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NASA NTRS1992

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Observational evidence of preferred flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere

Ten years of stratospheric geopotential height data are analyzed in an attempt to determine whether there are preferred flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. The data are taken from Stratospheric Sounding Units on board NOAA satellites. The probability density estimate of the amplitude of the wavenumber 1 10-mb height is found to be bimodal. The density distribution is composed of a dominant large-amplitude mode and a less frequent low-amplitude mode. When the wavenumber 1 10-mb height data are projected onto the phase plane defined by the 10-mb zonal-mean winds and wavenumber 1 100-mb heights, three preferred regimes are evident. The small-amplitude mode separates into a strong zonal wind-weak wave regime and a weak zonal wind-weak wave regime. The large-amplitude mode is an intermediate zonal wind-strong wave regime. Transitions between the large-amplitude regime and the weak zonal wind-weak wave regime are found to be associated with major stratospheric warmings. The clustering of the stratospheric data into the preferred flow regimes is interpreted in light of the bifurcation properties of the Holton and Mass model. The interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere is interpreted in terms of the relative frequency of the observed preferred regimes.

Pierce, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Design of partially supervised classifiers for multispectral image data

A partially supervised classification problem is addressed, especially when the class definition and corresponding training samples are provided a priori only for just one particular class. In practical applications of pattern classification techniques, a frequently observed characteristic is the heavy, often nearly impossible requirements on representative prior statistical class characteristics of all classes in a given data set. Considering the effort in both time and man-power required to have a well-defined, exhaustive list of classes with a corresponding representative set of training samples, this 'partially' supervised capability would be very desirable, assuming adequate classifier performance can be obtained. Two different classification algorithms are developed to achieve simplicity in classifier design by reducing the requirement of prior statistical information without sacrificing significant classifying capability. The first one is based on optimal significance testing, where the optimal acceptance probability is estimated directly from the data set. In the second approach, the partially supervised classification is considered as a problem of unsupervised clustering with initially one known cluster or class. A weighted unsupervised clustering procedure is developed to automatically define other classes and estimate their class statistics. The operational simplicity thus realized should make these partially supervised classification schemes very viable tools in pattern classification.

Jeon, Byeungwoo↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Equations for Estimating the Strength of TV Signals Scattered by Wind Turbines

During the late 1970's and early 1980's, concerns about the potential interference of wind turbine generators with electromagnetic communication signals led to a series of research studies, both in the laboratory and in the field, conducted by the staff of the University of Michigan Radiation Laboratory. These studies were sponsored by organizations such as the U.S. Department of Energy, the Solar Energy Research Institute, and private developers of wind power stations. Research objectives were to identify the mechanisms by which wind turbines might adversely affect communication signals, estimate the severity of these effects for different types of signals (e.g. television, radio, microwave, and navigation), and formulate mathematical models with which to predict the sizes of potential interference zones around wind turbines and wind power plants. This work formed the basis for preliminary standards on assessing electromagnetic interference (EMI) by wind turbines. With the current renewal of interest in wind energy projects, it is appropriate that the many experimental and analytical aspects of this pioneering work be reviewed and correlated. The purpose of this study is to combine test data and theory from previously published and unpublished research reports into a unified and consistent set of equations which are useful for estimating potential levels of television interference from wind turbines. To be comprehensive, these equations will include both horizontal-axis and vertical-axis wind turbines (HAWT's and VAWT's), blade configuration parameters (e.g. number, size, material, twist, and coning), signal frequency and power, and directional characteristics of the receiving antenna. The approach that is followed in this report is as follows. First, some basic equations that describe electromagnetic signals with interference are presented without detailed derivations, since the latter are available in the references. Minor changes in terminology are made for purposes of consistency. Next, the concept of a signal scatter ratio is introduced, which defines the fraction of the signal impinging on a wind turbine that is scattered by its blades onto a nearby receiver. Equations from references are modified for the calculation of experimental scatter ratios (from measured signals containing interference) and idealized scatter ratios (from rotor characteristics and relative locations of the transmitter, the turbine, and the receiver). Experimental and idealized scatter ratios are then calculated and compared for 75 cases from the literature, in which TVI measurements were made around a variety of wind turbines. An empirical equation is then defined for estimating the probability that an actual scatter ratio will differ from an idealized ratio by a given amount. Finally a sample calculation of the size of a potential TV interference zone around a hypothetical wind power station is presented.

Spera, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Biogenic nonmethane hydrocarbon emissions estimated from tethered balloon observations

A new technique for estimating surface fluxes of trace gases, the mixed-layer gradient technique, is used to calculate isoprene and terpene emissions from forests. The technique is applied to tethered balloon measurements made over the Amazon forest and a pine-oak forest in Alabama at altitudes up to 300 m. The observations were made during the dry season Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE 2A) and the Rural Oxidants in the Southern Environment 1990 experiment (ROSE I). Results from large eddy simulations of scalar transport in the clear convective boundary layer are used to infer fluxes from the balloon profiles. Profiles from the Amazon give a mean daytime emission of 3630 +/- 1400 micrograms isoprene sq m/h, where the uncertainty represents the standard deviation of the mean of eight flux estimates. Twenty profiles from Alabama give emissions of 4470 +/- 3300 micrograms isoprene sq m/h, 1740 +/- 1060 micrograms alpha-pinene sq m/h, and 790 +/- 560 micrograms beta-pinene sq m/h, respectively. These results are in agreement with emissions derived from chemical budgets. The emissions may be overestimated because of uncertainty about how to incorporate the effects of the canopy on the mixed-layer gradients. The large variability in these emission estimates is probably due to the relatively short sampling times of the balloon profiles, though spatially heterogeneous emissions may also play a role. Fluxes derived using this technique are representative of an upwind footprint of several kilometers and are independent of hydrocarbon oxidation rate and mean advection.

Davis, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

KRESKA: A compression system for small and very large images

An effective lossless compression system for grayscale images is presented using finite context variable order Markov models. A new method to accurately estimate the probability of the escape symbol is proposed. The choice of the best model order and rules for selecting context pixels are discussed. Two context precision and two symbol precision techniques to handle noisy image data with Markov models are introduced. Results indicate that finite context variable order Markov models lead to effective lossless compression systems for small and very large images. The system achieves higher compression ratios than some of the better known image compression techniques such as lossless JPEG, JBIG, or FELICS.

Ohnesorge, Krystyna W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

The general goal of this project is to establish design protocols that enable the engineer to analyze and predict certain types of behavior in ceramic composites. Sections of the final report addresses the following: Description of the Problem that Motivated the Technology Development, Description of the New Technology that was Developed, Unique and Novel Features of the Technology and Results/Benefits of Application (year by year accomplishments), and Utilization of New Technology in Non-Aerospace Applications. Activities for this reporting period included the development of a design analysis as part of a cooperative agreement with general Electric Aircraft Engines. The effort focused on modifying the Toughened Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (TCARES) algorithm for use in the design of engine components fabricated from NiAl. Other activities related to the development of an ASTM standard practice for estimating Weibull parameters. The standard focuses on the evaluation and reporting of uniaxial strength data, and the estimation of probability distribution parameters for ceramics which fail in a brittle fashion.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1998

On Estimating Provenances of Lunar Highland Materials

That even relatively small impacts can spread material across the face of the Moon is evident from the rays of Tycho. Tycho ejecta triggered the landslide that produced the light mantle deposit at Apollo 17 and perhaps excavated the Central Valley craters there. Basin-sized impacts appear to follow the same scaling laws as smaller impacts, as indicated by the satisfaction of a geophysical model. These giant impacts rearranged huge amounts of premare material, complicating the determination of provenance of materials collected from the highlands. We have developed a model to estimate the probability that material at a particular location might derive from a given basin or large crater. This model is based on crater scaling laws, and effects of secondary cratering. Because it accounts for the volume of primary ejecta from the basin-forming transient craters and the excavating and mixing effects of these ejecta with the substrate onto which they fall, it gives much thicker deposits than an early work. Our modeling takes into account the distribution of sizes of primary ejecta fragments (PriFrags) to obtain the probability at a given site for a deposit of a particular thickness and with a fraction of PriFrags.

Haskin, Larry A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Impact Threat and Public Perception

Recent popular movies have raised public consciousness of the very real possibility of a comet or asteroid collision with the Earth, and a news report last year implying that asteroid 1997 XF11 had a distinct chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2028 further caught the public's eye. The report of possible impact was withdrawn the very next day, and the public perceived either that astronomers had made mistaken calculations, or that the pre-discovery observations found that day had been responsible for the revised prediction. But in fact, the original report of the possibility of impact in 2028 was simply a premature assessment. The XF11 affair has demonstrated the need for clarity and precision in public communications dealing with the possibility of Earth impact, as well as the importance of peer review before results are released to the press. This year, another potentially hazardous asteroid, 1999 AN10, has made the news, and this time there is indeed a remote chance of collision. Although impact is not possible during the asteroid's primary close approach in 2027, the uncertainties allow for a remarkably close passage, and embedded within the encounter's uncertainty region are many narrow "keyholes" which could bring the asteroid back for a close approach in a later year. Three keyholes have been identified which could perturb the asteroid onto trajectories that collide with the Earth in the years 2044, 2046, or 2039. At the time of this writing, the estimated impact probability for 1999 AN10 is on the order of 1 in 500,000, larger than for any other known object, but still significantly less than the probability of an undiscovered asteroid of equivalent size striking the Earth before 2044. Additional astrometric measurements of 1999 AN10 will likely drive its impact probability down to near-zero, but this may not happen for years, testing the public's reaction to a lingering remote possibility of impact. A side effect of the increasing discovery rate for Near Earth objects will be a growing number of cases like 1999 ANIO.

Chodas, Paul W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia↗

NASA NTRS2004

Plan-graph Based Heuristics for Conformant Probabilistic Planning

In this paper, we introduce plan-graph based heuristics to solve a variation of the conformant probabilistic planning (CPP) problem. In many real-world problems, it is the case that the sensors are unreliable or take too many resources to provide knowledge about the environment. These domains are better modeled as conformant planning problems. POMDP based techniques are currently the most successful approach for solving CPP but have the limitation of state- space explosion. Recent advances in deterministic and conformant planning have shown that plan-graphs can be used to enhance the performance significantly. We show that this enhancement can also be translated to CPP. We describe our process for developing the plan-graph heuristics and estimating the probability of a partial plan. We compare the performance of our planner PVHPOP when used with different heuristics. We also perform a comparison with a POMDP solver to show over a order of magnitude improvement in performance.

Ramakrishnan, Salesh↗

NASA NTRS2001

Spatial scale of motion segmentation from speed cues

For the accurate perception of multiple, potentially overlapping, surfaces or objects, the visual system must distinguish different local motion vectors and selectively integrate similar motion vectors over space to segment the retinal image properly. We recently showed that large differences in speed are required to yield a percept of motion transparency. In the present study, to investigate the spatial scale of motion segmentation from speed cues alone, we measured the speed-segmentation threshold (the minimum speed difference required for 75% performance accuracy) for 'corrugated' random-dot patterns, i.e. patterns in which dots with two different speeds were alternately placed in adjacent bars of variable width. In a first experiment, we found that, at large bar widths, a smaller speed difference was required to segment and perceive the corrugated pattern of moving dots, while at small bar-widths, a larger speed difference was required to segment the two speeds and perceive two transparent surfaces of moving dots. Both the perceptual and segmentation performance transitions occurred at a bar width of around 0.4 degrees. In a second experiment, speed-segmentation thresholds were found to increase sharply when dots with different speeds were paired within a local pooling area. The critical pairing distance was about 0.2 degrees in the fovea and increased linearly with stimulus eccentricity. However, across the range of eccentricities tested (up to 15 degrees ), the critical pairing distance did not change much and remained close to the receptive field size of neurons within the primate primary visual cortex. In a third experiment, increasing dot density changed the relationship between speed-segmentation thresholds and bar width. Thresholds decreased for large bar widths, but increased for small bar widths. All of these results are well fit by a simple stochastic model, which estimates the probabilities of having identical or different motion vectors within a local pooling area whose size is the same as that of primate V1 neurons. Altogether, these results demonstrate that speed-based segmentation can function well, even at small spatial scales (i.e. high-spatial frequencies of spatial corrugation) and thereby emphasizes the critical role of a local pooling process early in the cortical motion-processing pathway.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS1999

Observation and Simulations of the Backsplash Effects in High-Energy Gamma-Ray Telescopes Containing a Massive Calorimeter

Beam test and simulation results are presented for a study of the backsplash effects produced in a high-energy gamma-ray detector containing a massive calorimeter. An empirical formula is developed to estimate the probability (per unit area) of backsplash for different calorimeter materials and thicknesses, different incident particle energies, and at different distances from the calorimeter. The results obtained are applied to the design of Anti-Coincidence Detector (ACD) for the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST).

Moiseev, Alexander A.↗