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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Institute Study Report

This report documents a study conducted by the MSFC working group on Institutes in 1995 on the structure, organization and business arrangements of Institutes at a time when the agency was considering establishing science institutes. Thirteen institutes, ten science centers associated with the state of Georgia, Stanford Research Institute (SRI), and IIT Research Institute (IITRI), and general data on failed institutes were utilized to form this report. The report covers the working group's findings on institute mission, structure, director, board of directors/advisors, the working environment, research arrangements, intellectual property rights, business management, institute funding, and metrics.

Whitaker, Ann↗

Intelligent Work Process Engineering System

Optimizing performance on work activities and processes requires metrics of performance for management to monitor and analyze in order to support further improvements in efficiency, effectiveness, safety, reliability and cost. Information systems are therefore required to assist management in making timely, informed decisions regarding these work processes and activities. Currently information systems regarding Space Shuttle maintenance and servicing do not exist to make such timely decisions. The work to be presented details a system which incorporates various automated and intelligent processes and analysis tools to capture organize and analyze work process related data, to make the necessary decisions to meet KSC organizational goals. The advantages and disadvantages of design alternatives to the development of such a system will be discussed including technologies, which would need to bedesigned, prototyped and evaluated.

Williams, Kent E.↗

High-Speed Research: Sonic Boom, Volume 1

The second High-Speed Research Program Sonic Boom Workshop was held at NASA Ames Research Center May 12-14, 1993. The workshop was organized into three sessions dealing with atmospheric propagation, acceptability, and configuration design. Volume 1 includes papers on atmospheric propagation and acceptability studies. Significant progress is noted in these areas in the time since the previous workshop a year earlier. In particular, several papers demonstrate an improved capability to model the effect of atmospheric turbulence on sonic booms. This is a key issue in determining the stability and acceptability of shaped sonic booms. In the area of acceptability, the PLdB metric has withstood considerable scrutiny and is validated as a loudness metric for a wide variety of sonic boom shapes. The differential loudness of asymmetric sonic booms is better understood, too.

Edwards, Thomas A.↗

Techno-economic assessment of emerging CO 2 electrolysis technologies

Recycling of waste CO 2 to bulk chemicals has a tremendous potential for the decarbonization of the chemical industry. Quantitative analysis of the prospects of this technology is hindered by the lack of flexible techno-economic assessment (TEA) models that enable evaluation of the processing costs under different deployment scenarios. In this protocol, we explain how to convert literature data into metrics useful for evaluation of the emerging electrolysis technologies, derive TEA models, and illustrate their use with a CO 2 -to-ethylene example. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Barecka et al. (2021a).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Using resonant energy X-ray diffraction to extract chemical order parameters in ternary semiconductors

II–IV–V 2 materials, ternary analogs to III–V materials, are emerging for their potential applications in devices such as LEDs and solar cells. Controlling cation ordering in II–IV–V 2 materials offers the potential to tune properties at nearly fixed compositions and lattice parameters. While tuning properties at a fixed lattice constant through ordering has the potential to be a powerful tool used in device fabrication, cation ordering also creates challenges with characterization and quantification of ordering. In this work, we investigate two different methods to quantify cation ordering in ZnGeP 2 thin films: a stretching parameter calculated from lattice constants , and an order parameter determined from the cation site occupancies ( S ). We use high resolution X-ray diffraction (HRXRD) to determine and resonant energy X-ray diffraction (REXD) to extract S . REXD is critical to distinguish between elements with similar Z -number ( e.g. Zn and Ge). We found that samples with a corresponding to the ordered chalcopyrite structure had only partially ordered S values. The optical absorption onset for these films occurred at lower energy than expected for fully ordered ZnGeP 2 , indicating that S is a more accurate descriptor of cation order than the stretching parameter. Since disorder is complex and can occur on many length scales, metrics for quantifying disorder should be chosen that most accurately reflect the physical properties of interest.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Conus-Wide Mapping of Water Availability and Cost

Background: New demands for water can be satisfied through a variety of source options. In some basins surface and/or groundwater may be available through permitting with the state water management agency (termed unappropriated water), alternatively water might be purchased and transferred out of its current use to another (termed appropriated water), or non-traditional water sources can be captured and treated (e.g., wastewater). The relative availability and cost of each source are key factors in the development decision. Unfortunately, these measures are location dependent with no consistent or comparable set of data available for evaluating competing water sources. With the help of water managers, water availability was mapped for over 2500 watersheds throughout CONUS. These values are unique in that they account for institutional factors (i.e., water rights, compacts, treaties, instream flows) that locally limit water use. Five water sources were individually examined, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water, municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Associated costs to acquire, convey and treat the water, as necessary, for each of the five sources were estimated. These metrics were developed to support regional water planning and policy analysis with initial application to electric transmission planning in the western US. Problem: These data were originally developed in 20141 and updated in 20182. New datasets on which these data depend have been published. As such, there is need to update the water availability and cost data. There is also need to map this same data to a county resolution and to publish the data in a more accessible place. Organization of the dataset: Data are organized according to five primary water sources: • Unappropriated fresh surface water • Unappropriated fresh groundwater • Appropriated water • Recycled wastewater, and • Brackish water

Tidwell, Vincent [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Benefits of Trash-to-Gas Versus Jettison of Waste Via Trash-Lock for Mars Transit

Human exploration missions to Mars pose difficulties due to the significant waste that will be generated during transit, which will need to be carried along or disposed of in some fashion. Waste removal from the spacecraft decreases the spacecraft’s mass as well as the associated logistic items necessary for storing the waste. A mission propellant analysis was performed to highlight the mass benefits that may be accessed via waste removal. The propellant mass savings were determined for different waste removal rates (2.9 – 11.6 kg/day) with the highest removal rate leading to the greatest propellant savings of 7,785 kg for an 850-day round-trip mission. Due to these benefits, two methods for waste reduction were studied for the 850-day Mars mission: Trash-to-Gas (TtG) and physical jettison via a trash-lock. The trash-to-gas methods considered were combustion, steam reforming, and pyrolysis, which convert waste into ventable gases (e.g., CO2, CO, CH4, etc.). Combustion and steam reforming require a co-reactant (O2 and/or H2O). Therefore, additional processing units or integration with the spacecraft’s environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) are required to facilitate recycle of the pertinent species. In contrast, pyrolysis is a purely thermal degradation process, which can operate as a standalone system; however, a lower percentage of waste is gasified with pyrolysis. The study herein compares standalone TtG (e.g., Advanced Organic Waste Gasifier, Plasma Pyrolysis, etc.), integrated TtG-ECLSS (e.g., Orbital Syngas Commodity Augmentation Reactor, Incineration/Gasification, etc.), and physical jettison. Each system’s mass, volume, power, and cooling requirements were compared via an equivalent system mass (ESM) analysis to ascertain potentially promising technologies that can achieve efficient waste removal while minimizing their own spacecraft load. This study highlights the advantages and disadvantages of the different waste management technologies and provides recommendations on the promising technologies based on the ESM metric and propellant mass savings.

Jettison↗

Exploratory study on performance measures as indicators of IS effectiveness

The Information Systems Directorate at JSC/NASA has undertaken the reevaluation of its performance measures process and measures. Under the direction of a quality approach it is essential to identify an external perspective of how well an organization is performing. This study was conducted with two major objectives: (1) survey and summarize the academic literature on performance measures as indicators of information systems (IS) effectiveness; and (2) survey organizations for their experience in measuring for IS effectiveness. Four approaches to measuring the effectiveness of IS performance were identified: (1) listen to the customer for the things they need; (2) align with corporate goals; (3) benchmark against well-respected organizations; and (4) ask yourself what critical factors lead to success. The list of known methods for soliciting customer feedback are as follows: (1) executive visit; (2) survey, interview, and focus group; (3) complaints and compliments; and (4) service level agreements. A common set of characteristics that satisfy customers was identified from the literature. The list includes elements such as the following: accuracy, timeliness, relevance, understandability, reliability, and completeness. Future research in this topic area should prove beneficial to determine the metrics for external validity.

Bishop, Peter C.↗

High-Fidelity and High-Performance Computational Simulations for Rapid Design Optimization of Sulfur Thermal Energy Storage

Industrial process heating (IPH) accounts for approximately 70% of US manufacturing energy use and is primarily produced by fossil fuel combustion. Approximately 1500 TWht (approximately 60%) of IPH demand is in the temperature range of 100-300. Industrial applications in this temperature range include drying, hydrothermal processing, thermal enhanced oil recovery, food and beverage, bioethanol production, etc. Cost-effective thermal energy storage (TES) that increases the utilization of waste and renewable heat (solar, geothermal, etc.) could provide significant energy savings and reliable heat sources, decrease emissions, and increase US manufacturing competitiveness through reductions in fuel consumption. TES development has historically been dominated by technologies suitable for deployment with concentrating solar power (CSP). State-of-the-art thermal storage deployed commercially with power tower CSP plants uses a 60%/40% NaNO3/KNO3 molten salt and operates between temperatures of approximately 280 degrees Celsius and 570 degrees Celsius using a two-tank configuration. However, these nitrate salts are unsuitable for operation outside of this temperature range due to a high freezing point of approximately 220 degrees Celsius, and limits on high-temperature salt stability and corrosion resistance of containment alloys. Other materials being investigated for TES include those based on: (1) sensible energy storage (various molten salt compositions, inert solid particles, rocks or pebble beds, sulfur, water, concrete, graphite, etc.), (2) latent energy storage in materials that undergo solid-liquid phase change at relevant temperatures (organic materials for low-temperature applications, inorganic salts and/or metals for high-temperature applications), or (3) thermochemical energy storage (hydrides, hydroxides, carbonates, metal oxides, etc.). The application temperature and challenges pertaining to storage material and/or containment cost, energy density, long-term thermal and cyclic stability, and charge/discharge heat transfer effectiveness drive material selection for a given IPH or electricity generation application. Sulfur is a cheap commodity at $80/ton compared to $1100 - 1300/ton for conventional salts. When using a metric of storage cost per kWh, sulfur costs around 2-3 $/kWh. Previous sulfur TES development focused on high temperature (>600 degrees) concentrated solar power applications with sulfur encapsulated in pipes and flow of gaseous HTF (air) in the shell side. However, for lower-temperature IPH applications in the range of approximately 100-300 degrees Celsius Element 16 adopted a compact and scalable TES design with molten sulfur in the shell and HTF pipes submerged in the molten sulfur bath. The low-cost molten sulfur TES for dispatchable IPH has deployment potential for broad applications. The spatial and temporal evolution of the HTF and sulfur temperature is critical to the TES system performance, and thus detailed modeling can improve understanding of the performance and facilitate design improvements. Using high performance computing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) a low-cost molten sulfur thermal energy storage (TES) system for industrial process heating (IPH) applications was developed. The unique challenges in CFD modeling of sulfur TES are the sharp property changes of sulfur relevant to the working temperatures. Above 159, liquid sulfur undergoes polymerization, and the viscosity of sulfur rapidly increases by several orders of magnitude between 159 degrees Celsius and 188 degrees Celsius, followed by a decrease in viscosity beyond 188 degrees Celsius due to thermal bound dissociation. In addition, various concentrations of H2S impurities can also modify sulfur viscosity. This numerical challenge is especially relevant to transient simulation of the sulfur TES charging and discharging processes as the extreme property variations limit the applicability of traditional heat transfer correlations. Transient CFD simulations including the temperature-dependent sulfur properties and geometric complexity of the TES design were used to predict the effect of natural convection during charging and discharging on the heat transfer process, sulfur temperature uniformity, charge/discharge rates, and performance of the storage devices. The CFD model was validated with experimental results for a full charge and discharge cycle. The work will show 3D and 2D simulation comparisons aimed to facilitate rapid design iterations and a machine learning based design optimization approach.

CFD↗

Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity

This dataset contains 1,261 hydropower facilities with associated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing metrics. Anticipated FERC license renewal dates are summarized by river reach for observing areas of opportunities for basin-wide collaboration on environmental mitigations. Identifying rivers and basins with facilities that have similar anticipated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing dates may be one potential indicator that multiple licensees within the same basin may be willing to collaborate on a basin-scale relicensing effort. The hydropower relicensing process requires long-term resource allocation by agencies, hydropower owner/operators, non-governmental organizations, and tribal, state, and federal governments. Basin-scale hydropower relicensing has begun to receive attention as a potential solution for reducing licensing timelines, costs, and uncertainty which can provide benefits to a broad spectrum of participants in the licensing process. This dataset contains one a data file in comma separated (*.csv) format, a data dictionary in *.csv format, and a user guide in *.pdf format. These data are also available as an interactive web map available at:

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Environment Partitioning and Reactivity of Polybrominated Diphenylethers

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are an important class of flame retardants. Annual global demand for these compounds was over 67,000 metric tons in 2001. PBDEs have recently been extensively investigated as environmental contaminants because they have been detected in air, sediment, and tissue samples from urban and remote areas. Important issues include quantifying PBDE partitioning in various environmental compartments, and elucidating transformation pathways. The partitioning of PBDE congeners to aerosols was estimated for 16 sites in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The aerosol particles were PM2.5, the total suspended particle (TSP) concentration varied between 3.0 - 55.4 micro g/cubic meter, and the organic fraction ranged from 11 - 41%; these data are published values for each site. It is estimated that the largest fraction of each PBDE associated with the aerosol particles occurs in Mexico City, and the smallest fraction in Colorado Plateau. Although the organic fraction in Mexico City is about 60% of that observed in the Colorado Plateau, the TSP is larger by a factor of about 18.5, and it is the difference in TSP that strongly influences the fraction of particle-bound PBDE in this case. PBDE partitioning to PM2.5 particles also varies seasonally because of temperature variations. For the less brominated congeners the percentage that is particle-bound is relatively low, regardless of air temperature. In contrast, the heavier congeners exhibit a significant temperature dependence: as the temperature decreases (fall, winter) the percentage of PBDE that is particle-bound increases. The partitioning calculations complement experimental data indicating that decabromodiphenyl ether (DBDE) dissolved in hexane transforms very rapidly when irradiated with solar light. DBDE is the most highly brominated PBDE congener (10 bromine atoms) and occurs in the commercial formulation which is subject to the largest global demand.

Hua, Inez↗

Dynamics-Based Peptide–MHC Binding Optimization by a Convolutional Variational Autoencoder: A Use-Case Model for CASTELO

An unsolved challenge in the development of antigen-specific immunotherapies is determining the optimal antigens to target. Comprehension of antigen–major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding is paramount toward achieving this goal. Here, we apply CASTELO, a combined machine learning-molecular dynamics (ML-MD) approach, to identify per-residue antigen binding contributions and then design novel antigens of increased MHC-II binding affinity for a type 1 diabetes-implicated system. We build upon a small-molecule lead optimization algorithm by training a convolutional variational autoencoder (CVAE) on MD trajectories of 48 different systems across four antigens and four HLA serotypes. We develop several new machine learning metrics including a structure-based anchor residue classification model as well as cluster comparison scores. ML-MD predictions agree well with experimental binding results and free energy perturbation-predicted binding affinities. Moreover, ML-MD metrics are independent of traditional MD stability metrics such as contact area and root-mean-square fluctuations (RMSF), which do not reflect binding affinity data. Finally, our work supports the role of structure-based deep learning techniques in antigen-specific immunotherapy design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Test Points for Online Monitoring of Quantum Circuits

Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) computers consisting of tens of inherently noisy quantum bits (qubits) suffer from reliability problems. Qubits and their gates are susceptible to various types of errors. Due to limited numbers of qubits and high error rates, quantum error correction cannot be applied. Physical constraints of quantum hardware including the error rates are used to guide the design and the layout of quantum circuits. The error rates determine the selection of qubits and their operations. The resulting circuit is executed on the quantum computer. This study explores the risk of unexpected changes in the error rates of NISQ computers post-calibration. We show that unexpected changes in error rates can alter the output state of a quantum circuit. To detect these changes, we propose the insertion of test points into the quantum circuit to enable online monitoring of the physical qubit behavior. We utilize classical, superposition, and uncompute test points. Furthermore, we use a gate error coverage metric to assess the quality of the tests. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme on different IBM quantum computers (IBM Q), in addition to a noisy simulation that shows the scalability of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Recent trends in all-organic polymer dielectrics for high-temperature electrostatic energy storage capacitors

Electrostatic energy storage (EES) capacitors are critical for renewable energy and high-power systems, driving the search for dielectric materials that combine superior electrical insulation, mechanical flexibility, low density, cost-effectiveness, and processability. Polymer-based dielectrics have emerged as leading candidates, particularly for high electric field applications. However, conventional polymers often fail to meet the demands of high-temperature environments due to increased electrical conductivity and reduced discharged energy density at elevated temperatures, resulting in energy loss and reduced performance. High glass transition temperature (T g) polymers show promise but require further optimization to enhance their energy storage capabilities under thermal and electrical stress. This review provides a comprehensive update on recent advancements in high-T g polymer-based dielectrics for EES capacitors, focusing on both intrinsic polymers and all-organic composites. It outlines key design principles, critical performance parameters, and innovative strategies—such as nanofiller doping, layered architectures, physical blending, and chemical crosslinking—to improve electrical, thermal, and mechanical properties. The review also highlights emerging trends, including the integration of machine learning algorithms to explore novel polymer structures and expand the chemical design space. By bridging the gap between academic research and industrial application, this review aims to accelerate the development of next-generation dielectric materials capable of balancing multiple performance metrics for high-temperature EES capacitors.

Xie, Zongliang↗

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process maturity progress at Motorola Cellular Systems Division

We believe that the key success elements are related to our recognition that Software Process Improvement (SPI) can and should be organized, planned, managed, and measured as if it were a project to develop a new process, analogous to a software product. We believe that our process improvements have come as the result of these key elements: use of a rigorous, detailed requirements set (Capability Maturity Model, CMM); use of a robust, yet flexible architecture (IEEE 1074); use of a SPI project, resourced and managed like other work, to produce the specifications and implement them; and development of both internal and external goals, with metrics to support them.

Borgstahl, Ron↗