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DOE OSTI2018

Enhanced data validation strategy of air quality monitoring network

Quick validation and detection of faults in measured air quality data is a crucial step towards achieving the objectives of air quality networks. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are threefold: (i) to develop a modeling technique that can be used to predict the normal behavior of air quality variables and help provide accurate reference for monitoring purposes; (ii) to develop fault detection method that can effectively and quickly detect any anomalies in measured air quality data. For this purpose, a new fault detection method that is based on the combination of generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) will be developed. GLRT is a well-known statistical fault detection method that relies on maximizing the detection probability for a given false alarm rate. In this paper, we propose to develop GLRT-based EWMA fault detection method that will be able to detect the changes in the values of certain air quality variables; (iii) to develop fault isolation and identification method that allows defining the fault source(s) in order to properly apply appropriate corrective actions. In this paper, reconstruction approach that is based on Midpoint-Radii Principal Component Analysis (MRPCA) model will be developed to handle the types of data and models associated with air quality monitoring networks. All air quality modeling, fault detection, fault isolation and reconstruction methods developed in this paper will be validated using real air quality data (such as particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen and carbon oxides measurement).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Guiding the choice of informatics software and tools for lipidomics research applications

Progress in mass spectrometry lipidomics has led to a rapid proliferation of studies across biology and biomedicine. These generate extremely large raw datasets requiring sophisticated solutions to support automated data processing. To address this, numerous software tools have been developed and tailored for specific tasks. However, for researchers, deciding which approach best suits their application relies on ad hoc testing, which is inefficient and time consuming. Here we first review the data processing pipeline, summarizing the scope of available tools. Next, to support researchers, LIPID MAPS provides an interactive online portal listing open-access tools with a graphical user interface. This guides users towards appropriate solutions within major areas in data processing, including (1) lipid-oriented databases, (2) mass spectrometry data repositories, (3) analysis of targeted lipidomics datasets, (4) lipid identification and (5) quantification from untargeted lipidomics datasets, (6) statistical analysis and visualization, and (7) data integration solutions. Detailed descriptions of functions and requirements are provided to guide customized data analysis workflows.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Purely Poisson-based Approach to Estimating Audible Scan Survey Sensitivities

Several endeavors have been made over the years to estimate the sensitivity of audible scan surveys. Some estimates involved certain factors of the background count rate, while others involved calculations utilizing parameters pulled from the normal (Gaussian) distribution, regardless of background count rate. This paper discusses the results of a purely Poisson-based calculational method for the determination of appropriate decision levels and affiliated detection limits associated with health physics audible scan surveys. Comparisons are made to the other approaches and to empirical tests, where available. Although agreement with previous estimates can be had over limited ranges of background count rate, order-of-magnitude differences are possible outside of those ranges. The previous estimates are generally conservative at the higher count rates yet quite nonconservative at the lowest count rates. Several real-life operational examples are provided that illustrate the approach.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation applied to the versatile test reactor conceptual design

We report the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) currently under development is a 300 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) fueled with ternary metal alloy fuel, which aims to accelerate the testing of advanced nuclear fuels, materials, instrumentation, and sensors in high flux environments that are necessary to license the next generation of advanced reactor concepts. To support the VTR design process, uncertainties associated with the nuclear data has been propagated through the reactor core neutronics calculation to global parameters of interest, such as the core multiplication factor, kinetic parameters, and various reactivity feedback coefficients, following the sensitivity based uncertainty propagation approach. By folding the sensitivity coefficients, separately computed by the generalized perturbation theory code PERSENT and Monte Carlo code Serpent 2, with the variance-covariance matrices from COMMARA-2.0, we obtain the reaction-wise, isotope-wise, and overall uncertainties for each response of interest due to nuclear data uncertainty. With Serpent 2, the statistical error of the uncertainty is obtained by propagating the statistical error of the sensitivity coefficients through the same process using a newly developed uncertainty propagation method. From both codes, the overall top uncertainty contributors are found to be the cross section of Fe-56 elastic scattering, Na-23 elastic scattering, and U 238 inelastic scattering. The large contributions of the Fe-56 elastic scattering cross sections to global parameters are due to its relatively large relative uncertainty of 5–10% in nuclear data and the large volume of Fe-containing reflector assemblies in the fairly compact VTR core design. Both codes agreed well for the overall uncertainty estimates of all responses of interest, except the delayed neutron fraction, prompt neutron generation time, and the coolant density feedback coefficient, where Serpent 2 yielded a much larger value than PERSENT due to the large statistical error of sensitivity coefficients. The calculated uncertainties are also compared to those associated with other SFR cores. Another outcome of this study is a variance-covariance matrix of reactivity coefficients, which can be used in the subsequent uncertainty propagation to the system level to investigate the impact of identified uncertainties on system responses in the safety analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sampling for Confidence: Guidance for Evaluating the Quality of Canister Sampling Plans

There is a need for an inspection frequency that demonstrates reasonable assurance that the confinement function of dual-purpose-canisters (DPCs) is maintained as these DPCs are returned to storage service following transportation. The DPCs contain spent fuel from shutdown reactor sites. The currently-proposed 100% DPC inspection frequency is overly conservative and unnecessary to demonstrate reasonable assurance that the confinement function of all DPCs is maintained for return to storage service. Testing all DPCs does not appropriately reflect the very low risk of leakage (i.e., low probability based on design and low consequences based on analysis). Currently, there are 1066 DPCs forecast to be loaded at reactor sites which either are shutdown or plan to cease operations by 2025. These DPCs may be transported by rail in sets of 3 to 5 DPCs per shipment. Assuming each rail consist originates at a single reactor site, an alternative proposal to test one canister/consist/site would result in 356 to 214 canisters, respectively, being tested given the population of 1,066 canisters This Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) report outlines statistically-based, random sampling plans that provide guidance on the number of samples of these canisters that are needed to establish bounds on the quality of the outcome of such sampling. The quality of each proposed sampling plan is expressed in the form of a statement that the number of undetected, unacceptable canisters in the population is less than some number, call it D, at a high level of confidence. In addition, evaluations using a similar approach for random sampling at the proposed levels of 214 and 356 canisters are provided.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sampling for Confidence: Guidance for Evaluating the Quality of Canister Sampling Plans

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere cosmic shear project V: Constraints on cosmology and astrophysics from 270 million galaxies across 13,000 deg$^2$ of the sky

We present constraints on models of cosmology and astrophysics using cosmic shear data vectors from three datasets: the northern and southern Galactic cap of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) project, and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3. These data vectors combined consist of 270 million galaxies spread across 13,000 ${\rm deg}^2$ of the sky. We first extract constraints for $Λ$CDM cosmology and find $S_8= 0.805^{+0.019}_{-0.019}$ and $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.262^{+0.023}_{-0.036}$, which is consistent within $1.9 σ$ of constraints from the Planck satellite. Extending our analysis to dynamical dark energy models shows that lensing provides some (but still minor) improvements to existing constraints from supernovae and baryon acoustic oscillations. Finally, we study six different models for the impact of baryons on the matter power spectrum. We show the different models provide consistent constraints on baryon suppression, and associated cosmology, once the astrophysical priors are sufficiently wide. Current scale-cut approaches for mitigating baryon contamination result in a residual bias of $\approx 0.3σ$ in the $S_8, Ω_{\rm m}$ posterior. Using all scales with dedicated baryon modeling leads to negligible improvement as the new information is used solely to self-calibrate the baryon model on small scales. Additional non-lensing datasets, and/or calibrations of the baryon model, will be required to access the full statistical power of the lensing measurements. The combined dataset in this work represents the largest lensing dataset to date (most galaxies, largest area) and provides an apt testing ground for analyses of upcoming datasets from Stage IV surveys. The DECADE shear catalogs, data vectors, and likelihoods are made publicly available.

Anbajagane, D. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental dynamics, accurate prediction from direct observations becomes challenging. In such cases a more effective approach is to cast statistics of interest as solutions to Feynman-Kac equations (partial differential equations). Here, we develop an approach to solve Feynman-Kac equations by training neural networks on short-trajectory data. Our approach is based on a Markov approximation but otherwise avoids assumptions about the underlying model and dynamics. This makes it applicable to treating complex computational models and observational data. Additionally, we illustrate the advantages of our method using a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization, and this analysis motivates an adaptive sampling strategy that allows on-the-fly identification of and addition of data to regions important for predicting the statistics of interest. Finally, we demonstrate that we can compute accurate statistics for a 75-dimensional model of sudden stratospheric warming. This system provides a stringent test bed for our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-driven Mori–Zwanzig modeling of Lagrangian particle dynamics in turbulent flows

The dynamics of Lagrangian particles in turbulence play a crucial role in mixing, transport, and dispersion in complex flows. Their trajectories exhibit highly nontrivial statistical behavior, motivating the development of surrogate models that can reproduce these trajectories without incurring the high computational cost of direct numerical simulations of the full Eulerian field. This task is particularly challenging because reduced-order models typically lack access to the full set of interactions with the underlying turbulent field. Novel data-driven machine learning techniques can be powerful in capturing and reproducing complex statistics of the reduced-order/surrogate dynamics. In this work, we show how one can learn a surrogate dynamical system that is able to evolve a turbulent Lagrangian trajectory in a way that is point-wise accurate for short-time predictions (with respect to Kolmogorov time) and stable and statistically accurate at long times. This approach is based on the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, which prescribes a mathematical decomposition of the full dynamical system into resolved dynamics that depend on the current state and the past history of a reduced set of observables, and the unresolved orthogonal dynamics due to unresolved degrees of freedom of the initial state. We show how by training this reduced order model on a point-wise error metric on short time-prediction, we are able to correctly learn the dynamics of Lagrangian turbulence, such that also the long-time statistical behavior is stably recovered at test time. This opens up a range of applications, for example, for the control of active Lagrangian agents in turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

OperonSEQer: A set of machine-learning algorithms with threshold voting for detection of operon pairs using short-read RNA-sequencing data

Operon prediction in prokaryotes is critical not only for understanding the regulation of endogenous gene expression, but also for exogenous targeting of genes using newly developed tools such as CRISPR-based gene modulation. A number of methods have used transcriptomics data to predict operons, based on the premise that contiguous genes in an operon will be expressed at similar levels. While promising results have been observed using these methods, most of them do not address uncertainty caused by technical variability between experiments, which is especially relevant when the amount of data available is small. In addition, many existing methods do not provide the flexibility to determine the stringency with which genes should be evaluated for being in an operon pair. We present OperonSEQer, a set of machine learning algorithms that uses the statistic and p-value from a non-parametric analysis of variance test (Kruskal-Wallis) to determine the likelihood that two adjacent genes are expressed from the same RNA molecule. We implement a voting system to allow users to choose the stringency of operon calls depending on whether your priority is high recall or high specificity. In addition, we provide the code so that users can retrain the algorithm and re-establish hyperparameters based on any data they choose, allowing for this method to be expanded as additional data is generated. We show that our approach detects operon pairs that are missed by current methods by comparing our predictions to publicly available long-read sequencing data. OperonSEQer therefore improves on existing methods in terms of accuracy, flexibility, and adaptability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of genotype‐calling methodologies on genome‐wide association and genomic prediction in polyploids

Abstract Discovery and analysis of genetic variants underlying agriculturally important traits are key to molecular breeding of crops. Reduced representation approaches have provided cost‐efficient genotyping using next‐generation sequencing. However, accurate genotype calling from next‐generation sequencing data is challenging, particularly in polyploid species due to their genome complexity. Recently developed Bayesian statistical methods implemented in available software packages, polyRAD, EBG, and updog, incorporate error rates and population parameters to accurately estimate allelic dosage across any ploidy. We used empirical and simulated data to evaluate the three Bayesian algorithms and demonstrated their impact on the power of genome‐wide association study (GWAS) analysis and the accuracy of genomic prediction. We further incorporated uncertainty in allelic dosage estimation by testing continuous genotype calls and comparing their performance to discrete genotypes in GWAS and genomic prediction. We tested the genotype‐calling methods using data from two autotetraploid species, Miscanthus sacchariflorus and Vaccinium corymbosum , and performed GWAS and genomic prediction. In the empirical study, the tested Bayesian genotype‐calling algorithms differed in their downstream effects on GWAS and genomic prediction, with some showing advantages over others. Through subsequent simulation studies, we observed that at low read depth, polyRAD was advantageous in its effect on GWAS power and limit of false positives. Additionally, we found that continuous genotypes increased the accuracy of genomic prediction, by reducing genotyping error, particularly at low sequencing depth. Our results indicate that by using the Bayesian algorithm implemented in polyRAD and continuous genotypes, we can accurately and cost‐efficiently implement GWAS and genomic prediction in polyploid crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Federated Learning for Efficient Condition Monitoring and Anomaly Detection in Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems

Detecting and localizing anomalies in cyber-physical systems (CPS) has become increasingly challenging as systems grow in complexity, particularly due to varying sensor reliability and node failures in distributed environments. While federated learning (FL) offers a foundation for distributed model training, existing approaches lack mechanisms to handle these CPS-specific challenges. This paper presents an enhanced FL framework that introduces three key innovations: adaptive model aggregation based on sensor reliability, dynamic node selection for resource optimization, and Weibull-based checkpointing for fault tolerance. Our framework enables reliable condition monitoring while addressing the computational and reliability challenges of industrial CPS deployments. Experiments on NASA Bearing and Hydraulic System Datasets demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art FL methods, achieving 99.5% AUC-ROC in anomaly detection and maintaining accuracy under node failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney (U) test confirms significant improvements (p < 0.05) in both detection accuracy and computational efficiency across diverse operational scenarios.1

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗

DOE OSTI2023

Compilation of a Solar Mirror Materials Database and an Analysis of Natural and Accelerated Mirror Exposure and Degradation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been conducting exposure experiments on solar reflectors for over four decades. Thousands of mirror samples from over one hundred suppliers have been exposed to and monitored in a range of relevant environments. These test conditions include outdoor test settings and several controlled laboratory environments. These samples have been rigorously individually characterized using a series of reflectance measurements, visual inspections, and in some cases, in-depth composition analysis to identify degradation modes, reflectance losses, and other mirror properties integral to understanding the solar reflector's life cycle. Here, this paper compiles the decades of measurement data into a concise statistical analysis. It includes exposure and degradation data for numerous reflector types, including secondary-surface reflector permutations of polymer and glass superstrates with silver and aluminum reflectors as well as front-surface reflectors. The results herein are intended to analyze environmental stressors and degradation trends among various historical and state-of-the-art solar reflectors. It may be used to support solar reflector design, effective testing methodology, and inform manufacturing decisions moving forward. Presented are the results of the compiled database and an initial analysis for degradation rate modeling using full-spectrum and wavelength-dependent approaches. The database is a growing resource hosted on a live, publicly accessible website. In conjunction with the analysis presented here, it provides a valuable resource to the solar reflector manufacturing and testing industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Refinement of Salt Dissolution Inhibitor Requirements (Final Report)

At Savannah River Site (SRS), High-Level Waste is stored in below-grade carbon steel tanks. This waste in part consists of sludge, salt cake, and/or supernate. Preparation of this waste for future processing involves dissolution of the salt cake layer. The salt dissolution process can create conditions that leave the carbon steel tanks susceptible to localized corrosion. The salt to be dissolved contains high concentrations of nitrate, that once released, create an environment that may be conducive to pitting corrosion and/or stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of carbon steel. The salt dissolution process also liberates interstitial liquid trapped between the salt crystals. This liquid is initially high in nitrite and hydroxide concentration. High pH and greater ratios of nitrite to nitrate act as inhibitors to minimize corrosion of carbon steel in high nitrate environments. However, as dissolution proceeds, the concentration of nitrate will increase, while the hydroxide and nitrite concentration of the interstitial liquid will deplete and become insufficient to prevent the onset of corrosion attack. Tank blending and addition of inhibitors are used to ensure adequate concentrations of hydroxide and nitrite. However, this is not desirable during salt dissolution as it can reduce process efficiency and increase the amount of waste that needs processing. It has been proposed that these corrosion control limits be revisited to evaluate the corrosion susceptibility of carbon steel in environments that more closely resemble current operating conditions at SRS. An experimental matrix was designed to evaluate the use of the pitting factor for supernate chemistries characteristic to SRS, particularly during the salt dissolution process. Two electrochemical methods were identified to determine the susceptibility of A537 and A285 low-carbon steels to pitting corrosion with this chemistry envelope at temperatures up to 75 °C. The predominant electrochemical test method was Cyclic Potentiodynamic Polarization (CPP) studies. Through CPP, the pitting factor was used, based on Hanford Site corrosion studies, to accurately identify pitting susceptibility within the compositional range studied with some conservatism. Additionally, sulfate was determined to have no statistically significant influence, at concentrations up to 0.6 M, on pitting behavior in more concentrated solutions where other aggressive species govern pitting susceptibility. Where CPP was inconclusive, Modified ASTM G192 was successfully used to evaluate pitting susceptibility conditions and allowed for a pass/fail result to be determined. In all cases, the pitting factor was determined to be applicable to the simulants tested, with this metric accurately predicting incidences in which pitting occurred. Based upon the findings in this work, a pitting factor of 1.2 is being proposed to build in a safety factor and remain consistent with the Hanford Site approach. Additionally, a minimum pH limit of 12 is proposed to ensure carbon steel passivity and localized corrosion the primary degradation mechanism. Susceptibility to SCC was evaluated using a reduced matrix of tests at 75 °C. No failures due SCC were observed at open circuit. In addition, tests polarized anodically by 200 mV only resulted in failures for trials with pitting factors less than 0.86. However, a test with a passing condition based upon the pitting factor metric (pitting factor = 1.40) did exhibit a failure with an applied potential of +300 mV vs. OCP. This result is contrary to the prediction based upon the pitting factor, however, a polarization of 300 mV, or even 200 mV, from open circuit is substantial. The relationship between these testing parameters and service environment/conditions and the desired level of conservatism in the metric should be further evaluated in the determination of the significance of this result. While the pitting factor accurately predicted susceptibility to SCC at temperatures up to 75 °C and with positive overpotentials up to 200 mV, the relatively small sample matrix and failure of a passing pitting factor with a 300 mV polarization resulted in an inconclusive determination of whether the pitting factor may be used for predicting susceptibility to SCC at temperatures between 50 °C and 75 °C. As such, additional testing is recommended to evaluate the validity of the pitting factor for SCC susceptibility prediction at temperatures between 50 °C and 75 °C.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗