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Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗

Transforming Windows from Energy Liabilities to Zero-Energy Assets: Next-Generation Solutions for Buildings

Windows have traditionally contributed to a building's HVAC load, but they can also become a source of net energy gain or even operate as zero-energy components. For heating applications, highly insulating windows can harness more solar heat than the energy lost through them, transforming windows from energy liabilities to assets. Dynamic glazings provide further benefits by regulating solar heat gain, reducing cooling loads in summer and heating demands in winter. This simulation study focuses on developing the next generation of zero-energy windows (ZEW) for residential new construction. Through annual energy simulations across climate zones 1-8, ZEW performance benchmarks were established based on current code-level buildings, and we've identified the regions where meeting ZEW standards are most achievable. This work evaluates both static and dynamic window technologies, assessing their effects on annual energy use and cost. Key findings demonstrate that ZEW performance is achievable across diverse climate zones, with specific regional requirements. Most climate zones from 3-8 can achieve ZEW with specific configurations, while some warm climates (1-2) appear challenging for ZEW implementation. Climate zones 4-6 consistently allow for zero energy window implementation, offering multiple pathways through either static or dynamic window technologies. Colder climate zones (7-8) ZEW products allow for higher SHGC values while requiring low U-values.

Yu, Lili↗

Global Patterns in Human Consumption of Net Primary Production

The human population and its consumption profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. A particularly compelling measure of humanity's cumulative impact is the fraction of the planet's net primary production that we appropriate for our Net primary production-the net amount of solar energy converted to plant organic matter through photosynthesis-can be measured in units of elemental carbon and represents the primary food energy source for the world's ecosystems. Human appropriation of net primary production, apart from leaving less for other species to use, alters the composition of the atmosphere, levels of biodiversity, flows within food webs and the provision of important primary production required by humans and compare it to the total amount generated on the landscape. We then derive a spatial ba!mce sheet of net primary production supply and demand for the world. We show that human appropriation of net primary production varies spatially from almost zero to many times the local primary production. These analyses reveal the uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations depend on net primary production "imports" and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of human appropriation of net primary production.

Imhoff, Marc L.↗

Summary Report of the Carbon-Negative Hydrogen Workshop

This report summarizes the outcomes of the Carbon-Negative Hydrogen Workshop held at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado on June 22-23, 2023. The workshop was co-sponsored by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Energy Technology Laboratory and focused on developing a shared understanding of the importance of and opportunities for generation and use of carbon-negative hydrogen in industrial decarbonization. For the purposes of this workshop, carbon-negative hydrogen was defined as hydrogen (H 2 ) produced in a manner that leads to net carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere thus giving rise to a life cycle cradle-to-grave carbon intensity that is below zero.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Solution‐Processed Spin‐Polarized Light‐Emitting Diodes of Colloidal Quantum Wells and Magnetic Nanoparticles

Electrical injection of spin-polarized carriers into semiconductors enables circularly-polarized emission from spin-polarized light-emitting diodes (spin-LEDs). The incredible level of tunability of magnetic and electronic properties in colloidal nanocrystals offers unprecedented opportunities for the modulation of polarization of light in solution-processed spin-LEDs based on magnetic nanoparticles unlike epitaxially grown spin-LEDs restricted by a very limited range of materials for their exploitation, and solution-processed spin-LEDs based on chiral molecules, which do not allow the modulation of polarization in general. Here, it is shown that electrical injection of spin-polarized electrons from magnetic Fe 3 O 4 nanoparticles into CdSe/CdZnS core/shell colloidal quantum wells (CQWs) in solution-processed LEDs that allows for polarization modulation of electroluminescence. In this structure, a monolayer of face-down oriented CQWs is deposited as an active layer to avoid polarization losses due to the hopping of the electrons between the CQWs before the radiative recombination process. In this solution-processed spin-LED, the circular polarization reaches 4.5% at 3 K and survives up to 100 K. A net circular polarization is observed at zero magnetic field up to 100 K because of the remnant magnetization of the Fe 3 O 4 nanoparticles. This new colloidal spin-LED architecture presents significant prospects for future solution-processed advanced opto-spintronic devices.

circularly polarized electroluminescence↗

Radial forces in a misaligned radial face seal

Radial forces on the primary seal ring of a flat misaligned seal are analyzed, taking into account the radial variation in seal clearance. An analytical solution for both hydrostatic and hydrodynamic effects is presented that covers the whole range from zero to full angular misalignment. The net radial force on the primary seal ring is always directed so as to produce a radial eccentricity which generates inward pumping. Although the radial force is usually very small, in some cases it may be one of the reasons for excessive leakage through both the primary and secondary seals of a radial face seal.

Etsion, I.↗

Radial forces in a misaligned radial face seal

Radial forces on the primary seal ring of a flat misaligned seal are analyzed, taking into account the radial variation in seal clearance. An analytical solution for both hydrostatic and hydrodynamic effects is presented that covers the whole range from zero to full angular misalignment. The net radial force on the primary seal ring is always directed so as to produce a radial eccentricity which generates inward pumping. Although the radial force is usually very small, in some cases it may be one of the reasons for excessive leakage through both the primary and secondary seals of a radial face seal.

Etsion, I.↗

Contact discontinuities in a cold collision-free two-beam plasma

The structure of contact discontinuities in a collision-free plasma is examined using a model of a plasma which consists of two oppositely directed cold ion beams and a background of cold massless electrons such that exact charge neutrality is maintained and that the electric field is zero. The basic equations describing self-consistent equilibria are obtained for the more general situation where a net flow across the layer takes place and where the magnetic field has two nonzero tangential components but where the electric field remains zero. These equations are then specialized to the case of no net plasma flow where one of the tangential components is zero, and four different classes of sheets are obtained, all having thickness the order of the ion inertial length. The first class is for layers separating two identical plasma and magnetic field regions, the second is for an infinite array of parallel layers producing an undulated magnetic field, the third is for layers containing trapped ions in closed orbits which separate two vacuum regions with uniform identical magnetic fields, and the fourth is for layers which reflect a single plasma beam, leaving a vacuum with a reversed and compressed tangential field on the other side.

Kirkland, K. B.↗

Transition from an incommensurate spin density wave to a commensurate magnetic order in a triangular lattice compound Ho 2 PdAl 6 Ge 4

Rare-earth (RE) intermetallics on a triangular lattice are promising candidates for generating interesting magnetic phases due to the complex interplay between Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yoshida (RKKY) interaction and geometrical frustration. Here, in this work, we report the exotic magnetic structure of a layered compound Ho 2 PdAl 6 Ge 4 with triangular lanthanide nets. Magnetization and heat capacity measurements in zero magnetic field reveal two magnetic phase transitions at T N1 = 10.8 K and T N2 = 6.0 K. Neutron powder diffraction demonstrates a commensurate antiferromagnetic phase with k 1 = (0, 0, 1.5) below T N2 . With increasing temperature, another incommensurate vector appears and therefore, the magnetic structure of the intermediate state is identified as an unusual incommensurate spin density wave with two propagation vectors k 1 = (0, 0, 1.5) and k 2 = (0.0492, 0.0492, 1.5). The magnetic moments in the intermediate state rotate continuously and form an unusual S-shaped wave arrangement in the ab plane, sharing similarities with typical cycloid and helix magnetic orders. These results identify Ho 2 PdAl 6 Ge 4 as a candidate for exploring field-induced topological magnetic phases such as skyrmions, opening the way for further investigations on the family of RE 2 PdAl 6 Ge 4 materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A note on the interference of two collinear cracks in a cylindrical shell

A simple interference problem in shells is evaluated and the results are compared with the obtained data for flat plates. A pressurized shallow cylindrical shell containing two collinear axial through cracks of equal lengths is investigated. It is found that as the size of the net ligament between the two cracks approaches zero, the stress intensity factors at the inner crack tips go to infinity, and the factors at the outer tips approach values that correspond to a single crack except that they are twice as long.

Erdogan, F.↗

The macroscopic behavior of cumulus ensembles simulated by a cumulus ensemble model

A number of simulation experiments are performed with the 2D UCLA cumulus ensemble model to study the macroscopic behavior of cumulus convection under a variety of different large-scale and underlying surface conditions. Specifically, the modulation of cumulus activity by the imposed large-scale processes and the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget are investigated in detail. In all simulations, cumulus convection is rather strongly modulated by large-scale advective processes in spite of the existence of some nonmodulated high-frequency fluctuations. The modulation exhibits some phase delays, however, when the basic wind shear is strong. This is presumably associated with the existence of mesoscale convective organization. The EKE budget analysis shows that the net eddy buoyancy generation rate is nearly zero for a wind range of cumulus ensembles.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Cartesian-Grid Simulations of a Canard-Controlled Missile with a Free-Spinning Tail

The proposed paper presents a series of simulations of a geometrically complex, canard-controlled, supersonic missile with free-spinning tail fins. Time-dependent simulations were performed using an inviscid Cartesian-grid-based method with results compared to both experimental data and high-resolution Navier-Stokes computations. At fixed free stream conditions and canard deflections, the tail spin rate was iteratively determined such that the net rolling moment on the empennage is zero. This rate corresponds to the time-asymptotic rate of the free-to-spin fin system. After obtaining spin-averaged aerodynamic coefficients for the missile, the investigation seeks a fixed-tail approximation to the spin-averaged aerodynamic coefficients, and examines the validity of this approximation over a variety of freestream conditions.

Murman, Scott M.↗

Role of Gravity Waves in Determining Cirrus Cloud Properties

Cirrus clouds are important in the Earth's radiation budget. They typically exhibit variable physical properties within a given cloud system and from system to system. Ambient vertical motion is a key factor in determining the cloud properties in most cases. The obvious exception is convectively generated cirrus (anvils), but even in this case, the subsequent cloud evolution is strongly influenced by the ambient vertical motion field. It is well know that gravity waves are ubiquitous in the atmosphere and occur over a wide range of scales and amplitudes. Moreover, researchers have found that inclusion of statistical account of gravity wave effects can markedly improve the realism of simulations of persisting large-scale cirrus cloud features. Here, we use a 1 -dimensional (z) cirrus cloud model, to systematically examine the effects of gravity waves on cirrus cloud properties. The model includes a detailed representation of cloud microphysical processes (bin microphysics and aerosols) and is run at relatively fine vertical resolution so as to adequately resolve nucleation events, and over an extended time span so as to incorporate the passage of multiple gravity waves. The prescribed gravity waves "propagate" at 15 m s (sup -1), with wavelengths from 5 to 100 km, amplitudes range up to 1 m s (sup -1)'. Despite the fact that the net gravity wave vertical motion forcing is zero, it will be shown that the bulk cloud properties, e.g., vertically-integrated ice water path, can differ quite significantly from simulations without gravity waves and that the effects do depend on the wave characteristics. We conclude that account of gravity wave effects is important if large-scale models are to generate realistic cirrus cloud property climatology (statistics).

OCStarr, David↗

Discrete-vortex model for the symmetric-vortex flow on cones

A relatively simple but accurate potential flow model was developed for studying the symmetric vortex flow on cones. The model is a modified version of the model first developed by Bryson, in which discrete vortices and straight-line feeding sheets were used to represent the flow field. It differs, however, in the zero-force condition used to position the vortices and determine their circulation strengths. The Bryson model imposed the condition that the net force on the feeding sheets and discrete vortices must be zero. The proposed model satisfies this zero-force condition by having the vortices move as free vortices, at a velocity equal to at the local crossflow velocity at their centers. When the free-vortex assumption is made, a solution is obtained in the form of two nonlinear algebraic equations that relate the vortex center coordinates and vortex strengths to the cone angle and angle of attack. The vortex center locations calculated using the model are in good agreement with experimental values. The cone normal forces as well as center locations are in good agreement with the vortex cloud method of calculating symmetric flow fields.

Gainer, Thomas G.↗

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Group-Additivity–Embedded Multiscale Modeling for Electric Field-Enhanced Nanocatalysis

Elucidating structure-performance relationships remains a central challenge in field-enhanced catalysis, where nanoparticles exhibit nonuniform surface sites with site-dependent responses to electric fields. Low-coordination sites (edges, corners, and tips) are particularly electric field-sensitive (EF), leading to nonuniform charge distribution, adsorption energies, and catalytic activity. Here, using ammonia decomposition on a ruthenium cluster as a model system, we develop a transferable multiscale framework integrating density functional theory, group additivity (GA), Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi scaling, and microkinetic modeling to predict EF-dependent activity across nonuniform cluster sites. Across sites and fields, the nitrogen adsorption energy (E N ) emerges as the governing descriptor, yielding robust volcano relationships whose optimum shifts systematically with field: negative fields strengthen N binding via electron accumulation, while positive fields weaken N binding via charge depletion, moving the optimal E N toward weaker binding. Microkinetic analysis shows that N≡N bond formation remains the key kinetic bottleneck over most conditions; positive fields lower the effective barrier and, critically, increase the fraction of near-optimal active sites, leading to a net enhancement in overall activity relative to zero-field and negative-field cases. By capturing EF- and site-dependent energetics with high accuracy and low computational cost, this GA-embedded multi-scale simulation workflow provides a physically interpretable route to predict and design field-enhanced nanocatalysis.

ammonia decomposition↗

OSO 8 observational limits to the acoustic coronal heating mechanism

An improved analysis of time-resolved line profiles of the C IV resonance line at 1548 A has been used to test the acoustic wave hypothesis of solar coronal heating. It is shown that the observed motions and brightness fluctuations are consistent with the existence of acoustic waves. Specific account is taken of the effect of photon statistics on the observed velocities, and a test is devised to determine whether the motions represent propagating or evanescent waves. It is found that on the average about as much energy is carried upward as downward such that the net acoustic flux density is statistically consistent with zero. The statistical uncertainty in this null result is three orders of magnitue lower than the flux level needed to heat the corona.

Bruner, E. C., Jr.↗

Wave and plasma observations during a compressional Pc 5 wave event August 10, 1982

Magnetometer and thermal plasma instruments on the polar-orbiting Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite observed a small-amplitude ultralow frequency pulsation event at the outer edge of the plasmapause near the geomagnetic equator in the midafternoon sector on August 10, 1982, during the recovery phase of a magnetic storm. Transverse pulsations of 30-50 s period were observed throughout the event, and a 270-s period, purely compressional Pc 5 pulsation with several shifts in phase occurred within + or - 5 deg of the geomagnetic equator. Electric fields and the motion of thermal ions appeared to be in quadrature with pulsations in magnetic field magnitude throughout the event. This suggests that the net Poynting flux for the compressional waves was zero, consistent with their being standing waves. Large fluxes of trapped 90 deg pitch angle 10-eV protons, also symmetric about the geomagnetic equator, were observed in conjunction with the waves. These may serve as a source of free energy for the pulsations. These observations lend support to recent studies suggesting that many dayside compressional wave events are related to localized field line resonance near plasmapauselike boundaries, but also include features that cannot be explained by existing theories.

Engebretson, M. J.↗