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DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign

The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Worldwide Spacecraft Crew Hatch History

The JSC Flight Safety Office has developed this compilation of historical information on spacecraft crew hatches to assist the Safety Tech Authority in the evaluation and analysis of worldwide spacecraft crew hatch design and performance. The document is prepared by SAIC s Gary Johnson, former NASA JSC S&MA Associate Director for Technical. Mr. Johnson s previous experience brings expert knowledge to assess the relevancy of data presented. He has experience with six (6) of the NASA spacecraft programs that are covered in this document: Apollo; Skylab; Apollo Soyuz Test Project (ASTP), Space Shuttle, ISS and the Shuttle/Mir Program. Mr. Johnson is also intimately familiar with the JSC Design and Procedures Standard, JPR 8080.5, having been one of its original developers. The observations and findings are presented first by country and organized within each country section by program in chronological order of emergence. A host of reference sources used to augment the personal observations and comments of the author are named within the text and/or listed in the reference section of this document. Careful attention to the selection and inclusion of photos, drawings and diagrams is used to give visual association and clarity to the topic areas examined.

Johnson, Gary↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing land-atmosphere interactions to enhance subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability

2025 Advancing Understanding of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Processes on S2S Predictability Workshop What: 227 registered workshop participants gathered in person (43%) and online (57%) to discuss state-of-the-art scientific understanding and modeling of land-atmosphere interactions and related processes in the context of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. Topics covered sources of S2S predictability, land model initialization methods, model diagnosis and evaluation metrics, AI/ML analysis and applications, and coordination of future community multi-model S2S forecast focused experiments. To advance the science, this community workshop, organized by NSF NCAR, NOAA, NASA, and DOE, aimed to 1) identify process- and application-oriented metrics for assessing S2S prediction skill and 2) develop experimental protocols for coordinated experiments to isolate, quantify, and understand the role of land-atmosphere interactions in S2S predictability. When: June 16-18, 2025 Where: Boulder, CO, USA, and online.

Land-Atmosphere Interaction↗

NASA NTRS2005

Propulsion Control Technology Development in the United States A Historical Perspective

This paper presents a historical perspective of the advancement of control technologies for aircraft gas turbine engines. The paper primarily covers technology advances in the United States in the last 60 years (1940 to approximately 2002). The paper emphasizes the pioneering technologies that have been tested or implemented during this period, assimilating knowledge and experience from industry experts, including personal interviews with both current and retired experts. Since the first United States-built aircraft gas turbine engine was flown in 1942, engine control technology has evolved from a simple hydro-mechanical fuel metering valve to a full-authority digital electronic control system (FADEC) that is common to all modern aircraft propulsion systems. At the same time, control systems have provided engine diagnostic functions. Engine diagnostic capabilities have also evolved from pilot observation of engine gauges to the automated on-board diagnostic system that uses mathematical models to assess engine health and assist in post-flight troubleshooting and maintenance. Using system complexity and capability as a measure, we can break the historical development of control systems down to four phases: (1) the start-up phase (1942 to 1949), (2) the growth phase (1950 to 1969), (3) the electronic phase (1970 to 1989), and (4) the integration phase (1990 to 2002). In each phase, the state-of-the-art control technology is described and the engines that have become historical landmarks, from the control and diagnostic standpoint, are identified. Finally, a historical perspective of engine controls in the last 60 years is presented in terms of control system complexity, number of sensors, number of lines of software (or embedded code), and other factors.

Jaw, Link C.a↗

NASA NTRS1999

Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis?

In a recent address at the California Science Center in Los Angeles, Vice President Al Gore articulated a Digital Earth Vision. That vision spoke to developing a multi-resolution, three-dimensional visual representation of the planet into which we can roam and zoom into vast quantities of embedded geo-referenced data. The vision was not limited to moving through space, but also allowing travel over a time-line, which can be set for days, years, centuries, or even geological epochs. A working group of Federal Agencies, developing a coordinated program to implement the Vice President's vision, developed the definition of the Digital Earth as a visual representation of our planet that enables a person to explore and interact with the vast amounts of natural and cultural geo-referenced information gathered about the Earth. One of the challenges identified by the agencies was whether the technology existed that would be available to permanently store and deliver all the digital data that enterprises might want to save for decades and centuries. Satellite digital data is growing by Moore's Law as is the growth of computer generated data. Similarly, the density of digital storage media in our information-intensive society is also increasing by a factor of four every three years. The technological bottleneck is that the bandwidth for transferring data is only growing at a factor of four every nine years. This implies that the migration of data to viable long-term storage is growing more slowly. The implication is that older data stored on increasingly obsolete media are at considerable risk if they cannot be continuously migrated to media with longer life times. Another problem occurs when the software and hardware systems for which the media were designed are no longer serviced by their manufacturers. Many instances exist where support for these systems are phased out after mergers or even in going out of business. In addition, survivability of older media can suffer from physical breakdown of components (e.g. tapes simply lose their magnetic properties after a long time in storage). As a result, a potential data survivability crisis is emerging. The scale of the crisis is comparable to that facing the Social Security System. Sometime in one or two decades, the exponential growth of data will become so great that many enterprises will not be able to migrate through their data to more permanent media during the lifetime of the media on which it resides. This will result in significant losses of data and their resultant impacts. To avoid this crisis, we need to plan and devote greater financial and intellectual resources are needed for the development and refinement of new storage media and migration technologies in order to preserve all data any organization determines worth saving permanently. This talk will explore technological solutions and suggested recommendations to address this technological data crisis.

Halem, Milton↗

NASA NTRS2025

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to Assess Changes to Trabecular Microarchitecture (Trb µArch) of the Hip

BACKGROUND . Calculated loss rates in trabecular (Trb) volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD), in astronauts after return from 6-month long-duration (LD) spaceflight, are rapid relative to menopause-induced loss rates and could contribute to the observed lack of recovery. Perforations in the Trb bony struts, skeletal fragility and fractures [5] have been associated with the rapid rate of bone loss in women due to menopause. The more rapid loss rate observed in astronauts could be inducing similar, irreversible losses of trabecular connectivity as seen in cadaver studies of female skeletons. These changes are not detectable by DXA technology and would not be discovered in astronauts during scheduled, triennial DXA testing for primary osteoporosis. High-resolution-peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) of the lower leg have detected losses in Trb vBMD (vBMD) and changes in Trb microarchitecture (µArch) in astronauts immediately following routine 6-month spaceflights and continuing in some individuals for 1 or more years postflight with no signs of recovery. Resolution of these microarchitectural changes by whole body QCT, especially in the deeply embedded hip bone, is prohibitive due to excessive and unsafe radiation exposures. While HR-pQCT has sufficient resolution to study Trb µArch at safe and lower radiation exposure testing is restricted only to the lower leg and wrist. Hence, a technology to detect detrimental changes to Trb µArch in astronauts, especially of the hip, is needed to inform type and timing of countermeasures to irreversible deficits (preflight, inflight and postflight). METHODS . This HRP-funded study (2023-2027) will verify the sensitivity of a protocol for MRI scanning (on a 3T Siemens Vida) to detect changes to hip Trb µArch in persons following spinal cord injury (SCI); skeletal immobilization below the spinal lesion will serve as an analog for non-weight-bearing during spaceflight. The study period has been extended by 1 yr due to delayed Richmond IRB approval in Y1. A 3T MRI protocol will characterize serial changes in hip Trb µArch in SCI patients from time of admission at the Richmond VA Medical Center to their scheduled annual exam 12-months later. SCI patients with age, sex, and physical characteristics like ISS astronauts will be consented. The ability of 3T MRI hip scan to discriminate loss of trabecular connectivity subjects with SCI will be compared to age- and sex-matched ambulatory controls. A comparison between HR-pQCT and MRI measurements at the ankle (distal tibia) of study subjects will also be performed. A modified DXA scan analysis (3D-Shaper) will also be verified as a potential method for monitoring concurrent changes in hip Trb bone over 12-month. SIGNIFICANCE . Deliverables: a surveillance method for assessing for irreversible losses of connectivity and how skeletal changes after LD spaceflight(s) would modify the terrestrial risk of primary osteoporosis.

Spinal Cord Injury↗

NASA NTRS2025

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to Assess Changes to Trabecular Microarchitecture (Trb µArch) of the Hip

Risk Surveillance↗

NASA NTRS2008

Lead Paint Exposure Assessment in High Bays of Johnson Space Center

This slide presentation reviews the program to assess the possibility of lead paint exposure in the high bays of some of the Johnson Space Center buildings. Some of the buildings in the Manned Space Flight Center (MSC) were built in 1962 and predate any considerations to reduce lead in paints and coatings. There are many of these older buildings that contain open shops and work areas that have open ceilings, These shops include those that had operations that use leaded gasoline, batteries, and lead based paints. Test were planned to be conducted in three phases: (1) Surface Dust sampling, (2) personal exposure montioring, and (3) Ceiling paint Sampling. The results of the first two phases were reviewed. After considering the results of the first two phases, and the problems associated with the retrieval of samples from high ceilings, it was determined that the evaluation of ceiling coatings would be done on a project by project and in response to a complaint.

Stanch, Penney↗

NASA NTRS2003

Effect of Above Real Time Training and Post Flight Feedback in Training of Novice Pilots in a PC-Based Flight Simulator

The use of Post-Flight Feedback (PFFB) and Above Real-Time Training (ARTT) while training novice pilots to perform a coordinated level turn on a PC-based flight simulator was investigated. One group trained at 1.5 ARTT followed by an equal number of flights at 2.0 ARTT; the second group experienced Real Time Training (RTT). The total number of flights for both groups was equal. Each group was further subdivided into two groups one of which was provided PFFB while the other was not. Then, all participants experienced two challenging evaluation missions in real time. Performance was assessed by comparing root-mean-square error in bank-angle and altitude. Participants in the 1.512.0 ARTT No-PFFB sequence did not show improvement in performance across training sessions. An ANOVA on performance in evaluation flights found that the PFFB groups performed significantly better than those with No-PFFB. Also, the RTT groups performed significantly better than the ARTT groups. Data from two additional groups trained under a 2.011.5 ARTT PFFB and No-PFFB regimes were collected and combined with data from the previously Trainers, Real-time simulation, Personal studied groups and reanalyzed to study the computers, Man-in-the-loop simulation influence of sequence. An ANOVA on test trials found no significant effects between groups. Under training situations involving ARTT we recommend that appropriate PFFB be provided.

Khan, M. Javed↗

NASA NTRS1975

Study to define and verify the personal oral hygiene requirements for extended manned space flight: Oral physiology and microbiology in Skylab manned space missions

Methods for metabolic fingerprinting of pathogenic oral bacteria were developed and the effects of Skylab missions on salivary electrolyte levels were studied. High resolution gas liquid chromatographic (GLC) and pyrolysis-GLC procedures were used to obtain metabolic profiles of closely related bacteria associated with dental caries and periodontal disease. It was found that the GLC procedures provide a practical and reproducible means of obtaining metabolic markers for identifying closely related strains of these organisms. Fractions of stimulated whole saliva samples from the prime and back-up crews of the three Skylab missions were used to measure salivary electrolyte concentrations. All the electrolytes previously reported as having increased in urine and feces during the missions were assessed. Sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, phosphorous and chloride were studied. A decrease in sodium and an increase in magnesium were observed, but the mineral imbalances attributable to the mission-related increases in urinary electrolytes were not detected.

Brown, L. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

WELDSMART: A vision-based expert system for quality control

This work was aimed at exploring means for utilizing computer technology in quality inspection and evaluation. Inspection of metallic welds was selected as the main application for this development and primary emphasis was placed on visual inspection, as opposed to other inspection methods, such as radiographic techniques. Emphasis was placed on methodologies with the potential for use in real-time quality control systems. Because quality evaluation is somewhat subjective, despite various efforts to classify discontinuities and standardize inspection methods, the task of using a computer for both inspection and evaluation was not trivial. The work started out with a review of the various inspection techniques that are used for quality control in welding. Among other observations from this review was the finding that most weld defects result in abnormalities that may be seen by visual inspection. This supports the approach of emphasizing visual inspection for this work. Quality control consists of two phases: (1) identification of weld discontinuities (some of which may be severe enough to be classified as defects), and (2) assessment or evaluation of the weld based on the observed discontinuities. Usually the latter phase results in a pass/fail judgement for the inspected piece. It is the conclusion of this work that the first of the above tasks, identification of discontinuities, is the most challenging one. It calls for sophisticated image processing and image analysis techniques, and frequently ad hoc methods have to be developed to identify specific features in the weld image. The difficulty of this task is generally not due to limited computing power. In most cases it was found that a modest personal computer or workstation could carry out most computations in a reasonably short time period. Rather, the algorithms and methods necessary for identifying weld discontinuities were in some cases limited. The fact that specific techniques were finally developed and successfully demosntrated to work illustrates that the general approach taken here appears to be promising for commercial development of computerized quality inspection systems. Inspection based on these techniques may be used to supplement or substitute more elaborate inspection methods, such as x-ray inspections.

Andersen, Kristinn↗

NASA NTRS1980

Assessment of zero gravity effects on space worker health and safety

One objective of the study is to assess the effects of all currently known deviations from normal of medical, physiological, and biochemical parameters which appear to be due to zero gravity (zero-g) environment and to acceleration and deceleration to be experienced, as outlined in the references Solar Power Satellites (SPS) design, by space worker. Study results include identification of possible health or safety effects on space workers either immediate or delayed due to the zero gravity environment and acceleration and deceleration; estimation of the probability that an individual will be adversely affected; description of the possible consequence to work efficiency in persons adversely affected; and description of the possible/probable consequences to immediate and future health of individuals exposed to this environment. A research plan, which addresses the uncertainties in current knowledge regarding the health and safety hazards to exposed SPS space workers, is presented. Although most adverse affects experienced during space flight soon disappeared upon return to the Earth's environment, there remains a definite concern for the long-term effects to SPS space workers who might spend as much as half their time in space during a possible five year career period. The proposed 90 day up/90 day down cycle, coupled with the fact that most of the effects of weightlessness may persist throughout the flight along with the realization that recovery may occupy much of the terrestrial stay, may keep the SPS workers in a deviant physical condition or state of flux for 60 to 100% of their five year career.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1998

Evaluation of Cabin Crew Technical Knowledge

Accident and incident reports have indicated that flight attendants have numerous opportunities to provide the flight-deck crew with operational information that may prevent or essen the severity of a potential problem. Additionally, as carrier fleets transition from three person to two person flight-deck crews, the reliance upon the cabin crew for the transfer of this information may increase further. Recent research (Chute & Wiener, 1996) indicates that light attendants do not feel confident in their ability to describe mechanical parts or malfunctions of the aircraft, and the lack of flight attendant technical training has been referenced in a number of recent reports (National Transportation Safety Board, 1992; Transportation Safety Board of Canada, 1995; Chute & Wiener, 1996). The present study explored both flight attendant technical knowledge and flight attendant and dot expectations of flight attendant technical knowledge. To assess the technical knowledge if cabin crewmembers, 177 current flight attendants from two U.S. carriers voluntarily :ompleted a 13-item technical quiz. To investigate expectations of flight attendant technical knowledge, 181 pilots and a second sample of 96 flight attendants, from the same two airlines, completed surveys designed to capture each group's expectations of operational knowledge required of flight attendants. Analyses revealed several discrepancies between the present level of flight attendants.

Dunbar, Melisa G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Report on the Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers (ATC) Activity 2025 Spring Meeting

The Atmospheric Temperature Change and their Drivers (ATC) Activity brings together experts interested in improving understanding of atmospheric temperature variability and trends and their representation in climate data records. ATC pursues this goal by fostering intercomparisons of atmospheric temperature datasets, providing and improving uncertainty information for climate data records, comparing observations with model simulations, assessing atmospheric temperature trends and their drivers, and documenting their efforts in review papers and assessment reports. The ATC activity convened at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Graz, Austria over April 23 – 25. The purpose of the meeting was to provide updates on research and datasets related to atmospheric temperature change and variability, to identify areas that need further research, and to coordinate ongoing and future collaborations. Meeting themes included theoretical and simulated controls on atmospheric temperature, the development of new and improved atmospheric temperature datasets, and analysis of atmospheric temperature variability and trends. 18 activity members attended the meeting including 12 in-person attendees and 6 remote attendees. Four new early career activity members attended with support from APARC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Data Acquisition and Control Systems of the Jet Noise Laboratory at the NASA Langley Research Center

The features of the data acquisition and control systems of the NASA Langley Research Center's Jet Noise Laboratory are presented. The Jet Noise Laboratory is a facility that simulates realistic mixed flow turbofan jet engine nozzle exhaust systems in simulated flight. The system is capable of acquiring data for a complete take-off assessment of noise and nozzle performance. This paper describes the development of an integrated system to control and measure the behavior of model jet nozzles featuring dual independent high pressure combusting air streams with wind tunnel flow. The acquisition and control system is capable of simultaneous measurement of forces, moments, static and dynamic model pressures and temperatures, and jet noise. The design concepts for the coordination of the control computers and multiple data acquisition computers and instruments are discussed. The control system design and implementation are explained, describing the features, equipment, and the experiences of using a primarily Personal Computer based system. Areas for future development are examined.

Jansen, B. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Deployment of an Advanced Electrocardiographic Analysis (A-ECG) to Detect Cardiovascular Risk in Career Firefighters

INTRODUCTION Sudden cardiac death is the leading cause of line of duty death among firefighters, accounting for approximately 45% of fatalities annually. Firefighters perform strenuous muscular work while wearing heavy, encapsulating personal protective equipment in high ambient temperatures, under chaotic and emotionally stressful conditions. These factors can precipitate sudden cardiac events like myocardial infarction, serious dysrhythmias, or cerebrovascular accidents in firefighters with underlying cardiovascular disease. Screening for cardiovascular risk factors is recommended but not always followed in this population. PHASER is a project charged with identifying and prioritizing risk factors in emergency responders. We have deployed an advanced ECG (A-ECG) system developed at NASA for improved sensitivity and specificity in the detection of cardiac risk. METHODS Forty-four professional firefighters were recruited to perform comprehensive baseline assessments including tests of aerobic performance and laboratory tests for fasting lipid profiles and glucose. Heart rate and conventional 12-lead ECG were obtained at rest and during incremental treadmill exercise testing (XT). In addition, a 5-min resting 12-lead A-ECG was obtained in a subset of firefighters (n=18) and transmitted over a secure networked system to a physician collaborator at NASA for advanced-ECG analysis. This A-ECG system has been proven, using myocardial perfusion and other imaging, to accurately identify a number of cardiac pathologies including coronary artery disease (CAD), left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, and ischemic cardiomyopathy. RESULTS Subjects mean (SD) age was 43 (8) years, weight 91 (13) kg, and BMI of 28 (3) kg/square meter. Maximum oxygen uptake (VO2max) was 39 (9) ml/kg/min. This compares with the 45th %ile in healthy reference values and a recommended standard of 42 ml/kg/min for firefighters. The metabolic threshold (VO2Theta) above which lactate accumulates was 23 (8) ml/kg/min. The chronotropic index, a measure of cardiovascular strain during XT was 35 (8) /L compared with reference values for men of 40 /L. Total cholesterol, LDL-C and HDL-C were 202 (34),126 (29), and 55 (15) mg/dl, respectively. Fifty-one percent of subjects had .3 cardiovascular risk factors, 2 subjects had resting hypertension (BP.140/90), and 23 had pre-hypertension (.120/80 but <140/90). Seven had exaggerated exercise induced hypertension but only one had ST depression on XT ECG, at least one positive A-ECG score for CAD, and documented CAD based on cardiology referral. While all other subjects, including those with fewer risk factors, higher aerobic fitness, and normal exercise ECGs, were classified as healthy by A-ECG, there was no trend for association between risk factors and any of 20 A-ECG parameters in the grouped data. CONCLUSIONS A-ECG screening correctly identified the individual with CAD although there was no trend for A-ECG parameters to distinguish those with elevated BP or multiple risk factors but normal XT ECG. We have demonstrated that a new technology, advanced-ECG, can be introduced for remote firefighter risk assessment. This simple, time and cost-effective approach to risk identification that can be acquired remotely and transmitted securely can detect individuals potentially at risk for line-of-duty death. Additional research is needed to further document its value.

Dolezal, B. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Psychosomatic Bias in Low-dose Radiation Epidemiology: Assessing the Role of Radiophobia and Stress in Cancer Incidence

Abstract Historical assessment of radiation effects at low doses (below 0.2 Sv) are generally the result of back extrapolation from higher doses, which are known to have a linear relation between risk and dose. There are multiple counter-examples, and some literature argues that a threshold, nonlinear, or even a beneficial effect (hormeisis) can occur from radiation below these doses. The common theme found in all of these studies stems from the traditional approach of correlating disease rates to stimulus and then effectively curve-fitting the result toward zero dose. What has not been considered in general are the personal stress levels of the exposed individuals due to fear of cancer from low doses. The increased levels of cortisol due to the psychological stress from fear or depression has been shown in the literature to increase cancer probability. The extent to which low-dose exposed individuals were highly fearful or stressed from the radiation exposure would then give rise to elevated cancer based on stress rather than a fundamental radiogenic mechanism. If the population under epidemiological study is aware of a potential historical exposure (no matter how small) and has then lived under stress from fear or depression due to that exposure, the psychosomatic effects will bias the epidemiology accordingly and so should be quantified and accounted for as done with the effects of smoking. Health Phys. 129(0):000-000; 2025

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗