Results for “Monte Carlo sampling” — Page 20

DOE OSTI2025

Diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo Benchmarking of Magnetic Moments in MnBi 2 Te 4

The intrinsically antiferromagnetic topological insulator, MnBi 2 Te 4 (MBT), has garnered significant attention recently due to its potential to host numerous exotic topological quantum states. Unfortunately, their consistent realization has been hindered by intrinsic antisite defects among the Mn and Bi sublattices. In this work, we establish Mn magnetization of pristine MBT through high level diffusion Monte Carlo calculations, which can serve as a precise starting point for various models to estimate antisite defect concentrations in actual MBT samples. The benchmark quality of DMC calculations is further identified from out model estimating antisite defect concentrations, which combines the benchmarked Mn magnetization with data from magnetic susceptibility and intermediate field magnetization measurements. This reproduces well Bi Mn and Mn Bi concentrations measured in the experiments. Here, we anticipate these theoretically based magnetic purity measures may be used as minimization targets in cycles of refinement to synthesize MBT with low antisite defect concentrations and more reproducible topological properties.

Defects↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simple strategy for the simulation of axially symmetric large-area metasurfaces

Metalenses are composed of nanostructures for focusing light and have been widely explored in many exciting applications. However, their expanding dimensions pose simulation challenges. We propose a method to simulate metalenses in a timely manner using vectorial wave and ray tracing models. We sample the metalens’s radial phase gradient and locally approximate the phase profile by a linear phase response. Each sampling point is modeled as a binary blazed grating, employing the chosen nanostructure, to build a transfer function set. The metalens transmission or reflection is then obtained by applying the corresponding transfer function to the incoming field on the regions surrounding each sampling point. Fourier optics is used to calculate the scattered fields under arbitrary illumination for the vectorial wave method, and a Monte Carlo algorithm is used in the ray tracing formalism. We validated our method against finite-difference time domain simulations at 632 nm, and we were able to simulate metalenses larger than 3000 wavelengths in diameter on a personal computer.

Martins, Augusto (ORCID:0000000295546481)↗

NASA NTRS1978

Simulation of turbulent wall pressure

A Monte Carlo procedure was developed to simulate turbulent boundary layer wall pressure fluctuations. The approach utilizes much of the newly available conditional sampling information to construct the required distribution functions. Various disturbance wave forms were examined, as well as the effect of frequency-dependent decay. Good agreement between the simulation and experimental data was achieved for root mean square pressure level, power spectrum, and space time correlation.

Ash, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Blueprint for Demonstrating Quantum Supremacy with Superconducting Qubits

Long coherence times and high fidelity control recently achieved in scalable superconducting circuits paved the way for the growing number of experimental studies of many-qubit quantum coherent phenomena in these devices. Albeit full implementation of quantum error correction and fault tolerant quantum computation remains a challenge the near term pre-error correction devices could allow new fundamental experiments despite inevitable accumulation of errors. One such open question foundational for quantum computing is achieving the so called quantum supremacy, an experimental demonstration of a computational task that takes polynomial time on the quantum computer whereas the best classical algorithm would require exponential time and/or resources. It is possible to formulate such a task for a quantum computer consisting of less than a 100 qubits. The computational task we consider is to provide approximate samples from a non-trivial quantum distribution. This is a generalization for the case of superconducting circuits of ideas behind boson sampling protocol for quantum optics introduced by Arkhipov and Aaronson. In this presentation we discuss a proof-of-principle demonstration of such a sampling task on a 9-qubit chain of superconducting gmon qubits developed by Google. We discuss theoretical analysis of the driven evolution of the device resulting in output approximating samples from a uniform distribution in the Hilbert space, a quantum chaotic state. We analyze quantum chaotic characteristics of the output of the circuit and the time required to generate a sufficiently complex quantum distribution. We demonstrate that the classical simulation of the sampling output requires exponential resources by connecting the task of calculating the output amplitudes to the sign problem of the Quantum Monte Carlo method. We also discuss the detailed theoretical modeling required to achieve high fidelity control and calibration of the multi-qubit unitary evolution in the device. We use a novel cross-entropy statistical metric as a figure of merit to verify the output and calibrate the device controls. Finally, we demonstrate the statistics of the wave function amplitudes generated on the 9-gmon chain and verify the quantum chaotic nature of the generated quantum distribution. This verifies the implementation of the quantum supremacy protocol.

Kechedzhi, Kostyantyn↗

NASA NTRS2018

Uncertainty in Heart Rate Complexity Metrics Caused by R-Peak Perturbations

Heart rate complexity (HRC) is a proven metric for gaining insight into human stress and physiological deterioration. To calculate HRC, the detection of the exact instance of when the heart beats, the R-peak, is necessary. Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals can often be corrupted by environmental noise (e.g., from electromagnetic interference, movement artifacts), which can potentially alter the HRC measurement, producing erroneous inputs which feed into decision support models. Current literature has only investigated how HRC is affected by noise when R-peak detection errors occur (false positives and false negatives). However, the numerical methods used to calculate HRC are also sensitive to the specific location of the fiducial point of the R-peak. This raises many questions regarding how this fiducial point is altered by noise, the resulting impact on the measured HRC, and how we can account for noisy HRC measures as inputs into our decision models. This work uses Monte Carlo simulations to systematically add white and pink noise at different permutations of signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), time segments, sampling rates, and HRC measurements to characterize the influence of noise on the HRC measure by altering the fiducial point of the R-peak. Using the generated information from these simulations provides improved decision processes for system design which address key concerns such as permutation entropy being a more precise, reliable, less biased, and more sensitive measurement for HRC than sample and approximate entropy.

Napoli, Nicholas J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

NASA NTRS1989

Statistical fluctuations in Monte Carlo calculations

The time counter and modified Nanbu simulation techniques are analyzed, with emphasis placed on the convergence of the calculations to a steady macroscopic state. Such variables as translational and rotational temperature, and flow velocity, sampled at several points in the flowfield, are considered. Both macroscopic averages and molecular distribution functions are analyzed. The calculation of inelastic collisions, in which transfer of energy between translational and internal energy modes is performed, is achieved through the use of the Larsen-Borgnakke phenomenological model. It is noted that, with reference to translational temperature, the time counter method shows less statistical scatter than that found with the modified Nanbu simulation technique.

Boyd, I. D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the liquid argon scintillation pulse shape using differentiable simulation in the coherent CAPTAIN-Mills experiment

The coherent CAPTAIN-Mills (CCM) experiment is a liquid argon (LAr) light collection detector searching for MeV-scale neutrino and beyond Standard Model physics signatures. Two hundred eight-inch photomultiplier tubes instrument the seven-ton fiducial volume with 50% photocathode coverage to detect light produced by charged particles. CCM’s light-based approach reduces requirements of LAr purity, compared to other detection technologies, such that sub-MeV particles can be reliably detected without additional LAr filtration and with 𝒪⁡(1) parts per million of common contaminants. We present a measurement of LAr light production and propagation parameters, with uncertainties, obtained from a sample of MeV-scale electromagnetic events. The optimization of this high-dimensional parameter space was facilitated by a differentiable optical photon Monte Carlo simulation and detailed photomultiplier tube response characterization. This result accurately predicts the timing and spatial distribution of light due to scintillation and Cherenkov emission in the detector. This is the first description of photon propagation in LAr to include several effects, including anomalous dispersion of the index of refraction near the ultraviolet resonance, Mie scattering from impurities, and Cherenkov light production.

Cherenkov detectors↗

NASA NTRS1973

A numerical study of rays in random media

Statistics of electromagnetic rays in a random medium are studied numerically by the Monte Carlo method. Two dimensional random surfaces with prescribed correlation functions are used to simulate the random media. Rays are then traced in these sample media. Statistics of the ray properties such as the ray positions and directions are computed. Histograms showing the distributions of the ray positions and directions at different points along the ray path as well as at given points in space are given. The numerical experiment is repeated for different cases corresponding to weakly and strongly random media with isotropic and anisotropic irregularities. Results are compared with those derived from theoretical investigations whenever possible.

Youakim, M. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A finite element technique for non-deterministic thermal deformation analyses including temperature dependent material properties

A technique utilizing the finite element displacement method is developed for the static analysis of structures subjected to non-deterministic thermal loading in which the material properties, assumed isotropic, are temperature dependent. Matrix equations are developed for the first two statistical moments of the displacements using a third order series expansion for the displacements in terms of the random temperatures. Sample problems are included to demonstrate the range of applicability of the third order series solutions. These solutions are compared with results from Monte Carlo analyses and also, for some problems, with solutions obtained by numerically integrating equations for the statistical properties of the displacements. In general, it is shown that the effect of temperature dependent material properties can have a significant effect on the covariances of the displacements.

Case, W. R., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Characterizing Lunar Polar Volatiles at the Working Scale: Going from Exploration Goals to Mission Requirements

The economic evaluation of natural resources depends on the accuracy of resource distribution estimates. On Earth such estimates are necessary in making decisions about opening new mines or in planning future investment for operating mines or industrial deposits. A frequently discussed lunar resource is water ice, however, we are only at the first stages of understanding its potential as a resource. In particular, we currently do not have a sufficient understanding of the distribution of water or its form at the scales it would be extracted and processed, that is, the “working scale”. Here the “working scale” is defined to be the scales at which sufficient material can be processed to meet some basic demand (for example, 100s of square meters), and the anticipated heterogeneity in the water distribution across those scales (scales <5 - 10s of meters). Several mission concepts have been developed to better understand lunar water, motivated by both scientific and exploration goals. This paper provides an analysis of the number and distribution of observations needed to provide the necessary next steps in lunar water ISRU. We use a combination of Monte Carlo studies and classic geostatistical approaches to go from the exploration goal of “understand the distribution of water” to quantification of specific mission sampling requirements.

Colaprete, A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the approach used in the unresolved resonance region

The typical practice used in Monte Carlo neutron transport codes in the unresolved resonance region (URR) is to take advantage of the probability table (PT) approach. Cross sections are sampled from PTs and used as needed, along with generated average cross sections. The PTs are generated based on cross-section calculations performed using the single-level Breit–Wigner approximation. Although the approach used in the URR seems plausible, a detailed examination was needed to understand the benchmark results obtained using specific tests.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Can standard cosmological models explain the observed Abell cluster bulk flow?

Lauer and Postman (LP) observed that all Abell clusters with redshifts less than 15,000 km/s appear to be participating in a bulk flow of 689 km/s with respect to the cosmic microwave background. We find this result difficult to reconcile with all popular models for large-scale structure formation that assume Gaussian initial conditions. This conclusion is based on Monte Carlo realizations of the LP data, drawn from large particle-mesh N-body simulations for six different models of the initial power spectrum (standard, tilted, and Omega(sub 0) = 0.3 cold dark matter, and two variants of the primordial baryon isocurvature model). We have taken special care to treat properly the longest-wavelength components of the power spectra. The simulations are sampled, 'observed,' and analyzed as identically as possible to the LP cluster sample. Large-scale bulk flows as measured from clusters in the simulations are in excellent agreement with those measured from the grid: the clusters do not exhibit any strong velocity bias on large scales. Bulk flows with amplitude as large as that reported by LP are not uncommon in the Monte Carlo data stes; the distribution of measured bulk flows before error bias subtraction is rougly Maxwellian, with a peak around 400 km/s. However the chi squared of the observed bulk flow, taking into account the anisotropy of the error ellipsoid, is much more difficult to match in the simulations. The models examined are ruled out at confidence levels between 94% and 98%.

Strauss, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The fragmentation of 510 MeV/nucleon iron-56 in polyethylene. II. Comparisons between data and a model

The results of a Monte Carlo model for calculating fragment fluences and LET spectra are compared to data taken with 600 MeV/nucleon iron ions incident on an accelerator beamline configured for irradiation of biological samples, with no target and with 2, 5 and 8 cm of polyethylene. The model uses a multi-generation nuclear fragmentation code, coupled with a formulation of ionization energy loss based on the Bethe-Bloch equation. In the region where the data are reliable and the experimental acceptance is well understood, many of the features of the experimental spectra are well replicated by the model. To obtain good agreement with the experimental data, the model must allow for at least two generations of fragment production in the target.

NASA Discipline Number 99-99↗

NASA NTRS2001

Uncertainty Optimization Applied to the Monte Carlo Analysis of Planetary Entry Trajectories

Recently, strong evidence of liquid water under the surface of Mars and a meteorite that might contain ancient microbes have renewed interest in Mars exploration. With this renewed interest, NASA plans to send spacecraft to Mars approx. every 26 months. These future spacecraft will return higher-resolution images, make precision landings, engage in longer-ranging surface maneuvers, and even return Martian soil and rock samples to Earth. Future robotic missions and any human missions to Mars will require precise entries to ensure safe landings near science objective and pre-employed assets. Potential sources of water and other interesting geographic features are often located near hazards, such as within craters or along canyon walls. In order for more accurate landings to be made, spacecraft entering the Martian atmosphere need to use lift to actively control the entry. This active guidance results in much smaller landing footprints. Planning for these missions will depend heavily on Monte Carlo analysis. Monte Carlo trajectory simulations have been used with a high degree of success in recent planetary exploration missions. These analyses ascertain the impact of off-nominal conditions during a flight and account for uncertainty. Uncertainties generally stem from limitations in manufacturing tolerances, measurement capabilities, analysis accuracies, and environmental unknowns. Thousands of off-nominal trajectories are simulated by randomly dispersing uncertainty variables and collecting statistics on forecast variables. The dependability of Monte Carlo forecasts, however, is limited by the accuracy and completeness of the assumed uncertainties. This is because Monte Carlo analysis is a forward driven problem; beginning with the input uncertainties and proceeding to the forecasts outputs. It lacks a mechanism to affect or alter the uncertainties based on the forecast results. If the results are unacceptable, the current practice is to use an iterative, trial-and-error approach to reconcile discrepancies. Therefore, an improvement to the Monte Carlo analysis is needed that will allow the problem to be worked in reverse. In this way, the largest allowable dispersions that achieve the required mission objectives can be determined quantitatively.

Olds, John↗