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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An accumulation method for early fault warning and its application to wind turbine systems

Unexpected failures in engineering systems lead to expensive maintenance actions and should be avoided if at all possible. This is particularly true for wind turbine systems for which unexpected failures not only demand costly repairs but also cause long downtime. Motivated by this need, we present an accumulation method for fault early warning and failure anticipation. Here, our research shows that one critical element allowing the ability of early warning is to accumulate the small-magnitude symptoms resulting from gradual changes in an engineering system like wind turbines. Our idea is inspired by the classical cumulative sum method, or CUSUM, but we have to redesign the accumulation mechanism for tackling unique challenges in wind turbine data. The new accumulation method is applied to two real wind turbine datasets, one with gearbox failures and the other with generator failures, and demonstrates superior performance as compared with CUSUM.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variance-Reduced Accelerated First-Order Methods: Central Limit Theorems and Confidence Statements

In this paper, we consider a strongly convex stochastic optimization problem and propose three classes of variable sample-size stochastic first-order methods: (i) the standard stochastic gradient descent method, (ii) its accelerated variant, and (iii) the stochastic heavy-ball method. In each scheme, the exact gradients are approximated by averaging across an increasing batch size of sampled gradients. We prove that when the sample size increases at a geometric rate, the generated estimates converge in mean to the optimal solution at an analogous geometric rate for schemes (i)–(iii). Based on this result, we provide central limit statements, whereby it is shown that the rescaled estimation errors converge in distribution to a normal distribution with the associated covariance matrix dependent on the Hessian matrix, the covariance of the gradient noise, and the step length. If the sample size increases at a polynomial rate, we show that the estimation errors decay at a corresponding polynomial rate and establish the associated central limit theorems (CLTs). Under certain conditions, we discuss how both the algorithms and the associated limit theorems may be extended to constrained and nonsmooth regimes. As a result, we provide an avenue to construct confidence regions for the optimal solution based on the established CLTs and test the theoretical findings on a stochastic parameter estimation problem.

Lei, Jinlong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combined speckle- and propagation-based single shot two-dimensional phase retrieval method

Single-shot two-dimensional (2D) phase retrieval (PR) can recover the phase shift distribution within an object from a single 2D x-ray phase contrast image (XPCI). Two competing XPCI imaging modalities often used for single-shot 2D PR to recover material properties critical for predictive performance capabilities are: speckle-based (SP-XPCI) and propagation-based (PB-XPCI) XPCI imaging. However, PR from SP-XPCI and PB-XPCI images are, respectively, limited to reconstructing accurately slowly and rapidly varying features due to noise and differences in their contrast mechanisms. Herein, we consider a combined speckle- and propagation-based XPCI (SPB-XPCI) image by introducing a mask to generate a reference pattern and imaging in the near-to-holographic regime to induce intensity modulations in the image. We develop a single-shot 2D PR method for SPB-XPCI images of pure phase objects without imposing restrictions such as object support constraints. It is compared against PR methods inspired by those developed for SP-XPCI and PB-XPCI on simulated and experimental images of a thin glass shell before and during shockwave compression. Reconstructed phase maps show improvements in quantitative scores of root-mean-square error and structural similarity index measure using our proposed method.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting

The Method of Analogues (MOA) has gained popularity in the past decade for infectious disease forecasting due to its non-parametric nature. In MOA, the local behavior observed in a time series is matched to the local behaviors of several historical time series. The known values that directly follow the historical time series that best match the observed time series are used to calculate a forecast. This non-parametric approach leverages historical trends to produce forecasts without extensive parameterization, making it highly adaptable. However, MOA is limited in scenarios where historical data is sparse. This limitation was particularly evident during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, where the emerging global epidemic had little-to-no historical data. In this work, we propose a new method inspired by MOA, called the Synthetic Method of Analogues (sMOA). sMOA replaces historical disease data with a library of synthetic data that describe a broad range of possible disease trends. This model circumvents the need to estimate explicit parameter values by instead matching segments of ongoing time series data to a comprehensive library of synthetically generated segments of time series data. We demonstrate that sMOA has competitive performance with state-of-the-art infectious disease forecasting models, out-performing 78% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Mean Absolute Error and 76% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Weighted Interval Score. Additionally, we introduce a novel uncertainty quantification methodology designed for the onset of emerging epidemics. Developing versatile approaches that do not rely on historical data and can maintain high accuracy in the face of novel pandemics is critical for enhancing public health decision-making and strengthening preparedness for future outbreaks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evapotranspiration partitioning estimates from 8 methods from 47 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides daily estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) and the transpiration-to-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) across 47 terrestrial National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites spanning diverse environmental and biome conditions in the United States across three years of data (2019-2021). Daily ET is reported in both energy units (MJ m⁻² day⁻¹) and equivalent water depth (mm day⁻¹), assuming a constant latent heat of vaporization of 2.45 MJ/kg. The primary method uses a hybrid recurrent neural network–Penman–Monteith framework (RNN-PM), which integrates physically based surface energy balance constraints with data-driven learning to partition ET into transpiration and evaporation components. Model inputs include in situ meteorological observations (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and radiation) combined with satellite-derived land surface temperature, leaf area index, and soil moisture. For benchmarking and uncertainty assessment, T/ET estimates from seven additional models are included: Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), Penman-Monteith (P-M), Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), among others—spanning empirical, machine-learning, and process-based approaches (see methods section or linked publication for detailed descriptions). Data Package Contents: The dataset a csv files containing daily ET and T/ET estimates for each site and model, along with associated metadata files these variables. Data can be accessed using common spreadsheet software (e.g., Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice) or programming environments such as R or Python. Together, these data support cross-site comparisons of ecosystem water use, evaluation of ET partitioning methods, and development of improved land–atmosphere exchange models.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing convergence in global sensitivity analysis: a review of methods for assessing and monitoring convergence

In global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a model, a proper convergence analysis of metrics is essential for ensuring a level of confidence or trustworthiness in sensitivity results obtained, yet is somewhat deficient in practice. The level of confidence in sensitivity measures, particularly in relation to their influence and support for decisions from scientific, social and policy perspectives, is heavily reliant on the convergence of GSA. We review the literature and summarize the available methods for monitoring and assessing convergence of sensitivity measures based on application purposes. The aim is to expose the various choices for convergence assessment and encourage further testing of available methods to clarify their level of robustness. Furthermore, the review identifies a pressing need for comparative studies on convergence assessment methods to establish a clear hierarchy of effectiveness and encourages the adoption of systematic approaches for enhanced robustness in sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three New EMP Analysis Methods [Slides]

Three analysis techniques are presented. One is a new method of doing spectrograms that gives full time resolution and optimum frequency resolution. Another is a method that uses the phase of the Fourier transform of the signal rather than the magnitude of narrow band receivers. With one FFT, one can obtain 1000’s of TOA-frequency pairs to fit to that are unaffected by any magnetic field that the signal encounter during propagation. The third method dechirps the signal in a manner that identifies the STEC and VTOA that finds when the signal has both ionospheric modes equally.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Linac_Gen: Integrating Machine Learning and Particle-in-Cell Methods for Enhanced Beam Dynamics at Fermilab

Here, we introduce Linac_Gen, a tool developed at Fermilab, which combines machine learning algorithms with Particle-in-Cell methods to advance beam dynamics in linacs. Linac_Gen employs techniques such as Random Forest, Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, and Neural Networks, achieving a tenfold increase in speed for phase-space matching in Linacs over traditional methods, through the use of genetic algorithms. Crucially, Linac_Gen's adept handling of 3D field maps elevates the precision and realism in simulating beam instabilities and resonances, marking a key advancement in the field. Benchmarked against established codes, Linac_Gen demonstrates not only improved efficiency and precision in beam dynamics studies but also in the design and optimization of Linac systems, as evidenced in its application to Fermilab's PIP-II Linac project. This work represents a notable advancement in accelerator physics, marrying ML with PIC methods to set new standards for efficiency and accuracy in accelerator design and research. Linac_Gen exemplifies a novel approach in accelerator technology, offering substantial improvements in both theoretical and practical aspects of beam dynamics.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applications of fuzzy logic and best-worst method for tritium sensor selection

Accurate assessment of tritium as a fuel source is critical in fusion reactions, necessitating effective sensor evaluation methods. This study investigates a multi-criteria decision-making framework for selecting tritium sensors, integrating fuzzy logic to enhance decision quality. Initial attempts at applying fuzzy logic were found to be too elementary and failed to capture the complexity of multi-criteria selection; this prompted a refined approach that incorporated expert insights and advanced ranking techniques for sensor evaluation. The research used a two-stage methodology. In the first stage, important criteria and sub-criteria for sensor performance were identified and defined. These criteria were then weighted and scored using a fuzzy best-worst method, drawing upon expert opinions to ensure relevance and validity. The second stage involved interpreting information about varying sensors to rank them based on their overall criteria scores, encouraging the selection of the most suitable options. The result of the study is a proposed method for effective sensor selection in fusion reactors, which in turn will significantly improve the reliability of tritium monitoring in fusion applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced PDV waveform search and analysis method using parallel circular-convolution / cross-correlation for improved dynamic surface velocity extraction [Poster]

Previous work on exhaustive search methodologies for extracting best-match parameters pertaining to dynamic surface quantities from PDV was done by cross-correlating synthetically generated PDV waveforms with observed counterparts using the circular-convolution theorem. This work was further developed into an open-source PDV analysis toolkit called CCPDVANALYSIS which expands upon and enhances the previously tested methods by parallelizing serial algorithmic components and incorporating a comprehensive script library for different flavors of instantaneous frequency functions utilized in generating synthetic PDV waveforms. Results of these enhancements have been shown to markedly decrease execution times of exhaustive search and extraction algorithms and produce improved velocity recoveries for low-velocity and dynamically varying velocity signals. The CCPDVANALYSIS script library demonstrates an advanced method for extracting velocities from low-velocity and non-constant velocity signals further extending and improving the methods beyond capabilities of traditional frequency domain tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

LCO Synthesis by Sol-Gel Method

The synthesis of Lanthanum Cobalt Oxide (LCO) via Sol-Gel method provides a potentially low-cost method of production for a P-type photocatalytic. LCO was prepped from Lanthanum and Nitrate Precursors in Aqueous solution. After a significant amount of water is evaporated, the solution is deposited onto SiO2 substrate via spin-deposition method. After annealing, the samples produce thin film LCO that display thickness of sub-500 nanometers. The samples material profile is confirmed by both Raman spectroscopy and X-Ray Diffraction spectroscopy (XRD). Additionally, two-point probing tested the conductivity of the samples. The thin film samples display characteristics of a P-type photocatalytic and may potentially be used in the formation of a P-N junction for user in water-splitting applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Evaluation of a Novel Fuel Injector Design Method using Hybrid-Additive Manufacturing (Final Report)

The widespread application of metal additive manufacturing (AM) technologies has enabled exploration of complex design spaces to achieve optimally performing components. Current optimization techniques make use of several advanced methods to provide designs that are superior to existing versions. However, they seldom discuss the manufacturability of the optimal designs. The objective of this project was to develop a design optimization tool that simultaneously optimizes fuel injector hardware and the combustor flow field with optimization functions and constraints that consider both combustor performance and manufacturability using advanced AM methods and post-processing. In this way, the resultant hardware design is inherently imbued with our most advanced knowledge of combustion physics and AM methods from its conception.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Experimental Optimization of High-Temperature Modeling Tools and Methods for Concentrated Solar Power Particle - Systems

A novel, open-source radiative modeling toolset was developed to extend the functionality of particle-based modeling software (e.g. discrete element method (DEM)) to environmental conditions relevant to concentrated solar power applications. This toolset was optimized for deployment on desktop workstations instead of high-performance computing systems, to render such tools more accessible to the research community. Both particle-based modeling and radiative exchange modeling are computationally expensive and often require specialized programming expertise, making these methods cumbersome to use. Recent developments in DEM software by DCS Computing have greatly reduced these challenges, providing a graphical-user-interface based platform and modeling optimization for desktop workstations, HPCs, and cloud computing. The University of Dayton leveraged the experience of DCS Computing in developing a user-friendly, open-source radiative heat transfer expansion for DEM modeling. The University of Dayton DEM+ radiative modeling toolset was developed using a combination of fundamental experimental measurements, modeling, and simplified flow experiments over a range of temperatures and flow conditions. The toolset provides researchers with access to multiple radiative models including an accelerated Monte-Carlo Ray Tracing (application agnostic, highly computationally expensive), an expanded database of distance-based approximations (application limited, computationally light), and a weighted blending of the two methods capable of achieving over 90% reduction in computation time with equivalent accuracy compared to Monte-Carlo Ray Tracing. Through a graphical user interface, users can customize the radiative models to match their desired accuracy and available computational resources, improving access to particle based modeling for the research community. Ceramic sintered bauxite proppants were used in modeling and experimentally as a baseline. Both the radiative heat transfer and flow properties for particulate systems were investigated at elevated temperatures up to 800 °C. The major accomplishments for this work include a verified, open-source radiative modeling toolset to be distributed amongst the research community and the fabrication of three small-scale test facilities to investigate particle behavior and tune DEM flow properties for operation up to 800 °C. The findings have been shared with the research community via conference modeling workshops, deployment of the tools in DCS Computing Aspherix®, and open-source access to the developed radiative modeling tool. The development of next-generation CSP facilities and thermal energy storage systems based on ceramic particles requires providing access to computationally efficient and accurate modeling tools. Particles will experience a wide range of environments (20-800 °C) and handling conditions (dilute curtains or dense packing), requiring specially designed and optimized equipment. Optimizing solid particle physics models and establishing best-practices for particle modeling in CSP environments will assist researchers with designing optimized equipment, accelerating the deployment of more economically-competitive CSP facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Experimental Test of the Ratio Method

The ratio is a new reaction observable suggested to extract accurately structure information on halo nuclei. It corresponds to the ratio of differential cross sections for scattering and breakup, which is predicted to remove the uncertainty related to the reaction dynamics. We present here the first experimental test of the method for the 11 Be + 12 C collision at E Lab = 20A MeV performed at Texas A&M University. Differential cross sections for scattering and inclusive one-neutron breakup have been measured with the new detector array BlueSTEAl. The ratio of cross sections is very smooth and independent of the projectile-target interaction, which demonstrates the validity of the ratio method. We extend our analysis to existing 11 Be + 208 Pb data, confirming that the method works well on any target.

11Be↗
DOE OSTI2025

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expedition UT-GOM2-2 Methods

Methods used during the University of Texas (UT) Deepwater Hydrate Coring Expedition (UT-GOM2-2) include work done onboard the Helix Q4000 in the offshore Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico), herein “the Gulf”, “dockside” in Salt Lake City, Utah, and some shore-based work in individual laboratories. The goal of this report is two-fold: to provide enough detail on the methods so they can be repeated by others; and to provide a reference document for the team to enhance cross-disciplinary understanding and knowledge. Methods include drilling operations, depth references and depth modification, downhole tool deployment, coring tool performance assessment, core processing, lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, as well as physical properties, including core logging and imaging, rock magnetism, dissolved methane concentration, hydrate saturation, microbiology, and geochemistry. An extensive amount of operational work and planning was required before mobilization of the expedition to permit, build mobile labs, and test downhole tools for deepwater drilling.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2025)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign (SFWST) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two priorities for SFWST are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 associated with the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-25SN01030407) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2025) (M3SF-25SN010304072). This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-25SN01030408), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-25SN01030409), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-25SN01030410). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF-24SN010304072.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Design Curves for Alloy 709 for an Improved Creep-fatigue Design Method

Creep-fatigue (CF) interaction damage is the primary damage mode for high-temperature structural components subjected to cyclic loading. Over the past several decades, researchers within the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section III, Division 5, have focused on developing elevated temperature code rules to ensure conservative structural designs that mitigate CF failure in high-temperature reactors. The existing CF evaluation methodologies in the Code are based on the creep and fatigue damage diagram approach, which is complex and often excessively conservative. The alternative CF evaluation approach proposed here is intended to significantly simplify the evaluation procedure while reducing conservatism in high-temperature component design analysis. This alternative CF evaluation method integrates the elastic–perfectly plastic (EPP) analysis approach with the simplified model test (SMT) CF design concept, leveraging the advantages of both methods. This report presents the preliminary analysis and the approach for developing CF design curves for Alloy 709, utilizing fatigue and CF data generated for the 100,000-hr Code Case to support its qualification to ASME Section III, Division 5 for Class A construction of high temperature reactors. This study is to support the incorporation of Alloy 709 in this alternative CF evaluation method. Recommendations for the remaining work needed to complete the effort are also provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗