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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
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NASA NTRS1980

Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers (verification). Predicted solar radio flux; predicted geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp

Efforts to further verify a previously reported technique for predicting monthly sunspot numbers over a period of years (1979 to 1989) involved the application of the technique over the period for the maximum epoch of solar cycle 19. Results obtained are presented. Methods and results for predicting solar flux (F10.7 cm) based on flux/sunspot number models, ascent and descent, and geomagnetic activity indices as a function of sunspot number and solar cycle phase classes are included.

Newman, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Sun: Our Nearest Star

We have in our celestial backyard, a prime example of a variable star. The Sun, long thought to be "perfect" and unvarying, began to reveal its cycles in the early 1600s as Galileo Galilei and Christoph Scheiner used a telescope to study sunspots. For the past four hundred years, scientists have accumulated data, showing a magnetic cycle that repeats, on average, every eleven (or twenty-two) years. In addition, modern satellites have shown that the energy output at radio and x-ray wavelengths also varies with this cycle. This talk will showcase the Sun as a star and discuss how solar studies may be used to understand other stars.

Adams, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The theory of sunspots

This review covers the present state of our theoretical understanding of the physics of sunspots, along with the principal observational results that need to be explained. The topics covered range from the detailed structure of an individual sunspot to the broad connection between sunspots and the global solar magnetic field and the solar cycle. Our aim is to give a critical discussion of the theoretical ideas and models without presenting mathematical details. After outlining the historical development of the basic concepts associated with the magnetohydrodynamic theory of sunspots, we discuss recent treatments of their properties and structure, placing special emphasis on developments that have occurred within the last ten years. There have been remarkable improvements in the theoretical modelling of sunspots, led by new ideas and by more elaborate and realistic numerical simulations. At the same time, new observations have raised new theoretical questions or caused old ones to be reconsidered. In particular, measurements of oscillations in and around sunspots have opened up the new field of sunspot seismology, while recent high-resolution observations have forced us to rethink the structure of a sunspot penumbra.

Thomas, John H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Total solar irradiance measurements by ERB/Nimbus-7 - A review of nine years

The total solar irradiance measurements made by the cavity sensor of the Earth Radiation Budget experiment on the Nimbus-7 spacecraft have detected the sunspot-blocking effect, established the downward trend of the declining solar cycle, and appear to be confirming an upturn in irradiance at the outset of the new cycle. Studies of the measurements' frequency spectra have advanced the interest in helioseismology or mode analysis, and studies of photospheric activity have advanced through the modeling of the sunspot blocking and photospheric brightening vs measured irradiance.

Hickey, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Solar flare protons and alpha particles during the last three solar cycles

This paper presents solar-flare-associated proton and alpha-particle fluxes determined for major events from October 1972 through March 1987 (the period that represents the last part of solar cycle 20 and the whole of solar cycle 21), using data obtained by detectors on board the IMP-7 and IMP-8 satellites, along with earlier obtained data for cycle 20. It was found that the average omnidirectional flux of protons with kinetic energy above 10 MeV for cycle 21 (64/sq cm per sec) is lower than the corresponding number for cycle 20 (92/sq cm per sec) and for the cycle 19 (378/sq cm per sec). No definitive correlation was found to exist between cycle-averaged solar flare proton fluxes and peak sunspot numbers.

Goswami, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Speeds of coronal mass ejections: SMM observations from 1980 and 1984-1989

The speeds of 936 features in 673 coronal mass ejections have been determined from trajectories observed with the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph in 1980 and 1984 to 1989. The distribution of observed speeds has a range (from 5th to 95th percentile) of 35 to 911 km/s; the average and median speeds are 349 and 285 km/s. The speed distributions of some selected classes of mass ejections are significantly different. For example, the speeds of 331 'outer loops' range from 80 to 1042 km/s; the average and median speeds for this class of ejections are 445 and 372 km/s. The speed distributions from each year of SMM observations show significant changes, with the annual average speeds varying from 157 (1984) to 458 km/s (1985). These variations are not simply related to the solar activity cycle; the annual averages from years near the sunspot maxima and minimum are not significantly different. The widths, latitudes, and speeds of mass ejections determined from the SMM observations are only weakly correlated. In particular, mass ejection speeds vary only slightly with the heliographic latitudes of the ejection. High-latitude ejections, which occur well poleward of the active latitudes, have speeds similar to active latitude ejections.

Hundhausen, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Projection of Space Radiation Environments with a Solar Cycle Statistical Model

A solar cycle statistical model has been developed to project sunspot numbers which represent the variations in the space radiation environment. The resultant projection of sunspot numbers in near future were coupled to space-related quantities of interest in radiation protection, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (f) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle event (SPE). Future GCR fluxes have been derived from a predictive model, in which GCR temporal dependence represented by f was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. Results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary radiation fields was influenced by solar modulation up to a factor of three. One important characteristic of sporadic SPEs is their mean frequency of occurrence, which is dependent on solar activity. Projections of future mean frequency of SPE occurrence were estimated from a power law function of sunspot number. Furthermore, the cumulative probabilities of SPE during short-period missions were defined with the continuous database of proton fluences of SPE. The analytic representation of energy spectra of SPE was constructed by the Weibull distribution for different event sizes. The representative exposure level at each event size was estimated for the guideline of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS2024

Sun-as-a-Star Spectral Line Variability in the 300–2390 nm Wavelength Range

Combining the near-daily Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) measurements of solar spectra, we construct line indices (line-core to line-flanks ratios) for various transitions (mainly Fe I) in the 300–2390 nm spectral domain. The indices are supplemented by the wavelength-binned fluxes from OMI and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS-1). To study the short-term (solar-rotational) patterns, we normalize the indices and fluxes to the minimum-activity epoch, then de-trend them with 81 day running means. Comparisons of the de-trended TSIS-1 and OMI fluxes with the NASA-NOAA-LASP SSI (NNLSSI1) model show excellent agreement, to (0.5–2.2) × 10 -4 in the normalized and de-trended data. The data are subjected to a multiregression analysis against quantities representing the facular brightening and the sunspot darkening. The de-trended line indices and average fluxes show different sensitivities to these two solar magnetic-activity manifestations, with the fluxes being far more susceptible to the sunspot component. The de-trended line indices experience a rapid drop of activity levels towards longer wavelengths, albeit with a large rebound in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) domain that is caused by the ubiquitous, temperature-sensitive CO transitions. The wavelength-dependent activity also falls, however much slower, in the de-trended average fluxes. Qualitatively similar behavior is captured by semiempirical models.

Solar spectral Irradiance↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solar cycle changes in the high latitude solar wind

Measurements of the solar wind velocity during the period 1971-79 using the technique of interplanetary scintillation are discussed. The average wind speed was faster than 500 km/s at latitudes above 30 deg for most of 1973-77. The fast polar stream, observed to become much narrower in 1978-79 is examined. The narrowing of the polar streams coincided with the emergence of sunspots at midlatitudes, with the start of the new solar cycle, and with a corresponding contraction of the polar coronal holes. The theory that the solar magnetic field controls the large scale structure of the solar wind is discussed in relation to the results.

Rickett, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

X-ray bright points and the solar cycle dependence of emerging magnetic flux

Soft X-ray imaging of the solar corona during the period 1970 to 1978 resulted in significant modifications to the view of the solar cycle with respect to both the properties of the large scale (coronal holes) and small scale (X-ray Bright Points) solar magnetic field. In the latter case, the particular contribution is to the emerging magnetic flux. Sounding rocket observations combined with the Skylab data indicate that the XBP are anticorrelated with sunspot number and are the dominant contributors to the solar cycle. A continuous data set covering a complete cycle would enable the validity of this result which has serious implications for the nature of the solar dynamo, to be confirmed.

Davis, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

Pap, Judit M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Recurrence of solar activity - Evidence for active longitudes

It is pointed out that the autocorrelation coefficients of the daily Wolf sunspot numbers over a period of 128 years reveal a number of interesting features of the variability of solar activity. Besides establishing periodicities for the solar rotation, solar activity cycle, and, perhaps, the 'Gleissberg Cycle', they suggest that active longitudes do exist, but with much greater strength and persistence in some solar cycles than in others. Evidence is adduced for a variation in the solar rotation period, as measured by sunspot number, of as much as two days between different solar cycles.

Bogart, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar Cycle Modulation of Total Irradiance: an Empirical Model from 1874 to 1988

Evidence acquired during the past decade indicates that over time scales of the solar cycle, enhanced emission from bright solar faculae cause significant variations in the sun's total irradiance even though, on shorter time scales, the most pronounced variations are those resulting from the passage of dark sunspots across the solar disc. An empirical model which accounts for the competing effects of dark sunspots and bright faculae has been developed from the available radiometry in cycle 21, and extended back to the beginning of solar cycle 12. According to this model, the largest 11-year modulation of total irradiance during the C20th occurred in the most recent cycle 21.

Lean, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The inconstant solar constant

The Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) of the Solar Maximum Mission satellite measures the radiant power emitted by the sun in the direction of the earth and has worked flawlessly since 1980. The main motivation for ACRIM's use to measure the solar constant is the determination of the extent to which this quantity's variations affect earth weather and climate. Data from the solar minimum of 1986-1987 is eagerly anticipated, with a view to the possible presence of a solar cycle variation in addition to that caused directly by sunspots.

Willson, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advances and Challenges in Observations and Modeling of the Global-Sun Dynamics and Dynamo

Computational heliophysics has shed light on the fundamental physical processes inside the Sun, such as the differential rotation, meridional circulation, and dynamo-generation of magnetic fields. However, despite the substantial advances, the current results of 3D MHD simulations are still far from reproducing helioseismic inferences and surface observations. The reason is the multi-scale nature of the solar dynamics, covering a vast range of scales, which can-not be solved with the current computational resources. In such a situation, significant progress has been achieved by the mean-field approach, based on the separation of small-scale turbulence and large-scale dynamics. The mean-field simulations can reproduce solar observations, qualitatively and quantitatively, and uncover new phenomena. However, they do not reveal the complex physics of large-scale convection, solar magnetic cycles, and the magnetic self-organization that causes sunspots and solar eruptions. Thus, developing a synergy of these approaches seems to be a necessary but very challenging task.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar neutrino: Flux, cosmic rays and the 11 year solar cycle

It is shown that the results of maximum likelihood treatment of Monte Carlo simulation with constant production rate of 7.6 SNU and 1.Epsilon SNU are consistent with the constant production rate when the tests of hypotheses (e.g., t-test, sigma squared-test, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, run test, etc.) are applied to the two groups of data formed from sunspot minimum range and sunspot maximum range, whereas the real data pulsates with the solar activity cycle. It is shown that SN flux-change is in opposition phase to the solar activity cycle and lags behind the latter by about one year. A correlation between SN flux and the cosmic rays is suggested.

Raychaudhuri, P.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Active region influences upon the solar constant

The influence that active regions have upon the solar constant is discussed. Sunspots appear to lower the solar constant for the few days in which they are located near central meridian. This raises the possibility that an 11-year, solar-cycle-related depression in the solar constant may occur. Recent findings concerning the physics of active regions suggest that sunspots and faculae are largely surface features. Within that surface faculae reradiate, within a few weeks, the 'missing energy' associated with sunspots. This is consistent with the observations showing that the solar constant does not have an 11-year cycle-related depression that some authors predicted. However, there is a secular variation in the solar constant, whose explanation is not completely understood.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗