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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF 50 YEARS OF DAILY SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DATA

Daily mean value of solar wind velocity measured by various spacecraft near the Earth’s orbit from 1963 November 27 to 2013 December 31 given by OMNIWeb is utilized to investigate its characteristics through statistical analyses. The percent probability distribution of solar wind velocity can be described well by the Γ distribution function with the most probable velocity to be 373 km s{sup -1}. It is found that solar wind could be statistically classified into three groups: (1) the low-velocity wind, v<450 km s{sup -1}, which positively responds to, and in the cycle phase lags, the solar activity cycle; (2) the high-velocity wind, 450≤v<725 km s{sup -1}, which negatively responds to, and in the cycle phase leads, the solar activity cycle, but in a short timescale (one-rotation-period) lags the solar activity cycle; and (3) the extreme-high-velocity wind, v≥725 km s{sup -1}, which positively responds to, and in cycle phase leads, the solar activity cycle. A period of about 27 days is determined for solar wind in the first two groups, so that solar wind in the groups is modulated by the solar rotation and related with solar long-life magnetic structures. Solar wind of extreme high velocity appears mainly at the descending phases of the solar cycles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant status are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.

Rabiti, Cristian↗
DOE OSTI2023

The relationship between the incidence of X-ray selected AGN in nearby galaxies & star-formation rate

ABSTRACT We present the identification and analysis of an X-ray selected AGN sample that lie within the local (z < 0.35) galaxy population. From a parent sample of 22 079 MPA-JHU (based on SDSS DR8) galaxies, we identified 917 galaxies with central, excess X-ray emission (from 3XMM-DR7) likely originating from an AGN. We measured the host galaxies’ star formation rates and classified them as either star-forming or quiescent based on their position relative to main sequence of star formation. Only 72 per cent of the X-ray selected sample were identified as AGN using BPT selection; this technique is much less effective in quiescent hosts, only identifying 50 per cent of the X-ray AGN. We also calculated the growth rates of the black holes powering these AGN in terms of their specific accretion rate (∝ LX/M*) and found quiescent galaxies, on average, accrete at a lower rate than star-forming galaxies. Finally, we measured the sensitivity function of 3XMM so we could correct for observational bias and construct probability distributions as a function of accretion rate. AGN were found in galaxies across the full range of star formation rates ($\log _{10} \, \mathrm{SFR/M_\odot \ yr^{-1}} = -3\ \mathrm{to}\ 2$) in both star-forming and quiescent galaxies. The incidence of AGN was enhanced by a factor 2 (at a 3.5σ significance) in star-forming galaxies compared to quiescent galaxies of equivalent stellar mass and redshift, but we also found a significant population of AGN hosted by quiescent galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic average model methods

We consider the solution of finite-sum minimization problems, such as those appearing in nonlinear least-squares or general empirical risk minimization problems. We are motivated by problems in which the summand functions are computationally expensive and evaluating all summands on every iteration of an optimization method may be undesirable. Here we present the idea of stochastic average model (SAM) methods, inspired by stochastic average gradient methods. SAM methods sample component functions on each iteration of a trust-region method according to a discrete probability distribution on component functions; the distribution is designed to minimize an upper bound on the variance of the resulting stochastic model. We present promising numerical results concerning an implemented variant extending the derivative-free model-based trust-region solver POUNDERS, which we name SAM-POUNDERS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probability Density Function for the spatial and intensity distribution of neutron-induced defects in Silicon

The ability to model semiconductor device degradation under neutron irradiation depends upon having a robust modeling capability for the neutron-induced collision cascades as well as a means to analytically fit the resulting probability distributions of defect production and ionizing energy deposition for purposes of extrapolation to low-probability, high-consequence scenarios. In this paper, the widely-utilized binary collision approximation codes MARLOWE and SRIM are deployed in conjunction with a critical examination of their parameterizations as benchmarked against higher-fidelity molecular dynamics simulations. A simple 3-parameter form described by the Generalized Logistic Distribution is shown to be a good fit to Frenkel pair and ionization intensity distributions in bulk silicon. The BCA codes are then applied to simulate cascades in 5 nm layers of a representative gate-all-around nanosheet transistor, where joint probability distributions of threshold levels of damage to multiple layers are evaluated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

System of ideal quantum dots with Coulomb interaction

The wave functions of single-electron states localised on a system of single-level ideal quantum dots in a semiconductor matrix are constructed. The standard Kane theory, which describes the renormalisation of the effective mass of electrons in bulk III − V semiconductors, is transformed, for the first time as far as we know, for small-size quantum dots. The renormalised electron mass in a quantum dot depends on its ground state energy, which, in turn, depends on this mass. Thus, a self-consistent problem is obtained for calculating the electron binding energy. The radius of the Debye screening of the Coulomb interaction in a system of quantum dots is calculated at room temperature. The Coulomb repulsion of electrons localised on dots limits from above the possible number of filled dots. The condition is formulated for the optimal concentration of quantum dots. A classical distribution function for the probability of quantum dot filling is constructed. It is found the state, where electrons fill exactly half the maximum possible number of filled dots, exhibits the minimal energy (and therefore the most stable), the condition being fairly universal. In particular, it can be used to estimate the limiting efficiency of quantum-dot diode lasers. (quantum dots)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2011

Density fields and halo mass functions in the geometrical adhesion toy model

In dimension 2 and above, the Burgers dynamics, the so-called 'adhesion model' in cosmology, can actually give rise to several dynamics in the inviscid limit. We investigate here the statistical properties of the density field when it is defined by a 'geometrical model' associated with this Burgers velocity field and where the matter distribution is fully determined, at each time step, by geometrical constructions. Our investigations are based on a set of numerical experiments that make use of an improved algorithm, for which the geometrical constructions are efficient and robust. In this work we focus on Gaussian initial conditions with power-law power spectra of slope n in the range -3<n<1, where a self-similar evolution develops, and we compute the behavior of power spectra, density probability distributions and mass functions. As expected for such dynamics, the density power spectra show universal high-k tails that are governed by the formation of pointlike masses. The two other statistical indicators however show the same qualitative properties as those observed for 3D gravitational clustering. In particular, the mass functions obey a Press-Schechter like scaling up to a very good accuracy in 1D, and to a lesser extent in 2D. Our results suggest that the 'geometrical adhesion model', whose solution is fully known at all times, provides a precious tool to understand some of the statistical constructions frequently used to study the development of mass halos in gravitational clustering.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

How to optimally constrain galaxy assembly bias: supplement projected correlation functions with count-in-cells statistics

Most models for the statistical connection between galaxies and their haloes ignore the possibility that galaxy properties may be correlated with halo properties other than halo mass, a phenomenon known as galaxy assembly bias. And yet, it is known that such correlations can lead to systematic errors in the interpretation of survey data that are analysed using traditional halo occupation models. At present, the degree to which galaxy assembly bias may be present in the real Universe, and the best strategies for constraining it remain uncertain. We study the ability of several observables to constrain galaxy assembly bias from redshift survey data using the decorated halo occupation distribution (dHOD), an empirical model of the galaxy-halo connection that incorporates assembly bias. We cover an expansive set of observables, including the projected two-point correlation function w p ( r p ), the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal &Delta;Σ( r p ), the void probability function VPF( r ), the distributions of counts-in-cylinders P(NCIC), and counts-in-annuli P(NCIA), and the distribution of the ratio of counts in cylinders of different sizes P ( N 2 /N 5 ). We find that despite the frequent use of the combination w p ( r p ) + &Delta;Σ( r p ) in interpreting galaxy data, the count statistics, P ( N CIC ) and P ( N CIA ), are generally more efficient in constraining galaxy assembly bias when combined with w p ( r p ). Constraints based upon w p ( r p ) and &Delta;Σ(rp) share common degeneracy directions in the parameter space, while combinations of r p w p ( r p ) with the count statistics are more complementary. Therefore, we strongly suggest that count statistics should be used to complement the canonical observables in future studies of the galaxy-halo connection.

galaxies: evolution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mass distributions of dijet resonances from excited quarks at proton-proton colliders

We study the expected experimental mass distributions of dijet resonances from excited quarks in proton-proton collisions at energies $\sqrt{s}$ = 13, 14, 27, 100, 300, and 500 TeV. We explore in detail the expected shapes at both the generator and experimental levels, and identify within the distributions the effects of the excited quark natural width, parton momentum distributions of the proton, radiation, and experimental resolution. We present both differential and cumulative probability distributions as a function of dijet mass, and the signal acceptance of a window in dijet mass centered on each resonance. We find that for a range of resonance masses, between 10% and 50% of $\sqrt{s}$, the dijet mass distributions and window acceptance are practically universal, approximately invariant under changes in resonance mass and $\sqrt{s}$. This universality is violated when the resonance mass reaches 60% of $\sqrt{s}$, because the steepness of the parton momentum distributions of the proton produces a significant tail at low dijet mass. This work supports our Snowmass 2021 study on the sensitivity to dijet resonances at proton-proton colliders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The asymmetry of antimatter in the proton

The fundamental building blocks of the proton—quarks and gluons—have been known for decades. However, we still have an incomplete theoretical and experimental understanding of how these particles and their dynamics give rise to the quantum bound state of the proton and its physical properties, such as its spin1. The two up quarks and the single down quark that comprise the proton in the simplest picture account only for a few per cent of the proton mass, the bulk of which is in the form of quark kinetic and potential energy and gluon energy from the strong force2. An essential feature of this force, as described by quantum chromodynamics, is its ability to create matter–antimatter quark pairs inside the proton that exist only for a very short time. Their fleeting existence makes the antimatter quarks within protons difficult to study, but their existence is discernible in reactions in which a matter–antimatter quark pair annihilates. In this picture of quark–antiquark creation by the strong force, the probability distributions as a function of momentum for the presence of up and down antimatter quarks should be nearly identical, given that their masses are very similar and small compared to the mass of the proton. Here we provide evidence from muon pair production measurements that these distributions are considerably different, with more abundant down antimatter quarks than up antimatter quarks over a wide range of momenta. These results are expected to revive interest in several proposed mechanisms for the origin of this antimatter asymmetry in the proton that had been disfavoured by previous results, and point to future measurements that can distinguish between these mechanisms.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Publisher Correction: The asymmetry of antimatter in the proton

The fundamental building blocks of the proton—quarks and gluons—have been known for decades. However, we still have an incomplete theoretical and experimental understanding of how these particles and their dynamics give rise to the quantum bound state of the proton and its physical properties, such as its spin1. The two up quarks and the single down quark that comprise the proton in the simplest picture account only for a few per cent of the proton mass, the bulk of which is in the form of quark kinetic and potential energy and gluon energy from the strong force2. An essential feature of this force, as described by quantum chromodynamics, is its ability to create matter–antimatter quark pairs inside the proton that exist only for a very short time. Their fleeting existence makes the antimatter quarks within protons difficult to study, but their existence is discernible in reactions in which a matter–antimatter quark pair annihilates. In this picture of quark–antiquark creation by the strong force, the probability distributions as a function of momentum for the presence of up and down antimatter quarks should be nearly identical, given that their masses are very similar and small compared to the mass of the proton3. Here we provide evidence from muon pair production measurements that these distributions are considerably different, with more abundant down antimatter quarks than up antimatter quarks over a wide range of momenta. These results are expected to revive interest in several proposed mechanisms for the origin of this antimatter asymmetry in the proton that had been disfavoured by previous results4, and point to future measurements that can distinguish between these mechanisms.

Dove, J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Intermittent fluctuations in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer for ohmic and high confinement mode plasmas

Plasma fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of the Alcator C-Mod tokamak in ohmic and high confinement modes have been analyzed using gas puff imaging data. In all cases investigated, the time series of emission from a single spatially resolved view into the gas puff are dominated by large-amplitude bursts, attributed to blob-like filament structures moving radially outwards and poloidally. There is a remarkable similarity of the fluctuation statistics in ohmic plasmas and in edge localized mode-free and enhanced D-alpha high confinement mode plasmas. Conditionally averaged waveforms have a two-sided exponential shape with comparable temporal scales and asymmetry, while the burst amplitudes and the waiting times between them are exponentially distributed. The probability density functions and the frequency power spectral densities are similar for all these confinement modes. These results provide strong evidence in support of a stochastic model describing the plasma fluctuations in the scrape-off layer as a super-position of uncorrelated exponential pulses. Predictions of this model are in excellent agreement with experimental measurements in both ohmic and high confinement mode plasmas. Finally, the stochastic model thus provides a valuable tool for predicting fluctuation-induced plasma–wall interactions in magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Stochastic Programming [SWR-26-040]

The Quantum Stochastic Programming tool contains quantum computing algorithms for two-stage stochastic optimization, with a focus on the Unit Commitment (UC) problem in power systems. The algorithms combine Discrete Quantum Annealing (DQA) with Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) to compute expected-value objective functions over a probability distribution of wind-power scenarios. Based on: arXiv 2402.15029 - "Quantum algorithms for the two-stage stochastic unit commitment problem"

Maack, Jonathan [National Laboratory of the Rockie↗
DOE OSTI2014

Parameter Tuning and Calibration of RegCM3 with MIT-Emanuel Cumulus Parameterization Scheme over CORDEX East Asian Domain

In this study, we calibrated the performance of regional climate model RegCM3 with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)-Emanuel cumulus parameterization scheme over CORDEX East Asia domain by tuning the selected seven parameters through multiple very fast simulated annealing (MVFSA) sampling method. The seven parameters were selected based on previous studies, which customized the RegCM3 with MIT-Emanuel scheme through three different ways by using the sensitivity experiments. The responses of model results to the seven parameters were investigated. Since the monthly total rainfall is constrained, the simulated spatial pattern of rainfall and the probability density function (PDF) distribution of daily rainfall rates are significantly improved in the optimal simulation. Sensitivity analysis suggest that the parameter “relative humidity criteria” (RH), which has not been considered in the default simulation, has the largest effect on the model results. The responses of total rainfall over different regions to RH were examined. Positive responses of total rainfall to RH are found over northern equatorial western Pacific, which are contributed by the positive responses of explicit rainfall. Followed by an increase of RH, the increases of the low-level convergence and the associated increases in cloud water favor the increase of the explicit rainfall. The identified optimal parameters constrained by the total rainfall have positive effects on the low-level circulation and the surface air temperature. Furthermore, the optimized parameters based on the extreme case are suitable for a normal case and the model’s new version with mixed convection scheme.

emanual cumulus parameterization↗
DOE OSTI2019

Thermodynamic versus Dynamic Controls on Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble

The moisture budget is evaluated as a function of the probability distribution of precipitation for the end of the twentieth century and projected end of the twenty-first century in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. For a given precipitation percentile, a conditional moisture budget equation relates precipitation minus evaporation ( P − E) to vertical moisture transport, horizontal moisture advection, and moisture storage. At high percentiles, moisture advection and moisture storage cancel and evaporation is negligible, so that precipitation is approximately equal to vertical moisture transport, and likewise for projected changes. Therefore, projected changes to extreme precipitation are approximately equal to the sum of thermodynamic and dynamic tendencies, representing changes to the vertical profiles of moisture content and mass convergence, respectively. The thermodynamic tendency is uniform across percentiles and regions as an intensification of the hydrological cycle, but the dynamic tendency is more complex. For extreme events, per degree of warming, in the mid-to-high latitudes the dynamic tendency is small, so that precipitation approximately scales by the Clausius–Clapeyron 7% K −1 increase. In the subtropics, a drying tendency originating from dynamics offsets the thermodynamic wetting tendency, with the net effect on precipitation varying among regions. The effect of this dynamic drying decreases with increasing percentile. In the deep tropics, a positive dynamic tendency occurs with magnitude similar to or greater than the positive thermodynamic tendency, resulting in generally a 10%–15% K −1 precipitation increase, and with a >25% K −1 increase over the tropical east Pacific. This reinforcing dynamical tendency increases rapidly for high percentiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗