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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting the single-site and multi-site event discrimination power of dual-phase time projection chambers

Dual-phase xenon time projection chambers (TPCs) are widely used in searches for rare dark matter and neutrino interactions, in part because of their excellent position reconstruction capability in 3D. Despite their millimeter-scale resolution along the charge drift axis, xenon TPCs face challenges in resolving single-site (SS) and multi-site (MS) interactions in the transverse plane. In this paper, we build a generic TPC model with an idealized signal readout, and use Fisher Information (FI) to predict its theoretical capability of differentiating SS and MS events using the electroluminescence signal. We also demonstrate via simulation that, when only statistical photon noise is present, the theoretical limits can be approached with conventional reconstruction algorithms like maximum likelihood estimation, and with a convolutional neural network classifier. The implications of this study on future TPC experiments will be discussed.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrochemo-mechanics unlocks hidden dynamics of lithium plating under stacking pressure

Understanding and mitigating lithium plating remains one of the most pressing challenges in advancing the safety and longevity of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Here, we present a novel integrative framework that combines in-operando swelling force measurements with a physics-based electro-chemo-mechanical model to uncover previously inaccessible insights into lithium plating dynamics under mechanical constraints. Unlike existing approaches that focus primarily on electrochemical signatures, our approach captures the coupled mechanical responses of commercial pouch cells during cycling, revealing how mechanical constraints fundamentally alter degradation pathways. We demonstrate that the use of a moderate stacking pressure suppresses lithium plating and enhances lithium stripping. This mechanically driven structural effect, coupled with the electrochemical process, significantly extends the linear aging regime in LIBs. Intriguingly, intermittent capacity recovery events that were observed during the battery cycling suggest dynamic lithium reactivation, a phenomenon rarely captured in real-time. This study pioneers a stress-aware methodology for diagnosing and managing lithium plating, establishing a new paradigm for real-time battery health monitoring. The findings offer transformative implications for the design of durable, high-performance LIB systems, opening new avenues for intelligent control strategies in battery management systems.

Bhowmick, Amit↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on Populations of Neutrino Sources from Searches in the Directions of IceCube Neutrino Alerts

Beginning in 2016, the IceCube Neutrino Observatory has sent out alerts in real time containing the information of high-energy ($E$ ≳ 100 TeV) neutrino candidate events with moderate to high (≳30%) probability of astrophysical origin. In this work, we use a recent catalog of such alert events, which, in addition to events announced in real time, includes events that were identified retroactively and covers the time period of 2011–2020. We also search for additional, lower-energy neutrinos from the arrival directions of these IceCube alerts. We show how performing such an analysis can constrain the contribution of rare populations of cosmic neutrino sources to the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux. After searching for neutrino emission coincident with these alert events on various timescales, we find no significant evidence of either minute-scale or day-scale transient neutrino emission or of steady neutrino emission in the direction of these alert events. This study also shows how numerous a population of neutrino sources has to be to account for the complete astrophysical neutrino flux. Assuming that sources have the same luminosity, an $E$ -2.5 neutrino spectrum, and number densities that follow star formation rates, the population of sources has to be more numerous than 7 × 10 -9 Mpc -3 . This number changes to 3 × 10 -7 Mpc -3 if number densities instead have no cosmic evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Single phonon detection for dark matter via quantum evaporation and sensing of He 3

Dark matter is five times more abundant than ordinary visible matter in our Universe. While laboratory searches hunting for dark matter have traditionally focused on the electroweak scale, theories of low mass hidden sectors motivate new detection techniques. Extending these searches to lower mass ranges, well below 1 GeV / c 2 , poses new challenges as rare interactions with standard model matter transfer progressively less energy to electrons and nuclei in detectors. Here, we propose an approach based on phonon-assisted quantum evaporation combined with quantum sensors for detection of desorption events via tracking of spin coherence. The intent of our proposed dark matter sensors is to extend the parameter space to energy transfers in rare interactions to as low as a few meV for detection of dark matter particles in the keV / c 2 mass range. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extreme events, energy security and equality through micro- and macro-levels: Concepts, challenges and methods

Low-income households face long-standing challenges of energy insecurity and inequality (EII). During extreme events (e.g., disasters and pandemics) these challenges are especially severe for vulnerable populations reliant on energy for health, education, and well-being. However, many EII studies rarely incorporate the micro- and macro-perspectives of resilience and reliability of energy and internet infrastructure and social-psychological factors. To remedy this gap, we first address the impacts of extreme events on EII among vulnerable populations. Second, we evaluate the driving factors of EII and how they change during disasters. Third, we situate these inequalities within broader energy systems and pinpoint the importance of equitable infrastructure systems by examining infrastructure reliability and resilience and the role of renewable technologies. Then, we consider the factors influencing energy consumption, such as energy practices, socio-psychological factors, and internet access. Finally, we propose interdisciplinary research methods to study these issues during extreme events and provide recommendations.

Chen, CF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Memory-triggered supernova neutrino detection

Here, we demonstrate that observations of the gravitational memory from core collapse supernovae at future deci-Hz interferometers enable time-triggered searches of supernova neutrinos at Mt-scale detectors. Achieving a sensitivity to characteristic strains of at least $\sim 10^{–25}$ at $f ≃ 0.3$ $\mathrm{Hz}$ —e.g., by improving the noise of DECIGO by one order of magnitude—will allow robust time triggers for supernovae at distances $D \sim 40–300$ $\mathrm{Mpc}$, resulting in a nearly background-free sample of $\sim 3–70$ neutrino events per Mt per decade of operation. This sample would bridge the sensitivity gap between rare galactic supernova bursts and the cosmological diffuse supernova neutrino background, allowing detailed studies of the neutrino emission of supernovae in the local Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gamma-Ray Bursts and Kilonovae from the Accretion-induced Collapse of White Dwarfs

Abstract We present the first seconds-long 2D general relativistic neutrino magnetohydrodynamic simulations of accretion-induced collapse (AIC) in rapidly rotating, strongly magnetized white dwarfs (WDs), which might originate as remnants of double-WD mergers. This study examines extreme combinations of magnetic fields and rotation rates, motivated both by the need to address the limitations of 2D axisymmetric simulations and to explore the physics of AIC under rare conditions that, while yet to be observationally confirmed, may be consistent with current theoretical models and account for unusual events. Under these assumptions, our results demonstrate that, if realizable, such systems can generate relativistic jets and neutron-rich outflows with properties consistent with long gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs) accompanied by kilonovae, such as GRB 211211A and GRB 230307A. These findings highlight the potential role of AIC in heavy r -process element production and offer a framework for understanding rare LGRBs associated with kilonova emission. Longer-duration 3D simulations are needed to fully capture magnetic field amplification, resolve instabilities, and determine the fate of the energy retained by the magnetar at the end of the simulations.

Cheong 張, Patrick Chi-Kit 志杰 (ORCID:00000003144933↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Tensile Characterization of Thin-Sheet Brittle Metallic Materials

Refractory metals are favorable materials in applications where high strength and ductility are needed at elevated temperatures. In some cases, operating temperatures may be near the melting point of the material. However, as temperature drops, refractory metals typically undergo a significant mechanical response change - ductile-to-brittle transition. These materials may be subjected to high strain rate loading at an ambient temperature state, such as an impact or crash. Knowledge of the high rate material properties are essential for design as well as simulation of impact events. The high rate stress-strain behavior of brittle metallic materials at ambient temperature is rarely studied because of experimental challenges, particularly when failure is involved. Failure typically occurs within the non-gage section of the material, which invalidates any collected stress-strain information. Here, a method to determine a specimen geometry which will produce failures in the gage section is presented. Pure tungsten in thin-sheet form was used as a trial material to select a specimen geometry for high rate Kolsky tension bar experiments. A finite element simulation was conducted to derive a strain correction for more accurate results. The room temperature stress-strain behavior of pure tungsten at a strain rate of 24 s –1 is presented. The outcome of this experimental technique can be applied to other brittle materials for dynamic tensile characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ionization Yield in Silicon for eV-Scale Electron-Recoil Processes

The development of single charge resolving, macroscopic silicon detectors has opened a window into rare processes at the O(eV) scale. In order to reconstruct the energy of a given event, or model the charge signal obtained for a given amount of energy absorbed by the electrons in a detector, an accurate charge yield model is needed. In this paper we review existing measurements of charge yield in Silicon, focusing in particular on the region below 1 keV. We highlight a calibration gap between 12-50 eV (referred to as the "UV-gap") and employ a phenomenological model of impact ionization to explore the likely charge yield in this energy regime. Finally, we explore the impact of variations in this model on a test case, that of dark matter scattering off electrons, to illustrate the scientific impact of uncertainties in charge yield.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-periodic X-ray eruptions years after a nearby tidal disruption event

Abstract Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are luminous bursts of soft X-rays from the nuclei of galaxies, repeating on timescales of hours to weeks 1–5 . The mechanism behind these rare systems is uncertain, but most theories involve accretion disks around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) undergoing instabilities 6–8 or interacting with a stellar object in a close orbit 9–11 . It has been suggested that this disk could be created when the SMBH disrupts a passing star 8,11 , implying that many QPEs should be preceded by observable tidal disruption events (TDEs). Two known QPE sources show long-term decays in quiescent luminosity consistent with TDEs 4,12 and two observed TDEs have exhibited X-ray flares consistent with individual eruptions 13,14 . TDEs and QPEs also occur preferentially in similar galaxies 15 . However, no confirmed repeating QPEs have been associated with a spectroscopically confirmed TDE or an optical TDE observed at peak brightness. Here we report the detection of nine X-ray QPEs with a mean recurrence time of approximately 48 h from AT2019qiz, a nearby and extensively studied optically selected TDE 16 . We detect and model the X-ray, ultraviolet (UV) and optical emission from the accretion disk and show that an orbiting body colliding with this disk provides a plausible explanation for the QPEs.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Giant kelp genetic monitoring before and after disturbance reveals stable genetic diversity in Southern California

Given the impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors on marine systems, there is a need to accurately predict how species respond to changing environments and disturbance regimes. The use of genetic tools to monitor temporal trends in populations gives ecologists the ability to estimate changes in genetic diversity and effective population size that may be undetectable by traditional census methods. Although multiple studies have used temporal genetic analysis, they usually involve commercially important species, and rarely sample before and after disturbance. In this study, we run a temporal analysis of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera , genetic diversity over the scope of 10 years (2008-2018) using the same microsatellite marker panel to assess the genetic consequences of disturbance in several populations of giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) in the Southern California Bight. The study is a rare pre- and post-disturbance microsatellite analysis that included declines to giant kelp caused by the 2015/16 El Nino Southern Oscillation event. We used canopy biomass estimated by remote sensing (Landsat) to quantify the extent of disturbance to kelp beds, and sea surface temperature data to understand how kelp was pushed towards its temperature limits during this period. Despite prolonged periods with decreased canopy at several sites, no changes in genetic structure and allelic richness were observed. We argue that giant kelp in the region is best described as a “patchy population” system where true extinctions are rare. We discuss how deep refugia of subsurface sporophytes and cryptic microscopic life stages could have kept genetic diversity through disturbance. Given the increasing effects of climate change and uncertainty in modeling impacts of species with cryptic life history stages, we suggest further investigation to reveal the role such stages play in species resilience. Genetic monitoring studies of sites selected by remote census demographic and climate surveys should be continued in the future given the predicted impacts of climate change.

Klingbeil, III, William H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gargantuan Hail in Argentina

On 8 February 2018, a supercell storm produced gargantuan (>15 cm or >6 inches in maximum dimension) hail as it moved over the heavily populated city of Villa Carlos Paz in Cordoba Province, Argentina, South America. Observations of gargantuan hail are quite rare, but the large population density here yielded numerous witnesses and social media pictures and videos from this event that document multiple large hailstones. The storm was also sampled by the newly installed operational polarimetric C-band radar in Cordoba. During the RELAMPAGO campaign, the authors interviewed local residents about their accounts of the storm, and uncovered additional social media video and photographs revealing extremely large hail at multiple locations in town. This article documents the case, including the meteorological conditions supporting the storm (with the aid of a high-resolution WRF simulation), the storm's observed radar signatures, and three noteworthy hailstones observed by residents. These hailstones include a freezer-preserved 4.48-inch (11.38-cm) maximum dimension stone that was scanned with a 3D infrared laser scanner, a 7.1-inch (18-cm) maximum dimension stone, and a hailstone photogrammetrically estimated to be between 7.4 and 9.3 inches (18.8-23.7-cm) in maximum dimension, which is close to or exceeds the world record for maximum dimension. Such a well-observed case is an important step forward in understanding environments and storms that produce gargantuan hail, and ultimately how to anticipate and detect such extreme events.

Kumjian, Matthew R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk Ratio and Risk Difference Estimation in Case-cohort Studies

Background: In case-cohort studies with binary outcomes, ordinary logistic regression analyses have been widely used because of their computational simplicity. However, the resultant odds ratio estimates cannot be interpreted as relative risk measures unless the event rate is low. The risk ratio and risk difference are more favorable outcome measures that are directly interpreted as effect measures without the rare disease assumption. Methods: We provide pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods for estimating risk ratios and risk differences in analyses of case-cohort studies. These multivariate regression models are fitted by weighting the inverses of sampling probabilities. Also, the precisions of the risk ratio and risk difference estimators can be improved using auxiliary variable information, specifically by adapting the calibrated or estimated weights, which are readily measured on all samples from the whole cohort. Finally, we provide computational code in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) that can easily perform these methods. Results: Through numerical analyses of artificially simulated data and the National Wilms Tumor Study data, accurate risk ratio and risk difference estimates were obtained using the pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods. Also, using the auxiliary variable information from the whole cohort, precisions of these estimators were markedly improved. Conclusion: The ordinary logistic regression analyses may provide uninterpretable effect measure estimates, and the risk ratio and risk difference estimation methods are effective alternative approaches for case-cohort studies. These methods are especially recommended under situations in which the event rate is not low.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predator mass mortality events restructure food webs through trophic decoupling

Predators have a key role in structuring ecosystems. However, predator loss is accelerating globally, and predator mass-mortality events (MMEs)—rapid large-scale die-offs—are now emblematic of the Anthropocene epoch. Owing to their rare and unpredictable nature, we lack an understanding of how MMEs immediately impact ecosystems. Past predator-removal studies may be insufficient to understand the ecological consequences of MMEs because, in nature, dead predators decompose in situ and generate a resource pulse, which could alter ensuing ecosystem dynamics by temporarily enhancing productivity. Here we experimentally induce MMEs in tritrophic, freshwater lake food webs and report ecological dynamics that are distinct from predator losses or resource pulses alone, but that can be predicted from theory. MMEs led to the proliferation of diverse consumer and producer communities resulting from weakened top-down predator control and stronger bottom-up effects through predator decomposition. In contrast to predator removals alone, enhanced primary production after MMEs dampened the consumer community response. As a consequence, MMEs generated biomass dynamics that were most similar to those of undisturbed systems, indicating that they may be cryptic disturbances in nature. These biomass dynamics led to trophic decoupling, whereby the indirect beneficial effects of predators on primary producers are lost and later materialize as direct bottom-up effects that stimulate primary production amid intensified herbivory. Furthermore, these results reveal ecological signatures of MMEs and demonstrate the feasibility of forecasting novel ecological dynamics arising with intensifying global change.

Food webs↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Short-Lived Isotope Counting System (SLICS) to measure reaction cross sections producing light, beta-decaying nuclei on OMEGA

A new activation detector optimized for short-lived isotopes was designed, installed, and tested on OMEGA. The Short-Lived Isotope Counting System (SLICS) can be positioned as close as 35 cm from the OMEGA target chamber center in a ten-inch-manipulator. Stable target samples can be mounted on the front end of the detector assembly to undergo triton-, deuteron-, or neutron-induced reactions that produce short-lived reaction products that beta decay. The emitted betas are detected in a phoswich configuration to eliminate the gamma background. The detector is optimized for isotopes with half-lives from 150 ms to 20 s, filling a gap in OMEGA’s current activation detectors for isotopes with half-lives >5 min. In a pilot study, SLICS achieved an efficiency of 24.5% ± 2.0% for counting 8Li, with a total of 505.8 ± 4.4 qualifying events. Using the existing triton laser-ion acceleration platform on OMEGA, this detector can be used to measure rarely studied tritium-induced reactions on light nuclei with an estimated uncertainty of 12%. As a result, the design of the detector and its performance during a first experiment employing deuterium as a surrogate will be discussed.

Beta spectrometry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection and Approximate Similarity Searches of Transients in Real-time Data Streams

Abstract We present Lightcurve Anomaly Identification and Similarity Search ( LAISS ), an automated pipeline to detect anomalous astrophysical transients in real-time data streams. We deploy our anomaly detection model on the nightly Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Alert Stream via the ANTARES broker, identifying a manageable ∼1–5 candidates per night for expert vetting and coordinating follow-up observations. Our method leverages statistical light-curve and contextual host galaxy features within a random forest classifier, tagging transients of rare classes ( spectroscopic anomalies), of uncommon host galaxy environments ( contextual anomalies), and of peculiar or interaction-powered phenomena ( behavioral anomalies). Moreover, we demonstrate the power of a low-latency (∼ms) approximate similarity search method to find transient analogs with similar light-curve evolution and host galaxy environments. We use analogs for data-driven discovery, characterization, (re)classification, and imputation in retrospective and real-time searches. To date, we have identified ∼50 previously known and previously missed rare transients from real-time and retrospective searches, including but not limited to superluminous supernovae (SLSNe), tidal disruption events, SNe IIn, SNe IIb, SNe I-CSM, SNe Ia-91bg-like, SNe Ib, SNe Ic, SNe Ic-BL, and M31 novae. Lastly, we report the discovery of 325 total transients, all observed between 2018 and 2021 and absent from public catalogs (∼1% of all ZTF Astronomical Transient reports to the Transient Name Server through 2021). These methods enable a systematic approach to finding the “needle in the haystack” in large-volume data streams. Because of its integration with the ANTARES broker, LAISS is built to detect exciting transients in Rubin data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗