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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Genome Sizes and the Benford Distribution

Background: Data on the number of Open Reading Frames (ORFs) coded by genomes from the 3 domains of Life show the presence of some notable general features. These include essential differences between the Prokaryotes and Eukaryotes, with the number of ORFs growing linearly with total genome size for the former, but only logarithmically for the latter. Results: Simply by assuming that the (protein) coding and non-coding fractions of the genome must have different dynamics and that the non-coding fraction must be particularly versatile and therefore be controlled by a variety of (unspecified) probability distribution functions (pdf’s), we are able to predict that the number of ORFs for Eukaryotes follows a Benford distribution and must therefore have a specific logarithmic form. Using the data for the 1000+ genomes available to us in early 2010, we find that the Benford distribution provides excellent fits to the data over several orders of magnitude. Conclusions: In its linear regime the Benford distribution produces excellent fits to the Prokaryote data, while the full nonlinear form of the distribution similarly provides an excellent fit to the Eukaryote data. Furthermore, in their region of overlap the salient features are statistically congruent. This allows us to interpret the difference between Prokaryotes and Eukaryotes as the manifestation of the increased demand in the biological functions required for the larger Eukaryotes, to estimate some minimal genome sizes, and to predict a maximal Prokaryote genome size on the order of 8–12 megabase pairs. These results naturally allow a mathematical interpretation in terms of maximal entropy and, therefore, most efficient information transmission.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Development of a statistically based access delay timeline methodology.

The charter for adversarial delay is to hinder access to critical resources through the use of physical systems increasing an adversary s task time. The traditional method for characterizing access delay has been a simple model focused on accumulating times required to complete each task with little regard to uncertainty, complexity, or decreased efficiency associated with multiple sequential tasks or stress. The delay associated with any given barrier or path is further discounted to worst-case, and often unrealistic, times based on a high-level adversary, resulting in a highly conservative calculation of total delay. This leads to delay systems that require significant funding and personnel resources in order to defend against the assumed threat, which for many sites and applications becomes cost prohibitive. A new methodology has been developed that considers the uncertainties inherent in the problem to develop a realistic timeline distribution for a given adversary path. This new methodology incorporates advanced Bayesian statistical theory and methodologies, taking into account small sample size, expert judgment, human factors and threat uncertainty. The result is an algorithm that can calculate a probability distribution function of delay times directly related to system risk. Through further analysis, the access delay analyst or end user can use the results in making informed decisions while weighing benefits against risks, ultimately resulting in greater system effectiveness with lower cost.

Rivera, W. Gary↗
DOE OSTI2014

Reduced Fast Ion Transport Model For The Tokamak Transport Code TRANSP

Fast ion transport models presently implemented in the tokamak transport code TRANSP [R. J. Hawryluk, in Physics of Plasmas Close to Thermonuclear Conditions, CEC Brussels, 1, 19 (1980)] are not capturing important aspects of the physics associated with resonant transport caused by instabilities such as Toroidal Alfven Eigenmodes (TAEs). This work describes the implementation of a fast ion transport model consistent with the basic mechanisms of resonant mode-particle interaction. The model is formulated in terms of a probability distribution function for the particle's steps in phase space, which is consistent with the MonteCarlo approach used in TRANSP. The proposed model is based on the analysis of fast ion response to TAE modes through the ORBIT code [R. B. White et al., Phys. Fluids 27 , 2455 (1984)], but it can be generalized to higher frequency modes (e.g. Compressional and Global Alfven Eigenmodes) and to other numerical codes or theories.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty quantification tools for multiphase gas-solid flow simulations using MFIX

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely studied and used in the scientific community and in the industry. Various models were proposed to solve problems in different areas. However, all models deviate from reality. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) process evaluates the overall uncertainties associated with the prediction of quantities of interest. In particular it studies the propagation of input uncertainties to the outputs of the models so that confidence intervals can be provided for the simulation results. In the present work, a non-intrusive quadrature-based uncertainty quantification (QBUQ) approach is proposed. The probability distribution function (PDF) of the system response can be then reconstructed using extended quadrature method of moments (EQMOM) and extended conditional quadrature method of moments (ECQMOM). The report first explains the theory of QBUQ approach, including methods to generate samples for problems with single or multiple uncertain input parameters, low order statistics, and required number of samples. Then methods for univariate PDF reconstruction (EQMOM) and multivariate PDF reconstruction (ECQMOM) are explained. The implementation of QBUQ approach into the open-source CFD code MFIX is discussed next. At last, QBUQ approach is demonstrated in several applications. The method is first applied to two examples: a developing flow in a channel with uncertain viscosity, and an oblique shock problem with uncertain upstream Mach number. The error in the prediction of the moment response is studied as a function of the number of samples, and the accuracy of the moments required to reconstruct the PDF of the system response is discussed. The QBUQ approach is then demonstrated by considering a bubbling fluidized bed as example application. The mean particle size is assumed to be the uncertain input parameter. The system is simulated with a standard two-fluid model with kinetic theory closures for the particulate phase implemented into MFIX. The effect of uncertainty on the disperse-phase volume fraction, on the phase velocities and on the pressure drop inside the fluidized bed are examined, and the reconstructed PDFs are provided for the three quantities studied. Then the approach is applied to a bubbling fluidized bed with two uncertain parameters, particle-particle and particle-wall restitution coefficients. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities and gas pressure are provided. The PDFs of the response are reconstructed using EQMOM with appropriate kernel density functions. The simulation results are compared to experimental data provided by the 2013 NETL small-scale challenge problem. Lastly, the proposed procedure is demonstrated by considering a riser of a circulating fluidized bed as an example application. The mean particle size is considered to be the uncertain input parameter. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities, and granular temperature are provided. Mean values and confidence intervals of the quantities of interest are compared to the experiment results. The univariate and bivariate PDF reconstructions of the system response are performed using EQMOM and ECQMOM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Efficient Stochastic Inversion Using Adjoint Models and Kernel-PCA

Performing stochastic inversion on a computationally expensive forward simulation model with a high-dimensional uncertain parameter space (e.g. a spatial random field) is computationally prohibitive even with gradient information provided. Moreover, the ‘nonlinear’ mapping from parameters to observables generally gives rise to non-Gaussian posteriors even with Gaussian priors, thus hampering the use of efficient inversion algorithms designed for models with Gaussian assumptions. In this work, we propose a novel Bayesian stochastic inversion methodology, characterized by a tight coupling between a gradient-based Langevin Markov Chain Monte Carlo (LMCMC) method and a kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This approach addresses the ‘curse-of-dimensionality’ via KPCA to identify a low-dimensional feature space within the high-dimensional and nonlinearly correlated spatial random field. Moreover, non-Gaussian full posterior probability distribution functions are estimated via an efficient LMCMC method on both the projected low-dimensional feature space and the recovered high-dimensional parameter space. We demonstrate this computational framework by integrating and adapting recent developments such as data-driven statistics-on-manifolds constructions and reduction-through-projection techniques to solve inverse problems in linear elasticity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Closure models for the feedback of energetic particles on plasma turbulence

Energetic particles interact with the plasma surrounding them, resonating with certain types of plasma waves to stabilize them while destabilizing others, and changing the character of the background turbulence in ways that have not been fully quantified or understood. Interaction with the turbulent background plasma is key to the acceleration of many types of energetic particles including high-energy cosmic rays, solar energetic particles, and pick-up ions. The acceleration of particles is a process that would ideally be described by a kinetic model, a type of model that follows a probability distribution function (PDF) for all particles in 7-dimensional (x, y, z, v x , v y , v z , t) space. Because of the high dimensionality of a kinetic model, simulations that solve kinetic equations use the largest computational resources currently available, and are yet unable to simulate a realistic number of particles, reach the large scales necessary for astrophysical problems, and use high-precision numerical methods. Two available alternatives to kinetic plasma models have been explored for this problem, with limited success. One is a multi-fluid model produced by a cumulant discarding closure, which evolves coupled equations for the velocity, magnetic field, and internal energy for both the background plasma and the fluid of energetic particles. However, simulations that solve multi-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are able to include the interaction with energetic particles only in crude ways, typically as an add-on pressure term. The second alternative is to use a hybrid method to couple a fluid description of the background plasma to a kinetic model or a Fokker–Planck model for the energetic particles. These methods are hampered by the physical modeling of the coupling. In this work, we develop a new model, which follows the PDF for all particles; this can be viewed as a step toward physical realism above a multi-fluid MHD model, while also being more computationally efficient than a kinetic model. The equations we develop model both the background plasma and the energetic particles self-consistently. Over the last decade, similar PDF methods have been developed to a high level of sophistication to model reactive flows and turbulent combustion for engineering applications. For treatment of the feedback of the energetic particles on a background plasma, a PDF closure approach should evaluate the mean characteristics, including the density, with better statistical quality than will particle-sampling procedures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Nonequilibrium Entropy in a Shock

In a classic paper, Morduchow and Libby use an analytic solution for the profile of a Navier–Stokes shock to show that the equilibrium thermodynamic entropy has a maximum inside the shock. There is no general nonequilibrium thermodynamic formulation of entropy; the extension of equilibrium theory to nonequililbrium processes is usually made through the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). However, gas kinetic theory provides a perfectly general formulation of a nonequilibrium entropy in terms of the probability distribution function (PDF) solutions of the Boltzmann equation. In this paper I will evaluate the Boltzmann entropy for the PDF that underlies the Navier–Stokes equations and also for the PDF of the Mott–Smith shock solution. I will show that both monotonically increase in the shock. As a result, I will propose a new nonequilibrium thermodynamic entropy and show that it is also monotone and closely approximates the Boltzmann entropy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

GLOBAL MODELING OF NEBULAE WITH PARTICLE GROWTH, DRIFT, AND EVAPORATION FRONTS. I. METHODOLOGY AND TYPICAL RESULTS

We model particle growth in a turbulent, viscously evolving protoplanetary nebula, incorporating sticking, bouncing, fragmentation, and mass transfer at high speeds. We treat small particles using a moments method and large particles using a traditional histogram binning, including a probability distribution function of collisional velocities. The fragmentation strength of the particles depends on their composition (icy aggregates are stronger than silicate aggregates). The particle opacity, which controls the nebula thermal structure, evolves as particles grow and mass redistributes. While growing, particles drift radially due to nebula headwind drag. Particles of different compositions evaporate at “evaporation fronts” (EFs) where the midplane temperature exceeds their respective evaporation temperatures. We track the vapor and solid phases of each component, accounting for advection and radial and vertical diffusion. We present characteristic results in evolutions lasting 2 × 10{sup 5} years. In general, (1) mass is transferred from the outer to the inner nebula in significant amounts, creating radial concentrations of solids at EFs; (2) particle sizes are limited by a combination of fragmentation, bouncing, and drift; (3) “lucky” large particles never represent a significant amount of mass; and (4) restricted radial zones just outside each EF become compositionally enriched in the associated volatiles. We point out implications for millimeter to submillimeter SEDs and the inference of nebula mass, radial banding, the role of opacity on new mechanisms for generating turbulence, the enrichment of meteorites in heavy oxygen isotopes, variable and nonsolar redox conditions, the primary accretion of silicate and icy planetesimals, and the makeup of Jupiter’s core.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

No Evidence for Feedback: Unexceptional Low-ionization Winds in Host Galaxies of Low Luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei at Redshift z ∼ 1

We study winds in 12 X-ray AGN host galaxies at z∼1. We find, using the low-ionization Fe ii λ2586 absorption in the stacked spectra, that the probability distribution function (PDF) of the centroid-velocity shift in AGNs has 50th (median), 16th, and 84th percentiles of (−87, −251, +86) km s{sup −1} respectively. The PDF of the velocity dispersion in AGNs has 50th (median), 84th, and 16th percentiles of (139, 253, 52) km s{sup −1} respectively. The centroid velocity and the velocity dispersions are obtained from a two-component (ISM+wind) absorption-line model. The equivalent width PDF of the outflow in AGNs has 50th (median), 84th, and 16th percentiles of (0.4, 0.8, 0.1) Å. There is a strong ISM component in Fe ii λ2586 absorption (with (1.2, 1.5, 0.8) Å, implying the presence of a substantial amount cold gas in the host galaxies. For comparison, star-forming and X-ray undetected galaxies at a similar redshift, matched roughly in stellar mass and galaxy inclination, have a centroid-velocity PDF with percentiles of (−74, −258, +90) km s{sup −1}, and a velocity-dispersion PDF with percentiles of (150, 259, 57) km s{sup −1}. Thus, winds in the AGN are similar to star formation-driven winds, and are too weak to escape and expel substantial cool gas from galaxies. Our sample doubles the previous sample of AGNs studied at z∼0.5 and extends the analysis to z∼1. A joint reanalysis of the z∼0.5 AGN sample and our sample yields consistent results to the measurements above.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

New Fitting Formula for Cosmic Nonlinear Density Distribution

We have measured the probability distribution function (PDF) of a cosmic matter density field from a suite of N-body simulations. We propose the generalized normal distribution of version 2 (N{sub v2}) as an alternative fitting formula to the well-known log-normal distribution. We find that N{sub v2} provides a significantly better fit than that of the log-normal distribution for all smoothing radii (2, 5, 10, 25 [Mpc h {sup −1}]) that we studied. The improvement is substantial in the underdense regions. The development of non-Gaussianities in the cosmic matter density field is captured by continuous evolution of the skewness and shift parameters of the N{sub v2} distribution. We present the redshift evolution of these parameters for aforementioned smoothing radii and various background cosmology models. All the PDFs measured from large and high-resolution N-body simulations that we use in this study can be obtained from the web site https://astro.kias.re.kr/jhshin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Deriving the Contribution of Blazars to the Fermi -LAT Extragalactic γ -ray Background at E > 10 GeV with Efficiency Corrections and Photon Statistics

Here, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) Collaboration has recently released the Third Catalog of Hard Fermi -LAT Sources (3FHL), which contains 1556 sources detected above 10 GeV with seven years of Pass 8 data. Building upon the 3FHL results, we investigate the flux distribution of sources at high Galactic latitudes ($|b| \gt 20^\circ $), which are mostly blazars. We use two complementary techniques: (1) a source-detection efficiency correction method and (2) an analysis of pixel photon count statistics with the one-point probability distribution function (1pPDF). With the first method, using realistic Monte Carlo simulations of the γ-ray sky, we calculate the efficiency of the LAT to detect point sources. This enables us to find the intrinsic source-count distribution at photon fluxes down to 7.5 × 10 –12 ph cm –2 s –1 . With this method, we detect a flux break at (3.5 ± 0.4) × 10 –11 ph cm –2 s –1 with a significance of at least 5.4σ. The power-law indexes of the source-count distribution above and below the break are 2.09 ± 0.04 and 1.07 ± 0.27, respectively. This result is confirmed with the 1pPDF method, which has a sensitivity reach of ~10 –11 ph cm –2 s –1 . Integrating the derived source-count distribution above the sensitivity of our analysis, we find that (42 ± 8)% of the extragalactic γ-ray background originates from blazars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Inference of the Symmetry Energy of Superdense Neutron-rich Matter from Future Radius Measurements of Massive Neutron Stars

In this work, using as references the posterior probability distribution functions of the equation of state (EOS) parameters inferred from the radii of canonical neutron stars (NSs) reported by the LIGO/VIRGO and NICER Collaborations based on their observations of GW170817 and PSR J0030+0451, we investigate how future radius measurements of more massive NSs will improve our current knowledge about the EOS of superdense neutron-rich nuclear matter, especially its symmetry energy term. Within the Bayesian statistical approach using an explicitly isospin-dependent parametric EOS for the core of NSs, we infer the EOS parameters of superdense neutron-rich nuclear matter from three sets of imagined mass–radius correlation data representing typical predictions by various nuclear many-body theories, that is, the radius stays the same, decreases, or increases with increasing NS mass within ±15% between 1.4 and 2.0 M$_\odot$. The corresponding NS average density increases quickly or slowly or slightly decreases as the NS mass increases from 1.4 to 2.0 M$_\odot$. While the EOSs of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) inferred from the three data sets are approximately the same, the corresponding symmetry energies above about twice the saturation density of nuclear matter are very different, indicating that the radii of massive NSs carry important information about the high-density behavior of nuclear symmetry energy with little influence from the remaining uncertainties of the SNM EOS at suprasaturation densities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE DISTRIBUTION OF MASS SURFACE DENSITIES IN A HIGH-MASS PROTOCLUSTER

We study the probability distribution function (PDF) of mass surface densities, Σ, of infrared dark cloud (IRDC) G028.37+00.07 and its surrounding giant molecular cloud. This PDF constrains the physical processes, such as turbulence, magnetic fields, and self-gravity, that are expected to be controlling cloud structure and star formation activity. The chosen IRDC is of particular interest since it has almost 100,000 solar masses within a radius of 8 pc, making it one of the most massive, dense molecular structures known and is thus a potential site for the formation of a “super star cluster.” We study Σ in two ways. First, we use a combination of NIR and MIR extinction maps that are able to probe the bulk of the cloud structure up to Σ ∼ 1 g cm{sup −2}( A {sub V}≃ 200 mag). Second, we study the FIR and submillimeter dust continuum emission from the cloud utilizing Herschel -PACS and SPIRE images and paying careful attention to the effects of foreground and background contamination. We find that the PDFs from both methods, applied over a ∼20′(30 pc)-sized region that contains ≃1.5 × 10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙} and enclosing a minimum closed contour with Σ ≃ 0.013 g cm{sup −2} ( A {sub V} ≃ 3 mag), shows a lognormal shape with the peak measured at Σ ≃ 0.021 g cm{sup −2} ( A {sub V}≃ 4.7 mag). There is tentative evidence for the presence of a high-Σ power-law tail that contains from ∼3% to 8% of the mass of the cloud material. We discuss the implications of these results for the physical processes occurring in this cloud.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Statistical Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant from the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Compact Object Merger GW190814 and Dark Energy Survey Galaxies

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the gravitational wave (GW) event GW190814, which resulted from the coalescence of a 23 M ⊙ black hole with a 2.6 M ⊙ compact object, as a standard siren. No compelling electromagnetic counterpart has been identified for this event; thus our analysis accounts for thousands of potential host galaxies within a statistical framework. The redshift information is obtained from the photometric redshift (photo- z ) catalog from the Dark Energy Survey. The luminosity distance is provided by the LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave sky map. Since this GW event has the second-smallest localization volume after GW170817, GW190814 is likely to provide the best constraint on cosmology from a single standard siren without identifying an electromagnetic counterpart. Furthermore, our analysis uses photo- z probability distribution functions and corrects for photo- z biases. We also reanalyze the binary black hole GW170814 within this updated framework. We explore how our findings impact the H 0 constraints from GW170817, the only GW merger associated with a unique host galaxy. From a combination of GW190814, GW170814, and GW170817, our analysis yields H 0 =72.0$_{+12}^{–8.2}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest-density interval, HDI) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20 and 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . The addition of GW190814 and GW170814 to GW170817 improves the 68% HDI from GW170817 alone by ~18%, showing how well-localized mergers without counterparts can provide a significant contribution to standard siren measurements, provided that a complete galaxy catalog is available at the location of the event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗