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DOE OSTI2025

Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM SciDAC) (Technical Final Report)

Runaway electrons can severely damage the plasma facing components on ITER during a major disruption and pose a major risk for tokamak fusion. It has been recognized that an adequate disruption mitigation system (DMS) is essential for the safe operation of ITER. The United States is responsible for the design and implementation of the disruption mitigation system on ITER, and in July 2016 the Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM) was launched by DOE, in a joint Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) collaboration. SCREAM was a comprehensive theory and simulation SciDAC center that provided physics guidance in the avoidance and mitigation of runaway electrons, and in tandem with domestic and international experiments, helped establish the qualitative and quantitative bases for safe operational scenarios and viable mitigation techniques. The SCREAM center assembled a national team of experts in runaway electron physics, tokamak disruptions, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, and advanced algorithms and computing. The team combined advanced simulation and analysis capability facilitated by direct participation of ASCR SciDAC institutes with theoretical models and code development by FES scientists to focus on the runaway risk for ITER and tokamaks in general. The research scope was focussed on integrated simulations of kinetic runaway electrons, including MHD and fluid models of impurity transport, within a research plan guided by theory. The specific research tasks were (1) establish the fundamental physics of runaway generation, saturation, and dynamical evolution in a tokamak; (2) examine the critical path toward runaway avoidance; and (3) investigate the viability and effectiveness of the leading candidate schemes for runaway mitigation. In all three areas, members of the team carried out scoping studies that established the readiness for rapid and critical advances, especially in the deployment and further development of large-to extreme-scale simulation tools. Our multi-pronged computational approach included (1) relativistic Fokker-Planck solvers with discretization in phase space, (2) self-consistent particle-in-cell techniques, (3) particle-based Monte-Carlo, and (4) MHD-particle hybrid simulations. Cross-check between these different methods provided an additional means for verification and further bolstered the fidelity of our physics prediction. Validation against experimental results brings confidence to the predictive capability for ITER and frequently leads to new ideas for understanding and mitigating the thermal quench driven runaway electron phenomenon.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reducing the Cost of Energy Differences in Variational Monte Carlo with Spotlight Sampling

Here, we investigate an approximate sampling scheme that can significantly reduce the cost scaling of variational Monte Carlo when it is employed to predict the energy differences associated with local chemical changes. Inspired by side-chaining and embedding methods, this spotlight sampling approach adopts an approximate fragmented Hamiltonian and correlated sampling to reduce cost scaling to the point that it is essentially linear with system size, with the potential to go sublinear if certain conditions are met. In tests on bond stretching energies in alcohols, hydrogen dimer chains, and molecules with various degrees of π-system delocalization, we observe the anticipated linear scaling and an explicit cost crossover with standard variational Monte Carlo.

Bumann, Sonja [University of California, Berkeley,↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transfer functions for Q A /Q B international regulatory limits for the safe transport of radioactive materials

This paper presents a proposed revision of the International Atomic Energy Agency transport regulations, related to the A 1 and A 2 limit values used to determine the radioactive transport classification. Based on the 'Q system', a novel methodology was introduced to derive Q A and Q B values related to scenarios involving external exposure from a distant source. These values are key parameters that respectively represent the total effective dose and total equivalent dose to the skin, from all primary and secondary particles contributing to radiation exposure. The International Working Group (WG A 1 /A 2 ) is established and associated with the TRANSSC Technical Expert Group on Radiation Protection. A review of the A 1 and A 2 values is performed in response to identified limitations within the existing Q system. The followed approach is based on Monte Carlo simulations that enabled the development of transfer functions aimed at reducing computational time and increasing the flexibility of dose evaluations for any radionuclide with known particle emission spectra. This method allows updating the Q A and Q B values to account for future data evolutions (decay data, fluence-to-dose conversion coefficients) and standardizing the calculation of regulation limits across all referenced radionuclides and scenarios related to external exposure. The transfer functions are established using three Monte Carlo simulation codes—FLUKA, Geant4, and MCNP—and address the previous limitations of the 'Q system', reflecting the latest International Commission for Radiation Protection recommendations and improvements in calculation techniques. The results of the WG show consistent agreement across the codes, with minor discrepancies observed at low primary energies due to statistical uncertainties and different handling of stopping power for electrons/positrons in the codes. This revised approach aligns with current standards and recommendations, ensuring that the radiological consequences of transport accidents are acceptable for the new A 1 and A 2 limits from a radiological protection perspective.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in inventories for life cycle assessment: State‐of‐the‐art, challenges, and new technologies

Uncertainty is a critical factor that can hinder the quality and potential applications of life cycle assessment (LCA) results. A prominent source of uncertainty stems from the life cycle inventory (LCI) data. Various methodologies exist to estimate the uncertainty associated with LCI data, primarily based on the widely used structured pedigree matrix approach or the computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation. This perspective review explores how new technologies (e.g., computational algorithms and data collection methods) from data science and related fields can contribute to identifying, quantifying, and reducing uncertainty in LCI modeling. A brief overview of the sources of uncertainty in LCI modeling and how they are addressed in current LCA practice is provided. Additionally, several new technologies are identified, and the potential benefits of their implementation in reducing uncertainties in LCI modeling are discussed. This perspective review concludes by identifying potential areas that require further development for these technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Griffin model of the advanced test reactor

In the pursuit of a higher fidelity deterministic simulation capability of the Advanced Test Reactor, it is important to have a fast yet accurate deterministic neutronics model. Here, to achieve this, we employed an advanced two-step method. The first step involves generating homogenized cross sections using OpenMC, a cutting-edge Monte Carlo neutron transport code. OpenMC offers excellent modular capabilities, allowing for easy component integration and flexibility in incorporating new designs into the model. The second step involves deterministic transport calculations, which are performed using Griffin, a reactor physics application based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). To ensure the accurate spatial resolution and assignment of material cross sections, a Cubit-generated mesh for the Advanced Test Reactor is utilized as an intermediate step between the OpenMC and Griffin models; Griffin utilizes the mesh for its finite element solution, while OpenMC material identifications are written to the mesh file to be used in Griffin material assignments. Additionally, a Python-based script converts the cross sections generated by OpenMC into the ISOXML format required by Griffin. Initial comparisons using the Griffin diffusion solver indicated good agreement between the neutron multiplication factors obtained from the standalone OpenMC model and the Griffin model, with differences of less than 10 pcm in the 2D geometry configuration; it was later determined that this agreement was likely due to compensating effect and was more likely on the order of –700 pcm relative to the OpenMC solution. However, in three-dimensional calculations, an unacceptably large error (almost 8,000 pcm) was found in the Griffin solution with the diffusion solver. Subsequent calculations using Griffin’s discrete ordinates solver demonstrated substantially improved agreement, within 116 pcm of the OpenMC solution used to generate the cross sections for Griffin. Building on this capability, future work will seek to perform more detailed validation calculations. The ultimate goal is to evaluate both transient and multiphysics simulations of the reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing earth system model calibration: a diffusion-based method

Understanding of climate impact on ecosystems globally requires site-specific model calibration. Here we introduce a novel diffusion-based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method for efficient model calibration. DBUQ is a score-based diffusion model that leverages Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the score function and evaluates a simple neural network to quickly generate samples for approximating parameter posterior distributions. DBUQ is stable, efficient, and can effectively calibrate the model given diverse observations, thereby enabling rapid and site-specific model calibration on a global scale. This capability significantly advances Earth system modeling and our understanding of climate impacts on Earth systems. We demonstrate DBUQ's capability in E3SM land model calibration at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Both synthetic and real-data applications indicate that DBUQ produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those generated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30X less computing time. This efficiency marks a significant stride in model calibration, paving the way for more effective and timely climate impact analyses.

Liu, Yanfang↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exascale granular microstructure reconstruction in 3D volumes of arbitrary geometries with generative learning

Reconstructing 3D granular microstructures within volumes of arbitrary geometries from limited 2D image data is crucial for predicting the material properties, as well as performances of structural components accounting for material microstructural effects. We present a novel generative learning framework that enables exascale reconstruction of granular microstructures within complex 3D geometric volumes. Building upon existing transfer learning techniques using pre-trained convolutional neural networks (CNN), we introduce several key innovations to overcome the difficulties inherent in arbitrary geometries. Our framework incorporates periodic boundary conditions using circular padding techniques, ensuring continuity and representativeness of the reconstructed microstructures. We also introduce a novel seamless transition reconstruction (STR) method that creates statistically equivalent transition zones to integrate multiple pre-existing 3D microstructure volumes. Based on STR, we propose a cost-effective strategy for reconstructing microstructures within complex geometric volumes, minimizing computational waste. Validation through numerical experiments using kinetic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrates accurate reproduction of grain statistics, including grain size distributions and morphology. A case study involving the reconstruction of a 4-blade propeller microstructure illustrates the method’s capability to efficiently handle complex geometries. In conclusion, the proposed framework significantly reduces computational demands while maintaining high reconstruction quality, paving the way for scalable microstructure reconstruction in materials design and analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification

Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interaction-enhanced nesting in spin-fermion and Fermi-Hubbard models

The spin-fermion (SF) model postulates that the dominant coupling between low-energy fermions in near critical metals is mediated by collective spin fluctuations (paramagnons) peaked at the Néel wave vector, Q N , connecting hot spots on opposite sides of the Fermi surface. It has been argued that strong correlations at hot spots lead to a Fermi surface deformation (FSD) featuring flat regions and increased nesting. This conjecture was confirmed in the perturbative self-consistent calculations when the paramagnon propagator dependence on momentum deviation from Q N is given by χ − 1 ∝ | Δ q | . Using diagrammatic Monte Carlo (diagMC) technique we show that such a dependence holds only at temperatures orders of magnitude smaller than any other energy scale in the problem, indicating that a different mechanism may be at play. Instead, we find that a χ − 1 ∝ | Δ q | 2 dependence yields a robust finite- T scenario for achieving FSD. To link phenomenological and microscopic descriptions, we applied the connected determinant diagMC method to the ( t − t ′ ) Hubbard model and found that at large U / t > 5.5 before the formation of electron and hole pockets (i) the FSD defined as a maximum of the spectral function is not very pronounced; instead, it is the lines of zeros of the renormalized dispersion relation that deforms toward nesting, and (ii) the static spin susceptibility is well described by χ − 1 ∝ | Δ q | 2 . Flat FS regions yield a nontrivial scenario for realizing a non-Fermi liquid state. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving neutrino energy estimation of charged-current interaction events with recurrent neural networks in MicroBooNE

We present a deep learning-based method for estimating the neutrino energy of charged-current neutrino-argon interactions. We employ a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture for neutrino energy estimation in the MicroBooNE experiment, utilizing liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector technology. Traditional energy estimation approaches in LArTPCs, which largely rely on reconstructing and summing visible energies, often experience sizable biases and resolution smearing because of the complex nature of neutrino interactions and the detector response. The estimation of neutrino energy can be improved after considering the kinematics information of reconstructed final-state particles. Utilizing kinematic information of reconstructed particles, the deep learning-based approach shows improved resolution and reduced bias for the muon neutrino Monte Carlo simulation sample compared to the traditional approach. In order to address the common concern about the effectiveness of this method on experimental data, the RNN-based energy estimator is further examined and validated with dedicated data-simulation consistency tests using MicroBooNE data. We also assess its potential impact on a neutrino oscillation study after accounting for all statistical and systematic uncertainties and show that it enhances physics sensitivity. This method has good potential to improve the performance of other physics analyses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tau-Jet Matching and Tag-and-Probe Tau Tagging Efficiencies for HH→bbτ+τ− Searches Using Run 3 CMS Scouting Data

We are studying tau-jet matching efficiency and tau tagging efficiency for the search for Higgs boson pair production in the HH→bbτ+τ− decay channel using Run 3 CMS scouting data. Collision events in the CMS detector produce many particle candidates, so jets are clustered using the anti-kT algorithm to identify possible tau signatures. In Monte Carlo simulation, tau-jet matching efficiency can be measured by comparing generated taus to reconstructed jets. In actual collision data, however, generated taus are not available, so we use a tag-and-probe method with Z→τ+τ− candidate events. In this method, one tau candidate is used as the tag and the other as the probe. The invariant mass of the tau-pair candidates is plotted and fitted with signal and background functions to estimate the number of real tau events and determine the tagging efficiency. By comparing efficiencies in data and Monte Carlo simulation, this work helps evaluate the performance of scouting-based tau reconstruction and tau tagging for future HH→bbτ+τ− searches.

Bellot, Annella [North Central Coll.; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tau-Jet Matching and Tag-and-Probe Tau Tagging Efficiencies for HH→bbτ+τ− Searches Using Run 3 CMS Scouting Data

Bellot, Annella [North Central Coll.; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

From optimal observables to machine learning: an effective-field-theory analysis of e + e − → W + W − at future lepton colliders

We apply machine-learning techniques to the effective-field-theory analysis of the e + e − → W + W − processes at future lepton colliders, and demonstrate their advantages in comparison with conventional methods, such as optimal observables. In particular, we show that machine-learning methods are more robust to detector effects and backgrounds, and could in principle produce unbiased results with sufficient Monte Carlo simulation samples that accurately describe experiments. This is crucial for the analyses at future lepton colliders given the outstanding precision of the e + e − → W + W − measurement (~ 10−4 in terms of anomalous triple gauge couplings or even better) that can be reached. Our framework can be generalized to other effective-field-theory analyses, such as the one of e + e − → t t ¯ or similar processes at muon colliders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Continuous integration data-driven platform of industrial-scale subsurface storage for real-time analytics

This project helped address the growing need for efficient and scalable models to support geological carbon and energy storage, which are crucial for achieving net-zero emissions. Traditionally accurate high-fidelity numerical models have been used to simulate relevant storage processes under a handful of processes, however such models are computationally demanding, making uncertainty quantification impractical. Consequently, we first developed a machine learning framework, based on Graph Neural Operators (GNOs), to improving the accuracy of model predictions for a fixed computational budget. We then developed an Ensemble of Improved Neural Operators (ENO), which uses bagging and Monte Carlo dropout techniques, to further improve prediction accuracy. Lastly, we developed the way to explain progressive transfer learning methods to reduce the amount of training data and computational cost of training (i.e., reduce trainable parameters) when using our models for multiple storage sites. Our numerical investigation, which used real-world case studies, demonstrated that our framework can significantly improve the safety and efficiency of geological storage operations, with potential applications in other domains such as geothermal reservoirs and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

GBOpt: Grain boundary structure optimization using Monte Carlo and evolutionary algorithms

Polycrystalline materials are made of many small crystals separated by grain boundaries (GBs), whose atomic structure strongly influences material properties. Because the structure of a GB determines its properties, the optimal structure must be known in order to determine those impacts. There are many ways of placing atoms in the GB region, but the optimal structure is defined as the one that gives the lowest value of a target property (typically energy). GB structure optimization has been successfully demonstrated using stochastic and evolutionary methods, but no reusable, community-maintained open-source workflow has been developed. GBOpt (Grain Boundary Optimization) is an open-source Python package that creates that workflow, where we have presently implemented two approaches: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and genetic algorithm based on elite selection. We demonstrate this capability by successfully reproducing the known optimal structures of a specific GB in two materials, and point interested readers to the GitHub repository for additional examples, including optimization for different properties. Both of the implemented approaches recovered the known structures, with the genetic algorithm approach finding the optimal structure faster on average.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport Performance of Predicting Digital Radiographic IQI Inspection

The identification of porosity, geometric noncompliance, and other defect types are critical to the qualification of materials and components. X-ray radiographic nondestructive testing is a common industrial inspection method for process quality control and component qualification and certification. Digital radiography provides a quick and efficient alternative when compared to traditional film-based inspection. The quality of radiographic inspection is dependent on equipment specifications, such as the source spot size and detector pixel size, and the specific parameters selected for use for the radiographic technique. To evaluate if an x-ray system and technique is sufficient for a given requirement, a radiographic image quality indicator (IQI) can be used. Radiographic IQIs in hard to machine materials or hard to manufacture defects can be time consuming and expensive to manufacture. This study was conducted to evaluate current Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) x-ray imaging systems with a custom tantalum IQI and using Monte Carlo simulations to predict the performance of future systems. The tantalum IQI was tested using a Siefert Isovolt 420 keV x-ray tube with a Perkin Elmer XRD 1611 flat panel with 100-micron pixels. Using the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport software, the radiographic tally was used to simulate the photon flux through an identical tantalum IQI. These simulations provided a benchmark as to the best theoretical identification on a given system using our tantalum IQI. The simulations were refined to match SRNL’s current systems’ noise levels, leading to confidence in their ability to predict the performance of other systems that may be purchased and deployed in the future at the Savannah River Site. Future studies will be conducted to prove this research can be extended to artificially evaluate the ability for systems to identify critical defect sizes through x-ray radiographic inspection, drastically reducing the cost and time burdens of producing high-fidelity radiographic test articles.

digital X-ray radiography↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic equilibrium Raman spectroscopy (STERS)

In this manuscript, we propose a new method for cavity- and surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) with improved temporal resolution in the measurement of stochastic Raman spectral fluctuations. Our approach combines Fourier spectroscopy and photon correlation to decouple the integration time from the temporal resolution. Using statistical optics Monte Carlo simulations, we establish the relationship between time resolution and Raman signal strength, revealing that typical Raman spectral fluctuations, commensurate with molecular conformational dynamics, can theoretically be resolved on micro- to millisecond timescales. The method can further extract average single-molecule dynamics from small sub-ensembles, thereby potentially mitigating challenges in achieving strictly single-molecule isolation on SERS substrates.

Cobb-Bruno, Colburn [University of California, Ber↗