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At least 361 records · Page 20

REopt Model Overview and Example Use Cases [Slides]

REopt(R) is a mixed-integer optimization model that minimizes the lifecycle cost of serving energy loads at a site. This work provides and introduction to the model along with its key workflow, techno-economic inputs, key outputs, and key caveats for readers to understand REopt the when, why, how of using this model. This resource also includes helpful links related to REopt model and the data sources it uses during the optimization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamic Line Rating Models and Their Potential for a Cost‐Effective Transition to Carbon‐Neutral Power Systems

Most transmission system operators (TSOs) currently use seasonally steady-state models considering limiting weather conditions that serve as reference to compute the transmission capacity of overhead power lines. The use of dynamic line rating (DLR) models can avoid the construction of new lines, market splitting, false congestions, and the degradation of lines in a cost-effective way. DLR can also be used in the long run in grid extension and new power capacity planning. In the short run, it should be used to help operate power systems with congested lines. The operation of the power systems is planned to have the market trading into account; thus, it computes transactions hours ahead of real-time operation, using power flow forecasts affected by large errors. In the near future, within a “smart grid” environment, in real-time operation conditions, TSOs should be able to rapidly compute the capacity rating of overhead lines using DLR models and the most reliable weather information, forecasts, and line measurements, avoiding the current steady-state approach that, in many circumstances, assumes ampacities above the thermal limits of the lines. Here, this work presents a review of the line rating methodologies in several European countries and the United States. Furthermore, it presents the results of pilot projects and studies considering the application of DLR in overhead power lines, obtaining significant reductions in the congestion of internal networks and cross-border transmission lines.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Elemental and Isotopic Yields from T Coronae Borealis: Predictions and Uncertainties

T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is a symbiotic recurrent nova system expected to undergo its next outburst within the next 2 yr. Recent hydrodynamic simulations have predicted the nucleosynthetic yields for both carbon–oxygen (CO) and oxygen–neon (ONe) white-dwarf models, but without accounting for thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. We perform detailed Monte Carlo postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations based on updated thermonuclear reaction rates and uncertainties from the 2025 evaluation. We quantify the resulting abundance uncertainties and identify the key nuclear reactions that dominate them. Our results show that both the CO and ONe nova models robustly produce characteristic CNO isotopes. More pronounced abundance differences emerge for elements with A ≥ 20. Sulfur is the most robust observational discriminator between the CO and ONe nova models, with a model-to-model difference of a factor of ≈30 and minimal sensitivity to reaction rate uncertainties. Neon, silicon, and phosphorus exhibit even larger abundance differences (factors of ≈150–250), providing strong diagnostic potential. While their predicted yields are subject to larger uncertainties, these remain smaller than the model-to-model differences, allowing these elements to serve as useful, though less precise, tracers of white-dwarf composition. Chlorine, argon, and potassium also differ between models, but the 1σ-abundance ranges for the CO and ONe models overlap, reducing their present usefulness as composition tracers. We find that only nine nuclear reactions dominate the abundance uncertainties of the most diagnostically important isotopes, and their influence is largely independent of the underlying white-dwarf composition. These results provide guidance for future experimental efforts and for interpreting ejecta compositions in the next eruption of T CrB.

Chemical Abundances↗

Spontaneous Lithiation of Binary Oxides during Epitaxial Growth on LiCoO 2

Epitaxial growth is a powerful tool for synthesizing heterostructures and integrating multiple functionalities. Interfacial mixing can readily occur at temperatures required for complete film crystallization and can significantly modify the properties of layered structures, particularly for those containing energy storage materials with smaller cations. Here we show a two-step sequence involving the growth of an epitaxial LiCoO 2 cathode layer followed by the deposition of a binary transition metal oxide (WO 3 , TiO 2 , and others) in which controlled lithiation of the binary oxide occurs. Orientation-controlled epitaxial synthesis of the model solid-state-electrolyte Li 2 WO 4 and model anode material Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 occurs as WO 3 and TiO 2 nucleate their respective host lattices and attract Li ions from the underlying cathode. The cathode layer readily provides a tunable amount of Li ions for the controlled lithiation of the subsequent layer. We demonstrate that this approach can be used for energy materials discovery and exploring different combinations of epitaxial interfaces that can serve as well-defined model systems for mechanistic studies of energy storage and conversion processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide

We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript on residence time distribution simulation in two 10-kilometer long river sections

This data package is associated with the publication “On the Transferability of Residence Time Distributions in Two 10-km Long River Sections with Similar Hydromorphic Units” submitted to the Journal of Hydrology (Bao et al. 2024).Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) at the stream-groundwater interface, along with their residence time distributions (RTDs) in the subsurface, is crucial for managing water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridors. However, directly simulating high-spatial resolution HEFs and RTDs can be a time-consuming process, particularly for watershed-scale modeling. Efficient surrogate models that link RTDs to hydromorphic units (HUs) may serve as alternatives for simulating RTDs in large-scale models. One common concern with these surrogate models, however, is the transferability of the relationship between the RTDs and HUs from one river corridor to another. To address this, we evaluated the HEFs and the resulting RTD-HU relationships for two 10-kilometer-long river corridors along the Columbia River, using a one-way coupled three-dimensional transient surface-subsurface water transport modeling framework that we previously developed. Applying this framework to the two river corridors with similar HUs allows for quantitative comparisons of HEFs and RTDs using both statistical tests and machine learning classification models. This data package includes the model inputs files and the simulation results data. This data package contains 10 folders. The modeling simulation results data are in the folders 100H_pt_data and 300area_pt_data, for the study domain Hanford 100H and 300 area respectively. The remaining eight folders contain the scripts and data to generate the manuscript figures. The file-level metadata file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _flmd.csv) includes a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _dd.csv) includes column header definitions and units of all tabular files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A sensitivity analysis to predict the neutronics behavior of samples irradiated in the VTR rabbit system

We report a low-order neutronics model is developed to carry out hundreds of simulations efficiently and investigate the neutronics behavior of samples being irradiated in a test reactor setting under different geometrical constraints. The low-order model allowed for simulations that yield the expected neutronics behavior of any irradiated sample in any environment and allows for the calculation of highly accurate spatially averaged statistics and idealized spatial distributions in the neutron flux. Several benchmarks are performed to evaluate the performance and limitations of the low-order model revealing many important findings. The low-order model predicted the LHGR in the EBR-II driver fuel to within 2.34% by only simulating the fuel rod by itself, which served as a validation for the model. Sensitivity studies investigated 3% enriched UO 2 and U-10Zr being irradiated in the Versatile Test Reactor rabbit system. The analyses investigated a range of combinations of 15 radii and 5 heights for each sample in the rabbit system. Similar data sets are also provided for irradiations in the Advanced Test Reactor’s B-10 irradiation position, which is a thermal neutron spectrum environment. Generalized fits and fit coefficients are obtained for sample heating, reaction rate densities, and local multiplication rate characteristics, allowing the predictions of the neutronics behavior of the samples based on their geometrical constraints. The analyses and fits laid the groundwork for developing a user-end Multiphysics analysis framework to assist and accelerate irradiation experiment design and optimization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A multiscale recurrent neural network model for predicting energy production from geothermal reservoirs

Optimization of energy production from geothermal reservoirs requires reliable prediction of energy production performance under alternative operation and development scenarios. Traditionally, reservoir simulation models are used for the evaluation and screening of alternative production and development plans. However, simulation models require extensive data collection and modeling efforts and are time-consuming to build, run, and update. Data-driven predictive models, on the other hand, can serve as efficient prediction tools that can be used for decision support and management of daily operations and surveillance activities. Data-driven models become particularly attractive when a reservoir simulation model for a field does not exist and/or is difficult to build. Machine learning (ML)-based data-driven models that have recently become popular in several fields exploit statistical patterns and relations in training data to generate predictions. As such, they tend to perform better in interpolation problems (that is, prediction within the training data range) than when they are used to extrapolate beyond the training data. Production data from geothermal reservoirs tend to exhibit short-term variabilities as well as long-term trends, such as monotonically declining production temperatures. Capturing both short-term features and long-term trends with ML-based models is not trivial. We evaluate the use of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. RNN is a class of ML architectures that are used to represent and predict sequential/dynamic data. Thus, it can be challenging to apply RNN to problems where long-term trends must be captured and extrapolation beyond the training data range is needed. We introduce the multiscale RNN architecture to extend the application of RNN to detect and predict both short-term variabilities and long-term trends in geothermal data. The developed architecture consists of a long-term component to only capture low-frequency data patterns, and a short-term component to detect features with higher frequency and more nonlinearity. The final prediction is obtained by combining the long-term and short-term predictions. Both synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the presented multiscale RNN model. The prediction performance of the multiscale RNN is compared against those obtained from the regular RNN and the autoregressive (AR) model. The results suggest that the multiscale architecture improves the long-term prediction performance of the regular RNN and enhances its robustness against noise.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Temperature-dependent mechanical properties and crystal plasticity parameters for additively manufactured Haynes-214 alloy: Experiments and numerical modeling

Our experimental mechanical testing data demonstrated that the additively manufactured (AM) laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) Haynes-214 alloy exhibits non-linear mechanical properties as the temperature rises from ambient to 870 °C. Crystal plasticity (CP) simulations provide an effective approach to gaining deeper insights into microstructure-property linkages under thermomechanical loading. This method can reduce the need for costly high-temperature mechanical testing while accounting for the effects of crystallographic texture and grain morphology on the mechanical behavior of AM materials. However, calibrating a CP model is time-consuming because individual simulations are computationally expensive and hundreds (or more) of iterations over parameter sets may be required. To address this issue, we have designed a machine learning-differential evolution (ML-DE) CP framework that can accurately interpolate the tensile properties of AM L-PBF Haynes-214 alloy across a wide temperature range from ambient to 870 °C, with minimal reliance on experimental data. The framework uses electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements to generate statistically equivalent microstructural volume elements to serve as inputs to the CP modeling framework. Stress–strain curves were generated from 1000 CP simulations, which serve as the training data set for the three ML regression algorithms explored: linear, extra-trees, and multi-layer perceptron. These three regression models were independently evaluated to compare their efficiency and identify the most suitable algorithm for the given problem. Results revealed that the extra-trees ML regressor outperforms the other models in both qualitative and quantitative aspects with an R 2 of 0.98. Subsequently, the differential evolution optimization approach is employed to calibrate the ML-based CP material parameters with experimental results obtained at various temperatures. Finally, temperature-dependent CP material parameters are formulated. The effectiveness and efficiency of the designed framework are validated through comparison with experimental results, demonstrating a high degree of agreement. These calibrated parametric constitutive equations enable further use of the CP model to study the deformation behavior of this alloy under a wide range of thermo-mechanical loading conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting stress response and improved protein overproduction in Bacillus subtilis

Abstract Bacillus subtilis is a well-characterized microorganism and a model for the study of Gram-positive bacteria. The bacterium can produce proteins at high densities and yields, which has made it valuable for industrial bioproduction. Like other cell factories, metabolic modeling of B. subtilis has discovered ways to optimize its metabolism toward various applications. The first genome-scale metabolic model (M-model) of B. subtilis was published more than a decade ago and has been applied extensively to understand metabolism, to predict growth phenotypes, and served as a template to reconstruct models for other Gram-positive bacteria. However, M-models are ill-suited to simulate the production and secretion of proteins as well as their proteomic response to stress. Thus, a new generation of metabolic models, known as metabolism and gene expression models (ME-models), has been initiated. Here, we describe the reconstruction and validation of a ME model of B. subtilis , i JT964-ME. This model achieved higher performance scores on the prediction of gene essentiality as compared to the M-model. We successfully validated the model by integrating physiological and omics data associated with gene expression responses to ethanol and salt stress. The model further identified the mechanism by which tryptophan synthesis is upregulated under ethanol stress. Further, we employed i JT964-ME to predict amylase production rates under two different growth conditions. We analyzed these flux distributions and identified key metabolic pathways that permitted the increase in amylase production. Models like i JT964-ME enable the study of proteomic response to stress and the illustrate the potential for optimizing protein production in bacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Microstructure Aware Plasticity Model: Formulation and Usage Guide

Herein, the formulation, parameter sensitivities, and usage methods for the Microstructure-Aware Plasticity (MAP) model are presented. This document is intend to serve as a reference for the underlying theory that constitutes the MAP model and as a practical guide for analysts and future developers on how aspects of this material model influence generalized mechanical behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Network Based Estimation of Wind Farm Power and Velocity Data Under Changing Wind Direction

This paper describes an estimation algorithm for velocity and power output signals in a wind farm under changing wind direction. A graph-theoretic definition describes the wind farm as a collection of nodes (turbines) and time-varying weighted edges (inter-turbine wake propagation) that change as a function of incoming wind direction. The velocity at each turbine is determined through a discrete input-output model. Changes in wind direction serve as the input and the output is defined in terms of a time-varying weighted adjacency matrix that depends on the time-delay of information propagation between turbines. These delays, which are defined in terms of the advection speed of the wind and the distance between the turbines, capture the delayed effect of wind direction changes on the inter-connectivity of the graph as the wind conditions at the farm inlet propagate through the turbine array. An event-based update framework is employed to capture time-dependent topology changes due to shifts in wind direction. Simulation results for dynamically changing wind inlet directions to a circular wind farm are compared to predictions from both the static and dynamic versions of the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model. The approach is shown to enable real-time tracking of dynamic changes to wind farm power output within a framework that can be easily integrated into real-time, horizon-based, control strategies that typically do not account for wind direction changes.

distributed↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Second Skin: A Wearable Sensor Suite that Enables Real-Time Human Biomechanics Tracking Through Deep Learning

Objective: Real-time determination of human kinematics and kinetics could advance biomechanics research and enable valuable applications of biofeedback and generalizable exoskeleton control. Here, this work aims to investigate a taskindependent, user-independent method for obtaining precise realtime joint state estimation across lower-body joints during a wide variety of tasks. Methods: We developed a generalizable sensing approach using a suit comprised of inertial measurement units (IMUs) and pressure insoles. With the suit, we collected a dataset of 33 tasks commonly performed during construction and hazardous waste cleanup (N = 10). We then trained deep learning user-independent, task-agnostic models to estimate joint lowerbody kinematics and dynamics using only worn sensor data. We likewise computed joint kinematics and dynamics analytically from sensor data to serve as a comparison tool for model results. Results: Our models achieved overall angle estimation root-meansquared-errors (RMSE) of 6.56±.92°, 8.60±1.01°, 7.58±.89°, and 6.00±.73° compared to 13.9±.1.3°, 15.31±1.0°, 10.76±.70°, and 7.56±.48° via analytical methods at the lower back, hip, knee, and ankle, respectively. Likewise, our models achieved overall normalized moment estimation RMSEs of .207±.069 Nm/kg, .242±.044 Nm/kg, .202±.038 Nm/kg, and .193±.034 Nm/kg compared to .306±.036 Nm/kg, .407±.021 Nm/kg, 1.18 ±.022 Nm/kg, and 1.73±.071 Nm/kg via analytical methods at the lower back, hip, knee, and ankle, respectively. Conclusion: These results are comparable to other state-of-the-art wearable sensing systems, establishing deep learning as a viable sensing approach that generalizes to new users and tasks. Significance: This work shows promise for enabling accurate real-world biomechanical data collection and enhancement of biofeedback systems and wearable robot control.

Casey, Ryan T. F. [Georgia Institute of Technology↗

Measurement of nuclear interaction cross sections towards neutron-skin thickness determination

The accuracy of reaction theories used to extract properties of exotic nuclei from scattering experiments is often unknown or not quantified, but of utmost importance when, e.g., constraining the equation of state of asymmetric nuclear matter from observables as the neutron-skin thickness. In order to test the Glauber multiple-scattering model, the total interaction cross section of 12 C on carbon targets was measured at initial beam energies of 400, 550, 650, 800, and 1000 MeV/nucleon. The measurements were performed during the first experiment of the newly constructed R 3 B (Reaction with Relativistic Radioactive Beams) experiment after the start of FAIR Phase-0 at the GSI/FAIR facility with beam energies of 400, 550, 650, 800, and 1000 MeV/nucleon. The combination of the large-acceptance dipole magnet GLAD and a newly designed and highly efficient Time-of-Flight detector enabled a precise transmission measurement with several target thicknesses for each initial beam energy with an experimental uncertainty of ±0.4%. A comparison with the Glauber model revealed a discrepancy of around 3.1% at higher beam energies, which will serve as a crucial baseline for the model-dependent uncertainty in future fragmentation experiments.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

A Novel use of Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo to Model Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread

In this report, we evaluate a novel method for modeling the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. In this new approach we leverage methods and algorithms developed for fully-kinetic plasma physics simulations using Particle-In-Cell (PIC) Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) models. This approach then leverages Sandia-unique simulation capabilities, and High-Performance Computer (HPC) resources and expertise in particle-particle interactions using stochastic processes. Our hypothesis is that this approach would provide a more efficient platform with assumptions based on physical data that would then enable the user to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and forecast different phases of infection. This work addresses key scientific questions related to the assumptions this new approach must make to model the interactions of people using algorithms typically used for modeling particle interactions in physics codes (kinetic plasma, gas dynamics). The model developed uses rational/physical inputs while also providing critical insight; the results could serve as inputs to, or alternatives for, existing models. The model work presented was developed over a four-week time frame, thus far showing promising results and many ways in which this model/approach could be improved. This work is aimed at providing a proof-of-concept for this new pandemic modeling approach, which could have an immediate impact on the COVID-19 pandemic modeling, while laying a basis to model future pandemic scenarios in a manner that is timely and efficient. Additionally, this new approach provides new visualization tools to help epidemiologists comprehend and articulate the spread of this and other pandemics as well as a more general tool to determine key parameters needed in order to better predict pandemic modeling in the future. In the report we describe our model for pandemic modeling, apply this model to COVID-19 data for New York City (NYC), assess model sensitivities to different inputs and parameters and , finally, propagate the model forward under different conditions to assess the effects of mitigation and associated timing. Finally, our approach will help understand the role of asymptomatic cases, and could be extended to elucidate the role of recovered individuals in the second round of the infection, which is currently being ignored.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of transient conduction in building envelope assemblies: A review

As buildings age, retrofits are becoming an increasingly important topic for the ever-growing and aging existing building stock. To compare designs or evaluate in-service building envelopes, thermal modeling is utilized to evaluate the thermal performance of envelope assemblies; however, it can be difficult to model the thermal performance of as-built assemblies due to degradation or missing documentation. To address this issue, inverse modeling can be applied to infer the properties of as-built envelope assemblies. This paper presents a review of the literature and published methods to model and infer the transient conductive performance of building envelopes. This review serves as a survey of existing transient conduction algorithms to evaluate performance, computational speed, and relevance for inverse modeling applications. In addition to the literature review, this work also evaluates the computational performance of the most prevalent transient conduction algorithms against the ASHRAE 1052RP toolkit to assess inverse modeling potential. This methodology serves as a foundation for future research to characterize the transient thermal performance of as-built building envelope assemblies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗