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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Control, Fault Management, and Grid Support Functionality of an MV AC-DC Solid State Transformer based EV Extreme Fast Charging Station

Electric vehicles (EVs) have become increasingly popular in recent times while revolutionizing the consumer and commercial transportation market. The development of charging infrastructure has become one of the priorities for increasing the adoption of EVs. Extreme fast charging (XFC) technology can reduce the so-called ’range anxiety’ of consumers as they significantly reduce the charging time. With the advent of wide band-gap (WBG) power devices and improvement in power electronic converters, medium voltage (MV) solid state transformer (SST) based XFC system has the potential to replace the traditional XFC stations because of the lower footprint, ease of installation, enhanced control feature, and better system efficiency. The control system design is one of the critical aspects of the SST development process. Careful consideration and detailed analysis are required to find out suitable control method for the SST based on its topology among different centralized and decentralized control architectures. Also, the control parameters selection and potential improvement to the transient response of the controller ought to be investigated. Another major concern of the SST is different types of internal fault which reduces the overall reliability of the XFC system. As a result, designing a robust protection system is essential. Among different fault modes, open circuit switch faults have received significant attention as an active research area because of their likelihood and severe effects on converters. Therefore, the power stages used in the XFC system require functional and accurate open circuit switch fault management methods. An equally significant aspect of this SST based XFC is its compatibility in a microgrid where there is no synchronous generator present. When the grid is not available, the XFC SSTs can provide grid forming capability and continue supplying the critical loads in islanded mode. The transition between grid connected and islanded mode, especially the grid resynchronization process has to be carefully performed for the safety of the microgrid components. The challenges posed by the aforementioned issues have inspired the work done in this dissertation. Here, a 13.2 kV, 1 MVA, AC/DC SST for the XFC system is examined and a comparative analysis is conducted to select the control architecture based on feasibility of implementation and performance. A detailed control parameter design process is demonstrated considering the sensor dynamics and delay. The selected decentralized control method is augmented by introducing a novel sensor-less load current feedforward method to provide better voltage regulation at the DC bus during a change of load. Next, in the fault management section, a hierarchical failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) is proposed to enable a systematic design of the internal fault protection of the XFC SST as there are limited examples in the literature regarding the analysis of the safety and design of the protection of a power electronic converter system. Novel open circuit switch fault management methods for the converters in the system are presented. Finally, XFC SST based MV microgrid operations in grid connected mode and islanded mode are explored. A secondary control method for grid resynchronization is presented and a design process of control parameters is shown to ensure the stability of the secondary voltage and frequency regulation.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially Enhanced Electrostatic Doping in Graphene Realized via Heterointerfacial Precipitated Metals

Forming heavily-doped regions in 2D materials, like graphene, is a steppingstone to the design of emergent devices and heterostructures. Here, a selective-area approach is presented to tune the work-function and carrier density in monolayer graphene by spatially synthesizing sub-monolayer gallium beneath the 2D-solid. The localized metallic gallium is formed via precipitation from an underlying diamond-like carbon (DLC) film that is spatially implanted with gallium-ions. By controlling the interfacial precipitation process with annealing temperature, spatially precise ambipolar tuning of the graphene work-function is achieved, and the tunning effect preserved upon cooling to ambient conditions. Consequently, charge carrier densities from ≈1.8 × 10 10 cm -2 (hole-doped) to ≈7 × 10 13 cm -2 (electron-doped) are realized, confirmed by in situ and ex situ measurements. The theoretical studies corroborated the role of gallium at the heterointerface on charge transfer and electrostatic doping of the graphene overlayer. Specifically, sub-monolayer gallium facilitates heavy n-doping in graphene. Extending this doping strategy to other implantable elements in DLC provides a new means of exploring the physics and chemistry of highly-doped 2D materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Permeate fluxes from desalination of brines and produced waters: A reactive transport modeling study

The increasing interest in the use of membrane systems to desalinate inland brackish water, agricultural drainage, and industrially produced wastewater demands improved means of predicting desalination system performance under variable feedwater compositions. The interaction among water flow, solute transport, and chemical composition in these systems impacts permeate flux evolution. Here, an established multicomponent reactive transport simulator that accounts for these coupled processes is applied to compute osmotic pressure and permeate fluxes in reverse osmosis (RO) systems. The model is first validated by predicting permeate fluxes for a set of benchtop crossflow experiments subject to a range of feed flow rates and compositions, under fouling and non-fouling conditions. Results compare favorably with measured data that show that solutions with similar total dissolved solids concentrations but different compositions result in different permeate fluxes. The model is then applied to predict permeate fluxes from the desalination of produced waters using a commercial spiral wound RO module. For NaCl-dominant brines, at total dissolved salt concentrations (TDS) below about 70 g/L, permeate fluxes are inversely proportional to water mole fraction as the latter is a reasonable approximation of water activity (i.e. ideal mixing). In the case of Ca–Cl-, Na–CO3- and Na–SO4-dominant brines below about 70 g/L TDS, this relationship does not hold as well and tends to overpredict osmotic pressure and thus underpredict permeate fluxes. However, the opposite becomes true at higher TDS values for typical produced waters. The scaling potential of these waters is also computed by allowing the precipitation of minerals above their saturation limit on the RO membrane. This work demonstrates how reactive transport models developed for the analysis of waters from geological systems can be extended to improve process design, optimization, and control in desalination systems from produced waters and beyond.

Molins, Sergi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning modeling and model predictive control of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) offers a flexible and energy-efficient alternative to conventional reverse osmosis by operating in a semi-batch mode that recycles brine, enabling higher recovery rates and reduced specific energy consumption (SEC). However, developing accurate, system-level dynamic models for CCRO remains challenging due to its nonlinear, multi-phase operation and sensitivity to variable feed water conditions. Traditional modeling approaches, such as NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs), often struggle to generalize across varying inlet feed concentrations, necessitating frequent parameter re-estimation and limiting their utility for real-time control applications. To address these limitations, we developed a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model trained on an extensive experimental data set from a CCRO pilot plant. The model accepts three inputs, feed flow rate, recirculation flow rate, and initial feed conductivity, and predicts three key outputs: reject conductivity, feed pump power draw, and recirculation pump power draw. We validated the LSTM model against experimental data, demonstrating its ability to distinguish between different feed conductivities and adapt to variable flow rates. Subsequently, we incorporated the LSTM model within a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) scheme and conducted closed-loop simulations to optimize the integrated SEC (iSEC). In conclusion, the results project up to a 6% reduction in iSEC by using MPC to optimize performance over the entire experiment duration, without requiring any random excitation for data collection or parameter re-estimation.

Desalination↗
DOE OSTI2025

In situ high-temperature Raman spectroscopy for online EAF slag analysis

Real-time monitoring of slag chemistry is critical for optimizing Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking operations, where dynamic variations in slag composition directly influence slag foaming, refractory degradation, and thermal efficiency. Conventional techniques such as X-ray fluorescence (XRF), Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) are commonly used to analyze slag composition, but their offline nature and equipment constraints limit their applicability for online monitoring in harsh industrial environments. To address this challenge, we present an in situ, high-temperature analytical approach that integrates Raman spectroscopy with a custom designed fiber-optic probe for real-time slag characterization at 1550 °C. The system enables non destructive spectral acquisition from molten slags, providing molecular-level insights into silicate polymerization and iron oxidation states. Eight synthetic slag samples were evaluated, and key Raman features—such as Q n silicate units and FeO₄/FeO₆ coordination environments—were identified and quantitatively correlated with slag basicity and Fe₂O₃ content. The results demonstrate agreement between Raman spectral ratios and bulk slag chemistry, validating the method’s capability to track compositional and structural changes under molten temperature. This work establishes the feasibility of deploying fiber-optic Raman probe for online EAF slag monitoring and highlights their potential to support closed-loop control strategies, thereby enhancing process stability, refractory protection, and steel quality in industrial steelmaking applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Shifting Defect Self-Regulation via Disordered Vacancies in Hollow Tin Perovskites

Tin(II)-based hybrid halide perovskites typically suffer from severe self-doping behavior as a result of facile oxidation of Sn(II) to Sn(IV), leading to high carrier densities (holes) and metallic-like conductivities that limit their applications. In this contribution, we describe how substituting the large ethylenediammonium cation for methylammonium in the intentionally defective “hollow” perovskite family, MA 1−x en x Sn 1−0.7x I 3−0.4x (MA = methylammonium, en = ethylenediammonium), where 0 ≤ x ≤ 0.38, effectively minimizes the intrinsic self-doping behavior. The use of a solvent-free, mechanochemical synthesis route further circumvents oxidative side reactions typical in solution processing, enabling more precise control and understanding of both composition and defect chemistry. Dark and time-resolved microwave conductivity measurements of these materials as a function of “x” reveal two regimes of conductivity suppression: at low x incorporation (x ≤ 0.15), the carrier density decreases by an order of magnitude via defect-mediated charge compensation, while higher substitution (0.15 < x ≤ 0.38) greatly reduces the carrier mobility. At these lower substitution levels, the observations suggest that intrinsic equilibrium tin vacancies are compensated instead by ionic defects in lieu of mobile holes. For the higher substitution levels, the less mobile carriers exhibit long recombination lifetimes, consistent with polaron-mediated transport. These findings establish a strategy for relatively low iodine chemical potential synthesis and defect-driven control of the carrier concentration in tin halide perovskites, advancing the rational discovery of dopable hybrid semiconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Vibrational Spin-Orbit Coupling Contributions to Excited State Decay of Ligand-to-Ligand Charge Transfer States

Controlling excited state relaxation processes is important in a variety of photochemical and photophysical processes, including the generation of ground and excited state spin polarization for quantum information science applications. Here, we address how specific static distortions – based on vibrational spin-orbit active modes at C2v symmetry determined by group theory – in a series of low-symmetry ligand-to-ligand charge transfer complexes enable direct spin-orbit coupling contributions to T1 → S0 excited state decay. These results are used to address spin-vibronic coupling contributions to T1 → S0 decay in a high-symmetry (tBu2bpy)Pt(S,S) (tBu2bpy = 4,4’-di-tert-butyl-2,2’-bipyridine and S,S = benzene-1,2-dithiolate) ligand-to-ligand charge transfer complex with effective C2v symmetry, where T1 relaxation is both spin- and orbitally forbidden due to the direct spin-orbit coupling matrix element being zero by symmetry. Low-frequency vibrations that involve a pyridine-pyridine twisting motion within the bpy ligand generate large ∂/∂Qi values that will contribute significantly to T1 → S0 relaxation. The work advances ligand design strategies for the generation of tailored T1 → S0 relaxation rates, which can be utilized to optimize the generation of electron spin polarization in radical-elaborated ligand-to-ligand charge transfer complexes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modulating Hole Transfer from CdSe Quantum Dots by Manipulating the Surface Ligand Density

The structure and density of surface capping ligands in cadmium chalcogenide quantum dots (QDs) are important considerations for controlling the efficiency of charge separation via the transfer of electrons or holes to molecular acceptors. Here we show how the manipulation of the surface ligand density of oleic acid-capped cadmium selenide (CdSe) QDs impacts the efficiency of hole transfer (HT) to polyoxovanadate alkoxides. Meerwein’s salt is used as a ligand-stripping agent, providing opportunities to quantitatively manipulate the ligand density at the surface of the nanocrystal, as evidenced by 1 H NMR spectroscopy. Time-resolved photoluminescence and transient absorption spectroscopies reveal that the extent of HT is quantitatively related to increased surface accessibility. Collectively, these results show that the reduction of surface ligand density can be used to tune the extent of interactions of molecular acceptors with QDs, providing a route to control charge-transfer processes relevant to improving the efficiency of QDs as photosensitizers.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Insights into the Surface Electronic Structure and Catalytic Activity of InO x /Au(111) Inverse Catalysts for CO 2 Hydrogenation to Methanol

In this article, the direct conversion of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into methanol (CH 3 OH) via low-temperature hydrogenation is crucial for recycling anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and producing fuels or high value chemicals. Nevertheless, it continues to be a great challenge due to the trade-off between selectivity and catalytic activity. For CO 2 hydrogenation, In 2 O 3 catalysts are known for their high CH 3 OH selectivity. Subsequent studies explored depositing metals on In 2 O 3 to enhance CO 2 conversion. Despite extensive research on metal (M) supported In 2 O 3 catalysts, the role of In-M alloys and M/In 2 O 3 interfaces in CO 2 activation and CH 3 OH selectivity remains unclear. In this work, we have examined the behavior of In/Au(111) alloys and InO x /Au(111) inverse systems during CO 2 hydrogenation using synchrotron-based ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (AP-XPS) and catalytic tests in a batch reactor. Indium forms alloys with Au(111) after deposition. The In-Au(111) alloys display high reactivity towards CO 2 and can dissociate the molecule at room temperature to generate InO x nanostructures. At very low coverages of In (≤ 0.05 ML), the InO x nanostructures are not stable under CO 2 hydrogenation conditions and the active In-Au(111) alloys produces mainly CO and little methanol. An increase in indium coverage to 0.3 ML led to stable InOx nanostructures under CO 2 hydrogenation conditions. These InO x /Au(111) catalysts displayed a high selectivity (~ 80 %) towards CH 3 OH production and an activity for CO 2 conversion that was at least 10 times larger than that of plain In 2 O 3 or Cu(111) and Cu/ZnO(000$\overline{1)}$ benchmark catalysts. The results of AP-XPS show that InO x /Au(111) produces methanol via methoxy intermediates. Inverse oxide/metal catalysts containing InOx open up a possibility for improving CO 2 → CH 3 OH conversion in processes associated with the control of environmental pollution and the production of high value chemicals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative Dissection of Agrobacterium Virulence to Generate a Synthetic Ti Plasmid

Agrobacterium is not only a costly plant pathogen but is also an essential tool for plant transformation. Though Agrobacterium-mediated transformation (AMT) has been heavily studied, its polygenic nature and complex transcriptional regulation make identification of the genetic basis of transformational efficiency difficult through traditional genetic and bioinformatic approaches. Here, we use a bottom-up synthetic approach to systematically engineer the tumor-inducing plasmid (pTi), wherein the majority of virulence machinery is encoded. Using a validated toolkit to control Agrobacterium gene expression in planta, we perform a quantitative dissection of AMT to investigate the contributions of critical vir-genes at different expression levels. We construct a synthetic pTi capable of transient plant and stable fungal transformation and characterize bottlenecks and solutions for complex polygenic synthetic pTi designs. Our reductionist approach demonstrates how bottom-up engineering can be used to dissect and elucidate the genetic underpinnings of complex biological traits, laying the foundation for future engineering to establish full synthetic control over the critical process of AMT.

Agrobacterium-mediated transformation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Plant‐Induced Changes Mediate Belowground Carbon Cycling in an Experimentally Warmed Peatland

Warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 profoundly impact peatland ecosystems, particularly through changes in plant species composition. Plants regulate the initial input of organic compounds to peatland belowground systems, controlling the availability of electron donors and electron acceptors that fuel microbially mediated organic matter decomposition to CO 2 and CH 4 . However, explicit links between porewater CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics and plant-derived chemical compounds remain relatively undefined. In a whole ecosystem warming experiment, we investigated how warming affects plant leaf chemical composition and species assemblages, and how the alteration of leaf-derived organic compounds supplied to the subsurface impacts belowground CO 2 and CH 4 production. While earlier studies at our site found no temperature-dependent changes in CH 4 production pathways, our extended timeseries has revealed increased acetoclastic methanogenesis at higher temperatures in certain peat depths, correlated with elevated porewater phenolics. These changes appear driven by the observed increased plant productivity and altered vegetation inputs, which accelerate decomposition and fuel CH 4 production through enhanced substrate availability. In conclusion, we observed warming-induced changes in molecular composition both between and within plant species, suggesting that plant-mediated controls on belowground carbon processing are more complex than previously recognized.

Wilson, Rachel M. [Florida State Univ., Tallahasse↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crystallographic Texture, Structure, and Stress Transmission in Nugget Sandstone Examined With X‐Ray Tomography and Diffraction Microscopy

Subsurface processes in sandstones are controlled by porosity, permeability, and deformation mechanisms, all of which are controlled by a complex interplay of crystallographic rock texture, structure, and micromechanics. Texture, structure, and micromechanics have historically been studied using optical and electron microscopy of thin-sections. Here, we employed a new combination of in situ X-ray tomography and ray diffraction microscopy to study crystallographic texture, structure, and grain stresses in 3D. We examined these features in a sample of Nugget sandstone, a sandstone constituting hydrocarbon reservoirs across the American West. Our aims are threefold. First, we demonstrate the utility of X-ray diffraction microscopy probes for revealing texture, structure, and stress transmission in 3D. Second, we apply these techniques to Nugget sandstone and discuss findings in the context of prior work. Third, we study grain stress tensor evolution during mechanical compression to examine whether their heterogeneity and orientation evolution reflect that of inter-particle forces in granular materials. Our results show: (a) larger grains featured higher intra-granular misorientations, possibly from an increased prevalence of cements; (b) pores closed parallel to the loading direction and opened normal to loading; (c) grain stresses featured heterogeneity and orientations similar to inter-particle forces in non-cohesive granular materials; (d) grains featured compressive stresses in the loading direction and tensile stresses orthogonal to the loading direction, the latter resisting sample dilation and grain separation. Our work demonstrates the first known application of multi-modal X-ray tomography and diffraction microscopy to sandstone, providing new 3D insight into the nature of quartz cement and stress evolution.

high energy diffraction microscopy↗
DOE OSTI2026

N 2 Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer supports global food production, but its use and overuse drive emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas. Understanding the drivers of N 2 O fluxes remains elusive, making it difficult to predict emissions in time and space and to develop and evaluate ways to lower emissions through management. Major scientific uncertainties underlying the understanding of the drivers of N 2 O fluxes identified in a workshop of N 2 O emissions experts include poor process-based understanding of controls on soil N 2 O emissions in the field; insufficient data to reduce uncertainty in N 2 O budgets from the field to regional scales, including N 2 O emission measurements and importantly, field-scale N balances; and high uncertainty in model predictions of soil N 2 O emissions across environmental and management conditions. To reduce these uncertainties, we present the concept of N 2 Onet, a global collaborative initiative to accelerate advances in N 2 O measurement, analyses, and mitigation. N 2 Onet will serve as an observational network of supersites with multi-scale measurements; a database hub for N 2 O flux and ancillary data; and a catalyst for community building, information sharing, and training. By coalescing and coordinating the global community of researchers, N 2 Onet will provide a roadmap for reducing N 2 O emissions from agriculture worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

To Derive or Not to Derive: I/O Libraries Take Charge of Derived Quantities Computation

The ever-increasing volume of data produced by HPC simulations necessitates scalable methods for data exploration and knowledge extraction. Scientific data analysis often involves complex queries across distributed datasets, requiring manipulation of multiple primary variables and generating derived data that needs to be handled efficiently, creating challenges for applications that need to parse many large datasets. Relying on individual applications to handle all intermediate data generally leads to redundant computations across studies and unnecessary data transfers. In this paper, we investigate the performance of different approaches where applications define derived variables as quantities of interest (QoIs) and offload the computation and transfer of these QoIs to the I/O library. This significantly reduces redundancy and optimizes data movement across the distributed storage and processing infrastructure by allowing control over when and where derived variables are computed. We present a detailed analysis of the performance-storage trade-offs associated with different solutions and showcase results for our study on two large-scale datasets created from climate and combustion simulations.

Gainaru, Ana↗
DOE OSTI2025

End-to-End Workflow for Machine-Learning-Based Qubit Readout With QICK and hls4ml

In this article, we present an end-to-end workflow for superconducting qubit readout that embeds codesigned neural networks into the quantum instrumentation control kit (QICK). Capitalizing on the custom firmware and software of the QICK platform, which is built on Xilinx radiofrequency system-on-chip field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), we aim to leverage machine learning (ML) to address critical challenges in qubit readout accuracy and scalability. The workflow utilizes the hls4ml package and employs quantization-aware training to translate ML models into hardware-efficient FPGA implementations via user-friendly Python application programming interfaces. We experimentally demonstrate the design, optimization, and integration of an ML algorithm for single transmon qubit readout, achieving 96% single-shot fidelity with a latency of 32.25 ns and less than 16% FPGA lookup table resource utilization. Our results offer the community an accessible workflow to advance ML-driven readout and adaptive control in quantum information processing applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire smoke impacts lake ecosystems

Abstract Wildfire activity is increasing globally. The resulting smoke plumes can travel hundreds to thousands of kilometers, reflecting or scattering sunlight and depositing particles within ecosystems. Several key physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes are controlled by factors affected by smoke. The spatial and temporal scales of lake exposure to smoke are extensive and under‐recognized. We introduce the concept of the lake smoke‐day, or the number of days any given lake is exposed to smoke in any given fire season, and quantify the total lake smoke‐day exposure in North America from 2019 to 2021. Because smoke can be transported at continental to intercontinental scales, even regions that may not typically experience direct burning of landscapes by wildfire are at risk of smoke exposure. We found that 99.3% of North America was covered by smoke, affecting a total of 1,333,687 lakes ≥10 ha. An incredible 98.9% of lakes experienced at least 10 smoke‐days a year, with 89.6% of lakes receiving over 30 lake smoke‐days, and lakes in some regions experiencing up to 4 months of cumulative smoke‐days. Herein we review the mechanisms through which smoke and ash can affect lakes by altering the amount and spectral composition of incoming solar radiation and depositing carbon, nutrients, or toxic compounds that could alter chemical conditions and impact biota. We develop a conceptual framework that synthesizes known and theoretical impacts of smoke on lakes to guide future research. Finally, we identify emerging research priorities that can help us better understand how lakes will be affected by smoke as wildfire activity increases due to climate change and other anthropogenic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cumulonimbus Clouds Convert a Smaller Fraction of CAPE into Kinetic Energy in a Warmer Atmosphere

Abstract This study investigates how entrainment’s diluting effect on cumulonimbus updraft buoyancy is affected by the temperature of the troposphere, which is expected to increase by the end of the century. A parcel model framework is constructed that allows for independent variations in the temperature ( T ), the entrainment rate ε , the free-tropospheric relative humidity (RH), and the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Using this framework, dilution of buoyancy is evaluated with T and RH independently varied and with CAPE either held constant or increased with temperature. When CAPE is held constant, buoyancy decreases as T increases, with parcels in warmer environments realizing substantially smaller fractions of their CAPE as kinetic energy (KE). This occurs because the increased moisture difference between an updraft and its surroundings at warmer temperatures drives greater updraft dilution. Similar results are found in midlatitude and tropical conditions when CAPE is increased with temperature. With the expected 6%–7% increase in CAPE per kelvin of warming, KE only increases at 2%–4% K −1 in narrow updrafts but tracks more closely with CAPE at 4%–6% in wider updrafts. Interestingly, the rate of increase in the KE with T becomes larger than that of CAPE when the later quantity increases at more than 10% K −1 . These findings emphasize the importance of considering entrainment in studies of moist convection’s response to climate change, as the entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy may partially counteract the influence of increases in CAPE on updraft intensity. Significance Statement Cumulonimbus clouds mix air with their surrounding environment through a process called entrainment, which controls how efficiently environmental energy is converted into upward speed in thunderstorm updrafts. Our research shows that warmer temperatures will exacerbate the moisture difference between cumulonimbus updrafts and their surroundings, leading to greater mixing and less efficient conversion of environmental energy into updraft speeds. This effect should be considered in future research that investigates how climate change will affect cumulonimbus clouds.

Peters, John M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States

Abstract Downscaled precipitation projections were created using the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model over the western United States to increase the physical realism in orographic precipitation changes. End-of-century simulations from eight models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were downscaled with ICAR and compared to the widely utilized statistically downscaled dataset, localized constructed analogs (LOCAs), to understand where and why projections of cool-season (September–May) precipitation differed. ICAR and LOCA precipitation projections were similar, but their sign differed in hydrologically relevant regions likely due to ICAR’s simulation of microphysics and mesoscale dynamics with high-resolution topography (6 km). In the Pacific Northwest, cool-season precipitation projections from ICAR showed an increase on the windward side of the Cascades and no significant change within the lee. This difference between the windward and leeward side was attributed to reduced zonal wind speeds, allowing more time for microphysical processes within ICAR. This contrast is enhanced by rain’s faster fall speed compared to snow, limiting transport into the lee. Meanwhile, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation across the Cascades. In the Upper Colorado River basin, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation in high elevation regions (>3000 m), but ICAR projected no significant change or a decrease in precipitation. High elevation differences were most evident in the spring and fall and were also attributed to a snow-to-rain transition and dynamical processes that impacted orographic enhancement within ICAR. Idealized, controlled studies are needed to better isolate individual processes, but these results underscore the importance of including microphysics and mesoscale dynamics within regional-scale precipitation projections. Significance Statement A set of global climate model simulations was downscaled using an atmospheric model that contains key physical equations, referred to as Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR). ICAR was used to examine projected changes in end-of-century cool-season precipitation over mountains in the western United States. Precipitation projections from ICAR were similar to projections that used statistical relationships to downscale climate projections. However, projections differed between ICAR and statistically downscaled datasets in whether they increased, decreased, or stayed the same in specific, hydrologically relevant regions such as the eastern Cascades and high elevation areas of the Upper Colorado River basin. These differences were attributed to the simulation of physical processes in ICAR. The results highlight the importance of kilometer-scale atmospheric processes in regional climate projections.

Currier, William Ryan [NOAA/Physical Sciences Labo↗