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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A mesoscopic link-transmission-model able to track individual vehicles

Macroscopic traffic flow is a common choice for large-scale traffic simulations. These models do not provide individual-specific metrics as outputs. However, this treatment is necessary in agent-based-models, as in, for example, assigning routes based on personal characteristics. Here, in this paper, we propose an extension of the link-transmission-model, an efficient and yet accurate discretization of the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) model, which allow vehicles to be tracked individually while keeping the main features of the underlying model. The extension comprises modifying the link and node models to ensure that the flow between links is always at discrete levels. Therefore, every unit of flow is associated with one individual vehicle moving from its current to its next link. An upper bound of the discretization error is provided. We show that the proposed model resembles its continuous counterpart on lane drop, merge, and diverge cases. In addition, we apply the model into three different networks to validate its applicability in large networks. Finally, we also confirm the parameter transferability between continuous and discrete models and that both can well reproduce field data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gas-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model Updates

This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PB-HTGR) reference plant models for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These models serve as the foundation for the future development of detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. The reference plant models have been developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, which is the code suite proposed for non-light-water reactor systems safety analysis. It incorporates various simulation tools developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, including the Griffin code for reactor physics, the Pronghorn and SAM codes for core thermal fluids, the BISON code for solid conduction and fuel performance, and the SAM code for system analysis. The primary objective of the work that was performed was to assess BlueCRAB’s level of readiness for modeling a PB-HTGR. To do so, we first developed numerical models in BlueCRAB that include the key physics for this technology to ensure an adequate level of fidelity for modeling PB-HTGR core performance and for performing multiphysics simulations for equilibrium core conditions and different accident scenarios. Then we simulated transient scenarios, including depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling accidents, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events with delayed and prompt supercritical reactivity insertions. The analysis in this report includes comparisons of the 2D thermal fluid porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM, and comparisons of coupled SAM/Griffin/SAM and coupled Pronghorn/Griffin for depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events. In addition, we compare 3D, 2D, and 0D/PKE neutronic models for the two control rod withdrawal scenarios with coupled Pronghorn/Griffin. The comparisons show that the BlueCRAB models lead to physically intuitive solutions for the scenarios examined. The changes in the various scalar and vector fields, such as neutron flux, power, temperature, density, pressure, and velocity, are within the expected ranges, and their distributions can be explained by the system response of the transients and the geometric and material variations. Several comparisons suggest that the porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM can lead to similar solutions, even though they are based on different methodologies. This work further highlights the need for flexible tools with various levels of fidelity to cover the breadth and depth of needs that may arise in future technical evaluations of the PB-HTGR. We believe that the BlueCRAB capabilities will be a significant asset for confirmatory analyses in order to resolve important safety questions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Predictive Model for Accurate Rupture Time from Multi-Axial Creep in Alloy 709 with Physics-Based Simulations

A physics-based model is developed to predict multiaxial creep behavior in Alloy 709 (A709), an advanced austenitic stainless steel intended for high-temperature applications such as Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). Compared to conventional stainless steels like 316H, A709 offers superior high-temperature performance; however, comprehensive data on its multiaxial creep response remain limited. To address this gap, a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) framework is used to simulate the deformation and failure mechanisms of A709 under multiaxial loading conditions. The model incorporates an extended Hu-Cocks dislocation creep formulation that accounts for precipitation effects, along with the Sham–Needleman model to capture grain boundary cavitation-driven failure. These advanced constitutive models enable a detailed understanding of the interplay between microstructural evolution and macroscopic creep response. Furthermore, the study evaluates the predictive accuracy of various effective stress measures in estimating creep rupture life, leveraging simulated multiaxial creep data. The findings provide critical insights into the applicability of different stress measures for engineering design and life prediction of A709 components operating under complex loading conditions. This work contributes to improving the reliability of high-temperature structural components by advancing predictive modeling capabilities for advanced austenitic steels.

Alloy 709↗
DOE OSTI2024

Super Resolving Unrolled Neural Networks for Remote Sensing

In remote sensing systems, the capabilities of the system are constrained by the complex interactions between size, weight, and power (SWAP) of potential designs. In electro-optical (EO) systems, examples of these critical parameters include the system’s sensitivity and resolution. Those parameters can be increased by ever larger optical apertures and focal planes but at the cost of more SWAP. Multi-image super resolution (MISR) techniques allow resolution to be enhanced via computation rather than more sophisticated optical hardware. These algorithms combine multiple images together into a single, higher resolution image, trading temporal resolution and computation for spatial resolution. Fielded MISR techniques, such as Drizzle, can require several hundred images to create a single super resolved image, implying reduced temporal resolution, increased data acquisition load, and limiting mission applications. Iterative techniques, such as model-based image reconstruction and compressive sensing, have been shown to create super resolved images using fewer images than Drizzle. They do this by posing an optimization problem that balances accuracy between a highly accurate physical model and an image model. In the case of super resolution, the physical model is defined by the relation between low resolution input images and the desired high resolution output image. The image model encodes some assumptions about the super resolved image. These assumptions are meant to suppress reconstruction artifacts that arise due to deterministic physical model error, stochastic measurement noise, and potential undersampling. In practice, the performance of iterative methods are limited by imaging models compatible with optimization. Deep learning-based methods can effectively learn image models of arbitrary complexity, but lack the theoretical explainability and robustness of iterative techniques. Consensus equilibrium (CE) generalizes the iterative techniques beyond optimization, enabling blackbox algorithms such as traditional and neural image denoisers to be used as the image model. CE-based approaches retain much of the explainability and robustness of iterative techniques while allowing the expressiveness of machine learning image models to be used. Additionally, by unrolling iterations of CE with an embedded image denoiser, the image denoiser can be further trained and specialized to the specific application with potentially higher quality reconstructions. Under this project, we demonstrated the feasibility of training an unrolled neural network based upon CE. While we didn’t train one, we showed that the CE process is differentiable and its gradient can be tractably computed. We also explored the usage of a variants of CE akin to generative neural works. Most importantly, we applied the CE framework to a number of problems including non-blind deconvolution, upsampling, single-image super resolution, MISR, event-based sensing, and saturated deconvolution. Our MISR prototype creates high quality reconstructions with an order of magnitude fewer images than previous approaches and, critically, produces these reconstructions fast enough for practical usage.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo: Preprint

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. Using GHEDesigner, a lookup table was created to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on agent energy bills. This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of different costing and pricing future scenarios. While the code is still under development and nationwide simulations are ongoing, initial results for two states are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts and considering multiple costing scenarios.

ambient temperature loop↗
DOE OSTI2025

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. A lookup table was created using GHEDesigner to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on energy bills for building owners (agents). This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of future cost and price scenarios. Initial results for statewide analysis (for Vermont) and nationwide (for United States) are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts as well as evaluating multiple cost scenarios.

ambient-temperature loop↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2 -products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the E LUC , S OCEAN and S LAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, E FOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr −1 ), E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr −1 ). Also, for 2024, G ATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 and S LAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr −1 , leaving a large negative B IM (−1.7 GtC yr −1 ), suggesting that the total sink or G ATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development, Verification, and Validation of an OpenFOAM-Based Solver for Modeling Inertial Fusion Energy Chambers

Our work seeks to introduce a computational tool tailored to the physics of inertial fusion energy chambers, in particular, those concepts based on thick liquid walls. In this approach, the structural materials are protected by several neutron mean-free-paths of renewable liquid and thus will be able to survive much longer than un-shielded walls, with virtually all structures lasting for the life of the plant and enabling the use of commercially available and qualified materials. The OpenFOAM-based solver named rhoCentralFoam has been used as a starting point. rhoCentralFoam belongs to the standard OpenFOAM solver toolset. It is a high-speed, explicit compressible flow solver with shock-capturing capability. While the main features have been retained, the solver had to be restructured to make use of tabular data for equations of states, a necessary addition to model the complex thermo-physical properties of ionized gasses. This entailed the need to change the independent state variables used by the solver, resulting in a new thermodynamic library and slightly different solution algorithm. Moreover, a radiation heat transfer model based on the P-1 approximation was added to the solver. The solver is verified against an analytical solution from the Sedov-Taylor-Neumann test problem to showcase the ability of the hydrodynamic solvers to handle strong shocks, whereas the P-1 model was verified using a simple one-dimensional problem with an analytical solution. Additionally, a validation case involving shock-wave propagation through jet array is presented, and the results are compared with experimental data from the open literature. Lastly, in order to showcase the utility of the solver for practical cases, we applied the refined solver to two representative scenarios: gas venting within the HYLIFE-II chamber and the compression of the gas following the partial ablation of the liquid wall.

Chamber dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Highly confined epsilon-near-zero and surface phonon polaritons in SrTiO 3 membranes

Recent theoretical studies have suggested that transition metal perovskite oxide membranes can enable surface phonon polaritons in the infrared range with low loss and much stronger subwavelength confinement than bulk crystals. Such modes, however, have not been experimentally observed so far. Here, using a combination of far-field Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and near-field synchrotron infrared nanospectroscopy (SINS) imaging, we study the phonon polaritons in a 100 nm thick freestanding crystalline membrane of SrTiO 3 transferred on metallic and dielectric substrates. We observe a symmetric-antisymmetric mode splitting giving rise to epsilon-near-zero and Berreman modes as well as highly confined (by a factor of 10) propagating phonon polaritons, both of which result from the deep-subwavelength thickness of the membranes. Theoretical modeling based on the analytical finite-dipole model and numerical finite-difference methods fully corroborate the experimental results. Our work reveals the potential of oxide membranes as a promising platform for infrared photonics and polaritonics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven organic solubility prediction at the limit of aleatoric uncertainty

Abstract Small molecule solubility is a critically important property which affects the efficiency, environmental impact, and phase behavior of synthetic processes. Experimental determination of solubility is a time- and resource-intensive process and existing methods for in silico estimation of solubility are limited by their generality, speed, and accuracy. This work presents two models derived from the FASTPROP and CHEMPROP architectures and trained on BigSolDB which are capable of predicting solubility at arbitrary temperatures for a wide range of small molecules in organic solvent. Both extrapolate to unseen solutes 2–3 times more accurately than the current state-of-the-art model and we demonstrate that they are approaching the aleatoric limit (0.5–1$$\log S$$ log S ) of available test data, suggesting that further improvements in prediction accuracy require more accurate datasets. The FASTPROP-derived model (called FASTSOLV) and the CHEMPROP-based model are open source, freely accessible via a Python package and web interface, highly reproducible, and up to 2 orders of magnitude faster than current alternatives.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Magnetic contribution of itinerant electrons to neutron diffraction in the topological antiferromagnet CeAlGe

We report a neutron diffraction study of the magnetic structure of CeAlGe, a candidate topological semimetal that hosts a noncollinear, multi-𝐤 magnetic phase. By measuring both low- and high-momentum-transfer magnetic Bragg peaks within a single experimental setup, we refine a magnetic structure model based solely on localized Ce moments. This model, which differs from that obtained using only high-𝑄 data, quantitatively reproduces the observed intensities, including the (000) zeroth-order magnetic satellites that are especially sensitive to subtle components of the modulation. While a contribution from itinerant electrons to the zeroth satellite cannot be definitively excluded, our analysis reveals no unambiguous evidence for such effects within experimental uncertainty. The refined magnetic structures exhibit topologically nontrivial winding patterns, derived from the fitted magnetic parameters, that support localized, particle-like spin textures with half-integer topological charges. These features provide a natural microscopic origin for the observed topological Hall effect, establishing CeAlGe as a model system where magnetism and topology are intimately linked.

Magnetic coupling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics Model For The Agn-201 Dt

The surrogate model is a Gaussian Process Regression model based on sci-kit learn. The model takes the coarse and fine control rod position, along with the temperature of the reactor, and produces a corresponding k-eff value. Given k-eff over time, deviations can be determine and flagged for review at a later date.

Stewart, RyanH. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗
DOE OSTI2025

(SPT-)LSM theorems from projective non-invertible symmetries

Projective symmetries are ubiquitous in quantum lattice models and can be leveraged to constrain their phase diagram and entanglement structure. In this paper, we investigate the consequences of projective algebras formed by non-invertible symmetries and lattice translations in a generalized 1+1 1 + 1 D quantum XY model based on group-valued qudits. This model is specified by a finite group G G and enjoys a projective \mathsf{Rep}(G)× Z(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) × Z ( G ) and translation symmetry, where symmetry operators obey a projective algebra in the presence of symmetry defects. For invertible symmetries, such projective algebras imply Lieb-Schultz-Mattis (LSM) anomalies. However, this is not generally true for non-invertible symmetries, and we derive a condition on G G for the existence of an LSM anomaly. When this condition is not met, we prove an SPT-LSM theorem: any unique and gapped ground state is necessarily a non-invertible weak symmetry protected topological (SPT) state with non-trivial entanglement, for which we construct an example fixed-point Hamiltonian. The projectivity also affects the dual symmetries after gauging \mathsf{Rep}(G)× Z(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) × Z ( G ) sub-symmetries, giving rise to non-Abelian and non-invertible dipole symmetries, as well as non-invertible translations. We complement our analysis with the SymTFT, where the projectivity causes it to be a topological order non-trivially enriched by translations. Throughout the paper, we develop techniques for gauging \mathsf{Rep}(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) symmetry and inserting its symmetry defects on the lattice, which are applicable to other non-invertible symmetries.

Pace, Salvatore D. (ORCID:0000000306093335)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temporal sequence transformer to advance long-term streamflow prediction

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial for understanding climate change impacts on water resources and for effective management of extreme hydrological events. While Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have been the dominant data-driven approach for streamflow forecasting, recent advancements in transformer architectures for time series tasks have shown promise in outperforming traditional LSTM models. This study introduces a transformer-based model that integrates historical streamflow data with climatic variables to enhance streamflow prediction accuracy. We evaluated our transformer model against a benchmark LSTM across five diverse basins in the United States. Results demonstrate that the transformer architecture consistently outperforms the LSTM model across all evaluation metrics, highlighting its potential as a more effective tool for hydrological forecasting. This research contributes to the ongoing development of advanced AI techniques for improved water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies.

Singh, Ruhaan [Farragut High School]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Deep Learning and scatterControl for High-Throughput X-ray CT Based Non-Destructive Characterization of Large-Scale Casted Metallic Components

X-ray computed tomography (XCT) is essential for nondestructive evaluation and quality control of large-scale metal components. XCT imaging, however, faces significant challenges from metal artifacts, particularly those caused by Compton scattering, which degrade image quality and obscure critical details. Hardware-based solutions (e.g. scatterControl) offer advancements by intercepting scattered photons and reducing artifacts, but they can be time-consuming and require additional processing. Here, we propose modifying and leveraging a novel deep learning (DL) framework, Simurgh, to enhance and accelerate scatter correction in XCT. By combining scatterControl with DL-based artifact removal, we demonstrate significant reduction in scan time while producing high-quality reconstructions. Through extensive evaluation on industrial XCT data, we show that our methods reduce scan time by up to more than 10 x while preserving flaw detectability. Quantitative analysis across multiple segmentation techniques confirms that Simurgh-based reconstructions consistently outperform traditional Feldkamp-Davis-Kress, model-based iterative reconstruction, and commercial DL models in both pixel-level and task-specific evaluations, enabling scalable, high-throughput XCT workflows for characterization of large scale components in applications such as casting and metal additive manufacturing.

Complex metal parts↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Electrification Using Renewable Energies: Microgrid Installation Model with Combined Mixture k-Means Clustering Algorithm, Mixed Integer Linear Programming, and Onsset Method

Optimal planning and design of microgrids are priorities in the electrification of off-grid areas. Indeed, in one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7), the UN recommends universal access to electricity for all at the lowest cost. Several optimization methods with different strategies have been proposed in the literature as ways to achieve this goal. This paper proposes a microgrid installation and planning model based on a combination of several techniques. The programming language Python 3.10 was used in conjunction with machine learning techniques such as unsupervised learning based on K-means clustering and deterministic optimization methods based on mixed linear programming. These methods were complemented by the open-source spatial method for optimal electrification planning: onsset. Four levels of study were carried out. The first level consisted of simulating the model obtained with a cluster, which is considered based on the elbow and k-means clustering method as a case study. The second level involved sizing the microgrid with a capacity of 40 kW and optimizing all the resources available on site. The example of the different resources in the Togo case was considered. At the third level, the work consisted of proposing an optimal connection model for the microgrid based on voltage stability constraints and considering, above all, the capacity limit of the source substation. Finally, the fourth level involved a planning study of electrification strategies based mainly on microgrids according to the study scenario. The results of the first level of study enabled us to obtain an optimal location for the centroid of the cluster under consideration, according to the different load positions of this cluster. Then, the results of the second level of study were used to highlight the optimal resources obtained and proposed by the optimization model formulated based on the various technology costs, such as investment, maintenance, and operating costs, which were based on the technical limits of the various technologies. In these results, solar systems account for 80% of the maximum load considered, compared to 7.5% for wind systems and 12.5% for battery systems. Next, an optimal microgrid connection model was proposed based on the constraints of a voltage stability limit estimated to be 10% of the maximum voltage drop. The results obtained for the third level of study enabled us to present selective results for load nodes in relation to the source station node. Finally, the last results made it possible to plan electrification using different network technologies and systems in the short and long term. The case study of Togo was taken into account. The various results obtained from the different techniques provide the necessary leads for a feasibility study for optimal electrification of off-grid areas using microgrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗