Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Likelihood Function”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Formation of Carbon Nanotube Based Gears: Quantum Chemistry and Molecular Mechanics Study of the Electrophilic Addition of o-Benzyne to Fullerenes, Graphene, and Nanotubes

Considerable progress has been made in recent years in chemical functionalization of fullerene molecules. In some cases, the predominant reaction products are different from those obtained (using the same reactants) from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). One such example is the cycloaddition of o-benzyne to C60. It is well established that benzyne adds across one of the rings in naphthalene, anthracene and other PAHs forming the [2+4] cycloaddition product (benzobicyclo[2.2.2.]-octatriene with naphthalene and triptycene with anthracene). However, Hoke et al demonstrated that the only reaction path for o-benzyne with C60 leads to the [2+2] cycloaddition product in which benzyne adds across one of the interpentagonal bonds (forming a cyclobutene ring in the process). Either reaction product results in a loss of aromaticity and distortion of the PAH or fullerene substrate, and in a loss of strain in the benzyne. It is not clear, however, why different products are preferred in these cases. In the current paper, we consider the stability of benzyne-nanotube adducts and the ability of Brenner's potential energy model to describe the structure and stability of these adducts. The Brenner potential has been widely used for describing diamondoid and graphitic carbon. Recently it has also been used for molecular mechanics and molecular dynamics simulations of fullerenes and nanotubes. However, it has not been tested for the case of functionalized fullerenes (especially with highly strained geometries). We use the Brenner potential for our companion nanogear simulations and believe that it should be calibrated to insure that those simulations are physically reasonable. In the present work, Density Functional theory (DFT) calculations are used to determine the preferred geometric structures and energetics for this calibration. The DFT method is a kind of ab initio quantum chemistry method for determining the electronic structure of molecules. For a given basis set expansion, it is comparable in accuracy to the MP2 method (better than Hartree Fock, but less accurate than more extensive electron correlation methods such as MP4 or CCSD). However, for systems with large numbers of basis functions it more efficient than any other methods that include electron correlation effects. In this presentation we show the results of DFT calculations for the reaction of benzyne with naphthalene, C60, and nanotube models. We compare energies for [2+2] and [2+4] cycloaddition products. The preferred products for the naphthalene and C60 reactions have been determined by experiment and, thus, these cases serve as a validation of our quantum chemical approach. We also compare the DFT and Brenner potential results. Finally we can predict the likelihood of reaction between benzyne and nanotubes.

Jaffe, Richard↗

Injury Potential Testing of Suited Occupants During Dynamic Spacecraft Flight Phases

In support of the Constellation Program, a space-suit architecture was envisioned for support of Launch, Entry, Abort, Micro-g EVA, Post Landing crew operations, and under emergency conditions, survival. This space suit architecture is unique in comparison to previous launch, entry, and abort (LEA) suit architectures in that it utilized rigid mobility elements in the scye and the upper arm regions. The suit architecture also employed rigid thigh disconnect elements to allow for quick disconnect functionality above the knee which allowed for commonality of the lower portion of the suit across two suit configurations. This suit architecture was designed to interface with the Orion seat subsystem, which includes seat components, lateral supports, and restraints. Due to this unique configuration of spacesuit mobility elements, combined with the need to provide occupant protection during dynamic landing events, risks were identified with potential injury due to the suit characteristics described above. To address the risk concerns, a test series was developed to evaluate the likelihood and consequences of these potential issues. Testing included use of Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs), Post Mortem Human Subjects (PMHS), and representative seat/suit hardware in combination with high linear acceleration events. The ensuing treatment focuses o detailed results of the testing that has ben conducted under this test series thus far.

McFarland, Shane M.↗

Injury Potential Testing of Suited Occupants During Dynamic Spacecraft Flight Phases

In support of the NASA Constellation Program, a space-suit architecture was envisioned for support of Launch, Entry, Abort, Micro-g EVA, Post Landing crew operations, and under emergency conditions, survival. This space suit architecture is unique in comparison to previous launch, entry, and abort (LEA) suit architectures in that it utilized rigid mobility elements in the scye and the upper arm regions. The suit architecture also employed rigid thigh disconnect elements to allow for quick disconnect functionality above the knee which allowed for commonality of the lower portion of the suit across two suit configurations. This suit architecture was designed to interface with the Orion seat subsystem, which includes seat components, lateral supports, and restraints. Due to this unique configuration of spacesuit mobility elements, combined with the need to provide occupant protection during dynamic landing events, risks were identified with potential injury due to the suit characteristics described above. To address the risk concerns, a test series was developed to evaluate the likelihood and consequences of these potential issues. Testing included use of Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs), Post Mortem Human Subjects (PMHS), and representative seat/suit hardware in combination with high linear acceleration events. The ensuing treatment focuses on detailed results of the testing that has been conducted under this test series thus far.

McFarland, Shane M.↗

SC-228 Inclusion of DAA Warning Alert for TCAS Interoperability

This white paper summarizes NASA research results that have informed Special Committee 228 (SC-228) discussions and decisions regarding the inclusion of a warning-level alert within the detect and avoid (DAA) alerting structure for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). For UAS, the removal of the pilot from onboard the aircraft has eliminated the ability of the ground-based pilot in command (PIC) to use out-the-window visual information to make judgments about a potential threat of a loss of well clear with another aircraft. As a result, the DAA traffic display will be the primary source of information that the PIC can use to execute the three primary well clear functions: 1) detect a potential loss of well clear, 2) determine a resolution maneuver, and 3) upload that maneuver to the aircraft via the ground control station (GCS). In addition, pilots are required to coordinate with air traffic control (ATC) prior to maneuvering off of their approved flight plan. In determining an appropriate resolution maneuver to avoid a loss of well clear, the PIC must decide both when and how to maneuver, and both the timeliness and the accuracy (i.e., correctness) of the maneuver are critical to reducing the likelihood and/or severity of a loss of well clear. Alerting information is one of three critical components of the DAA display, along with traffic information elements (e.g., relative heading, speed and altitude) and maneuver guidance. Alerting information and maneuver guidance, in particular, have been found to have a significant impact, both statistically and practically, on pilots' ability to avoid and minimize the severity of losses of well clear While all three display components are key to pilots performing the traffic avoidance task of remaining well clear, in general, alerting information provides crucial information about when a resolution maneuver is required while maneuver guidance assists the pilot in determining how best to maneuver. A fundamental task of the DAA alerting system is to provide critical timing information to the pilot about the potential for a loss of well clear with another aircraft. This is done by employing both temporal and spatial thresholds that indicate to the pilot the likelihood and imminence of a loss of well clear. The design of the DAA alerting thresholds is a balancing act between eliciting the desired pilot response in real loss of well clear threat events and reducing excessive, unnecessary, and/or uncoordinated UAS maneuvering within the air traffic environment; larger thresholds, both spatially and temporally, may increase the likelihood of a pilot avoiding a loss of well clear, but it can also increase the frequency of maneuvering - especially in cases where a maneuver is not actually needed to maintain well clear. A series of human in the loop (HITL) simulations have been conducted as part of NASA's Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) project. The purpose of these HITLs has been to provide empirical results in order to inform development of the minimum human-machine interface requirements for the DAA system. This white paper will present those results which provide evidence of a human performance benefit (in terms of response times and ability to remain well clear of other aircraft) of the DAA warning alert both with and without a collision avoidance system on board the aircraft.

TCAS interoperability↗

A Recommended Procedure for Estimating the Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameter of a Simple Power Law With Applications to Detector Design

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha-1 is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV. Two procedures for estimating alpha-1 the method of moments and maximum likelihood (ML), are developed and their statistical performance compared. It is concluded that the ML procedure attains the most desirable statistical properties and is hence the recommended statistical estimation procedure for estimating alpha-1. The ML procedure is then generalized for application to a set of real cosmic-ray data and thereby makes this approach applicable to existing cosmic-ray data sets. Several other important results, such as the relationship between collecting power and detector energy resolution, as well as inclusion of a non-Gaussian detector response function, are presented. These results have many practical benefits in the design phase of a cosmic-ray detector as they permit instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of one of the science objectives. This is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, a is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The Maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter alpha(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (P1) consistency (asymptotically unbiased). (P2) efficiency asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only he ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum-detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However. the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are attained in practice are investigated. The ML technique is then extended to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral parameter estimates based on the combination of data sets.

Howell, L. W.↗

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Howell, L. W., Jr.↗

Oxygen Compatibility Assessment of Components and Systems

Fire hazards are inherent in oxygen systems and a storied history of fires in rocket engine propulsion components exists. To detect and mitigate these fire hazards requires careful, detailed, and thorough analyses applied during the design process. The oxygen compatibility assessment (OCA) process designed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) can be used to determine the presence of fire hazards in oxygen systems and the likelihood of a fire. This process may be used as both a design guide and during the approval process to ensure proper design features and material selection. The procedure for performing an OCA is a structured step-by-step process to determine the most severe operating conditions; assess the flammability of the system materials at the use conditions; evaluate the presence and efficacy of ignition mechanisms; assess the potential for a fire to breach the system; and determine the reaction effect (the potential loss of life, mission, and system functionality as the result of a fire). This process should be performed for each component in a system. The results of each component assessment, and the overall system assessment, should be recorded in a report that can be used in the short term to communicate hazards and their mitigation and to aid in system/component development and, in the long term, to solve anomalies that occur during engine testing and operation.

Stoltzfus, Joel↗

Karhunen-Loeve Estimation of the Power Spectrum Parameters from the Angular Distribution of Galaxies in Early Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data

We present measurements of parameters of the three-dimensional power spectrum of galaxy clustering from 222 square degrees of early imaging data in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The projected galaxy distribution on the sky is expanded over a set of Karhunen-Loeve (KL) eigenfunctions, which optimize the signal-to-noise ratio in our analysis. A maximum likelihood analysis is used to estimate parameters that set the shape and amplitude of the three-dimensional power spectrum of galaxies in the SDSS magnitude-limited sample with r* less than 21. Our best estimates are gamma = 0.188 +/- 0.04 and sigma(sub 8L) = 0.915 +/- 0.06 (statistical errors only), for a flat universe with a cosmological constant. We demonstrate that our measurements contain signal from scales at or beyond the peak of the three-dimensional power spectrum. We discuss how the results scale with systematic uncertainties, like the radial selection function. We find that the central values satisfy the analytically estimated scaling relation. We have also explored the effects of evolutionary corrections, various truncations of the KL basis, seeing, sample size, and limiting magnitude. We find that the impact of most of these uncertainties stay within the 2 sigma uncertainties of our fiducial result.

Szalay, Alexander S.↗

Aircraft control surface failure detection and isolation using the OSGLR test

The performance of the orthogonal series generalized likelihood ratio (OSGLR) test in detecting and isolating commercial aircraft control surface and actuator failures is evaluated. A modification to incorporate age-weighting which significantly reduces the sensitivity of the algorithm to modeling errors is presented. The steady-state implementation of the algorithm based on a single linear model valid for a cruise flight condition is tested using a nonlinear aircraft simulation. A number of off-nominal no-failure flight conditions including maneuvers, nonzero flap deflections, different turbulence levels and steady winds were tested. Based on the no-failure decision functions produced by off-nominal flight conditions, the failure detection and isolation performance at the nominal flight condition was determined. The extension of the algorithm to a wider flight envelope by scheduling on dynamic pressure and flap deflection is examined. Based on this testing, the OSGLR algorithm should be capable of detecting control surface failures that would affect the safe operation of a commercial aircraft. Isolation may be difficult if there are several surfaces which produce similar effects on the aircraft. Extending the algorithm over the entire operating envelope of a commercial aircraft appears feasible.

Bonnice, W. F.↗

Simulation of Liquid Rocket Engine Failure Propagation Using Self-Evolving Scenarios

Traditional probabilistic risk assessment approaches often require failure scenarios to be explicitly defined through event sequences that are then quantified as part of the integrated analysis. This approach becomes difficult when failure propagation paths change as a function of the system operation. Additionally, if the propagation paths represent interactions among even a modest number of components, the scenario count becomes combinatorially intractable. This paper presents an alternate approach for quantifying the probability of failure propagation in such a case. Rather than explicitly defining scenario sequences, simple physical models are created for each of the components. In this way, only the physical states and rules of component interactions must be defined, rather than event sequences for each individual scenario. Initiating failures are introduced into the system, either randomly or as defined by relative likelihood, and the failures cascade through the system via the interaction rules. This process is repeated using Monte Carlo methods and, as a result, the most probable scenarios “self-evolve” in terms of both sequence path and frequency. This approach was applied to failures occurring in the engine compartment of a space launch vehicle with four liquid rocket engines and four high-pressure helium tanks. Each engine was modeled with key components, such as turbomachinery, combustion chamber, propellant lines, and additional support systems. Three test cases were conducted with different high-energy engine failures. End results of interest included an additional engine-out failure and tank burst, which represent the loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) failure environments, respectively. Observations show that almost every scenario outcome is unique and that many scenarios involve complex chain reactions that are difficult to predict. This validates the usefulness of the modeling approach in assessing the overall risks to the crew during a launch vehicle abort.

Rocket Engine↗

Hardware Implementation of Serially Concatenated PPM Decoder

A prototype decoder for a serially concatenated pulse position modulation (SCPPM) code has been implemented in a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). At the time of this reporting, this is the first known hardware SCPPM decoder. The SCPPM coding scheme, conceived for free-space optical communications with both deep-space and terrestrial applications in mind, is an improvement of several dB over the conventional Reed-Solomon PPM scheme. The design of the FPGA SCPPM decoder is based on a turbo decoding algorithm that requires relatively low computational complexity while delivering error-rate performance within approximately 1 dB of channel capacity. The SCPPM encoder consists of an outer convolutional encoder, an interleaver, an accumulator, and an inner modulation encoder (more precisely, a mapping of bits to PPM symbols). Each code is describable by a trellis (a finite directed graph). The SCPPM decoder consists of an inner soft-in-soft-out (SISO) module, a de-interleaver, an outer SISO module, and an interleaver connected in a loop (see figure). Each SISO module applies the Bahl-Cocke-Jelinek-Raviv (BCJR) algorithm to compute a-posteriori bit log-likelihood ratios (LLRs) from apriori LLRs by traversing the code trellis in forward and backward directions. The SISO modules iteratively refine the LLRs by passing the estimates between one another much like the working of a turbine engine. Extrinsic information (the difference between the a-posteriori and a-priori LLRs) is exchanged rather than the a-posteriori LLRs to minimize undesired feedback. All computations are performed in the logarithmic domain, wherein multiplications are translated into additions, thereby reducing complexity and sensitivity to fixed-point implementation roundoff errors. To lower the required memory for storing channel likelihood data and the amounts of data transfer between the decoder and the receiver, one can discard the majority of channel likelihoods, using only the remainder in operation of the decoder. This is accomplished in the receiver by transmitting only a subset consisting of the likelihoods that correspond to time slots containing the largest numbers of observed photons during each PPM symbol period. The assumed number of observed photons in the remaining time slots is set to the mean of a noise slot. In low background noise, the selection of a small subset in this manner results in only negligible loss. Other features of the decoder design to reduce complexity and increase speed include (1) quantization of metrics in an efficient procedure chosen to incur no more than a small performance loss and (2) the use of the max-star function that allows sum of exponentials to be computed by simple operations that involve only an addition, a subtraction, and a table lookup. Another prominent feature of the design is a provision for access to interleaver and de-interleaver memory in a single clock cycle, eliminating the multiple clock-cycle latency characteristic of prior interleaver and de-interleaver designs.

Moision, Bruce↗

Examining Microbial Survival During Infall onto Europa: An Important Limit on the Origin of Potential European Life

Previous work shows that transfer of material from Earth to Europa is statistically possible, opening the question of whether terrestrial biota may have transferred to Europa to populate that world. Transfer of viable organisms is a function of parameters such as ejection shock, radiation exposure, and others, applied across four phases in the transfer process: ejection from the parent body, transport through interplanetary space, infall onto the target world, and biological adaptation. If terrestrial biota could survive transport to Europa, then biology on Europa may be either the product of a separate and unrelated origin or they are the descendants of transferred terrestrial organisms. If, however, transfer of viable organisms is impossible, then any biota present on Europa must be the product of a biological origin independent from terrestrial life. We will investigate the survival likelihood of material falling onto Europa.

Fries, M.↗

Programmer's manual for MMLE3, a general FORTRAN program for maximum likelihood parameter estimation

The MMLE3 is a maximum likelihood parameter estimation program capable of handling general bilinear dynamic equations of arbitrary order with measurement noise and/or state noise (process noise). The basic MMLE3 program is quite general and, therefore, applicable to a wide variety of problems. The basic program can interact with a set of user written problem specific routines to simplify the use of the program on specific systems. A set of user routines for the aircraft stability and control derivative estimation problem is provided with the program. The implementation of the program on specific computer systems is discussed. The structure of the program is diagrammed, and the function and operation of individual routines is described. Complete listings and reference maps of the routines are included on microfiche as a supplement. Four test cases are discussed; listings of the input cards and program output for the test cases are included on microfiche as a supplement.

Maine, R. E.↗

A knowledge-based system design/information tool for aircraft flight control systems

Research aircraft have become increasingly dependent on advanced electronic control systems to accomplish program goals. These aircraft are integrating multiple disciplines to improve performance and satisfy research objective. This integration is being accomplished through electronic control systems. Systems design methods and information management have become essential to program success. The primary objective of the system design/information tool for aircraft flight control is to help transfer flight control system design knowledge to the flight test community. By providing all of the design information and covering multiple disciplines in a structured, graphical manner, flight control systems can more easily be understood by the test engineers. This will provide the engineers with the information needed to thoroughly ground test the system and thereby reduce the likelihood of serious design errors surfacing in flight. The secondary object is to apply structured design techniques to all of the design domains. By using the techniques in the top level system design down through the detailed hardware and software designs, it is hoped that fewer design anomalies will result. The flight test experiences are reviewed of three highly complex, integrated aircraft programs: the X-29 forward swept wing; the advanced fighter technology integration (AFTI) F-16; and the highly maneuverable aircraft technology (HiMAT) program. Significant operating technologies, and the design errors which cause them, is examined to help identify what functions a system design/informatin tool should provide to assist designers in avoiding errors.

Mackall, Dale A.↗

A knowledge-based system design/information tool for aircraft flight control systems

Research aircraft have become increasingly dependent on advanced control systems to accomplish program goals. These aircraft are integrating multiple disciplines to improve performance and satisfy research objectives. This integration is being accomplished through electronic control systems. Because of the number of systems involved and the variety of engineering disciplines, systems design methods and information management have become essential to program success. The primary objective of the system design/information tool for aircraft flight control system is to help transfer flight control system design knowledge to the flight test community. By providing all of the design information and covering multiple disciplines in a structured, graphical manner, flight control systems can more easily be understood by the test engineers. This will provide the engineers with the information needed to thoroughly ground test the system and thereby reduce the likelihood of serious design errors surfacing in flight. The secondary objective is to apply structured design techniques to all of the design domains. By using the techniques in the top level system design down through the detailed hardware and software designs, it is hoped that fewer design anomalies will result. The flight test experiences of three highly complex, integrated aircraft programs are reviewed: the X-29 forward-swept wing, the advanced fighter technology integration (AFTI) F-16, and the highly maneuverable aircraft technology (HiMAT) program. Significant operating anomalies and the design errors which cause them, are examined to help identify what functions a system design/information tool should provide to assist designers in avoiding errors.

Mackall, Dale A.↗

Methodology Development for Assessment of Spaceport Technology Returns and Risks

As part of Kennedy Space Center's (KSC's) challenge to open the space frontier, new spaceport technologies must be developed, matured and successfully transitioned to operational systems. R&D investment decisions can be considered from multiple perspectives. Near mid and far term technology horizons must be understood. Because a multitude of technology investment opportunities are available, we must identify choices that promise the greatest likelihood of significant lifecycle At the same time, the costs and risks of any choice must be well understood and balanced against its potential returns The problem is not one of simply rank- ordering projects in terms of their desirability. KSC wants to determine a portfolio of projects that simultaneously satisfies multiple goals, such as getting the biggest bang for the buck, supporting projects that may be too risky for private funding, staying within annual budget cycles without foregoing the requirements of a long term technology vision, and ensuring the development of a diversity of technologies that, support the variety of operational functions involved in space transportation. This work aims to assist in the development of in methods and techniques that support strategic technology investment decisions and ease the process of determining an optimal portfolio of spaceport R&D investments. Available literature on risks and returns to R&D is reviewed and most useful pieces are brought to the attention of the Spaceport Technology Development Office (STDO). KSC's current project management procedures are reviewed. It is found that the "one size fits all" nature of KSC's existing procedures and project selection criteria is not conducive to prudent decision-making. Directions for improving KSC's - procedures and criteria are outlined. With help of a contractor, STDO is currently developing a tool, named Change Management Analysis Tool (CMAT)/ Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT), to assist KSC's R&D portfolio determination. A critical review of CMAT/PAT is undertaken. Directions for the improvement of this tool are provided. STDO and KSC intend to follow up on many, if not all, of the recommendations provided.

Joglekar, Prafulla↗

Strategies for Quantifying Human Space Flight Performance in the Crew Health and Performance System

The Crew Health and Performance-Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team at NASA Glenn Research Center is planning a customized approach to quantify human spaceflight performance changes with respect to changes to the CHP system functions and capabilities. Using the Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) initiated by NASA’s Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) [1], the team is surveying potential candidate models and novel strategies that generate metrics suitable for supporting decision making related to how the CHP system may influence human system performance risk. One such investigation includes classic Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. Traditionally, HRA methods estimate the occurrence of human errors and their impact on the success of an activity when designing and operating a system. While humans perceive, interpret, decide on, and carry out a course of action, the factors affecting performance and error likelihood are commonly referred to as performance shaping factors (PSFs). Originally developed to alleviate safety concerns related to nuclear power plant operations, HRA methods such as THERP [2] and CREAM [3] dismantle an activity into tasks, requiring elemental steps to be executed, and assess their failure due to predefined PSFs. In this study, we compare generic HRA methods and those that incorporate some human spaceflight aspects, such as sleep conditions (SCREAM [4]), with respect to how they may be adopted to capture performance with an intention to mitigate detrimental outcomes elucidated by the HSRB DAGs. We suggest strategies to quantify astronaut performance specific to spaceflight activities and illustrate how such concepts may help in optimizing the CHP system capabilities with respect to Artemis missions.

dag↗