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Transportation Systems Analyses (TSA): Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST). A preliminary programmatic assessment

This report overviews the strategic implications of the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) program. The analysis postulates the anticipated HRST market (window is 2006-30, with a 2015 focus). Next the analysis speculates on market 'price of entry' for several potential markets. HRST is envisioned as a NASA overlay to either the STS modernization or the on-going RLV initiative. Three NASA options are reviewed. An example HRST program (MagLifter + RBCC RLV) is assessed in terms of financial/political issues. The merits of HRST-vs-RLV are briefly examined. Finally, a Small Launch Vehicle (SLV) HRST application is reviewed.

Duffey, Jack↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 60: Culture and Workplace Communications: A Comparison of the Technical Communications Practices of Japanese and US Aerospace Engineers and Scientists

The advent of global markets elevates the role and importance of culture as a mitigating factor in the diffusion of knowledge and technology and in product and process innovation. This is especially true in the Large Commercial Aircraft (LCA) sector where the production and market aspects are becoming increasingly international. As firms expand beyond their national borders, using such methods as risk- sharing partnerships, joint ventures, outsourcing, and alliances, they have to contend with national and corporate cultures. Our focus is on Japan, a 'program participant' in the production of the Boeing Company's 777; the influence of Japanese culture on the diffusion of knowledge and technology in aerospace at the national and international levels; those cultural determinants-the propensity to work together, a willingness to subsume individual interests to a greater good, and an emphasis on consensual decisionmaking-that have a direct bearing on the ability of Japanese firms to form alliances and compete in international markets; and those cultural determinants thought to influence the information- seeking behaviors and workplace communication practices of Japanese aerospace engineers and scientists. In this paper, we report selective results from a survey of Japanese and U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists that focused on workplace communications. Data are presented for the following topics: importance of and time spent communicating information, collaborative writing, need for an undergraduate course in technical communication, use of libraries, use and importance of electronic (computer) networks, and the use and importance of foreign and domestically produced technical reports.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 64: Culture and Workplace Communications: A Comparison of the Technical Communications Practices of Japanese and US Aerospace Engineers and Scientists

The advent of global markets elevates the role and importance of culture as a mitigating factor in the diffusion of knowledge and technology and in product and process innovation. This is especially true in the large commercial aircraft (LCA) sector where the production and market aspects are becoming increasingly international. As firms expand beyond their national borders, using such methods as risk-sharing partnerships, joint ventures, outsourcing, and alliances, they have to contend with national and corporate cultures. Our focus is on Japan, a program participant in the production of the Boeing Company's 777. The aspects of Japanese culture and workplace communications will be examined: 1.) the influence of Japanese culture on the diffusion of knowledge and technology in aerospace at the national and international levels; 2.) those cultural determinants-the propensity to work together, a willingness to subsume individual interests to a greater good, and an emphasis on consensual decision making-that have a direct bearing on the ability of Japanese firms to form alliances and compete in international markets; 3.) and those cultural determinants thought to influence the information-seeking behaviors and workplace communication practices of Japanese aerospace engineers and scientists. In this article, we report selective results from a survey of Japanese and U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists that focused on workplace communications. Data are presented for the following topics: importance of and time spent communicating information, collaborative writing, need for an undergraduate course in technical communication, use of libraries, use and importance of electronic (computer) networks, and the use and importance of foreign and domestically produced technical reports.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

Bantam System Technology Project Ground System Operations Concept and Plan

The Low Cost Booster Technology Program, also known as the Bantam Booster program, is a NASA sponsored initiative to establish a viable commercial technology to support the market for placing small payloads in low earth orbit. This market is currently served by large boosters which orbit a number of small payloads on a single launch vehicle, or by these payloads taking up available space on major commercial launches. Even by sharing launch costs, the minimum cost to launch one of these small satellites is in the 6 to 8 million dollar range. Additionally, there is a shortage of available launch opportunities which can be shared in this manner. The goal of the Bantam program is to develop two competing launch vehicles, with launch costs in the neighborhood of 1.5 million dollars to launch a 150 kg payload into low earth orbit (200 nautical mile sun synchronous). Not only could the cost of the launch be significantly less than the current situation, but the payload sponsor could expect better service for his expenditure, the ability to specify his own orbit, and a dedicated vehicle. By developing two distinct launch vehicles, market forces are expected to aid in keeping customer costs low.

Moon, Jesse M.↗

Culture and Workplace Communications: A Comparison of the Technical Communications Practices of Japanese and U.S. Aerospace Engineers and Scientists

The advent of global markets elevates the role and importance of culture as a mitigating factor in the diffusion of knowledge and technology and in product and process innovation. This is especially true in the large commercial aircraft (LCA) sector where the production and market aspects are becoming increasingly international. As firms expand beyond their national borders, using such methods as risk-sharing partnerships, joint ventures, outsourcing, and alliances, they have to contend with national and corporate cultures. Our focus is on Japan, a program participant in the production of the Boeing Company's 777. The aspects of Japanese culture and workplace communications will be examined: (1) the influence of Japanese culture on the diffusion of knowledge and technology in aerospace at the national and international levels; (2) those cultural determinants-the propensity to work together, a willingness to subsume individual interests to a greater good, and an emphasis on consensual decision making-that have a direct bearing on the ability of Japanese firms to form alliances and compete in international markets; (3) and those cultural determinants thought to influence the information-seeking behaviors and workplace communication practices of Japanese aerospace engineers and scientists. In this article, we report selective results from a survey of Japanese and U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists that focused on workplace communications. Data are presented for the following topics: importance of and time spent communicating information, collaborative writing, need for an undergraduate course in technical communication, use of libraries, use and importance of electronic (computer) networks, and the use and importance of foreign and domestically produced technical reports.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

Fiber Pulling Apparatus

The fiber optics industry has grown into a multi-billion marketplace that will continue to grow into the 21st century. Optical fiber communications is currently dominated by silica glass technology. Successful efforts to improve upon the low loss transmission characteristics of silica fibers have propelled the technology into the forefront of the communications industry. However, reaching the theoretical transmission capability of silica fiber through improved processing has still left a few application areas in which other fiber systems can provide an influential role due to specific characteristics of high theoretical transmission in the 2 - 3 micron wavelength region. One of the other major materials used for optical fibers is the systems based upon Heavy Metal Fluoride Glass (HMFG). Commercial interest is driven primarily by the potential for low loss repeaterless infrared fibers. An example of the major communications marketplace which would benefit from the long distance repeaterless capability of infrared fibers is the submarine cables which link the continents. When considering commercial interests, optical fiber systems provide a healthy industrial position which continues to expand. Major investments in the systems used for optical fiber communications have continued to increase each year and are predicted to continue well into the next century. Estimates of 8.5% compounded annually are predicted through 1999 for the North American market and 1 1 % worldwide. The growth for the optical fiber cable itself is expected to continue between 44 and 50 per cent of the optical fiber communications budget through 1999. The total budget in 1999 world-wide is expected to be in the neighborhood of $9 billion. Another survey predicts that long haul telecommunications represents 15% of a world-wide fiber optics market in 1998. The actual amount allotted to cable was not specified. However, another market research had predicted that the cable costs alone represents more than 50% of the total budget each year through 1998. A newly emerging activity is the commercial development of doped optical fibers which can be pumped by laser diodes to provide amplification of the communication signals. This technology is newly emerging and will be developed for commercial interests in the United States by Galileo Electro-optical Incorporated in Sturbridge, MA on a license from British Telecom. Long repeaterless communication links provide the biggest stimulus for this technology. As an example of the of the revenues involved in the optical fiber communications 3 industry, the current trade journal lists that for the fiscal years, 1991 - 1994, 185 separate undersea links were established. In addition, another 105 links are planned through 1998. The distribution of revenues involved in the undersea installations is roughly $8.5 billion through 1993 and another $13 billion planned through 1998. A large portion of the future activity (34%) is planned for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Region. Other examples of the commercial utility of optical fiber networks is given in a recent scientific symposium in which the outlook for HMFG infrared fiber was determined to be very bright.Another area of interest lies in the use of fiber optics for laser surgery delivery systems.

Workman, Gary L.↗

Engine Technology Challenges for the High-Speed Civil Transport Plane

Ongoing NASA-funded and privately funded studies continue to indicate that an opportunity exists for a second generation supersonic commercial airliner, or High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT), to become a key part of the 21 st century international air transportation system. Long distance air travel is projected to be the fastest growing segment of the air transportation market by the turn of the century with increases at about 5 percent per annum over the next two decades. This projection suggests that by the year 2015, more than 600,000 passengers per day will be traveling long distances, predominantly over water. These routes would provide the greatest potential for an HSCT to become a significant part of the international air transportation system. The potential market for an HSCT is currently projected to be anywhere from 500-1500 aircraft over the 2005-2030 time period. Such an aircraft fleet size would represent a considerable share of the potential long-range aircraft market. However, this projected HSCT fleet can become a reality only if technologies are developed which will allow an HSCT design that is (1) environmentally compatible and (2) economically viable. Simply stated, the HSCT will be a technology driven airplane. Without significant advances in airframe and propulsion technologies over the levels currently available, there will be no second generation supersonic airliner! This paper will briefly describe the propulsion technology challenges which must be met prior to any product launch decision being made by industry and the progress toward meeting these challenges through NASAs High-Speed Research (HSR) Program, a partnership between NASA and Boeing, General Electric and Pratt & Whitney.

Plencner, Robert M.↗

Benefits of Government Incentives for Reusable Launch Vehicle Development

Many exciting new opportunities in space, both government missions and business ventures, could be realized by a reduction in launch prices. Reusable launch vehicle (RLV) designs have the potential to lower launch costs dramatically from those of today's expendable and partially-expendable vehicles. Unfortunately, governments must budget to support existing launch capability, and so lack the resources necessary to completely fund development of new reusable systems. In addition, the new commercial space markets are too immature and uncertain to motivate the launch industry to undertake a project of this magnitude and risk. Low-cost launch vehicles will not be developed without a mature market to service; however, launch prices must be reduced in order for a commercial launch market to mature. This paper estimates and discusses the various benefits that may be reaped from government incentives for a commercial reusable launch vehicle program.

Shaw, Eric J.↗

Macroeconomic Benefits of Low-Cost Reusable Launch Vehicles

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated its Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Technology Program to provide information on the technical and commercial feasibility of single-stage to orbit (SSTO), fully-reusable launchers. Because RLVs would not depend on expendable hardware to achieve orbit, they could take better advantage of economies of scale than expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) that discard costly hardware on ascent. The X-33 experimental vehicle, a sub-orbital, 60%-scale prototype of Lockheed Martin's VentureStar SSTO RLV concept, is being built by Skunk Works for a 1999 first flight. If RLVs achieve prices to low-earth orbit of less than $1000 US per pound, they could hold promise for eliciting an elastic response from the launch services market. As opposed to the capture of existing market, this elastic market would represent new space-based industry businesses. These new opportunities would be created from the next tier of business concepts, such as space manufacturing and satellite servicing, that cannot earn a profit at today's launch prices but could when enabled by lower launch costs. New business creation contributes benefits to the US Government (USG) and the US economy through increases in tax revenues and employment. Assumptions about the costs and revenues of these new ventures, based on existing space-based and aeronautics sector businesses, can be used to estimate the macroeconomic benefits provided by new businesses. This paper examines these benefits and the flight prices and rates that may be required to enable these new space industries.

Shaw, Eric J.↗

Effectiveness of Loan Guarantees versus Tax Incentives for Space Launch Ventures

Over the course of the past few years, several new and innovative fully or partiailly reusable launch vehicle designs have been initiated with the objective of reducing the cost of space transportation. These new designs are in various stages hardware development for technology and system demonstrators. The larger vehicles include the Lockheed Martin X-33 technology demonstrator for VentureStar and the Space Access launcher. The smaller launcher ventures include Kelly Space and Technology and Rotary Rocket Company. A common denominator between the new large and small commercial launch systems is the ability to obtain project financing and at an affordable cost. Both are having or will have great difficulty in obtaining financing in the capital markets because of the dollar amounts and the risk involved. The large established companies are pursuing multi-billion dollar developments which are a major challenge to finance because of the size and risk of the projects. The smaller start-up companies require less capital for their smaller systems, however, their lack of corporate financial muscle and launch vehicle track record results in a major challenge to obtain financing also because of high risk. On Wall Street, new launch system financing is a question of market, technical, organizational, legal/regulatory and financial risk. The current limit of acceptable financial risk for Space businesses on Wall Street are the telecommunications and broadcast satellite projects, of which many in number are projected for the future. Tbc recent problems with Iridium market and financial performance are casting a long shadow over new satellite project financing, making it increasingly difficult for the new satellite projects to obtain needed financing.

Scottoline, S.↗

A Technology Plan for Enabling Commercial Space Business

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Space Transportation Program is a customer driven, focused technology program that supports the NASA Strategic Plan and considers future commercial space business projections. The initial cycle of the Advanced Space Transportation Program implementation planning was conducted from December 1995 through February 1996 and represented increased NASA emphasis on broad base technology development with the goal of dramatic reductions in the cost of space transportation. The second planning cycle, conducted in January and February 1997, updated the program implementation plan based on changes in the external environment, increased maturity of advanced concept studies, and current technology assessments. The program has taken a business-like approach to technology development with a balanced portfolio of near, medium, and long-term strategic targets. Strategic targets are influenced by Earth science, space science, and exploration objectives as well as commercial space markets. Commercial space markets include those that would be enhanced by lower cost transportation as well as potential markets resulting in major increases in space business induced by reductions in transportation cost. The program plan addresses earth-to-orbit space launch, earth orbit operations and deep space systems. It also addresses all critical transportation system elements; including structures, thermal protection systems, propulsion, avionics, and operations. As these technologies are matured, integrated technology flight experiments such as the X-33 and X-34 flight demonstrator programs support near-term (one to five years) development or operational decisions. The Advanced Space Transportation Program and the flight demonstrator programs combine business planning, ground-based technology demonstrations and flight demonstrations that will permit industry and NASA to commit to revolutionary new space transportation systems beginning at the turn of the century and continuing far into the future.

Lyles, Garry M.↗

Preliminary Results From NASA's Space Solar Power Exploratory Research and Technology Program

Large solar power satellite (SPS) systems that might provide base load power into terrestrial markets were examined extensively in the 1970s by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Following a hiatus of about 15 years, the subject of space solar power (SSP) was reexamined by NASA from 1995-1997 in the "fresh look" study, and during 1998 in an SSP "concept definition study". As a result of these efforts, during 1999-2000, NASA has been conducting the SSP Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) program. The goal of the SERT activity has been to conduct preliminary strategic technology research and development to enable large, multi-megawatt SSP systems and wireless power transmission (WPT) for government missions and commercial markets (in-space and terrestrial). In pursuing that goal, the SERT: (1) refined and modeled systems approaches for the utilization of SSP concepts and technologies, ranging from the near-term (e.g., for space science, exploration and commercial space applications) to the far-term (e.g., SSP for terrestrial markets), including systems concepts, architectures, technology, infrastructure (e.g. transportation), and economics; (2) conducted technology research, development and demonstration activities to produce "proof-of-concept" validation of critical SSP elements for both nearer and farther-term applications; and (3) engendered the beginnings of partnerships (nationally and internationally) that could be expanded, as appropriate, to pursue later SSP technology and applications. Through these efforts, the SERT should allow better informed future decisions regarding further SSP and related technology research and development investments by both NASA and prospective partners, and guide further definition of technology roadmaps - including performance objectives, resources and schedules, as well as "multi-purpose" applications (e.g., commerce, science, and government). This paper presents preliminary results from the SERT effort at a summary level, including the study approach, SPS concepts, applications findings, and concludes with a revised assessment of the prospects for solar power satellites using SSP technologies and systems.

Howell, Joe T.↗

2nd Generation RLV: Program Goals and Acquisition Strategy

The risk to loss of life for Space Shuttle crewmembers is approximately one in 245 missions. U.S. launch service providers captured nearly 100%, of the commercial launch market revenues in the mid 1980s. Today, the U.S. captures less than 50% of that market. A launch system architecture is needed that will dramatically increase the safety of space flight while significantly reducing the cost. NASA's Space Launch Initiative, which is implemented by the 2nd Generation RLV Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center, seeks to develop technology and reusable launch vehicle concepts which satisfy the commercial launch market needs and the unique needs of NASA. Presented in this paper are the five primary elements of NASA's Integrated Space Transportation Plan along with the highest level goals and the acquisition strategy of the 2nd Generation RLV Program. Approval of the Space Launch Initiative FY01 budget of $290M is seen as a major commitment by the Agency and the Nation to realize the commercial potential that space offers and to move forward in the exploration of space.

Graham, J. Bart↗

Pricing the Computing Resources: Reading Between the Lines and Beyond

Distributed computing systems have the potential to increase the usefulness of existing facilities for computation without adding anything physical, but that is realized only when necessary administrative features are in place. In a distributed environment, the best match is sought between a computing job to be run and a computer to run the job (global scheduling), which is a function that has not been required by conventional systems. Viewing the computers as 'suppliers' and the users as 'consumers' of computing services, markets for computing services/resources have been examined as one of the most promising mechanisms for global scheduling. We first establish why economics can contribute to scheduling. We further define the criterion for a scheme to qualify as an application of economics. Many studies to date have claimed to have applied economics to scheduling. If their scheduling mechanisms do not utilize economics, contrary to their claims, their favorable results do not contribute to the assertion that markets provide the best framework for global scheduling. We examine the well-known scheduling schemes, which concern pricing and markets, using our criterion of what application of economics is. Our conclusion is that none of the schemes examined makes full use of economics.

Nakai, Junko↗

Thermal Clothing

Gateway Technologies, Inc. is marketing and developing textile insulation technology originally developed by Triangle Research and Development Corporation. The enhanced thermal insulation stems from Small Business Innovation Research contracts from NASA's Johnson Space Center and the U.S. Air Force. The effectiveness of the insulation comes from the microencapsulated phase-change materials originally made to keep astronauts gloved hands warm. The applications for the product range from outer wear, housing insulation, and blankets to protective firefighting gear and scuba diving suits. Gateway has developed and begun marketing thermal regulating products under the trademark, OUTLAST. Products made from OUTLAST are already on the market, including boot and shoe liners, winter headgear, hats and caps for hunting and other outdoor sports, and a variety of men's and women's ski gloves.

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Reinventing the Solar Power Satellite

The selling price of electrical power varies with time. The economic viability of space solar power is maximum if the power can be sold at peak power rates, instead of baseline rate. Price and demand of electricity was examined from spot-market data from four example markets: New England, New York City, suburban New York, and California. The data was averaged to show the average price and demand for power as a function of time of day and time of year. Demand varies roughly by a factor of two between the early-morning minimum demand, and the afternoon maximum; both the amount of peak power, and the location of the peak, depends significantly on the location and the weather. The demand curves were compared to the availability curves for solar energy and for tracking and non-tracking satellite solar power systems in order to compare the market value of terrestrial and solar electrical power. In part 2, new designs for a space solar power (SSP) system were analyzed to provide electrical power to Earth for economically competitive rates. The approach was to look at innovative power architectures to more practical approaches to space solar power. A significant barrier is the initial investment required before the first power is returned. Three new concepts for solar power satellites were invented and analyzed: a solar power satellite in the Earth-Sun L2 point, a geosynchronous no-moving parts solar power satellite, and a nontracking geosynchronous solar power satellite with integral phased array. The integral-array satellite had several advantages, including an initial investment cost approximately eight times lower than the conventional design.

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗

The Impact of Total Liberalization of Domestic Air Transport on the Social Welfare and on the Dynamic of Competition: Comparison Between the United States and the European Union

Since the lst of April 1997 date of the implementation of the third package of the liberalization, air transport, within the european Union has become totally liberalized. In the United States the deregulation of domestic air traffic was earlier and faster since it took place in October 1978 after the adoption of the only act of deregulation. This paper, in its first part, deals with the liberalization of the industry of air traffic in the european union. After a comparison with US system based on market demand, fare policy and network restrictions, we present our descriptive results coming from treatments on the OAG data. These results present several aspects such as the evolution of the competitive structure of the intra-european routes, the level of airport dominance and the growth of hub structure. The second part of the paper presents models of entry in the airline industry. As profitability" of route flown explains correctly decisions taken by airlines to serve or not a route, the paper focuses on the specification and the estimation of the determinants of city, pair profitability in the european union. Treatments done on the OAG data show a rapid development of leasing space agreement (partial and total) and code sharing practices between 1995 and 2000 in Europe that's why we differentiate first between the two type of competitive strategy of entry(direct entry and leasing space agreement) and second between the competitive strategy of entry and the alliance strategy of code sharing. So the estimation of model will be able to answer the question if the european air transport market is contestable and in case not to see if the decision of entry is more directed by the level of airport dominance (as in the domestic United States market)or essentially by the competitive structure of the routes. We try to explain the nature of entry(directleasing or code sharing) by the different levels of these two determinants.

Zbidi, Karim↗

New Lubricants Protect Machines and the Environment

In 1994, NASA and Lockheed Martin Space Operations commissioned Sun Coast Chemicals of Daytona Inc to develop a new type of lubricant that would be safe for the environment and help "grease the wheels" of the shuttle-bearing launcher platform. Founded in 1989, Sun Coast Chemicals is known amongst the racing circuit for effective lubricants that help overcome engine and transmission problems related to heat and wear damage. In a matter of weeks, Sun Coast Chemical produced the biodegradable, high-performance X-1R Crawler Track Lube. In 1996, Sun Coast Chemical determined there was a market for this new development, and introduced three derivative products, Train Track Lubricant, Penetrating Spray Lubricant, and Biodegradable Hydraulic Fluid, and then quickly followed with a gun lubricant/cleaner and a fishing rod and reel lubricant. Just recently, Sun Coast introduced the X-1R Corporation, which folds the high-performance, environmentally safe benefits into a full line of standard automotive and specially formulated racing products. The entire X-1R automotive product line has stood up to rigorous testing by groups such as the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, the Swedish National Testing and Research Institute, the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Oakland University (Rochester, Michigan), and Morgan-McClure Motorsports (Abingdon, Virginia). The X-1R Corporation also markets "handy packs" for simple jobs around the house, consisting of a multi-purpose, multi-use lubricant and grease. In 2003, The X-1R Corporation teamed up with Philadelphia-based Penn Tackle Manufacturing Co., a leading manufacturer of fishing tackle since 1932, to jointly develop and market a line of advanced lubrication products for saltwater and freshwater anglers

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