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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Pressurized-Water Reactor Core Design Demonstration with Genetic Algorithm Based Multi-Objective Plant Fuel Reload Optimization Platform

LWRS M3 milestone report due September 15, 2023. This report summarizes development and demonstration activities of PRLO optimization platform built in Risk Analysis and Virtual ENviroment (RAVEN), specifically: (1) Improvement of multi-objective non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) to handle large size of objectives and constraints, (2) Demonstration of pressurized water reactor core design with NSGA-II multi-objective optimization platform, and (3) Single-objective optimized core design including system analysis and fuel performance feedback.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 5: Economic analysis

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems are studied along with a variety of economic and programmatic issues relevant to their development and deployment. The costs, uncertainties and risks associated with the current photovoltaic Satellite Solar Power System (SSPS) configuration, and issues affecting the development of an economically viable SSPS development program are addressed. In particular, the desirability of low earth orbit (LEO) and geosynchronous (GEO) test satellites is examined and critical technology areas are identified. The development of SSPS unit production (nth item), and operation and maintenance cost models suitable for incorporation into a risk assessment (Monte Carlo) model (RAM) are reported. The RAM was then used to evaluate the current SSPS configuration expected costs and cost-risk associated with this configuration. By examining differential costs and cost-risk as a function of postulated technology developments, the critical technologies, that is, those which drive costs and/or cost-risk, are identified. It is shown that the key technology area deals with productivity in space, that is, the ability to fabricate and assemble large structures in space, not, as might be expected, with some hardware component technology.

Source record↗

LET analyses of biological damage during solar particle events

The effects of nuclear reactions on integral low-linear-energy-transfer (LET) protons spectra are studied, behind typical levels of spacecraft and body shielding, for the historically largest flares using the high-energy transport code BRYNTRN in conjunction with several biological damage models. The cellular track model of Katz provides an accurate description of cellular damage from heavy ion exposure. The track model is applied with BRYNTRN to provide a LET decomposition of survival and transformation rates for solar proton events. In addition, a fluence-based risk coefficient formalism is used to estimate Harderian gland-tumor induction in rodents and cataractogenesis in rabbits from solar flares, and a LET analysis is used to assess the relative contribution from target fragments on these biological endpoints.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

Massie, Michael J.↗

Badhwar-O'Neill 2014 Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux Model Description

The Badhwar-O'Neill (BON) Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) model is based on GCR measurements from particle detectors. The model has mainly been used by NASA to certify microelectronic systems and the analysis of radiation health risks to astronauts in space missions. The BON14 model numerically solves the Fokker-Planck differential equation to account for particle transport in the heliosphere due to diffusion, convection, and adiabatic deceleration under the assumption of a spherically symmetric heliosphere. The model also incorporates an empirical time delay function to account for the lag of the solar activity to reach the boundary of the heliosphere. This technical paper describes the most recent improvements in parameter fits to the BON model (BON14). Using a comprehensive measurement database, it is shown that BON14 is significantly improved over the previous version, BON11.

O'Neill, P. M.↗

Disaster risk and artificial intelligence: A framework to characterize conceptual synergies and future opportunities

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have revolutionized and redefined the landscape of data analysis in business, healthcare, and technology. These methods have innovated the applied mathematics, computer science, and engineering fields and are showing considerable potential for risk science, especially in the disaster risk domain. The disaster risk field has yet to define itself as a necessary application domain for AI implementation by defining how to responsibly balance AI and disaster risk. (1) How is AI being used for disaster risk applications; and how are these applications addressing the principles and assumptions of risk science, (2) What are the benefits of AI being used for risk applications; and what are the benefits of applying risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications, (3) What are the synergies between AI and risk science applications, and (4) What are the characteristics of effective use of fundamental risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications? This study develops and disseminates an online survey questionnaire that leverages expertise from risk and AI professionals to identify the most important characteristics related to AI and risk, then presents a framework for gauging how AI and disaster risk can be balanced. This study is the first to develop a classification system for applying risk principles for AI-based applications. This classification contributes to understanding of AI and risk by exploring how AI can be used to manage risk, how AI methods introduce new or additional risk, and whether fundamental risk principles and assumptions are sufficient for AI-based applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies.

DeMott, D. L.↗

End-to-End Trade-Space Analysis for Designing Constellation

Multipoint measurement missions can provide a significant advancement in science return and this science interest coupled with as many recent technological advances are driving a growing trend in exploring distributed architectures for future NASA missions. Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) leverage multiple spacecraft to achieve one or more common goals. In particular, a constellation is the most general form of DSM with two or more spacecraft placed into specific orbit(s) for the purpose of serving a common objective (e.g., CYGNSS). Because a DSM architectural trade-space includes both monolithic and distributed design variables, DSM optimization is a large and complex problem with multiple conflicting objectives. Over the last two years, our team has been developing a Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), implemented in common programming languages for pre-Phase A constellation mission analysis. By evaluating alternative mission architectures, TAT-C seeks to minimize cost and maximize performance for pre-defined science goals. This presentation will describe the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) at several levels of details and user expertise; Trade-space Search Requests that are created from the Science requirements gathered by the UI and validated by a Knowledge Base; a Knowledge Base to compare the current requests to prior mission concepts to potentially prune the trade-space; a Trade-space Search Iterator which, with inputs from the Knowledge Base, and, in collaboration with the Orbit & Coverage, Reduction & Metrics, and Cost& Risk modules, generates multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, modeling orbits to balance accuracy and performance. The current version includes uniform and non-uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc and precessing constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The current GUI automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost. The end-to-end system will be demonstrated as part of the presentation.

Mission Desig↗

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Marin County Wildland Fires: Examining Fuel Load and Land Cover Change to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA

Heightened occurrence of severe wildfires in the Western United States is increasing the need to better understand regions of high potential wildfire severity and develop methodologies for identifying the best locations for fuels reduction and active wildfire suppression, especially in populated regions such as Marin County, California. Marin County, located in the San Francisco Bay Area, has had significant development in the wildland-urban interface and periods of highly wildfire-prone conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with Fire Foundry (a Marin-based fire service workforce development program) and the Marin County Fire Department to develop models to assist with fire management. Using data from Sentinel-2A, PlanetScope, ECOSTRESS, a county-wide LiDAR mapping effort, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), our team developed a number of input data layers for three different models to evaluate wildfire severity. One model performed a suitability analysis with weights based on scientific literature; another model utilized a U-Net Convolutional Neural Network trained on previous fires in Marin and neighboring Sonoma County to predict the difference normalized burn severity; and the third inputted data layers into the FlamMap tool that outputs risk categories. We compared model outputs and performed a weighted overlay analysis to identify specific locations where a fireline could be constructed to interrupt the progress of an active fire. These tools will assist partners in preparing for and managing active wildfire situations.

Remote sensing↗

Reliability-Aware Requirements Development for Autonomy Software

Autonomy is the ability of a system to make decisions and take actions in the presence of uncertainty. Validating autonomy, therefore, is a matter of validating that the system makes intelligent decisions even when there might be discrepancies between the observed and the expected state of the world as well as when the possible outcome of each of the possible courses of action is uncertain. During the requirements engineering phase, the functions, including those that are required to be autonomous and their expected behavior are specified. However, in the case of autonomous software system, it is challenging to specify all possible scenarios that the software may encounter. Additionally, since autonomous behaviors cannot always be fully predetermined, it is difficult to reason about their completeness and correctness. While these challenges are also faced with non-autonomous system, they are more prevalent for autonomous system due to their complexity and emergent behavior. Our efforts have been three-fold. On one hand, we have developed a goal-based method for requirements decomposition. We have embedded this approach into a higher-level systems engineering framework and then developed methods for decision and reliability analysis within this framework. And finally, we use simulation analysis to validate the more theoretical methods and provide a feedback mechanism. The decision analysis approach (DA) helps in identifying and mitigating the run-time risks, by bringing to the forefront the uncertainties, decisions, interactions, and other factors that may cause autonomous software to make erroneous decisions. The DA framework is used to quantify, for each decision that the software can make, failure risk due to uncertainties. The information about the key decisions and circumstances that can cause autonomous system to make incorrect decisions are used to generate test scenarios to be run in a simulator to ensure that the system can handle error-prone circumstances. The results or outcomes from decisions, based on the simulated scenarios, can then be leveraged to further gain insight of the assured system. We combine a goal-based approach with simulation analysis to facilitate requirements development for autonomous systems and further provide a method for run-time systems level reliability considerations during the autonomous software development process. The DA and the reliability analysis methods provide a formalism for the consideration of uncertainty in the run time decision-making process for autonomous software. This formalism considers the uncertainty involved in the outcome of different courses of action, in terms of performance and cost, as well as a method to consider the system level reliability implications. System level reliability considerations for autonomous software decision making contribute to the satisfaction of the system level goals over the lifecycle of a given mission. We demonstrate our approach using a hypothetical rover path planning example. The requirements for our rover simulator are based on existing literature about Mars rovers and lessons learned from real world observations at JPL. The specifics of the autonomy design for the Mars rovers, that have not been previously cleared for external release, are not used for our demonstrations.

Lindvall, Mikael↗

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 3: Economic analysis of space-based solar power systems

A variety of economic and programmatic issues are discussed concerning the development and deployment of a fleet of space-based solar power satellites (SSPS). The costs, uncertainties and risks associated with the current photovoltaic SSPS configuration, and with issues affecting the development of an economically viable SSPS development program are analyzed. The desirability of a low earth orbit (LEO) demonstration satellite and a geosynchronous (GEO) pilot satellite is examined and critical technology areas are identified. In addition, a preliminary examination of utility interface issues is reported. The main focus of the effort reported is the development of SSPS unit production, and operation and maintenance cost models suitable for incorporation into a risk assessment (Monte Carlo) model (RAM). It is shown that the key technology area deals with the productivity of man in space, not, as might be expected, with some hardware component technology.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

Employing MACS/ViBRANT as a Surrogate MARVEL Reactor for Startup Reactivity Tuning and Supervisory Control Processes

Advanced nuclear reactors are a key part of the future of nuclear energy both in the United States and globally. They offer unique benefits for various energy-demanding applications, including use in remote locations, compact size, modular manufacturing, remote monitoring, low and/or variable power rating operation, and reliance on novel technologies to enhance operational safety. To achieve economic feasibility, advanced reactors must significantly reduce their workforces in comparison with the current fleet. Achieving this reduction will occur through reducing staff workloads using technology to achieve autonomous or semi-autonomous operations, demonstrated by comprehensive testing and validation activities. These operations will require both software and hardware platforms during the design and testing phases. While simulations are useful during the design phase, their performance can significantly deviate during actual deployment on hardware. This report presents the outcomes of a collaborative technical initiative between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP) and Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) Program. The collaboration utilized the Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS) hardware platform to bridge the gap between theoretical reactor design and actual startup and control operations. Two key use cases were investigated: facilitating the startup testing period and demonstrating supervisory control. The first use case details the key Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor startup physics testing activities conducted using the MACS platform. These activities included drum worth measurements, shutdown margin assessment, temperature feedback analysis, and scram time evaluation, as well as unique testing that would apply to the MARVEL reactor to demonstrate the testing methodologies in a low-risk environment. The MACS platform, serving as a surrogate representation of the MARVEL reactor, proved instrumental in performing these tests. The exercise revealed aspects that led to optimized processes, refined hardware design, and enhanced base software capabilities. By maturing methods and technologies in this manner, the initiative promises to reduce wasted time in the actual on-site reactor deployment effort, thereby saving significant time and resources. The second use case focuses on the development and implementation of supervisory control methods aimed at managing core tilt, which can result from asymmetrical operations or manufacturing imperfections in fuel rods or reactivity control devices. A key objective was to assess and compare the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for supervisory control. The effort aimed to define the role of supervisory control to enhance performance without risking control instability. This effort explored three distinct approaches: rules-based (RB) methods, optimization techniques, and reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Each approach was evaluated for its ease of implementation, its usability, and its effectiveness in responding to asymmetries in neutron flux. Comparative analysis of these approaches provided valuable insights into their applicability and effectiveness, offering a robust framework for advanced reactor operations. Together, these two use cases highlight the potential of hardware test beds to help streamline the design, operation, and control of advanced nuclear reactors. This collaborative effort underscores the importance of continued innovation and experimentation in achieving the next generation of safe, reliable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Safety Assessment of a Machine Learning-Based Aircraft Emergency Braking System: A Case Study

Machine Learning (ML) is revolutionizing many technological fields, but its use in aviation remains restricted due to stringent certification requirements. Efforts by the aviation community to establish standards for certifying ML-based systems are progressing, yet challenges persist, particularly with safety assessment methods for ML-based systems. This research addresses these challenges through a case study of an autonomous emergency braking system utilizing a computer vision deep neural network (DNN). We demonstrate a safety assessment process tailored to ML-specific concerns, such as low integrity and performance variability in quantitative safety analysis. This study can serve as an illustrative example to facilitate the discussion and convergence on certification aspects for ML-based systems within the aviation community.

Safety certification↗

The Fractal-based Analysis of the Regulation of Vascular Remodeling in the Quail Chorioallantoic Membrane

Critical to the advancement of space exploration is the safety and well being of astronauts while in space. This study focuses on the second highest of NASA-defined risk categories for human space exploration, cardiovascular alterations. Current research of this problem is being tackled by investigating angiogenesis through vascular remodeling. Angiogenesis is the growth and formation of new blood vessels. Angiogenesis is an important part of maintaining normal development and bodily functions. The loss of control of this process, either insufficient or excessive vascular growth, is considered a common denominator in many diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, and coronary artery disease. Objectives are presently being met by observing the effects of various regulators, like thrombospondin 1 (TSP-1) and a novel vessel tortuosity factor (TF), through the use of the chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) of Japanese quail embryos, which enables the direct optical imaging of 2-dimensional vascular branching trees. Research within the CAM is being performed to deduce numerous methods of regulating vessel growth. This project centers on the ability of a novel vessel regulator to affect angiogenesis. For example, it is hypothesized that the TSP-1 will inhibit the growth of CAM vasculature. Fractal/VESGEN-based techniques and PTV analysis are the methodologies used to investigate vascular differentiation. This tactic is used to quantify results and measure the growth patterns and morphology of blood vessels. The regulatory mechanisms posed by this vessel regulator can be deduced by alterations found within the vasculature patterns of quail embryos.

Smith, Genee S.↗

Detecting Risk and Anomalies in Airplane Dynamics Through Entropic Analysis of Time Series Data

Despite recent efforts to move away from traditional threshold exceedance detection methods for aircraft state monitoring, modern aircraft still rely on safety thresholds to communicate to pilots the identification of an anomaly in the aircraft when a threshold is surpassed. Current anomaly detection methods mainly depend on uninterpretable machine learning models to learn complex patterns and relationships contained in the time series data of aircraft. Although these methods are capable of identifying known anomalies, their deficiency in interpretability presents a challenge when translating them to different aircraft. To overcome this deficiency, entropic analysis of aircraft dynamics seeks to characterize the complexity, or lack thereof, of the aircraft dynamics prior to the development of a risk scenario. This complexity characterization provides a more straightforward summary of state changes in the dynamics of flight variables. To build a foundation for entropic analysis, we analyzed the complexity of unstable approaches, an anomalous event present in many of today’s aviation accidents. The analysis revealed a statistically significant difference in the complexity distribution of flight variables under a stable approach versus an unstable approach. These differences in complexity were especially notable minutes before an approach was identified as unstable. Moreover, the multiscale entropic analysis revealed the presence of signal complexity at multiple time scales across multiple time windows before landing. By capturing state changes and corrections in the aircraft dynamics using entropy, advanced, yet still interpretable, sensor systems based on entropic frameworks from this study can be constructed in the future using classical machine learning approaches.

Risk detection↗

Steam generator model design parameter sensitivity study for small modular reactor system

Here, this study focuses on design parameter sensitivity studies pertaining to several Once-Through Steam Generator (OTSG) model cases both with and without a riser using python and advanced risk assessment and optimization tool, i.e. Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), to support a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) system. The presented Steam Generator (SG) python-based model is a mathematical representation of a steam-generating unit for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)-type SMR system, including fluid flow and heat transfer equations, models, and correlations. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters (e.g., temperature, pressure, mass flow rate) to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system, such as the Heat Transfer Coefficient (HTC), Reynolds number, Nusselt number, and heat transfer performance. Sensitivity studies analyze the degree to which system output and/or desired parameters (e.g., HTC or heat transfer performance) are sensitive to changes in the input parameters. By using RAVEN, detailed design parametric sensitivity studies. Six input parameters—namely, the pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid) of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (i.e., ±1%, ±5% and ±10 % relative changes) for 600 samples. The analysis results give valuable insights into SG system performance, and provide justification for further research and development such as optimized sensor placement, design verification, validation, and optimization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

cost risk↗