Simulating and Forecasting El Nino with a Dynamic Ocean-Atmosphere Model and Sea Level Data
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El Nino forecasting baroclinic model sea surface t↗
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Analysis of UARS data in the Southern Polar Vortex n September, 1992 Using a Chemical Transport Model
We have used a new, isentropic-coordinate three-dimensional chemical transport model to investigate the decay of C1O and evolution of other species in the Antarctic polar vortex during September, 1992. The model simulations cover the same southern hemisphere period studied in a companion data paper by Santee et al.
chemical transport model Antarctic polar vortex↗
Diurnal and Directional Responses of Chlorophyll Fluorescence and the PRI in a Cornfield
Determining the health and vigor of vegetation using high spectral resolution remote sensing is an important goal which has application to monitoring agriculture and ecosystem productivity and carbon exchange. Two spectral indices used to assess whether vegetation is performing near-optimally or exhibiting symptoms of environmental stress (e.g., drought or nutrient deficiency, non-optimal temperatures, etc.) are the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) and solar-induced red and far-red Chlorophyll Fluorescence (Fs). Both the PRI and Fs capture the dynamics of photoprotection mechanisms within green foliage: the PRI is based on the association of the reflected radiation in the green spectrum with the xanthophyll cycle, whereas Fs measures the emitted radiation in the red and far-red spectrum. Fs was determined from retrievals in the atmospheric oxygen absorption features centered at 688 and 760 nm using a modified Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) method. We previously demonstrated diurnal and seasonal PRI differences for sunlit vs. shaded foliage in a conifer forest canopy, as expressed in the hotspot and darkspot of the Bidirectional Reflectance Function (BRF). In a USDA-ARS experimental field site located in Beltsville, MD, USA, measurements were acquired over a corn crop from a nadir view in 2008 with an ASD FieldSpec Pro (Analytical Spectral Devices, Inc., Boulder, CO, USA) to study the behavior of the PRI for sunlit and shaded foliage as captured in reflectance variations associated with the BRF, in a I m tall canopy in the vegetative growth stage. Those observations were compared to simulations obtained from two radiative transfer models. Measurements were then acquired to examine whether the PRI and Fs were influenced by view zenith and azimuth geometries at different times of day. Those measurements were made in 2010 with the Ocean Optics USB4000 Miniature Fiber Optic Spectrometer (Ocean Optics Inc., Dunedin, Florida, USA) at several times during the day on multiple days throughout the growing season. We found that the PRI consistently had higher values, indicating lower stress, in the BRF darkspot associated with shaded foliage than in the hotspot associated with sunlit foliage. We also found that Fs exhibited differences associated with sunlit and shaded canopy sectors, which were most pronounced for the red/far-red Fs ratio. Values indicated greater physiological stress in afternoons compared to mornings, and in the early senescent canopy as compared to the vegetative growth stage, BRFs for both the PRI and the red/far-red Fs ratio were bowl-shaped for the full azimuth sweep of the canopy. These two spectral indices (PRI, Fs ratio) provided complementary information on the photosynthetic function of the corn canopy.
Middleton, Elizabeth↗
Estimates for the Aerodynamic Coefficients of Ringsail and Disk-Gap-Band Parachutes Operating on Mars
The creation of flight dynamics simulations is often part of the design, development, and flight operations of missions that include entry, descent, and landing (EDL) in their concept of operation. Such flight dynamics simulations include models for many of the EDL sub-systems. For EDL systems that include a parachute, models of the parachute’s aerodynamic characteristics must be created for inclusion in the flight dynamics simulations. Models are presented for the aerodynamic coefficients (i.e., C(D),C(Tot),C(T),C(N), and C(m,SLCP)) of Supersonic Ringsail (SSRS) and Disk-Gap-Band (DGB) parachutes as functions of total porosity, λ(T), Mach number, M, and total angle of attack, λ(T) (when necessary). The source aerodynamic coefficients data used for creating these models were obtained from a wind tunnel test of subscale parachutes. In this wind tunnel test, subscale parachutes of both parachute types were fabricated from two different fabrics with very different permeabilities. By varying the fabric permeability, while maintaining the parachute geometry constant, it was possible to vary λ(T). The fabric permeability test data necessary for the calculation of λ(T) were obtained from samples of the same fabrics used to fabricate the subscale parachutes. Although the models for the aerodynamic coefficients are simple polynomial functions of λ(T) and M, they are capable of producing good reproductions of the source data. The (λ(T), M) domains over which these models are applicable are clearly defined. The models and their domains are applicable to flight operations on Mars. The models presented in this report are not unique – other models could be created from the source data. To make the creation of alternative numerical models, the aerodynamic coefficients source data are included in this report.
Cruz, Juan R.↗
Assessing Version 4 of the SMAP L4_SM Data Product
Version 4 of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product benefits from an improved land surface modeling system. Surface soil moisture is typically drier by several volumetric percent in Version 4 compared to Version 3, whereas root zone soil moisture is wetter in Version 4 in some regions and drier in others. Results from core validation site comparisons show that Version 4 of the L4_SM data product meets the accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the RMSE after removal of the long-term mean difference (ubRMSE). The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM data at the 9 km scale is 0.039 m3 m-3 for surface soil moisture and 0.029 m3 m-3 for root zone soil moisture, below the 0.04 m3 m-3 requirement. L4_SM surface and root zone soil moisture estimates are more skillful than model-only simulation estimates that are not informed by SMAP brightness temperature observations, with statistically significant improvements at the 5% level for surface soil moisture R and anomaly R values. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from more than 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results.
Reichle, R.↗
Rapid Aero Modeling for Urban Air Mobility Aircraft in Wind-Tunnel Tests
Rapid Aero Modeling (RAM) applied to wind tunnel testing, RAM-T, is an approach to efficiently and automatically obtain aerodynamic models during testing. The approach saves time and resources by responding to the demand for experimental efficiency and model fidelity. Motivation for this demand is more acute when investigating a class of vehicles categorized as Urban Air Mobility (UAM) aircraft where many features from both aircraft and rotorcraft are present. RAM-T provides a feedback loop around the test facility to guide the test toward high-fidelity, statistically rigorous aircraft models. The general RAM approach is applicable to computational or physical experiments. It combines concepts from design of experiment theory and aircraft system identification theory that allow the user the freedom to choose, in advance of the test, a specific level of fidelity in terms of prediction error. RAM only collects data required to meet the user-specified fidelity and fidelity is only limited by the facility and test article capabilities. This paper presents results from tests conducted for development of an automated RAM-T technology. The results highlight some of the unique features of RAM applied to eVTOL configurations.
Aerodynamics↗
Performance degradation of a model helicopter rotor with a generic ice shape
An experimental program using a commercially available remotely controlled model helicopter in the Texas A&M University (TAMU) subsonic wind tunnel has been conducted to investigate the performance degradation resulting from the simulated formation of ice on the leading edge of the main rotor blades in both hover and forward flight. The rotor blades utilized a NACA 0012 airfoil with a 2.5-in. constant chord. A generic ice shape derived from a predetermined natural ice condition was applied to the 53.375-in.-diameter main rotor, and thrust and torque coefficients were measured for the main rotor as functions of velocity, main rotor rpm, fuselage angle of incidence, collective pitch angle, and spanwise extent of icing. The model helicopter test exhibited significant performance degradation of the main rotor when generic ice was added. An increase of approximately 150 percent in torque coefficient to maintain a constant thrust coefficient was noted when generic ice had been applied to the 85 percent rotor radial location. Also, considerable additional degradation occurred when generic ice was applied to the 100 percent rotor radial location, as compared with the 85 percent simulated ice performance values, indicating the sensitivity of the rotor tip region.
Korkan, K. D.↗
A simulation study of scene confusion factors in sensing soil moisture from orbital radar
Simulated C-band radar imagery for a 124-km by 108-km test site in eastern Kansas is used to classify soil moisture. Simulated radar resolutions are 100 m by 100 m, 1 km by 1km, and 3 km by 3 km. Distributions of actual near-surface soil moisture are established daily for a 23-day accounting period using a water budget model. Within the 23-day period, three orbital radar overpasses are simulated roughly corresponding to generally moist, wet, and dry soil moisture conditions. The radar simulations are performed by a target/sensor interaction model dependent upon a terrain model, land-use classification, and near-surface soil moisture distribution. The accuracy of soil-moisture classification is evaluated for each single-date radar observation and also for multi-date detection of relative soil moisture change. In general, the results for single-date moisture detection show that 70% to 90% of cropland can be correctly classified to within +/- 20% of the true percent of field capacity. For a given radar resolution, the expected classification accuracy is shown to be dependent upon both the general soil moisture condition and also the geographical distribution of land-use and topographic relief. An analysis of cropland, urban, pasture/rangeland, and woodland subregions within the test site indicates that multi-temporal detection of relative soil moisture change is least sensitive to classification error resulting from scene complexity and topographic effects.
Ulaby, F. T.↗
A comparison of measured and calculated upwelling radiance over water as a function of sensor altitude
A comparison is made between remote sensing data measured over water at altitudes ranging from 30 m to 15.2 km and data calculated for corresponding altitudes using surface measurements and an atmospheric radiative transfer model. Data were acquired on June 22, 1978 in Lake Erie, a cloudless, calm, near haze free day. Suspended solids and chlorophyll concentrations were 0.59 + or - 0.02 mg/1 and 2.42 + or - 0.03 micrograms/1 respectively throughout the duration of the experiment. Remote sensor data were acquired by two multispectral scanners each having 10 bands between 410 nm and 1040 nm. Calculated and measured nadir radiances for altitudes of 152 m and 12.5 km agree to within 16% and 14% respectively. The variation in measured radiance with look angle was poorly simulated by the model. It was concluded that an accurate assessment of the source of error will require the inclusion in the analysis of the contributions made by the sea state and specular sky reflectance.
Coney, T. A.↗
Longwave Band-by-band Cloud Radiative Effect and its Application in GCM Evaluation
The cloud radiative effect (CRE) of each longwave (LW) absorption band of a GCM fs radiation code is uniquely valuable for GCM evaluation because (1) comparing band-by-band CRE avoids the compensating biases in the broadband CRE comparison and (2) the fractional contribution of each band to the LW broadband CRE (f(sub CRE)) is sensitive to cloud top height but largely insensitive to cloud fraction, presenting thus a diagnostic metric to separate the two macroscopic properties of clouds. Recent studies led by the first author have established methods to derive such band ]by ]band quantities from collocated AIRS and CERES observations. We present here a study that compares the observed band-by-band CRE over the tropical oceans with those simulated by three different atmospheric GCMs (GFDL AM2, NASA GEOS-5, and CCCma CanAM4) forced by observed SST. The models agree with observation on the annual ]mean LW broadband CRE over the tropical oceans within +/-1W/sq m. However, the differences among these three GCMs in some bands can be as large as or even larger than +/-1W/sq m. Observed seasonal cycles of f(sub CRE) in major bands are shown to be consistent with the seasonal cycle of cloud top pressure for both the amplitude and the phase. However, while the three simulated seasonal cycles of f(sub CRE) agree with observations on the phase, the amplitudes are underestimated. Simulated interannual anomalies from GFDL AM2 and CCCma CanAM4 are in phase with observed anomalies. The spatial distribution of f(sub CRE) highlights the discrepancies between models and observation over the low-cloud regions and the compensating biases from different bands.
Huang, Xianglei↗
Statistics of the cosmic Mach number from numerical simulations of a cold dark matter universe
Results are presented of an analysis of the cosmic Mach number, M, the ratio of the streaming velocity, v, to the random velocity dispersion, sigma, of galaxies in a given patch of the universe, which was performed on the basis of hydrodynamical simulations of the cold dark matter scenario. Galaxy formation is modeled by application of detailed physical processes rather than by the ad hoc assumption of 'bias' between dark matter and galaxy fluctuations. The correlation between M and sigma is found to be very weak for both components. No evidence is found for a physical 'velocity bias' in the quantities which appear in the definition of M. Standard cold-dark-matter-dominated universes are in conflict, at a statistically significant level, with the available observation, in that they predict a Mach number considerably lower than is observed.
Suto, Yasushi↗
The use of stellite scatterometer winds to drive a primitive equation model of the Indian Ocean: The impact of bandlike sampling
The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the bandlike sampling of spaceborne scatterometers on the ability of scatterometer winds to successfully force the mean flow and seasonal cycle of an ocean model in the context of equatorial and tropical dynamics. The equatorial ocean is simulated with a four-layer, primitive equation, reduced gravity model of the Indian Ocean. The variable wind stress used in this study is derived from one year (1988) of 6-hour analyses of the 10-m wind vector over the Indian Ocean performed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). It is applied as a forcing at every grid point of the model to drive a reference circulation. Scatterometer winds are simulated from ECMWF winds, using the nominal configurations and orbital parameters of the European Remote Sensing 1 (ERS-1) and NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) missions. The model is forced in real time under swaths with the raw scatterometer winds of ERS-1 and NSCAT, with a persistence condition (i.e., the wind is kept constsnt until the next passage of the satellite provides a new value). The circulation obtained for each of the scatterometer experiments is compared with the reference circulation. The seasonal circulation of the Indian Ocean with NSCAT winds is very similar to the reference. The perturbations introduced by the bandlike sampling and the persistance condition have an impact similar to that of a small uncorrelated noise added to the reference forcing. The persistence condition for ERS-1 does not give results which are as good as those obtained for NSCAT.
Barnier, Bernard↗
How the Assumed Size Distribution of Dust Minerals Affects the Predicted Ice Forming Nuclei
The formation of ice in clouds depends on the availability of ice forming nuclei (IFN). Dust aerosol particles are considered the most important source of IFN at a global scale. Recent laboratory studies have demonstrated that the mineral feldspar provides the most efficient dust IFN for immersion freezing and together with kaolinite for deposition ice nucleation, and that the phyllosilicates illite and montmorillonite (a member of the smectite group) are of secondary importance.A few studies have applied global models that simulate mineral specific dust to predict the number and geographical distribution of IFN. These studies have been based on the simple assumption that the mineral composition of soil as provided in data sets from the literature translates directly into the mineral composition of the dust aerosols. However, these tables are based on measurements of wet-sieved soil where dust aggregates are destroyed to a large degree. In consequence, the size distribution of dust is shifted to smaller sizes, and phyllosilicates like illite, kaolinite, and smectite are only found in the size range 2 m. In contrast, in measurements of the mineral composition of dust aerosols, the largest mass fraction of these phyllosilicates is found in the size range 2 m as part of dust aggregates. Conversely, the mass fraction of feldspar is smaller in this size range, varying with the geographical location. This may have a significant effect on the predicted IFN number and its geographical distribution.An improved mineral specific dust aerosol module has been recently implemented in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2. The dust module takes into consideration the disaggregated state of wet-sieved soil, on which the tables of soil mineral fractions are based. To simulate the atmospheric cycle of the minerals, the mass size distribution of each mineral in aggregates that are emitted from undispersed parent soil is reconstructed. In the current study, we test the null-hypothesis that simulating the presence of a large mass fraction of phyllosilicates in dust aerosols in the size range 2 m, in comparison to a simple model assumption where this is neglected, does not yield a significant effect on the magnitude and geographical distribution of the predicted IFN number. Results from sensitivity experiments are presented as well.
Dust↗
Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup
A new research effort at NASA Ames Research Center has been initiated in Planetary Defense, which integrates the disciplines of planetary science, atmospheric entry physics, and physics-based risk assessment. This paper describes work within the new program and is focused on meteor entry and breakup. Over the last six decades significant effort was expended in the US and in Europe to understand meteor entry including ablation, fragmentation and airburst (if any) for various types of meteors ranging from stony to iron spectral types. These efforts have produced primarily empirical mathematical models based on observations. Weaknesses of these models, apart from their empiricism, are reliance on idealized shapes (spheres, cylinders, etc.) and simplified models for thermal response of meteoritic materials to aerodynamic and radiative heating. Furthermore, the fragmentation and energy release of meteors (airburst) is poorly understood. On the other hand, flight of human-made atmospheric entry capsules is well understood. The capsules and their requisite heatshields are designed and margined to survive entry. However, the highest speed Earth entry for capsules is less than 13 km/s (Stardust). Furthermore, Earth entry capsules have never exceeded diameters of 5 m, nor have their peak aerothermal environments exceeded 0.3 atm and 1 kW/cm2. The aims of the current work are: (i) to define the aerothermal environments for objects with entry velocities from 13 to greater than 20 km/s; (ii) to explore various hypotheses of fragmentation and airburst of stony meteors in the near term; (iii) to explore the possibility of performing relevant ground-based tests to verify candidate hypotheses; and (iv) to quantify the energy released in airbursts. The results of the new simulations will be used to anchor said risk assessment analyses. With these aims in mind, state-of-the-art entry capsule design tools are being extended for meteor entries. We describe: (i) applications of current simulation tools to spherical geometries of diameters ranging from 1 to 100 m for an entry velocity of 20 km/s and stagnation pressures ranging from 1 to 100 atm; (ii) the influence of shape and departure of heating environment predictions from those for a simple spherical geometry; (iii) assessment of thermal response models for silica subject to intense radiation; and (iv) results for porosity-driven gross fragmentation of meteors, idealized as a collection of smaller objects. Lessons learned from these simulations will be used to help understand the Chelyabinsk meteor entry up to its first point of fragmentation.
Aerothermodynamics↗
Modeling Validation and Its Design Relevance for NTP Fuel Elements
The development of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion engines depends heavily on modeling and simulation of a number of disciplines—neutronic / fluid / thermal / structural are only a start. Further, rockets involve extreme conditions, particularly high material temperatures in the nuclear fuel. This paper considers validation of the underling physical models and codes and how their accuracy influences several design challenges. Several issues are identified, where models, material data, could enable design solutions. In particular, thermal and CTE mismatch stresses are a concern, and stress predictions would benefit from improved mechanical property data at high temperatures. Nuclear inter-element heating causes propellant flow maldistribution and performance risks, but a simple model provides insights. High temperature chemical diffusion should be modeled to understand fuel element mass loss.
Nuclear Propulsion↗
Modeling Validation and Its Design Relevance for NTP Fuel Elements
The development of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion engines depends heavily on modeling and simulation of a number of disciplines—neutronic / fluid / thermal / structural are only a start. Further, rockets involve extreme conditions, particularly high material temperatures in the nuclear fuel. This paper considers validation of the underling physical models and codes and how their accuracy influences several design challenges. Several issues are identified, where models, material data, could enable design solutions. In particular, thermal and CTE mismatch stresses are a concern, and stress predictions would benefit from improved mechanical property data at high temperatures. Nuclear inter-element heating causes propellant flow maldistribution and performance risks, but a simple model provides insights. High temperature chemical diffusion should be modeled to understand fuel element mass loss.
Nuclear Propulsion↗
Aircraft microwave observations and simulations of deep convection from 18 to 183 GHz. II - Model results
In this June 29, 1986 case study, a radiative transfer model is used to simulate the aircraft multichannel microwave brightness temperatures presented in the Adler et al. (1990) paper and to study the convective storm structure. Ground-based radar data are used to derive hydrometeor profiles of the storm, based on which the microwave upwelling brightness temperatures are calculated. Various vertical hydrometeor phase profiles and the Marshall and Palmer (M-P, 1948) and Sekhon and Srivastava (S-S, 1970) ice particle size distributions are experimented in the model. The results are compared with the aircraft radiometric data. The comparison reveals that the M-P distribution well represents the ice particle size distribution, especially in the upper tropospheric portion of the cloud; the S-S distribution appears to better simulate the ice particle size at the lower portion of the cloud, which has a greater effect on the low-frequency microwave upwelling brightness temperatures; and that, in deep convective regions, significant supercooled liquid water (about 0.5 g/cu m) may be present up to the -30 C layer, while in less convective areas, frozen hydrometeors are predominant above -10 C level.
Yeh, Hwa-Young M.↗
Sammie II - Scheduling analysis model for ATM experiments
Computer scheduling model and timeline plot for Apollo Telescope Module /ATM/ experiments using orbital trajectory simulation
Brunschwig, M. G.↗