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Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗

P/2006 HR30 (Siding Spring): A Low-activity Comet in Near-Earth Space

The low cometary activity of P/2006 HR30 (Siding Spring) allowed a unique opportunity to study the nucleus of a periodic comet while near perihelion. P/2006 HR30 was originally targeted as a potential extinct comet, and we measured spectral reflectance and dust production using long-slit CCD spectroscopy and wide-field imaging obtained at the Palomar Mountain 200 inch telescope on 2006 August 3 and 4. The dust production Afp = 19.7 +/- 0.4 cm and mass-loss rate Q(dust) 4.1 +/- 0.1 kg/sec of the comet were approximately 2 orders of magnitude dust less than 1P/Halley at similar heliocentric distance. The VRI colors derived from the spectral reflectance were compared to Kuiper Belt objects, Centaurs, and other cometary nuclei. We found that the spectrum of P/2006 HR30 was consistent with other comets. However, the outer solar system bodies have a color distribution statistically distinct from cometary nuclei. It is our conjecture that cometary activity, most likely the reaccretion of ejected cometary dust, tends to moderate and mute the visible colors of the surface of cometary nuclei.

comets↗

The Hayabusa Spacecraft Sample Return Mission

The Hayabusa (originally known as MUSES-C) engineering spacecraft was launched by the 5th Mu V launch vehicle on May 9, 2003 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). It was designed to acquire samples from the surface of near-Earth asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) and return them to Earth. The main objectives of the mission were to demonstrate the performance of various technologies such as ion engine performance, autonomous navigation and control, asteroid surface sampling, and recovery of the return capsule after high speed re-entry. Hayabusa successfully returned a small capsule to Earth in June 2010 with a parachute assisted landing in Woomera, Australia. Details of the Hayabusa mission and the recovery operation will be presented for discussion.

Abell, Paul A.↗

The Effects of Surface Roughness on the NEAR XRS Elemental Results: Monte-Carlo Modeling

The objective of the NEAR-Shoemaker X-ray Gamma-Ray Spec1roscopy ("XGRS") investigation was to determine the elemental composition of the near-Earth asteroid 433 Eros. The X-ray Spectrometer (XRS) system measured the characteristic fluorescence of six major elements (Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Fe) in the 1-10 keV energy range excited by the interaction of solar X-rays with the upper 100 microns of the surface of 433 Eros. Various investigators, using both laboratory experiments and computer simulations have established that X-ray fluorescent line ratios can be influenced by small-scale surface roughness at high incidence or emission angles. The effect on the line ratio is specific to the geometry, excitation spectrum, and composition involved, In general, however, the effect is only substantial for ratios of lines with a significant energy difference between them: Fe/Si and Ca/Si are much more likely to be affected than AI/Si or Mg/Si. We apply a Monte-Carlo code to the specific geometry and spectrum of a major NEAR XRS solar flare observation, using an H chondrite composition as the substrate. The seventeen most abundant elements were included in the composition model, from oxygen to titanium.

Lin, Lucy F.↗

Active Debris Removal - A Grand Engineering Challenge for the Twenty-First Century

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 has reignited interest in using active debris removal to remediate the near-Earth orbital debris environment. A recent NASA study shows that, in order to stabilize the environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region for the next 200 years, active debris removal of about five large and massive (1 to more than 8 metric tons) objects per year is needed. To develop the capability to remove five of those objects per year in a cost-effective manner truly represents a grand challenge in engineering and technology development.

Liou, J.-C.↗

Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (LunaSOX)

The Moon offers a unique vantage point from which to investigate the Sun and its interaction via the solar wind magnetic fields, plasma, and energetic particles with the geospace system including the Moon itself. The lunar surface and exosphere provide in part a record of solar coronal plasma material input and resultant space weathering over billions of years. The structure and dynamics of solar wind interactions with the Moon provide an accessible near-Earth laboratory environment for study of general solar wind interactions with the vast multitude of airless asteroidal bodies of the inner solar system. Spacecraft in lunar orbit have the often simultaneous opportunity, except when in the Earth's magnetosphere, to make in-situ compositional measurements of the solar wind plasma and to carry out remote observations from the Moon of the solar corona, potentially enabled by lunar limb occultation of the solar disk. The LunaSOX project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is addressing these heliophysical science objectives from and of the Moon with support from NASA's Lunar Advanced Science and Exploration Research (LASER) program: (1) specify history of solar wind parameters at and sunward of the Moon through enhanced access (http://lunasox.gsfc.nasa.gov/) to legacy and operational mission data products from the Apollo era to the present, (2) model field and plasma interactions with the lunar surface, exosphere, and wake, as constrained by the available data, through hybrid kinetic code simulations, and (3) advance mission concepts for heliophysics from and of the Moon.

Cooper, John F.↗

Exploration Medical System Demonstration Project

A near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) mission will present significant new challenges including hazards to crew health created by exploring a beyond low earth orbit destination, traversing the terrain of asteroid surfaces, and the effects of variable gravity environments. Limited communications with ground-based personnel for diagnosis and consultation of medical events require increased crew autonomy when diagnosing conditions, creating treatment plans, and executing procedures. Scope: The Exploration Medical System Demonstration (EMSD) project will be a test bed on the International Space Station (ISS) to show an end-to-end medical system assisting the Crew Medical Officers (CMO) in optimizing medical care delivery and medical data management during a mission. NEA medical care challenges include resource and resupply constraints limiting the extent to which medical conditions can be treated, inability to evacuate to Earth during many mission phases, and rendering of medical care by a non-clinician. The system demonstrates the integration of medical technologies and medical informatics tools for managing evidence and decision making. Project Objectives: The objectives of the EMSD project are to: a) Reduce and possibly eliminate the time required for a crewmember and ground personnel to manage medical data from one application to another. b) Demonstrate crewmember's ability to access medical data/information via a software solution to assist/aid in the treatment of a medical condition. c) Develop a common data management architecture that can be ubiquitously used to automate repetitive data collection, management, and communications tasks for all crew health and life sciences activities. d) Develop a common data management architecture that allows for scalability, extensibility, and interoperability of data sources and data users. e) Lower total cost of ownership for development and sustainment of peripheral hardware and software that use EMSD for data management f) Provide better crew health via the reduction in crew errors, crew time, and ground time.

Chin, D. A.↗

Design of Spacecraft Missions to Test Kinetic Impact for Asteroid Deflection

There are currently over 8,000 known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and more are being discovered on a continual basis. More than 1,200 of these are classified as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) because their Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) with Earth's orbit is <= 0.05 AU and their estimated diameters are >= 150 m. To date, 178 Earth impact structures have been discovered, indicating that our planet has previously been struck with devastating force by NEAs and will be struck again. Such collisions are aperiodic events and can occur at any time. A variety of techniques have been proposed to defend our planet from NEA impacts by deflecting the incoming asteroid. However, none of these techniques have been tested. Unless rigorous testing is conducted to produce reliable asteroid deflection systems, we will be forced to deploy completely untested -- and therefore unreliable -- deflection missions when a sizable asteroid on a collision course with Earth is discovered. Such missions will have a high probability of failure. We propose to address this problem with a campaign of deflection technology test missions deployed to harmless NEAs. The objective of these missions is to safely evaluate and refine the mission concepts and asteroid deflection system designs. Our current research focuses on the kinetic impactor, one of the simplest proposed asteroid deflection techniques in which a spacecraft is sent to collide with an asteroid at high relative velocity. By deploying test missions in the near future, we can characterize the performance of this deflection technique and resolve any problems inherent to its execution before needing to rely upon it during a true emergency. In this paper we present the methodology and results of our survey, including lists of NEAs for which safe and effective kinetic impactor test missions may be conducted within the next decade. Full mission designs are also presented for the NEAs which offer the best mission opportunities.

Hernandez, Sonia↗

PHAROS: Shedding Light on the Near-Earth Asteroid Apophis

The Pharos mission to asteroid Apophis provides the first major opportunity to enhance orbital state and scientific knowledge of the most threatening Earth-crossing asteroid that has ever been tracked. Pharos aims to accomplish concrete and feasible orbit determination and scientific objectives while achieving balance among mission cost, nsk,and schedule. Similar to its ancient Egyptian namesake, Pharos acts as a beacon shedding light not only on the physical characteristics of Apophis, but also on its state as it travels through the solar system.

Sharma, Jonathan↗

Human Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids: An Update on NASA's Current Status and Proposed Activities for Small Body Exploration

Introduction: Over the past several years, much attention has been focused on the human exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Two independent NASA studies examined the feasibility of sending piloted missions to NEAs, and in 2009, the Augustine Commission identified NEAs as high profile destinations for human exploration missions beyond the Earth-Moon system as part of the Flexible Path. More recently the current U.S. presidential administration directed NASA to include NEAs as destinations for future human exploration with the goal of sending astronauts to a NEA in the mid to late 2020s. This directive became part of the official National Space Policy of the United States of America as of June 28, 2010. Dynamical Assessment: The current near-term NASA human spaceflight capability is in the process of being defined while the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and Space Launch System (SLS) are still in development. Hence, those NEAs in more accessible heliocentric orbits relative to a minimal interplanetary exploration capability will be considered for the first missions. If total mission durations for the first voyages to NEAs are to be kept to less than one year, with minimal velocity changes, then NEA rendezvous missions ideally will take place within 0.1 AU of Earth (approx about 5 million km or 37 lunar distances). Human Exploration Considerations: These missions would be the first human expeditions to inter-planetary bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars, Phobos and Deimos, and other Solar System destinations. Missions to NEAs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting detailed scientific investigations of these primitive objects. Current analyses of operational concepts suggest that stay times of 15 to 30 days may be possible at these destinations. In addition, the resulting scientific investigations would refine designs for future extraterrestrial In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), and assist in the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense. Conclusions: The scientific and hazard mitigation benefits, along with the programmatic and operational benefits of a human venture beyond the Earth-Moon system, make a piloted mission to a NEA using NASA's proposed human exploration systems a compelling endeavor

Abell, P. A.↗

The Challenge of Orbital Debris

Since the dawn of the Space Age more than 50 years ago, humans have been launching objects into the space environment faster than they have been removed by active means or natural decay. This has led to a proliferation of debris -- derelict satellites, discarded rocket upper stages, and pieces from satellite breakups -- in Earth orbit, especially in well-used orbital regimes. This talk will summarize the current knowledge of the debris environment and describe plans to address the challenges orbital debris raises for the future usability of near-Earth space. The talk will be structured around 4 categories: Measurements, Modeling, Shielding, and Mitigation. This will include discussions of the long-term prognosis of debris growth (i.e., the "Kessler Syndrome") as well as plans for active debris removal.

Matney, Mark↗

Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids: Implications for Exploration, Science, Resource Utilization, and Planetary Defense

Introduction: In 2009 the Augustine Commission identified near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) as high profile destinations for human exploration missions beyond the Earth-Moon system as part of the Flexible Path. More recently the U.S. presidential administration directed NASA to include NEAs as destinations for future human exploration with the goal of sending astronauts to a NEA in the mid to late 2020s. This directive became part of the official National Space Policy of the United States of America as of June 28, 2010. NEA Space-Based Survey and Robotic Precursor Missions: The most suitable targets for human missions are NEAs in Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. However, these mission candidates are often not observable from Earth until the timeframe of their most favorable human mission opportunities, which does not provide an appropriate amount of time for mission development. A space-based survey telescope could more efficiently find these targets in a timely, affordable manner. Such a system is not only able to discover new objects, but also track and characterize objects of interest for human space flight consideration. Those objects with characteristic signatures representative of volatile-rich or metallic materials will be considered as top candidates for further investigation due to their potential for resource utilization and scientific discovery. Once suitable candidates have been identified, precursor spacecraft are required to perform basic reconnaissance of a few NEAs under consideration for the human-led mission. Robotic spacecraft will assess targets for potential hazards that may pose a risk to the deep space transportation vehicle, its deployable assets, and the crew. Additionally, the information obtained about the NEA's basic physical characteristics will be crucial for planning operational activities, designing in-depth scientific/engineering investigations, and identifying sites on the NEA for sample collection. Human Exploration Considerations: These missions would be the first human expeditions to interplanetary bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars, Phobos and Deimos, and other Solar System destinations. Current analyses of operational concepts suggest that stay times of 15 to 30 days may be possible at a NEA with total mission duration limits of 180 days or less. Hence, these missions would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while simultaneously conducting detailed investigations of these primitive objects with instruments and equipment that exceed the mass and power capabilities delivered by robotic spacecraft. All of these activities will be vital for refinement of resource characterization/identification and development of extraction/utilization technologies to be used on airless bodies under low- or micro-gravity conditions. In addition, gaining enhanced understanding of a NEA s geotechnical properties and its gross internal structure will assist the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense. Conclusions: The scientific, resource utilization, and hazard mitigation benefits, along with the programmatic and operational benefits of a human venture beyond the Earth-Moon system, make a piloted sample return mission to a NEA using NASA s proposed human exploration systems a compelling endeavor.

Abell, P. A.↗

Near-Earth Phase Risk Comparison of Human Mars Campaign Architectures

A risk analysis of the launch, orbital assembly, and Earth-departure phases of human Mars exploration campaign architectures was completed as an extension of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) originally carried out under the NASA Constellation Program Ares V Project. The objective of the updated analysis was to study the sensitivity of loss-of-campaign risk to such architectural factors as composition of the propellant delivery portion of the launch vehicle fleet (Ares V heavy-lift launch vehicle vs. smaller/cheaper commercial launchers) and the degree of launcher or Mars-bound spacecraft element sparing. Both a static PRA analysis and a dynamic, event-based Monte Carlo simulation were developed and used to evaluate the probability of loss of campaign under different sparing options. Results showed that with no sparing, loss-of-campaign risk is strongly driven by launcher count and on-orbit loiter duration, favoring an all-Ares V launch approach. Further, the reliability of the all-Ares V architecture showed significant improvement with the addition of a single spare launcher/payload. Among architectures utilizing a mix of Ares V and commercial launchers, those that minimized the on-orbit loiter duration of Mars-bound elements were found to exceed the reliability of no spare all-Ares V campaign if unlimited commercial vehicle sparing was assumed

Manning, Ted A.↗

Human Expeditions to Near-Earth Asteroids: Implications for Exploration, Resource Utilization, Science, and Planetary Defense

Over the past several years, much attention has been focused on human exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and planetary defence. Two independent NASA studies examined the feasibility of sending piloted missions to NEAs, and in 2009, the Augustine Commission identified NEAs as high profile destinations for human exploration missions beyond the Earth-Moon system as part of the Flexible Path. More recently the current U.S. presidential administration directed NASA to include NEAs as destinations for future human exploration with the goal of sending astronauts to a NEA in the mid to late 2020s. This directive became part of the official National Space Policy of the United States of America as of June 28, 2010. With respect to planetary defence, in 2005 the U.S. Congress directed NASA to implement a survey program to detect, track, and characterize NEAs equal or greater than 140 m in diameter in order to access the threat from such objects to the Earth. The current goal of this survey is to achieve 90% completion of objects equal or greater than 140 m in diameter by 2020.

Abell, Paul↗

Human Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids and Sample Collection Considerations

In 2009 the Augustine Commission identified near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) as high profile destinations for human exploration missions beyond the Earth-Moon system as part of the Flexible Path. Subsequently, the U.S. presidential administration directed NASA on April 15, 2010 to include NEAs as destinations for future human exploration with the goal of sending astronauts to a NEA in the mid to late 2020s. This directive became part of the official National Space Policy of the United States of America as of June 28, 2010. Human Exploration Considerations: These missions would be the first human expeditions to interplanetary bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars, Phobos and Deimos, and other Solar System destinations. Missions to NEAs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of these primitive objects. However, prior to sending human explorers to NEAs, robotic investigations of these bodies would be required in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk. These precursor missions to NEAs would fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning their physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration of these relatively unknown destinations. Sample Science Benefits: Information obtained from a human investigation of a NEA, together with ground-based observations and prior spacecraft investigations of asteroids and comets, will also provide a real measure of ground truth to data obtained from terrestrial meteorite collections. Major advances in the areas of geochemistry, impact history, thermal history, isotope analyses, mineralogy, space weathering, formation ages, thermal inertias, volatile content, source regions, solar system formation, etc. can be expected from human NEA missions. Samples directly returned from a primitive body would lead to the same kind of breakthroughs for understanding NEAs that the Apollo samples provided for understanding the Earth-Moon system and its formation history. International Participation: In addition, robotic precursor and human exploration missions to NEAs would allow the NASA and its international partners to gain operational experience in performing complex tasks (e.g., sample collection, deployment of payloads, retrieval of payloads, etc.) with crew, robots, and spacecraft under microgravity conditions at or near the surface of a small body. This would provide an important synergy between the worldwide Science and Exploration communities, which will be crucial for development of future international deep space exploration architectures and has potential benefits for future exploration of other destinations beyond low-Earth orbit.

Abell, Paul↗

Development of the Optical Communications Telescope Laboratory: A Laser Communications Relay Demonstration Ground Station

The Laser Communications Relay Demonstration (LCRD) project will demonstrate high bandwidth space to ground bi-directional optical communications links between a geosynchronous satellite and two LCRD optical ground stations located in the southwestern United States. The project plans to operate for two years with a possible extension to five. Objectives of the demonstration include the development of operational strategies to prototype optical link and relay services for the next generation tracking and data relay satellites. Key technologies to be demonstrated include adaptive optics to correct for clear air turbulence-induced wave front aberrations on the downlink, and advanced networking concepts for assured and automated data delivery. Expanded link availability will be demonstrated by supporting operations at small sun-Earth-probe angles. Planned optical modulation formats support future concepts of near-Earth satellite user services to a maximum of 1.244 Gb/s differential phase shift keying modulation and pulse position modulations formats for deep space links at data rates up to 311 Mb/s. Atmospheric monitoring instruments that will characterize the optical channel during the link include a sun photometer to measure atmospheric transmittance, a solar scintillometer, and a cloud camera to measure the line of sight cloud cover. This paper describes the planned development of the JPL optical ground station.

optical commuication↗

Trajectories to Nab a NEA (Near-Earth Asteroid)

In 2010 and 2011 NASA and KISS sponsored studies to investigate the feasibility of identifying, capturing, and returning an entire (albeit small) NEA to the vicinity of Earth, and concluded that a 40-kW solar electric propulsion system launched on an Atlas 551 provided sufficient propulsion to control an asteroid's trajectory. Once secured by the spacecraft, a NEA with a naturally close encounter with Earth is nudged over a few years to target a lunar gravity assist, capturing the object into Earth orbit. With further use of solar perturbations, up to 3,600,000 kg of NEA could be placed in high-lunar orbit.

solar electric propulsion↗

XHAB 2012 Final Report Habitat Demonstration Unit Lite

The University of Maryland Space Systems Laboratory (SSL) was awarded a NASA X-Hab 2012 grant for the design and construction of a new Earth analogue habitat for habitability research. This work builds on the past ECLIPSE and X-Hab projects at the SSL, by combining these elements with a new habitat module in order to create a single research platform for habitability studies. The “Crew Habitat Evaluator for Long-duration Orbital, Near-earth, and Interplanetary Applications” (CHELONIA) will deliver a much more flexible architecture than the previously developed mock-ups, allowing facilitating faster modification of the interior layouts and available total volume. This will enable the investigators to evaluate crew assessments and task performance as a function of the interior layout, functional area allocation and total available volume. This paper documents the design of this new infrastructure, and includes the details of the manufacturing of a new habitat mock-up module and modifications to the existing elements. The paper also includes a brief discussion of possible future research goals. Initial layouts are implemented using foam-core volumetric mock-ups for internal equipment and outfitting. These low fidelity mock-ups constitute a “library” that will allow a very rapid evaluation of a multitude of layouts. CHELONIA is also suitable for higher fidelity functional mock-ups, as well as short to medium-duration mission simulations. This new facility will enable the examination of habitat layouts for both partial gravity and microgravity environments. While partial gravity systems will be easily evaluated with the habitat currently in development, microgravity subsystems will be studied by utilizing low fidelity volumetric neutral buoyancy mock-ups in order to determine if commonality in the design for these two environments is appropriate. Finally, this new facility is being integrated into the SSL Moonyard planetary surface simulation center. The Moonyard simulates a planetary surface by means of a large sandbox, and is used primarily for rover field trials and suit systems evaluation. This new facility will be a prime element in future Earth analog simulations at the University of Maryland in support of NASA exploration objectives.

Kevin Davis↗