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NASA NTRS2015

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware For Launch Vehicle Reliability Models

Bayesian reliability requires the development of a prior distribution to represent degree of belief about the value of a parameter (such as a component's failure rate) before system specific data become available from testing or operations. Generic failure data are often provided in reliability databases as point estimates (mean or median). A component's failure rate is considered a random variable where all possible values are represented by a probability distribution. The applicability of the generic data source is a significant source of uncertainty that affects the spread of the distribution. This presentation discusses heuristic guidelines for quantifying uncertainty due to generic data applicability when developing prior distributions mainly from reliability predictions.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2014

Long-Period Tidal Variations in the Length of Day

A new model of long-period tidal variations in length of day is developed. The model comprises 80 spectral lines with periods between 18.6 years and 4.7 days, and it consistently includes effects of mantle anelasticity and dynamic ocean tides for all lines. The anelastic properties followWahr and Bergen; experimental confirmation for their results now exists at the fortnightly period, but there remains uncertainty when extrapolating to the longest periods. The ocean modeling builds on recent work with the fortnightly constituent, which suggests that oceanic tidal angular momentum can be reliably predicted at these periods without data assimilation. This is a critical property when modeling most long-period tides, for which little observational data exist. Dynamic ocean effects are quite pronounced at shortest periods as out-of-phase rotation components become nearly as large as in-phase components. The model is tested against a 20 year time series of space geodetic measurements of length of day. The current international standard model is shown to leave significant residual tidal energy, and the new model is found to mostly eliminate that energy, with especially large variance reduction for constituents Sa, Ssa, Mf, and Mt.

LOD tidal oscillations↗

NASA NTRS2016

Source Data Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system in which it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for suggesting epistemic component uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide one example for assigning environmental factors uncertainty when translating between operating environments for the microelectronic part-type components. The heuristic guidelines will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for more applicable data to reduce model uncertainty.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2016

Source Data Applicability Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system where it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for assigning uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide a case study example by translating Ground Benign (GB) and Ground Mobile (GM) to the Airborne Uninhabited Fighter (AUF) environment for three electronic components often found in space launch vehicle control systems. The classification method will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need to for more applicable data to reduce uncertainty.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2016

Materials Science Research Rack Onboard the International Space Station

The Materials Science Research Rack (MSRR) is a research facility developed under a cooperative research agreement between NASA and ESA for materials science investigations on the International Space Station (ISS). MSRR was launched on STS-128 in August 2009 and currently resides in the U.S. Destiny Laboratory Module. Since that time, MSRR has logged more than 1400 hours of operating time. The MSRR accommodates advanced investigations in the microgravity environment on the ISS for basic materials science research in areas such as solidification of metals and alloys. The purpose is to advance the scientific understanding of materials processing as affected by microgravity and to gain insight into the physical behavior of materials processing. MSRR allows for the study of a variety of materials, including metals, ceramics, semiconductor crystals, and glasses. Materials science research benefits from the microgravity environment of space, where the researcher can better isolate chemical and thermal properties of materials from the effects of gravity. With this knowledge, reliable predictions can be made about the conditions required on Earth to achieve improved materials. MSRR is a highly automated facility with a modular design capable of supporting multiple types of investigations. The NASA-provided Rack Support Subsystem provides services (power, thermal control, vacuum access, and command and data handling) to the ESA-developed Materials Science Laboratory (MSL) that accommodates interchangeable Furnace Inserts (FI). Two ESA-developed FIs are presently available on the ISS: the Low Gradient Furnace (LGF) and the Solidification and Quenching Furnace (SQF). Sample Cartridge Assemblies (SCAs), each containing one or more material samples, are installed in the FI by the crew and can be processed at temperatures up to 1400C. ESA continues to develop samples with 14 planned for launch and processing in the near future. Additionally NASA has begun developing SCAs to support US PIs and their partners. The first of these Flight SCAs are being developed for investigations to support research in the areas of crystal growth and liquid phase sintering. Subsequent investigations are in various stages of development. US investigations will include a ground test program in order to distinguish the particular effects of the absence of gravity.

Reagan, Shawn↗

NASA NTRS2016

Materials Science Research Rack Onboard the International Space Station

The Materials Science Research Rack (MSRR) is a research facility developed under a cooperative research agreement between NASA and ESA for materials science investigations on the International Space Station (ISS). MSRR was launched on STS-128 in August 2009 and currently resides in the U.S. Destiny Laboratory Module. Since that time, MSRR has logged more than 1400 hours of operating time. The MSRR accommodates advanced investigations in the microgravity environment on the ISS for basic materials science research in areas such as solidification of metals and alloys. The purpose is to advance the scientific understanding of materials processing as affected by microgravity and to gain insight into the physical behavior of materials processing. MSRR allows for the study of a variety of materials, including metals, ceramics, semiconductor crystals, and glasses. Materials science research benefits from the microgravity environment of space, where the researcher can better isolate chemical and thermal properties of materials from the effects of gravity. With this knowledge, reliable predictions can be made about the conditions required on Earth to achieve improved materials. MSRR is a highly automated facility with a modular design capable of supporting multiple types of investigations. The NASA-provided Rack Support Subsystem provides services (power, thermal control, vacuum access, and command and data handling) to the ESA-developed Materials Science Laboratory (MSL) that accommodates interchangeable Furnace Inserts (FI). Two ESA-developed FIs are presently available on the ISS: the Low Gradient Furnace (LGF) and the Solidification and Quenching Furnace (SQF). Sample Cartridge Assemblies (SCAs), each containing one or more material samples, are installed in the FI by the crew and can be processed at temperatures up to 1400degC. ESA continues to develop samples with 14 planned for launch and processing in the near future. Additionally NASA has begun developing SCAs to support US PIs and their partners. The first of these Flight SCAs are being developed for investigations to support research in the areas of crystal growth and liquid phase sintering. Subsequent investigations are in various stages of development. US investigations will include a ground test program in order to distinguish the particular effects of the absence of gravity.

Reagan, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Revisiting of Multiscale Static Analysis of Notched Laminates Using the Generalized Method of Cells

Composite material systems generally exhibit a range of behavior on different length scales (from constituent level to macro); therefore, a multiscale framework is beneficial for the design and engineering of these material systems. The complex nature of the observed composite failure during experiments suggests the need for a three-dimensional (3D) multiscale model to attain a reliable prediction. However, the size of a multiscale three-dimensional finite element model can become prohibitively large and computationally costly. Two-dimensional (2D) models are preferred due to computational efficiency, especially if many different configurations have to be analyzed for an in-depth damage tolerance and durability design study. In this study, various 2D and 3D multiscale analyses will be employed to conduct a detailed investigation into the tensile failure of a given multidirectional, notched carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminate. Threedimensional finite element analysis is typically considered more accurate than a 2D finite element model, as compared with experiments. Nevertheless, in the absence of adequate mesh refinement, large differences may be observed between a 2D and 3D analysis, especially for a shear-dominated layup. This observed difference has not been widely addressed in previous literature and is the main focus of this paper.

Materials Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2016

Nanochanneled Device and Related Methods

A nanochannel delivery device and method of manufacturing and use. The nanochannel delivery device comprises an inlet, an outlet, and a nanochannel. The nanochannel may be oriented parallel to the primary plane of the nanochannel delivery device. The inlet and outlet may be in direct fluid communication with the nanochannel. Considerable advances have been made in the field oftherapeutic agent (e.g. drug) delivery technology over thelast three decades, resulting in many breakthroughs in clinicalmedicine. The creation of therapeutic agent deliverydevices that are capable of delivering therapeutic agents incontrolled ways is still a challenge. One of the majorrequirements for an implantable drug delivery device iscontrolled release of therapeutic agents, ranging from smalldrug molecules to larger biological molecules. It is particularlydesirable to achieve a continuous passive drug releaseprofile consistent with zero order kinetics whereby theconcentration of drug in the bloodstream remains constantthroughout an extended delivery period.These devices have the potential to improve therapeuticefficacy, diminish potentially life-threatening side effects,improve patient compliance, minimize the intervention ofhealthcare personnel, reduce the duration of hospital stays,and decrease the diversion of regulated drugs to abusiveuses.Nanochannel delivery devices may be used in drug deliveryproducts for the effective administration of drugs. Inaddition, nanochannel delivery devices can be used in otherapplications where controlled release of a substance overtime is needed. Embodiments of this invention comprise a nanochanneldelivery device having nanochannels within a structureconfigured to yield high mechanical strength and high flowrates. Various fabrication protocols may be used to form thenanochannel delivery device. Embodiments of the fabricateddevices feature horizontal nanochannel lay-out (e.g., thenanochannel is parallel to the primary plane of the device),high molecule transport rate, high mechanical strength,optional multilayered lay-out, amenability to select channellining materials, and possible transparent top cover. Basedon silicon microfabrication technology, the dimensions ofthe nanochannel area as well as concomitant microchannelareas can be precisely controlled, thus providing a predictable,reliable, constant release rate of drug (or other) moleculesover an extended time period. In certain embodiments,the nanochannel delivery device can be used to builda multilayered nanochannel structure.

Ferrari, Mauro↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Global Perspective of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas affected by human activity. About half of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuel combustion remains in the atmosphere, contributing to rising temperatures, while the other half is absorbed by natural land and ocean carbon reservoirs. Despite the importance of CO2, many questions remain regarding the processes that control these fluxes and how they may change in response to a changing climate. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), launched on July 2, 2014, is NASA's first satellite mission designed to provide the global view of atmospheric CO2 needed to better understand both human emissions and natural fluxes. This visualization shows how column CO2 mixing ratio, the quantity observed by OCO-2, varies throughout the year. By observing spatial and temporal gradients in CO2 like those shown, OCO-2 data will improve our understanding of carbon flux estimates. But, CO2 observations can't do that alone. This visualization also shows that column CO2 mixing ratios are strongly affected by large-scale weather systems. In order to fully understand carbon flux processes, OCO-2 observations and atmospheric models will work closely together to determine when and where observed CO2 came from. Together, the combination of high-resolution data and models will guide climate models towards more reliable predictions of future conditions.

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2017

MSRR Rack Materials Science Research Rack

The Materials Science Research Rack (MSRR) is a research facility developed under a cooperative research agreement between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) for materials science investigations on the International Space Station (ISS). The MSRR is managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, AL. The MSRR facility subsystems were manufactured by Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE) and integrated with the ESA/EADS-Astrium developed Materials Science Laboratory (MSL) at the MSFC Space Station Integration and Test Facility (SSITF) as part of the Systems Development Operations Support (SDOS) contract. MSRR was launched on STS-128 in August 2009, and is currently installed in the U. S. Destiny Laboratory Module on the ISS. Materials science is an integral part of developing new, safer, stronger, more durable materials for use throughout everyday life. The goal of studying materials processing in space is to develop a better understanding of the chemical and physical mechanisms involved, and how they differ in the microgravity environment of space. To that end, the MSRR accommodates advanced investigations in the microgravity environment of the ISS for basic materials science research in areas such as solidification of metals and alloys. MSRR allows for the study of a variety of materials including metals, ceramics, semiconductor crystals, and glasses. Materials science research benefits from the microgravity environment of space, where the researcher can better isolate chemical and thermal properties of materials from the effects of gravity. With this knowledge, reliable predictions can be made about the conditions required on Earth to achieve improved materials. MSRR is a highly automated facility with a modular design capable of supporting multiple types of investigations. Currently the NASA-provided Rack Support Subsystem provides services (power, thermal control, vacuum access, and command and data handling) to the ESA developed Materials Science Laboratory (MSL) which accommodates interchangeable Furnace Inserts (FI). Two ESA-developed FIs are presently available on the ISS: the Low Gradient Furnace (LGF) and the Solidification and Quenching Furnace (SQF). Sample-Cartridge Assemblies (SCAs), each containing one or more material samples, are installed in the FI by the crew and can be processed at temperatures up to 1400 C. Once an SCA is installed, the experiment can be run by automatic command or science conducted via telemetry commands from the ground. This facility is available to support materials science investigations through programs such as the US National Laboratory, Technology Development, NASA Research Announcements, and others. TBE and MSFC are currently developing NASA Sample Cartridge Assemblies (SCA's) with a planned availability for launch in 2017.

Reagan, Shawn↗

NASA NTRS2018

Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

Li, Zhao↗

NASA NTRS2017

Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Parts Risk and Reliability User and Application Guide

All COTS parts are not created equal. Because they are not created equal, the notion that one can force the commercial industry to follow a set of military specifications and standards, along with the certifications, audits and qualification commitments that go with them, is unrealistic for the sale of a few parts. The part technologies that are Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) certified or Military Specification (MS) qualified, are several generations behind the state-of-the-art high-performance parts that are required for the compact, higher performing systems for the next generation of spacecraft and instruments. The majority of the part suppliers are focused on the portion of the market that is producing high-tech commercial products and systems. To that end, in order to compete in the high performance and leading edge advanced technological systems, an alternative approach to risk assessment and reliability prediction must be considered.

White, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact Methodology and Outcomes

High fidelity analysis methods known as Progressive Damage Analysis (PDA) methods, capable of reliably predicting the onset and progression of damage in composite materials, are being developed for HEDI event simulation. Four state-of-the-art PDA methods are being investigated: LS-DYNA MAT162, LS-DYNA MAT261, Smooth-Particle Galerkin (SPG), and EMU Peridynamics. Validation of these PDA models aims to follow a building block approach, starting with coupon- and component-level development. As part of the overall effort, material characterization testing was performed to bridge gaps between existing experimental data and the material property inputs required to predict ballistic impact behavior at the component-level. The material models were updated with the results of the coupon-level testing and were then used to predict panel behavior and damage in ballistic impact events. To assess the accuracy of the PDA methods, these pre-test predictions were compared to the results of ballistic impact testing.

Hunziker, Kenneth J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Integrated Computational-Experimental Development of Lithium-Air Batteries for Electric Aircraft

The primary obstacle to enable NASA's vision of Green Aviation is the extraordinary energy storage requirements for electric aircraft. Significant advances in high energy, rechargeable, safe batteries are required to enable electric aviation. Boeing's SUGAR and NASA studies have identified 400 Wh/kg as the threshold energy density for general aviation and 750 Wh/kg for commercial regional air service. State of the Art Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) technology currently has a density of 200 Wh/kg and is expected to plateau at 300 Wh/kg due to fundamental chemistry limitations making it unsuitable for future electric aircraft. Additional demanding requirements include high power, rechargeability, and high safety. Such battery technology does not currently exist. The recent considerable activity in battery research (DOE, Tesla Gigafactory, etc) overwhelmingly has been geared towards reducing cost and improving safety of LIB technology in order to promote the adoption of electric automobiles; and thus it is expected to have little impact on electric aviation development. New battery materials will be needed for the "Beyond Li Ion" (BLI) technologies required for high energy, safe electric aviation. Li-Air batteries have the highest known theoretical energy density (3400 Wh/kg) and therefore and if realized promises to transform the global transportation system. These high energy batteries have the potential to meet the energy storage challenges of current and future NASA aeronautics and space missions in addition to many terrestrial transportation applications as well. However, this technology requires significant components development and integration, as it is currently unable to achieve aircraft requirements. The objective of this project is to leverage modern computational materials methods combined with battery multiphysics tools to develop radically advanced compatible cathode and electrolyte materials, build several Li-Air cells, and flight-demonstrate the corresponding Li-Air battery packs. A significant problem for current Lithium-Air batteries is large scale decomposition of the battery electrolyte during operation leading to battery failure after a handful of charge/discharge cycles. Therefore, development of large scale, ultra-high energy, rechargeable, and safe Lithium-Air batteries require highly stable electrolytes that are resistant to decomposition under operating conditions. A NASA-based cross-organizational "dream team" of high-powered experts combined integrated supercomputer modeling, fundamental chemistry analysis, advanced material science, and battery cell development to tackle this very challenging, multidisciplinary problem. The ultimate goal for the team is to develop an integrated experimental/computational infrastructure to produce a reliable predictive capability for the selection of optimal components, their fabrication parameters, and "design rules" of novel cell components for advanced ultra-high energy batteries that can meet energy storage challenges of NASA missions and many terrestrial transportation applications.

Li-air battery↗

NASA NTRS2019

An Experimental Investigation of a Wing-Fuselage Junction Model in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel

Current turbulence models, such as those employed in Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD, are unable to reliably predict the onset and extent of the three-dimensional separated flow that typically occurs in wing-fuselage junctions. To critically assess, as well as to improve upon, existing turbulence models, experimental validation-quality flow-field data in the junction region is needed. In this report, we present an overview of experimental measurements on a wing-fuselage junction model that addresses this need. The experimental measurements were performed in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The model was a full-span wing-fuselage body that was configured with truncated DLR-F6 wings, both with and without leading-edge extensions at the wing root. The model was tested at a fixed chord Reynolds number of 2.4 million, and angles-of-attack ranging from -10 degrees to +10 degrees were considered. Flow-field measurements were performed with a pair of miniature laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) probes that were housed inside the model and attached to three-axis traverse systems. One LDV probe was used to measure the separated flow field in the trailing-edge junction region. The other LDV probe was alternately used to measure the flow field in the leading-edge region of the wing and to measure the incoming fuselage boundary layer well upstream of the leading edge. Both LDV probes provided measurements from which all three mean velocity components, all six independent components of the Reynolds-stress tensor, and all ten independent components of the velocity triple products were calculated. In addition to the flow-field measurements, static and dynamic pressures were measured at selected locations on the wings and fuselage of the model, infrared imaging was used to characterize boundary-layer transition, oil-flow visualization was used to visualize the separated flow in the leading- and trailing-edge regions of the wing, and unsteady shear stress was measured at limited locations using capacitive shear-stress sensors. Sample results from the measurement techniques employed during the test are presented and discussed.

Kegerise, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Goddard Modular SmallSat Architecture (GMSA) Hardware Presentation

In today's rapidly advancing technology roadmap for space applications there is an emphasis on completing missions faster and cheaper than previous large-scale missions at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) such as the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. As part of this effort, focus has shifted from using mostly radiation-tolerant or radiation-hardened parts to more commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components for missions that can last at least one year in orbit. However, there are some portions of a spacecraft's avionics, such as the command and data handling (C&DH) system and the Electrical Power Systems (EPS) that need to have some level of predictable reliability that goes beyond the capabilities of currently available COTS parts. While there are a number of COTS components that can withstand a total ionizing dose (TID) of tens or hundreds of kilorads, there is still a great deal of concern about tolerance to and mitigation of single-event effects (SEE).

Fraction, James↗

NASA NTRS2019

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Turbulence Measurements on a Wing-Fuselage Junction Model for CFD Validation

Kegerise, Michael↗