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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning approaches for influenza A virus risk assessment identifies predictive correlates using ferret model in vivo data

In vivo assessments of influenza A virus (IAV) pathogenicity and transmissibility in ferrets represent a crucial component of many pandemic risk assessment rubrics, but few systematic efforts to identify which data from in vivo experimentation are most useful for predicting pathogenesis and transmission outcomes have been conducted. To this aim, we aggregated viral and molecular data from 125 contemporary IAV (H1, H2, H3, H5, H7, and H9 subtypes) evaluated in ferrets under a consistent protocol. Three overarching predictive classification outcomes (lethality, morbidity, transmissibility) were constructed using machine learning (ML) techniques, employing datasets emphasizing virological and clinical parameters from inoculated ferrets, limited to viral sequence-based information, or combining both data types. Among 11 different ML algorithms tested and assessed, gradient boosting machines and random forest algorithms yielded the highest performance, with models for lethality and transmission consistently better performing than models predicting morbidity. Comparisons of feature selection among models was performed, and highest performing models were validated with results from external risk assessment studies. Our findings show that ML algorithms can be used to summarize complex in vivo experimental work into succinct summaries that inform and enhance risk assessment criteria for pandemic preparedness that take in vivo data into account.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A graph neural network-state predictive information bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) approach for learning molecular thermodynamics and kinetics

Molecular dynamics simulations offer detailed insights into atomic motions but face timescale limitations. Enhanced sampling methods have addressed these challenges but even with machine learning, they often rely on pre-selected expert-based features. Here, in this work, we present a Graph Neural Network-State Predictive Information Bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) framework, which combines graph neural networks and the state predictive information bottleneck to automatically learn low-dimensional representations directly from atomic coordinates. Tested on three benchmark systems, our approach predicts essential structural, thermodynamic and kinetic information for slow processes, demonstrating robustness across diverse systems. The method shows promise for complex systems, enabling effective enhanced sampling without requiring pre-defined reaction coordinates or input features.

Zou, Ziyue↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computing chemical potentials with machine-learning-accelerated simulations to accurately predict thermodynamic properties of molten salts

The successful design and deployment of next-generation nuclear technologies heavily rely on thermodynamic data for relevant molten salt systems. However, the lack of accurate force fields and efficient methods has limited the quality of thermodynamic predictions from atomistic simulations. Here we propose an efficient free energy framework for computing chemical potentials, which is the central free energy quantity behind many thermodynamic properties. We accelerate our simulations without sacrificing accuracy by using machine learning interatomic potentials trained on density functional theory (DFT) data. Using lithium chloride as our model system, we compute chemical potentials with DFT-accuracy for solid and liquid phases by transmuting ions into noninteracting particles. Notably, in the liquid phase, we demonstrate consistency whether we transmute one ion pair or the entire system into ideal gas particles. By locating the temperature where the chemical potential of solid and liquid phases cross, we predict a melting point of 880 ± 18 K for lithium chloride, which is remarkably close to the experimental value of 883 K. With this successful demonstration, we lay the foundation for high-throughput thermodynamic predictions of many properties that can be derived from the chemical potentials of the minority and majority components in molten salts.

Gibson, Luke D. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting turbulent wake flow of marine hydrokinetic turbine arrays in large-scale waterways via physics-enhanced convolutional neural networks

We present a physics-enhanced convolutional neural network (PECNN) algorithm for reconstructing the mean flow and turbulence statistics in the wake of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine arrays installed in large-scale meandering rivers. The algorithm embeds the mass and momentum conservation equations into the loss function of the PECNN algorithm to improve the physical realism of the reconstructed flow fields. The PECNN is trained using large eddy simulation (LES) results of the wake flow of a single row of turbines in a virtual meandering river. Subsequently, the trained PECNN is applied to predict the wake flow of MHK turbines with arrangements and positionings different than those considered during the training process. The PECNN predictions are validated using the results of separately performed LES. The results show that the PECNN algorithm can accurately predict the wake flow of MHK turbine farms at a small fraction of the cost of LES. The PECNN can improve the accuracy by around 1% and reduce the physical constraint indices by around 50% compared to the CNN without physical constraints. This work underscores the potential of PECNN to develop reduced-order models for control co-design and optimization of MHK turbine arrays in natural riverine environments.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using a multistate mapping approach to surface hopping to predict the ultrafast electron diffraction signal of gas-phase cyclobutanone

Using the recently developed multistate mapping approach to surface hopping (multistate MASH) method combined with SA(3)-CASSCF(12,12)/aug-cc-pVDZ electronic structure calculations, the gas-phase isotropic ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) of cyclobutanone is predicted and analyzed. After excitation into the n-3s Rydberg state (S2), cyclobutanone can relax through two S2/S1 conical intersections, one characterized by compression of the CO bond and the other by dissociation of the α–CC bond. Subsequent transfer into the ground state (S0) is then achieved via two additional S1/S0 conical intersections that lead to three reaction pathways: α ring-opening, ethene/ketene production, and CO liberation. The isotropic gas-phase UED signal is predicted from the multistate MASH simulations, allowing for a direct comparison to the experimental data. This work, which is a contribution to the cyclobutanone prediction challenge, facilitates the identification of the main photoproducts in the UED signal and thereby emphasizes the importance of dynamics simulations for the interpretation of ultrafast experiments.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of photodynamics of 200 nm excited cyclobutanone with linear response electronic structure and ab initio multiple spawning

Simulations of photochemical reaction dynamics have been a challenge to the theoretical chemistry community for some time. In an effort to determine the predictive character of current approaches, we predict the results of an upcoming ultrafast diffraction experiment on the photodynamics of cyclobutanone after excitation to the lowest lying Rydberg state (S 2 ). A picosecond of nonadiabatic dynamics is described with ab initio multiple spawning. Herein we use both time dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) and equation-of-motion coupled cluster singles and doubles (EOM-CCSD) theory for the underlying electronic structure theory. We find that the lifetime of the S 2 state is more than a picosecond (with both TDDFT and EOM-CCSD). The predicted ultrafast electron diffraction spectrum exhibits numerous structural features, but weak time dependence over the course of the simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Core performance predictions in projected SPARC first-campaign plasmas with nonlinear CGYRO

This work characterizes the core transport physics of SPARC early-campaign plasmas using the PORTALS-CGYRO framework. Empirical modeling of SPARC plasmas with L-mode confinement indicates an ample window of breakeven (Q > 1) without the need of H-mode operation. Extensive modeling of multi-channel (electron energy, ion energy, and electron particle) flux-matched conditions with the nonlinear CGYRO code for turbulent transport coupled to the macroscopic plasma evolution using PORTALS reveals that the maximum fusion performance to be attained will be highly dependent on the near-edge pressure. Stiff core transport conditions are found, particularly when fusion gain approaches unity, and predicted density peaking is found to be in line with empirical databases of particle source-free H-modes. Impurity optimization is identified as a potential avenue to increase fusion performance while enabling core-edge integration. Extensive validation of the quasilinear TGLF model builds confidence in reduced-model predictions. The implications of projecting L-mode performance to high-performance and burning-plasma devices is discussed, together with the importance of predicting edge conditions.

Rodriguez-Fernandez, P. (ORCID:0000000273611131)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Core-edge integrated predictive studies of ST40 and NSTX plasmas with the scrape-off layer box model

The ability to model the interplay between the core and edge of tokamak plasmas is crucial to designing both the plasma operating scenario of a fusion pilot plant and the design of the tokamak itself. Scrape-off-layer (SOL) models that are tailored to integrated scenario modeling need to have fast turn-around time and minimal computational burden to enable wide parameter-space coverage for design scoping. The SOL 0-D Box model is a reduced SOL model based on global power and particle balance that captures the essential physics of SOL transport with little computational cost. The usage of the 0-D Box model in core-edge coupled simulations has been demonstrated in both interpretive and predictive modes on a variety of devices. This paper presents a sensitivity study of the 0-D Box model to the input SOL heat-flux width for an ST40 plasma. This study demonstrates that accurate prediction of this width is crucial to predicting global performance parameters of a plasma scenario, such as energy confinement time and flux consumption. We also present an extension of the Box model to 1-D to allow for parallel variation of plasma parameters along the magnetic field lines. The 1-D Box model is then compared with SOLPS-ITER simulations of an NSTX plasma. Advantages and limitations of the Box model are discussed, and future directions are outlined.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolving discrepancies in bang-time predictions for indirect-drive ICF experiments on the NIF: Insights from the Build-A-Hohlraum campaign

This study investigated discrepancies between measured and simulated x-ray drive in Indirect-Drive Inertial Confinement Fusion (ID-ICF) hohlraums at the National Ignition Facility. Despite advances in radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, a consistent “drive deficit” remains. Experimentally measured ID-ICF capsule bang-times are systematically 400–700 ps later than simulations predict. The Build-A-Hohlraum (BAH) campaign explored potential causes for this discrepancy by systematically varying hohlraum features, including laser entrance hole (LEH) windows, capsules, and gas fills. Overall, the agreement between simulated and experimental x-ray drive was found to be largely unaffected by these changes. The data allow us to exclude some hypotheses put forward to potentially explain the discrepancy. Errors in the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) atomic modeling, errors in the modeling of LEH closure, and errors due to a lack of plasma species mix physics in simulations are shown to be inconsistent with our measurements. Instead, the data support the hypothesis that errors in NLTE emission modeling are a significant contributor to the discrepancy. X-ray emission in the 2–4 keV range is found to be approximately 30% lower than in simulations. This is accompanied by higher than predicted electron temperatures in the gold bubble region, pointing to errors in non-LTE modeling. Introducing an opacity multiplier of 0.87 on energy groups above 1.8 keV improves agreement with experimental data, reducing the bang-time discrepancy from 300 to 100 ps. These results underscore the need for refined NLTE opacity models to enhance the predictive power of hohlraum simulations.

Band emission↗
DOE OSTI2025

Latent space mapping: Revolutionizing predictive models for divertor plasma detachment control

The inherent complexity of boundary plasma, characterized by multi-scale and multi-physics challenges, has historically restricted high-fidelity simulations to scientific research due to their intensive computational demands. Consequently, routine applications such as discharge control and scenario development have relied on faster but less accurate empirical methods. This work introduces DivControlNN, a novel machine-learning-based surrogate model designed to address these limitations by enabling quasi-real-time predictions (i.e., ~ 0.2 ms) of boundary and divertor plasma behavior. Trained on over 70,000 2D UEDGE simulations from KSTAR tokamak equilibria, DivControlNN employs latent space mapping to efficiently represent complex divertor plasma states, achieving a computational speed-up of over 10 8 compared to traditional simulations while maintaining a relative error below 20% for key plasma property predictions. During the 2024 KSTAR experimental campaign, a prototype detachment control system powered by DivControlNN successfully demonstrated detachment control on its first attempt, even for a new tungsten divertor configuration and without any fine-tuning. These results highlight the transformative potential of DivControlNN in overcoming diagnostic challenges in future fusion reactors by providing fast, robust, and reliable predictions for advanced integrated control systems.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning interatomic potential for predicting the thermal properties of uranium nitride

We present a combined computational and experimental investigation of the thermal properties of uranium nitride (UN), focusing on the development of a machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) using the moment tensor potential framework. The MLIP was trained on density functional theory (DFT) data and validated against various quantities including energies, forces, elastic constants, phonon dispersion, and defect formation energies, achieving excellent agreement with DFT calculations, prior experimental results, and our thermal conductivity measurement. The potential was then employed in molecular dynamics simulations to predict key thermal properties such as melting point, thermal expansion, specific heat, and lattice thermal conductivity. To further assess model accuracy, we fabricated a UN sample and performed new thermal conductivity measurements representative of single-crystal properties, which showed strong agreement with the MLIP predictions. This work confirms the reliability and predictive capability of the developed potential for determining the thermal properties of UN.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the viscoplastic response of a crystallizing fluoropolymer using transient network theory

We employ a molecular theory of dynamic polymer networks to describe the viscoplastic response of rubbery FK-800, a thermoplastic copolymer of chlorotrifluoroethylene and vinylidene fluoride, over a broad range of thermal histories. The kinetics of crystallization at different annealing temperatures was modeled using a modified Avrami equation, whose parameters were found to evolve through simple relationships over the full temperature range of the rubbery state. By fitting experimental compression data, we discovered predictable trends for the physical parameters in our mechanical model over its full range of crystallinities (up to ≈20%) and provided insights based on molecular-level physics to justify them. Using this, an end-to-end model was developed to predict the yielding and post-yield behavior of rubbery FK-800 for arbitrary thermal histories. The model successfully predicted the highly nonlinear evolution of characteristic mechanical signatures (stiffness, yield point, post-yield drop) throughout the crystallization process. A statistical analysis of variance test was employed to determine that the measured variations in the mechanical behavior of rubbery FK-800 are primarily dictated by its fractional crystallinity, regardless of its exact thermal history.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing a predictive science of the biosphere requires the integration of scientific cultures

Increasing the speed of scientific progress is urgently needed to address the many challenges associated with the biosphere in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the critical question becomes: How can science most rapidly progress to address large, complex global problems? We suggest that the lag in the development of a more predictive science of the biosphere is not only because the biosphere is so much more complex, or because we do not have enough data, or are not doing enough experiments, but, in large part, because of unresolved tension between the three dominant scientific cultures that pervade the research community. We introduce and explain the concept of the three scientific cultures and present a novel analysis of their characteristics, supported by examples and a formal mathematical definition/representation of what this means and implies. The three cultures operate, to varying degrees, across all of science. However, within the biosciences, and in contrast to some of the other sciences, they remain relatively more separated, and their lack of integration has hindered their potential power and insight. Our solution to accelerating a broader, predictive science of the biosphere is to enhance integration of scientific cultures. The process of integration—Scientific Transculturalism—recognizes that the push for interdisciplinary research, in general, is just not enough. Unless these cultures of science are formally appreciated and their thinking iteratively integrated into scientific discovery and advancement, there will continue to be numerous significant challenges that will increasingly limit forecasting and prediction efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Atomistic Transitions with Transformers

Accurate knowledge of the atomistic transition pathways in materials and material surfaces is crucial for many material science problems. However, conventional simulation techniques used to find these transitions are extremely computationally intensive. Even with large-scale, accelerated material simulations, the computational cost constrains the applicable domain in practice. Machine learning models, with the potential to learn the complex emergent behaviors governing atomistic transitions as a fast surrogate model, have great promise to predict transitions with a vastly reduced computational cost. Here, we demonstrate how transformers can be trained to predict atomistic transitions in nano-clusters. We show how we evaluate physical validity of the predictions and how a multitude of additional, different microstates can be generated by slightly varying the data provided to the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative Predictive Theories through Integrating Quantum, Statistical, Equilibrium, and Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics

Today's thermodynamics is largely based on the combined law for equilibrium systems and statistical mechanics derived by Gibbs in 1873 and 1901, respectively, while irreversible thermodynamics for nonequilibrium systems resides essentially on the Onsager Theorem as a separate branch of thermodynamics developed in 1930s. Between them, quantum mechanics was invented and was quantitatively solved in terms of density functional theory (DFT) in 1960s. Furthermore, these three scientific domains operate based on different principles and are very much separated from each other. In analogy to the parable of the blind men and the elephant articulated by Perdew, they individually represent different portions of a complex system and thus are incomplete by themselves alone, resulting in the lack of quantitative agreement between their predictions and experimental observations. Over the last two decades, the author's group has developed a multiscale entropy approach (recently termed as zentropy theory) that integrates DFT-based quantum mechanics and Gibbs statistical mechanics and is capable of accurately predicting entropy and free energy of complex systems. Furthermore, in combination with the combined law for nonequilibrium systems developed by Hillert, the author developed the theory of cross phenomena beyond the phenomenological Onsager Theorem. The zentropy theory and theory of cross phenomena jointly provide quantitative predictive theories for systems from electronic to any observable scales as reviewed in the present work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of perturbed parallel magnetic field effects in predicting turbulent transport in NSTX

This study presents analysis of gyrokinetic simulations on the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) to investigate the effects of electromagnetic fields on plasma turbulence and transport. The simulations, performed with varying levels of fidelity using the gyrokinetic CGYRO code, include electrostatic (ES), single-field electromagnetic (EM1), and two-field electromagnetic (EM2) models. A detailed comparison across the simulation database reveals that electromagnetic effects increase both predicted growth rates and quasilinear fluxes, with EM2 simulations producing stronger turbulence than ES and EM1 cases. Quasilinear modeling using QLGYRO demonstrates that while the perturbed parallel magnetic field (δB ∥ ) does not drastically affect the total flux at experimental gradients, it leads to a shift in the dominant instability, altering mode structures from microtearing to kinetic ballooning modes (KBMs). The proximity of the plasma profiles to the KBM threshold is explored, with the experimental conditions being near the onset of KBM-driven transport. The KBM, with its large growth rates, is identified as a potential driver of electron temperature flattening, as it can rapidly transport heat across flux surfaces. Performing stability analysis shows core-localized unstable a low- mode that could contribute to the flattening at the early times of the discharge. TGYRO predictive modeling, incorporating both TGLF and QLGYRO, indicates that the inclusion of δB ∥ significantly improves the accuracy of temperature profile predictions in NSTX high-beta plasmas, although challenges remain in modeling the sharp flux discontinuities caused by KBM-driven instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing predictive capabilities in fusion burning plasmas through surrogate-based optimization in core transport solvers

Abstract This work presents the PORTALS framework (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 076036), which leverages surrogate modeling and optimization techniques to enable the prediction of core plasma profiles and performance with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations at significantly reduced cost, with no loss of accuracy. The efficiency of PORTALS is benchmarked against standard methods, and its full potential is demonstrated on a unique, simultaneous 5-channel (electron temperature, ion temperature, electron density, impurity density and angular rotation) prediction of steady-state profiles in a DIII-D ITER Similar Shape plasma with GPU-accelerated, nonlinear CGYRO (Candy et al 2016 J. Comput. Phys. 324 73–93). This paper also provides general guidelines for accurate performance predictions in burning plasmas and the impact of transport modeling in fusion pilot plants studies.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of transport in the JET DTE2 discharges with TGLF and NEO models using the TGYRO transport code

Abstract The JET Deuterium-Tritium-Experiment Campaign 2 (DTE2) has demonstrated the highest-ever fusion energy production. To forecast the transport dynamics within these discharges, the TGLF and NEO models within the TGYRO transport code were employed. A critical development in this study is the new quasilinear transport model, TGLF-SAT2, specifically designed to resolve discrepancies identified in JET deuterium discharges. This model accurately describes the saturated three-dimensional (3D) fluctuation spectrum, aligning closely with a database of nonlinear CGYRO turbulence simulations, thereby enhancing the predictive accuracy of TGYRO simulations. In validating against the JET DTE2 discharges across two primary operating scenarios, TGYRO effectively predicted the temperature profiles within a broad radial window ( ρ ∼ 0.2–0.85), though with minor ion temperature discrepancies near the core. However, a consistent underprediction of electron density profiles by 20% across the simulation domain was noted, indicating areas for future refinement. To achieve a self-consistent steady-state solution based on the JET DTE2 discharges, an integrated modeling workflow TGYRO-STEP within the OMFIT framework was introduced. This workflow iterates among the core transport, the pedestal pressure and the MHD equilibrium, ultimately yielding a converged solution that significantly reduces dependence on experimental boundary conditions for temperature and density profiles. The integrated simulation results show negligible differences in electron density and temperature profiles compared to standalone TGYRO modeling, while the ion temperature profile is lower due to the updated boundary condition in TGYRO-STEP. The application of the TGYRO-STEP workflow to JET DTE2 discharges serves as a crucial test to validate its robustness and highlights its limitations, providing valuable insights for its potential future application in ITER and Fusion Power Plant deuterium and tritium prediction modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗