Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Solar Activity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Physics-Based Approach to Predict the Solar Activity Cycles

Observations of the complex highly non-linear dynamics of global turbulent flows and magnetic fields are currently available only from Earth-side observations. Recent progress in helioseismology has provided us some additional information about the subsurface dynamics, but its relation to the magnetic field evolution is not yet understood. These limitations cause uncertainties that are difficult take into account, and perform proper calibration of dynamo models. The current dynamo models have also uncertainties due to the complicated turbulent physics of magnetic field generation, transport and dissipation. Because of the uncertainties in both observations and theory, the data assimilation approach is natural way for the solar cycle prediction and estimating uncertainties of this prediction. I will discuss the prediction results for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 and their uncertainties and affect of Ensemble Kalman Filter parameters to resulting predictions.

Physics-Based↗
NASA NTRS1995

Reduction, analysis, and properties of electric current systems in solar active regions

The specific attraction and, in large part, the significance of solar magnetograms lie in the fact that they give the most important data on the electric currents and the nonpotentiality of active regions. Using the vector magnetograms from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), we employ a unique technique in the area of data analysis for resolving the 180 deg ambiguity in order to calculate the spatial structure of the vertical electric current density. The 180 deg ambiguity is resolved by applying concepts from the nonlinear multivariable optimization theory. The technique is shown to be of particular importance in very nonpotential active regions. The characterization of the vertical electric current density for a set of vector magnetograms using this method then gives the spatial scale, locations, and magnitude of these current systems. The method, which employs an intermediate parametric function which covers the magnetogram and which defines the local `preferred' direction, minimizes a specific functional of the observed transverse magnetic field. The specific functional that is successful is the integral of the square of the vertical current density. We find that the vertical electric current densities have common characteristics for the extended bipolar (beta) (gamma) (delta)-regions studied. The largest current systems have j(sub z)'s which maximizes around 30 mA/sq m and have a linear decreasing distribution to a diameter of 30 Mn.

Gary, G. Allen↗
NASA NTRS1995

Reduction, Analysis, and Properties of Electric Current Systems in Solar Active Regions

The specific attraction and, in large part, the significance of solar vector magnetograms lie in the fact that they give the most important data on the electric currents and the nonpotentiality of active regions. Using the vector magnetograms from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), we employ a unique technique in the area of data analysis for resolving the 180 degree ambiguity in order to calculate the spatial structure of the vertical electric current density. The 180 degree ambiguity is resolved by applying concepts from the nonlinear multivariable optimization theory. The technique is shown to be of particular importance in very nonpotential active regions. The characterization of the vertical electric current density for a set of vector magnetograms using this method then gives the spatial scale, locations, and magnitude of these current systems. The method, which employs an intermediate parametric function which covers the magnetogram and which defines the local "preferred" direction, minimizes a specific functional of the observed transverse magnetic field. The specific functional that is successful is the integral of the square of the vertical current density. We find that the vertical electric current densities have common characteristics for the extended bipolar beta gamma delta-regions studied. The largest current systems have j(sub z)'s which maximizes around 30 mA per square meter and have a linear decreasing distribution to a diameter of 30 Mm.

Gary, G. Allen↗
NASA NTRS1972

Planetary resonances, bi-stable oscillation modes, and solar activity cycles

The natural resonance structure of the planets in the solar system yields resonance periods of 11.08 and 180 years. The 11.08 year period is due to resonance of the sidereal periods of the three inner planets. The 180-year period is due to synodic resonances of the four major planets. These periods are also observed in the sunspot time series. The 11-year sunspot cycles from 1 to 19 are separated into categories of positive and negative cycles, Mode 1 and Mode 2 cycles, and typical and anomalous cycles. Each category has a characteristic shape, magnitude, or duration, so that statistical prediction techniques are improved when a cycle can be classified in a given category. These categories provide evidence for bistable modes of solar oscillation. The next minimum is expected in 1977 and the next maximum in 1981 or later. These epoch values are 2.5 years later than those based on typical cycle characteristics.

Sleeper, H. P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Study of the relationship between solar activity and terrestrial weather

Evidence for some connection between weather and solar related phenomena is presented. Historical data of world wide temperature variations with relationship to change in solar luminosity are examined. Several test methods for estimating the statistical significance of such phenomena are discussed in detail.

Sturrock, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Satellite observed ozone variations and solar activity

The degree of association between total and stratospheric ozone and solar ultraviolet irradiance is evaluated based on mean monthly latitudinally averaged ozone observations from the Nimbus-4 BUV data set. The mean monthly 10.7 cm solar flux f(10.7), adjusted for varying earth-sun distance, is used as a convenient index of solar UV variation. Results show no obvious relationship between total ozone and solar ultraviolet irradiance based on analysis of satellite data over a period of seven years, even though such a relationship has been suggested from theoretical considerations. However, the analysis does indicate that there may be a positive response in the upper tropical stratosphere, at a height of about 45-50 km such that there is an increase in the ozone concentration following an increase in solar UV radiation, which is assumed to be indicated by an increase in f(10.7) flux

London, J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Simultaneous Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and very large array observations of solar active regions

The research deals mainly with Very Large Array and Solar Maximum Mission observations of the ubiquitous coronal loops that dominate the structure of the low corona. As illustrated, the observations of thermal cyclotron lines at microwave wavelengths provide a powerful new method of accurately specifying the coronal magnetic field strength. Processes are delineated that trigger solar eruptions from coronal loops, including preburst heating and the magnetic interaction of coronal loops. Evidence for coherent burst mechanisms is provided for both the Sun and nearby stars, while other observations suggest the presence of currents that may amplify the coronal magnetic field to unexpectedly high levels. The existence is reported of a new class of compact, variable moving sources in regions of apparently weak photospheric field.

Lang, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The tropospheric response pattern to solar activity forcing

It is tempting to speculate on the possibility that solar flares sometimes are the initial cause of and atmospheric disturbance, which cumulative effect may give rise to a correlation at the 11 year timescale. Reasons to reconsider the possible relevance of solar flare response studies are stated. The discovery of the apparently decisive role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO) in establishing the atmospheric response pattern to solar forcing may throw new light on some of the earlier published relations. Reanalysis of old data in some cases may be advisable. Data on solar flares and their effects on the earth's atmosphere might be a promising candidate for reexamination.

Schuurmans, C. J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Description, analysis and impact of major solar activity during recent U.S. Shuttle missions

Since STS-26, three large solar events have occurred during Shuttle missions: a geomagnetic storm during STS-29 and solar particle events (SPEs) during STS-28 and -34. The maximum dose to a crew attributed to an SPE was estimated to be 30 micro-Gy. Time-resolved dosimetry measurements of the SPE dose during STS-28 were made using the USAF Radiation Monitoring Equipment. Comparison of calculated and measured dose demonstrated a discrepancy, possibly a result of deficiencies in the geomagnetic cutoff model used. This experience demonstrates that dose from an SPE is strongly dependent on numerous factors such as orbit inclination, SPE start time, spectral parameters and geomagnetic field conditions; the exact combination of these factors is fortuitous. New sources of data and procedures are being investigated, including real-time tracking of auroral oval positions or determination of particle cutoff latitudes, for incorporation into operational Shuttle radiation support practices.

Golightly, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Solar Activity Studies using Microwave Imaging Observations

We report on the status of solar cycle 24 based on polar prominence eruptions (PEs) and microwave brightness enhancement (MBE) information obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph. The north polar region of the Sun had near-zero field strength for more than three years (2012-2015) and ended only in September 2015 as indicated by the presence of polar PEs and the lack of MBE. The zero-polar-field condition in the south started only around 2013, but it ended by June 2014. Thus the asymmetry in the times of polarity reversal switched between cycle 23 and 24. The polar MBE is a good proxy for the polar magnetic field strength as indicated by the high degree of correlation between the two. The cross-correlation between the high- and low-latitude MBEs is significant for a lag of approximately 5.5 to 7.3 years, suggesting that the polar field of one cycle indicates the sunspot number of the next cycle in agreement with the Babcock-Leighton mechanism of solar cycles. The extended period of near-zero field in the north-polar region should result in a weak and delayed sunspot activity in the northern hemisphere in cycle 25.

microwave radio emission↗
NASA NTRS2012

Performance of the IRI-2007 Model for Equatorial Topside Ion Density in the African Sector for Low and Extremely Low Solar Activity

The recent availability of new data sets during the recent extreme solar minimum provides an opportunity for testing the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere in historically under-sampled regions. This study will present averages and variability of topside ionospheric densities over Africa as a function of season, local time, altitude, and magnetic dip latitude as measured by the Coupled Ion-Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) Mission of Opportunity on the C/NOFS satellite. The results will be compared to the three topside model options available in IRI-2007. Overall, the NeQuick model is found to have the best performance, though during the deepest part of the solar minimum all three options significantly overestimate density.

Klenzing, J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Solar activity and the general absence of hydrostatic equilibrium in an azimuthal magnetic field

It is shown that any temperature variation along the axis of symmetry of an azimuthal field causes continual convective activity. There is no static equilibrium configuration except in very special, and hence improbable, cases. It is suggested that this dynamic effect contributes to the activity associated with the flux tubes extending through the solar photosphere. The X-ray bright spots, evidently caused by the emergence and expansion of small bipolar regions, may be produced in part by the convective effect of an azimuthal field.

Parker, E. N.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar activity: The Sun as an X-ray star

The existence and constant activity of the Sun's outer atmosphere are thought to be due to the continual emergence of magnetic fields from the Solar interior and the stressing of these fields at or near the surface layers of the Sun. The structure and activity of the corona are thus symptomatic of the underlying magnetic dynamo and the existence of an outer turbulent convective zone on the Sun. A sufficient condition for the existence of coronal activity on other stars would be the existence of a magnetic dynamo and an outer convective zone. The theoretical relationship between magnetic fields and coronal activity can be tested by Solar observations, for which the individual loop structures can be resolved. A number of parameters however, which enter into the alternative theoretical formulations remain fixed in all Solar observations. To determine whether these are truly parameters of the theory observations need to be extended to nearby stars on which suitable conditions may occur.

Golub, L.↗