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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m −2 ) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ∼6000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 350 g m −2 ), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ∼4000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 275 g m −2 ), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m −2 and R 2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of Dielectric Constant in Series of Polymers by Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR)

This work is devoted to the investigation of dielectric permittivity which is influenced by electronic, ionic, and dipolar polarization mechanisms, contributing to the material’s capacity to store electrical energy. In this study, an extended dataset of 86 polymers was analyzed, and two quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models were developed to predict dielectric permittivity. From an initial set of 1273 descriptors, the most relevant ones were selected using a genetic algorithm, and machine learning models were built using the Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR). In contrast to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)- and Partial Least Squares (PLS)-based models, the gradient boosting models excel in handling nonlinear relationships and multicollinearity, iteratively optimizing decision trees to improve accuracy without overfitting. The developed GBR models showed high R2 coefficients of 0.938 and 0.822, for the training and test sets, respectively. An Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) technique was applied to assess the relationship between the selected descriptors—eight for the GB_A model and six for the GB_B model, and their impact on target property. ALE analysis revealed that descriptors such as TDB09m had a strong positive effect on permittivity, while MLOGP2 showed a negative effect. These results highlight the effectiveness of the GBR approach in predicting the dielectric properties of polymers, offering improved accuracy and interpretability.

Ascencio-Medina, Estefania↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Morphological Model to Separate Resolved–Unresolved Sources in the DESI Legacy Surveys: Application in the LS4 Alert Stream

Separating resolved and unresolved sources in large imaging surveys is a fundamental step to enable downstream science, such as searching for extragalactic transients in wide-field time-domain surveys. Here we present our method to effectively separate point sources from the resolved, extended sources in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Surveys (LS). We develop a supervised machine learning model based on the Gradient Boosting algorithm XGBoost. The features input to the model are purely morphological and are derived from the tabulated LS data products. We train the model using ∼2 × 10 5 LS sources in the COSMOS field with HST morphological labels and evaluate the model performance on LS sources with spectroscopic classification from the DESI Data Release 1 (∼2 × 10 7 objects) and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 17 (∼3 × 10 6 objects), as well as on ∼2 × 10 8 Gaia stars. A significant fraction of LS sources are not observed in every LS filter, and we therefore build a “Hybrid” model as a linear combination of two XGBoost models, each containing features combining aperture flux measurements from the “blue” (gr) and “red” (iz) filters. The Hybrid model shows a reasonable balance between sensitivity and robustness, and achieves higher accuracy and flexibility compared to the LS morphological typing. With the Hybrid model, we provide classification scores for ∼3 × 10 9 LS sources, making this the largest ever machine learning catalog separating resolved and unresolved sources. The catalog has been incorporated into the real-time pipeline of the La Silla Schmidt Southern Survey (LS4), enabling the identification of extragalactic transients within the LS4 alert stream.

astrostatistics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density Functional Tight-Binding Models for Band Structures of Transition-Metal Alloys and Surfaces across the d -Block

First-principles electronic structure simulations are an invaluable tool for understanding chemical bonding and reactions. While machine-learning models such as interatomic potentials significantly accelerate the exploration of potential energy surfaces, electronic structure information is generally lost. Particularly in the field of heterogeneous catalysis, simulated electron band structures provide fundamental insights into catalytic reactivity. This ab initio knowledge is preserved in semiempirical methods such as density functional tight binding (DFTB), which extend the accessible computational length and time scales beyond first-principles approaches. In this paper here we present Shell-Optimized Atomic Confinement (SOAC) DFTB electronic-part-only parametrizations for bulk and surface band structures of all d-block transition metals that enable efficient predictions of electronic descriptors for large structures or high-throughput studies on complex systems outside the computational reach of density functional theory.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational epidemiological tools for pandemic analysis, understanding, and response

This suite of software tools is being developed to enhance and analyze computational epidemiological models that incorporate realistic disease dynamics and human behavior, with the goal of supporting epidemic and pandemic response. Specifically, the tools enable data analysis, feature extraction, data synthesis, machine learning model development, and prediction of key public health outcomes, such as cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and behavioral responses, for airborne infectious diseases like COVID-19 and influenza.

Butts, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

GrainPaint: A multi-scale diffusion-based generative model for microstructure reconstruction of large-scale objects

Simulation-based approaches to microstructure generation can suffer from a variety of limitations, such as high memory usage, long computational times, and difficulties in generating complex geometries. Generative machine learning models present a way around these issues, but they have previously been limited by the fixed size of their generation area. Here, we present a new microstructure generation methodology leveraging advances in inpainting using denoising diffusion models to overcome this generation area limitation. We show that microstructures generated with the presented methodology are statistically similar to grain structures generated with a kinetic Monte Carlo simulator, SPPARKS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Adsorption and Reactions at Aqueous Oxide Interfaces with Neural Network Potential Molecular Dynamics

Chemical processes at metal oxide−water interfaces are of central importance in geochemistry, biology, and energy technologies. A better understanding of these processes would allow us to make a significant step toward optimizing and controlling them, which could in turn lead to broader impacts. Computational modeling is indispensable to accomplishing this task because complexity and disorder often make it difficult to extract atomistic information from experiments. Balancing computational cost and accuracy, simulation schemes based on efficient machine learning representations of the potential energy surface (PES) predicted by ab initio calculations have become increasingly popular over the past decade. In particular, several studies have demonstrated the ability of machine learning models to accurately reproduce the complex ab initio PESs of aqueous oxide interfaces, allowing simulations of systems and processes that are not accessible with ab initio methods. In this Account, we review our recent efforts to understand adsorption processes and reactions at aqueous oxide interfaces using deep potential molecular dynamics (DPMD), a simulation scheme employing deep neural networks (DNNs), which has proven to be quite successful in accurately describing many different systems in the condensed phase. After summarizing the DPMD methodology, we first review our work on the acid−base chemistry of oxide surfaces in contact with water, a fundamental characteristic that controls proton transfer and surface charge at the interface. We focus on the aqueous interface of rutile IrO 2 , an oxide material thus far considered the best catalyst for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). We show that this interface is characterized by a large fraction of dissociated water and a strong Brønsted acidity of the surface sites, in good agreement with the experimentally measured value of the point of zero proton charge. In our second example, we investigate how the adsorption of organic species from ambient air or water affects the structure and wettability of the aqueous interfaces of TiO 2 , a prototypical photocatalytic material. This is a question that is relevant to understanding the UV-induced hydrophilicity of TiO 2 surfaces, a property at the basis of self-cleaning windows and related applications. Specifically focusing on formic and acetic acids, the two most common atmospheric organic acids, our simulations reveal that these acids control the wettability of TiO 2 largely through acid−base chemistry at the interface rather than chemisorption on the oxide surface, a finding that could help improve the design of self-cleaning surfaces and photocatalytic devices. Finally, we review our recent study of methanol at TiO 2 −water interfaces, a system whose interest is largely motivated by the role of methanol in enhancing photocatalytic hydrogen evolution on TiO 2 . Our simulations provide mechanistic insights into the coupled roles of the organic adsorbate and water at the TiO 2 interface, with implications for how methanol enhances the activity of H 2 evolution.

adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Reasoner Based on Bayes Risk for Damage Detection in Structural Systems

Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are used to inform operation of structural systems subject to loads and environments that may affect their integrity. SHM systems rely on continuous monitoring of the structure to determine its health state. These systems are often coupled with a model of the deployed structure to determine the consequences of changes in the system by forecasting the response to future states. These models, which may be thought of as digital twins, need to be updated to reflect the latest state of the structural system. This work makes use of an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input space to determine deviations from the training data input space distributions. This workflow enables domain shift detection to determine whether damage is present in the structure. The uncertainty metrics generated by this network are then used in a Bayes risk framework to design an optimal damage detector given cost and risk considerations. The approach is demonstrated on a computational example with simulated damage.

Najera-Flores, David [ATA Engineering, Inc.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

A foundation model for non-destructive defect identification from vibrational spectra

Defects are ubiquitous in solids and strongly influence materials’ functional properties. However, non-destructive characterization and quantification of defects, especially when multiple types coexist, remain a long-standing challenge. Here, we introduce DefectNet, a foundation machine learning model that predicts the chemical identity and concentration of substitutional point defects with multiple coexisting elements directly from vibrational spectra, specifically phonon density-of-states (PDoS). Trained on over 16,000 simulated spectra from 2,000 semiconductors, DefectNet employs a tailored attention mechanism to identify up to six distinct defect elements at concentrations ranging from 0.2% to 25%. The model generalizes well to unseen crystals across 56 elements and can be fine-tuned on experimental data. Validation using inelastic scattering measurements of SiGe alloys and MgB 2 superconductor demonstrates its accuracy and transferability. Furthermore, our work establishes vibrational spectroscopy as a viable, non-destructive probe for bulk point defect quantification, and highlights the promise of foundation models in data-driven defect engineering.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Natural Language Processing and Generative Models in Molecular Chemistry: Property Prediction and Novel Compound Generation

The accurate prediction of molecular properties is important for the rational design and the advancement of green chemistry and sustainable materials research. However, the predictive power of traditional computational chemistry methods is limited due to computational restrictions. Here, in this study, we examine an alternative approach to the accurate prediction of properties of organic compounds: natural language processing (NLP)-based molecular embedding. Using viscosity, partition coefficient (log P), and enthalpy of vaporization as test properties through a survey of comprehensive datasets comprising 5695 data points for viscosity, 25 870 data points for log P, and 2296 data points for enthalpy of vaporization. These are important properties for the design of greener, safer, and sustainable chemical processes. Models were trained using NLP methods such as Mol2vec and fine-tuned ChemBERTa, and results were compared with traditional input featurization techniques such as Morgan fingerprints and quantum chemistry derived sigma profiles and DFT features. Among the various machine learning models, Mol2vec demonstrated superior predictive capabilities, achieving the highest correlation coefficient (R 2 = 0.945) and lowest RMSE (0.106 mPa s) for viscosity, as well as high accuracy for log P and enthalpy of vaporization predictions. These findings establish the Mol2vec featurization technique, graph-convolutional neural networks (GCNN), and fine-tuned ChemBERTa model as powerful tools for predictive modeling of organic compounds properties, offering a significant improvement over previously used featurization techniques and opening up strategies for very-high-throughput computational screening. Finally, we integrated ML models with hybrid language-model-based generative adversarial networks (LM-GAN) to generate novel molecular sequences with desirable properties for different research applications. The ability to computationally design solvents with lower viscosity, lower log P, and lower enthalpy of vaporization offers a data-driven route to accelerating the discovery of sustainable alternatives to traditionally toxic solvents.

ChemBERTa↗
DOE OSTI2025

A machine-learning approach to measure 3D sample properties from 2D Transmission Electron Microscopy images

Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) is a powerful tool for the characterization of materials at the nanoscale; however, its inherent two-dimensional (2D) nature poses significant challenges to accurately measure three-dimensional (3D) properties. We introduce a supervised machine-learning model that predicts 3D structural information, such as sample thickness and curvature, from a series of conventional 2D TEM images. The model, a U-Net convolutional neural network, is trained on a large synthetic dataset generated from dynamical diffraction simulations that model TEM’s complex, nonlinear image formation, accounting for sample thickness and curvature. This physically realistic framework enables exploration of a broad parameter space impractical to sample experimentally. We demonstrate that the trained model has accurate predictions for experimental single-crystal silicon samples, achieving performance comparable to established measurement techniques. This work highlights the critical role of robust, simulation-based training in overcoming the limitations of real-world imaging artifacts and inconsistent sample geometries. By integrating machine learning with numerical simulations, we offer an efficient and scalable framework for quantitative TEM analysis, paving the way for more sophisticated 3D characterization of complex materials.

Dynamical diffraction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyperplane decision trees as piecewise linear surrogate models for chemical process design

Recent trends in chemical engineering research point towards an increasing reliance on data-driven modeling approaches. Neural networks, for instance, have proven to be accurate when data is plentiful and high-dimensional, but in many cases, they require computationally-intensive training procedures. Here, in this work, we describe hyperplane decision trees (HT) as a highly expressive and low-compute machine learning model architecture. These models are locally linear and have linear decision boundaries, resulting in a piecewise linear model of the data. This property allows them to be converted into mixed-integer linear constraints which can be globally optimized. Our open-source PyTorch implementation of this method is a fast, flexible, and accessible way to build accurate piecewise linear models of data.

Decision trees↗
NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Air Quality Forecasting Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model.We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry.This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Geophysical Observations Toolkit For Evaluating Coral Health (GOTECH) Fall 2021 Final Report

The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Data Science Team (DST), under the Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO), is investigating the capacity of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite to infer the vitality of coral reefs. This report describes the Fall 2021 period of performance for the Geophysical Observations Toolkit for Evaluating Coral Health (GOTECH) project. During this effort, two student teams at Georgia Tech developed machine-learning models to predict the vitality of coral reefs in targeted geographic regions based on backscatter data from the CALIPSO satellite. To train these models, students fused data to form a common operating picture of how coral reefs have grown and decayed worldwide. This report describes the student assignment, background, and results of the semester's research.

Machine Learning↗