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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1988

Making statistical inferences about software reliability

Failure times of software undergoing random debugging can be modelled as order statistics of independent but nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. Using this model inferences can be made about current reliability and, if debugging continues, future reliability. This model also shows the difficulty inherent in statistical verification of very highly reliable software such as that used by digital avionics in commercial aircraft.

Miller, Douglas R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Statistical analysis of SSME system data

A statistical methodology to enhance the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) performance prediction accuracy is proposed. This methodology was to be used in conjunction with existing SSME performance prediction computer codes to improve parameter prediction accuracy and to quantify that accuracy. However, after a review of related literature, researchers concluded that the proposed problem required a coverage of areas such as linear and nonlinear system theory, measurement theory, statistics, and stochastic estimation. Since state space theory is the foundation for a more complete study of each of the before mentioned areas, these researchers chose to refocus emphasis to cover the more specialized topic of state vector estimation procedures. State vector estimation was also selected because of current and future concerns by NASA for SSME performance evaluation; i.e., there is a current interest in an improved evaluation procedure for actual SSME post flight performance as well as for post static test performance of a single SSME. A current investigation of analytical methods may be used to improve test stand failure detection. This paper considers the issue of post flight/test state variable reconstruction through the application of observations made on the output of the Space Shuttle propulsion system. Rogers used the Kalman filtering procedure to reconstruct the state variables of the Space Shuttle propulsion system. An objective of this paper is to give the general setup of the Kalman filter and its connection to linear regression. A second objective is to examine the reconstruction methodology for application to the reconstruction of the state vector of a single Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) by using static test firing data.

Temple, Enoch C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Statistical study of the correlation of hard X-ray and type 3 radio bursts in solar flares

A large number of hard X-ray events which were recorded by the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) during the maximum of the 21st solar cycle (circa 1980) are analyzed in order to study their statistical correlation with type 3 bursts. The earlier finding by Kane (1981) are confirmed qualitatively that flares with stronger hard X-ray emission, especially those with harder spectra, are more likely to produce a type 3 burst. The observed distribution of hard X-ray and type 3 events and their correlations are shown to be satisfactorily described by a bivariate distribution consistent with the assumption of statistical linear dependence of X-ray and radio burst intensities. From this analysis it was determined that the distribution of the ratio of X-ray intensity (in counts/s) to type 3 intensity (in solar flux units) which has a wide range and a typical value for this ratio of about 10. The implications of the results for impulsive phase models are discussed.

Hamilton, Russell J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Statistical corrections to the NMC medium range 700 mb height forecasts

This paper examines four statistical procedures for correcting the NMC medium-range forecast (MRF) errors in the 700-mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere. The tests were designed to include normal operational constraints, such as frequent changes in the forecast model and the lack of long-term forecast histories on which to base estimates of systematic errors and climate drifts. It was found that the two statistical procedures which provided a substantial reduction in mean square error were a procedure based on simple regression correction at each grid point and one based on lagged-average correction with one day lag at each grid point.

Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A mesoscale gravity wave event observed during CCOPE. I - Multiscale statistical analysis of wave characteristics

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the characteristics of the wavelike activity that occurred over the north-central United States on July 11-12, 1981, using data from the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment in Montana. In particular, two distinct wave episodes of about 8-h duration within a longer (33 h) period of wave activity were studied in detail. It is demonstrated that the observed phenomena display features consistent with those of mesoscale gravity waves. The principles of statistical methods used to detect and track mesoscale gravity waves are discussed together with their limitations.

Koch, Steven E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Quantum disorder, duality, and fractional statistics in 2 + 1 dimensions

A low-energy equivalence between two apparently unrelated Lagrangians with fractional statistics is reported. Exploiting this equivalence, it is possible to study the quantum disordered phase of the nonlinear sigma model with Hopf term. It is found that the quasi-particles in the disordered phase also have fractional statistics. There appears to be a dual relationship between the ordered and disordered phases.

Wen, X. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Double galaxy redshifts and the statistics of small numbers

Tifft (1980, 1982) claimed that observations of double galaxies reveal a 72 km/s periodicity. Sharp showed that the 'periodicities' in the observations are completely consistent with the statistics of small numbers. Here it is shown that Tifft's statistical procedure would ascribe a periodicity to small sets of Gaussian random noise. Satisfying the null hypothesis that the observations are not samples drawn from a normal population would require the acquisition of at least an order of magnitude more data.

Newman, William I.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials

A review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials is presented. Initially, a semi-empirical model is developed showing the origin of the linear relationship between ultrasonic velocity and porosity fraction. Then, from a compilation of data produced by many researchers, scatter plots of velocity versus percent porosity data are shown for Al2O3, MgO, porcelain-based ceramics, PZT, SiC, Si3N4, steel, tungsten, UO2,(U0.30Pu0.70)C, and YBa2Cu3O(7-x). Linear regression analysis produced predicted slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, level of significance, and confidence interval statistics for the data. Velocity values predicted from regression analysis for fully-dense materials are in good agreement with those calculated from elastic properties.

Roth, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A complete sample of double-lobed radio quasars for VLBI tests of source models - Definition and statistics

A complete, flux-density-limited sample of double-lobed radio quasars is defined, with nuclei bright enough to be mapped with the Mark III VLBI system. It is shown that the statistics of linear size, nuclear strength, and curvature are consistent with the assumption of random source orientations and simple relativistic beaming in the nuclei. However, these statistics are also consistent with the effects of interaction between the beams and the surrounding medium. The distribution of jet velocities in the nuclei, as measured with VLBI, will provide a powerful test of physical theories of extragalactic radio sources.

Hough, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Statistical precipitation cell parameter estimation using passive 118-GHz O2 observations

This paper investigates the statistical retrieval of cell top altitude using high-resolution passive 118-GHz multichannel precipitation cell imagery. The observations were made using the millimeter-wave temperature sounder scanning spectrometer aboard the NASA ER-2 high-altitude research aircraft, during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment and the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment, 1986. Results obtained using a nonlinear statistical 118-GHz cell top altitude retrieval technique are presented, illustrating a systematic method for parameter estimation from noisy nonlinearly dependent observations.

Gasiewski, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical analysis of modeling error in structural dynamic systems

The paper presents a generic statistical model of the (total) modeling error for conventional space structures in their launch configuration. Modeling error is defined as the difference between analytical prediction and experimental measurement. It is represented by the differences between predicted and measured real eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Comparisons are made between pre-test and post-test models. Total modeling error is then subdivided into measurement error, experimental error and 'pure' modeling error, and comparisons made between measurement error and total modeling error. The generic statistical model presented in this paper is based on the first four global (primary structure) modes of four different structures belonging to the generic category of Conventional Space Structures (specifically excluding large truss-type space structures). As such, it may be used to evaluate the uncertainty of predicted mode shapes and frequencies, sinusoidal response, or the transient response of other structures belonging to the same generic category.

Hasselman, T. K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical prediction of satellite magnetic anomalies

Computationally rapid statistical procedures are presented for satellite altitude normalizations and the gridding of magnetic anomaly data, as an alternative to the more commonly used but computationally expensive equivalent-source inversion procedures. The statistical predictions of Magsat observations over South America have demonstrated the great computational advantages of collocation over equivalent source inversion in gridding magnetic anomally data; in general, three-dimensional collocation is an efficient and cost-effective approach for obtaining altitude-normalized anomally grids from orbital or arbitrarily distributed data.

Goyal, H. K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters, Batdorf flaw density constants and related statistical quantities using PC-CARES

This manual describes the operation and theory of the PC-CARES (Personal Computer-Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program for the IBM PC and compatibles running PC-DOS/MS-DOR OR IBM/MS-OS/2 (version 1.1 or higher) operating systems. The primary purpose of this code is to estimate Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities. Included in the manual is the description of the calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. The methods for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull line, as well as the techniques for calculating the Batdorf flaw-density constants are also described.

Szatmary, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

NASA combined file postings statistics based on NASA Thesaurus, January 1968 - January 1991

The NASA Combined File Postings Statistics is published semiannually (January and July). This alphabetical listing of postable subject terms contained in the NASA Thesaurus is used to display the number of postings (documents) indexed by each subject term from 1968 to data. The postings totals per term are separated by announcement or other media into STAR, IAA, NLN, and OTHER columnar entries covering the NASA document collection (1968 to date). Over 595,000 book postings for NALNET Books held by NASA Libraries are included under the NLN column. CSTAR postings as well as some previously unreported series are listed under the 'other' column. The distribution of 18,748,083 postings among the 17,304 Thesaurus terms is tabulated on the last page of Combined File Postings Statistics.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical mechanics models for motion and force planning

The models of statistical mechanics provide an alternative to the methods of classical mechanics more traditionally used in robotics. They have a potential to: improve analysis of object collisions; handle kinematic and dynamic contact interactions within the same frmework; and reduce the need for perfect deterministic world model information. The statistical mechanics models characterize the state of the system as a probability density function (p.d.f.) whose time evolution is governed by a partial differential equation subject to boundary and initial conditions. The boundary conditions when rigid objects collide reflect the conservation of momentum. The models are being developed to embedd in remote semi-autonomous systems with a need to reason and interact with a multiobject environment.

Rodriguez, G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Statistical structural analysis of rotor impact ice shedding

The statistical characteristics of impact ice shear strength are analyzed, with emphasis placed on the most probable shear strength and statistical distribution of an ice deposit. Several distribution types are considered: the Weibull, two-parameter Weibull, and exponential distributions, as well as the Gumbell distribution of the smallest extreme and the Gumbell distribution of the largest extreme. It is concluded that the Weibull distribution yields the best results; however, the expected life, shape parameter, and scale parameter should be determined separately for each case of varying wind speed and droplet size. The theoretical predictions of shear stresses in a specific rotating ice shape are compared, and it is noted that when the effects of lift are added to the theoretical model and the interference is calculated with a new mean and standard deviation, the probability of ice shed is computed as 36.64 pct.

Kellacky, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A statistical approach to the brittle fracture of a multi-phase solid

A stochastic damage model is proposed to quantify the inherent statistical distribution of the fracture toughness of a brittle, multi-phase solid. The model, based on the macrocrack-microcrack interaction, incorporates uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks. Due to the high concentration of microcracks near the macro-tip, a higher order analysis based on traction boundary integral equations is formulated first for an arbitrary array of cracks. The effects of uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks at a macro-tip are analyzed quantitatively by using the boundary integral equations method in conjunction with the computer simulation of the random microcrack array. The short range interactions resulting from surrounding microcracks closet to the main crack tip are investigated. The effects of microcrack density parameter are also explored in the present study. The validity of the present model is demonstrated by comparing its statistical output with the Neville distribution function, which gives correct fits to sets of experimental data from multi-phase solids.

Liu, W. K.↗