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NASA NTRS1974

A Monte Carlo investigation of experimental data requirements for fitting polynomial functions

This report examines the extent to which sample size affects the accuracy of a low order polynomial approximation of an experimentally observed quantity and establishes a trend toward improvement in the accuracy of the approximation as a function of sample size. The task is made possible through a simulated analysis carried out by the Monte Carlo method, in which data are generated by using several transcendental or algebraic functions as models. Contaminated data of varying amounts are fitted to linear quadratic or cubic polynomials, and the behavior of the mean-squared error of the residual variance is determined as a function of sample size. Results indicate that the effect of the size of the sample is significant only for relatively small sample sizes and diminishes drastically for moderate and large amounts of experimental data.

Canavos, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Analysis of the Patterns of Radiation-Induced DNA Damage Foci by a Stochastic Monte Carlo Model of DNA Double Strand Breaks Induction by Heavy Ions and Image Segmentation Software

To create a generalized mechanistic model of DNA damage in human cells that will generate analytical and image data corresponding to experimentally observed DNA damage foci and will help to improve the experimental foci yields by simulating spatial foci patterns and resolving problems with quantitative image analysis. Material and Methods: The analysis of patterns of RIFs (radiation-induced foci) produced by low- and high-LET (linear energy transfer) radiation was conducted by using a Monte Carlo model that combines the heavy ion track structure with characteristics of the human genome on the level of chromosomes. The foci patterns were also simulated in the maximum projection plane for flat nuclei. Some data analysis was done with the help of image segmentation software that identifies individual classes of RIFs and colocolized RIFs, which is of importance to some experimental assays that assign DNA damage a dual phosphorescent signal. Results: The model predicts the spatial and genomic distributions of DNA DSBs (double strand breaks) and associated RIFs in a human cell nucleus for a particular dose of either low- or high-LET radiation. We used the model to do analyses for different irradiation scenarios. In the beam-parallel-to-the-disk-of-a-flattened-nucleus scenario we found that the foci appeared to be merged due to their high density, while, in the perpendicular-beam scenario, the foci appeared as one bright spot per hit. The statistics and spatial distribution of regions of densely arranged foci, termed DNA foci chains, were predicted numerically using this model. Another analysis was done to evaluate the number of ion hits per nucleus, which were visible from streaks of closely located foci. In another analysis, our image segmentaiton software determined foci yields directly from images with single-class or colocolized foci. Conclusions: We showed that DSB clustering needs to be taken into account to determine the true DNA damage foci yield, which helps to determine the DSB yield. Using the model analysis, a researcher can refine the DSB yield per nucleus per particle. We showed that purely geometric artifacts, present in the experimental images, can be analytically resolved with the model, and that the quantization of track hits and DSB yields can be provided to the experimentalists who use enumeration of radiation-induced foci in immunofluorescence experiments using proteins that detect DNA damage. An automated image segmentaiton software can prove useful in a faster and more precise object counting for colocolized foci images.

Ponomarev, Artem↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simultaneous Development and Robust Optimization of a Microstructure Dependent Material

Recent microstructure characterization techniques combined with Symbolic Regression(SR)analysis has been proven to generate white box plasticity models well suited for incorporation into FEA software.The current work builds upon those efforts and demonstrates the applicability of Sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) methods within SR analysis to condense model development and robust optimization into a single, co-dependent process. In this project, SMC methods provide a mechanism through which the observed microstructure features and associated variability can be incorporated into the discovery phase of model development and simultaneously recover approximate parameter distributions through SR analysis. The demonstration utilized a data set consisting of tensile test results from a limited number of sample specimens with corresponding EBSD data from which microstructure features were characterized.The maximum threshold stress model in the Visco-Plastic Self-Consistent (VPSC) code developed by Los Alamos National Laboratories was calibrated using mechanical test data.Synthetic volume elements with statistically equivalent microstructure were generated with DREAM3Dbased on the observed EBSD data. VPSC was used to simulate the corresponding tensile test response for each of the synthetic volume elements. The simulated microstructure and tensile test data was used astraining datafor SMC-SR algorithm and the resulting model was validated with data from the original empirical data set.

Karl Garbrecht↗

NASA NTRS2001

Preliminary Results From The First Flight of ATIC

The Advanced Thin Ionization Calorimeter (ATIC) instrument is designed to measure the composition and energy spectra of Z = 1 to 28 cosmic rays over the energy range approximately 10 GeV - 100 TeV. The instrument was calibrated in September 1999 at CERN using accelerated electron, proton and pion beams. ATIC was launched as a long duration balloon test flight on 12/28/00 local time from McMurdo, Antarctica. After flying successfully for about 16 days the payload was recovered in excellent condition. Absolute calibration of the detector response was made using cosmic-ray muons. The data analysis algorithm which was developed with Monte Carlo simulations and validated with the CERN beam test will be used for the flight data analysis. Preliminary results of the proton and helium spectra will be reported in this paper.

Seo, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Preliminary Results From the First Flight of ATIC

The Advanced Thin Ionization Calorimeter (ATIC) instrument is designed to measure the composition C and energy spectra of Z = 1 to 28 cosmic rays over the energy range approximately 10 GeV - 100 TeV. The instrument was calibrated in September 1999 at CERN using accelerated electron, proton and pion beams. ATIC was launched as a long duration balloon test flight on 12/28/00 local time from McMurdo, Antarctica. After flying successfully for about 16 days the payload was recovered in excellent condition. Absolute calibration of the detector response was made using cosmic-ray muons. The data analysis algorithm which was developed with Monte Carlo simulations and validated with the CERN beam test will be used for the flight data analysis. Preliminary results of the protons and C helium spectra will be reported in this paper.

Seo, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of vibrational-translational energy transfer using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method

A new model is proposed for energy transfer between the vibrational and translational modes for use in the direct simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC). The model modifies the Landau-Teller theory for a harmonic oscillator and the rate transition is related to an experimental correlation for the vibrational relaxation time. Assessment of the model is made with respect to three different computations: relaxation in a heat bath, a one-dimensional shock wave, and hypersonic flow over a two-dimensional wedge. These studies verify that the model achieves detailed balance, and excellent agreement with experimental data is obtained in the shock wave calculation. The wedge flow computation reveals that the usual phenomenological method for simulating vibrational nonequilibrium in the DSMC technique predicts much higher vibrational temperatures in the wake region.

Boyd, Iain D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Parallelizing Timed Petri Net simulations

The possibility of using parallel processing to accelerate the simulation of Timed Petri Nets (TPN's) was studied. It was recognized that complex system development tools often transform system descriptions into TPN's or TPN-like models, which are then simulated to obtain information about system behavior. Viewed this way, it was important that the parallelization of TPN's be as automatic as possible, to admit the possibility of the parallelization being embedded in the system design tool. Later years of the grant were devoted to examining the problem of joint performance and reliability analysis, to explore whether both types of analysis could be accomplished within a single framework. In this final report, the results of our studies are summarized. We believe that the problem of parallelizing TPN's automatically for MIMD architectures has been almost completely solved for a large and important class of problems. Our initial investigations into joint performance/reliability analysis are two-fold; it was shown that Monte Carlo simulation, with importance sampling, offers promise of joint analysis in the context of a single tool, and methods for the parallel simulation of general Continuous Time Markov Chains, a model framework within which joint performance/reliability models can be cast, were developed. However, very much more work is needed to determine the scope and generality of these approaches. The results obtained in our two studies, future directions for this type of work, and a list of publications are included.

Nicol, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Design and Application of the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool

Conducting human exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will present unique challenges in the areas of supportability and maintainability. The durations of proposed missions can be relatively long and re-supply of logistics, including maintenance and repair items, will be limited or non-existent. In addition, mass and volume constraints in the transportation system will limit the total amount of logistics that can be flown along with the crew. These constraints will require that new strategies be developed with regards to how spacecraft systems are designed and maintained. NASA is currently developing Design Reference Missions (DRMs) as an initial step in defining future human missions. These DRMs establish destinations and concepts of operation for future missions, and begin to define technology and capability requirements. Because of the unique supportability challenges, historical supportability data and models are not directly applicable for establishing requirements for beyond LEO missions. However, supportability requirements could have a major impact on the development of the DRMs. The mass, volume, and crew resources required to support the mission could all be first order drivers in the design of missions, elements, and operations. Therefore, there is a need for enhanced analysis capabilities to more accurately establish mass, volume, and time requirements for supporting beyond LEO missions. Additionally, as new technologies and operations are proposed to reduce these requirements, it is necessary to have accurate tools to evaluate the efficacy of those approaches. In order to improve the analysis of supportability requirements for beyond LEO missions, the Space Missions Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center is developing the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT). This tool is a probabilistic simulator that evaluates the need for repair and maintenance activities during space missions and the logistics and crew requirements to support those activities. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the tool simulates potential failures in defined systems, based on established component reliabilities, and then evaluates the capability of the crew to repair those failures given a defined store of spares and maintenance items. Statistical analysis of Monte Carlo runs provides probabilistic estimates of overall mission safety and reliability. This paper will describe the operation of the EMAT, including historical data sources used to populate the model, simulation processes, and outputs. Analysis results are provided for a candidate exploration system, including baseline estimates of required sparing mass and volume. Sensitivity analysis regarding the effectiveness of proposed strategies to reduce mass and volume requirements and improve mission reliability is included in these results.

Stromgren, Chel↗

NASA NTRS1974

An empirical analysis of the quantitative effect of data when fitting quadratic and cubic polynomials

A study is made of the extent to which the size of the sample affects the accuracy of a quadratic or a cubic polynomial approximation of an experimentally observed quantity, and the trend with regard to improvement in the accuracy of the approximation as a function of sample size is established. The task is made possible through a simulated analysis carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which data are simulated by using several transcendental or algebraic functions as models. Contaminated data of varying amounts are fitted to either quadratic or cubic polynomials, and the behavior of the mean-squared error of the residual variance is determined as a function of sample size. Results indicate that the effect of the size of the sample is significant only for relatively small sizes and diminishes drastically for moderate and large amounts of experimental data.

Canavos, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Splash evaluation of SRB designs

A technique is developed to optimize the shuttle solid rocket booster (SRB) design for water impact loads. The SRB is dropped by parachute and recovered at sea for reuse. Loads experienced at water impact are design critical. The probability of each water impact load is determined using a Monte Carlo technique and an aerodynamic analysis of the SRB parachute system. Meteorological effects are included and four configurations are evaluated.

Counter, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Technical feasibility of a modular dish solar electric system

The paper presents the technical feasibility of generating electricity by using a gas turbine in conjunction with a paraboloid of revolution (dish) solar concentrator. A conceptual design of a dish concentrator is obtained by parametrically examining the significant optical parameters. The optical performance analysis was conducted using a Monte Carlo ray-trace simulation program. The performance of four candidate thermodynamic cycles utilizing two working fluids was analyzed; the cycles were the regenerative and nonregenerative Brayton cycles of both open and closed type. Air and helium were the working fluids for the open and closed type respectively. Heat transfer from the solar radiation to the gas flowing in metal tubes at the receiver was also analyzed. A paraboloid of revolution dish with a cavity receiver using an open air regenerative Brayton cycle turbine emerged as a technically feasible concept in the power range from 30 to 100 KWth per module.

Gupta, B. P.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Monte Carlo solution of Boltzmann equation for a simple model of highly nonequilibrium diatomic gases - Translational rotational energy relaxation

Theoretical results pertaining to internally excited translational-rotational energy relaxation in a spatially uniform diatomic gas far removed from solid boundaries are obtained by solving the Boltzmann equation by means of the Monte Carlo direct simulation method. The analysis is based on calculations involving three different types of initial conditions: equilibrium, nonequilibrium-equipartition (i.e., equipartition is satisfied, but the distributions are perturbed), and nonequilibrium-nonequipartition (i.e., both equipartition and the distributions are perturbed). Results of monatomic-gas simulations are also included to facilitate comparisons with the coupled translational-rotational relaxation simulations, and some simulations for a normal shock-wave structure are briefly examined. The results show that: (1) single-step transitions are the significant mechanisms of intermodal energy transfer; (2) translational-rotational transitions are coupled most efficiently for low-lying states of rotationally excited molecules and least efficiently for highly rotationally excited molecules; and (3) relaxation occurs via a successive set of distributions that are not Maxwell-Boltzmann (nonlocal Maxwellian).

Yoshikawa, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Modeling of thin-film GaAs growth

Efforts to produce a Monte Carlo computer program for the analysis of crystal growth are briefly discussed. A literature survey was conducted of articles relating to the subject. A list of references reviewed is presented.

Heinbockel, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. II - Correlation and regression

Statistical methods for calculating correlations and regressions in bivariate censored data where the dependent variable can have upper or lower limits are presented. Cox's regression and the generalization of Kendall's rank correlation coefficient provide significant levels of correlations, and the EM algorithm, under the assumption of normally distributed errors, and its nonparametric analog using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, give estimates for the slope of a regression line. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that survival analysis is reliable in determining correlations between luminosities at different bands. Survival analysis is applied to CO emission in infrared galaxies, X-ray emission in radio galaxies, H-alpha emission in cooling cluster cores, and radio emission in Seyfert galaxies.

Isobe, T.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cometary atmospheres: Modeling the spatial distribution of observed neutral radicals

Progress during the second year of a program of research on the modeling of the spatial distributions of cometary radicals is discussed herein in several major areas. New scale length laws for cometary C2 and CN were determined which explain that the previously-held apparent drop of the C2/CN ratio for large heliocentric distances does not exist and that there is no systematic variation. Monte Carlo particle trajectory model (MCPTM) analysis of sunward and anti-sunward brightness profiles of cometary C2 was completed. This analysis implies a lifetime of 31,000 seconds for the C2 parent and an ejection speed for C2 of approximately 0.5 km/sec upon dissociation from the parent. A systematic reanalysis of published C3 and OH data was begun. Preliminary results find a heliocentric distance dependence for C3 scale lengths with a much larger variation than for C2 and CN. Scale lengths for OH are generally somewhat larger than currently accepted values. The MCPTM was updated to include the coma temperature. Finally, the collaborative effort with the University of Arizona programs has yielded some preliminary CCD images of Comet P/Halley.

Combi, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Ku-band interferences for the Space Station multiple access link

The multiple access (MA) system, an essential part of the United States Space Station, will be used to provide simultaneous communication services, voice and command, telemetry and video, between the Space Station and all the different coorbiting user vehicles. The system is designed to operate in the Ku-band frequencies between 14 GHz and 14.89 GHz. Within this band, there are other users that could pose serious interference potential. The extent of the interference and its impact on the system operations are analyzed using a Monte Carlo simulation. Worst-case analysis indicated that certain links are very susceptible to interference. Mitigation techniques involving both hardware changes and operation constraints are presented. With the modification of some of the design and implementation of some of the mitigation techniques, the interference levels were found to be only a few percent and to occur in a burst manner.

Loh, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Design Issues of GaAs and AlGaAs Delta-Doped p-i-n Quantum-Well APD's

We examine the basic design issues in the optimization of GaAs delta-doped and AlGAs delta-doped quantum-well avalanche photodiode (APD) structures using a theoretical analysis based on an ensemble Monte Carlo simulation. The devices are variations of the p-i-n doped quantum-well structure previously described in the literature. They have the same low-noise, high-gain and high-bandwidth features as the p-i-n doped quantum-well device. However, the use of delta doping provides far greater control or the doping concentrations within each stage possibly enhancing the extent to which the device can be depleted. As a result, it is expected that the proposed devices will operate at higher gain levels (at very low noise) than devices previously developed.

Wang, Yang↗