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NASA NTRS2022

National Campaign (NC)-1 Strategic Conflict Management Simulation (X4) Final Report

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) enables highly automated, cooperative, passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services in and around urban areas. UAM is a subset of the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) concept under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and industry. The Strategic Conflict Management (SCM) Simulation, dubbed “X4”, was conducted between July 2021 and June 2022 by NASA with the FAA and industry to evolve the Provider of Services for UAM (PSU) that will be needed to ensure initial UAM operations can scale in the National Airspace System (NAS). The FAA UAM Concept of Operations (ConOps) v1 [1] served as an initial guiding document for the X4 airspace management system design to ensure the architecture supports testing of services provided by third-party service providers. To that end, the X4 architecture leveraged concepts and technologies developed for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) while also developing and testing new capabilities and services needed for UAM. The architecture included an initial prototype of the FAA-Industry Exchange Protocol (FIDXP), third-party services such as the PSUs, and Discovery and Synchronization Service (DSS), and other new services such as Demand-Capacity Balancing (DCB) to facilitate UAM strategic conflict management. During X4, NASA led discussions and collaborated with seven industry airspace partners to develop initial airspace management concepts for UAM that drove what would be tested and evaluated during the simulations. The initial capabilities defined for PSU leveraged UTM UAS Service Supplier (USS) as a starting point and evolved to meet UAM requirements. These discussions were also an opportunity for NASA to collaborate with industry to develop a set of initial Community-Based Rules (CBRs). These CBRs enabled how UAM traffic would be cooperatively managed among UAM operators. The collaborative, iterative process of developing CBRs with industry during X4 provided insight into the challenges involved and identified the need for a suitable and effective forum for future CBR development. In parallel with these discussions, NASA conducted a series of seven software sprints and two collaborative simulations with the airspace partners that built up in complexity. Over the course of the year, all seven partners successfully completed all the sprints by demonstrating the required capabilities. They also participated in the two collaborative simulations to demonstrate how multiple PSUs could work together in a collaborative, more complex environment with higher traffic density. The X4 simulation accomplished NASA's objectives and helped advance the development of the seven participating PSUs. The lessons learned provided insight into key elements of the UAM Notional Architecture from the FAA ConOps v1 [1] and UTM technologies when applied to UAM: - Having a Concept of Use (ConUse) defined prior to the activity would accelerate the time and effort from concept development to testing. - While the UAM Notional Architecture provided a starting point for a federated architecture that support services provided by third-party providers, the USS and PSU differed in their capability definitions for operational intent submission and sharing, conformance monitoring, airspace authorization, strategic conflict management, airspace constraints and dynamic replanning. - While existing DSS developed for UTM provided a way for PSU and other UAM services (such as DCB) to discover relevant operations from each other, additional complexity and challenges were found during X4 testing and illuminated the need for a more suitable solution for UAM. Industry can leverage the results of this demonstration to accelerate UAM requirements, CBRs, and standards development. The FAA and other government municipalities and agencies will be able to leverage results to inform future policies and identify additional gaps that require further analysis, moving toward operationalization of UAM.

Urban Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRS2015

SMC: SCENIC Model Control

NASAs Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program manages three active networks: the Near Earth Network, the Space Network, and the Deep Space Network. These networks simultaneously support NASA missions and provide communications services to customers worldwide. To efficiently manage these resources and their capabilities, a team of student interns at the NASA Glenn Research Center is developing a distributed system to model the SCaN networks. Once complete, the system shall provide a platform that enables users to perform capacity modeling of current and prospective missions with finer-grained control of information between several simulation and modeling tools. This will enable the SCaN program to access a holistic view of its networks and simulate the effects of modifications in order to provide NASA with decisional information. The development of this capacity modeling system is managed by NASAs Strategic Center for Education, Networking, Integration, and Communication (SCENIC). Three primary third-party software tools offer their unique abilities in different stages of the simulation process. MagicDraw provides UMLSysML modeling, AGIs Systems Tool Kit simulates the physical transmission parameters and de-conflicts scheduled communication, and Riverbed Modeler (formerly OPNET) simulates communication protocols and packet-based networking. SCENIC developers are building custom software extensions to integrate these components in an end-to-end space communications modeling platform. A central control module acts as the hub for report-based messaging between client wrappers. Backend databases provide information related to mission parameters and ground station configurations, while the end user defines scenario-specific attributes for the model. The eight SCENIC interns are working under the direction of their mentors to complete an initial version of this capacity modeling system during the summer of 2015. The intern team is composed of four students in Computer Science, two in Computer Engineering, one in Electrical Engineering, and one studying Space Systems Engineering.

Simulation↗
NASA NTRS1987

Space station evolution: Planning for the future

The need for permanently manned presence in space has been recognized by the United States and its international partners for many years. The development of this capability was delayed due to the concurrent recognition that reusable earth-to-orbit transportation was also needed and should be developed first. While the decision to go ahead with a permanently manned Space Station was on hold, requirements for the use of the Station were accumulating as ground-based research and the data from unmanned spacecraft sparked the imagination of both scientists and entrepreneurs. Thus, by the time of the Space Station implementation decision in the early 1980's, a variety of disciplines, with a variety of requirements, needed to be accommodated on one Space Station. Additional future requirements could be forecast for advanced missions that were still in the early planning stages. The logical response was the development of a multi-purpose Space Station with the ability to evolve on-orbit to new capabilities as required by user needs and national or international decisions, i.e., to build an evolutionary Space Station. Planning for evolution is conducted in parallel with the design and development of the baseline Space Station. Evolution planning is a strategic management process to facilitate change and protect future decisions. The objective is not to forecast the future, but to understand the future options and the implications of these on today's decisions. The major actions required now are: (1) the incorporation of evolution provisions (hooks and scars) in the baseline Space Station; and (2) the initiation of an evolution advanced development program.

Diaz, Alphonso V.↗
NASA NTRS2018

2040 Vision: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Materials and System Modeling and Simulation

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This talk will describe the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); associated critical gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations). This roadmap is a community consensus document and is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: i) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), ii) community-wide survey, and iii) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per key element) consisting on average 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. It is NASA's hope and desire that this roadmap provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

Multiscale Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Ancel, Ersin↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technology Investment Agendas to Expand Human Space Futures

The paper develops four alternative core-technology advancement specifications, one for each of the four strategic goal options for government investment in human space flight. Already discussed in the literature, these are: Explore Mars; Settle the Moon; accelerate commercial development of Space Passenger Travel; and enable industrial scale-up of Space Solar Power for Earth. In the case of the Explore Mars goal, the paper starts with the contemporary NASA accounting of ?55 Mars-enabling technologies. The analysis decomposes that technology agenda into technologies applicable only to the Explore Mars goal, versus those applicable more broadly to the other three options. Salient technology needs of all four options are then elaborated to a comparable level of detail. The comparison differentiates how technologies or major developments that may seem the same at the level of budget lines or headlines (e.g., heavy-lift Earth launch) would in fact diverge widely if developed in the service of one or another of the HSF goals. The paper concludes that the explicit choice of human space flight goal matters greatly; an expensive portfolio of challenging technologies would not only enable a particular option, it would foreclose the others. Technologies essential to enable human exploration of Mars cannot prepare interchangeably for alternative futures; they would not allow us to choose later to Settle the Moon, unleash robust growth of Space Passenger Travel industries, or help the transition to a post-petroleum future with Space Solar Power for Earth. The paper concludes that a decades-long decision in the U.S.--whether made consciously or by default--to focus technology investment toward achieving human exploration of Mars someday would effectively preclude the alternative goals in our lifetime.

human space flight↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Physics of the Cosmos and Cosmic Origins Technology Development Programs

NASA's Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) and Cosmic Origins (COR) Program Offices, established in 2011, reside at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The offices serve as the implementation arm for the Astrophysics Division at NASA Headquarters. We present an overview of the programs' technology development activities and technology investment portfolio, funded by NASA's Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) program. We currently fund 19 technology advancements to enable future PCOS and COR missions to help answer the questions "How did our universe begin and evolve?" and "How did galaxies, stars, and planets come to be?" We discuss the process for addressing community-provided technology gaps and Technology Management Board (TMB)-vetted prioritization and investment recommendations that inform the SAT program. The process improves the transparency and relevance of our technology investments, provides the community a voice in the process, and promotes targeted external technology investments by defining needs and identifying customers. The programs' goal is to promote and support technology development needed to enable missions envisioned by the National Research Council's (NRC) "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics" (NWNH) Decadal Survey report [1] and the Astrophysics Implementation Plan (AIP) [2]. These include technology development for dark energy, gravitational waves, X-ray and inflation probe science, and a 4m-class UV/optical telescope to conduct imaging and spectroscopy studies, as a post-Hubble observatory with significantly improved sensitivity and capability.

Technology Management Board (TMB)↗
NASA NTRS1989

Crew workload-management strategies - A critical factor in system performance

This paper reviews the philosophy and goals of the NASA/USAF Strategic Behavior/Workload Management Program. The philosophical foundation of the program is based on the assumption that an improved understanding of pilot strategies will clarify the complex and inconsistent relationships observed among objective task demands and measures of system performance and pilot workload. The goals are to: (1) develop operationally relevant figures of merit for performance, (2) quantify the effects of strategic behaviors on system performance and pilot workload, (3) identify evaluation criteria for workload measures, and (4) develop methods of improving pilots' abilities to manage workload extremes.

Hart, Sandra G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Technology Plan for Enabling Commercial Space Business

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Space Transportation Program is a customer driven, focused technology program that supports the NASA Strategic Plan and considers future commercial space business projections. The initial cycle of the Advanced Space Transportation Program implementation planning was conducted from December 1995 through February 1996 and represented increased NASA emphasis on broad base technology development with the goal of dramatic reductions in the cost of space transportation. The second planning cycle, conducted in January and February 1997, updated the program implementation plan based on changes in the external environment, increased maturity of advanced concept studies, and current technology assessments. The program has taken a business-like approach to technology development with a balanced portfolio of near, medium, and long-term strategic targets. Strategic targets are influenced by Earth science, space science, and exploration objectives as well as commercial space markets. Commercial space markets include those that would be enhanced by lower cost transportation as well as potential markets resulting in major increases in space business induced by reductions in transportation cost. The program plan addresses earth-to-orbit space launch, earth orbit operations and deep space systems. It also addresses all critical transportation system elements; including structures, thermal protection systems, propulsion, avionics, and operations. As these technologies are matured, integrated technology flight experiments such as the X-33 and X-34 flight demonstrator programs support near-term (one to five years) development or operational decisions. The Advanced Space Transportation Program and the flight demonstrator programs combine business planning, ground-based technology demonstrations and flight demonstrations that will permit industry and NASA to commit to revolutionary new space transportation systems beginning at the turn of the century and continuing far into the future.

Lyles, Garry M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA Laboratory Analysis for Manned Exploration Missions

The Exploration Laboratory Analysis (ELA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability Element under the NASA Human Research Program. ELA instrumentation is identified as an essential capability for future exploration missions to diagnose and treat evidence-based medical conditions. However, mission architecture limits the medical equipment, consumables, and procedures that will be available to treat medical conditions during human exploration missions. Allocated resources such as mass, power, volume, and crew time must be used efficiently to optimize the delivery of in-flight medical care. Although commercial instruments can provide the blood and urine based measurements required for exploration missions, these commercial-off-the-shelf devices are prohibitive for deployment in the space environment. The objective of the ELA project is to close the technology gap of current minimally invasive laboratory capabilities and analytical measurements in a manner that the mission architecture constraints impose on exploration missions. Besides micro gravity and radiation tolerances, other principal issues that generally fail to meet NASA requirements include excessive mass, volume, power and consumables, and nominal reagent shelf-life. Though manned exploration missions will not occur for nearly a decade, NASA has already taken strides towards meeting the development of ELA medical diagnostics by developing mission requirements and concepts of operations that are coupled with strategic investments and partnerships towards meeting these challenges. This paper focuses on the remote environment, its challenges, biomedical diagnostics requirements and candidate technologies that may lead to successful blood/urine chemistry and biomolecular measurements in future space exploration missions. SUMMARY The NASA Exploration Laboratory Analysis project seeks to develop capability to diagnose anticipated space exploration medical conditions on future manned missions. To achieve this goal, NASA will leverage existing point-of-care technology to provide clinical laboratory measurements in space. This approach will place the project on a path to minimize sample, reagent consumption, mass, volume and power. For successful use in the space environment, NASA specific conditions such as micro gravity and radiation, for example, will also need to be addressed.

Exploration Medical Capability↗
NASA NTRS1989

Demonstration of decomposition and optimization in the design of experimental space systems

Effective design strategies for a class of systems which may be termed Experimental Space Systems (ESS) are needed. These systems, which include large space antenna and observatories, space platforms, earth satellites and deep space explorers, have special characteristics which make them particularly difficult to design. It is argued here that these same characteristics encourage the use of advanced computer-aided optimization and planning techniques. The broad goal of this research is to develop optimization strategies for the design of ESS. These strategics would account for the possibly conflicting requirements of mission life, safety, scientific payoffs, initial system cost, launch limitations and maintenance costs. The strategies must also preserve the coupling between disciplines or between subsystems. Here, the specific purpose is to describe a computer-aided planning and scheduling technique. This technique provides the designer with a way to map the flow of data between multidisciplinary analyses. The technique is important because it enables the designer to decompose the system design problem into a number of smaller subproblems. The planning and scheduling technique is demonstrated by its application to a specific preliminary design problem.

Padula, Sharon↗
NASA NTRS1990

Activities of the Structures Division, Lewis Research Center

The purpose of the NASA Lewis Research Center, Structures Division's 1990 Annual Report is to give a brief, but comprehensive, review of the technical accomplishments of the Division during the past calendar year. The report is organized topically to match the Center's Strategic Plan. Over the years, the Structures Division has developed the technology base necessary for improving the future of aeronautical and space propulsion systems. In the future, propulsion systems will need to be lighter, to operate at higher temperatures and to be more reliable in order to achieve higher performance. Achieving these goals is complex and challenging. Our approach has been to work cooperatively with both industry and universities to develop the technology necessary for state-of-the-art advancement in aeronautical and space propulsion systems. The Structures Division consists of four branches: Structural Mechanics, Fatigue and Fracture, Structural Dynamics, and Structural Integrity. This publication describes the work of the four branches by three topic areas of Research: (1) Basic Discipline; (2) Aeropropulsion; and (3) Space Propulsion. Each topic area is further divided into the following: (1) Materials; (2) Structural Mechanics; (3) Life Prediction; (4) Instruments, Controls, and Testing Techniques; and (5) Mechanisms. The publication covers 78 separate topics with a bibliography containing 159 citations. We hope you will find the publication interesting as well as useful.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1995

NASA science communications strategy

In 1994, the Clinton Administration issued a report, 'Science in the National Interest', which identified new national science goals. Two of the five goals are related to science communications: produce the finest scientists and engineers for the 21st century, and raise scientific and technological literacy of all Americans. In addition to the guidance and goals set forth by the Administration, NASA has been mandated by Congress under the 1958 Space Act to 'provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination concerning its activities and the results thereof'. In addition to addressing eight Goals and Plans which resulted from a January 1994 meeting between NASA and members of the broader scientific, education, and communications community on the Public Communication of NASA's Science, the Science Communications Working Group (SCWG) took a comprehensive look at the way the Agency communicates its science to ensure that any changes the Agency made were long-term improvements. The SCWG developed a Science Communications Strategy for NASA and a plan to implement the Strategy. This report outlines a strategy from which effective science communications programs can be developed and implemented across the agency. Guiding principles and strategic themes for the strategy are provided, with numerous recommendations for improvement discussed within the respective themes of leadership, coordination, integration, participation, leveraging, and evaluation.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2003

Experiences with Lab-on-a-chip Technology in Support of NASA Supported Research

Under the auspices of the Microgravity Sciences and Application Department at Marshall Space Flight Center, we have custom designed and fabricated a lab-on-a-chip (LOC) device, along with Caliper Technologies, for macromolecular crystal growth. The chip has been designed to deliver specified proportions of up-to five various constituents to one of two growth wells (on-chip) for crystal growth. To date, we have grown crystals of thaumatin, glucose isomerase and appoferitin on the chip. The LOC approach offered many advantages that rendered it highly suitable for space based hardware to perform crystal growth on the International Space Station. The same hardware that was utilized for the crystal growth investigations, has also been used by researchers at Glenn Research Center to investigate aspects of microfluidic phenomenon associated with two-phase flow. Additionally, our LOCAD (Lab-on-a-chip Application Development) team has lent its support to Johnson Space Center s Modular Assay for Solar System Exploration project. At present, the LOCAD team is working on the design and build of a unique lab-on-a-chip breadboard control unit whose function is not commercially available. The breadboard can be used as a test bed for the development of chip size labs for environmental monitoring, crew health monitoring assays, extended flight pharmacological preparations, and many more areas. This unique control unit will be configured for local use and/or remote operation, via the Internet, by other NASA centers. The lab-on-a-chip control unit is being developed with the primary goal of meeting Agency level strategic goals.

Monaco, Lisa↗
NASA NTRS2005

Flight Testing an Integrated Synthetic Vision System

NASA's Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) project is developing technologies with practical applications to eliminate low visibility conditions as a causal factor to civil aircraft accidents while replicating the operational benefits of clear day flight operations, regardless of the actual outside visibility condition. A major thrust of the SVS project involves the development/demonstration of affordable, certifiable display configurations that provide intuitive out-the-window terrain and obstacle information with advanced pathway guidance for transport aircraft. The SVS concept being developed at NASA encompasses the integration of tactical and strategic Synthetic Vision Display Concepts (SVDC) with Runway Incursion Prevention System (RIPS) alerting and display concepts, real-time terrain database integrity monitoring equipment (DIME), and Enhanced Vision Systems (EVS) and/or improved Weather Radar for real-time object detection and database integrity monitoring. A flight test evaluation was jointly conducted (in July and August 2004) by NASA Langley Research Center and an industry partner team under NASA's Aviation Safety and Security, Synthetic Vision System project. A Gulfstream GV aircraft was flown over a 3-week period in the Reno/Tahoe International Airport (NV) local area and an additional 3-week period in the Wallops Flight Facility (VA) local area to evaluate integrated Synthetic Vision System concepts. The enabling technologies (RIPS, EVS and DIME) were integrated into the larger SVS concept design. This paper presents experimental methods and the high level results of this flight test.

Kramer, Lynda J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

GSFC Heliophysics Science Division 2008 Science Highlights

This report is intended to record and communicate to our colleagues, stakeholders, and the public at large about heliophysics scientific and flight program achievements and milestones for 2008, for which NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Heliophysics Science Division (HSD) made important contributions. HSD comprises approximately 261 scientists, technologists, and administrative personnel dedicated to the goal of advancing our knowledge and understanding of the Sun and the wide variety of domains that its variability influences. Our activities include Lead science investigations involving flight hardware, theory, and data analysis and modeling that will answer the strategic questions posed in the Heliophysics Roadmap; Lead the development of new solar and space physics mission concepts and support their implementation as Project Scientists; Provide access to measurements from the Heliophysics Great Observatory through our Science Information Systems, and Communicate science results to the public and inspire the next generation of scientists and explorers.

Gilbert, Holly R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

GSFC Heliophysics Science Division 2009 Science Highlights

This report is intended to record and communicate to our colleagues, stakeholders, and the public at large about heliophysics scientific and flight program achievements and milestones for 2009, for which NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Heliophysics Science Division (HSD) made important contributions. HSD comprises approximately 299 scientists, technologists, and administrative personnel dedicated to the goal of advancing our knowledge and understanding of the Sun and the wide variety of domains that its variability influences. Our activities include: Leading science investigations involving flight hardware, theory, and data analysis and modeling that will answer the strategic questions posed in the Heliophysics Roadmap; Leading the development of new solar and space physics mission concepts and support their implementation as Project Scientists; Providing access to measurements from the Heliophysics Great Observatory through our Science Information Systems; and Communicating science results to the public and inspiring the next generation of scientists and explorers.

Strong, Keith T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.

Safi, N.↗