Benchmark modeling of the Sleipner CO2 plume: Calibration to seismic data for the uppermost layer and model sensitivity analysis
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Zhu, Chen (ORCID:0000000153746787)↗
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Differentially Private Synthesis and Sharing of Network Data Via Bayesian Exponential Random Graph Models
Abstract Network data often contain sensitive relational information. One approach to protecting sensitive information while offering flexibility for network analysis is to share synthesized networks based on the information in originally observed networks. We employ differential privacy (DP) and exponential random graph models (ERGMs) and propose the DP-ERGM method to synthesize network data. We apply DP-ERGM to two real-world networks. We then compare the utility of synthesized networks generated by DP-ERGM, the DyadWise Randomized Response (DWRR) approach, and the Synthesis through Conditional distribution of Edge given nodal Attribute (SCEA) approach. In general, the results suggest that DP-ERGM preserves the original information significantly better than two other approaches in network structural statistics and inference for ERGMs and latent space models. Furthermore, DP-ERGM satisfies node DP through modeling the global network structure with ERGM, a stronger notion of privacy than the edge DP under which DWRR and SCEA operate.
graph synthesis↗
A Verification of Flux Sensitivity Estimates Using the MCNP Tally Perturbation Tool
Nuclear data is commonly used in applications such as nuclear nonproliferation, safeguards, and criticality safety. More specifically, nuclear data is used in predictive simulation codes like the Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ® ) transport code, Serpent, and similar radiation transport codes. The improvement of nuclear data enables more precise and accurate simulations, which result in higher fidelity designs and reduced operational/procedural costs. Therefore, the improvement of nuclear data is of paramount importance across the nuclear community. Nuclear data is improved and validated through integral benchmark experiments. The design of benchmark experiments is an extensive process; therefore, these experiments are often optimized on multiple characteristics, including sensitivity to the nuclear data, during the design process. Sensitivity is a measure of how much a quantity changes due to changes in independent variables such as experimental configuration. An experimental design that has a larger sensitivity to the nuclear data of interest will have a larger impact on the accuracy and precision of the validated data. Past integral benchmark experiments have primarily used the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$) as the predominant measured quantity; however, experiments designed with other quantities in mind would be able to optimize on validating different areas of the nuclear data. A primary goal of the EUCLID project is to design, constrain, and reduce compensating errors in experiments focused on quantities other than $k_{eff}$ to better validate nuclear data across the board. Currently, there is a capability in MCNP to easily calculate the sensitivity of $k_{eff}$ to specific nuclear data of numerous reactions types and isotopes (KSEN card); however, the sensitivity of other quantities must be estimated in more strenuous manners. For example, the perturbation feature (PERT card) of MCNP can be used to estimate first-order sensitivities of some response in fixed source simulations. A recent announcement revealed that the first- and second-order perturbation features in previous releases of MCNP contained a bug. It was identified that particles were being scored into the wrong energy bin. The bug is in the most recent public release (MCNP6.2); however, a patch has been added to the most up to date version (MCNP6.2.2) that has not been released publicly. A direct comparison of the PERT card results for an F4 (neutron flux averaged over a cell) tally before and after the patch are shown in figure 1. All simulations used in the sensitivity estimates in this report were performed with MCNP6.2.2. This work verifies the patched MCNP perturbation tool by comparing first order sensitivities made using the PERT card to estimates made using manual perturbation of the compact ENDF (ACE) files.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Easy_PERT: a Python tool for writing PERT cards and parsing PERT card results [Slides]
This presentation begins by providing an overview of the PERT card. The PERT card uses differential operator method to compute first- and second-order tally variations due to density, composition, and reaction cross-sections. It is possible to have multiple PERT cards in one MCNP input deck to study tally variations for several sets of nuclides, reactions, and energy ranges. Furthermore, the METHOD option tells MCNP to calculate either the perturbed tally (METHOD=-1, -2, -3) or the change in the unperturbed tally (METHOD=1, 2, 3). In summation, a powerful use-case for the MCNP code PERT card is that it facilitates calculating tally sensitivities to nuclear data. Writing PERT card entries and parsing output MCTAL files is tedious and error prone. however, Easy_PERT makes use of existing tools (Faust and MCNPTools) to handle writing PERT card entries and parsing the output MCTAL files. The PERT card is early in the development process and planned upcoming capabilities include calculating sensitivities and combining MCTAL files from separate runs into one JSON file.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
iTOUGH2 v7.1
iTOUGH2 (inverse TOUGH2) provides inverse modeling capabilities for TOUGH2, a simulator for multi-dimensional, multi-phase, multi-component, non-isothermal flow and transport in fractured porous media. iTOUGH2 performs sensitivity analyses, data-worth analyses, parameter estimation, and uncertainty propagation analyses in geosciences and reservoir engineering and other application areas. iTOUGH2 supports a number of different combinations of fluids and components (equation-of-state (EOS) modules). In addition, the optimization routines implemented in iTOUGH2 can also be used for sensitivity analysis, automatic model calibration, and uncertainty quantification of any external code that uses text-based input and output files using the PEST protocol. iTOUGH2 solves the inverse problem by minimizing a non-linear objective function of the weighted differences between model output and the corresponding observations. Multiple minimization algorithms (derivative-free, gradient-based, and second-order; local and global) are available. iTOUGH2 also performs Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty propagation analyses. A detailed residual and error analysis is provided. This upgrade includes (a) global sensitivity analysis methods, (b) dynamic memory allocation (c) additional input features and output analyses, (d) increased forward simulation capabilities, (e) parallel execution on multicore PCs and Linux clusters, and (f) bug fixes.
Finsterle, Stefan↗
Autoignition delay times measurements of linear unsaturated jet fuel compounds inside a shock tube
Autoignition delay times measurements and CO time histories were studied for 2-pentene, a hydrocarbon in aviation fuel and an important species in the development of aviation fuel surrogates. Three mechanisms from the literature were compared against the measured data, and a sensitivity analysis for CO was performed for all mechanisms. Shock tube experiments were performed between 1246 K – 1372 K and 8.8 atm – 9.3 atm at an equivalence ratio of 1, a fuel loading of 0.25% was used and was balanced in oxygen and argon. Discrepancies between the available literature mechanisms exist, the measured data herein is essential for validation of these mechanisms and the reduction of validated mechanisms for coupling into CFD.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Measuring neutrino masses with a future galaxy survey
We perform a detailed forecast on how well a EUCLID-like photometric galaxy and cosmic shear survey will be able to constrain the absolute neutrino mass scale. Adopting conservative assumptions about the survey specifications and assuming complete ignorance of the galaxy bias, we estimate that the minimum mass sum of Σm{sub ν} ≅ 0.06 eV in the normal hierarchy can be detected at 1.5σ to 2.5σ significance, depending on the model complexity, using a combination of galaxy and cosmic shear power spectrum measurements in conjunction with CMB temperature and polarisation observations from PLANCK. With better knowledge of the galaxy bias, the significance of the detection could potentially reach 5.4σ. Interestingly, neither PLANCK+shear nor PLANCK+galaxy alone can achieve this level of sensitivity; it is the combined effect of galaxy and cosmic shear power spectrum measurements that breaks the persistent degeneracies between the neutrino mass, the physical matter density, and the Hubble parameter. Notwithstanding this remarkable sensitivity to Σm{sub ν}, EUCLID-like shear and galaxy data will not be sensitive to the exact mass spectrum of the neutrino sector; no significant bias ( < 1σ) in the parameter estimation is induced by fitting inaccurate models of the neutrino mass splittings to the mock data, nor does the goodness-of-fit of these models suffer any significant degradation relative to the true one (Δχ{sub eff}{sup 2} < 1)
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Search for a direction in the forest of Lyman-α
We report the first test of isotropy of the Universe using the Lyman-α forest data from the high redshift quasars (z>2) (the signal from the matter dominated epoch) from SDSS-III BOSS-DR9 datasets. Using some specified data cuts, we obtain the probability distribution function (PDF) of the Lyman-α forest transmitted flux and use the statistical moments of the PDF to address the isotropy of the Universe. In an isotropic Universe one would expect the transmitted flux to have consistent statistical characteristics in different parts of the sky. We trisect the total survey area of 3275 deg{sup 2} along the galactic latitude and using quadrant convention. We also make three subdivisions in the data for three different signal-to-noise-ratios (SNR). Finally we obtain and compare the statistical moments in the mean redshifts of 2.3, 2.6 and 2.9. We find, that the moments from all patches overall agree at all redshifts and at all SNRs. Since Lyman-α transmitted flux directly maps the neutral hydrogen distribution in the inter galactic medium (IGM), our results indicate, within the limited survey area and sensitivity of the data, the distribution of the neutral hydrogen in the Universe is consistent with isotropic distribution. Increase in survey area and larger amount of data are needed to perform this isotropy test in a bigger domain and different directions in the sky.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Precursor Analysis Report: Doppelpaymer Ransomware Attack on Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) 2019
The DoppelPaymer Ransomware Attack on Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) 2019 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the PEMEX cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The 2019 DoppelPaymer ransomware attack on PEMEX, Mexico’s nationalized petroleum corporation, highlights a unique threat that ransomware and cybercriminal extortion poses to Operational Technology (OT) environments in critical infrastructure. The incident began with an employee downloading commodity malware that allowed adversaries to gain initial access to PEMEX’s enterprise environment. After conducting privilege escalation, tool ingress, and data exfiltration, the adversaries deployed DoppelPaymer ransomware throughout the PEMEX enterprise environment, resulting in the company having to take dozens of systems offline for at least several days. Although PEMEX stated that their operations were not affected, the data exfiltrated from PEMEX was made available for download on DoppelPaymer’s leak site, as well as on other illicit criminal forums. This stolen data included not only company information, but also sensitive OT-specific configuration data. This incident showcases how cybercriminal exfiltration and posting of sensitive OT architecture documentation can pose security concerns for the targeted organization for years due to the long lifespan of OT assets and architectures. Researchers and analysts identified 18 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 190 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Fifteen of the identified techniques used during the DoppelPaymer ransomware attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 163 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 34 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 60 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Design, Implementation, and Evaluation of a Hybrid DS/FFH Spread-Spectrum Radio Transceiver
In recent years there has been great interest in using hybrid spread-spectrum (HSS) techniques for commercial applications, particularly in the Smart Grid, in addition to their inherent uses in military communications. This is because HSS can accommodate high data rates with high link integrity, even in the presence of significant multipath effects and interfering signals. A highly useful form of this transmission technique for many types of command, control, and sensing applications is the specific code-related combination of standard direct-sequence modulation with "fast" frequency-hopping, denoted hybrid DS/FFH, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time. In this paper, we present the efforts carried out at Oak Ridge National Laboratory toward exploring the design, implementation, and evaluation of a hybrid DS/FFH spread-spectrum radio transceiver using a single Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The FPGA allows the various subsystems to quickly communicate with each other and thereby maintain tight synchronization. We also investigate various hopping sequences against robustness to interference and jamming. Experimental results are presented that show the receiver sensitivity, radio data-rate/bit-error evaluations, and jamming and interference rejection capabilities of the implemented hybrid DS/FFH spread-spectrum system under widely varying design parameters.
data rate↗
CUORE-0 results and prospects for the CUORE experiment
With 741 kg of TeO{sub 2} crystals and an excellent energy resolution of 5 keV (0.2%) at the region of interest, the CUORE (Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events) experiment aims at searching for neutrinoless double beta decay of {sup 130}Te with unprecedented sensitivity. Expected to start data taking in 2015, CUORE is currently in an advanced construction phase at LNGS. CUORE projected neutrinoless double beta decay half-life sensitivity is 1.6 × 10{sup 26} y at 1σ (9.5 × 10{sup 25} y at the 90 % confidence level), in five years of live time, corresponding to an upper limit on the effective Majorana mass in the range 40–100 meV (50–130 meV). Further background rejection with auxiliary bolometric detectors could improve CUORE sensitivity and competitiveness of bolometric detectors towards a full analysis of the inverted neutrino mass hierarchy. CUORE-0 was built to test and demonstrate the performance of the upcoming CUORE experiment. It consists of a single CUORE tower (52 TeO{sub 2} bolometers of 750 g each, arranged in a 13 floor structure) constructed strictly following CUORE recipes both for materials and assembly procedures. An experiment its own, CUORE-0 is expected to reach a sensitivity to the ββ(0ν) half-life of {sup 130}Te around 3×10{sup 24} y in one year of live time. We present an update of the data, corresponding to an exposure of 18.1 kg y. An analysis of the background indicates that the CUORE performance goal is satisfied while the sensitivity goal is within reach.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Constraints on cosmological birefringence energy dependence from CMB polarization data
We study the possibility of constraining the energy dependence of cosmological birefringence by using CMB polarization data. We consider four possible behaviors, characteristic of different theoretical scenarios: energy-independent birefringence motivated by Chern-Simons interactions of the electromagnetic field, linear energy dependence motivated by a 'Weyl' interaction of the electromagnetic field, quadratic energy dependence, motivated by quantum gravity modifications of low-energy electrodynamics, and inverse quadratic dependence, motivated by Faraday rotation generated by primordial magnetic fields. We constrain the parameters associated to each kind of dependence and use our results to give constraints on the models mentioned. We forecast the sensitivity that Planck data will be able to achieve in this respect.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Three-dimensional fracture continuum characterization aided by surface time-domain electromagnetics and hydrogeophysical joint inversion—proof-of-concept
Efficient and safe production of hydraulically fractured reservoirs benefits from the prediction of their geometrical attributes. Geophysical methods have the potential to provide data that are sensitive to fracture geometries, alleviating the typically sparse nature of in situ reservoir observations. Moreover, surface-based methods can be logistically and economically attractive since they avoid operational interference with the injection well infrastructure. Here, we investigate the potential of the surface-based time-domain electromagnetic (EM) method. EM methods can play an important role owing to their sensitivity to injection-induced fluid property changes. Two other advantageous factors are the EM signal-enhancing effect of vertical steel-cased wells and the fact that injected proppants can be enhanced to produce a stronger electrical conductivity contrast with the reservoir’s connate fluid. Nevertheless, an optimal fracture characterization will no doubt require the integration of EM and reservoir injection and production data. We hence carry out our investigations within a hydrogeophysical parameter estimation framework where EM data and injection flow rates are combined in a fully coupled way. Given the interdisciplinary nature of coupled hydrogeophysical inverse modeling, we dedicate one section to laying out key aspects in a didactic manner.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Tumor-suppressive effects of natural-type interferon-β through CXCL10 in melanoma
Introduction: Type 1 interferon is in widespread use as adjuvant therapy to inhibit melanoma progression. Considering the tumor-suppressive effects of local administration of interferon-β (IFN-β) on lymphatic metastasis, the present study was conducted to identify melanoma-suppressive molecules that are up-regulated by IFN-β treatment of lymphatic endothelial cells. Materials and methods: Lymphatic endothelial cells, fibroblasts, and melanoma cells were treated with natural-type IFN-β, and melanoma cells were treated with CXCL10. Genome-wide oligonucleotide microarray analysis was performed using lymphatic endothelial cells with or without IFN-β treatment. Quantitative real-time reverse transcription-PCR and an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay were performed to examine CXCL10 expression. A proliferation assay was performed to examine the effects of IFN-β and CXCL10 in melanoma cells. Results: Genome-wide microarray analyses detected CXCL10 as a gene encoding a secretory protein that was up-regulated by IFN-β in lymphatic endothelial cells. IFN-β treatment significantly induced CXCL10 in dermal lymphatic endothelial cells and melanoma cells that are highly sensitive to IFN-β. CXCL10 reduced melanoma cell proliferation in IFN-β-sensitive cells as well as resistant cells. Melanoma cells in which CXCL10 was knocked down were sensitive to IFN-β. CXCR3-B, which encodes the CXCL10 receptor, was up-regulated in melanoma cells with high sensitivity to IFN-β and down-regulated in melanoma cells with medium to low sensitivity. Conclusions: Our data suggest that IFN-β suppresses proliferation and metastasis from the local lymphatic system and melanoma cells via CXCL10. Down-regulation of CXCR3-B by IFN-β may be associated with resistance to IFN-β. - Highlights: • We search melanoma-suppressive molecules induced by IFN-β. • IFN-β induces a high amount of CXCL10 from lymphatic endothelial cells. • CXCL10 induction level in melanoma cells is correlated with the sensitivity to IFN-β. • CXCL10 reduces proliferation in IFN-β-sensitive cells as well as resistant cells. • CXCR3-B is down-regulated by IFN-β exclusively in IFN-β-resistant cells.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
KECK-I MOSFIRE SPECTROSCOPY OF THE z {approx} 12 CANDIDATE GALAXY UDFj-39546284
We report the results of deep (4.6 hr) H-band spectroscopy of the well studied z {approx} 12 H-band dropout galaxy candidate UDFj-39546284 with MOSFIRE on Keck-I. These data reach a sensitivity of 5-10 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -19} erg s{sup -1} cm{sup -2} per 4.4 A resolution element between sky lines. Previous papers have argued that this source could either be a large equivalent width line emitting galaxy at 2 < z < 3.5 or a luminous galaxy at z {approx} 12. We find a 2.2{sigma} peak associated with a line candidate in deep Hubble Space Telescope Wide-Field Camera 3 Infrared grism observations, but at a lower flux than expected. After considering several possibilities, we conclude these data cannot conclusively confirm or reject the previous line detection, and significantly deeper spectroscopic observations are required. We also search for low-redshift emission lines in 10 other 7 < z < 10 z, Y, and J-dropout candidates in our mask and find no significant detections.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Contributions to the BeEST sterile neutrino search
Sterile neutrinos are hypothetical right-handed leptons that have been postulated as extensions to the Standard Model to help explain the origin of neutrino masses and the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Universe. Sterile neutrinos with keV-scale masses are also a promising candidate for dark matter. LLNL and the Colorado School of Mines are developing an experiment to search for sterile neutrinos by measuring the \Beryllium-7 Electron capture in Superconducting Tunnel junctions (STJs)" (the \BeEST" Experiment). When 7 Be implanted into STJ radiation detectors decays by electron capture, the neutrino escapes and the energy of the recoiling 7 Li nucleus can be measured with high accuracy. Using conservation of energy and momentum, the mass of the emitted neutrino can then be found. Sterile keV neutrinos would generate additional peaks in the spectrum, and the experiment uses high-resolution STJs to observe such a potential signal. During my internship, I contributed to different aspects of the BeEST experiment. I designed a UHV setup for X-ray spectroscopy analysis with STJs. It will allow high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of different materials to examine the broadening in the BeEST spectra, the origins of which are unknown but may be related to material effects inside the STJ detectors. The design accounts for the specific demands of the BeEST project, but provides a degree of flexibility that makes it useful for other potential STJ projects. Additionally, to test the accuracy of the electronics and data analysis routine, an arbitrary waveform generator (AWG) will be used to generate simulated spectra that contain sterile neutrino signals of a specified mass and admixture. For this I programmed an AWG to output random STJ signals whose amplitudes follow the appropriate user-de ned probability distribution. The AWG signals can be input into the 32-channel preamplifier to simulate any spectrum of interest and test the uniformity of the amplifier chain, as well as the sensitivity of the data analysis.
42 ENGINEERING↗