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Third-Party Aggregation Rulemaking in MISO and SPP Footprints

The report highlights key considerations for retail regulators in the footprints of the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) or Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) in states that previously opted out of allowing third-party aggregation participation under FERC Order 719 and that may want to explore reversing the decision due to a changing policy environment under new FERC orders (i.e., 2222) and/or tightening resource adequacy constraints. Through a document review and a series of 27 interviews with regulators, aggregators, and other industry professionals, this document provides a high-level policy overview of the retail regulator’s role in a selection of processes, rules, and regulations to better understand how states have treated and/or integrated aggregators into wholesale markets. The report summarizes findings in two sections: General Findings and Specific Policy Findings. The General Findings offer high level takeaways such as the fact that 17 of the 20 states in MISO and SPP footprints opted out of third party aggregations following Order 719. Additionally, there is only one state that is fully restructured in the MISO and SPP footprints whereas the rest are vertically integrated, and the majority of third-party aggregations in the U.S. take place in restructured states outside of these footprints. Even so, third-party aggregations do take place in MISO and SPP albeit in small numbers and in an ad hoc regulatory environment. The specific policy findings delve deeper into specific examples of state actions on the topics of jurisdiction, registration and licensing, data governance, dual participation, and dispute resolution. Tables in each category organize state actions into Tiers I-III, which roughly correspond to the possible level of involvement or possible change necessary by state regulators and/or legislators to implement these actions. The tier level does not indicate any value judgement, as each state has respective regulatory limitations and each decision comes with various tradeoffs. One main tradeoff is between simplicity and quick implementation versus comprehensive and prolonged implementation. In many cases, actions in Tier I could be implemented without significant changes by relying on the use of existing processes for an aggregator context. On the other hand, many actions in Tier III are more narrowly designed to address aggregators specifically, but often require more significant changes including the involvement of additional parties through stakeholder engagement or legislative action. In some cases, these tiers are discrete. However, state regulators may also choose to progress through these various tiers sequentially as they phase in aggregators while learning from their experience. With the ability to stack bulk system level services, distributed energy resource aggregations in MISO and SPP could provide various private benefits (e.g., increased value streams to the owner) as well as societally beneficial grid services (e.g., peaking capacity, ancillary services, and other services that increase the grid’s overall operational efficiency). In deciding how to best to enable these benefits, states and retail regulators must weigh various tradeoffs if considering reversing a previous opt out.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Mechanical Loads on Spent Nuclear Fuel in the General 30 cm Package Drop Scenario

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) research program is guided by the high-level goal of closing prioritized knowledge gaps related to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage and transportation, which are summarized by Saltzstein et al. (2020). One of the high-priority knowledge gaps is the identification and quantification of mechanical loads that are expected to affect SNF during normal conditions of transportation and storage to inform the range of physical SNF test programs. This report uses modeling and analysis methods to estimate the mechanical loads on spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the general 30 cm package drop scenario. The drop scenario assumes impact limiters are in place in the transportation configuration and the impact surface is perfectly rigid. The goal of this analysis is to consider the universe of potential mechanical loading conditions that can happen to SNF and present the results in a manner that is useful for materials testing, decision making, and regulatory rule making purposes. This study uses validated finite element models and methods to perform a broad parametric study of key variables that can affect the mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical package free drop scenario. Physical drop test data from a cask and fuel assembly drop test campaign is the basis for model validation. Additionally, the results of the parametric study are used to inform a damage model, which uses multiple nonlinear regression to estimate the relationships between input variables and output response. The parametric finite element analyses consider thousands of input variable combinations, while the damage model estimates millions of combinations. The breadth of this study provides confidence that the potential range of mechanical loads that SNF might experience during the general 30 cm package drop scenario are characterized well enough to consider this knowledge gap closed. While this report documents the overall peak values calculated in this study, the 95 th percentile values, the histograms, and the observed trends are equally important. This study covered a large range of SNF temperatures, room temperature to 300°C, and burnups, 10 GWd/MTU to 62 GWd/MTU. Each temperature and burnup combination has a different cladding yield strain, so it is more meaningful to summarize the calculated cladding strain response as its factor of safety, which is defined relative to the yield strain. The factor of safety is calculated as the yield strain divided by the peak cladding strain. A factor of safety greater than unity indicates that the cladding remains below yield, whereas a value less than unity is indicative of plastic deformation. In all cases of this study a safety factor over 1.0 was calculated, although in the most limiting case at 300°C the safety factor was only 1.01, which suggests that yielding could occur when additional loads like rod internal pressure are included. When the temperature is restricted to 200°C the limiting safety factor increases to 1.28, which has significant margin to accommodate internal pressure and potential local cladding defects that could cause a local stress concentration. An important trend in the calculated fuel rod mechanical loads is that the 2 nd highest loaded fuel rod in an assembly tends to be significantly lower than the highest loaded rod. The implication is that even if one rod in an assembly experiences a failure the loads would have to be significantly higher to cause two or more rods to fail.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Research Reactor

The nuclear industry recognizes the difficulties involved in developing effective managerial and leadership skills in a highly technical and proficient workforce such as that found in nuclear facilities. Implementing an insider threat mitigation program (ITMP) within the nuclear industry is a complex and ongoing process that demands a comprehensive understanding of human behavior, an organization’s security culture, and rigorous regulatory requirements yet also accounts for facility characteristics, physical security, material flow, and activities involving nuclear material. Given the high-consequence nature of research reactor operations, even minor lapses can lead to safety, security, and reputational risks. An effective ITMP requires a defense-in-depth approach that incorporates behavioral analysis, robust vetting procedures, continuous monitoring, and cross-disciplinary coordination. It must also promote a culture of vigilance and accountability at all levels up to and including executive leadership but be flexible enough to adapt to evolving global threats and technological advances. Insider threat mitigation is not a one-time effort but rather a sustained commitment to excellence in safety and security. Establishing a culture in which personnel proactively report incidents and issues that could affect nuclear safety and security is vital to maintaining a safe and secure operational environment. This document was developed to guide senior management and research reactor organizations in creating comprehensive programs to effectively manage and mitigate insider threat behaviors and actions. It focuses on the key pillars of an effective ITMP, including the national legal framework, security culture, preventive and protective measures, cyber security, and performance evaluation. By using a systematic approach during implementation, facilities can foster environments conducive to insider threat detection and support long-term program sustainability. The document also provides strategies for improving communication across all levels of an organization, helping to eliminate barriers that hinder the development of robust ITMPs and enhance overall security culture. In today’s organizations, the concept of leveraging safety and security culture lessons to facilitate knowledge transfer is rapidly evolving to expedite insider threat management and security culture improvements. This document outlines the rationale for evaluating an ITMP based on national customs, culture, and stakeholders. The elements are all germane to reliability and trustworthiness and relate to security concerns that states may encounter. The document focuses not only on individual perceptions regarding security issues and capability building but also on team building and how to resolve concerns. The implementers of a facility’s ITMP may zero in on indicators of insider threats within their enterprise. This material will benefit organizations when it is applied using a systematic and structured approach as demonstrated throughout the document.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors and Causal Alpha Factors

This report is a revision of the original report, INL/LTD-17-43723. Distribution of the original report was to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) only, and the report was not made available to the public. The original report was revised as this report for public distribution. This report presents the latest update of generic prior distributions for common cause failure (CCF) alpha factors, as well as the development of new generic prior distributions for CCF causal alpha factors. The history of CCF treatment and parameter estimations is reviewed. The existing process for developing generic prior distributions is reviewed and used to develop new priors for CCF alpha factors and causal alpha factors. For causal alpha factors, different priors are developed for the five different CCF cause groups: Component (GC), Design (GD), Environment (GE), Human (GH), and Other (GO). These generic prior distributions could be used in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for CCF parameter estimation. The issues and preliminary thoughts regarding prior distribution development are documented. Potential future work is then proposed for improving the process of developing priors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Complex transcriptional regulations of a hyperparasitic quadripartite system in giant viruses infecting protists

Abstract Hyperparasitism is a common pattern in nature that is not limited to cellular organisms. Giant viruses infecting protists can be hyperparasitized by smaller ones named virophages. In addition, both may carry episomal DNA molecules known as transpovirons in their particles. They all share transcriptional regulatory elements that dictate the expression of their genes within viral factories built by giant viruses in the host cytoplasm. This suggests the existence of interactions between their respective transcriptional networks. Here we investigatedAcanthamoeba castellaniicells infected by a giant virus (megavirus chilensis), and coinfected with a virophage (zamilon vitis) and/or a transpoviron (megavirus vitis transpoviron). Infectious cycles were monitored through time-course RNA sequencing to decipher the transcriptional program of each partner and its impact on the gene expression of the others. We found highly diverse transcriptional responses. While the giant virus drastically reshaped the host cell transcriptome, the transpoviron had no effect on the gene expression of any of the players. In contrast, the virophage strongly modified the giant virus gene expression, albeit transiently, without altering the protein composition of mature viral particles. The virophage also induced the overexpression of transpoviron genes, likely through the indirect upregulation of giant virus-encoded transcription factors. Together, these analyses document the intricated transcriptionally regulated networks taking place in the infected cell.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Research Lasers and Air Traffic Safety: Issues, Concerns and Responsibilities of the Research Community

The subject of outdoor use of lasers relative to air traffic has become a diverse and dynamic topic. During the past several decades, the use of lasers in outdoor research activities have increased significantly. Increases in the outdoor use of lasers and increases in air traffic densities have changed the levels of risk involved. To date there have been no documented incidents of air traffic interference from research lasers; however, incidents involving display lasers have shown a marked increase. As a result of the national response to these incidents, new concerns over lasers have arisen. Through the efforts of the SAE G-10T Laser Safety Hazards Subcommittee and the ANSI Z136.6 development committee, potential detrimental effects to air traffic beyond the traditional eye damage concerns have been identified. An increased emphasis from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the Center for Devices and Radiological Hazards (CDRH), and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) along with increased concern by the public have resulted in focused scrutiny of potential hazards presented by lasers. The research community needs to rethink the traditional methods of risk evaluation and application of protective measures. The best current approach to assure adequate protection of air traffic is the application of viable hazard and risk analysis and the use of validated protective measures. Standards making efforts and regulatory development must be supported by the research community to assure that reasonable measures are developed. Without input, standards and regulations can be developed that are not compatible with the needs of the research community. Finally, support is needed for the continued development and validation of protective measures.

Nessler, Phillip J., Jr.↗

Reliability and resilience of environmental flows under uncertainty: reconsidering water year types and inconsistent flow requirements in California

Abstract Environmental water allocation in California is a complex legal process involving various government agencies and stakeholders. E-flow requirements can be based on annual runoff typologies called water year types (WYTs), which dictate water volume, timing, and duration. In this study, we examined hydropower licensing documents of the major water and power projects in the Central Sierra Nevada to catalog e-flow requirements by WYT. In this study case, we identify how WYT classification systems and categories vary across and within different basins. Additionally, we assessed the impacts of climate change on hydrology, the frequency of WYTs identified, and the reliability and resilience of e-flows using future projections (2031–2060) of 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). We then propose a potential adaptation strategy using a 30 year moving percentiles approach to recalculate WYTs. We identified eight WYT classifications systems were identified, and their WYT distributions statistically significantly changes across all GCMs, even though most GCMs indicate no statistically significant change in hydrology. Disparities in future impacts are observed among and within hydropower projects, with some river reaches showing negative impacts on reliability and resilience. The adaptation strategy can generally boost resilience and improve reliability, but simply updating existing WYT thresholds without flexible regulatory frameworks reconsidering WYTs and e-flows thresholds, may not yield substantial improvements. Challenges in managing e-flows in California within regulatory and hydroclimatic contexts are intricate due to the lack of standardized approaches, leading to inconsistencies and potential conflicts among stakeholders, that will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Thus, we emphasize that targeted, site-specific, and adaptive management strategies are crucial, besides the need for a harmonized and consistent approach to defining and applying WYT categories and methods and/or e-flow assessments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Approach to Quality Assurance for Complex Environmental Modeling - 20407

A strong Quality Assurance (QA) program for complex environmental modeling is essential for regulatory and public acceptance and trust, but it does not have to be onerous. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) has developed a strong QA program that improves transparency, traceability, reproducibility, and therefore, defensibility and trust. Neptune's QA program has evolved over the past 27 years, transitioning from an ad hoc QA program, to a program that is currently Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 (NQA-1) compliant, and will soon be NQA-1/DOE approved for DOE EM modeling work. In addition, Neptune is a qualified laboratory assessor and qualified auditor for reference materials, a proficiency testing provider, and fully complies with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) QA program. Neptune's President and CEO, Kelly Black, was recently named the Chairperson of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Technical Committee 69, Application of Statistical Methods. A strong QA program has been developed for Neptune's radiological performance assessment (PA) program. Although pieces of their QA program are currently in development, their current program includes document control using Subversion, issue tracking and work flow tracking using JIRA, and transparency and traceability via a system of 'calc sheets' for documentation of all data analysis and modeling combined with 'check print' documentation of QA checking, and rigorous model testing and configuration control. All work is reviewed by an independent subject matter expert who is not associated with the collection and assembly of information, for an internal peer review. The program is enforced with a handful of Standard Operation Procedures (SOPs), Work Instructions, QA Project Plans (QAPPs), and Quality Management Plans (QMPs) that are updated frequently, with required annual training and acknowledgment. In addition, effective communication of modeling approaches and results to clients and stakeholders are integral to their QA program. Many of their models are built using the GoldSim modeling platform, for which their models are well-known for their level of transparency, documentation, and QA traceability. This level of QA is also applied to their process-level models. Neptune has taken some lessons learned from the extremely rigorous QA program required for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP), and imposed the YMP requirements of complete traceability, transparency, and reproducibility, but avoided the inflexibility of a QA program that likely contributed to the suspect e-mails in 2005 that resulted in loss of trust in the YMP, and in nuclear waste disposal (and nuclear power) in general. There are far too many examples of loss of public trust due to poor QA that could have been easily avoided with a simple and straight-forward QA program combined with stakeholder engagement. The purpose of this paper is to share features of Neptune's Radiological Performance Assessment program QA program, and some of their QA related lessons learned over the past 27 years of QA for complex environmental modeling. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Impaired driving performance in shiftworkers: the role of the circadian system in a multifactorial model

A substantial and growing percentage of the U.S. work force now works on a rotating shift schedule. The repeated changes in sleep-wake, meal and work times inherent in such schedules conflict with the dictates of the internal biological clock and have adverse consequences for the health of the shiftworker population. An important consequence of this conflict is impaired performance, both on and off the job, as indexed by the increased incidence of motor vehicle accidents in shift workers. In this paper we report the results of a survey administered to rotating shift and straight day workers at a manufacturing plant in the eastern U.S. This survey documents an increased incidence of motor vehicle accidents or "near misses" in which sleepiness was implicated as a cause by the respondent. Complaints of poor sleep and increased sleepiness were also significantly more common in shiftworkers than day workers. Last, shiftworkers reported higher caffeine and alcohol consumption, and were more likely to use alcohol as a sleep aid. Although causal links cannot be established using these associative observations alone, previously reported experience with alteration of shift schedules, improvement of levels of alertness, and reduction in adverse performance outcomes corroborate the possibility of a causal link and suggest potential interventions.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Performance Evaluation of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring and Piezoelectric Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of Rotorcraft Components

The costs associated with the increasing maintenance and surveillance needs of aging structures are rising at an unexpected rate. Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today’s extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. Aircraft maintenance and repairs represent about a quarter of a commercial fleet’s operating costs. The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems using distributed sensor networks can reduce these costs by facilitating rapid and global assessments of structural integrity. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring can overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. The ease of monitoring an entire on-board network of distributed sensors means that structural health assessments can occur more often, allowing operators to be even more vigilant with respect to flaw onset. SHM systems also allow for condition-based maintenance practices to be substituted for the current time-based or cycle-based maintenance approach thus optimizing maintenance labor. The Federal Aviation Administration has conducted a series of SHM validation and certification programs intended to comprehensively support the evolution and adoption of SHM practices into routine aircraft maintenance practices. This report presents one of those programs involving a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Sikorsky, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp., Acellent Technologies Inc., and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a trial validation and certification program to evaluate Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) and Piezoelectric Transducers (PZT) as a structural health monitoring solution to specific rotorcraft applications. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM and PZT systems into rotorcraft maintenance programs and the document revisions necessary to allow for their routine use as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspections. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of a CVM system applied to Sikorsky S-92 fuselage frame application and a PZT system applied to an S-92 main gearbox mount beam application. The applications included both local and global damage detection assessments. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for SHM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. The validation work completed in this program demonstrated the ability of both CVM and PZT SHM systems to detect cracks in rotorcraft components. It proved the ability to use final system response parameters to provide a Green Light/Red Light (“GO” – “NO GO”) decision on the presence of damage. In additional to quantifying the performance of each SHM system for the trial applications on the S-92 platform, this study also identified specific methods that can be used to optimize damage detection, guidance on deployment scenarios that can affect performance and considerations that must be made to properly apply CVM and PZT sensors. These results support the main goal of safely integrating SHM sensors into rotorcraft maintenance programs. Additional benefits from deploying rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) may be realized when structural assessment data, collected by an SHM system, is also used to detect structural damage to compliment the operational environment monitoring. The use of in-situ sensors for health monitoring of rotorcraft structures can be a viable option for both flaw detection and maintenance planning activities. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM and PZT technology. It will also streamline future regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Clean Fuels with the R&D GREET 2024 Model

This document summarizes research on the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates from the production and use of clean fuels to support a new version of the Research and Development Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model, R&D GREET 2024 In this effort, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) focuses on clean fuel pathways that are readily available in the market or are emerging in the near term. The selected pathways represent clean fuel technologies that convert biomass- and/or waste-based feedstocks to liquid and/or gaseous fuels for the transportation sector and other potential uses. The pathways are configured in R&D GREET 2024 with up-to-date feedstock-to-fuel life cycle inventory (LCI) data. Additionally, a new tab has been added to R&D GREET 2024 called “Clean Fuels” which allows the user to easily change inputs and access LCA results. Argonne does not warrant that the results presented in this report are consistent with the requirements of any particular regulatory or incentive program. Users interested in specific programs that reference GREET are encouraged to review guidance specific to those programs if and when it is available to determine appropriate means of compliance and contact the relevant responsible agencies for those specific policies or programs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Exploring Advanced Computational Tools and Techniques with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Operating Nuclear Plants

This report presents the project Idaho National Laboratory conducted for Nuclear Regulatory Commission to explore the advanced computational tools and techniques, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), for operating nuclear plants. The report reviews the nuclear data sources, with the focus on the operating experience data, that could be applied by advanced computational tools and techniques. Plant-specific and generic (national and international) data from different sources are described. The report describes the relationships between statistics and AI/ML and then introduces the most widely used AI/ML algorithms in both supervised and unsupervised learning. The report reviews the recent applications of advanced computational tools and techniques in various fields of nuclear industry, such as reactor system design and analysis, plant operation and maintenance, and nuclear safety and risk analysis. Finally, the report presents the insights from the project on the potential applicability of AI/ML techniques in improving advanced computational capabilities, how the advanced tools and techniques could contribute to the understanding of safety and risk, and what information would be needed to provide meaningful insights to decision makers. The report also documents an NRC survey on the current state of commercial nuclear power operations relative to the use of AI and ML tools as well as the role of AI/ML tools in nuclear power operations was published by the NRC as in FRN NRC-2021-0048 in April 2021. A summary of the survey including the survey questions, survey participants, survey responses, and the conclusions and insights derived from the survey is provided in the report. Finally, the report investigates potential applications of using AI/ML in operating NPPs and advanced reactors (both advanced LWRs and advanced NLWRs) to improve nuclear plant safety and efficiency. Three main application fields are defined and discussed: (1) plant safety and security assessments; (2) plant degradation modeling, fault and accident diagnosis and prognosis; and (3) plant operation and maintenance efficiency improvement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessing Uncertainty in Modeling Stress Corrosion Cracking

This report summarizes the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to improve the state of knowledge on chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). The foundation of this work relied on using SNL’s CISCC computer code to assess the current state of knowledge for probabilistically modeling CISCC on stainless steel canisters. This work is presented as three tasks. The first task is exploring and independently comparing crack growth rate (CGR) models typically used in CISCC modeling by the research community. The second task is implementing two of the more conservative CGR models from the first task into SNL’s full CISCC code to understand the impact of the different CGR models on a full probabilistic analysis while studying uncertainty from three key input parameters. The combined work of the first two tasks showed that properly measuring salt deposition rates is impactful to reducing uncertainty when modeling CISCC. The work in Task 2 also showed how probabilistic CGR models can be more appropriate at capturing aleatory uncertainty when modeling SCC. Lastly, appropriate and realistic input parameters relevant for CISCC modeling were documented in the last task as a product of the simulations considered in the first two tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Digitalization mapping and assessment process supporting ION strategic transformation activities

The existing fleet of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are an important asset in the nation’s portfolio of electrical generating resources. Their continued safe and reliable operation are critical to providing a large source of carbon-free electricity to power the nation’s economy. The United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program develops the scientific bases, methods, and tools, for the continued safe and economical operation of the nation's commercial NPPs. The Plant Modernization Pathway within LWRS Program focuses on providing guidance to industry on the full-scale implementation of modernization solutions for NPPs that significantly reduce the technical and financial risks associated with modernization. This research is focused on helping the nuclear industry understand how to digitize and digitalize their NPPs so that they can design their modernization solutions to be scalable, sustainable, and integrated both laterally and horizontally within their organization. That is, this research creates a digital transformation in NPPs by reshaping cultural mindsets and by identifying business efficiencies. In partnership with industry, and using four previously established guiding principles for digitalization, this research supported NPP modernization through assessing readiness for digitalization as a means to achieve integrated operations for nuclear. Specifically, this research created an assessment to review an entire organization’s work processes to gather information about the digitalization health of the plant. The assessment tools were administered to plant employees, and the results were used to develop a digitalization plan. The survey assessment identified the optimal candidate processes that would most benefit from a digitalization initiative which were revealed through analytical frameworks. One analysis calculated mean digitalization health indicator scores for all endorsed activities which allowed the researchers to rank and color code the results for easy identification. Individual health indicator scores are also provided, should our industry partner wish to understand these findings according to their own organizational priorities, business considerations and desired end-state. The results were also analyzed from the perspective that organizations are comprised of different types of innovators (e.g., generators, optimizers, conceptualizers, and implementers), which differentially affects the organization’s ability to comprehend and adapt to change (i.e., opportunities to innovate). Understanding the relative composition of innovator types at an NPP allows them to gather insights into the strengths and weaknesses they have in innovating how work is performed. For the utility that partnered with this research team, the results showed that implementers make up the largest portion of respondents and conceptualizers the smallest portion. Knowing the proportion of innovator types gave this organization insights on how they can effectively implement their innovation solutions. Additionally, the results were analyzed from a technical, economic, and risk perspective to identify and quantify work reduction opportunities (WROs). Recognizing that not all cost-saving opportunities are the same, a Technical, Economic and Risk Assessment (TERA) was performed to evaluate WROs to identify areas of greatest potential and lowest risk. The key results from TERA included a digitalization opportunity score for each activity, and a calculation of potential cost savings. These two outputs formed the bases for calculating a priority index and rank for the activities/processes assessed. From the prioritization calculations, TERA can then help the utility 1) decide what digitalization priorities to invest money in implementing and then 2) calculates how much should be invested in the digitalization initiatives selected to achieve cost savings and/or an acceptable return on investment. Last, onsite interviews revealed several inefficiencies in the standard work processes that occur cross-departmentally that are due to the absence of digitized and digitalized processes. Examples of these include time spent scanning paper documents and then uploading the documents electronically, obtaining signatures, and searching for desired information. This represents a digital but not digitalized process. Over 15 opportunities to improve work processes were identified through this multi-method digitalization assessment. The various analytical assessments used (e.g., TERA, digitalization health indicator scores), as well as discussions with the utility partner, corroborated that all the opportunities identified had a strong potential to make work processes more efficient and to improve overall performance of the NPP.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Cyber Security Analysis for Nuclear Reactor Control Systems (Final Technical Report)

This project investigated the cyber-security impacts of moving from an all analog, point-to-point, instrumentation and control (I&C) system to a digital I&C system based on Modbus and a shared communication medium. A formalism called a hybrid attack graph was expanded to support the nuclear research reactor system. The hybrid attack graph allows one to check a system for vulnerabilities, in this case cyber-security vulnerabilities, and to document the attack vectors (scenarios) causing those vulnerabilities. In parallel, a simulation of the system was developed to model both the physical reactor parameters and operations, as well as the network interconnects and communications. This simulation platform was modeled on the nuclear research reactor located at Washington State University. The simulation platform provided a sandbox to evaluate and quantify the impact of identified and proposed vulnerabilities in the system and to determine the effectiveness of countermeasures at stopping these attacks. The simulation and hybrid attack graph tools were integrated to provide a streamlined process of generating attack scenarios, playing those scenarios out in the simulation, and then analyzing the results to correlate system state to states in the hybrid attack graph. This process was used to (1) quantify the impact of attack scenarios and (2) to determine if the system moved through the hybrid attack graph as anticipated. The hybrid attack graph tool was extended and customized to produce a tool to automatically identify critical assets (CAs) and critical digital assets (CDAs) as defined by NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. This tool was verified using the nuclear research reactor at Washington State University. Finally, a series of educational modules covering the findings of the different aspects of this research have been created.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nuclear Criticality Safety Assessment of Criticality Control Containers without Moderation Control at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) provides for safe, permanent disposal of government-owned transuranic (TRU) and TRU mixed wastes. Receipt and disposal of waste at the WIPP site began in March 1999. The Sandia report, Consideration of Nuclear Criticality When Disposing of Transuranic Waste at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, addressed potential nuclear criticality safety issues based on the projected inventory characteristics known at the time [1]. As designs for inventory, waste forms, and disposal packages have changed, new analyses have been performed, and updates have been made to address any potential effects to the WIPP safety basis. New analyses performed include Saylor 2017 [2] and Brickner 2019 [3], which address certain waste containers with specified loadings under post-closure conditions. Both examined several hypothetical scenarios and included analyses to bound (from a criticality potential standpoint) credible configurations that could occur at WIPP during the repository regulatory post-closure disposal time period for feature, event, and process (FEP) considerations—10,000 years. During this post-closure period at WIPP, the screening of FEPs is governed by the risk-based standards and implementing regulations of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (i.e., 40 CFR 191 and 40 CFR 194, respectively) [4,5]. An FEP screening can be based on either a low-consequence or low-probability rationale. A low-probability rationale includes either (a) a qualitative rationale that the FEP is not credible or (b) a quantitative demonstration that the probability is less than 10-4 in 104 years. In this evaluation, a qualitative lowprobability rationale of not credible is used by demonstrating that bounding configurations of the waste are not critical. The demonstration of subcriticality is through quantitative calculations, but a probability of criticality is not evaluated. Rather, the rationale for this evaluation is that bounding configurations with an effective neutron multiplication factor (keff) well below the upper subcriticality limit (USL) make criticality incredible. Reference [2] documented a nuclear criticality assessment of the WIPP repository for disposal of dilute surplus plutonium materials using the Dilute and Dispose Approach and packaging in criticality control overpacks (CCOs). The CCO is the waste disposal container recently designed to allow for up to 380 fissile gram equivalent (FGE) 239 Pu per drum, which is a higher fissile loading than typical waste containers. The CCO consists of a criticality control container (CCC) positioned by upper and lower plywood spacers within a standard 55 gal drum. The CCC is used to establish a geometry control for fissile materials during transportation and WIPP emplacement operations. The current WIPP waste acceptance criteria for CCO payloads limit beryllium to less than or equal to 1% by weight of the waste contents and require the waste form to be non-machine compacted. Reference [2] considered two scenario progressions—room closure from salt creep, hereafter referred to as the reconfigured dry scenario, and flooding with brine, hereafter referred to as the reconfigured wet scenario. The subsequent drying out of the reconfigured wet scenarios was also considered. For all scenarios, subcriticality was maintained when 50 g of B 4 C (acting as a neutron absorber) per CCC was intermixed within the plutonium disposition waste form. The analysis used a waste form description that limits the amount of moderation that could be present within the waste form (i.e., it limits the amount of water and polyethylene that could be present based on planned processing conditions). This analysis to evaluate increased limits on the amount of moderation that could be present was performed as a companion to Reference [2] to address concerns associated with verifying moisture and/or plastic contents of waste materials following packaging of dilute surplus plutonium in the CCO. To that end, this analysis used the models and methods from Reference [2] to evaluate a more generic base waste form consisting of water and polyethylene that is more similar (and nearly identical) to the generic waste forms utilized in other models/analyses supporting the TRU Package Transporter Model II (TRUPACTII) safety analysis [6] (all are without moderation controls). The waste form in this analysis uses a base mixture of 75% water and 25% polyethylene, the total amount of which is varied to determine the optimum moderation to fissile material (H/Pu) ratio. The fissile loading is maintained at up to 380 FGE 239 Pu (modeled as PuO 2 ) per CCO with an additional 545 g of beryllium (to bound the 1% by weight contents restriction) and 50 g of B 4 C intermixed per CCO. The beryllium content (1% by weight) is based on the total allowed waste weight (this does not include packaging and container weights). Figures ES-1 and ES-2 display summary results, showing that with this model including 50 g of B 4 C per CCO, the system keff remains under 0.85 for all moderator amounts and provides a significant margin against post-closure criticality under postulated bounding conditions for compaction. Figure ES-1 compares an infinite model with a room model at the initial emplacement spacing and under full radial compaction. Full radial compaction places each CCC in direct contact and does not credit any anticipated spacing associated with current post-closure geomechanical modeling of the repository [7]. The effects of variations in the H/Pu ratio were evaluated by varying the amount of the water/polyethylene component of the waste model, with fissile loading maintained at 380 239 Pu FGE. Similarly, Figure ES-2 illustrates how various amounts of B 4 C per CCO influence k eff at different radial compactions, all at the H/Pu ratio of 200 (in the room array model). Therefore, while the results from Saylor 2017 [2] modeled more realistic process limits associated with packaging of dilute surplus plutonium, this analysis demonstrates that limits on moderation (plastic and water content) are not necessary to ensure subcriticality in the WIPP repository, provided the requisite B 4 C absorber is present.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integrated Off-gas System: A Preconceptual Design of an Integrated Off-Gas Treatment System

The U.S. has a vested interest in the advancement of nuclear energy to achieve aggressive net-zero goals, with reprocessing and recycling of used nuclear fuels (UNF) playing a vital role. It will not be possible to meet U.S. regulatory requirements without robust off-gas treatment, so it is crucial to advance treatment technologies to facilitate the design of future reprocessing facilities. For many years, teams of researchers across the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratory complex have been investigating off-gas treatment technologies for the capture and removal of volatile radionuclides (i.e., 85 Kr, Xe, 14 C, and 129 I) and oxides of nitrogen (NO X ) that are produced from reprocessing. These investigations have been focused on developing individual technologies for the capture of Kr, Xe, iodine, and CO 2 . Capture technologies for each constituent were tested independently from one another by utilizing nonradioactive surrogates to simulate simplified off-gas streams. The tests have been relatively small, laboratory-scale experiments of up to approximately 1 L/minute total gas flow rate. To increase the readiness of these technologies for deployment, an integrated test system with a larger-scale capacity is needed to bridge the gap between promising bench scale and fully scalable UNF reprocessing off-gas treatment. This document contains the goals, design basis, functional requirements, preconceptual design, and cost estimates for an integrated off-gas demonstration system for the capture and removal of NO x , Kr, Xe, CO 2 , and iodine at 10× higher throughput than earlier laboratory studies. The order-of-magnitude cost estimate for this system is approximately $\$$886,000. Next phases include conceptual design, detailed design, fabrication, and commissioning.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An Integrated Energy Systems Prototype Human-System Interface for a Steam Extraction Loop System to Support Joint Electricity-Hydrogen Flexible Operations

Due to increasing economic competition from renewables and combined-cycle natural gas plants, nuclear power plants are looking toward flexible operations to enhance their cost competitiveness. The Integrated Energy Systems project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program of the U.S. Department of Energy focuses on joint electricity-hydrogen flexible operations. Joint electricity-hydrogen flexible operations entail the nuclear power plant diverting thermal energy via main steam to a hydrogen production plant located nearby. The steam serves to enhance the efficiency of the hydrogen production. Furthermore, high temperature electrolysis requires a large amount of electricity, which the plant can also provide. The plant provides steam and electricity to the hydrogen plant throughout the day, but during peak demand hours the nuclear power plant returns to solely providing electricity to meet the high demand. Through this flexible concept of operations, the plant can optimize the thermal energy it produces without having to maneuver the power of the plant. This report documents the human factors process to design and develop a prototype human-system interface for the steam extraction loop that serves as the conduit between the nuclear power plant and the adjacent hydrogen plant. The design process followed the human factors guidelines set by NUREG-0711, Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (O’Hara, Higgins, & Fleger, 2012), and expanded upon by the Guideline for Operational Nuclear Usability and Knowledge Elicitation (GONUKE; Boring, Ulrich, Joe, & Lew, 2015; Boring, Lew, & Ulrich, 2016). The design process entailed operator interviews to determine the concept of operations for the steam extraction loop, a review and adaptation of digital interface design concepts developed by the team in prior projects, an iterative design process, and reviews conducted by both operators and human factors experts. Several versions of the prototype human-system interface were developed. Operators were interviewed to determine what design features they found useful and would like to see in the interface. The design underwent a review by human factors experts against NUREG-0700, Human Interface Design Review Guidelines (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2019), to ensure compliance with the latest human factors standards for digital interfaces in nuclear applications. The design was then prototyped as a functional windows-based application integrated with the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator modified to include the steam extraction loop. The simulation is supported by the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory at Idaho National Laboratory, which supports operator-in-the-loop testing. This is an ongoing project and the next phase of the project entails performing an operator-in-the-loop usability study to evaluate the interface and examine the proposed concept of operations to extraction steam from the nuclear power plant for delivery to the coupled hydrogen production plant.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗