatigue among San Francisco Bar Pilots (Maritime Pilots) and its potential impact on safety, and to make recommendations concerning how the risk of fatigue could be managed. Information was gathered via a literature review, observations of Bar Pilots at work, surveys, a task analysis, and an analysis of dispatch records.The work of San Francisco Bar Pilots involves an unusual mix of activities and job demands. Their work calls for situational awareness, reasoning, communication, and perceptual abilities comparable to those required by airline pilots and air traffic controllers. Errors can have severe consequences for public safety and the environment, as well as significant financial costs. Fatigue is increasingly recognized as a hazard that must be managed by the transportation industry. The reduced sleep quality and quantity experienced by personnel who work at night, in conjunction with human circadian rhythms can lead to an operationally significant level of cognitive impairment. The cognitive impact of fatigue includes functions that are critical to safe maritime piloting, such as vigilance, judgment, reaction time and communication. The surveys distributed to Bar Pilots did not uncover evidence of widespread fatigue. The survey results also suggested that fatigue was not a major concern of Bar Pilots. Bar Pilots had overall low scores on the subjective fatigue measures used in the survey, and generally assessed the safety risk due to fatigue as low. Compared to air traffic controllers, Bar Pilots gave significantly lower ratings on questions concerning the prevalence and impact of fatigue. The application of fatigue modeling software to Bar Pilot dispatch records identified that in most cases, pilot's cognitive effectiveness was predicted to be acceptable during their duty periods. However, these results could not be verified with objective data.The study identified a number of fatigue issues that deserve attention. These include Bar Pilot work periods that frequently infringe on the circadian low, consecutive work periods without a significant break, consecutive periods of night work, unpredictable work schedules, start time variability, the potential for sleep inertia, and the number of pilots on the board at any given time.

fatigue↗

Investigating the Impacts of a Separation Standard for UAS Operations in Enroute and Transition Airspace

Unmanned aircraft systems will be required to equip with a detect and avoid system in order to satisfy the federal aviation regulations to remain well clear of other aircraft. To comply with regulations in today’s operations manned aircraft must “see and avoid” other aircraft and use subjective judgment to determine whether those aircraft are well clear. For a detect-and- avoid (DAA) system to satisfy the requirement to stay well clear, a quantitative definition of well clear needs to be defined and evaluated. Definitions for the boundary of well clear have been proposed by the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Executive Committee Science and Research Panel (SaRP) and the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) Special Committee 228 on Detect and Avoid Systems. This study investigates the interoperability implications of UAS using proposed well clear definitions as a separation standard for conducting operations in the national airspace system. The first analysis in the study focuses on the effect of variations in well clear definition parameters on the rate of losses of well clear per flight hour. The second analysis considers three well clear definitions and presents the relative state conditions of intruder aircraft as they encroach upon the well clear boundary. The third analysis focuses on the definition of the alerting criteria needed to inform the UAS operator of a potential loss of well clear. All three analyses are conducted in a NAS-wide fast-time simulation environment using UAS aircraft models, proposed UAS missions, and historical air defense radar data to populate the background traffic operating under visual flight rules. The results from the three analyses presented in this study inform the safety case, requirements development, and the operational environment for the DAA minimum operational performance standards.

UAS Seperation Standard↗

Determination of Uncertainties for Analytically Derived Material Properties to Be Used in Monte Carlo Based Orion Heatshield Sizing

Ablative materials are often used for spacecraft heatshields to protect underlying structures from the extreme environments associated with atmospheric reentry. NASA's Orion EM-1 capsule has been designed to use a molded Avcoat material system. In order to determine the required heatshield thickness, a Monte Carlo approach to the sizing process was proposed. To perform the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on all material property input parameters were required. Obtaining these values for measured properties is straightforward, however input parameters that are derived analytically have historically used uncertainties based on engineering judgment. A MATLAB program was created to use laboratory generated thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data to calculate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for molded Avcoat. Uncertainties associated with the normalized ablation rate and pyrolysis gas enthalpy were also generated using a wrapper script and the ACE code. These uncertainties could then be tied directly to measured values of individual elemental constituents. The resulting uncertainty values will allow for a probabilistic sizing approach on molded Avcoat with a higher level of confidence in the input parameters.

material property uncertainties↗

Space Research Project Management Can Benefit from Engineering Technology Selection Methods

Many engineering methods have been developed to help management select technology for a system design or further research. The simplest way to compare technologies is to use a checklist containing all the more or less important selection criteria, so that nothing is overlooked. The criteria usually include cost, safety, reliability and maintainability, and potential problems such as noise generation and microgravity sensitivity. The next step typically is to weight and score all the criteria. The process of weighting and scoring is helpful in bringing out different priorities and reaching a shared point of view. Group technology selection methods are designed to highlight initial disagreements and produce a shared consensus. Often a frank discussion led by management rather than decision analysts can be more effective. The final selection depends on management and engineering judgment and may include programmatic and organizational factors that are beyond the engineering checklist. The objective of engineering technology selection methods is to provide engineering information to assist management in making sound decisions. Project management and technology selection are assumed to use rational engineering analytic methods, but they often do not. The reason is that human insight, intuition, and “gut feel,” rather than logic, more frequently determine our decisions. Project selection and management are strongly influenced by nonrational psychological influences, which can produce unjustified confidence and determination. Nevertheless, there is a strong need for space projects to do rational project analysis and selection. Demonstrating a rational spirit is necessary for a scientific and technical organization. Professional ethics at its best requires an open, honest, and fair process, without damaging politics. Rational analysis can help improve good projects and avoid selecting bad ones. A sanity check using rational analysis guided by a checklist can help avoid egregious and damaging errors.

Jones, Harry W.↗

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won’t happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures.

Jones, Harry W.↗

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won't happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures

Jones, Harry W.↗

Increasing Pilot’s Understanding of Future Automation State – an Evaluation of an Automation State and Trajectory Prediction System

A pilot in the loop flight simulation study was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center to evaluate a trajectory prediction system. The trajectory prediction system computes a five-minute prediction of the lateral and vertical path of the aircraft given the current and intent state of the automation. The prediction is shown as a graphical representation so the pilots can form an accurate mental model of the future state. Otherwise, many automation changes and triggers are hidden from the flight crew or need to be consolidated to understand if a change will occur and the exact timing of the change. Varying dynamic conditions like deceleration can obscure the future trajectory and the ability to meet constraints, especially in the vertical dimension. Current flight deck indications of flight path assume constant conditions and do not adequately support the flight crew to make correct judgments regarding constraints. The study was conducted using ten commercial airline crews from multiple airlines, paired by airline to minimize procedural effects. Scenarios spanned a range of conditions that provided evaluation in a realistic environment with complex traffic and weather conditions. In particular, scenarios probed automation state and loss of state awareness. The technology was evaluated and contrasted with current state-of-the-art flight deck capabilities modeled from the Boeing 787. Objective and subjective data were collected from aircraft parameters, questionnaires, audio/video recordings, head/eye tracking data, and observations. This paper details findings about the trajectory prediction system including recommendations about further study.

Etherington, Timothy J.↗

Comparing Unstructured Adaptive Mesh Solutions for the High Lift Common Research Model Airfoil

Discretization error is a common source of uncertainty in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses. Traditional means of controlling discretization error through fixed-mesh refinement studies has proven to be difficult particularly when modeling complex geometries and flow fields. One reason for this is that mesh generation in today’s production CFD workflow is often a labor intensive process that is heavily dependent on user judgment. Unstructured mesh adaptation is known to be an efficient way to control discretization errors in CFD. Adaptive methods replace user based decision making with automated processes that optimize a mesh to reduce discretization error. This paper compares the application of multiple solution adaptive techniques in combination with multiple flow solvers to solve for the flow field about a 2D airfoil section of the NASA High-Lift Common Research Model (HL-CRM). By driving the adaptive mesh processes to a similar level of mesh convergence, the ability to achieve consistent results between multiple adaptive techniques and flow solvers is demonstrated. Mesh convergence for the various adaptive mesh approaches is compared identifying potential areas for improvement and providing mesh generation guidance for future workshops.

mesh adaptation high-lift 2D airfoil↗

Comparing Unstructured Adaptive Mesh Solutions for the High Lift Common Research Model Airfoil

Discretization error is a common source of uncertainty in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses. Traditional means of controlling discretization error through fixed-mesh refinement studies has proven to be difficult particularly when modeling complex geometries and flow fields. One reason for this is that mesh generation in today’s production CFD workflow is often a labor intensive process that is heavily dependent on user judgment. Unstructured mesh adaptation is known to be an efficient way to control discretization errors in CFD. Adaptive methods replace user based decision making with automated processes that optimize a mesh to reduce discretization error. This paper compares the application of multiple solution adaptive techniques in combination with multiple flow solvers to solve for the flow field about a 2D airfoil section of the NASA High-Lift Common Research Model (HL-CRM). By driving the adaptive mesh processes to a similar level of mesh convergence, the ability to achieve consistent results between multiple adaptive techniques and flow solvers is demonstrated. Mesh convergence for the various adaptive mesh approaches is compared identifying potential areas for improvement and providing mesh generation guidance for future workshops.

mesh adaptation↗

CFD 2030 Grand Challenge: CFD-in-the-Loop Monte Carlo Flight Simulation for Space Vehicle Design

Flight qualification of space vehicles is markedly different from those typically employed for aircraft. The concept of an extensive flight test campaign for a space vehicle does not exist, and vehicle designers must look to alternative techniques for demonstrating robust and reliable performance of their vehicles prior to operational flight. A space vehicle may undergo only a handful of flight tests in its development cycle, with each flight representing a drastically different flight phase or flight configuration. For instance, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft will only see a total of four flight demonstrations before flying a crew on its first operational mission, and each flight demonstrates a unique vehicle configuration and/or set of flight conditions. The SLS will be flown only one time before it becomes operational (Artemis 1). The Orion spacecraft Crew Module (CM) will have been tested twice, once on a Delta IV launch vehicle (Exploration Flight Test 1) and once as a fully integrated system with the SLS launch vehicle (Artemis 1). The Orion Launch abort system will have been tested twice, once in a pad abort scenario (Pad Abort 1) and once in an inflight abort scenario (Ascent Abort 2) on a modified Peacekeeper booster. Both of these latter tests involve only a boiler plate CM, not a functional Orion spacecraft. Thus, unlike aircraft, there is very little opportunity for engineers to assess and evaluate their preflight predictions. Instead, space vehicle designers rely on Monte Carlo flight simulations with detailed dispersions of predicted nominal flight behavior to determine how robust their design is to errors and uncertainties in the flight conditions their vehicle may encounter. These Monte Carlo analyses entail thousands of trajectory simulations to demonstrate that the vehicle can meet design requirements at a specified level of reliability. From an aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics perspective, these trajectory simulations are fueled by an extensive aerodynamic database that covers the complete range of expected flight conditions, vehicle configurations, and flight attitudes expected in a given mission. Today, these databases amount to a table of engineering parameters that can be quickly interrogated by the trajectory simulator. The aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic databases are assembled via a series of ground tests, empirical and analytical analysis, physics-based computational analysis, applicable past flight performance data, and in some cases, engineering judgment. These databases generally take years to assemble for a new space vehicle system and in the case of SLS/Orion, over a decade of test and analysis have been expended to develop the extensive databases required to cover the myriad of configurations and potential flight conditions required for the system. Recently, it has been proposed that Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and computing capability may be reaching a point where it is foreseeable that CFD could be integrated directly into the production trajectory simulation tools used to design NASA’s space vehicles. To demonstrate this, NASA has embarked on two demonstrations of this type of capability, one where six degree of freedom flight trajectory simulation equations are embedded in an existing CFD solver and another where a production CFD solver is loosely coupled with a production trajectory simulation tool. These efforts represent an initial demonstration of a future approach to flight trajectory simulation, but they are a far cry from the capability required to perform a full-up CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation. Therefore, this represents a viable grand challenge for computational methods addressing space vehicle design and development. The final paper/presentation will discuss the many hurdles, beyond simply raw computational power, to realizing this grand challenge and how they map directly to the CFD Vision 2030 ojectives. Among these are the wide range of flight conditions, including accelerating/decelerating flight, encountered by a space vehicle during launch and/or entry. The vehicle can also encounter numerous configuration changes, some of which can be quite drastic, during the course of its flight, so robust, automated geometry modeling, grid generation, and adaptation will play a huge role in reaching this goal. Multiply this by 1000’s of trajectory simulations occurring simultaneously in a given Monte Carlo analysis, and the problem readily scales to absorb virtually any size of supercomputer envisioned today. The concept of CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation poses a formidable challenge for emerging and future computing systems, and it has the potential to shave years off the development cycle for aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance predictions as compared to today’s space vehicle design approach.

CFD 2030↗

Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Hay-stack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. As part of the calibration process, certain areas in the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce. Over the years, Error Localization Algorithms (ELA) have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be effective for error localization. The paper will present several FEM example problems where ELA is used with simulated test data to determine FEM problem areas. For each example, the correct answer is shown along with ELA results. It is shown that the ELA process is able to identify general problem areas in the FEM, which are consistent with known model perturbations. However, in most cases the ELA identified area of improvement is larger than the true answer. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

error localization↗

Independent Analyses of Galveston QSF18 Social Survey

A set of independent analyses was performed of the findings of NASA’s QSF18 data collection exercise in Galveston, TX. These analyses included development of regression-based and other dosage-response relationships between the prevalence of annoyance with low-amplitude sonic booms and Perceived Level measures of single event and cumulative exposure. They also included detailed analyses of the effects of panelist attrition; of participation reminder messages sent to panelists; the ability to determine panelist locations at the time of exposure; and the effects of rattle and vibration on annoyance judgments, among other topics. The report summarizes the implications of its findings for the design of studies of community response to carpet booms created during future deployments of NASA’s X-59 aircraft, and recommends several design measures to improve the efficiency of data collection.

sonic boom↗